JUNE 13, 2020 Vol LV No 24 ` 110
A SAMEEKSHA TRUST PUBLICATION www.epw.in
EDITORIALS The Kerala Experience A Dilemma for the Government People’s participation led by empowered local Neighbours in Strife governments and a strong public sector in health and FROM THE EDITOR’S DESK education are the most effective ways to fight a Subterranean Politics of Generosity pandemic like COVID-19. page 11 HT PAREKH FINANCE COLUMN Exiting the Lockdown Sustainably COMMENTARY Parliaments during Pandemics Challenges in the Midst of Unlike India’s Parliament, several parliaments across the COVID-19 Pandemic the world are committed to meet on set dates Parliaments in the Time of the Pandemic through the year and have switched to virtual or COVID-19 and Infectious Misinformation hybrid sessions. page 14 Marginalised Migrants and Bihar as an Area of Origin Economic Implication of a Novel Disease Enrolment in Higher Education Outbreak: Understanding Its Genesis An eligible enrolment ratio is proposed as a more Encroachments on the Waterbodies in TN judicious measurement to measure the access to higher REVIEW ARTICLE education, as it focuses on eligibility and optimises the Who Is Bharat Mata? On History, Culture and precision of the indicator. page 34 the Idea of India PERSPECTIVES Measuring Access, Quality and Relevance Return Migration to Bihar in Higher Education As one of the topmost states of origin for migrant SPECIAL ARTICLES workers, Bihar needs to tackle its unemployment rate ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Responses to the Forest Rights Act and increasing landlessness by generating farm and in Nagarahole non-farm employment. page 21 Impact of the Negative Interest Rate Policy on Emerging Asian Markets DISCUSSION The Power of Fiction Water Conservation and Religious Organisations Daniel Defoe’s A Journal of the Plague Year describes the CURRENT STATISTICS horrors of the Great Plague of London in 1665 and shows POSTSCRIPT fiction’s ability to tell the timeless truths of life. page 64 ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY june 13, 2020 | vol LV No 24
Exiting the Lockdown Sustainably EDITORIALS 10 To lockdown or “open up the economy” is a false dichotomy. A Dilemma for the Government ...... 7 — Avinash Persaud Neighbours in Strife ...... 8 Challenges in the Midst of the COVID-19 Pandemic FROM THE EDITOR’S DESK 11 Kerala’s experience shows how public investment in healthcare and a Subterranean Politics of Generosity ...... 9 participatory mode of governance with empowered local governments can help in pandemic mitigation. — Pinarayi Vijayan From 50 years ago ...... 9
Parliaments in the Time of the Pandemic HT PAREKH FINANCE COLUMN 14 Taking a cue from the parliaments worldwide that are functional during the Exiting the Lockdown Sustainably pandemic, modalities to ensure the functioning of parliamentary institutions —Avinash Persaud ...... 10 need to be devised. — Maansi Verma COMMENTARY COVID-19 and Infectious Misinformation Challenges in the Midst of the COVID-19 Pandemic—Pinarayi Vijayan ...... 11 18 Enabling people to identify unscientifi c claims and hoaxes is the way forward Parliaments in the Time of the Pandemic to build rational immunity to halt the infectious spread of misinformation. —Maansi Verma ...... 14 — Aniket Sule COVID-19 and Infectious Misinformation Marginalised Migrants and Bihar as an Area of Origin —Aniket Sule ...... 18 21 The return migration to Bihar in the wake of COVID-19 necessitates that the Marginalised Migrants and Bihar as an state generate farm and non-farm employment to address the crisis situation. Area of Origin — Avinash Kumar, Manish Kumar —Avinash Kumar, Manish Kumar ...... 21 Economic Implication of a Novel Disease Economic Implication of a Novel Disease Outbreak Outbreak: Understanding Its Genesis 25 It has become highly imperative to invest in total epidemic preparedness —Unmilan Kalita, Arup Kumar Hazarika, Rajiv Kumar Bora, Subhash Khanna, involving health and non-health interventions, research and development as Tapash Kumar Barman ...... 25 well as capacity building at all levels. — Unmilan Kalita, Arup Kumar Encroachments on the Waterbodies Hazarika, Rajiv Kumar Bora, Subhash Khanna & Tapash Kumar Barman in Tamil Nadu—S Rajendran ...... 27
Encroachments on the Waterbodies in Tamil Nadu REVIEW ARTICLE 27 Recurrent droughts in Tamil Nadu necessitate that its waterbodies be Who Is Bharat Mata? On History, Culture and the restored and protected, and encroachments are removed. — S Rajendran Idea of India—Nehru’s Enlightened Middle Way —Rajeev Bhargava ...... 29 Measuring Access, Quality and Relevance in Higher Education 34 It is proposed that the eligible enrolment ratio could be a better indicator to PERSPECTIVES measure the level of participation in education instead of the gross enrolment Measuring Access, Quality and Relevance in ratio, as highlighted by a study of fi ve-year data of 10 different countries. Higher Education — Pankaj Mittal, Anjali Radkar, Anitha Kurup, Ashwani Kharola & —Pankaj Mittal, Anjali Radkar, Anitha Kurup, Ashwani Kharola, Bhushan Patwardhan ...... 34 Bhushan Patwardhan SPECIAL ARTICLES Divergent Responses to the Forest Rights Act in Nagarahole Divergent Responses to the Forest Rights Act 38 The FRA’s success has been limited, as it has been unable to fully take into in Nagarahole: Disenchantment and Assertion account specifi c histories, socio-economic conditions, and political discourses —Priya Gupta ...... 38 of conservation advocates and Adivasi rights activists. — Priya Gupta Impact of the Negative Interest Rate Policy on Emerging Asian Markets: Impact of the Negative Interest Rate Policy An Empirical Investigation
ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY 46 The analysis provides an assessment of the domestic and global implications —Abhishek Anand, Lekha Chakraborty ...... 46 of the negative interest rate policy and how it differs from that of quantitative easing. — Abhishek Anand, Lekha Chakraborty DISCUSSION Water Conservation and Religious Organisations Water Conservation and Religious Organisations —Sachin Tiwale ...... 57 57 A response to Srirupa Bhattacharya’s article “Groundwater, Gurus, and CURRENT STATISTICS Governmentality: Seva in the Neo-liberal Development Regime in India” ...... 61 (EPW, 10 August 2019) — Sachin Tiwale POSTSCRIPT Fish for an Island—Shreya Yadav (63), Postscript Reading a Journal of the Plague Year during 63 Shreya Yadav refl ects on communities whose lives are intertwined with the the Lockdown—Sunil Macwan (64), ecology; Sunil Macwan sees literature’s power to vividly capture human Indian Global Cinema and the People’s History behaviour in times of crisis; Devashish Makhija on whether contemporary —Devashish Makhija (65), Last Lines (66) Indian cinema records the people’s history of our times; and Last Lines by Ponnappa. Letters ...... 4
LETTERS Issn 0012-9976
Ever since the fi rst issue in 1966, EPW has been India’s premier journal for Globalisation at Peril of people, ideas, capital, goods and ser- comment on current affairs vices but at a huge cost. and research in the social sciences. It succeeded Economic Weekly (1949–1965), he recent pitch by the Prime Minister Nonetheless, overdependence on inputs which was launched and shepherded by Sachin Chaudhuri, Tto push swadeshi and Atmanirbhar from international markets has brought who was also the founder-editor of EPW. Bharat to support local businesses has the supply chain to a complete halt, As editor for 35 years (1969–2004) Krishna Raj rekindled a worldwide debate on coun- especially a larger dependence on China. gave EPW the reputation it now enjoys. tering the forces of globalisation by The fragility of supply chains can be seen Editor adopting localisation as a measure for from the perspective of a global domino GOPAL GURU India’s economic revival. The outbreak effect. For example, China is a manufac- Executive Editor of an uninvited virus from China has turing hub of the world, and it gets most Lina Mathias not only crippled the global economy of its machinery from Germany. As China SENIOR Assistant editorS lubna duggal but has also muddled the global soci- is unable to set in the manufacturing INDU K etal structure. Deriving a comparison cycle, demand for new machinery from Sunipa Dasgupta with the Great Depression of 1929, Germany has reduced. This has further copy editorS jyoti shetty countries are quashing their growth affected the German trade with the rest Tejas Harad trajectories due to disruptions in supply of the European Union. Thus, the inter- Assistant editors chains and contractions in demand. connected world has certainly raised Nachiket kulkarni SHRUTI JAIN Isolation, self-suffi ciency and self-de- concerns on the concept of globalisa- pendence seem to have become the tion. The worst-hit industries are automo- editorIAL Assistant Malvika Sharad order of the day. biles, electronics and, more importantly, CHIEF FINANCE OFFICER Globalisation, which had attained drugs and medical supplies, which play J DENNIS RAJAKUMAR worldwide acceptance for its benefi ts a crucial role in fi ghting the pandemic. production in the early 1990s, has also contributed Many scholars have expressed that suneethi nair to the creation of unequal societies overdependence on one nation and Circulation KULDEEP NAWATHE with low growth and high debt. The interconnectedness have taken the world outcome has been the upsurge of issues to the infl exion point. They predict that Advertisement Manager Kamal G Fanibanda like the global fi nancial crisis, migrant from now on, the process of globalisation
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4 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly LETTERS national economy. Such a move can also is a prerequisite for avoiding the novel However, so is water for maintaining assure better inventory management and coronavirus infection; global advisories personal hygiene and sanitary living less dependence on the supply chain, suggest washing hands with soap and conditions, particularly in the current which reduces the transaction costs. water multiple times a day. But in India, scenario. Consequently, limiting the en- This may lead to a major shift in the where 163 million people do not have ac- titlement to water for drinking purpos- approach towards globalisation and the cess to clean water, handwashing for 20 es is counterintuitive. rise of economies based on the norms of seconds becomes a luxury for some. Second, the concerns about the uni- the regional social systems and security By magnifying the catastrophic con- versal access to water guaranteed by the networks. If the situation continues for sequences of an unsanitary environment, right has resurfaced in the context of the long, the global conglomerates may revert the current pandemic has reinforced the COVID-19 crisis. Philippe Cullet has to their practices of the times when glo- importance of availability of adequate argued that a prerequisite for securing balisation was not a popular word. water for personal hygiene. Concomi- universal entitlement is the provision of Countries may be led to a tussle for eco- tantly, it has also problematised India’s free water, particularly in India where nomic and political power in regions interpretation of the right to water, an an overwhelming majority of the popu- instigating the rise of a new form of im- interpretation that subsequently informs lation is poverty-stricken. However, since perialism. The future can only be specu- the state’s policies to address water scar- General Comment No 15 does not envi- lated. However, the current pandemic city. Whilst the Constitution does not sion the provision of free water, this ar- and the fi ght against it at every level readily provide the right to water, the gument has been a contended one. That have made countries realise the impor- Supreme Court has read it within the said, the Indian government has provid- tance of self-suffi ciency, which would lead right to life. Apart from conceiving it as ed free water through community infra- to the invention of localised economic set- a general entitlement to drinking water, structure for several decades, except in ups and less global economic dependence. available to all persons, the content of the cases where water is supplied through Amidst the confusions and beliefs, right is far from certain. The pandemic individual connections, that is, through some degree of globalisation is inevitable. problematises this rendition on two counts. pipelines to individual houses. However, But, going back to the business-as-usual First, it challenges the narrow inter- with the nationwide lockdown and sus- scenario highly unlikely. However, a pretation of the right as an obligation to pension of economic activities, for sev- sudden exodus from multilateral coop- provide water for drinking. Initially, the eral daily wage earners located in cities, eration will certainly have greater rami- Supreme Court treated the provision of even drinking water became economi- fi cations that need thoughtful considera- unpolluted water as a prerequisite to ful- cally inaccessible. Consequently, in the tion. On the contrary, instead of a fall- fi lment of the right to life. However, sub- current scenario, it is essential that the back, it will be pragmatic for economies sequent decisions focused only on the state provides free water, regardless of to restructure and prioritise. Targeted provision of unpolluted drinking water whether it is a community source or an restructuring can reduce overdepend- as pivotal to improving public health. individual piped connection. In fact, to ence and push for better control in stabi- Unfortunately, this narrow interpretation ensure effective social distancing, the fo- lising economies. has also paved its way into government cus should be on expanding the network of Globalisation is no doubt a necessary policy. The recent Jal Shakti Abhiyaan, individual water connections. If economic evil; however, the question remains if an ambitious programme launched to drudgery caused due to the lockdown is we are playing the right cards with it. address water scarcity in India, targets precluding certain sections of the popu- Our focus was only to channelise the the provision of piped drinking water to lation from securing access to water, it factors of production across borders that all by 2024. Pertinently, this rendition of undermines the universality of the right. are very vulnerable currently. The world the right to water by the Indian judiciary The argument that we should revisit economies need to rethink and re-strate- fails the United Nation Committee on and rethink a more comprehensive enti- gise in terms of agreements and opening Economic, Social and Cultural Rights tlement under the right to water is a ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY up their borders. General Comment No 15, which conceives long-standing one. However, the pan- S Subramanian, Meha Pant, the right as a universal entitlement to demic has revealed an urgent necessity Ashutosh Srivastava adequate water for personal and domestic to do so, disregarding which could be Gurugram use, including personal sanitation. life-threatening. Undoubtedly, clean drinking water is Kanika Jamwal Rethinking Right to Water essential to nurturing public health. Sonipat
vailability and accessibility of ade- EPW Engage Aquate water is critical for maintain- ing optimum sanitation and leading a The following article has been published in the past week in the EPW Engage section (www.epw.in/engage). healthy life. However, it has taken a (1) Changes to Labour Laws by State Governments Will Lead to Anarchy in the Labour Market —K R Shyam global pandemic to make this fact evi- Sundar and Rahul Suresh Sapkal dent. Maintaining adequate hand hygiene
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6 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly june 13, 2020
A Dilemma for the Government
The response to the pandemic has aggravated both the economic as well as the health crises.
fter a prolonged lockdown of close to three months, sharp decline since November 2018. There is going to be a sharp which started on 24 March 2020, there does not seem to decline in output in the fi rst quarter of FY 2020–21 resulting A be any clarity within the government on when to unlock from the economy coming to a grinding halt during the lockdown the economy, and that is because the Covid-19 curve for India is period. One obvious signal of this decline is the index of industrial still at some distance from its peak. production, which fell sharply across sectors in March 2020. So, a Not only has the lockdown not managed to control the severe supply disruption has come riding on a prolonged aggregate pandemic, it has infl icted severe economic loss in terms of jobs, demand slowdown, a deadly combination for an economic crisis. lives and livelihoods of a vast majority of Indians, particularly In all likelihood, there is going to be a contraction of output in the poor and the vulnerable. It is yet another case where those who this fi nancial year, which many institutions, including the are the least responsible for a problem are made to suffer the most. World Bank, have predicted for India. Even if the lockdown is Unlocking without a counter health strategy in place would be at lifted, the economy cannot come back to life just like that, the risk of infections rising at an alarming rate. But, a prolonged particularly for an economy that is facing a structural crisis rather lockdown would be at the risk of huge unemployment for a long than a mere cyclical slowdown. period, coupled with distress-driven loss of lives and livelihoods. What are the sources of this structural crisis? Rural demand The lockdown has led to a colossal waste of economic resources. is by far the most important factor that has kept the aggregate Unemployment, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian demand low during the pre-Covid-19 crisis period. The average Economy data, increased more than threefold during the lock- agricultural growth during the Narendra Modi government down with an open unemployment rate of a whopping 26%. The years (including the second term with the second advanced burden of unemployment fell disproportionately on women, estimates taken into account) has been 2.8% as opposed to the with four out of every 10 employed losing their jobs during the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)-II’s term when it was 4.3%. Rural lockdown as against three out of 10 employed among men. It is real wages—agricultural and non-agricultural alike—have not just unemployment that women workers had to face during been almost stagnant during this regime and have declined in the lockdown, there have also been an increase in cases of absolute terms since April 2019. Since the post-lockdown data domestic violence. The axe fell on Dalits too, whose employment is not available, it is anybody’s guess that these would have declined by 36% as opposed to 23% among the upper castes. fallen further. With rural demand being low and no counter- The plight of the migrant workers compounds this misery. In acting force, the demand for industrial commodities has also terms of access to income and food, according to the Stranded suffered, which shows in its degree of capacity utilisation Workers Action Network, about 78% of stranded workers have being at its lowest since the UPA-I years. This affects the in- ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY not been paid during the lockdown, with half of them having come in the urban areas, both in the organised and unorgan- less than just a day of rations as on 26 April 2020. ised sectors, since they are driven by industrial production. Apart from high open unemployment, the people who have This situation of low demand could have been mitigated (in the suffered the most are the self-employed and casual workers, absence of government intervention) if there were external constituting 77% of the total workforce, with median monthly demand, but that has plummeted even more drastically as a earnings of `8,000 and `5,000, respectively. For most, these result of the global slowdown. numbers would have fallen to zero as a result of the closure of the Unfortunately, the Modi government’s response has been economy. With these levels of income, the likelihood of them grossly inadequate, despite the tall claims to the contrary. The having enough savings to survive three months is quite low. Atmanirbhar package, which claims to be 10% of the gross do- This heavy unemployment and loss of livelihoods came mestic product, actually has only 1.5% of the substantial fi scal against the backdrop of a severe economic slowdown for eight expenditure, with the rest 8.5% in the form of liquidity injection straight quarters even before the Covid-19 crisis began. Credit and loan guarantees, which are all at best indirect measures to growth, the bellwether of economic activity, has been on a potentially push up investment. Any amount of injection of credit
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 7 EDITORIALS is not going to increase private investment, which is demand level lockdown with aggressive health measures to control the constrained and not credit constrained currently. spread. India seems to have adopted the worst combination of a There have been two successful models of fi ghting the pandemic. macro lockdown with micro testing that was bound to fail. One, which South Korea attempted, is mass testing, tracing and What is required at this stage, if we seriously want to address the isolating without a lockdown, and the other is what China, Vietnam, twin crises, is taking a balanced position that treats both the crises or, closer home, Kerala implemented, that is, a region-specifi c micro equally and develops measures to address both simultaneously.
Neighbours in Strife
India and Nepal should resolve their border dispute through diplomacy and negotiations.
ndo–Nepal relations are in the limelight, but for the wrong not live divided lives. In fact, they share sociocultural similarities reasons. Both countries have entered into a dispute that has and relations. On both sides, they have been left in want of the Ifl ared up once again over a territory that has mostly remained government’s attention in terms of region-specifi c development out of public view. On 8 May 2020, the defence minister of India initiatives. In fact, due to open borders, often the relationship be- inaugurated an 80-kilometre (km) road going up to the Lipulekh tween the two sides is described as that of roti–beti, that is, sharing pass—the trijunction of India, China, and Nepal. India, for various bread and marital bonds. The footbridges over Kali river connect reasons—“strategic, religious and trade”—considers this high people who use the markets on either side. Students from Nepal altitude road important. From the Indian point of view, it facilitates cross over for tuitions to the Indian side and Indians use Nepali connectivity until the China border and cuts down considerably network for phone and radio, with poor connectivity existing on the travel time of the Kailas–Manasarovar Yatra. However, the ques- their side. Both countries are a source of remittance for each other. tion remains as to what was the urgency to digitally inaugurate In such a scenario, the dispute gets further fl ared up, perhaps a still incomplete road at a time when India is struggling with due to political compulsions and sometimes irresponsible state- the COVID-19 crisis, and moreover, when it had already entered ments. The Indian Army chief’s contention that Nepal raised the into a confl ict with another neighbouring country. The news of dispute at the “behest of an external force,” referring to China, the Chinese incursion and scuffl es breaking out between the was answered with a jibe by the Nepal Prime Minister that the troops of the two countries in Ladakh was fi ltering in from 5 May. “Indian virus looks more lethal than Chinese.” Nepal since then Both India and Nepal lay claim over the Kalapani region. Under has released a new map that includes all the disputed territo- the Sugauli Treaty of 1816, the areas falling east of Kali river ries, and had gone ahead with its efforts to legitimise it through were to belong to the Kingdom of Nepal and west of the river a constitutional amendment. A staunch anti-India stance has formed the Kumaon region of British India. The origin of the river, strengthened the current Prime Minister’s waning popularity however, remained a matter of mutual discord. Nepal maintains and political position. This sentiment took deeper roots in that the headwaters lie in Limpiyadhura mountains, hence Nepal after India publicly expressed its dissatisfaction with the claiming the entire stretch downwards as theirs. India claims that new Nepal constitution in 2015, and extended “tacit support” to the river originates from down south in Kalapani, hence the a fi ve-month-long blockade halting supplies to the landlocked name Kali, and thus, it is from here that the treaty applies. It has country. During the present quandary, facing serious challenges considered this area as part of Pithoragarh district in Uttara- from within the party, the Prime Minister’s “nationalist” stand, khand. Nepal had so far claimed 35 square (sq) km of Kalapani looking more justifi ed due to India’s unrelenting approach, has area. However, it is now offi cially staking a claim on a 370 sq km given him a new lease of political life. area comprising Limpiyadhura, Lipulekh, and Kalapani. India and Nepal share vast open borders. Rivers demarcate This disagreement has surfaced time and again. It came to the many hundred of kilometres of these borders, even though
ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY fore earlier in 2019 when, in a newly published map, India included they are not known to follow borders. Being rivers, they keep the disputed area within its borders. In 2016, Nepal again showed changing their courses, giving rise to territorial disputes. It is its displeasure when India and China entered a bilateral treaty indeed ironical that under the same political leadership in India for trade through the Lipulekh pass. It also raised the issue after and Nepal, the 5,040 megawatt Pancheshwar dam on the Kali the Mahakali Treaty of 1996 with India that envisaged the river, the world’s tallest, and slated to submerge and adversely Pancheshwar multipurpose hydro project over the Kali river. It affect a land mass not less in comparison with the contested was subsequently agreed in 2014 that the matter would be area, was pushed for. This also raises a question about how the resolved through discussions at the foreign secretary level meet- modern nation states are looking at their ecology and people ings. This has not happened so far. During the current confl ict, striving at the boundaries. Their unresolved and long-standing while India deferred such a meeting until the pandemic passes, border issues cannot have quick and hardline nationalist solu- Nepal, despite showing inclination for it, went ahead with what tions. What is needed is the sustained process of negotiations India has called as “unjustifi ed cartographic assertion.” and more equal bilateral relations that would involve not just Mutually cooperative relationships are the basis of survival in security and trade concerns, but encapsulate such a distinctive diffi cult mountain terrains. Villagers on both sides of the border do and multifaceted relationship that India and Nepal share.
8 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly FROM THE EDITOR’S DESK
Subterranean Politics of Generosity
he “gesture of generosity” has undeniably been visible in The act of generosity may operate at the subterranean level in the public sphere when the novel coronavirus crisis is ways that are not always obvious. It could be argued that such Tcausing devastation to people. The act of generosity may an act may not be devoid of politics. be judged as an activity that has an inherent quality of being Philanthropic persons may not demand from the recipient of innocent; innocence on the grounds that it is not motivated by generosity a public acknowledgement of such gestures. However, the politics of achieving personal or party interests. Thus, any they can indirectly command such public recognition of help from efforts made by either an individual or organisations to the benefi ciaries of the philanthropic activism. The act of com- support the most adversely affected people, particularly the manding recognition is necessarily driven by hegemonic spells migrant labourers at this moment, are considered to be of gestures, which make use of moral coercion redundant. This conspicuously voluntary, and thus, beyond the sphere of nar- is because the benefi ciaries of generosity do come forward spon- row political inclinations. Arguably, it is the moral force that is taneously and publicly acknowledge the help that they receive constitutive of the “virtue” of generosity. It is the element of from the help giver. The ethics of giving help may not form the virtuosity that can possibly assign a distinct moral advantage part of the original scheme of a philanthropist, but it is likely to of innocence to the act of generosity. be mired in subtle forms of politics that are based on the unequal Such a manifest “gesture of generosity,” however, has led to social relationship between the donor and the recipient of help. political debate, if not controversy, involving some of the spokes- Since philanthropic activism is based on the perpetual asym- persons of the Government of Maharashtra. Doubts were cast metry between the help giver and help receiver, such activism about the innocence of such an act. addresses only the aspect of reducing human suffering and thus However, such gestures do have unintended consequences to restoring surviving value to human life; life that is secured by the extent that they lead such spokespersons to believe that such such help. This is a necessary condition, but not a suffi cient con- gestures do cast aspersions on the administrative ability of the dition to possess a moral good such as dignity. The dignity of government to reach out to the needy people in time. It is generally human beings does not fl ow from external help but from an in- true that the act of generosity starts working when the welfare ner sense of self-worth. Assigning worth to oneself results from state fi nds itself in a crippling position to deliver on the distribu- the power of labour. But such a transcendental leap into the tive functions. Put differently, an “active welfare state” with an higher regions of dignity as mentioned above cannot be ex- abundance of resources would eliminate the need for generosity. plained merely with the aid of philanthropic activism. In an unusual circumstance, such as the current crisis, has Dignity, which takes human beings into the higher moral region, pushed the possibility of solution or redressal much beyond the can be obtained through the creative investment of labour. The value capacity, calculation and imagination of the state. It is this unu- of labour acquires dignity when it is obtained from the employ- sual circumstance that has created the background condition for er’s acknowledgement that the workers are not a liability but an philanthropic activism. The limits of both the central as well as asset. That they do not ride on someone’s gesture of generosity. state governments are further exposed by the directives issued by The employers, for example, from Punjab, Maharashtra and the Supreme Court, which has made some stunning interventions Karnataka are keen to invite the workers back into these states. But regarding the plight of the migrant workers. The Court’s inter- such an invitation presupposes only a notional or hypothetical ventions also refl ect on the misplaced emphasis by political condition within which the workers can realise their self-worth. The actors who seek to prioritise politics of capturing electoral power workers will have to categorically state that they have a moral right over the ethical responsibility to address the distress of the to dignity. And such rights have to be protected both by the private migrant labourers and fi ght the coronavirus crisis. employers and the state governments by providing a dignifi ed We still need to sort out basically two important questions. quality of life. One is expecting the employers to learn appropri- First, is it possible to disentangle an act of generosity from politics? ate lessons from the present crisis that has caused devastation to ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Or does philanthropic activism operate at the subterranean the lives of millions of workers. level? Second, how effectively and adequately philanthropic activism can address the question of workers’ dignity?
From 50 Years Ago decision to invade Cambodia yet another at- American forces in Vietnam at least till the tempted short-cut to end the war in Vietnam? Presidential election in 1972.
Some political observers maintain that Nixon This theory could be valid, but looking at the is cynical enough to have decided that the pattern of American failure in Vietnam, it is more Vol V, No 24 june 13, 1970 Vietnamisation programme was going badly than likely that the American Administration and, seeing that there was no prospect of Ameri- supplied with the usual, optimistic, quick-kill advice Short Walk to Long War can withdrawal without handing over Vietnam of their military advisers, saw the overthrow of The American intervention in Vietnam has to the Vietcong, calculated that the only way to Sihanouk as a heaven-sent opportunity to wipe been one long exercise in wishful thinking. It go back on his pledges of a phased American out Vietcong strongholds in Cambodia and, displays a long, dreary list of short-cuts which withdrawal was to expand the war into Cambodia. hopefully, infl ict a grievous and possibly mortal have failed to pacify Vietnam. Was Nixon’s This would give him a plausible excuse to keep blow to Vietcong operations in Vietnam.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 9 HT PAREKH FINANCE COLUMN
First, we need a way of identifying Exiting the Lockdown Sustainably safe people and those at risk. We can do this through a combination of iden- tifying the safest population segments Avinash Persaud and testing them. Yes, we need suffi - cient test kits and modalities of testing xiting the lockdown before a vac- opening up is being greeted with relief and perhaps certifi cation. But, besides cine is available or herd immunity and not much analysis. those with existing respiratory issues, Eis in effect is a problem, especially There is a clue as to what we need the latest data suggests that key risk because it appears that up to 50% of to do to live with COVID-19, before a factors are age (the over 65s) and being people with COVID-19 could be asymp- vaccine is made available. Many of overweight (a body mass index of tomatic—they could have and carry those most vulnerable to falling off the over 40), two risk factors that are easy the disease without symptoms. In the social, economic, and psychological to screen. British Medical Journal’s review of data edge because they are now incapable of Second, we need to lay down the on infections in Wuhan, China and other providing for themselves and their criteria of a safe activity, in particular, studies of the data from Italy, 78% of loved ones are often those least likely to physical distancing and wear protocols, carriers were asymptomatic. The only have complications from catching hygiene practices, and limiting points of way of identifying asymptomatic carriers COVID-19—the young and healthy. human contact with vulnerable people. would be through widespread testing Many of those we need to protect, the It may be possible to make much of what or contact tracing. Exiting the lock- elderly and sick, are often those least we do safe using protocols and technology. down in the presence of asymptomatic affected by a lockdown because they We would need to consider how this is people before a vaccine or herd immunity were not working full time. Some are monitored and enforced. will send us back into lockdown, again still receiving their pension cheques. Third, we need to ensure that safe and again. Further, forcing families to remain in people are doing safe things in a safe Not exiting the lockdown is a prob- small spaces, near the old or with those way beyond work, when they return lem too. No amount of drama in the who need psychological outlets, may home or how they get to work. We would economic statistics—a doubling of create new risks. Lockdown is a blunt require plans to segment homes and unemployment in a few weeks, 100% instrument. transport and ensure that risky people declines in government revenues or To lockdown or “open up the econ- and safe people are kept secure and iso- revenues in travel-related sectors, a omy” is a false dichotomy. More useful lated from everyone else. There will be contraction of the global economy— distinctions are between (i) people who many homes where such segmentation is describes the stark reality that a vast are predominantly safe and those who not possible, and then we may have to majority of the population in develop- are at risk, and (ii) activities that are pull into service for the period of this ing countries do not have the savings to predominantly safe and those that are emergency the private accommodation survive without income for even short risky. We need to exit the lockdown after and transport services currently lying periods. Not all countries are like a period long enough to see those with idle in the tourism sector. Norway. While the bloody protests in symptoms, treat and isolate them, and This plan is about three main things. the United States refl ect deep iniqui- carry out contact tracing. But we can First and foremost, it is about public ties, it would be hard to conjure up only sustainably exit the lockdown by health and keeping people safe post- circumstances more likely to tear apart ensuring that (i) safe people are doing lockdown. Second, it is about exiting the social fabric of our societies than to safe things in safe ways, and (ii) people the full lockdown, bringing back activ- ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY make a large part of the population at risk are shielded and remaining in ity and stopping the spread of severe unemployed and hungry and take away safe places, doing only safe things. risks to society. Third, it is about their everyday freedoms. Within these two guard rails, a signifi - breathing hope and killing despair. It There is an essential psychological cant amount of economic activity can is a plan that engages all and gives and time dimension too. The Brits return, saving jobs, livelihoods, and the all a sense that they are doing some- may invoke the spirit of “Dunkirk” at revenues necessary to provide the essen- thing positive about their lives and the beginning of the fi rst lockdown, tial services society needs. circumstances. but not after repeated, prolonged lock- This exit plan is what we are doing in the Caribbean. The region has been downs and depressing uncertainty as to Avinash D Persaud ([email protected]) is when or if this will change. Dunkirk devastated economically, but has had Special Envoy to the Prime Minister of occurred right at the beginning of a good lockdown health-wise, and is Barbados, who has been chairman of the the war, not amid its destruction. No destined to have a good return. The plan regional grouping of Caribbean nati ons, wonder, then, that the prospect of requires three things. CARICOM, during the crisis.
10 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly COMMENTARY
invested in its people by instituting a Challenges in the Midst of universal schooling system and a com- prehensive public health system. It also the COVID-19 Pandemic set up a social security net for the poor, including providing social security pen- sions for informal workers. Pinarayi Vijayan Kerala’s successes in human develop- ment became well known to the world The COVID-19 pandemic has he COVID-19 pandemic has created by the 1970s itself. Kerala held a lesson necessitated a rethinking of the a great divide in history. The global for the rest of India with regard to the contours of state intervention, Tcapitalist system has been thor- centrality of land reform and the role of oughly shaken by the pandemic. This is the state in improving public facilities. especially in social sectors like not the fi rst time in its history that capi- However, the reactionary ideology of health. The argument for rolling talism has faced such a crisis. The Great neo-liberalism, that emerged globally in back the state has become Depression of the 1930s was a classic the 1970s, gradually took India onto a questionable even among demonstration of the systemic crisis- different policy trajectory. This ideology proneness of capitalism and the conse- fi rst emerged in countries like United mainstream commentators. quences of the domination of speculative Kingdom and the United States and was Kerala’s experience shows how fi nance capital over production. To save later concretised into the liberalisation, public investment in healthcare the capitalist system from coll apse, the privatisation and globalisation agenda in Keynesian concept of comprehensive many countries. We know that these pol- and a participatory mode of socialisation of investment was sought to icies had disastrous impacts on people’s governance with empowered be undertaken in the developed world. livelihoods and exposed global capital- local governments can help in Nation states intervened with massive ism to new forms of crisis as in 2008. pandemic mitigation. A truly public investment, raised levels of employ- India began a partial liberalisation of ment and evaded the recession. After the economy in the 1980s, but it was federal set-up with shared World War II, Keynesian demand man- after 1991 that it fully embraced the new responsibilities between the agement and the provision of a host of strategy. After 1991, state intervention in centre and states is better suited welfare measures—by the state—were the economy was challenged. Liberali- to deal with situations like the central to the economic policies in the sation, privatisation and globalisation developed world. Government spending became offi cial policies. The role of the present one rather than a in the social sectors rose and taxation public sector was scaled down from its centralised system. became more progressive. Such a con- commanding heights. Fiscal responsi- juncture was highly favourable to growth bility legislations and tax concessions for and employment generation. This period the rich adversely affected the ability of was also marked by a shift in the balance governments to intervene and invest in of class forces in favour of the working sectors like health and education. As a class, which wrested major concessions result, inequalities and exclusions in from the ruling class by making use of sectors like health and education grew their stronger bargaining position. rapidly. The poor were pushed out of an In India, however, the post-war chall- already debilitated public health system.1 ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY enges as a newly independent nation Their healthcare costs rose. Infectious were more fundamental. It needed, at diseases like malaria, which were eradi- the least, land reform, major public cated earlier, reappeared. investments in infrastructure, education In other words, through the 1990s till and health as well as the institution of a now, India’s public health system was comprehensive social security system. already crumbling due to a lack of public Unfortunately, the political nature of investment and political commitment to ruling classes in India ensured that these positive social change. As a result, when measures were stymied. This is where the pandemic hit India, its health system states like Kerala stood apart and suc- as a whole was vulnerable and unable to ceeded. Land reforms in Kerala weak- meet the new challenge. Pinarayi Vijayan ([email protected]) ened upper-caste landlordism in a way In contrast, we in Kerala were instill- is the chief minister of Kerala. no other state could. The state also ing new vigour into our public health
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 11 COMMENTARY system. Over the last four years, we by the previous government. As a result, pandemic. At the same time, a strong were able to transform our public health whenever a left government comes to public sector in health and education is system through our health mission power in Kerala, its initial task is to necessary for this decentralised model called Aardram. As part of the mission, repair the damages and rebuild the insti- to work well. Only when all these three we built new public health infrastruc- tutions. This has been a long-standing pillars are strong enough will the ture, increased the number of doctors, developmental problem in the state. Yet, participatory strategy of tackling the nurses and care staff, deepened commu- after the constitutional amendments, pandemic be successful. This is the nar- nity management and improved hygiene Kerala made pioneering strides in the rative which the Kerala experience places and sanitation. Our experience is that decentralised form of governance, inclu- before the world at large. this strategy has been hugely successful. ding implementation of the peoples’ plan We saw it fi rst when Kerala warded off programme. As a result, there is consid- New Challenges the Nipah virus outbreak of 2018. The erable community participation in the The Kerala society and its government moderate success, as yet, we have achi- planning process, which has enri ched have received generous praise from eved in confronting COVID-19 is another the process of decentralisation of power. many parts of the world. While we are proof of the strategy’s success. It is this strong system of participatory happy that our narrative is getting ac- governance that has helped Kerala in ceptance, we do also recognise that this Importance of Local Governments the containment measures related to the is not the time to rest on our laurels. We In times of pandemics like COVID-19, the COVID-19 pandemic. Let us look at just are constantly keeping a watch and relationship between the state and the one example. The state could effectively receiving suggestions from all stake- people needs to be strong, trustworthy implement home quarantine (we prefer holders. We are taking the process of and organic. This will not be possible in to call it home observation). Here, the consultations outside the usual scheme a centralised system of governance, elected members of the local govern- of governance by having a constant wherein even minor decisions are taken ments and offi cials of line departments dialogue with persons who are settled at the highest tier of the government, acted not merely as enforcers, but also abroad, leaders of industry and experts which is the farthest from the people. Our as caregivers. Strong messages about in the fi eld of health and education. economist friends will tell us that such a giving due care to people in home quar- Being an early starter in inclusive and policy will be violative of the principle antine, and not ostracising or stigmatis- universal school education, Kerala’s of subsidiarity, which states that the tier ing them, could be passed on effectively human capital is spread across the globe. closest to the people can discharge certain to the public at large under the leader- The remittances our diaspora send in functions more effectively. In our view, ship of local governments. A top-down have been a major catalyst for consump- when you are faced with a contagious model would have failed here. tion expenditure and economic growth disease that could quickly attain the stage Besides the leading role assigned to in Kerala. At present, many of our country- of community spread, the best strategy local governance institutions, Kerala could men working abroad are facing an to contain it is a participatory mode of also utilise the services of community unprecedented crisis. Almost 9% of governance. The prime role in this is to volunteers. These volunteers were a recent Kerala’s population lives outside the be discharged by the local governments addition to the state’s participatory system state. The number is approximately 30 with community participation. of managing natural calamities. The lakh. We fully recognise their desire to Historically, Kerala has had a very strong Community Volunteer Corps formed in return to their homes. The Government system of decentralised governance. The 2020 now has a strength of approximately of Kerala is committed to ensuring the attempts to build and stren gthen the 3,37,000 individuals who are physically welfare of persons who wish to return. grass-roots level democracy in the state and mentally fi t to handle emergency However, circumstances have forced us precede the 73rd and 74th constitutional situations. The aim is to have one volun- to put in place certain regulatory mecha- amendments. Legislative efforts in this teer per 100 population. This will work out nisms with the aim of containing the ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY regard started as early as 1957 when the to having a 3,43,000 strong community spread of the pandemic. state elected its fi rst communist govern- of volunteers. The state government is in The state government has also demon- ment led by E M S Namboo diripad. How- the process of imparting professional strated its commitment to assist “guest ever, the attempts to decentralise gov- training to these volunteers to equip workers” from other states who have ernance were not very successful at that them to handle natural calamities and been working in Kerala in search of a time, as it met with stiff resistance from the pandemic. livelihood. We support their emotional the dominant sections of the society. The point to be emphasised is the desire to go back to their home states Further, these policies could not be taken following. A state or a central government and be with their families. Simultane- to their logical conclusion because the can give broad directions and guide- ously, we are also taking steps to ensure left parties were in and out of offi ce. lines, but people’s participation under jobs for those among them who want to Every right-wing government that would the leadership of empowered local gov- stay back. follow a left government would signifi - ernments seems to be the most effective In the midst of the pandemic, the cantly dilute and undo the gains made strategy to contain the spread of the Government of Kerala also requested
12 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly COMMENTARY the domain experts to assess the losses expand employment. We are of the con- The experience of the pandemic to the state’s economy due to the sidered opinion that public spending in should act as a game changer in assess- pandemic. It has been estimated that social sectors and generating demand in ing the role of the state vis-à-vis the mar- the state’s gross domestic product (GDP) the economy through capital works have ket. Public sector intervention in social will face a downslide of approximately to be taken up by tapping resources in and economic sectors cannot be treated `1 lakh crore. Its growth rate is estimated the market. We will have to focus on as an avoidable evil. Borrowing by the to face a precipitous fall from around 7% growth and gradually grow out of the state cannot always be a vice. Growth to less than 2%. The worst-case scenario debt. The protagonists of fi scal ortho- that is induced through borrowing can projections estimate the economic growth doxy across the world seem to have real- have positive multiplier effects. Empow- falling in the negative territory (see KSPB ised this, at least temporarily. ered states and local governments 2020; GIFT 2020). Our country should not remain hesi- should be equal partners with the centre This implies that the own tax revenue tant as we have a very large section in a cooperative federal set-up. Only of the state will suffer a major decline. (almost 90%) of the labour force in the they, together, can encourage invest- Experts have estimated that it will be in informal sector with little or no social ment and provide social security. This the range of `25,000 crore to `30,000 security. Till the economy recovers, needs to be our way ahead. crore. Yet, due to the pandemic-related incomes need to be put in their hands so obligations, the expenditure, especially that demand defi ciency does not hold Note in the social sector, will be above the back economic growth. Equal care needs 1 There are empirical evidences of growing ine- budget estimates. Cutting expenditure to be given to address supply-side bottle- qualities in income and wealth (Piketty 2017; Chancel and Piketty 2017). In the Indian context, to meet defi cit targets will have a cata- necks. It is the time to work together and researchers have found that the degree of clysmic impact on the economy and not in compartments. The states and health inequalities escalate when the rising average income levels of the population are society. A government committed to the local governments are equal partners accompanied by rising income inequalities Directive Principles of the Constitution with the centre in the structure of (Joe et al 2008). The same is the case of educa- tion unless there is intervention by the state. cannot do this. Hence, Kerala and other cooperative federalism. There cannot be states have been consistent in demand- asymmetric relations, which will result References ing that the mechanical limits to borro- in fi scally disempowering the tiers of the Chancel, Lucas and Thomas Piketty (2017): “Indian wing by the states will have to be government closer to the people. Income Inequality, 1922-2014: From British Raj to Billionaire Raj?” October, CEPR Discussion rel axed. The state was among the fi rst Paper No DP12409, https://ssrn.com/ab- to demand raising of the borrowing limit In Conclusion stract=3066021. The outbreak of COVID-19 could not have GIFT (2020): Economic and Fiscal Shock of Covid-19 of states from 3% to 5% of the gross on Kerala, Gulati Institute of Finance and Taxa- state domestic product (GSDP). This is a come at a more inappropriate time. The tion, Government of Kerala, Thiruvananthapuram. time when fi scal conservatism should national economy had already started Government of India (2020): “Press Note on Provi- sional Estimates of Annual National Income be discarded. Our economic growth is showing palpable indicators of an eco- 2019–20 and Quarterly Estimates of Gross Do- in peril. nomic slowdown. In fact, the fi rst signs mestic Product for the Fourth Quarter (Q4) of 2019–20,” National Statistical Offi ce, Ministry As per the latest estimates released by were evident as early as 2008. Particu- of Statistics and Programme Implementation, the National Statistics Offi ce (NSO), the larly after 2011–12, the investment rate New Delhi. growth rate of gross value added (GVA) and the savings rate in the economy Joe, William, U S Mishra and K Navaneetham (2008): “Health Inequality in India: Evidence at basic prices for 2019–20 was 3.9% as showed a downward slide. Employment from NFHS 3,” Economic & Political Weekly, against 6.0% for 2018–19 (Government fell. Offi cial data for 2017–18 showed Vol 43, No 31, August. of India 2020). The growth of manu- that our unemployment rates were the KSPB (2020): Quick Assessment of the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic and Lockdown on Kerala’s facturing sector fell to 0.03% during highest in the last 45 years. Economy, Kerala State Planning Board, Govern- 2019–20 from 5.7% during 2018–19. The The Covid-19 pandemic has emerged ment of Kerala, Thiruvananthapuram, http:// www.spb.kerala.gov.in/images/pdf/whats_ growth rate of the employment-intensive on top of the already brewing crisis and
ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY new/cov19_qck_asmt_fnl_eng.pdf. construction sector also fell from 6.1% to it has brought the economy to a grinding Piketty, Thomas (2017): “Capital in the Twenty- 1.3% between 2018–19 and 2019–20. halt. Government revenues have dried First Century,” Translated by Arthur Goldham- mer, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London: The These slowdown trends were evident up while spending obligations have gone Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. even before the lockdown induced a halt up. We should not hesitate to borrow to all the economic activities. and spend in the immediate run to re- In the above circumstance, reviving vive the economy. In the medium run, growth in the economy has to be prime we should rethink our economic priori- available at consideration. For this, fi scal orthodoxy ties and redefi ne the role of the state so has to give way to an expansionary fi scal that it will be empowered to effectively Ideal Books programme. Public borrowing at this intervene in social sectors like health 26/2082, Tutors Lane Secretariat Statue time to spend and protect the liveli- and education. Fashionable phrases Thiruvananthapuram 695001, hoods of people and to build new infra- such as “minimum government, maxi- Kerala structure will energise the economy and mum governance” should have no place.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 13 COMMENTARY outcome of the constitutional scheme of Parliaments in the Time our parliamentary democracy.
of the Pandemic Lack of Institutional Checks Our Constitution envisages three primary roles for our Parliament—lawmaking, Maansi Verma representation and accountability. The Constitution devolves the lawmaking Democratic accountability n 23 March 2020, the budget power to Parliament by providing for all demands that the executive session of Parliament, scheduled those subjects on which Parliament has 2 decisions and actions during the Oto run till 2 April 2020, was cut jurisdiction to make laws, the repre- short and adjourned sine die (indefi nitely) sentative nature of Parliament is evident pandemic need to be subjected in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. from the composition of both houses3 to legislative scrutiny. However, The budget session, which had started on and the accountability function of the this process is absent as the 31 January 2020, one day after the World Parliament is laid down in Article 75(3) Health Organization declared this outbreak Parliament is adjourned and even of the Constitution, which states that as a Public Health Emergency of Interna- “The Council of Ministers shall be col- the parliamentary committees tional Concern, witne ssed 23 sittings dur- lectively responsible to the House of are not functioning. Taking a cue ing which many members of Parliament People.” Thus, Parliament is a legislative from the parliaments worldwide (MPs) raised questions related to the novel body designed to keep the executive under coronavirus and statements were made by check on behalf of the people it represents, that are functional during the ministers on the same. A question search and MPs use the instruments of questions pandemic, modalities to ensure on the Lok Sabha website throws up 44 and debates to perform their role. But, if the functioning of parliamentary results, with one of the earliest questions Parliament is not in session when the institutions need to be devised. asked on 7 February on the screening of entire nation is in the grip of a pandemic, coronavirus cases to which the Ministry of then it creates an additional crisis of rep- Health and Family Welfare provided a resentation and accountability. detailed response on steps taken (Lok This is because the pandemic has Sabha 2020a). Some other questions in expanded the scope of government control the Lok Sabha pertained to the impact of on every aspect of life with likely longer- the coronavirus on trade directed to term ramifi cations. On the one hand, as Ministry of Finance (Lok Sabha 2020b) has been argued, governments in different and discrimination faced by students from parts of the world are seeing the crisis as north-eastern parts of the country direct- an opportunity to impose harsh laws ed to the Ministry of Human Resource and restrictions, which are also being re- and Development (Lok Sabha 2020c). ceived positively by people reeling under Another 40 questions were raised in fear of death, even if they come at the cost the Rajya Sabha, with the earliest on 11 of loss of freedoms (App lebaum 2020). February on measures to prevent the spread And, on the other hand, a “solutionist” of the disease (Rajya Sabha 2020a). The tendency has pervaded public adminis- Ministry of Labour and Employment was tration where technology, bordering on also questioned about the impact of the surveillance, is being pushed as an ap- coronavirus on employment, and the propriate response to every crisis, which ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY ministry admitted to not having any data comes at the cost of asking tough ques- on retrenchments caused due to the same tions to those wielding power (Morozov (Rajya Sabha 2020b). During this 23-day 2020). In the absence of robust institutions short budget session, the minister of to keep governments under check, demo- health and family welfare made two cratic principles may be under threat. statements each on the fl oor of both the As per a tracker set up by PRS Legislative houses apprising members of the steps Research, as many as 732 notifi cations taken, and two statements were made by have been issued by the central govern- the minister of external affairs about ment since the spread of the virus came Indians stranded in other countries.1 All to light. These range from international Maansi Verma ([email protected]) these questions and concerns raised by the travel restrictions to the postponement is a lawyer, public policy professional and the MPs, along with statements made and of board exams to prohibition on the ex- founder of the Maadhyam Initiative. responses given by ministers, are the port of masks, ventilators and advisories
14 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly COMMENTARY to employers to refrain from terminating crucial state election; the intersession Majlis is using Microsoft Teams video- from employment or deduction of wages.4 period is often used to bring ordinances conferencing technology to hold virtual Some of these notifi cations have invited that the government may otherwise fi nd parliament sessions. The Speaker of criticism—the voluntary deduction of one diffi cult to push through in Parliament Maldives Parliament, Mohamed Nasheed, day’s salary of government staff to Prime (Verma and Prasad 2018). This is contrary sums up the need to move towards virtual Minister’s Citizen Assistance and Relief in to the practice in some other countries sessions thus, “Parliaments worldwide Emergency Situations (PM CARES) which like the United Kingdom (UK), Australia, cannot just stop representing their people is mandatory in effect (Mohanty 2020); Canada, and South Africa where calen- during this crisis. The institutions of demo- the automatic extension of environment dars with sitting dates are anno unced at cracy must continue to function” (Frontier clearance to all projects and the issuing the beginning of the year itself (Khullar Enterprise 2020). As per some reports, of draft Environment Impact Assessment 2017). Additionally, in the UK, MPs ap- the Indian government is now consider- notifi cation for public consultation, which prove recess through a vote (BBC 2019b), ing measures like holding the sessions in environmentalists have decried (Nandi and last year, the supreme court of UK Central Hall, which will provide more 2020); the mandatory use of Aarogya struck down the prorogation of Parlia- space to MPs, alternate sittings between Setu app on which many privacy con- ment by the Queen, with several days of the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, remote cerns have been raised (Clarance 2020). sittings left, as it prevented “Parliament attendance, and even a UK style hybrid Two months into the lockdown, the from being able to do its job” (BBC 2019a). model, but even then, the session may only Supreme Court has also received scath- In contrast to India’s Parliament with no be convened by the end of August (Sharma ing condemnation for its abdication of set calendar, several parliaments across 2020). There seems to be no urgency as duty with respect to monitoring govern- the world are committed to meet on set the Constitution permits a six-month hi- ment’s inadequate intervention in pro- dates through the year, and therefore, it atus between the end of one session and viding relief to migrant workers and has was not surprising to see many parlia- start of another.6 Parliament will con- been urged to shed its helplessness and mentary institutions quickly adapting to tinue to be prevented from doing its job. exercise its power under Article 142 to the changed circumstances. Since sitting do complete justice (Indian Express 2020). in close proximity with each other was Parliamentary Committees Right to information activists have exp- no longer feasible, many parliaments But, what has been doubly disappointing ressed concern on the dismal functionality switched to virtual or hybrid sessions. In for India is the fact that the parliamen- of information commissions in various the UK, hybrid sessions were organised tary committees that continue to function states though the Central Information as per which up to 50 members could be even when Parliament is not in session Commission began hearings through physically present in the chamber and 120 have also been rendered dysfun ctional. videoconferencing and audio means could be present over videoconference, Several MPs have requested the presiding from 15 April itself as citizens’ right to and members could raise departmental offi cers of both houses to allow committee information requires even greater pro- questions, Prime Minister questions, leg- meetings to be conducted virtually, argu- tection during the times of crisis (Mishra islative business and even remote voting ing that even the Prime Minister and other 2020). The non-functionality of any ins- could be conducted through the same ministers are holding meetings virtually titution that keeps the executive under (UK Parliament 2020d). Canada also or- (Prabhu and Banerjie 2020). It has been check in these times is problematic, but ganised a virtual parliament where MPs reported that such a move has been resisted even more concerning is the non-availa- joined over a Zoom call, permitting MPs to by the Parliament secretariat as committee bility of the most fundamental platform ask questions to the government (Tumilty meetings are supposed to be confi dential for raising concerns on excesses or fail- 2020). The Bureau of European Parliament and virtual meetings can be hacked into ures of the government—Parliament. has agreed to temporary changes to its (Varma and Anuja 2020). Though a valid rules of procedure to permit virtual delib- concern, it is not entirely clear that when Representation and Accountability erations and voting by MPs and commit- the Prime Minister and other govern- ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY At the outset, it must be noted that it is tee members (Library of Congress 2020). ment offi cials have already started using disconcerting that the Indian Parliament In Chile, the constitution was amended an online meeting portal designed by NIC itself has no control over when a session to permit the senate to hold sessions in a (National Informatics Centre), why can may be called and when it is adjourned. mixed-system of face-to-face and virtual the same not be used for committee meet- Though the President summons and pro- participation, allowing for remote voting ings as well? (Chatterji 2020a). Chakshu rogues a session, they do so on the aid as well (Republic of Chile Senate 2020). Roy, head of legislative and civic en- and advice of the council of ministers.5 Spain, one of the worst affected coun- gagement at PRS Legislative Research, Having assumed the power to decide the tries by the pandemic, also ensured that while highlighting that Rules of Proce- dates of a session to itself, the executive legislative work does not stop, as despite dure provide enough discretion to pre- is able to control the agenda in various a complete lockdown, MPs continued to siding offi cers to permit virtual meetings, manners. For instance, Parliament sessions deliberate and vote on legislative propo- argued that have been postponed to avoid providing sals (Alsina and Gambrell 2020). Closer The institution of Parliament has to continu- a platform to the opposition ahead of a home, Maldives parliament or People’s ously evolve to not only keep a check on the
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 15 COMMENTARY
increasing canvas of government function- would consider bringing a bill for the Executive Government tempered and con- ing, but to also stay relevant as a governance same anytime soon, especially when the trolled by constant vigilance and repre- institution. (Yamunan 2020) Personal Data Protection Bill also remains sentative criticism” (Kaul and Sha kdher There were indications that the Parlia- pending before the Joint Parliamentary 2016: 10). Adjourned in the midst of a mentary Standing Committee on Home Committee (JPC) which is unable to meet. pandemic, India’s Parliament currently Affairs would meet on 3 June 2020 and South African parliament recently held a is far from this ideal. become the fi rst department-related joint meeting of its Committee on Social It is, however, possible to make incre- Standing Committee to meet since the Development and Health and Social mental steps towards that ideal. As long lockdown was fi rst imposed (Chatterji Services where the committees were as the fear of infection looms large, vari- 2020b). The union home secretary had to briefed by non-governmental organisa- ous activities all over the world will con- appear before the committee and brief tions as well as the Department of Social tinue to go digital and virtual, and our the members on the ministry’s handling Development on the implementation of Parliament and its committees cannot be of the crisis and respond to questions by food security, psycho–social support an exception. The standing commi ttees the members. Given the slew of notifi ca- and gender-based violence-related pro- must be enabled to meet online at the tions and guidelines that the Ministry of grammes in response to Covid-19 (Par- earliest. As per the Lok Sabha website, the Home Affairs issued on containment and liament of the Republic of South Standing Committee on Labour and In- movement of people throughout the dura- Africa 2020). Despite a looming food secu- formation Technology was scheduled to tion of the lockdown, this review by the rity crisis in India, the standing commit- meet on 5 June and 10 June 2020, respec- committee should have happened much tees in Indian Parliament have not had tively. However, the Information Tech- sooner. But the meeting had to be post- the opportunity yet of being briefed either nology Committee meeting had to be poned as several MPs expressed the ina- by ministry offi cials or other stakeholders postponed to 17 June 2020 as, ironically, bility to travel, and a request for a virtual on the steps taken by the government to no decision could be reached on holding meeting was denied by the Rajya Sabha provide relief to people in distress. On the sitting through videoconferencing. Secretariat (Manoj and Mathew 2020). 31 March 2020, barely seven days after the For future meetings, instead of pushing In the UK, just before parliament went budget session was curtailed, the central the date ahead, arrangements must be into recess, MPs raised several questions government brought an ordinance that, put in place for those MPs who cannot to the Prime Minister on the handling of among other things, provided for 100% travel to join the meeting virtually. the coronavirus, including one on “pub- tax exemption to donations made to PM Additionally, those parts of committee lishing the scientifi c advice that the de- CARES, which was established a few days meetings in which oral evidence is being cisions [lockdown decisions] were based before (Economic Times 2020). Had the tendered before the committee, whether on” (UK Parliament 2020b). But Indian budget session been allowed to run its by ministry offi cials or by external stake- people, represented through their MPs, ordinary course till 3 April, the govern- holders, must be made public as is the are at a disadvantage in raising such ment would have had to bring this as a practice in several other countries (Live- questions on the fl oor of Parliament or bill in Parliament, which would have mint 2017). This is because, especially in committee meetings. facilitated a debate on many issues con- during a pandemic, transparency around In UK again, a joint select committee cerning PM CARES which have been the steps being taken by the government on human rights launched an inquiry highlighted since then (Meghnad 2020). for the people, acts as an essential check into the human rights implications of against greater concentration and abuse of the government’s response to Covid-19 In Conclusion power (Transparency International 2020). and specifi cally looked at the surveil- In 2011, following the 2G spectrum alloca- Finally, now would be an appropriate lance and breach of privacy concerns tion controversy, the government of the time to experiment with a precedent for arising out of their contact-tracing appli- day was pushed by the opposition to set allowing MPs to demand special sessions cation, the report of which was also up a JPC to look into the allegations, and of Parliament to deal with emergency ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY made public (UK Parliament 2020a). Fol- Arun Jaitley, the leader of opposition in concerns. Naresh Gujral, Rajya Sabha MP lowing this, the committee also drafted a Rajya Sabha at that time, famously termed from Shiromani Akali Dal, had made a bill on the Covid-19 contact tracing ap- the upcoming budget session as the “ses- similar proposition in his private mem- plication, asking the government to sion of accountability” (Economic Times ber’s bill in which he provided that such bring it to parliament (UK Parliament 2011). Not just that session, every session a special session, which may be of 15 2020c). In India, similar concerns have and every sitting of Parliament is about days’ duration, should be convened to also been raised with respect to the accountability, though not in an adver- deliberate on a limited number of mat- Aarogya Setu application and demands sarial manner but in a collaborative, co- ters of urgent importance, which may be have been made for it to be rooted in a operative manner, which advances the in- decided after deliberating not just with law, which abides by the standards for terests of the people whose voices the all political parties but by inviting sug- privacy laid down by the Supreme Court parliamentarians represent. Modern par- gestions from public as well.7 Despite (Prasad 2020). But, it is only a matter of liaments are described as institutions several MPs supporting the bill, it was speculation whether the government aiming towards the ideal of a “strong negatived during the vote but the ideas
16 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly COMMENTARY
proposed in the bill are more relevant COVID–19”, 17 April, https://www.frontier-en- Lacks Clear Legal Backing and Limits, Tends terprise.com/parliament-in-maldives-con- towards Surveillance,” Deccan Herald, 10 May, now than ever. vene-online-with-microsoft-amid-covid-19/. https://www.deccanherald.com/specials/sun- Indian Express (2020): “A Letter to Justices of day-spotlight/aarogya-setu-app-lacks-clear-le- Notes Supreme Court, from Senior Members of the gal-backing-and-limits-tends-towards-surveil- Bar on the Migrant Crisis,” 29 May, https://in- lance-835692.html. 1 On 7 February 2020 in Rajya Sabha followed by dianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/in- Rajya Sabha (2020a): “Measures to Prevent Spread 10 February 2020 in Lok Sabha, the health mini- dia-lockdown-coronavirus-covid-19-migrant- of Disease Caused by Coronavirus,” Unstarred ster made detailed statements on the steps tak- labourers-crisis-supreme-court-6432059/. 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House of Commons,” viewed on 30 May 2020, — (2020b): “House Panels to Begin Work Starting theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/15/ https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/covid-19- 3 June,” Hindustan Times, 28 May, https:// tech-coronavirus-surveilance-state-digital-disrupt. hybrid-proceedings-in-the-house-of-commons/. www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/house- Nandi, Jayashree (2020): “Environment Experts
ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Varma Gyan and Anuja (2020): “Tussle over Confi - panels-to-begin-work-starting-june-3/story- Seek to Defer Draft Clearance Regulation,” dentiality Clause Derails Panel Meeting Pro- y29c1uBAlw6Ulwrwg2jHSN.html. Hindustan Times, 25 March, https://www.hindu- posal,” Livemint, 2 May, https://www.livemint. Clarance, Andrew (2020): “Aarogya Setu: Why stantimes.com/india-news/environment-experts- com/news/india/tussle-over-confi dentiality- India’s Covid–19 Contact Tracing App Is Con- seek-to-defer-draft-environment-clearance-regu- clause-derails-panel-meeting-proposal- troversial,” BBC, 15 May, https://www.bbc. lation/story-sQIjIqM4DvyTTDU1Nc2ZAO.html. 11590092105073.html. com/news /world-asia-india-52659520. Parliament of the Republic of South Africa (2020): Verma Maansi and Malavika Prasad (2018): “Par- Economic Times (2011): “2G Scam: Congressman “Social Services Committees to be Briefed by liament Logjam Part 11: Time, the Unseen Yet Chacko Likely to Head JPC,” 22 February, NGOs on Covid–19 Related Food Security Pro- Powerful Factor of Politics, Is Key to Control- https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/ grammes,” 28 May, https://www.parliament. ling Legislative Discourse,” Firstpost, 21 June, politics-and-nation/2g-scam-congressman-chacko gov.za/press-releases/social-services-commit- https://www.fi rstpost.com/india/parliament- -likely-to-head-jpc/articleshow/7543221.cms? tees-be-briefed-ngos-covid-19-related-food-se- logjam-part-11-time-the-unseen-yet-powerful- from=mdr. curity-programmes. factor-of-politics-holds-key-to-controlling-leg- — (2020): “Ordinance Issued to Make PM CARES Prabhu, Sunil and Monideepa Banerjie (2020): islative-discourse-4494933.html. Donations Tax Free,” 1 April, https://economic- “Sonia Gandhi Plans Mega Opposition Meet, Yamunan, Sruthisagar (2020): “Should Parliamentary times.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/ Mamata Banerjee to Attend,” NDTV, 19 May, Panels Meet Online during Lockdown? MPs Are ordinance-issued-to-make-pm-cares-donations- https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lockdown Divided but Here’s What Rules Say,” Scroll.in, 7 tax-free/articleshow/74923420.cms. -4-0-opposition-gets-active-as-lockdown-eas- May, https://scroll.in/article/961223/with-india- Frontier Enterprise (2020): “Parliament in Mal- es-sonia-gandhi-to-chair-mega-meet-2231666. under-covid-19-lockdown-parliamentary-commit- dives Convenes Online with Microsoft Amid Prasad, Smitha Krishna (2020): “Aarogya Setu App tees-have-suspended-meetings.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 17 COMMENTARY products” rhetoric. These were trying to COVID-19 and Infectious paint a picture that other governments cannot be held responsible for stumbling Misinformation in front of this disease because it is a planned conspiracy. But now, months have passed and the governments can- Aniket Sule not escape the blame for failure of their medical systems and their strategies. In these times of pandemic, we e are living in an unusual Thus, these kind of WhatsApp forwards are witnessing the continued period. When was the last time have now lost their currency. Around the same time, the second set dissemination of pseudoscientifi c Wthat a disease infected millions of people in under six months and pene- of misinformation messages started talk- misinformation about the disease trated every county? When was the last ing about occult methods. Astrologers and as well as dubious claims of time that the scientifi c community as numerologists came forward to claim alternative cure. In some instances, well as governments appeared totally that they had predicted this pandemic helpless? When was the last time that before it started. Some of them had also such claims appear to be getting the majority of the world population was predicted when the waning phase of offi cial endorsements. Enabling forced to stay indoors for days and weeks? COVID-19 will start. As expected, those people to identify unscientifi c Every one of these situations has a poten- dates have come and gone. claims and hoaxes, is the way tial for a paradigm shift, shaking people’s Then, some people spoke about chants faith in governments, science, economy, and positive energies. People did not forward to build rational world order, etc. In such moments of crisis even spare symbolic gestures proposed immunity to halt the infectious of faith, the void created by the dimin- by the Prime Minister. For each of those spread of misinformation. ishing confi dence in these systems is fi lled gestures, at least fi ve different explana- by other things like misinformation. tions were doing the rounds to articulate When COVID-19 started spreading the so-called scientifi c rationale behind around the world, it did not take much the proposed actions. All of these claimed time for many to realise that this disease that if these symbolic tasks were carried is unlike others. Swine fl u, bird fl u, and through, the virus will disappear then and mad cow disease were thought to be there. Naturally, there were processions deadly, but their spread remained limited. and public events of celebration after Thus, humanity had enough time on its each of those tasks. As it happens with hand to develop their treatment. But, every new disease, some cow enthusiasts this one spread like wild fi re and exposed declared that COVID-19 can be either treat- the defi ciencies of medical services and ed or prevented by cow urine, cow dung, governments the world over. Naturally, or panchagavya. This fell out of favour by the blame game began. late March, when they realised that their unusual choice of drink is not helping Misinformation Factory and, in fact, was making some people First set of whisper campaigns, that is, sick. But, this hoax is now again gather- anonymous WhatsApp forwards, tried ing steam with the Gujarat government to convince people that this virus was starting human trials of panchagavya on purposely released by China, where the COVID-19 patients (Sanghavi 2020). ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY fi rst infections appeared. Some initial As there was no ready medicine or messages tried arguing that this is a lab- vaccine available, people turned towards made virus. But after the release of home remedies. The next wave of scientifi c evidence conclusively showing misinformation started advocating us- that the virus was a natural mutation, ing everything from tea, ginger, garlic, these messages changed their tone to say lemon to baking soda and nasal rinses that China allowed to spread it globally using mustard oil. Many of these sub- on purpose or due to negligence or due stances are used to provide relief from to its obsession with secrecy. Then, there symptoms in the case of the common Aniket Sule ([email protected]) is with were accompanying forwards trying to cold and cough, and hence, it is under- the Homi Bhabha Centre for Science Education, expose how China is planning to take standable that many people thought that Tata Institute of Fundamental Research over the world economy using this virus these may also work in the case of (HBCSE–TIFR). as a weapon and the usual “ban Chinese COVID-19. But, what they fail to realise is
18 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly COMMENTARY the fact that, even in the case of common some newspapers carried stories that pathic substance known as arsenicum cold, the relief provided by these sub- bats are spreading this virus and many album D30 (AA30). The ministry fi rst stances is temporary and just a relief hyperactive local bodies started prun- issued a circular in early February that from external symptoms. Since the cold ing trees, which housed colonies of bats. AA30 can cure the novel corona virus; is not really cured by these, the claim was this was met with swift condemnation fl awed to begin with. As we have seen in Unscientifi c Prescriptions from the scientifi c community (Bhasin the extreme example of the suggestion by In the game of Chinese whispers, we start 2020). But after a few weeks’ silence, the the United States (US) President about with a meaningful message, but just AYUSH ministry again started putting injec ting disinfectant inside people, even after a few retellings, it gets all garbled out infographics claiming that AA30 can for a most outlandish suggestion such as up. Similar is the case with COVID-19- prevent COVID-19 by boosting immunity. this, there are some people who will related messaging. You start with some- As a result, now many local politicians mindlessly follow it through. Thus, our thing as simple as, “Concentrated bleach are going door to door distributing pack- social infl uencers advocating some of these can be used to disinfect various common ets of AA30. It is well-established in mul- home remedies made matters worse. surfaces” and before you know it, some- tiple studies that homoeopathic sub- Here, one must acknowledge a genuine where in the country bleach solution is stances have success rates only as good confusion in the public understanding of sprayed on hapless migrants. Nowadays, as placebos and, hence, its status as med- the term “immunity.” In scientifi c terms, many cities and localities have started icine is disputed. Yet, the AYUSH minis- immunity is always against a specifi c spraying disinfectant on the streets once try is steadfastly ignoring it and promot- disease, and the only way to acquire such every few days. Many housing societies ing these substances.1 Various state gov- immunity is either through vaccination or and offi ces are following their example ernments have since followed AYUSH if one gets cured after getting infected. blindly and the equipment manufacturers advisories without any application of By either way, the body develops anti- are making a nice profi t. However, no mind and wasted time and effort in the bodies to prevent future infection. How- one stops to think what is the probability distribution of substances with question- ever, in common parlance, anything which of someone touching the road surface able medical value (Barnagarwala 2020; contributes to better health is mistaken and then immediately touching their nose Hindu 2020; Rout 2020). as “improving/boosting immunity.” As a or mouth or if most of the viral mole- result, many products, from herbal con- cules on these surfaces are anyway deacti- Task of Dispelling Myths coctions to sanitisers and handwashes vated within a few hours, what additional Several groups are fi ghting valiantly and masks, claim imm unity-boosting protection is being offered by spraying against this horde of misinformation. properties in their marketing campaigns. the streets once in a week? An initiative called Indian Scientists’ Various autho rities from company If you look at the medicines and treat- Response to COVID-19 (ISRC), has created owners to local corporators and offi ce- ments being used around the world, again, a number of infographics on hoaxes, bearers of residents’ associations then there is signifi cant confusion leading to which were backed by more detailed fall prey to this false marketing and start misinformation. In March and April, analysis.2 We, at ISRC, are collaborating distribution of these products to all, in the authorities in the US made some positive with media houses to create videos on name of public service. We even heard the noises regarding hydroxychloroquine this topic. We are doing call-in sessions Prime Minister talking about “traditional (HCQ). After that, many countries and in Indian languages to answer questions immunity boosters” in one of his nation- agencies started using HCQ on many pa- from people regarding COVID-19. We also al addresses (India Today 2020). This tients without proper scientifi c validation. issued a strong public statement against may simply seem like an issue of linguistic Some companies distributed HCQ tablets claims regarding alter native medicines nuance, but can lead to very serious con- to medical workers with a lot of fanfare and COVID-19. There are several other sequences. Anecdotal evidence suggests and publicity. But now, research suggests groups and institutes that are doing that many people take such “immunity- that there is no evidence of HCQ helping similar work. But, the fl ood of misinfor- ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY boosting substances” and then become in COVID-19 treatment and, on the other mation is relentless. When we get a overconfi dent that they are immune to the hand, there are signifi cant and poten- random forward, we carefully check all novel coronavirus. This mistaken belief tially fatal side effects (Bosely 2020). research to date to verify each and every leads to one lowering one’s guard and Lastly, there is the elephant in the claim from that forward; then we craft gives an opening for the virus to strike. room that needs to be acknowledged. a response that accurately refl ects the Another set of hoaxes created all sort Most of these misleading messages are evidence seen in the research, and also of confusion about the nature of this being sent by anonymous persons. But translate this response to multiple lan- virus and its spread. There were claims the Ayurveda, Yoga and Naturopathy, guages to reach a large audience. This that the virus is spreading through meat Unani, Siddha and Homoeopathy (AYUSH) process takes anywhere between a week and Chinese food. In the initial weeks, ministry of the Government of India is to 10 days. By the time we are ready many were confi dent that the virus will consistently sending out claims about with our output, that hoax would al- not be able to spread in India due to heat medicines without any scientifi c evidence. ready be out of the market and fi ve new and humidity. In the early part of May, It has been obsessed with the homoeo- hoaxes would have taken its pace.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 19 COMMENTARY
Is it then worth fi ghting such rampant expertise. But, that strategy does not Album 30,” Indian Express, 5 June, https://indi- spread of misinformation? Many of my work anymore. People get any factoids anexpress.com/article/explained/debate-over- a-homoeo-drug-arsenicum-album-coronavi- colleagues feel that few of us who keep they want with one Google search. The rus-vaccine-6439697/. talking about scientifi c temper are just animations and videos you can show Bhasin, Swati (2020): “Government’s Homeopathy going out of our way to sniff out such them are also available online. They no Prescription for Coronavirus Triggers Criti- cism,” NDTV, 30 January, https://www.ndtv. outrageous things. They feel things are longer need experts for gathering infor- com/india-news/coronavirus-outbreak-criti- not as bad as we portray. Are not most mation. We must realise this and stop cism-as-ayush-ministry-recommends-homeop- people smart enough to separate chalk talking about the same old scientifi c facts. athy-for-coronavirus-2171756. Boseley, Sarah (2020): “Hydroxychloroquine Does from cheese? Unfortunately, the answer Instead, we should communicate to them Not Cure Covid-19, Say Drug Trial Chiefs,” is not very encouraging. There is obvi- how the process of science works and Guardian, 5 June, https://www.theguardian. com/world/2020/jun/05/hydroxychloroquine ously one section in our society that has what analysis is performed to arrive at -does-not-cure-covid-19-say-drug-trial-chiefs. associated many of these hoaxes with that the judgment, whereby one result is Hindu (2020): “Coronavirus: Distribution of Kabasura ethnic pride and considers any attempt to labelled as scientifi c and another claim is Kudineer Commences at Ambur,” 18 May, https:// www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/ correct misinformation as some Western unscientifi c. We should impart the skill coronavirus-distribution-of-kabasura-kudineer- conspiracy. These people are not going to of scientifi c thinking instead of just commences-at-ambur/article31615438.ece. change their views irrespective of the passing on scientifi c facts. As the Biblical India Today (2020): “Coronavirus Immunity Build- ing Tips from Prime Minister Modi’s Speech: evidence presented to them. But, there is saying goes, “if you give a man a fi sh, he Drink Hot Water, Kadha,” 14 April, https:// a larger second layer of society envelop- will eat today, but teach a man to fi sh www.indiatoday.in/lifestyle/health/story/ ing this fi rst group that should be our and he will eat forever.” If you can teach coronavirus-immunity-building-tips-from-pm- modi-s-speech-drink-hot-water-kad- focus. This group includes those people a large number of people to fi sh, hope- ha-1666720-2020-04-14. who will not create such misinformation, fully you will not have to fi ght misinfor- Rout, Hemant Kumar (2020): “COVID-19: As Lock- but they may believe it without question- mation the next time. downs Go, Why Ayurveda as Preventive Makes Sense for States,” New Indian Express, 31 May, ing. They may not like to openly admit Notes https://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/ that they believe in any of the question- bhubaneswar/2020/ may/31/covid-19-as-lock- 1 Ministry of AYUSH circular is accessible here, able advice they get through these mes- downs-go-why-ayurveda-as-preventive- https://www.ayush.gov.in/docs/125.pdf. makes-sense-for-states-2150271.html. sages, but their standard res ponse of 2 More information about ISRC can be found here, Sanghavi, Nishchal (2020): “Gujarat Plans to Give http://indscicov.in/for-public/busting-hoaxes/. “What’s the harm?” betrays their think- World a Wonder Drug to Battle Corona,” ing. This group is largely invisible and Ahmedabad Mirror, 27 May, https:// ahmedabad- References mirror.indiatimes.com/ahmedabad/cover-story/ hence underestimated, but that is the Barnagarwala, Tabassum (2020): “Explained: The gujarat-plans-to-give-world-a-wonder-drug-to- herd which emboldens the fi rst group. Debate Over Homoeopathic Drug Arsenicum battle-corona/articleshow/76017951.cms. Misinformation spreads like an infec- tion. It needs the community to jump from Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, New Delhi A sponsored institution of Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR) one host to another, and it does not ISID reach pandemic proportions unless a cri- ICSSR Institutional Doctoral Fellowships for the Year 2020-21 tical mass is susceptible to it. There is no medicine to cure those who are severely ISID is a national-level policy research institution affi liated to the ICSSR. The Institute was allotted a few doctoral fellowship by ICSSR to provide guidance for Ph.D. scholars infected by the misinformation bug. The in Economics particularly in the areas of industrialisation, corporate sector, international only way to save society will be to build trade, investment, technology, public health, labour and employment. Applications in “herd immunity.” Exactly like the viral the prescribed format are invited from suitable candidates for award of Institutional infection, if a large section of society Doctoral Fellowships, at the ISID. becomes immune to misinformation, most Eligibility: i) Post-graduate in social sciences with at least 55% marks and minimum of it will die out without reaching you. 45% marks in Graduation; ii) Relaxation of 5% marks will be made for candidates falling What do we mean by “immune to misin- under the SC/ST category; iii) The candidate should have cleared NET/SLET/M.Phil. ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY from a recognised university will carry weightage in the assessment of research proposal. formation”? If most people simply delete iv) Candidates who have already availed of UGC JRF/RGDF/MADF/ICSSR or any such the questionable forwards they get, doctoral fellowships are not eligible to apply; and v) The applicant must be registered instead of forwarding them, that level of for Ph.D. in any of the Indian universities within the UGC framework. They should be immunity will be enough to stop the willing to work under the supervision of one of the ISID faculty members as his/her guide spread. It still remains a task for science or co-guide. communicators to teach the masses how Age: Upper age limit is 40 yrs can be relaxed by 5 yrs to SC/ST category to spot questionable messages. And, that Duration and Value: Fellowship amount would be `20,000/- per month and a contingency is where our focus should lie. grant of `20,000/- per annum. Duration of the fellowship is two years. Our traditional strategy in science Completed applications forms should be addressed to the Director, ISID, 4, Institutional communication has been to tell people Area, Vasant Kunj Phase II, New Delhi - 110070 and reach on or before July 10, 2020. Email: [email protected]. Short-listed candidates will be called for interview. about the right kind of science, awe Application Form and other details can be downloaded from the Institute’s Website at them with our fountain of information, http://isid.org.in/ICSSR-doctoral-Fellowships-2020-21/ and make them believe us by touting our
20 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly COMMENTARY main reasons for migration has been the Marginalised Migrants and problem of landlessness. Outmigration from Bihar in search of Bihar as an Area of Origin livelihood has been normalised over sev- eral decades. But amidst the COVID-19 crisis, when the National Democratic Al- Avinash Kumar, Manish Kumar liance (NDA) government led by Nitish Kumar expressed its inability to bring back Outmigration from Bihar in he working and living conditions the migrants stranded across the coun- search of livelihood has been in which migrant workers, who try despite the decision of the centre to ease the lockdown to facilitate the inter- normalised over several decades, Tcarry out back-breaking work to support the Indian economy in the cities, state movement, many expressed their with Bihar being one of the have hardly remained hidden from the anger on social media (Financial Express topmost states of origin for the public view. The plight of these workers 2020). It was only much later that these migrants. Unemployment rate in became a subject of international attention migrant workers could go back to their after a nationwide lockdown was an- native states in Shramik special trains Bihar remains higher than the nounced on 24 March 2020 at 8 pm (Dutta 2020). Surprisingly, it was the country average. Agriculture has (to be implemented after four hours). migrant workers who had to foot the bill become unviable over the years Not only did the state demonstrate total by paying the increased ticket price for due to low yields, increasing neglect of the marginalised migrants, but their journey back home (Pandey 2020). it also rendered them stateless, further Given the plight of migrant workers landlessness and lack of fi nancial exposing them to a world of infections, amidst the COVID-19 crisis, we have at- support by the state. The return insecurity, and humiliations. With no tempted to understand why Bihar, despite migration to the state in the wake state support and the loss of employment, registering a higher growth trajectory in of COVID-19 necessitates that the lockdown initiated a painful process the last 15 years, has continued to re- for the migrants. main one of the topmost areas of origin the state generate farm and According to a recent survey conducted of migrant workers. We also analyse non-farm employment to address between 8 and 13 April 2020, 90% of mi- whether the much-celebrated growth the crisis situation. grant workers in various states did not story of the NDA government in Bihar get paid by their employers, 96% did not also includes measures to address the receive ration from the government, and causes of outmigration from the state. 70% migrant workers did not get cooked food (Hindu 2020). Thousands of migrant Migration Trends workers across the country started to walk The history of migration from Bihar hundreds and thousands of kilometres dates back to the colonial period when to reach their native places. According to the British used to send workers from the World Bank, in just a few days of the this region to other colonies. However, lockdown, around 60,000 people had migration continued from the state even moved from urban centres to rural areas in independent India. It was in response (Economic Times 2020). Soon, news re- to the increased demand of labour due ports started pouring in that several mi- to the green revolution in the north- grant labourers and their family members, western part of the country in the early including children, lost their lives on 1970s. Later in the 1980s and 1990s, ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY their way back, either out of hunger or migrants moved towards cities on the road accidents (Rawal et al 2020). western coast and the southern part of Rural economies such as Bihar, Odisha, the country from Bihar. This soon Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh are agri- became a widespread phenomenon, cut- cultural-based regions with the majority ting across the hierarchy of caste and of the workforce dependent on related class. The occupations in which they got occupations. However, because the agri- involved in the big cities, like those of Avinash Kumar ([email protected]) cultural productivity of these regions construction workers, security guards, teaches at the Centre for Informal Sector and Labour Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, has remained low, these states have rickshaw pullers, etc, remained highly Delhi. Manish Kumar (manish14jnu@gmail. failed to sustain the local population. caste and class dependent. Over the years, com) is a research scholar at the Centre for Hence, the workforce from these regions it became an accepted fact that remit- Economic Studies and Planning, Jawaharlal chose to migrate to towns and cities in tance played a critical role to support Nehru University, Delhi. search of livelihoods. One of the other livelihood in the state (Chanda 2011).1
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 21 COMMENTARY The Census 2011 is the latest offi cial data Jharkhand is at the top with 18%, fol- has the potential to push working mass on migration in the country. However, lowed by Delhi with 15% (Table 2). How- outside the state in search of income the Economic Survey of India 2016−17 ever, the reasons for migration to differ- sources. Bihar is a landlocked state and had reported that there were 60 million ent states are quite different. traditionally it has been an agriculture- interstate migrants in the country. An- Since Jharkhand and the most sub- dominated economy. However, the state other study suggests that the short-term stantial part of Uttar Pradesh share the in the last one and a half decade has not migrants, who work in the informal same cultural background with Bihar, witnessed any expansion in the agricul- economy of India, are around 60−65 marriage is one of the most important tural sector. The area under major crops million (Srivastava 2020). In the case of reasons for migration to these two states. has almost remained stagnant and there Bihar, a study fi nds that almost half of Also, since Jharkhand was carved out of is hardly any signifi cant change in the yield the households in Bihar have at least one Bihar in 2000, it has also remained a sig- rate. The yield rate of paddy in Bihar is migrant person (Times of India 2020). nifi cant employer of workers from Bihar 28 quintals per hectare, whereas the me- According to the Census 2011, there as it retained the maximum number of dian value for the country is 40 quintals are approximately 55 million interstate industries. The census also reports that per hectare. Similarly, the yield rate of migrants in the country, that is, people migrants from Bihar prefer Delhi the wheat in Bihar is 27 quintals per hectare whose state of residence is different from most for their work/employment. Delhi and the median value for the country is the state of enumeration. The top fi ve is also a preferred destination for educa- 31 quintals per hectare (GoI 2019). The destinations include Maharashtra, Delhi, tion (Table 3). Out of the total migrants fact that the yield rates of major crops in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Haryana. who have left Bihar citing work/employ- Bihar are well below the national average, Together, these states attract almost half ment as a reason, 18% reached Delhi, clearly indicates that the possibility of of the interstate migrants. Uttar Pradesh, 13% Jharkhand, 12% West Bengal, 12% agricultural expansion exists, but the Bihar, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Maharashtra and 7% Gujarat. These fi ve state government has hardly taken steps Madhya Pradesh are among the top fi ve states also see the same trend in the in that direction. origin states for interstate migrants category of “moved with household” as a Thus, due to the low yield rates com- (Table 1). The top fi ve origin states ac- reason for migration. bined with the risk of frequent fl ood, ag- count for 30 million interstate migrants, The National Sample Survey (NSS), riculture over the years has become a that is, 55% of the total. 2010 had recorded 4.7 million migrants less preferred employment sector of the According to the Census 2011, 7.5 mil- from Bihar in 2007−08. So, it indicates rural households in Bihar. According to lion migrants reported Bihar as an origin that in the next four years (until 2011) NSS 2014, in 2012−13 more than 50% state. The maximum number of migrants while the population of Bihar increased (that is, 7.1 million) of the total rural cited “search for work/employment” as by 38%, the migration from the state households in the state were agricultural their reason for migration, followed by grew by 59.6%. The higher growth rate households. But according to the Periodic “moved with household.” Among the of migration than the population growth Labour Force Survey 2017−18, only 35% preferred destinations for migrants, refl ects the shrinking work opportunities (out of 17.9 million rural households) Table 1: Top Destinations and Origin of Migrants or work environment in the state as one were self-employed in agriculture and in India, 2011 of the possible reasons. 10% were casual agricultural labour. Top Migrants Top Origins Migrants Destinations (million) (million) The fi gure of agricultural households of Maharashtra 9.1 (17) Uttar Pradesh 12.3 (23) Reasons for Outmigration 2012−13 includes all those who were Delhi 6.3 (12) Bihar 7.5 (14) The extent of employment generation at self-employed in agriculture and the Uttar Pradesh 4.1 (7) Rajasthan 3.8 (7) the origin has a direct infl uence on migra- households earning more than `3,000 Gujarat 3.9 (7) Maharashtra 3.1 (6) tion.2 Lack of employment opportunities from agriculture in a year. The comparison Haryana 3.6 (7) Madhya Pradesh 3.0 (5) Figures in parentheses represent the share (%) of total Table 3: Top Five Destinations of Bihar’s Migrants for Different Reasons, 2011 interstate migrants in India. Work / Business Education Marriage Moved after Moved with Others ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Source: Census of India, 2011. Employment Birth Household Table 2: Top Destinations of Migrants from Delhi West Bengal Delhi Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Delhi West Bengal Bihar, 2011 (18) (31) (21) (31) (21) (20) (21) Destination Persons Share in Total Jharkhand Assam Uttar Pradesh Jharkhand Jharkhand Jharkhand Jharkhand Migration from Bihar (%) (13) (18) (15) (18) (16) (20) (16) Jharkhand 13,36,048 18 West Bengal Odisha Jharkhand West Bengal Delhi West Bengal Delhi Delhi 11,06,629 15 (12) (10) (13) (10) (15) (20) (15) West Bengal 11,03,757 15 Maharashtra Jharkhand Maharashtra Delhi Maharashtra Maharashtra Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh 10,72,739 14 (12) (10) (10) (10) (13) (20) (13) Maharashtra 5,68,667 8 Gujarat Gujarat Karnataka Maharashtra Punjab Gujarat Punjab Haryana 3,90,937 5 (7) (5) (7) (5) (1) (20) (1) Gujarat 3,61,010 5 Total Total Total Total Total Total Total 2.27 million 0.15 million 0.12 million 1.82 million 0.17 million 1.98 million 0.95 million Punjab 3,52,537 5 [30] [2] [2] [24] [2] [27] [13] Assam 1,47,742 2 Figures in parentheses represent the share (%) of total interstate migrants from Bihar to a particular destination for a Chhattisgarh 1,43,216 2 particular reason. Figures in square brackets represent the total share (%) of migrants from Bihar moving for a particular reason. Source: Census of India, 2011. Source: Census of India, 2011.
22 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly COMMENTARY
of 2012−13 and 2017−18 data proves that Figure 1: Share of Agriculture in Bihar’s State Expenditure even with a broad defi nition of agriculture- 7 .60 dependent households in the later peri- 6 .50 Revenue expenditure Capital expenditure 5 od, there is a decline from 50.5% to 45%. .40 The fall in the share of agricultural 4 .30 households in rural Bihar is also because 3 .20 of increasing landlessness in the state. In 2 2003−04, 38.8% of the total households 1 .10
0 0 Share in total capital expenditure
in the state had no agricultural land Share in total revenue expenditure 2005– 2006– 2007– 2008– 2009– 2010– 2011– 2012– 2013– 2014– 2015– 2016– 2017- 2018– 2019– 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 (Rawal 2008). To address the situation (RE) (RE) (RE) (BE) of landlessness, the NDA government in Revenue Expenditure 2.3 2.8 3.5 4.5 4.6 5.3 4.1 5.8 5.1 4.7 4.2 3.5 3.5 3.4 4.0 the state had constituted the Bandyo- Capital expenditure 0.09 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.07 0.28 0.08 0.19 0.49 0.04 0.35 0.39 RE is Revised Estimates, BE is Budget Estimates. padhyay Commission in 2005. The com- Source: Data from Handbook of Statistics on State Government Finances, Reserve Bank of India. mission submitted its report in 2008. Figure 2: Number of Factories and Workers in Bihar, 2005−06 to 2016−17 However, under the pressure of lobbies 4,000 1,40,000 of big landlords, the report was not 3,500 1,20,000 2 per mov avg (factories) 3,000 implemented. The government had explic- 1,00,000 2,500 itly assured the big landowners of the 2 per mov avg (workers) 80,000 protection of their interests at all costs 2,000 60,000 (Kumar 2012). In fact, landowners, cutting 1,500 1,000 40,000 across the party and caste lines, including factories of Number 500 20,000
the ruling parties, led a campaign that factories in workers of Number 0 0 land reform of any kind would “lead Bihar 2005– 2006– 2007– 2008– 2009– 2010– 2011– 2012– 2013– 2014– 2015– 2016– 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 towards a civil war” (Kumar 2012). Factories 1,669 1,602 1,783 1,775 1,918 2,805 3,231 3,345 3,419 3,529 3,623 3,531 On the one hand, increasing landless- Workers 56,901 55,159 62,319 62,864 73,443 90,985 1,08,963 1,00,512 96,122 1,25,557 1,03,267 98,971 ness in Bihar pushed a large section of Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian States, Reserve Bank of India. the population away from agriculture, the displaced workforce from the farm Between 2005−06 and 2009−10, and on the other hand, by losing the pri- sector. However, the performance of there is no signifi cant growth in the ority in the state’s fi nance, agriculture Bihar in this area is no different than number of factories, but suddenly, this became unviable. By looking at the state’s the farm sector. The unemployment rate number rises in 2010−11 and 2011−12 to budget it appears that although agriculture of Bihar has gradually increased in the fi nally become stagnant after that. The got priority in the fi rst fi ve years (2005−06 period under consideration. It is also drop in the urban unemployment rate to 2010−11) of the NDA government, later important to note that urban unemploy- in 2011−12 is also because of the rise in on, it lost its priority in the policy frame- ment has always been greater than the number of factories in the state. work. The share of agriculture in the to- the rural unemployment (Table 4). In The number of workers in the factories tal revenue expenditure was 2.3% in 2017−18, the country as a whole has also increased proportionally between 2005−06 that gradually increased to 5.3% witnessed a massive rise in unemploy- 2005−06 and 2011−12, and then declined. in 2010−11. Afterwards, the proportion ment, and so has Bihar. However, what This trend refl ects that even when the declined until 2018−19. The budget esti- is extremely worrying is that the unem- number of factories increased, it hardly mate for agriculture in 2019−20 is ployment rate in Bihar (7.2%) was high- made any signifi cant impact on em- slightly more than the last year. The er than the average for the country ployment generation in the state. In the share of agriculture in the total capital (6.1%), according to the Periodic Labour period between 2011−12 and 2016−17, expenditure remained quite negligible Force Survey, 2019. the number of workers per factory ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY in the fi rst eight years in the reference There are three visible trends in the declined from 34 to 28. A labour surplus period from 2005−06 to 2019−20. A few state concerning the number of factories state such as Bihar requires those sectors spikes that are visible in Figure 1 either (Figure 2). that can primarily address the employ- coincide with election years or with the Table 4: Unemployment Rate in Bihar (%) ment crisis. Merely having more number post-fl ood years. The physical outcome, 2004−05 2009−10 2011−12 2017−18 of factories without adequate employment if any, from any such improvement in the Rural generation thus failed to absorb those Male 1.8 2.1 2.7 7.2 capital expenditure on agriculture re- leaving the farm sector, forcing them to Female 0.2 1.3 8.2 2.3 quires some more time to become visible. Overall 1.5 2 3.2 7.0 migrate to other states. Considering the limited growth of ag- Urban riculture, as explained above, one would Male 6.7 6.3 4.5 9.2 Conclusions then expect that the state government Female 4.1 16 16.5 6.2 Thus, although the continued outmi- Overall 6.4 7.3 5.6 9.0 would necessarily strengthen its non- gration from Bihar is the direct result Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian States, Reserve agricultural segment in order to employ Bank of India and Periodic Labour Force Survey, 2019. of the enormously unbalanced human
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 23 COMMENTARY
development in the country, the NDA central government that goes beyond wont-bring-back-its-stranded-migrants-despite- government in the state has hardly made the mere rhetoric of Atmanirbhar Bharat. centre-easing-travel-restrictions/1944391/. GoI (2019): “Agricultural Statistics at a Glance attempts to address the economic and notes −2018,” Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers political reasons underlying this sad Welfare, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, 1 Remittances in Bihar in 2007–08 accounted for Government of India. situation. It is clear from the arguments approximately 5.5% of the gross domestic Hindu (2020): “96% Migrant Workers Did Not Get made above that the prime reason for product. The only state with a higher fi gure for Rations from the Government, 90% Did Not remittances than Bihar is Kerala, which re- Receive Wages during Lockdown: Survey,” such heavy outfl ow from Bihar is the ceives large remittances from migrant workers 20 April, https://www.thehindu.com/data/data- absence of employment opportunities, in West Asia. 96-migrant-workers-did-not-get-rations-from- 2 In some cases, the objective to achieve upward the-government-90-did-not-receive-wages- both in the farm and the non-farm sec- mobility is also considered as one of the reasons during-lockdown-survey/article31384413.ece. tors. However, amidst the COVID-19 crisis, for migration. Kumar, A (2012): “Fallacy of the State in Bihar,” those who are hit the most belong to the Economic & Political Weekly, Vol 47, No 44, References pp 23−25. poor and socially backward vulnerable Pandey, T (2020): “Paid for Train Tickets with Final Chanda, A (2011): “Accounting for Bihar’s Produc- Savings, Say Migrant Workers from Bihar,” households. The state has not only abdi- tivity Relative to India’s,” working paper, Inter- India Today, 7 May, https://www.indiatoday. cated its responsibility towards providing national Growth Centre, https://www.theigc. org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Chanda- in/india/story/paid-for-train-tickets-with-fi nal employment opportunities to its citizens 2011-Working-Paper.pdf. -savings-say-migrant-workers-from-bihar-1675 197-2020-05-07. but also turned a blind eye towards Dutta, A (2020): “At 38,000, UP and Bihar Receive Most Number of Migrants through Special Rawal, V (2008): “Ownership Holdings of Land them in this time of crisis. Trains,” Hindustan Times, 7 May, https://www. in Rural India: Putting the Record Straight,” All households that are facing reverse hindustantimes.com/india-news/at- Economic & Political Weekly, Vol 43, No 10, 38-000-up-and-bihar-receive-most-number-of- pp 43−47. migration in Bihar, need immediate migrants-through-special-trains/story-Hvu5E- Rawal, V, K A Manickem and V Rawal (2020): “Are opportunities to earn cash. The state ICxP4L5AOwRtXSeaK.html. Distress Deaths Necessary Collateral Damage Economic Times (2020): “Lockdown in India Has of Covid-19 Response?,” Impact of COVID-19 needs to create opportunities of work for Impacted 40 Million Internal Migrants: World Policies in India, 14 April, https://coronapolicy- them, expand the scale of Mahatma Bank,” 23 April, https://economictimes.india- impact.org/2020/04/14/distress-deaths/. times.com/news/politics-and-nation/lock- Srivastava, R (2020): “No Relief for the Nowhere Gandhi National Rural Employment down-in-india-has-impacted-40-million-inter- People,” Hindu, 4 May, https://www.thehindu. Guarantee Act worksites, and also con- nal-migrants-world-bank/articleshow/753119 com/opinion/op-ed/no-relief-for-the-no- where-people/article31495460.ece. sider initiatives like cash transfers for at 66.cms?from=mdr. Financial Express (2020): “‘Not Enough Buses!’ Times of India (2020): “50% of Bihar Households least six months. It needs to provide dig- Why Bihar Won’t Bring Back Its Stranded Exposed to Migration: Study,” 15 February, htt- nity to its labour force. This certainly Migrants Despite Centre Easing Travel Restric- ps://timesofi ndia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/ tions,” 30 April, https://www.fi nancialexpress. half-of-households-in-bihar-exposed-to-migra- also would require the support of the com/india-news/not-enough-buses-why-bihar- tion-study/articleshowprint/74141815.cms.
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24 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly COMMENTARY Economic Cost of a Disease Economic Implication of Novel outbreaks bring with them a plethora of economic costs. Among the a Novel Disease Outbreak macroeconomic ones, direct costs such as provision of healthcare services, produc- Understanding Its Genesis tivity costs due to loss of human capital and productive time, and societal costs such as mass hysteria, are noteworthy. Unmilan Kalita, Arup Kumar Hazarika, Rajiv Kumar Bora, Subhash Khanna, Other ex post facto costs include losses to Tapash Kumar Barman the agricultural sector, tourism and travel, trade and retail industries, demographic Novel disease outbreaks have a ver 200 years ago, Alexander von impacts and environmental losses (Smith history of ravaging the regional Humboldt, an infl uential 18th- et al 2019). Since most of the novel out- breaks are zoonotic, agriculture and allied economies. The world economy Ocentury scientist, once explained the fundamental idea of nature stating activities suffer great losses. For instance, has taken a massive hit due to that the world is a single-interconnected after the 2000 Rift Valley fever virus out- COVID-19 and is expected to organism. A tiny variation in its ordinary break, West Asian nations banned imports go into a recession by the next workings bears the possibility of causing of meat from most African nations, lead- large ripples in other parts of this one ing to a 75% loss in meat exports amount- quarter. As such, it has become whole organism. With over 7,00,000 af- ing to $300 million. Similarly, the Ma- highly imperative to invest in fected people, more than 50,000 deaths laysian government lost almost $300 total epidemic preparedness and a looming recession, the 2019–20 million in exports after the 1998 Nipah involving health and non-health novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) out- virus outbreak. Besides, the 2003 severe break is nothing but a harsh reminder of acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epi- interventions, research and the supremacy of nature and the fallibil- demic cost the South East Asian tourism development as well as capacity ity of contemporary economic thought. industry approximately $4 billion, while building at all levels. The world has seen signifi cant progress the H1N1 infl uenza cost the Mexican in healthcare services and economic pre- tourism industry $2.8 billion. paredness since the Spanish fl u pandem- Trade and retail services also face dire ic of 1918, which infected approximately circumstances, with epidemics taking a 500 million worldwide, a quarter of the toll on national gross domestic products global population, of which about 50–100 (GDPs). The HIV/AIDS pandemic has cost million people lost their lives. This was the world economy more than half a followed by the Asian fl u (H2N2) pan- trillion dollars, with $562.6 billion being demic of 1957–58, the 1968 Hong Kong fl u expended on treatment and prevention (H3N2), 1977 Russian fl u and the 2009 between 2000 and 2015. African econo- H1N1 pandemic. While most of these mies realised severely declining gross novel outbreaks have been meticulously national product rates during the Ebola fought and successfully contained within outbreak, while developed Asian econo- spatial and temporal boundaries, the mies such as Hong Kong lost 2.6% of its Unmilan Kalita ([email protected]) is ripples created in the economic continuum GDP to SARS. Besides, environmental executive member and researcher from the Centre for Environment, Education and have been substantial, with major im- impacts pertain to loss of non-market Economic Development, India. plications in the form of sudden loss of goods as well as destruction of animal ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Arup Kumar Hazarika (chiefeditorclarion@ intangible human capital (Cohen 2002), habitats to prevent spread of viruses. gmail.com) teaches at the Department of recessional tendencies (Garrett 2007) Moreover, evidence points towards Zoology, Cotton University, editor-in-chief of and defi cit spending pressure on low- and drastic educational, psychological and the International Multidisciplinary Journal: The Clarion and director, CEEED, India. middle-income economies (Abegunde professional losses of consumers and their Rajiv Kumar Bora ([email protected]) is et al 2007). Much akin to these previous households. Implications from these range additional chief secretary to the Government epidemics, current global evidence fore- from wage loss due to decline in work hours, of Assam, India. Subhash Khanna casts signifi cant economic impacts ex contagion fear, poverty, food insecurity to ([email protected]) is chief post the current COVID-19 outbreak. large-scale unemployment. During the medical director, Swagat Super Speciality Surgical Research Institute and Dean, Swagat Therefore, we begin with a review of the Ebola outbreak, almost 16,000 children Academy of Medical Sciences, Guwahati, India. economic cost of a novel disease out- were orphaned. The 33-week lockdown Tapash Kumar Barman ([email protected]) break followed by a note on the current led to disruption in education and loss teaches at the Department of Chemistry, ventilator crisis, interventions to man- of livelihoods. Production and distribu- Assam Engineering College, Guwahati. age the pandemic and the conclusion. tion units were closed down, leading to
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 25 COMMENTARY apprehensions around food security. Un- Unfortunately, the supply is diminishing fast, ignorance and lack of awareness, transform trained medical personnel were made to with suppliers not having enough invento- a novel outbreak into a “virtual pandemic.” operate in quarantine facilities. These ry to meet the demand. This crisis is simi- Social responses are “societal reactions to are just some of the myriad impacts of larly being seen in Europe and other devel- disease outbreaks” (Fast et al 2015: 2) that an epidemic at the micro level. oped nations. For easy understanding, we range from anxiety, panic to violence, riots Concerning COVID-19, the United Nations have christened this situation as the “venti- and migration. Societal panic during the Conference on Trade and Development has lator crisis.” To what do we owe the emer- SARS pandemic had cost the Chinese tour- stated that the “economic uncertainty it has gence of this widespread market failure? ism industry approximately $20.4 billion sparkled will likely cost the global economy It is of little doubt that policymakers (Dombey 2004) and a more than 50% $1 trillion in 2020” (WEF and UN 2020). and governments worldwide were aware reduction in retail sales. Making this a reality, the European econo- of the necessity of preparing for the next In its active phase, the foremost policy my will be slowly sliding into recession by pandemic since the 2002 SARS epidemic. prescription for managing this “virtual the next quarter as the Italian and German The importance of developing affordable pandemic” is limiting the spread of the economies are particularly fragile. Besides, healthcare equipment and drugs, quick re- disease itself while downscaling social re- the Latin American economy is very vul- sponse systems, and consistent budget al- sponses towards it. Managing the econom- nerable, with the Argentinian growth rate location towards sustaining good health- ic burden of its aftermath would require falling sharply. In Asia, Singapore is head- care standards was unnervingly felt (Noyes economy-wide stimulus for demand shocks. ing for a large recession with its GDP 2002; Bigham et al 2009). Owing to this, Such shocks need to focus on augmenting shrinking by 10.6%. China, dubbed as the production was ramped up in the US by a consumption to neutralise unspent inven- “world’s factory,” is experiencing a sharp government fi rm for a short period until it tory and irregular supply shocks. Boosting decline in its industrial production and was taken over by a major corporation, consumer confi dence in dairy and live- manufacturing due to widespread lock- which later sidelined it for not being suffi - stock products as well as tourism-related down and ban on movement of people. ciently profi table to the company. The cor- exports will be essential. After the out- The Association of Southeast Asian Na- poration had excess capacity to produce break recedes, there will be high consumer tions+3 tourism economy is currently fac- cheap ventilators, which was left unuti- demand for food products and medicines, ing a major slowdown, with both interna- lised. Pharmaceutical companies down- while that for durables will fall substan- tional and intranational movement being scaled their efforts on developing a vac- tially. Besides, a phase of high unemploy- banned following contagion fear. cine, as they believed their profi ts would ment would be observed in the short term, It is important to note here that the fail- be hurt in the prospect of a cure. Besides, which has to be addressed by well-designed ure of pandemic preparedness has its price across most of America and Europe, uni- fi scal stimulus focusing on those people too. Unpreparedness may cause massive versal healthcare was given less attention. that were mostly affected by the pandem- economic costs compared to having a Its dire implications have been realised now ic. Multistakeholder handholding is essen- sure-footed strategy in place. This is high- because of the tremendous demand for tial during this crisis period, wherein all lighted by the ventilator crisis that is cur- ventilators during COVID-19. This is one of stakeholders will have to cooperate on rently ongoing in the United States (US). the many outcomes of a neo-liberal capi- agreements and legislations for outbreak talist regime where the underlining motive containment and preventions (Sivaram- Capitalism and Ventilator Crisis is maximising corporate profi ts (Brown akrishnan 2011), which include interna- With the high incidence of COVID-19 2003). Global warming (Clémençon 2010), tional monetary and trade agreements as amongst the world population, an increas- high economic inequality (Cummins 2018), well. In 2017, the World Bank took a lead in ing need for healthcare equipment has been market failure (Hursh 2005) and stagna- this regard by introducing pandemic bonds realised by all the nations, especially the tion of real wages (Montgomerie 2007) are to support their Pandemic Emergency Fi- US and Europe. Studies confi rm that more some of the other outcomes. With greater nancing Facility (PEF) so as to channel than 30% of hospitalised COVID-19 patients privatisation of healthcare, marginal sec- critical funding to countries with high pan- ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY are likely to need mechanical ventilation tions have been pushed into an abyss of demic risk. Finally, establishing an epi- for recovering (Pan et al 2020). However, negative net worth. Therein lies the gene- demic emergency fund in line with the a drastic shortage of ventilators has come sis of the COVID-19 ventilator crisis. Pandemic Contingency Fund of the World to the fore. Hospitals in the US have roughly Health Organization for fi ghting future 1,60,000 ventilators, which is not enough Interventions disease outbreaks is the need of the hour. for treating the ever-increasing number of A very important factor leading to the high COVID-19 infected patients (more than economic impact of novel outbreaks is the Conclusions 10,20,000). Unable to handle this, the gov- fear of contagion. The world has become a It is of little doubt that novel disease out- ernor of New York recently put out a plea for small place with enormous internet and breaks such as COVID-19 gather immense 40,000 ventilators that cost $25,000 each. media connectedness that span not only potential to have an impact on several sec- Further, the demand for drugs, anaesthet- social networking but also secondary tors of a national as well as the global econ- ics and sedatives required for ventilator markets and transnational supply chains. omy. Rapid urbanisation, fast increasing patients has increased by 51% in the US. Adverse social responses, mixed with international travel and climate change
26 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly COMMENTARY render these outbreaks into pandemics, Clémençon, Raymond (2010): “Pushing Past Neo- Consumer Debt-led Growth,” Neo-liberalism, liberalism: Rethinking Global Climate Change State Power and Global Governance, Dordrecht: making them a global phenomenon. Negotiations,” Routledge Handbook of Climate Springer, pp 157–72. Therefore, at this pressing time amidst the Change and Society, Constance Lever-Tracy (ed), Noyes, Jane (2002): “Barriers That Delay Children COVID Oxon: Routledge, pp 453–72. and Young People Who Are Dependent on emergence of -19, which has brought Cohen, Desmond (2002): “Human Capital and the HIV Mechanical Ventilators from Being Discharged humanity to the brink of an existential Epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa,” International from Hospital,” Journal of Clinical Nursing, Labour Organization Working Paper, Geneva: ILO. crisis, it has become highly imperative Vol 11, No 1, pp 2–11. Cummins, Ian (2018): “Poverty, Inequality and Pan, Feng et al (2020): “Time Course of Lung to invest in total epidemic preparedness Social Work: The Impact of Neo-liberalism and Changes on Chest CT during Recovery from Austerity Politics on Welfare Provision,” Policy involving health and non-health inter- 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID–19) Pneumo- Press, Bristol University. nia,” Radiology, Vol 295, No 3, https://doi. ventions, research and development as Dombey, Olivier (2004): “The Effects of SARS on org/10.1148/radiol.2020200370. the Chinese Tourism Industry,” Journal of well as capacity building at all levels. Vacation Marketing, Vol 10, No 1, pp 4–10. Sivaramakrishnan, Kavita (2011): “The Return of Epidemics and the Politics of Global–Local Fast, Shannon M, Gonzalez, Marta C and Natasha Health,” American Journal of Public Health, References Markuzon (2015): “Cost-effective Control of Infectious Disease Outbreaks Accounting for Vol 101, No 6, pp 1032–41. Abegunde, Dele O, Colin D Mathers, Taghreed Adam, Societal Reaction,” PloS one, Vol 10, No 8. Smith, Kristine M, Catherine C Machalaba, Rich- Monica Ortegon and Kathleen Strong (2007): Garrett, Thomas A (2007): “Economic Effects of the ard Seifman, Yasha Feferholtz and William B “The Burden and Costs of Chronic Diseases in 1918 Infl uenza Pandemic: Implications for a Mod- Karesh (2019): “Infectious Disease and Eco- Low-Income and Middle-Income Countries,” ern-Day Pandemic,” Federal Reserve Bank of St nomics: The Case for Considering Multi-Sectoral Lancet, Vol 370, No 9603, pp 1929–38. Louis Working Paper No CA0721, Washington, DC. Impacts,” One Health, Vol 7, https://www.ncbi. Bigham, Michael T et al (2009): “Ventilator-associ- Hursh, David (2005): “Neo-liberalism, Markets nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6330263/. ated Pneumonia in the Pediatric Intensive Care and Accountability: Transforming Education WEF and UN (2020): “This Is How Much the Coro- Unit: Characterising the Problem and Imple- and Undermining Democracy in the United navirus will Cost the World’s Economy, Accord- menting a Sustainable Solution,” Journal of States and England,” Policy Futures in Educa- ing to the UN,” World Economic Forum, Swit- Pediatrics, Vol 154, No 4, pp 582–87. tion, Vol 3, No 1, pp 3–15. zerland, www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/ Brown, Wendy (2003): “Neo-liberalism and the End of Montgomerie, Johnna (2007): “The Logic of Neo- coronavirus-covid-19-cost-economy-2020-un- Liberal Democracy,” Theory & Event, Vol 7, No 1. Liberalism and the Political Economy of trade-economics-pandemic/.
result in such a drive for unlawfully Encroachments on the encroaching large tracts of public land, mainly for real estate and cultivation Waterbodies in Tamil Nadu purposes. We can understand this pro- cess through one instance in Muda- laipatti village of Kulithalai taluk from S Rajendran Karur district close to the Kaveri ayacut area (the area served by an irrigation Tamil Nadu has many ecurrent droughts in Tamil Nadu project such as a canal, dam or a tank). legal provisions to protect have prompted initiatives for Over the years, around 50 villagers slow- its waterbodies. However, R saving and deepening of surface ly encroached on 39 acres of a water-re- waterbodies to increase their storage taining tank bed covering 198 acres. encroachment on waterbodies is levels. However, such efforts get marred Owing to poor rainfall for many years, rampant and many encroachers by a strong presence of land-grabbers, the village tank did not fi ll fully and are resorting to violence to who do not hesitate even from killing. became an easy target for local villagers Attacking, implicating in false cases, to encroach upon to grow banana, coco- silence those who oppose them. harassing, frequent transfers, etc, of the nut, oilseeds, pulses, and fl owers. A few Recurrent droughts in the state upright offi cials, informants, social wor- village elders revealed that this tank necessitate that these waterbodies kers, activists, and journalists who expose was endowed with rich fl ora and fauna be restored and protected, and encroachments of the common property of reed, nutgrass, edible tubers, fi sh, resources (CPRs), including waterbodies, crab, and snail, and after encroachment, ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY encroachments are removed. have become common, while perpetrators these disappeared. If the tank is fi lled,1 are protected and supported. It suggests a in addition to Mudalaipatti, the ground- strong nexus between land-grabbers, local water table in the surrounding six vil- leaders, bureaucrats, and political repre- lages—Posampatti, Adavathur, Ettarai, sentatives. Tamil Nadu has 41,127 tanks. Mullikarumbur, Palayam, and Inampuli- According to an estimate, the area irrigated yur—will be recharged. by these tanks has reduced from 9.36 lakh The author is thankful to S Ramaswamy and hectares (ha) in 1960–61 to 4.38 lakh ha in Grabbing of the Poramboke K Sivasubramanian for their comments and 2015–16 (Narayanamoorthy and Alli 2018). A local farmer from Inampuliyur village, Kodiarasu for fi eld support. One of the factors attributed to this loss is who grew rose and jasmine on their S Rajendran ([email protected]) is with the encroachment of the waterbodies. 1 acre plot, along with his son opposed the Department of Economics, Gandhigram Increasing industrialisation, urbanisa- this encroachment by approaching dis- Rural Institute, Tamil Nadu. tion, and a market-driven economy, all trict authorities. Their repeated pleas
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 27 COMMENTARY over 15 years went unheard. They app- have been initiatives to revive kudima- also increasing the groundwater levels. roached the Madurai Bench of Madras ramathu for the repair of irrigation Water users’ associations are meant to High Court for relief, and the court dire- tanks, although it is still to be seen how take care of the waterbodies in a “bot- cted the eviction of the grabbers in 2018. much these will revive the practice in tom-up” mode. The Tamil Nadu Farm- Consequently, offi cials marked illegally spirit (Rajendran 2018). ers’ Management of Irrigation Systems occupied land and houses constructed Despite several court rulings for the Act, 2000 enables the formation of such on the poramboke.2 Sensing the threat of removal of encroachments on different associations with farmers as members in eviction, a few sold their conditional CPRs, in most cases, these were not foll- the ayacut area. Unfortunately, elections patta lands at throwaway prices. To di- owed. There are specifi c acts to protect for these people-centric democratic in- vert the public attention and discourage CPRs, but these have not prevented enc- stitutions are long due. the authorities, a temple with a budget of roachment. The Tamil Nadu Land Enc- Besides making such institutions func- `1.5 crore was constructed right on the roachment Act, 1905, Tamil Nadu Land tion effectively, it is also important that tank bund. Further, the enraged en- Encroachment (Amendment) Act, 1965, the competent authorities prevent land- croachers killed both the father and son. and the Tamil Nadu Protection of Tanks grabbing and encroachment of water- The court took suo motu cognisance and and Eviction of Encroachment Act, bodies, and carry out time-bound in- issued a notice for prompt evictions to 20073 are a few such acts. However, quiries and take appropriate punitive restore the waterbody. This indeed led these are frequently bypassed, and there measures upon receiving complaints. A to evictions. are many instances of granting pattas to comprehensive survey of CPRs, includ- Article 48A of the Constitution says such encroachers.4 Building structures ing poramboke lands, is essential to that the state shall endeavour to protect on waterbodies blocking their fl ow lead- quantify the extent of illegal encroach- and improve the environment and safe- ing to waterlogging and inundation dur- ment. Under any circumstances, such guard the forests and wildlife of the ing rains has become a common phe- commons, particularly water structures, country. Unfortunately, it is the state nomenon (Sivasubramaniyan 2018). should not be allotted for other pur- which most often violates this article. In A revealing example of fl outing of poses and appropriate amendments the above-cited instance as well, the rules is that of the state forest depart- should be made in the existing acts to state had diverted 30 acres to establish a ment that planted karuvel (black babul), deal with it. Absence of support to those horticulture farm on the north-western encroaching on 100 acre area of the Ka- who are opposing encroachments and side of the irrigation tank. Article 51A(g) risalkulam tank (spread over 207 acre) fall victim to the violence by the en- makes it a fundamental duty of every in Amarapoondi, Palani taluk of Dindig- croachers is unfortunate. citizen to protect the environment, inc- ul district on a 10-year contract. Despite luding the CPRs. the trees being 15 years old now, the for- Notes Earlier in Tamil Nadu, the responsi- est department has not cleared the trees. 1 In addition to rainwater, supply comes from PWD Kattalaimettu Channel of Mayanur barrage in bility and authority of the maintenance Though the has allotted `15 lakh for Kaveri. and management of waterbodies were desiltation under kudimaramathu, these 2 Poramboke refers to public land used for com- munity purposes like irrigation, cattle grazing vested with people. Any disputes related standing trees affect the renovation and threshing. to misuse were settled at the village work. In another case, a few large pow- 3 Clause 12 of this act states that “the govern- level. Over the years, ownership has erful farmers encroached upon a portion ment may, in the public interest, alienate any part of the poramboke land under the control been transferred to the state, which of tank land and laid pucca road across of PWD without interfering with storage capac- undermined and sidelined the role of the Vangumadai tank in panchayat in ity and water quality.” Using this, and bypass- ing the core of the act, pattas are granted on local communities. The offi cials do not Andipatti taluk of Theni district, despite the CPRs. have a comprehensive idea about the complaints that this will obstruct water 4 As is clear through government order Nos 854 (30 December 2006), 498 (5 November 2007), local dynamics of politics, including fl ow during the rainy season and bunds 711 (30 November 2007), 34 (23 January 2008), confl icts and cooperative efforts by vil- could get breached. 43 (29 January 2010) and 372 (26 August 2014). ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Benefi ting the encroachers on waterbodies, thus, lagers in maintaining and protecting However, there are also instances is a clear violation of the public trust doctrine. waterbodies. Although the Madras Wa- where after realising the signifi cance of ter Board Act, 1930 had provisions for saving and maintaining waterbodies, References kudimaramathu (maintenance and re- encroachers left the land without con- Narayanamoorthy, A and P Alli (2018): “Time to pair of waterbodies by the people by fl icts and the locals with their efforts re- Focus on Water Management,” BusinessLine, 14 August, https://www.thehindubusinessline. contributing labour mostly during off- stored the waterbodies, which not only com/opinion/time-to-focus-on-water-manage- farm season), the government was un- provide them drinking water but also ment/article24691680.ece. Rajendran, S (2018): “Tamil Nadu Revives Kudima- willing to transfer waterbodies to the recharged the groundwater. ramathu: Ancient Wisdom of Water Manage- village panchayats (Rajendran 2018). ment,” Economic & Political Weekly, Vol 53, Conclusions No 6, pp 18−20. Since 1949, the public works department Sivasubramaniyan, K (2018): “Structure, Function- (PWD) took over its control. Over time, It is important to harness the heavy rain- ing and Impact of Irrigation Institutions: The Case of Tank Irrigation in Tamil Nadu,” ICSSR people lost interest and the locals with fall by preserving the waterbodies and Project Report, Madras Institute of Develop- power encroached upon the CPRs. There increasing their storage capacity, thereby, ment Studies, Chennai.
28 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly Nehru’s Enlightened Middle Way
Rajeev Bhargava
t is a cliché that a deep division exists review article Indian people” and therefore “victory between the idea of India and of (jaya) to Bharat Mata can only mean IBharat Mata. One is meant to be sec- Who Is Bharat Mata? On History, Culture and ‘victory to the these people’” (p xxxii). ular, liberal, modern, rational, open- the Idea of India: Writings by and on Jawaharlal This is vintage Nehru. He does not aban- minded, without qualms about learning Nehru, edited and with an introduction by Purushottam don the term, treat it disrespectfully or Agrawal, Speaking Tiger, New Delhi, 2019; pp 474, `359. from the West, even from imperial Britain, casually. He redefi nes it. Given this ref- and is associated with those who speak erence of the term, one disrespects mother English. The other is religiously nationalist, genius of India—“to avoid extremes and India when one oppresses these people, majoritarian, traditional, illiberal, con- follow the enlightened middles” and in exploits, demeans, marginalises, excludes, servative, narrow-minded, anti-Western, doing so gave new, virtually identical humiliates or mistreats them. These anti-Muslim and associated with Hindi sense to the two phrases, India and nasty acts can be performed by insiders speakers. The main exponent of the fi rst Bharat. The difference lay in two fea- as much as outsiders. Imperial Britain is perceived to be Jawaharlal Nehru. tures in language and more importantly, disrespected Bharat Mata (for instance The other is vigorously promoted by the in their emotional resonance (p xxxii). when it reduced millions of Indians to main ideologues of the current govern- The idea of India can be discussed, penury or refused them political free- ment. No wonder, Nehru is the greatest debated, deliberated upon but is not doms), but so does any one section of ideological enemy of Hindutva. And it revered. It is hard to love, or be devoted India harming another (caste, gender, seems that for the moment Bharat Mata to it. Bharat Mata, on the other hand, and religion-related domination). Mother is winning hands down. can be adored, sung about, painted, India is harmed when any part of it is Purushottam Agrawal, editor of the sculpted, danced to, saluted, ritualised. In harmed. It also follows that the term book under review, agrees entirely with some contexts, for certain purposes, it cannot be used in a deeply diverse coun- the assessment that Nehru and Hindutva might uplift one. But the main content of try such as ours as a “violent challenge ideologues are pitted against one another. one is not any different from the other and to the integrity of any religious group of But, in this outstandingly curated collec- both crystallise a forward-looking nation, this nation or anyone who uses some tion of essays and speeches by Nehru, he yet rooted in tradition and heritage other metaphor to express his or her love dismantles the framework within which (p xiii). To differentiate them as if they for the country” (p xxxiii). Bharat Mata this debate occurs.1 For Nehru, Bharat belonged to distinct species creates a is wedded to India’s rich diversity. Mata is simply a different vehicle to false dichotomy, with enormous social Agrawal concludes that for Nehru this express the idea of India supported by him. and political consequences. also answers the other deep question In the introduction that precedes the that is frequently raised by cynics about selection of Nehru’s writings on history, Who Is Bharat Mata? the stability, identity or authenticity of culture and the idea of India, Agrawal Agrawal is among the fi rst to take India as a nation state. These critics fail carefully shows that he was equally seriously the question “Who is Bharat to realise that the Indian people are con- sensitive to the need of Bharat Mata in Mata?” The “who” question seeks the ducting a great self-experiment. They the Indian discourse. For Nehru, “Bharat reference of the term. This is different have put before themselves a diffi cult ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Mata” was a way of fl eshing out the idea from asking the equally important ques- task to transform “an ancient and con- of India. Differences between the two tion: “What is Bharat Mata?” The “what” tinuing civilization into a modern nation exist, no doubt, but similarities too question can be answered by asking state defi ned by diversity, accommodation abound. Both refl ect an ideal, a social what Bharat Mata means, its real and and the best, most humane and enlight- and ethical vision of a people—secular desired characteristics, what it is and ened elements of both tradition and mo- though not anti-religious, modern but not what it should be. The “who” question dernity” (p xxx). This is their chosen des- scornful of tradition, diverse but mind- tells us where these features are found, tiny, their purpose, why they are there at ful of the requirements of unity, willing who its bearers are. For Nehru, as all. Implicit then in Nehru’s vision of the to learn from but not blindly imitative of Agrawal shows, Bharat Mata is not an nation is that it is a deeply different peo- the West, eschewing all hatred for the ancient Vedic goddess or a reifi ed tran- ple, self-consciously bound together by British but emphatically anti-imperialist, scendental idea to be worshipped. It is common or overlapping concerns about liberal and non-liberal, but not illiberal. only secondarily embodied in territory. their past, present and future. This self- In short, Nehru’s thinking expresses the Rather, it refers to “these millions of conscious awareness of commonality is
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 29 REVIEW ARTICLE not genetically encoded. Nor does it drop an “enlightened” middle. Furthermore, satisfactory to either claimant but may from the sky but grows when people talk this middle has no “conceited claims of still be reason ably satisfactory to both. and listen to one another and, through fi na lity.” We, humans, must eschew an Such multi- value thinking encourages oral and written communication, under- emphatic conception of truth. This, ac- accommodation—not the giving up of one stand each other. So I would add, the cording to Agrawal, is what the best of value for the sake of another, but their objective of nation-building cannot be Indian tradition has taught us. reconciliation and possible harmonisation achieved unless people saw themselves Following the enlightened middle does so that apparently incompatible concepts as engaged in actual or potential conver- not mean sitting on the fence, being and values may operate without changes sation. It is entirely apt to say that a wishy-washy, or arriving at a bad, inde- to their basic content. nation exists only as long as there is fensible compromise. It means balancing This endeavour to make concepts, a continuous conversation among its competing and equally valid claims, acco- viewpoints, and values work simultane- members about what it was, is, will and m modating them, and tempering ado- ously does not amount to a morally obje- should be. lescent revolutionary zeal. It means not ctionable compromise. This is so because A disruption of this conversation is the abolition of everything given but, as the nothing of importance is being given up undoing of a nation. Anyone uninterested German philosopher, Hegel, who surely for the sake of something less signifi cant, in this conception because he already learnt a thing or two from Indian ways something without value, or even with has a preconceived notion of what it of thinking, called dialectical overcom- negative value. Rather, what is pursued should be is already a disruptor, working ing. Cancelling the past and yet preserv- is a mutually agreed-upon middle way against the nation. Those who do not ing it; not a radical break with the past that combines elements from two or more want to converse with others show a or with tradition but its reappropriation equally valuable entities. The roots of such deep disregard for it, make a virtue of not by giving it a different meaning. attempts at reconciliation and accom- showing consideration or compa ssion for Let me elaborate. Nehru was committed modation lie in an absence of dogmatism, others. They think of self- restraint and to a certain model of contextual moral in a willingness to experiment—to think civility, the prerequisites of conversation, reasoning, a form of reasoning that at different levels and in separate spheres as a mark of weakness. Such disruptors, accepts that all reality has a moral dimen- and in a readiness to make and accept espousing a uniform Hindu Rashtra, are sion and that this morality consists of decisions on a provisional basis. The pur- undoing the Indian nation, causing it multiple values. To accept its multi-value suit of this middle way captures a way of enormous harm, straying from its chosen nature is to acknowledge that its consti- thinking characterised by the following purpose. Those who want to build a tutive values do not always sit easily dictum: “Why look at things in terms of purely Hindu nation have generated with one another. On the contrary, they this or that, why not try to have both this notions “out of ignorant fantasies of the frequently confl ict. and that?” (Austin 1993). past or distorted imaginations of the fu- Some degree of internal discord, and This non-dogmatic thinking is an ture” (p xxxviii). Such ideas stem from a therefore a fair amount of instability, is aspect of Indian tradition that is worth deep unease with one’s past, traditions, an integral part of all ethical problem- keeping alive. Indeed, it must be conti- even one’s own religions and spring solving. Because of this, moral reasoning nuously reinvented. It is fundamentally from an acute sense of insecurity, lack of forever requires attempts at reconcilia- non-ideological. Ideologies contain clear self-confi dence and massive inferiority tion and compromise. No general a priori directives for action; that indeed is their complex (p xxx). Only this explains why rule of resolving these confl icts exists, function. But such directives are neces- such people want a break from the past no pre-existing hierarchy among values sarily short-lived. They change as the situ- and unthinkingly emulate the West. that enables us to decide that, no matter ation changes on the ground. An ideo- what the context, a particular value must logical dictum is fi xed but valuable only Go for the Enlightened Middle override everything else. Each time the when temporarily so. To turn into a gen- The other equally important point in matter presents itself differently and it eral principle and shift it to the core of our ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Agrawal’s introduction is about Nehru’s will be differently resolved. If this is moral thinking is foolish. When people do mode of thinking. And all said and done, true, our moral understanding cannot this, they stop thinking because they allow this is what made him quintessentially be straitjacketed into well-delineated ideology to do the thinking for them. There Indian (p xxxiii). In the dialectic of and explicitly stated rules (Taylor 1994). are, alas, no ready-made answers for life’s thought, one may go from one extreme This form of thinking recognises that most important problems. Every little thing to another, but eventually one should confl icts between individual rights and has to be thought through. All claims settle down somewhere in the middle. group rights, or between equality, liberty, have to be examined. All relevant inter- But not just any middle position. The key and fraternity cannot always be adjudi- ests taken into account, all values factored word here is “enlightened.” If one has cated by recourse to some general and in. Thinking cannot be simple-minded or really thought through the issue, really abstract principle. Rather, they can be innocent but complex, sophisticated, ex- or imaginatively experienced all crucial settled only case by case and may require perienced. And good practice must be sides of the matter, actually felt the pull a fi ne balancing of competing claims. The guided not only by this kind of situational of opposites, then one would arrive at eventual outcome may not be wholly thinking but by persuasive argument,
30 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly REVIEW ARTICLE consensus-seeking and moral judgment. there are no theological, social or political less attention than it deserves.2 He Nehru exemplifi ed this approach. incentives to block it. For example, believed that we use “secular” and call translation becomes impossible if one our state a secular state, because we Religion and Secularism assumes that there is irreducible non- have not yet found a better term. What is This way of thinking was illustrated in equivalence of the terms sought to be his conception of the secular state? First, Nehru’s conception of nationalism but translated if two terms simply can never the state cannot identify with any single can also be illustrated by Nehru’s views refer to the same entity. So, here we con- religious ethics or declare it to be the on religion and secularism. front two irreducibly different entities. state religion. The ethical ends of any one Nehru was unhappy with the term If the worlds centred on the two entities religion, no matter how lofty, cannot “religion.” In his An Autobiography (1936), are incompatibly different, then one can become the ends of the state. This goes he says “The word ‘religion’ has lost all either live in one or in the other, not in fundamentally against the grain of precise signifi cance (if it ever had it!) both. This results in a very different multi- plurality. The state may be nourished by and only causes confusion and gives rise theistic universe without conversation, a all or by none. Even if the majority of a to interminable debate and argument. It world peopled by groups that are inter- country owes allegiance to one of them, would be far better if it was dropped from nally intimate but fundamentally and so that the general climate is coloured as use altogether.” Why? Because for Nehru irreconcilably estranged from one another. he believed India’s is with the Hindu religion referred both to (i) ethical teach- This happens when we work with an ethos, the state should not be Hindu. He ings of self-realisation and fulfi lment emphatic conception of truth such as was particularly critical of the “Hindu which humans who wish to lead a good there is only one true or real God and all Rashtra.” Or a Hindu nation state. life cannot do without (pp xxv–xxviii) other gods are seen to be false. It may sound very nice to some people that and to (ii) particular insti tutionalised, This distinction between those who we will create a Hindu Rashtra but I cannot power-laden, status- ridden and doctri- follow true religion and believers in understand what it means. Hindus are in the nalised systems of beliefs and practices false religion (them and us) can slide majority in this country and whatever they wish will be done. But the moment you talk sharply demarcated from and hostile to easily under some circumstances into a of a Hindu Rashtra, you speak in a language other similar systems. For Nehru, this sec- radical difference between friend and which no other country except one can ond conception of religion was a source enemy. The enemy outside (infi del) and comprehend and that country is Pakistan of discord and violence. He respected the enemy within (heretic). Add to this because they are familiar with this concept. the fi rst dimension of religion, and found the need to keep one’s fl ock together and They can immediately justify their creation of an Islamic nation by pointing to the world its other dimension repugnant. Hence his you have rigidly guarded boundary, a set that we are doing something similar. … ambivalence for the term. He wished to of well-armed gatekeepers. Nehru was Hindu rashtra can only reduce the status of disentangle its two senses but since they fi rmly against this way of thinking about those who are not Hindus. … You may say had become virtually inseparable, he religion. Religion must continue to con- patronisingly that you will look after the Muslims or Christians or others … but do wanted to drop the term altogether. But note multiple, intercommunicating, eth- you think any race or individual will accept given its general acceptance, he obvi- ical teachings. In that sense, he himself for long the claim that they are looked after ously could not. This is why he concluded partook of religion in one sense (an ethics while we sit high above them? (Gopal and that “the use of the same word with dif- which related to something morally higher Iyengar 2003) ferent meanings makes mutual compre- than humans but was independent of Thus, since all states in the modern hension still more diffi cult.” gods and God). He knew that there are era are nation states, Nehru opposed all The most important feature of ethical many such religio-ethical world views narrow nationalisms, including religious teachings in India is its multiplicity and and each is equally important to meet the ones. In religiously diverse societies, all fl uidity, its “pantheistic atmosphere” challenge of “spiritual emptiness facing religious nationalisms are exclusionary. (p xxviii). Religion as ethical teachings our technological civilisation” (p xxvi). Second, a secular state cannot be anti- was not a closed system. Being open, it This religio-philosophical culture was religious. It is not a state where religion ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY did not discourage people from seeking entirely responsible for India’s celebrated as such is discouraged, or pushed into solution from other, very different ethical diversity, tolerance and respect for dif- oblivion. How could he indiscriminately teachings. It encouraged multiple belong- ference. On the other hand, religion in oppose religion or espouse its absence, ing and easy movement from one to the other sense, a comprehensive ideology given his acknowledgement of the the other because the Indian thought pertaining to spiritual, ethical, social indispensability and value of the ethical environment encouraged translation from and political matters with its institutional dimension of religions? He also appreci- one system to another. This is possible if hierarchies and that is associated with ated that since many faiths express them- every “ethic of self-realisation,” that one group sharply demarcated from selves publicly, a secular state must accept includes both god-dependent and god- other rival groups is deeply problematic the public presence of ethical Reli gions. free ethics can be treated as a way of and must be continually be called into There should, he insisted, be “free play relating to the ultimate, in whichever question, challenged. for all religions.” A secular state must way the latter is defi ned or understood. Nehru was similarly dissatisfi ed with protect freedom of religious beliefs and This translation can continue as long as “secular,” a term to which Agrawal pays practices, including, of course, freedom
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 31 REVIEW ARTICLE
for those who have no religion in the Our civilisation, our customs, our laws have all partly from how we have imagined our conventional sense such as atheists. been made by man and he has taken good care past, particularly our recent past. Indeed, Nehru goes a step further and to keep himself in a superior position and to How have we handled the awful treat the woman as chattel and a plaything to says that it must honour all faiths equal- be exploited for his own advantage and amuse- events leading to the partition of the ly and give them equal opportunity. ment. Under this continuous pressure the subcontinent and the violence that foll- This is the duty of a secular state in a woman has been unable to grow and develop owed? If not offi cial, at the very least, religiously diverse society. her capacities to her fullest and then man has our unoffi cial memory of recent past is But what should a secular state do in blamed for her backwardness. (Iyengar 2007) patchy and selective. Ethics has played relation to the power-laden dimension of Since, many of these customs (purdah, an important role in its construction, but organised religion? How should it respond ghunghat) and laws (marriage-related the moral psychology that underlay it to its power hierarchies, its dogmatic laws) are bound up with religion, a secu- has probably been simple-minded. The doctrines, to inter-religious rivalries, hate lar state must challenge such religious unoffi cial default policy of the state is speech and inter-religious violence? practices (Iyengar 2007). “let bygones be bygones, to forget the First, if religious tensions and confl icts A third instance of intra-religious bitter recent past” and to move on. The surface, then a secular state must ensure domination to which he draws attention reason is the fear that “there is a dragon that all religious communities be at peace is the domination of ordinary persons by living on the patio and we had better not with one another, that there be, to use religious clerics, the ability of bigots and provoke it.”3 If memory of suffering is Gandhi’s term, “communal harmony.” fanatics to hold them captive. kept alive, will not reprisal occur in Second, it is the duty of a secular state to Brahmins are prepared to march shoulder to future, opportune moments? Forgetting undermine inter-religious domination. shoulder with the Maulvies, the priests from is necessary for civic peace. Such a view Since communalism consists largely in the Ghats fraternise with the mullahs from has a long pedigree. fostering inter-religious rivalry or domi- the mosques against any freedom and equal- For instance, Thomas Hobbes argued nation, a secular state must oppose com- ity-oriented internal reform. (Gupta 2006) that suppression of memories of past munalism, regardless of whether it stems Given this socially oppressive and po- wrongs was essential because if society from the minority or the majority. Unlike litically meddlesome stance of religious is treated as a building made of stones what is widely believed, “Nehru opposed elites, Nehru argued that the “high then some stones that have an “irregu- both majority and minority communal- priests of religion cannot take decisions larity of fi gure take more room from oth- isms, both full of admiration for Hitler” on social and political questions.” Thus, ers” and so must be discarded. Hobbes’s (p xxix). Indeed, it is the duty of both a secular state must also inhibit the covenant was a device to incorporate min ority and majority communities not continuing attempt by the high priests of social amnesia into the foundation of to jeopardise the ideals of a secular state. religion to impose their views and norms society. But this view runs into two Yet, a minority community, more vulner- on ordinary men and women. problems. First, forgetting cannot be able in a democratic polity needs protec- brought about intentionally. Of the many tion from majoritarian domination, and On Cultural Amnesia Arabs, Turks, Persians and Afghans who therefore solely for this purpose it must be Now, to come to the last major issue. arrived, only some came as invaders bet- given community-specifi c minority rights. Agrawal rightly points out that Nehru ween the 8th and 18th centuries, but for Third, since religion is also ridden with understood that no political community many Hindus, all Muslims continue to intra-religious domination—a condi tion can live without cultural amnesia. have the mindset of invaders who can at in which some members of a religious Memory defi nes individual and collective any time kill, destroy and convert them. community oppress, exclude, discriminate identity. It implies a serious moral responsi- The conquest of Quebec by the English against, humiliate and degrade other bility of choosing what to remember and what happened more than two centuries ago mem bers of their own community. He to forget … If nurtured merely emotionally, but for Quebec nationa lists their nation- without any rational negotiation of the past provides three forms of such domination. alist project “involves a reconquest of ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY and an ethical imagination of the future, The fi rst was religiously justifi ed inter- memory leads to disastrous delusions. The the conquest.” A large part of nationalist caste domination, the ugliest expression cultural memory of India cannot be narrow agenda all over the world, Michael Igna- of which is the practice of untouchability. and exclusionist. (p vii) tieff rightly reminds us, is about settling Nehru says that “the word secular I agree almost entirely with the thought old scores. In so many countries, people conveys something much more to him, and feeling underlying these statements. remarkably similar in essential respects although that might not be its dictionary I believe it also captures Nehru’s own appear to go at each other’s throat simply meaning—the idea of social and political understanding of the need and ethical because once upon a time one ruled over equality.” A state that encourages or tol- uses of collective memory. How else do the other. A simple strategy of forgetting erates such deeply inegalitarian, casteist we understand his monumental effort in has simply not worked. Besides, it is to practices is not secular (Gopal and Iyengar writing the Discovery of India? Yet, this live in a fool’s paradise to imagine that 2003). Second, against gender-based is precisely where we need to pause to as grievances recede into the past and are discrimination. As early as 1934, address- refl ect deeper on this issue because many half-forgotten, they will somehow cease ing Prayag Vidya Peeth, he said of our current problems stem at least to be real. As Ignatieff puts it “Collective
32 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly REVIEW ARTICLE Myth has no need of personal memory brings with it a society haunted by its trust, respect and faith of people “the or experience to retain its force” (1993). past. One canot forget entirely, too soon hard way, without catering to their Only an appropriate engagement with and without a modicum of justice. More- baser instincts and phony sentiments” the past makes then for a liveable com- over, while specifi c acts of wrongdoing (p xxxvii). And therefore, they fully un- mon future. If not properly addressed need to be forgotten eventually, a gen- derstand that “to have lasting success, grievances and resentments resurface. eral sense of the wrong and of the horror they must distort his memory, tarnish his Forgetting past wrongs anyway fails of evil acts must never be allowed to image, belittle his towering personality to achieve its putative objective, a point recede from collective memory. Such re- and erase his imp ression from the Indian to which Jeremy Waldron (1992) has membering is crucial to the prevention mind” (p xiii). Not able to answer the drawn our attention: of wrongdoing in the future. charges against him or fi ght this calumny,
When we are told to let bygones be bygones, So, while Agrawal is right about it is up to us, those who passionately we need to bear in mind also that the for- Nehru’s understanding of the ethics of admire his thought but can still dispas- getfulness being urged on us is seldom the memory (we need to make ethical judg- sionately see his fl aws (p xxxvii), to res- blank slate of historical oblivion. Thinking ments about what to remember or for- cue his subtle and complex thoughts quickly fi lls up the vacuum with plausible get), I do not think in practice he got the from Hindutva’s onslaught. The need is tales of self-satisfaction, on the one side, and self-deprecation on the other. balance right. We have not engaged greater because unlike what many think appropriately enough with our recent they remain relevant in India today. Benefi ciaries of injustice then come to bitter past. In short, I do not think we At a time, “when we are divided like believe that gains accrue to them due to have properly addressed the wrongs that never before and where an educated the virtue of their race or culture, and occurred on either side of our current public is misinformed like never before,” victims too easily accept that their mis- borders or those committed largely a necessary book such as this could not fortune is caused by inherent inferiority. against Muslims in post-independence have come from a better scholar. Second, it is doubtful if forgetting is a India. More discussion, deliberation, good strategy for repairing wounds or acknowledgement, proper memorialisa- Rajeev Bhargava ([email protected]) is with achieving reconciliation. When a person tion is necessary. Is it all Nehru’s fault? the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies and director of its Institute of Indian Thought. is wronged, he is made to not only suffer I recall an event where the poet Faiz physically but is mentally scarred, the Ahmed Faiz was asked to recite one of Notes most injurious of which is the damage to his famous poems. Now, Faiz had a 1 The book covers a large ground—on India’s his sense of self-respect, if he is left with heavy Punjabi accent which, in the eyes past and future, its domestic and foreign poli- cy, on nationalism and the national movement, any residue of it. As Jeffrie Murphy (1990) of many, did not quite do justice to his on philosophy, literature and science, on culture, own Urdu poetry. So, one of the listeners religion and spirituality. In fact, one whole sec- points out, when a person is wronged tion is devoted to how he is viewed by signifi - he receives a message of his marginality could not help saying to him, “Faiz cant others from Gandhi to Vajpayee. In this and irrelevance. The wrongdoer conveys sahib, you write so well, why don’t you review, I focus only on a few of these topics. 2 For a detailed account, see Bhargava (2017). that in his scheme of things the victim recite equally well?.” Faiz immediately 3 Quoted from Rosenberg (1997). counts for nothing. Since self-esteem retorted. “Sab ham hi karen, kuch tum References hinges upon critical opinion of the other, bhi karo” (Is it my responsibility to do everything, don’t you think you must do Austin, G (1993): The Indian Constitution: Corner- the message sent by the wrongdoer sig- stone of a Nation, New Delhi: Oxford University nifi cantly lowers the self-esteem of the something too!’) This could well be Press. wronged. The demand that past injus- Nehru’s reply to his political followers. Bhargava, Rajeev (2017): “Nehru against Nehruvi- ans: On Religion and Secularism,” Economic & tices be forgotten does not address this We who love, respect and follow Nehru Political Weekly, Vol 52, No 8, 25 February. loss of self-esteem. Indeed, it infl icts have not done enough to carry his legacy Gopal, S and Uma Iyengar (eds) (2003): Jawaharlal Nehru: The Essential Writings of Jawaharlal further damage. further and are currently paying a heavy Nehru Volume 1, New Delhi: OUP. To be sure, former victims and frag- price for this neglect. Gupta, Nand Lal (ed) (2006): Jawaharlal Nehru on ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Communalism, Gurgaon: Hope India Publications. mented societies eventually need to get Agrawal’s edited collection, with a Ignatieff, M (1993): Blood and Belonging, New on with their lives rather than be con- lucid and elegant introduction could not York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. sumed by their past suffering. Victims be more timely. Nehru was no unthinking Iyengar, Uma (2007): The Oxford India: Nehru, Oxford Indian Collection. need to forget just about as much as they Westernised intellectual. He was not con- Jawaharlal, Nehru (1936): An Autobiography, need to remember. But real forgetting temptuous of Hindu traditions or for that Oxford University Press. Murphy, Jeffrie G (1990): “Forgiveness and Resent- comes with addressing wrongs and ac- matter any religious tradition. He was ment,” Forgiveness and Mercy, Jeffrie Murphy knowledging past injustices. People who not blindly anti-religious or pure-secular. and Jean Hampton (eds), Cambridge. Rosenberg, Tina (1997): Dealing with the Past, Alex carry deep resentment and grievance But he was fi rmly against the ideological Boraine, Janet Levy & Ronel Scheffer (eds), against one another are hardly likely to vision of Hindutva and no one knows this Cape Town, 66. better than Hindutva ideologues. They Taylor, Charles (1994): “Justice after Virtue,” After build a society together. I believe timing MacIntyre: A Critical Perspective on the Work of is the essence of the issue here. Forget- know that he was loved and admired Alasdair MacIntyre, J Horton and S Mendus ting too quickly or without redressal, by even by his critics (pp xv–xvi). They hate (eds), Polity Press. Waldron, Jeremy (1992): “Superseding Historic failing to heal adequately, inevitably him precisely because he earned the Injustice,” Ethics, Vol 103, No 1, pp 4–28.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 33 PERSPECTIVES
relevance of university degrees. This chan- Measuring Access, Quality and ged scenario is leading to overqualifi ed, under-skilled unemployed youth that, in Relevance in Higher Education turn, is creating dissent and disillusion- ment. This is true for India and a few other developing Commonwealth coun- Pankaj Mittal, Anjali Radkar, Anitha Kurup, Ashwani Kharola, tries that have retained the colonial model Bhushan Patwardhan of higher education, with little change to meet the contemporary challenges. Gross enrolment ratio is a widely niversities as centres for creation Against this background, there is a need accepted indicator to measure and transmission of knowledge to reimagine Indian universities based on our own history and culture relevant the level of participation in Uplay a key role in building a symbiotic relationship between the nation to contemporary needs and future trends education. It is proposed that the state and society. Over the last two dec- (Patwardhan 2020). eligible enrolment ratio could ades, the interest of fi rst-generation be a better indicator instead. learners in higher education in India has Higher Education in India led to redefi ning the teaching–learning Traditionally, universities in India were A study of fi ve-year data of 10 process, making it more inclusive for the established to focus on promoting schol- different countries highlights disadvantaged population that is entering arship and freedom of thought. The cen- its signifi cance. In addition, the portals of higher education. There- tres of higher learning such as Taxila (fi fth it is also critical to reimagine fore, we need a strategy that respects century BC) and Nalanda (sixth century equity in higher education while ex- BC) thrived in a climate of eclecticism, higher education as beyond panding the vocational education verti- freedom, and cross-cultural kno wledge- general university degrees, cal and realigning employment oppor- sharing spanning philosophy, arts, and develop a complementary tunities being created by the new humanities social and natural science vertical of equal status of skill and knowledge economy. Higher education (Kurup and Singai 2017). The colonial in a country provides the much-needed period in India witnessed a transformation vocational education and enhance impetus for growth and development, of native traditional higher education in employment opportunities. thereby benefi ting both the individual response to the expectations of the rulers and society (Haas and Hadjar 2019). during the period. The Westernised con- The rapid expansion of higher education struct of universities established by the across the world has led to an increased British rule in India in 1857 at Madras, number of universities and colleges, Calcutta, and Bombay were institutional thereby providing greater access to post- transplants from Great Britain (Basu secondary education to a large number 2012). Macaulay, in his minutes on Indian of students (Declercq and Verboven 2018). education in 1835, described that the As enrolment trends in higher education purpose of the universities in India was Views expressed in this article are exclusively showed a steep rise, competing countries to produce “a new generation of English- of the authors and do not represent those of focused on increasing student enrolment speaking Indians loyal to the British crown their affi liated organisations. in an attempt to catch up with the devel- to act as an army of clerks” (Evans 2002). The authors are thankful to Medha oped countries. However, real growth Post-independence India had the twin ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Deshpande, Shivali Tukdeo, Shailaja Chandra and development are possible only when challenge of increasing literacy rates on and Philip Altbach for reviewing the drafts and offering constructive suggestions. the quality and relevance of higher edu- the one hand, and promoting the devel- cation is assured. While expanding the opment of science and technology by Pankaj Mittal ([email protected]) is with the Association of Indian Universities, facilities for higher education, suffi cient building institutions of excellence in the Delhi. Anjali Radkar (anjaliradkar@gmail. attention must be paid to the basic purpose higher education sector on the other. com) teaches at the Gokhale Institute of of higher education. The initial focus remained on expanding Politics and Economics, Pune. Anitha Kurup There is an urgent need to balance the the formal education base, and school ([email protected]) is at the National demand and supply of educated human- education received the maximum at- Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. Ashwani Kharola ([email protected]) power through an optimal enrolment tention. However, in the last three dec- is with the Association of Indian Universities. policy (Boes and Pfl aumer 2006; Lukka ades, India witnessed an unprecedented Bhushan Patwardhan (bpatwardhan@gmail. 1974). The disconnect between the higher expansion of the higher education sector. com) is associated with the University Grants education sector and the evolving employ- At present, the higher education sector Commission, Delhi. ment market raises a question about the consists of 37.4 million students, across
34 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly PERSPECTIVES 993 universities, 39,931 colleges, and the number of universities that increased privileged despite affi rmative action, 10,725 stand-alone institutions as com- 3.87 times, colleges that increased 3.12 pose serious setbacks to realise the fun- pared to 0.2 million students and up to times, and the inc rease in the number of damental right to education. Gender-rel- 20 universities in 1950−51 (AISHE 2019). students being 3.65 times. However, the ated factors such as early marriage, India claims to be the third-largest Indian GER for higher education remains childcare, and domestic responsibi lities, system in the world after China and the lower than the current global average of availability of toilets and distance of the United Sates (US) in terms of enrolment, 29. There are several reasons for this. school from home, especially for girls, and largest in the world in terms of the We discuss here various issues related coupled with family labour, economic number of higher education institutions. to the increasing GER, as well as its rele- constraints and the disconnect of educa- This expansion is characterised by “islands vance to India. tion with their daily lives have remained of excellence in a sea of medio crity” We have studied fi ve years’ (2013−17) real obstacles for access and retention in (Altbach 2014). Inequalities of different data for 10 selected countries across the schools among the poor. This situation kinds characterise the higher education world, including developed, and develop- leads to signifi cant school dropouts, sector in India. For example, the types of ing and populous countries. Considering drastically reducing educationally eligible institutions, institutions of excellence, the fact that no unexpected variations in population for enrolment in higher edu- public universities, private universities, data are observed, we have taken data of cation, resulting in a lower GER in high- and deemed to be universities refl ect the 2017 as a reference year. The GER values er education for India. Obviously, this inequalities of resources, fi nancial and in higher education show that developed problem cannot be resolved by increa- human, along with the skewed distribu- nations such as the US, United Kingdom sing the number of colleges or universi- tion of students that represent different (UK) as well as emerging economies ties or by promoting degrees through caste, class, gender, and urban and rural such as Brazil and Indonesia are ahead distance or online mode. For a mean- background. There is a need to reform of India (Table 1). ingful inc rease in the GER, it is necessary Indian higher education by linking it to Various factors such as enrolment, re- to improve the quality of school education the changing employment needs at local, tention, and completion of secondary and link higher education to skills and national, and global levels. Thus, it is school education are known to infl uence vocation, thereby making it attractive to crucial to address the quality of education the GER in higher education of a country the student population. and its relevance while planning an ex- (Gao and Chen 2010). Currently, India is pansion to increase access to higher edu- facing serious challenges due to low Appropriateness of GER cation. In India, successful completion of enrolments and retention at the school In India, only 26.3% of the students in the 12th grade at the higher secondary level. Additionally, as witnessed recently, the relevant age group (18−23 years) are school level is basic eligibility for enrol- the enormous number of migrant labour- enrolled in the institutions of higher ment in higher education. Therefore, eli- ers brings with it the challenge of the education. The GER in higher education gibility for higher education also needs to education of their children, which are for India is lower as compared to devel- be consi dered while measuring its access. not suffi ciently recognised or addre ssed. oped nations because a large population Furthermore, the contradictions and of students in the relevant age group is Access to Higher Education contestations of the formal schoo ling simply not eligible to enrol in colleges The gross enrolment ratio (GER) is a uni- system, which is struggling to close the because they have not successfully com- versally accepted indicator for analysing gap between the marginalised and the pleted the 12th grade higher secondary enrolments in higher education (Wu et education. Hence, focusing on the exp- Table 1: Comparison and Inter Alia Difference al 2019). Typically, GER is the ratio of the between GER and EER ansion of higher education to increase number of enrolments in higher educa- No Country Gross Eligible Inter Alia Wage and GER is misplaced. In other words, India Enrolment Enrolment Difference Salaried tion to the total population in the age Ratio (GER) Ratio 2017 Workers (%)* needs to focus on increasing the number 2017 (EER) 2017 2016 group of 18−23 years. Generally, a high of students completing higher secondary ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY 1 US 88.2 93.5 5.3 90.1 GER indicates a high degree of participa- schools, thereby enabling an increase 2 Germany 70.3 91.2 20.9 89.6 GER tion. The in higher education drasti- 3 France 65.6 75.5 9.9 88.1 in the number of students eligible for a cally differs in developed and developing 4 UK 60.0 63.1 3.1 84.5 college education. It should also be noted countries. According to the All India 5 Brazil 51.3 78.6 27.2 68.1 that the availability, accessibility, afford- Survey on Higher Education (AISHE) 6 China 49.1 72.9 23.8 63.6 ability, as well as quality of higher edu- data, the GER in higher education has in- 7 Indonesia 36.4 57.7 21.2 48.9 cation and its relevance for employment creased from 19.4 in 2010−11 to 26.3 in 8 India 27.4# 64.9 37.5 20.9 have a signifi cant bearing on GER. 2018−19. India has made signifi cant pro- 9 South Africa 22.4 46.6 24.2 84.8 It is against this background that we gress in higher education during the last 10 Pakistan 9.4 43.3 33.9 38.9 hypo thesise that GER may not be the three decades. The inc rease in the GER *Wage and salaried workers’ total (% of total employment) appropriate measure or indicator for modelled by the International Labour Organization (ILO) of India in this decade is almost double estimate. developing countries like India because from 13.2 in 2003 (Thorat 2006). There # Value as per AISHE data is 26.3. of a large gap between the number of Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNESCO Institute seems to be a proportionate expansion in of Statistics data. students available in the age group of
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 35 PERSPECTIVES 18−23 and those eligible, inter alia, to Figure 1: EER and Difference in EER and GER, 2017 than India. A deeper enter in higher education. 2013 study is necessary to un- 100 2014 2015 2016 derstand the underlying Eligible Enrolment Ratio 80 2017 reasons for this. Average difference We propose that the eligible enrolment in EER and GER India ranks at number 60 ratio (EER), based on the eligible popula- six with the EER as an tion in the relevant age group, may be 40 indicator for access, two considered as a more appropriate indicator positions up as of the GER. to measure the access to higher education. 20 Thus, our results suggest The EER can be defi ned as the ratio of that for countries like In- 0 US Germany Brazil France China India UK Indonesia South Pakistan EER the number of students enrolled in higher Africa dia, can be consid- education to the number of students who Source: Authors’ calculations based on UNESCO Institute of Statistics data. ered as an appropriate in- have successfully completed 12th grade of higher education access values across dicator for measuring the level of partici- in the age group 18−23 years. The EER the countries is valid only when they pation in higher education. computed in this manner seems to be a are at par at the juncture of enrolment. The difference between GER and EER more fair and judicious measurement of Therefore, we compared the EER thus obt- is less than 10 percentage points for most enrolment as it focuses on eligibility and ained to the GER of respective countries. developed countries, which indicates a optimises the precision of the indicator. It was observed that the increase in both relatively stable and mature education As the data on the number of students the GER and EER was gradual during the system. For emerging economies, it is who have passed 12th grade in the rele- fi ve years of 2013−17 across all the se- between 20 percentage points and 30 vant age group is not readily available, we lected countries. However, the absolute percentage points. It should be noted used data relating to completion rate (CR). difference between the EER values of that the difference between the GER and According to the United Nations Educa- developed and developing countries was EER for India is 37.5 percentage points tional, Scientifi c and Cultural Organiza- much smaller than the difference in the for 2017, the highest of all 10 countries. tion (UNESCO) Institute for Statistics, CR is GER values of the same countries. This This high difference between the GER defi ned as the number of persons in the scenario probably emerged due to the and EER indicates a huge gap between relevant age group who have completed fact that the measure of EER enables the the “population eligible” and “eligible the last grade of a given level of education comparison of these countries on a level population.” In India, a slight improve- expressed as a percentage of the total playing fi eld. Therefore, we suggest ment in this difference over the period population of the same age group (Loeb that the application of eligibility as a of fi ve years is observed. This could be and Duff 1974). Therefore, EER can be condition might provide a better realistic attributed to the success of government expressed in terms of the equation, picture to know the correct level of par- programmes, which may have resulted GER ticipation for higher education. in reducing dropouts and retention at EER = CR A graphical representation of the fi ve- higher secondary levels. The gap in the This equation has been used for deter- year EER for the selected countries and GER and EER can be further narrowed mining EER of 10 different countries, differences in the GER and EER for 2017 is down only when the school system is fur- both from developed and developing shown in Figure 1. Ideally, in a good edu- ther strengthened. economies of the world. The data on GER cation system, the difference between and CR was collected from the databank the GER and EER should be minimum. Higher Education Perspective of the UNESCO Institute for Statistics for The smaller the gap between the GER We question the rationale of GER as a the period of fi ve years from 2013 to and EER, the better the quality of the stand-alone parameter to measure the 2017. The missing data for CR was calcu- education system as a whole. A specifi c level of participation in higher education lated using a forecasting tool incorporat- comparison between the GER and EER for developing countries like India, ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY ing a linear regression model (Nadler for 2017 along with inter alia difference where the problem is not much about and Kros 2007). The 2017 CR for the UK between them is shown in Table 1. The access to higher education, but it is about and US are about 95%, France 87%, and ranking of the GER and EER of the top- the state of school education. The problem Germany 77%. Interestingly, 2017 CR for two and bottom-two countries has not India is 42.3%, indicating the maximum changed. Interestingly, it is seen that limit for GER. This means that even if both the GER and EER are high for de- 100% of those completing the 12th grade veloped nations, such as the US, Germany, available at GER GER enrol for higher education, still the and France. Indonesia’s (36.4) is Delhi Magazine Distributors cannot be more than 42.3%. higher than India; however, its EER (57.7) Although, GER is internationally ack- is less. Pakistan remains the last among Pvt Ltd 110, Bangla Sahib Marg nowledged measure of enrolment, it needs selected courtiers both in GER (9.4) and EER EER New Delhi 110 001 some standardisation and correction to (43.3). Surprisingly, the of the Ph: 41561062/63 portray a valid scenario. A comparison UK is exceptionally low, in fact, even lower
36 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly PERSPECTIVES of a large number of dropouts in the that only a third of them complete their Education Policy (NEP), 2019 has rightly school needs to be addressed fi rst as graduation, yet many of them are emp- recommended multiple entry and exit these are the potential entrants to high- loyed. Therefore, it is necessary to exa- options with a focus on liberal educa- er education. In India, the real bottle- mine the different forms of completion tion as well as skills and vocation. The neck in higher education is an insuffi - of education that accommodate the Nati onal Academic Credit Bank pro- cient number of students who are eligible varying ability of students. posed by the University Grants Com- for entry into university education. As per Trow (2006), developed coun- mission (UGC) may provide a formal There is a need to recognise that in India tries portray universalisation of higher structure to ensure smooth transfer and the shift from education to work starts education as an important direction for redemption of credits to get degrees as from the age of 15 years in search of live- the future. However, whether this is the per students’ convenience. lihood. The National Sample Survey right direction remains a key question. Agreeably, the quality of higher edu- Offi ce (NSSO) and the Periodic Labour In the Indian higher education landscape, cation must be the hallmark of policy for Force Survey (PLFS) 2017–18 data reveal students have a very limited opportunity any country. Countries like the US are that 15.6% of the population of the age of continuing education of their interests able to effectively manage the knowledge group of 15−19 had entered into the at their own pace. It was worrying to economy and also draw a large number labour market. Among these, 11.6% were note that the difference between the GER of international students because of high working and 4% were looking for a job. and EER in India was about 38 percent- quality education linked with skills and The compulsion of early entry into the age points, which was the highest among employability. One of the reasons for the labour market is mainly caused by poverty. 10 countries studied for comp arison. high GER for developed countries is in- This also explains why countries like This indicates the poor state of the ternationalisation, which needs to be the US have remained at the top in the school system linked to lesser access to factored. Many developed countries, list, both in terms of the GER and EER. higher education. especially the US, Australia, and the UK, The difference between the GER and EER attract a large number of international was less than 10 percentage points for Alternate Career Paths students. The World Bank data for 2017 developed countries. This indicates the There is a need to develop attractive al- shows that among the total enrolled stu- success of their higher secondary school- ternate career paths linked to skills and dents, 17.9% in the UK, 10.2% in France, ing system. A study of the US youth con- vocational education that will equip stu- and 8.4% in Germany are international ducted in 2002 and 2012 shows that over dents for employment and career ad- students. In 2017, among the enrolled 84% of them had enrolled for some post- vancement. Unfortunately, in India, international students in the world, 19%, secondary course. The same data fur- there is only one form of completion, that is, close to one-fi fth, were enrolled ther reveals that 33.3% had completed that is, successful graduation. Those in the US alone. It must be noted that the a bachelor’s degree; 8.7% received an who are unsuccessful, do not get any number of international students also associate’s degree while the remaining form of certifi cation based on the credits contribute to enrolments in the respective 42% got some undergraduate certifi cate earned, which can help these students in countries. As against this, in India, the (Lauff et al 2014). The same distribution getting suitable employment. It must share of enrolment of international stu- of university students in the US shows be mentioned that the draft National dents is just 0.1%. This may explain the
Technology and Society August 24, 2019 ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Narratives of Technology and Society Visioning in India —Pankaj Sekhsaria, Naveen Thayyil India’s Green Revolution and Beyond: Visioning Agrarian Futures on Selective Readings of Agrarian Pasts —Richa Kumar Whose Knowledge Counts? India as a Reluctant Leader in Agroecological Research —C Shambu Prasad The Fight against Mosquitoes: Technoscientific Vision of Advanced Biological Control —Mahendra Shahare Technology Vision 2035: Visions, Technologies, Democracy and the Citizen in India —Pankaj Sekhsaria, Naveen Thayyil Collective Dreaming: Democratic Visioning in the Vikalp Sangam Process —Ashish Kothari For copies write to: Circulation Manager, Economic & Political Weekly, 320–322, A to Z Industrial Estate, Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai 400 013. email: [email protected]
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 37 PERSPECTIVES higher values of the GER and EER in the quality, and relevance to higher educa- References US and UK as compared to countries like tion. The EER might be a refi ned meas- AISHE (2019): “All India Survey on Higher Educa- tion 2018−19,” Department of Higher Education, India. It will require more in-depth ure to position developed and develop- Ministry of Human Resource Development, study to know the extent of the impact of ing cou ntries on the same plane and, Government of India, New Delhi. Altbach, P G (2014): “India’s Higher Education the number of international students on therefore might portray a fairer picture Challenges,” Asia Pacifi c Education Review, the GER and EER values. about the enrolment in higher educa- Vol 15, No 4, pp 503−10. tion. More over, in an era where lifelong Basu, A (2012): “Indian Higher Education: Coloni- alism and Beyond,” Dependence to Autonomy, P Relevance and Employability learning facilitates continuously chang- G Altbach and V Selvaratnam (eds), Higher education cannot be viewed in ing empl oyment opportunities, it is high Dordrecht: Springer, pp 167−86. Boes, S and P Pfl aumer (2006): “University Student isolation, because its relevance is one of time to reconsider the current notion of Enrollment Forecasts by Analysis Structural the most important proximate determi- an age-linked GER. Ratios Using ARIMA-methods,” Allgemeines Statistisches Arch, Vol 90, pp 253–71. nants of employment. World Bank data for The future of learning is undou- Declercq, K and F Verboven (2018): “Enrolment 2016 shows that the percentage of wage btedly in blended pedagogy compris- and Degree Completion in Higher Education without Admission Standards,” Economics of and salaried workers in developed coun- ing face-to-face, distance, continuing, Education Review, Vol 66, pp 223−44. tries is in the range of 85% to 90%, digital and online modes of delivery. Evans, S (2002): “Macaulay’s Minute Revisited: Co- lonial Language Policy in Nineteenth-century which is just 20.9% in India. Data One must not forget that quality online India,” Journal of Multilingual and Multicul- collected in various rounds of NSSO and education not only needs technology tural Development, Vol 23, No 4, pp 260−81. PLFS substantiates it. Higher education is but a robust curriculum and pedagogy Gao, Y and R S Chen (2010): “Empirical Analysis of the Correlation of Factors Impacting on the refl ected to a great extent in the inability to facilitate independent learning. Scale of Higher Education Based on Gross En- of the degree holders to get a job. The However, online education need not be rollment Rate,” Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol 2, pp 4070−73. NSSO and PLFS (2017−18) data shows that, used as an easy tool merely to increase Haas, C and A Hadjar (2019): “Students Trajectories while the overall unemployment among the GER. Such steps may be detrimental, Through Higher Education: A Review of Quan- titative Research,” Higher Education, Vol 79, the population over 15 years was 6%, unless the quality, relevance, skills, pp 1099–1118. it was much higher among graduates and employability issues are suffi ciently Jelic, O N and M G Kedzo (2018): “Effi ciency vs Ef- fectiveness: An Analysis of Tertiary Education (17.2%) and those qualifi ed postgraduate addressed. across Europe,” Public Sector Economics, and higher degrees (14.1%).1 We should make efforts to improve Vol 42, No 4, pp 381−414. NEP Kurup, Anitha and Chetan Singai (2017): “Redefi ning One of the objectives of the draft the quality of school education as University Education in India: Pedagogy and 2019 is to increase the GER to at least 50% well as access and relevance to higher Student Voices,” Transforming Teaching and Learning in Higher Education: Towards a by 2035. For that to happen, enrolments education to contribute towards na- Socially Just Pedagogy in a Global Context, need to be more than 6.8 crore, that is, tional development and improve inter- Ruksana Osman and David J Hornsby (eds), Switzerland: Palgrave Critical University Studies, more than double of the current enrol- national competitiveness. We may need pp 175−90. ments. This is not possible without incr- to deglamourise general education Lauff, Erich, Steven J Ingels and Elise M Christo- easing the population eligible for entry degrees and give social recognition/ pher (2014): Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS: 2002): A First Look at 2002 High into higher education. Also, the moot point prestige and equal or even higher School Sophomores 10 Years Later, US Depart- is ensuring the absorption of this edu- status to skill and vocational training. ment of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. cated population in meaningful employ- A renewed strategy of bridging blue- Loeb, J and F Duff (1974): “Graduate Student Co- ment or empowering them to be self- and white-collared education may help hart Data for Individual Advising and Resource Allocation,” Research in Higher Education, employed. For this to happen, India will enhance the employment opportunities Vol 2, pp 325−40. have to ensure a judicious balance be- in India and abroad. This will probably Lukka, A (1974): “Optimal Enrolment Policy for Higher Education,” Zeitschrift für Operations tween quantity and quality. The qua lity be a great tribute to the vision of a Research, Vol 18, pp 121−29. of teachers, innovative curricula, and rapidly emerging young and aspiring Nadler, S and J F Kros (2007): “Forecasting with Excel: Suggestion for Managers,” Spreadsheets contemporary pedagogical practices are new India. in Education, Vol 2, No 2, pp 212−31. the backbone of the quality of higher ed- Patwardhan, B (2020): “Re-imagining Indian Uni- ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY ucation, which must get policy priority. versities: Learning from the Glorious Past for Note Building New India,” Re-imagining Indian Any desperate attempt to increase GER Universities, P Mittal and S R Pani (eds), New 1 Unemployment Rate (UR) according to Usual Delhi: Association of Indian Universities. in higher education without improving Status (ps+ss) among 15+ Population Thorat, Sukhadeo (2006): “Higher Education in quality, relevance, and requisite skills Year Unemployment Rate in % among Persons with India Emerging Issues Related to Access, Inclu- might result in increased unemployment, Higher Education Degrees siveness and Quality,” Nehru Memorial Lec- Graduates Postgraduates Total ture, 24 November, University of Mumbai, social unrest and may not allow us to and above Mumbai. reap expected benefi ts of the demo- 2004−05 8.9 8.1 2.3 Trow, M (2006): “Refl ections on the Transition from Elite to Mass to Universal Access: Forms graphic dividend. 2011−12 7.6 7.5 2.1 and Phases of Higher Education in Modern 2017−18 17.2 14.6 6.1 Societies since WWII,” International Handbook Conclusions of Higher Education, James J F Forest and Philip G 1 ps+ss: Principal Status and Subsidiary Status Altbach (eds), Dordrecht: Springer, pp 243–80. We propose that, for India, EER would be 2 Unemployment Rate is computed as: Wu, S J, D F Chang and H Hu (2019): “Detecting the ( ே௨ ௬ௗ ௦௦ (௦௦ ) ) *100 Issue of Higher Education Over-expanded the most appropriate indicator rather ்௧ ௨ ி ( ௦௦ ௐା௦௦ ) under Declining Enrolment Times”, Higher Ed- than mere GER for assessing the access, Source: National Sample Survey Office. ucation Policy, doi:10.1057/s41307-019-00163-z.
38 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly SPECIAL ARTICLE
Divergent Responses to the Forest Rights Act in Nagarahole Disenchantment and Assertion
Priya Gupta
The Adivasi communities of Nagarahole Tiger Reserve, It is becoming diffi cult [for me] to live here. My parents have become old living here in this pathetic condition. We will also become like Karnataka have engaged with the implementation of them if we live here. Where is the guarantee that in future our chil- the Forest Rights Act and have primarily responded in dren will fi ght for their rights and get them? —Madesha, respondent two divergent ways: disengagement from the FRA and No one [would] go out of [the] forest [of] their own will. The Forest claiming rights over ancestral lands as a mechanism of Department forcibly sent us out. [...] If they give [back] those lands redressal and/or assertion. These two cases are where we used to cultivate earlier, we [will be] ready to go. [ ...] We have fi led an application asking them to return our ancestral property. examined against the background of a long history of We are ready to go back there and take care of our land. evictions from the forests of Nagarahole and the —Shetty, respondent infrastructural and sociopolitical conditions present hetty and Madesha,1 Adivasis of Nagarahole Tiger Reserve inside and outside the settlements, including the (NTR), expressed completely contradictory views on what living within the forest entails. Madesha, who is a presence of various non-governmental organisations. S Jenu Kuruba, and Shetty, who is a Yerava, both live on the The FRA’s success has been limited (and even negative), as periphery of t he reserve. However, as illustrated in the quotes its generic, centralised framing and implementation above, their attitudes to living within the forest differ dramati- have been unable to fully take into account specific cally. While Madesha is keen to leave the forest due to the problems he and his family face inside it, Shetty wants to histories, socio-economic conditions, and political reclaim his lost land and move back into the forest. Their discourses, especially those of conservation advocates views were echoed by various Adivasis of NTR with whom I and Adivasi rights activists. interacted during my fi eldwork in 2014–15. T his paper explores the varied responses of Adivasis living in and around NTR to the prospect of living within the forest as offered under the Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act, 2006, also known as the Forest Rights Act (FRA). The implementation of the FRA in NTR provides the background against which I explore their responses. I argue that while the FRA aims to address “historical injustices” done to the Adivasis by existing exclusionary forest laws, its implementation and effective- ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY ness—and the choices available to particular Adivasi commu- This paper is based on 13 months of fi eldwork carried out during 2014–15 nities—are circumscribed by contextual conditions, such as in NTR, Karnataka, as part of my doctoral thesis at the National Institute their specifi c histories, and the socio-economic contexts and of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru. I thank Rufford Foundation for funding political discourses that prevail in a particular setting. I n this my fi eldwork in NTR. I am also grateful to all my respondents who took case, “specifi c histories” refers to the eviction of Adivasis the time to interact with me. I also thank my advisor, Carol Upadhya, NTR s and my colleagues at NIAS, Krupa Rajangam and Savitha Suresh Babu, from from the 1970 onwards due to wildlife conserva- for reading and commenting on multiple drafts of this paper, and the tion policies. “Socio-economic contexts” include infrastruc- anonymous referee for their constructive comments and suggestions on tural facilities available within and outside the forests as well the earlier version of this paper. I also thank Anjan Katna for helping me as the presence of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) prepare the map. working on Adivasi rights and conservation issues. By Priya Gupta ([email protected]) is a PhD scholar at the National “political discourses,” I refer to a dominant set of ideas about Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru and Manipal Academy of Adivasi life that has framed the political struggles around for- Higher Education, Karnataka. ests in the region.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 39 SPECIAL ARTICLE This paper draws on ethnographic fi eldwork that I carried report (2016), in several regions, such as Gadchiroli district, out among diverse social actors as part of my doctoral research Maharashtra, Biligiri Rangaswami Temple Tiger Reserve, on confl icts between Adivasi rights discourses and forest Karnataka, and Dindori district, Madhya Pra desh (MP), com- conservation policies and practices. The intention of this munity rights were successfully established (CFR–LA 2016). The research is not to simply compare the responses of different report also claims that local communities stopped commercial groups to the FRA and thereby identify the factors that deter- forestry in many areas where community forest rights were mine its acceptance or rejection, but instead to provide a confi rmed (CFR–LA 2016: 13). H owever, it also notes that, in many grounded and nuanced account of how Adivasis engage with areas, forest departments have been more hostile towards the law and to historicise their relationship with the forest. granting community rights than individual rights (Agarwal 2018; This allows me to contribute to the ongoing debate on the FRA CFR–LA 2016; Kumar et al 2017). According to the report, one in India by highlighting the variability in Adivasis’ views on it reason for this is that forest departments believe that recogni- and the divergence in their own perceptions and responses. tion of community rights will weaken their control over the forests (Agarwal 2018; Agrawal 2014; Kumar et al 2017; Sahu et al The Forest Rights Act: Genesis and Implementation 2017; Springate-Baginski et al 2012). Thus, the forest depart- The FRA, enacted in 2006, is a historic legislation that aims to ments have adopted various strategies to retain their control redress the historical injustices infl icted on forest-dwelling over forests, entangling and derailing the issue in several places Scheduled Tribes (STs) and other traditional forest dwellers2 in the process (CFR–LA 2016). Another concern raised by schol- by recognising their rights over forestlands. This injustice ars about the sustenance of community resources is that the stems from exclusionary forest protection policies and laws current generation of Adivasis is more interested in generating that have held sway since the colonial period. an income from the forest than protecting it. Hence, they often The FRA recognises two types of rights to land: individual indulge in illegal extraction of forest resources, threatening and community. According to the act, the occupation of land the long-term survival of community forests—an argument of up to four acres for the purpose of habitation or cultivation put forward by forest department in Uttar Pradesh against the prior to 13 December 2005 can be recognised as the individual recognition of community rights (Agarwal 2018). rights of a family; meanwhile, the community rights provision Field-level studies on the implementation of the FRA offer recognises collective ownership and the collection, use, and important insights into the successes and failures of the act in disposal of minor forest produce3 traditionally collected. different regions and point to possible reasons for these varying Another important provision, Section 3(2) of the FRA allows outcomes. However, most studies do not provide an in-depth certain facilities, which are prohibited under forest and wild- understanding of how local Adivasis, who are the subjects of the life protection laws, to be established inside the forest for the FRA, have responded to or engaged with the act. One exception welfare and development of the inhabitants. These include is Ramanujam’s (2017) study of the Baiga Chak region of MP, schools, dispensaries, shops, roads, electric lines, and drink- which shows that despite the impressive implementation of the ing water. However, such facilities are provided based on the FRA on paper, fractures have emerged on the ground. Here, collective recommendations of the gram sabha,4 and not the many people are not interested in claiming community rights requests of individual families. despite having received titles. He notes the various local condi- As is well known, forest policies adopted by the colonial and tions contributing to this response, such as degrading forest postcolonial administrations in India dispossessed many quality, which made people sceptical about their future inside Adivasi communities of their lands (Asher and Agarwal 2007). the forest, and the gradual withdrawal of NGOs, which com- In many cases, Adivasis resisted such exclusion, leading to the promised their readiness for collective action. A dditionally, formulation of region-specifi c policies, especially in areas with some people depend on the timber-felling operations of the forest large Adivasi populations, to protect their land and provide them department of MP for their livelihoods, while others resent it a certain level of authority and autonomy over their resources. since it destroys the place of their gods and ancestors’ spirits Examples of such laws include the Chotanagpur Tenancy Act, and affects their sources of medicines, food, and fodder. More- ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY 1908, the Santhal Parganas Tenancy Act, 1949, the Assam Land over, the younger generation aspires for an urban lifestyle and Revenue Regulation (Amendment) Act, 1964, and the rather than a life in the forest (Ramanujam 2017). Provisions of the Panchayats (Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act, The range of local responses to the FRA provides insight into 1996 (Bijoy 2008; Upadhya 2005). However, while national- the gaps between policy formulation and implementation, level forest protection policies have existed since the colonial suggesting that centralised policies and laws formulated at period, a centralised, pan-Indian legislation to protect the the national level may be incapable of accommodating local rights of Adivasis was absent till the FRA was enacted in 2006. conditions and aspirations. In the next section, I discuss such The implementation of the FRA in different parts of India specifi cities for the NTR. highlights its variable impact. In Chhattisgarh and Gujarat, for example, although not all rights were granted, Bandi (2015) Nagarahole Tiger Reserve: A History of Evictions argues that the FRA gave a “psychological boost” to the Adivasis by NTR (Figure 1, p 41) is spread across two districts of Karnataka— assuring them that their land would not be taken away. According Kodagu and Mysore—but this paper is based on fi eldwork car- to the Community Forest Rights–Learning and Advocacy (CFR–LA) ried out primarily in Kodagu. The Kutta–Hunsur road, which
40 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly SPECIAL ARTICLE
Figure 1: Key Locations in and Around Nagarahole Tiger Reserve Prior to the 1970s, NTR forests were mainly used for extract- ing timber and raising plantations, and most Adivasis living Hunsur inside them were employed by the Karnataka Forest Depart- ment as labourers. Although they often moved from one place RCs (Phase 3) to another inside the forest as plantation and timber extrac- Hunsur to Virajpety tion sites shifted, some places—such as Halehalli and Ajjapu- RCs (Phase 1) ra—became steady habitation sites. In 1975, as the govern- ment expressed its intention to declare the area a national To Ponnampet From Hunsur Mysore park, forest department offi cials used coercive means to evict RC (Phase 2) families from NTR, on both the Kodagu and Mysore sides. To HD Kote Kodagu Siddappa, a Jenu Kuruba and retired forest watcher, witnessed HD Kote these evictions in many places inside NTR:
To Kutta Yeravas and Kurubas were doing agriculture in Ajjapura and Hale- halli. They were mostly growing rice, ragi and vegetables. [...] Once, when [the] crops were almost ready for harvest, Subbaiah [a forest offi cer] got elephants and left them to eat all the crops. They [the peo- Kutta ple who lived in Ajjapura and Halehalli] are staying in Kanakapura, on revenue land [outside NTR] now. They do not have land, but [have] Wayanad constructed small houses and are living there now.
Direct boundary Motorable roads This coercive action of the forest department offi cials created Towns To Wayanad NTR Adivasi settlements a sense of fear among the Adivasis of , and over the next Evicted settlements three decades, many families were gradually forced to leave This map was prepared using the data procured by the author during fieldwork. their homes and agricultural lands. Prior to the 1970s, most runs south-west to north-east through NTR, traverses several Adivasis used to cultivate paddy or practice kumri7 cultivation different kinds of landscapes: teak plantations established inside the forests. Many elders recollect this period as one of before the 1970s; older forests; swampy grasslands, known freedom and peace—during which they faced fewer restric- locally as hadlu; settlements of Jenu Kurubas, Betta Kurubas tions on cultivation, forest produce collection, and mobility and Yeravas, the three main Adivasi communities of NTR, all within forests—as opposed to the period after the 1970s, listed as STs in Karnataka; religious structures; and Karnataka which brought severe restrictions and even evictions from Forest Department establishments. their homes and lands. Also, due to the availability of labour Several Adivasi settlements continue to be situated inside work inside the forests, they were not pushed to seek work out- NTR, although their presence has reduced drastically since the side. After the evictions, many families became virtually land- 1970s, when these forests came under a stricter wildlife con- less as they came to occupy only small pieces of homestead servation regime following the enactment of the Indian Wildlife lands. The memory of eviction highlights the kind of injustice Protection Act, 1972. Many Adivasis spoke about evictions that that the Adivasis of NTR continue to face even today. continued for more than a decade after 1972, resulting in the After the 1970s, the demand for labour inside NTR reduced complete abandonment of some of their older settlements, severely due to the complete ban on all human activities in the such as Halehalli5 and Ajjapura, which were situated deep in- forest. Consequently, Adivasis eventually became heavily side the forest and away from the main roads. These displaced dependent on coffee plantations and agricultural labour communities were forced to shift, either to other settlements outside the forest, which signifi cantly modifi ed their earlier, within the reserve and closer to the main roads, or to locales in everyday associations with the forest. the forest periphery (such as Hosahalli and Maradahalli). Some Adivasis moved to settlements that were entirely outside NGO Interventions in Nagarahole ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY the forest, such as Kanakapura, or to the line houses main- Du ring the 1980s, the evictions led to the establishment of tained inside the coffee plantations for its workers.6 several Adivasi rights NGOs in the region. Over the past three Mo st current settlements that still exist inside the forest are decades, these groups have engaged with Adivasis to promote similar in appearance, with kutcha (thatched roof) houses; dirt their welfare and rights by negotiating with government roads; open wells, ponds, or streams as water sources; and solar agencies to secure agricultural land for some evicted families lighting (mostly in poor condition). Social welfare facilities in- living outside the forest; providing educational and nutritional clude Anganwadis (childcare centres), primary schools, and sub- support to Adivasi children; facilitating the establishment of sidised rations, supplied once a month. The northern part of the Adivasi-led organisations and collaborating with these organi- reserve is interspersed with fi elds and fallow lands, which mainly sations in fi ling court cases against the forest department; belong to Yerava families who continued to cultivate them despite organising protests to demand rights and welfare for Adivasis; the restrictions imposed in the 1970s. The fallow lands were earlier and conducting awareness programmes on women empower- used for cultivation by the Adivasis, but due to increased crop ment, indigenous knowledge, and traditional Adivasi practices. damage by elephants over the past decade, many families stopped. Many Adivasis are also employed by these NGOs.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 41 SPECIAL ARTICLE
The NGOs organise events that celebrate the traditional At the time of my fi eldwork in 2014–15, most Adivasi fami- practices and lives of the Adivasis, as I witnessed in an event lies of NTR were granted individual rights, but community for displaying the Adivasis’ forest produce, crops, and handi- rights had not yet been granted in the Kodagu part of the craft items; they also worshipped their deities in a small cere- reserve. Although I discuss responses to the FRA through the mony. Several Adivasis attended the event, as did local politi- voices of only a few interlocutors, their narratives represent a cal leaders, retired forest offi cers, mediapersons, and mem- broader pattern. However, individual responses also vary bers of other Adivasi rights NGOs who shared a mutually coop- among and within different families. erative relationship. In addition, some of these NGOs have aligned themselves Case 1: Disenchantment with Life in the Forests with national and global indigenous rights movements, and We got [individual] rights [...] But the problem here is that we can- their members often participate in events organised by these not build houses without a road. ITDP [Integrated Tribal Development larger rights networks within and outside India. Local Adivasi Programme9] sanctioned fi ve lakhs for the road. But it was taken back organisations created by these NGOs are also entrenched in because this is a national park and roads cannot be built here. — Madesha these networks. A leader of one such organisation showed me his passport with visa stamps from various European coun- Madesha, a Jenu Kuruba Adivasi leader from Lingapura, had tries as well as the United States. He mentioned that he had previously been very active in the fi ght for Adivasi rights in NTR, attended several indigenous rights conferences held outside but he later disengaged from the struggle for Adivasi existence India, where he had also received, on occasion, the opportunity inside the forest. The trajectory of his changing stance illus- to speak. Thus, these NGOs not only use the Adivasis’ experience trates the dilemmas faced by the Adivasis amidst the various of evictions and their hardships and traditional knowledge to forces attempting to reshape their lives. During my fi eldwork, create a discourse around Adivasi rights, self-rule, and autonomy, many people suggested that I speak to Madesha as he was they also connect it to discourses circulating within national considered a leader. I fi rst met him during a meeting organised and global indigenous rights movements. Since the enactment inside NTR with panchayat members and forest offi cials to of the FRA, their advocacy for claims to ancestral lands under address the poor implementation of the FRA. At this meeting, the banner of self-rule has received a further impetus. attended by nearly 100 people from different settlements situated Since the 1990s, a few other NGOs that advocate for forests inside and outside NTR, leaders from each settlement spoke and wildlife conservation—besides those working on Adivasi about the issues that they were facing. Madesha, speaking on rights—have emerged. Their agenda of conserving wildlife behalf of his settlement, came across as a fearless leader who and forests by creating inviolate forest areas has led them to did not hesitate to criticise the forest department in the pres- support and actively participate in shifting Adivasis outside ence of forest offi cials. He blamed the latter for hindering the the forest. Hence, Adivasi rights NGOs and conservation NGOs implementation of the FRA. have clashed on many issues. While Adivasi rights NGOs blame When I interviewed him four months later, his stance was conservation NGOs for forcing people out of the forest, conser- very different. During that interval, Madesha had decided to vation NGOs argue that Adivasi rights NGOs encourage activi- move outside the forest, availing the forest department’s reha- ties prohibited in the forest, such as collecting forest produce bilitation programme. His decision came as a surprise to me, and cutting timber, and also inhibit the development of not only because he had been referred to as someone who led Adivasi communities by keeping them inside the forests. In the fi ght for Adivasi rights, but also because none of the other turn, Adivasi rights NGOs blame conservation NGOs for co-opt- Adivasis of his settlement had mentioned this shift. In fact, it ing a few prominent Adivasi leaders of NTR by offering them turned out that Madesha had not told anyone about his deci- cash incentives and jobs on the condition that they subscribe sion since the region has been fraught with confl icts and hos- to a government-sponsored compensatory relocation scheme.8 tility between those opting for the rehabilitation programme The activities and discourses of these voluntary organi- and those who wanted to stay inside the forest. He also feared sations have shaped the responses of the Adivasis to the FRA in allegations that he had taken a “commission” (bribe) from the ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY different ways. In this context, it is often diffi cult to disen- forest department to persuade other families to move out, so tangle the views and decisions of the people from those of the he decided neither to tell anyone nor to help others move out. NGOs. Other conditions, such as the availability of facilities Madesha’s primary concern in taking this decision was to look outside the forest, also shape their aspirations and generate after the welfare of his family, which included his elderly par- varied responses, which I illustrate in the following section. ents, wife, and two children. Another main concern was the lack of facilities inside the Disengagement versus Assertion of Rights forest, which had not improved despite the (supposed) imple- In my attempt to trace the various ways in which the Adivasi mentation of the FRA. Most Adivasis living inside the forest communities of NTR have engaged with the FRA, I identifi ed complained about the lack of amenities—no access to electricity, two main responses: fi rst, a clear disengagement with the FRA safe drinking water, good housing, road networks, and so on. due to a disenchantment with life inside the forest; second, As Madesha’s narrative—which I have quoted at the beginning laying claim to the ancestral lands inside NTR through of this paper—indicates, his frustrations with life inside the the FRA. forest arose not only from its lack of facilities, but also from his
42 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly SPECIAL ARTICLE parents’ past struggles for survival under the restricted living Sundar, a Betta Kuruba over 60 years old, lives in Maradahalli conditions inside the forest. He and his parents had lost settlement inside the forest. Along with several other families, patience waiting for a better future inside the forest, given that he moved here from his earlier settlement deeper inside the they had the option to move outside where there are more forest during the evictions around the mid-1970s. He and opportunities for a better and more secure life. Although many others have refused to shift to rehabilitation colonies, Madesha had received individual land rights, he was unable to where they have been offered agricultural land and housing. improve common facilities (roads, water supply, electricity, or Instead, they are claiming their rights to redress the injustices proximity to schools) because infrastructure can only be pro- done to them over the past four decades. vided by the government at the community level on the gram Chandra, a Jenu Kuruba, is an Adivasi leader who lives sabha’s recommendation. Thus, the overall well-being of indi- inside the forest in the Hosahalli settlement. In articulating vidual families is contingent upon community resources and his claim to his ancestral land, he talked not only about infrastructure, which are diffi cult to obtain due to the forest righting previous injustices but also of eliminating any future department’s concerns over providing these facilities inside an possibility of harassment by the forest department—some- “inviolate” tiger reserve. This made Madesha and many others thing he has experienced intimately. Over the past decade, disenchanted with the possibilities offered by the FRA, despite the forest department has fi led several cases against him their initial optimism. over illegal timber cutting and collection of forest produce. Besides the lack of facilities, another reason often cited for The forest department has often fi led forest-offence cases— Adivasis leaving the forest and disengaging with the FRA was especially against Adivasi leaders—as a tactic to coerce confl icts with wildlife. For Adivasis living in the northern part people to leave the forest. On more than one occasion during of NTR, this was a major concern. Lakshmi, a Jenu Kuruba, my fi eldwork, I met Chandra as he was going to a court lives in the northern part of NTR. Hers was one of the fi elds hearing in a nearby town. These ongoing cases, however, damaged by elephants a few years back, leading her to stop have not dissuaded him from presenting himself as an Adiva- cultivation. She mentioned that crop and property damage si leader claiming rights, nor has it induced him to shift out- had increased over the years due to strict forest conservation side the forest. On the contrary, he proudly stated that his re- policies, which has led to an increase in the animal population solve has strengthened as the number of cases fi led against inside NTR. Confl icts with elephants were so severe in some him has increased. settlements in other parts of NTR that people slept in tree huts. While Chandra continues to live inside the forest and resist Their houses and temples were severely damaged, and despite the threats of the forest department, Shetty, who lives in receiving individual land titles under the FRA, they were Kanakapura just outside the boundary of NTR, remembers the unwilling to stay inside the forest. The success of strict conser- old days and wishes to relive and revive them through the FRA. vation policies in NTR made the FRA insignifi cant or irrelevant He remarks on their heavy dependence on coffee plantation for these people, and they began seeking better options out- labour since the 1970s: side. Thus, the FRA, which was enacted as a counter to the We need to manage our lives from those earnings [wage labour in cof- dominant state-led conservation model, was now being under- fee plantations]. There [inside forest] we had our own land. We used mined by the consequences of the same model. to grow our own food. We used to grow food organically without using The above case highlights a few conditions that have made any [chemical] fertilisers like we are getting here. some Adivasis disengage with the FRA and seek better lives This shows that his desire to reclaim land inside the forest is outside. Their ideas about life in rehabilitation colonies have not just to assert legal rights or correct historical wrongs, but been confi rmed by relatives and others living there who also to revive an earlier way of life—when their dependence believe that their lives have improved due to access to better on the government or market for food and healthcare was lim- and increased facilities. Moreover, they are happier living ited. They perceive those days to have been more carefree. away from the restrictive forest department regime. They believe that living inside the forest will assure them a In addition to their personal experiences of living inside the relatively self-suffi cient and independent life, which is not pos- ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY forest, the Adivasis’ decision to leave the forest was also infl u- sible outside the forest. This view is based on their past four enced by conservation NGOs, who offered them incentives to decades of post-eviction experiences. As I mentioned above, move out. However, there are others who continue to stay in- such narratives about organic and chemical-free cultivation side the forest, and still others who live outside and have re- appear to stem not only from their memories and experiences cently begun to claim rights over the ancestral lands from but also from the discourses circulated by Adivasi rights which they were evicted. Next, I turn to these cases and dis- groups, who talk about the “natural life” and “environment- cuss the strategies that they have adopted to assert their rights. friendly” practices of the Adivasis. Drawing from international discourses on indigenous communities, these NGOs also claim Case 2: Claiming Ancestral Lands that Adivasis are the rightful and true custodians of nature. In this context, one cannot read the respondents’ narratives in a In the 1970s, everyone had land and paddy fi elds over here. Many peo- ple were shifted out. So we are asking [them] to give land [to] those straightforward way, as they are clearly infl ected by dominant who are staying here. That’s why we are not shifting out. ideas about pristine nature and the superiority of Adivasis’ — Sundar traditional practices. However, this does not make their claims
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 43 SPECIAL ARTICLE less authentic. As other scholars have noted, given the both housing and cultivation rights over their ancestral lands infl uence of indigenous people’s movements around the world, inside the forest. Since individual claims were fi led only for Adivasi claims to the forest are often made most effectively the land that was currently occupied inside the forest, most through the language of indigenous knowledge, “traditional” people received individual rights only over their few cents of environment-friendly practices, and their symbiotic relation- homestead land, which they occupied after getting evicted ship with the forests (Ghosh 2006). from their earlier settlements. However, they were demanding Sundar, Chandra, Shetty, and others, who are claiming rights over ancestral lands within the forest as well. The delay their rights over ancestral lands, share common apprehen- in granting community rights was widely perceived as a denial sions about leaving the forest and living outside: of their rights. In response, several Adivasis refused to accept
We know this land, its trees, its food, its water, and its animals. Our their individual land titles, since they believed that these did ancestors were here, our gods are here. This is the only way of life not represent rights to their ancestral lands. As Prakash, a we know. We can never go hungry in the forest. Many people who Jenu Kuruba, said: shifted to the rehabilitation colonies outside have fallen sick within a They have given [us] rights only for the house. But we are few months of shifting out. asking them for two to three acres of land along with the permis- They associate a sense of uncertainty and unfamiliarity sion to build a house where our parents used to do agriculture before. with the world and life outside the forests and remain scepti- (Prakash) cal about promises of a “better future” made by the forest Thus, the history of evictions from NTR has also shaped department and conservation NGOs to convince them to shift the contemporary demand for land rights. Because of this to the rehabilitation colonies. history of unjust evictions, many families adopted the strategy Furthermore, the experience of being evicted from their an- of refusing to collect individual rights papers for only the cestral lands has produced a sense of betrayal in relation to the homestead land. Thus, we see here that the Adivasis do not forest department. Sundar showed me a teak plantation see individual and community rights as different categories behind his settlement and mentioned that they had planted as defi ned under the FRA. Rather, the separate categories and protected those trees. During the colonial and postcolonial make little sense to Adivasis in the context of their historical periods, the forest department raised teak plantations in NTR dwelling in and use of the forest and the recent history to grow valuable timber for sale. Adivasis were used as labou- of evictions. rers in these plantations and were allowed to practice kumri While a certain lack of clarity and miscommunication cultivation, growing ragi alongside teak. This ensured that the regarding the act existed among the people, those who Adivasis protected not only their crops but also the planta- refused to accept individual rights were not necessarily tions. This practice was followed across NTR, and many Adiva- victims of this incomplete understanding, but were also infl u- sis have used this history to question evictions carried out to enced by their own past experiences and injustices as well as “protect” the forest, given that it was they who historically by Adivasi rights NGOs. Such a sentiment was consistent with protected and raised the forest. For Sundar and others, their the rhetoric of self-rule and autonomy derived from interna- claims to ancestral lands, made through the FRA, are also tional discourses around indigenous communities, a domain directed at reclaiming their position as the rightful custodians familiar to these NGOs. and true owners of the forest. In this context, several Adivasis of settlements inside NTR Conclusions have adopted another strategy to claim their rights—that of One of the primary reasons for these divergent responses was refusing to accept individual titles granted to them till their the strong infl uence of both conservation advocates and Adi- community rights are also recognised. I discuss below how this vasi rights activists, who have shaped Adivasi politics accord- strategy is deeply entangled with claims to ancestral lands. ing to their own agendas. This has divided local Adivasis into two broad camps. The languages of “our land” and “we are its Refusal to Accept Rights Granted protectors” as well as “we want to live like others” were used ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Under the FRA, families living inside the forest can apply for to assert their position either for claiming rights over ancestral individual as well as community rights to the forests that they lands or their desire to move out of the forest. These different have used before 13 December 2005. Accordingly, families liv- responses did not fall into a neat pattern in terms of locality or ing in Maradahalli and Hosahalli applied for both kinds of community. Rather, they varied within particular settlements, rights, community and individual. While the status of their groups, and families. community rights was unclear at the time of my fi eldwork, This paper demonstrates that the capacity of the FRA to most families were granted individual titles. As mentioned meet its objectives depends upon specifi c histories, the socio- above, evicted families had lost their cultivation lands and economic infrastructure, and political discourses in a particu- came to occupy only a few cents10 (ranging from 2 to 70 as per lar location. The cases presented in this paper demonstrate the the records of the tribal welfare department in Kodagu) of different ways in which the Adivasis of NTR engage or disen- homestead land. I found that many families were not aware of gage with the FRA, or, at times, utilise it in ways not envisioned the specifi cities under each category of rights granted under in the policy. By highlighting the plurality of responses to the the FRA. They believed that through the FRA, they could get FRA, I have tried to indicate how different kinds of rights
44 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly SPECIAL ARTICLE claims have emerged in one region—some intended by the the rights neither ensures their well-being nor redresses the policy, others unintended. Local conditions, including the past injustices done to these communities. history of evictions, uneven access to facilities inside and out- Thus, the varying responses of local communities suggest side the forests, the presence of NGOs, and the varying aspira- that the procedures and modalities through which the FRA tions of Adivasis themselves, infl uence how the FRA is received becomes available to people are not adequate to meet the goals or invoked. Also, local perceptions of rights and well-being are of this policy—either in redressing historical wrongs or ensur- drawn not only from personal and community experiences of ing their well-being inside the forests. This conclusion points neglect and eviction, but also from entrenched international to a larger concern, which is that policies that promote decen- discourses around indigenous rights. tralised, participatory, and inclusive governance continue to This paper also demonstrates that the Adivasis do not per- operate within a centralised framework based on presupposi- ceive the various provisions of the FRA—individual rights, tions that are made on behalf of people, and not with or by community rights, and the provisioning of facilities—as dis- them. It also suggests the reproduction of the long-standing tinct options or different kinds of rights. Instead, the choices authoritarian conservation regime. I suggest that the FRA is for their own futures and well-being, available to them within still dawdling, in terms of day-to-day governance and imple- specifi c locales, depend on access to all of these provisions, mentation, on the path to achieving its goal of ensuring which have not been forthcoming. Recognition of only one of participatory and democratic forest governance.
Notes families, the eviction pattern was similar Bandi, M (2015): “Forest Rights Act: Land Distribu- 1 I have used pseudonyms for all persons and across all the settlements mentioned in this tion and Livelihoods of Forest Dependent settlements to protect their identities and paper, that is, these settlements consisted of People,” Economic & Political Weekly, Vol 50, maintain the confi dentiality of my respond- families who had lived there before the evic- No 4, pp 59–66. ents. In accordance with my research ethics tions started as well as families who had got Bijoy, C R (2008): “Forest Rights Struggle: The protocol, I have not provided the exact loca- evicted from different parts of NTR. I discuss Adivasis Now Await a Settlement,” American tions or population sizes of each settlement, some aspects that were specifi c to particular Behavioral Scientist, Vol 51, No 12, pp 1755–73. since they are features that make the settle- settlements, such as elephant problems in the CFR-LA (2016): “Promise and Performance: Ten Years ments easily identifi able. However, I have re- northern part of Nagarahole. of the Forest Rights Act in India,” Citizens’ Report tained actual place names, such as Nagarahole, 6 Many coffee estate owners in Kodagu employ on Promise and Performance of the Scheduled Kodagu, and Mysore, to provide context to the Adivasis as full-time labourers and provide Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers discussion. housing for them within the plantations. Al- (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act, 2006, after 10 Years of its Enactment, December, Produced 2 The FRA is offi cially known as the Scheduled though I was told that many families had shift- as part of Community Forest Rights-Learning Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers ed from the forest to such housing, people did and Advocacy Process (CFRLA), India. (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act, 2006. In not know the exact plantations to which they this paper, I use the term “Adivasi” to refer to had moved; hence, I could not contact any Ghosh, K (2006): “Between Global Flows and Local communities specifi ed as Scheduled Tribes under such evictees. Dams: Indigenousness, Locality, and the Trans- Article 342 of the Constitution. The “other 7 Kumri is a modifi ed form of shifting cultiva- national Sphere in Jharkhand, India,” Cultural Anthropology, Vol 21, No 4, 501–34. traditional forest dwellers” are communities tion that began during the colonial period in other than Scheduled Tribes, who are defi ned the forests of Kodagu. In kumri, teak saplings Kumar, K, N M Singh and Y G Rao (2017): “Promise in the FRA as those who have primarily resided were grown in the gaps between ragi crops and Performance of the Forest Rights Act: A in forests for at least three generations prior to cultivated by the Adivasis inside the forests. Ten-Year Review,” Economic & Political Weekly, 13 December 2005, and who depend on forests 8 The Karnataka Forest Department started Vol LII, Nos 25 and 26, pp 40–43. for their bona fi de livelihood needs. the government-sponsored compensatory re- Ministry of Tribal Affairs (2014): “Forest Rights Act, 2006: Acts, Rules and Guidelines,” Govern- 3 The FRA defi nes minor forest produce as “all location scheme in 1998–99. A total of 616 ment of India and United Nations Development non-timber forest produce of plant origin Adivasi families from NTR were shifted to Programme, https://tribal.nic.in/FRA/data/ including bamboo, brush wood, stumps, cane, nine rehabilitation colonies built in Mysore FRARulesBook.pdf. tussar, cocoons, honey, wax, lac, tendu or district close to the boundary of NTR. These kendu leaves, medicinal plants and herbs, roots, families were given cement houses, agricul- Ramanujam, R V (2017): “Forest Rights in Baiga tubers and the like” (Section 2[i]). tural land, cash, and other facilities, such as Chak, Madhya Pradesh,” Economic & Political Weekly, Vol LII, Nos 25 and 26, pp 47–50. 4 As per the Section 2(g) of the FRA, a “gram piped water supply, community centres, and Sahu, G, T Dash and S Dubey (2017): “Political sabha” is a village assembly that consists of all proximity to healthcare centres, schools, Economy of Community Forest Rights,” Eco- adult members of a village. Gram panchayats and markets. nomic & Political Weekly, Vol LII, Nos 25 and 26, have to convene these gram sabhas at the 9 The Integrated Tribal Development Programme pp 44–47. level of a hamlet or group of hamlets or habita- is run by the Ministry of Tribal Affairs; it pro- Springate-Baginski, O, M Sarin and M Reddy ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY tions as per Rules 2A and 3 of the Scheduled vides each state funds for implementing Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers schemes and programmes for the welfare of (2012): “Resisting Rights: Forest Bureaucracy (Recognition of Forest Rights) Amendment Scheduled Tribes. and the Tenure Transition in India,” Small Scale Forestry, Vol 12, No 1, pp 107–124. Rules, 2012. 10 1 cent = 0.01 acre = approximately 435.60 square Upadhya, C (2005): “Community Rights in Land 5 Halehalli and Ajjapura were old settlements feet. in Jharkhand,” Economic & Political Weekly, situated in the western part of the reserve, Vol 40, No 41, pp 4435–38. which were completely evicted. Hosahalli and References Maradahalli were situated inside the forest, near the main road, while Lingapura and Agarwal, N (2018): “Forest Rights Act, 2006: Kanakapura were situated on the periphery of The Case of Tharu Adivasis of Uttar Pradesh,” the reserve, with the latter being situated out- Economic & Political Weekly, Vol 53, No 15, side the forest. The settlements situated in the pp 73–77. available at northern part of the reserve consisted of both Agrawal, R (2014): “No Rights to Live in the Forest: Yerava and Jenu Kuruba families. Hosahalli, Van Gujjars in Rajaji National Park,” Economic People’s Book House Maradahalli, and Lingapura consisted of both & Political Weekly, Vol 49, No 1. Mehar House, 15 Cawasji Patel Road Jenu and Betta Kuruba families, while Kanaka- Asher, M and N Agarwal (2007): Recognising the pura consisted of Yerava, Jenu Kuruba, and Historic Injustice, Campaign for the Forest Fort, Mumbai 400 001 non-Adivasi families. Apart from Kanakapura, Rights Act, Pune: National Centre for Advocacy Ph: 022-22873768 which was established mainly by the evicted Studies.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 45 SPECIAL ARTICLE
Impact of the Negative Interest Rate Policy on Emerging Asian Markets An Empirical Investigation
Abhishek Anand, Lekha Chakraborty
In the last few years, several central banks have ost the global fi nancial crisis of 2008, the way the mon- implemented negative interest rate policies to boost the etary policies were conducted in the advanced economies changed dramatically. These policies have generally been domestic economy. However, such policies may have P termed as “unconventional” monetary policy (UMP) as opposed some unintended consequences for the emerging Asian to “conventional” monetary policies where the central banks markets. The analysis provides an assessment of the either cut or raise policy rates to infl uence short-term interest domestic and global implications of negative interest rates. However, the central banks of many of the advanced economies had to look beyond conventional monetary policies rate policy and how it differs from that of quantitative after it reached the zero lower bound (ZLB) in order to help easing. It shows that the impact of NIRP is heterogeneous, their economies come out of defl ationary pressures. with differential impacts for big Asian economies (India The experience so far suggests that the central banks have and Indonesia) and small trade-dependent economies resorted to two different ways of conducting UMP—quantitative easing (QE) and negative interest rate policy (NIRP). The QE was (Hong Kong, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore and aimed at suppressing the long-term interest rates by the large- Thailand). Quantitative easing, on the other hand, has no scale purchases of long-term government bonds and mortgage significant impact on inflation but nominal GDP growth backed securities by central banks. The Federal Reserve (Fed), the BOE ECB declines in EAMs. The currency appreciates and exports Bank of England ( ), the European Central Bank ( ) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) actively engaged in QE in various phases. decline. The impact is much more severe in big Since mid-2014, an increasing number of central banks have emerging economies. implemented UMP by resorting to NIRP. Six central banks— Danmarks Nationalbank (DN), ECB, Sveriges Riksbank (SR), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), BOJ and, most recently, the Hungarian National Bank (MNB)—decided to move their policy rates below zero, traditionally seen as the lower bound for nominal interest rates. Even the Fed had indicated that NIRP remains a possible tool at its disposal if required (Smialek 2016). The UMP may have certain unintended consequences for emerging Asian markets (EAMs), given that the global linkage of EAMs with rest of the world has increased in the last decade. Specifi cally, the EAMs worry that ultra-easy monetary policy in ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY advanced economies has led to huge capital infl ows and currency appreciation, making them less competitive in the trade market. There exists an abundance of literature analysing the spillover impact of QE on emerging markets (EMs). Unfortunately, the same is not true for NIRP, and the literature availability is scant. Central banks of many EMs have raised concerns over The authors are very grateful to the anonymous referee for the adverse spillover effects of NIRP. Also, the way spillover effects evaluation of the paper and for the constructive criticism. of NIRP are transmitted to EAMs may be different from QE. Abhishek Anand ([email protected]) belongs to the Indian The aim of this paper is to fi ll this gap by attempting to Economic Service, and is currently on study leave at Harvard Kennedy quantify the possible spillover impact of NIRP on EAMs. Although School, Cambridge, US. Lekha Chakraborty (lekha.chakraborty@nipfp. six central banks have adopted NIRP so far, except for Japan org.in) is with the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, and eurozone, no other country is systematically important for New Delhi. emerging Asia. As far as Japan and eurozone are concerned,
46 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly SPECIAL ARTICLE there are two limitations—fi rst, the available data set is not has not received much attention in the empirical literature. suffi cient to arrive at any conclusion, and second, the BOJ and The reason for the paucity literature is understandable given ECB actively pursued together QE as well as NIRP, making it the rather limited experience central banks have with NIRP. diffi cult to disentangle the impact of NIRP. Much of the work to study the domestic and international To get rid of the data problem, we try to answer the following: spillover impact of QE has resorted to event studies analysing What if the United States (US), globally the most important coun- the announcement or surprise effects of QE. Lately, many try for emerging Asia, adopted NIRP after reaching the ZLB in studies have also employed a regression analysis. Relying on 2008 instead of QE? We analyse the possible spillover impact event studies of US asset purchases on domestic and interna- on EMs, had the Fed cut the fund rate to negative territory after tional fi nancial markets, Neely (2010) employed the event hitting the ZLB. We compare the possible domestic impact of studies method and found that the US QE reduced treasury NIRP and QE on the US economy. We also study and compare the bond yields by 100 basis points (bps) and corporate bond yields spillover impact of both the policies on EAMs. by 80 bps. He also found that the US QE led to lowering of bond For our study, we use macroeconomic data of the US and EAMs rates in the other advanced economies by 20–80 bps and the from 1997 onwards and divide it into two sub-periods—pre-crisis dollar depreciated by 4–11 percentage points. Glick and Leduc (up to December 2008) and post-crisis (January 2009 onwards). (2011) showed that, despite the fall in long-term interest rates Since the Fed exclusively used the federal fund rate to support and the depreciation of the dollar, commodity prices fell on growth and control infl ation in the pre-crisis period, this sample is average on days of QE announcements, and the effects were used to study and quantify the domestic and spillover impact of more pronounced during the fi rst round of QE. NIRP. The post-crisis period sample is used to study the impact Chen et al (2011) employed the global VECM technique in of QE. The federal fund target rate remained constant after their study and found that, compared to its domestic impact, reaching the ZLB and it was raised as late as in December 2015. the US QE turned out to have a far greater impact on most Thus, separately studying the pre-crisis and post-crisis samples emerging economies. In emerging Asia, the infl ation increase makes it easier to disentangle the impact of NIRP from QE. We ranges from 0.5 in Singapore to almost 4 percentage points in use the 10-year US government bond yield (G-Sec) as a proxy Indonesia, while the US infl ation rises at most by 0.6 percent- for QE. Changes in the US 10-year sovereign bond yield is said age points. Bhattarai et al (2015), using the Bayesian vector be a good indicator of QE, when the ZLB on nominal interest autoregression technique, found that an expansionary US QE rates becomes binding, and when the major objective of Fed shock leads to an exchange rate appreciation, a reduction in long- asset purchase programmes has been to reduce long-term bond term bond yields, and a stock market boom for emerging market yields (Chen et al 2011). Similarly, we use the US three-month countries. Fratzscher et al (2013) study the global spillovers of treasury bill (T-bill) as an indicator for NIRP. The inspiration the Fed’s UMP measures and fi nd that it affected capital fl ows for using T-bill for our analysis comes from the experience so to emerging market economies in a procyclical manner, far suggesting that modest negative policy rates are transmit- raised asset prices globally and weakened the dollar. Lim et al ted to money market rates and short-term maturity govern- (2014) study the effects of the US QE on gross fi nancial infl ows ment bonds in very much the same way as positive rates are to developing countries and conclude that QE have been trans- (Bech et al 2016). Hence, an impulse response function for a mitted internationally through liquidity, portfolio rebalanc- negative shock in T-bill helps us identify the possible impact of ing, and confi dence channels. negative rates on the economies of the US as well the EAMs. As NIRP is considered, the most recent work has focused on We use data for Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Philippines, its domestic effects, analysing several channels of domestic South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand to study the spillover transmission. There is very little research on the international impact of NIRP on EAMs. However, we understand that the impact spillovers of central bank balance sheet policies, especially the of NIRP on different EAMs may be heterogeneous. To check if differ- impact on emerging Asia. Data availability is the main obstacle as ent set of countries are affected differently, we study the spillover the period following the implementation of NIRP remains very impact of NIRP and QE on big Asian economies (India and short and the effects are yet to be fully transmitted to other ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Indonesia) and small trade-dependent economies (STDE), that countries. The Financial Stability Report published by the is, separately Hong Kong, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore Reserve Bank of India (RBI 2016) concludes that the impact of and Thailand. We present impulse response functions (IRF) of the NIRP on rising infl ation/infl ation expectations are more benign US macroeconomic variables when a negative shock is given to compared to asset price infl ation and wealth effects. Roach G-Sec and T-bill. Next, we use panel IRF to study the spillover im- (2016) contends that NIRP transmission through wealth effects pact of QE and NIRP on EAMs, big Asian economies and STDE. We from asset markets rather than through the borrowing costs present IRF of key macroeconomic variables for the given set of has an impact on the cost of credit. Arteta et al (2016) argue countries when a negative shock is given to G-Sec and T-bill. that since the introduction of NIRP, both infl ation projections and expectations have continued to decline. The downgrades Literature Review in infl ation projections refl ected to a large extent the impact of While the domestic and spillover impact of QE has been studied sharply declining oil and other commodity prices since mid- extensively, the analysis of the domestic as well as spillover 2014. However, long-term infl ation expectations have also effects of NIRP from advanced economies to emerging markets showed signs of a downward drift. They also use the event
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 47 SPECIAL ARTICLE
Figure 1: M1 Money Multiplier—US Figure 2: Interest Rate (%) on Reserves with the Central Bank 1.8 1.0
1.6 0.5
1.4 0.0
1.2 -0.5
1.0 -1.0
0.8 -1.5
0.6 May 2017 May May 2012 May May 2013 May May 2015 May May 2014 May May 2018 May May 2016 May January 2017 January 2012 January 2013 January 2015 January 2014 January 2018 January 2016 September 2017 September September 2012 September September 2013 September September 2015 September September 2014 September September 2016 September July 2011 July July 2017 July July 2012 July July 2013 July July 2015 July July 2014 July July 2018 July July 2016 July July 2010 July July 2008 July July 2009 July January 2011 January 2017 January 2012 January 2013 January 2015 January 2014 January 2018 January 2016 January 2010 January 2008 January 2009 Sweden Switzerland Denmark ECB Japan Source: Federal Reserve. Source: Central Banks of respective countries. Figure 3: Transmission of NIRP to Money Market Overnight Call Money Rate (%) Denmark Switzerland Japan 0.4 1 0.10
0.2 0 0.05 0.0 -1 0.00 -0.2 -2 -0.05 -0.4 -3 -0.6 -4 -0.10 July 2015 July May 2014 May July 2015 July July 2015 July May 2014 May May 2014 May June 2018 June April 2017 April June 2018 June April 2017 April June 2018 June April 2017 April March 2013 March 2013 March 2013 August 2012 August 2012 August 2012 January 2012 October 2013 October January 2012 January 2012 October 2013 October October 2013 October February 2016 February 2016 February 2016 December 2014 December November 2017 November December 2014 December December 2014 December November 2017 November November 2017 November September 2016 September September 2016 September September 2016 September Sweden Euro Area interest rates lower the debt service ratio, 0.6 2.0 0.4 which would give a misleading picture of 1.5 0.2 debt sustainability and hence could re- 1.0 0.0 duce the incentive for fi scal discipline. 0.5 -0.2 This paper contributes to the existing 0.0 -0.4 NIRP literature by employing the IRF -0.5 -0.6 technique, enabling us to extend the insights from the announcement effects July 2015 July July 2015 July May 2014 May May 2014 May June 2018 June April 2017 April June 2018 June April 2017 April March 2013
March 2013 literature. We also assess the cross-border August 2012 August 2012 January 2012 January 2012 October 2013 October October 2013 October February 2016 February 2016 December 2014 December November 2017 November December 2014 December November 2017 November
September 2016 September NIRP September 2016 September impact of on broader macroeco- The vertical line depicts the time of adoption of NIRP. nomic and fi nancial variables that policy, Sources: ECB, SR, DN, SNB, BoJ. such as output and exchange rate, on study technique and conclude that currencies appreciated, bond emerging Asia. Finally, we do a comparative analysis of QE and spreads declined, and equity prices increased for EMs on the NIRP with respect to their domestic as well as spillover impacts day of the announcement of NIRP. Genay and Podjasek (2014) on macroeconomic and fi nancial variables. fi nd that a low interest rate environment is associated with decreased profi tability for banks, but they estimate the effect Implementation of NIRP ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY to be economically small and outweighed by other macroeco- The experience of NIRP so far, since its implementation by fi ve nomic factors. Lipton (2016) argues that NIRP is also likely to central banks, is elucidated here. We are excluding the Hungary push capital either out of the economy, leading to currency National Bank from our analysis as its decision to implement depreciation pushing exports and reducing imports, akin to NIRP is very recent, and not enough data points are available to competitive devaluations, or it could infl ate certain asset prices arrive at a meaningful conclusion. like housing, necessitating the use of macro-prudential measures. Coeuré (2014) raises concerns that banks may choose to borrow An assessment of NIRP and its transmission: Many of the less from the central bank in order to lower excess reserves and central banks in the advanced economies cut their policy rates avoid the negative deposit rate. This would put an upward close to zero in the aftermath of the fi nancial crisis of 2008 to pressure on rates in the interbank and bond market, offsetting help reinvigorate the fl agging economy. Once the policy rates the stimulative impact of the NIRP. Hannoun (2015) is of the view hit the ZLB, further monetary easing was achieved through that NIRP would reduce the incentive for fi scal consolidation unconventional measures, such as forward guidance and QE. and structural reform in cases where it is needed. Negative Despite all these efforts, the economic recovery in advanced
48 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly SPECIAL ARTICLE
Figure 4: Transmission of NIRP to Short-term Maturities Bond Market Sweden Euro Area Sweden 2.0 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 -05
-1.0 -1.0 -0.5 July 2015 July July 2015 July May 2014 May May 2014 May July 2015 July June 2018 June April 2017 April May 2014 May June 2018 June April 2017 April June 2018 June April 2017 April March 2013 March 2013 March 2013 August 2012 August 2012 January 2012 August 2012 January 2012 October 2013 October October 2013 October January 2012 October 2013 October February 2016 February 2016 February 2016 December 2014 December November 2017 November December 2014 December November 2017 November December 2014 December September 2016 September November 2017 November September 2016 September Switzerland 2016 September Switzerland Denmark the US, for example, M1 money multi- 0.4 1.2 plier plummeted post-September 2008 0.0 0.8 (Figure 1, p 48). In fact, it fell below one,
-0.4 -0.4 implying that every dollar created by the Fed results in less than a dollar increase -0.0 -0.8 of the money supply (M1). -1.2 -0.4 Against this background, it was con- sidered necessary by some central banks July 2015 July May 2014 May July 2015 July May 2014 May June 2018 June April 2017 April June 2018 June April 2017 April March 2013
March 2013 to experiment with unchartered waters August 2012 August 2012 January 2012 October 2013 October January 2012 October 2013 October February 2016 February 2016 December 2014 December November 2017 November December 2014 December November 2017 November September 2016 September September 2016 September of NIRP. Six central banks—the ECB, SNB, Three months t-bill yield for Japan, Denmark and Sweden; one-year security yield for euro area and Switzerland. DN SR BOJ HNB Sources: ECB, SR, SNB, DN, BoJ. , , and —have pushed their Figure 5: Transmission of NIRP to Long-term Maturities Bond Market key policy rates (mainly the deposit rates Sweden Denmark on excess reserves) in negative territory 3.0 2.5 since mid-2014 (Figure 2, p 48). 2.5 2.0 The main motivations for these central 2.0 1.5 banks for the adoption of NIRP vary. For the 1.5 1.0 ECB BOJ SR MNB 1.0 , , and , the main motivat- 0.5 0.5 ing factor was to counter sluggish growth 0 0.0 and defl ation. The ECB introduced a nega- tive interest rate of 10 bps on its deposit July 2015 July July 2015 July May 2014 May May 2014 May June 2018 June April 2017 April June 2018 June April 2017 April March 2013 March 2013 facility in June 2014 to “underpin the fi rm August 2012 August 2012 January 2012 January 2012 October 2013 October October 2013 October February 2016 February 2016 December 2014 December November 2017 November December 2014 December November 2017 November September 2016 September September 2016 September anchoring of medium to long-term infl a- Japan Switzerland tion expectation” (Draghi 2014). The SR in- 1.2 1.6 1.2 troduced a negative one-week repo rate of 0.8 0.8 10 bps in February 2015 to “provide support 0.4 0.4 for infl ation so that it rises and stabilises 0.0 around 2% in 2017” (Riksbank 2016). The 0.0 -0.4 BOJ imposed a negative interest rate of 10
-0.4 -0.8 bps in January 2016 “in order to achieve the price stability target of 2% at the earliest July 2015 July July 2015 July May 2014 May May 2014 May June 2018 June April 2017 April June 2018 June April 2017 April BoJ MNB March 2013 March 2013 possible time” ( 2016). The , the August 2012 August 2012 January 2012 January 2012 October 2013 October October 2013 October February 2016 February 2016 December 2014 December December 2014 December November 2017 November November 2017 November September 2016 September September 2016 September latest entrant to the NIRP club, cut its ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Euro Area 5 economies remained slow overnight deposit rate to -0.05% in March 2016, keeping in view 4 and uneven. The ultra the “persistently low cost-side infl ationary pressure, the slow- 3 easy credit policy failed down in global growth and the historically low level of infl a- MNB 2 to increase bank lending tion expectations” ( 2016). SNB DN 1 to the private sector. In For and , countering currency appreciation due to US NIRP SNB 0 , the banks in response capital infl ows was the key factor to adopt . The to QE chose to keep the announced a negative interest rate on 25 bps on the sight July 2015 May 2014 May April 2017 June 2018 excess reserve money deposits account balance in December 2014 to discourage March 2013 March August 2012 August January 2012 October 2013 February 2016 December 2014 November 2017 November DNB September 2016 September supply either as deposits capital outfl ows and Swiss franc’s appreciation. The fi rst Figures are for 10-year government bonds yield. The vertical line depicts the time of adoption of NIRP. with the Fed or invested set its deposit rate below zero in July 2012, but it returned to Sources: ECB, SR, SNB, BoJ, DN. in government securities. positive territory in April 2014. The rate was cut again to As a result, even in response to a quantum leap in reserve negative territory in September 2014 “in order to stem the money, the money supply never really picked up in the US. In capital infl ow” (Rohde 2015).
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 49 SPECIAL ARTICLE
Figure 6: Deposit and Lending Rates (%) bonds, there was a decline in the yields Average Deposit Rate Average Lending Rate initially after the introduction of NIRP 1.2 3.0 (Figure 5, p 49). However, this decline in Japan NIRP 0.8 Switzerland yields cannot be attributed to solely as 2.0 the central banks simultaneously pursued 0.4 asset purchase programmes. Also, global 1.0 forces, such as declining infl ation and 0.0 Japan growth expectations, low investment and Switzerland -0.4 0.0 excess savings, as well as a diminishing pool of highly rated low-risk fi xed income May 2017 May May 2012 May May 2013 May May 2015 May May 2014 May May 2016 May May 2017 May May 2012 May May 2013 May May 2015 May May 2014 May May 2016 May assets have put a signifi cant downward January 2017 January 2012 January 2013 January 2015 January 2014 January 2016 January 2017 January 2012 January 2013 January 2015 January 2014 January 2016 September 2012 September September 2013 September September 2015 September September 2014 September September 2016 September September 2012 September September 2013 September September 2015 September September 2014 September September 2016 September pressure on long maturity government Sources: International Financial Statistics (IFS). bonds yield (Arteta et al 2016). The trans- Figure 7: Bilateral Exchange Rate mission of NIRP beyond money markets and Euro Area Switzerland short maturity bonds are affected mainly 1.00 1.05 on account of the reluctance of commer- 0.95 1.00 cial banks to pass negative rates through 0.90 to depositors, especially retail depositors 0.85 0.95 (Figure 6). Banks worry that negative re- 0.80 0.90 tail deposit rates may lead to mass deposit 0.75 withdrawals affecting the profi tability of 0.70 0.85 banks. In Sweden and Japan, deposit rates moved to about zero. Time deposits rates July 2017 July May 2016 May July 2017 July July 2015 July July 2018 July July 2014 July July 2016 July April 2017 April April 2015 April April 2018 April April 2014 April April 2016 April
March 2015 have moved in the negative territory in August 2014 January 2014 October 2015 October January 2017 January 2015 January 2018 January 2014 January 2016 October 2017 October October 2015 October October 2014 October October 2016 October February 2018 December 2016 December Switzerland. However, to maintain the net Sweden Denmark interest margin, the banks have raised 7.5 10 the investment and mortgage loan rates. 7.0 NIRP 9 The impact of on exchange rate 6.5 presents a mixed picture (Figure 7). The 8 6.0 euro depriciated against the dollar after NIRP was adopted, but it was short-lived 7 5.5 and the direction has reversed in the recent 6 5.0 past. The Swedish krone has generally shown a depreciating trend against the July 2017 July July 2017 July May 2016 May May 2016 May March 2015 March 2015
August 2014 euro. The Swiss franc appreciated after the August 2014 January 2014 October 2015 October January 2014 October 2015 October February 2018 February 2018 December 2016 December December 2016 December interest rate moved in the negative territory Japan The experience of NIRP in December 2014. This could be attributed to the SNB’s decision to 125 suggests that the nega- abandon its exchange rate ceiling vis-à-vis the euro. The Danish 120 tive policy rates are krone and Japanese yen have remained stable. The exchange 115 transmitted to the money rate is expected to depreciate in response to the negative interest
110 market in the same way rate shock to equalise risk-adjusted real returns on various as positive rates. In debt instruments. However, the NIRP was introduced when the 105 all the jurisdictions, the general global risk environment was undergoing substantial ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY 100 overnight call money swings, leading to the muted impact of NIRP on the exchange rate. rates have followed the However, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc do not confi rm to this July 2017 July May 2016 May
March 2015 NIRP
August 2014 policy rate below zero trend. In Japan, the yen appreciated post- adoption, mostly January 2014 October 2015 October February 2018 December 2016 December (Figure 3, p 48). It ap- driven by capital infl ows due to fl ight-to-safety considerations. Exchange rates normalised to zero beginning January 2014. The vertical line depicts the time of adoption of NIRP. pears that if there is a One of the key reasons for the adoption of NIRP was to Source: IFS. positive spread to en- discourage capital infl ows in these jurisdictions. Except for courage borrowing and lending, the absolute level of interest eurozone, portfolio infl ows have remained subdued in other rates is not particularly important for intermediaries (Jackson regions post-NIRP adoption. Portfolio infl ows in eurozone can be 2015). attri buted to other factors, such as accommodative global The transmission of NIRP beyond money markets presents a liquidity and fl ight-to-safety (Figure 8, p 51). mixed picture. The yield on treasury bills and short maturity In terms of macroeconomic variables, the performance con- government bond yields have turned increasingly negative tinues to remain below par post-NIRP introduction (Figure 9, p 51). (Figure 4, p 49). However, in the case of longer maturity The NIRP countries are still struggling to achieve the desired
50 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly Denmark SPECIAL ARTICLE Figure 8: Portfolio Inflows Euro Area Japan ($ billion) Denmark Euro Area Japan 35 800 400
25 300 600 200 15 400 100 5 0 200 -5 -100
-15 0 -200 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sweden Switzerland Emerging economies and spillover effect 30 45 of NIRP: Many of the central banks in the 35 EAM 20 s have fl agged the concerns regarding 25 adverse effects of NIRP being pursued in 10 advanced economies. Former RBI governor 15 Raghuram Rajan had asked global central 0 5 banks to adopt a system for assessing the 0 -10 -5 adverse impact of NIRP on emerging econ- omies. Bank Negara Malaysia governor -20 -15 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Zeti Akhtar Aziz highlighted the need for Sources: IFS. greater policy coordination among emerg- Figure 9: KeyCPI Macroeconomic base Inflation Variables (%) and NIRP (%) CPI Base Inflation Bank Credit to Private Non-financial Sector ing countries to prevent over-reliance on 3 4 9 monetary policy. The possible channels 7 2 3 through which NIRP may have adverse 5 1 2 impact on emerging economies is dis- 3 0 1 cussed below. 1 -1 0 -1 Portfolio rebalancing channel: NIRP has -2 -1 -3 led to fall in the yields of short-term as well as long-term maturities bonds. In such May 2017 May May 2015 May May 2014 May May 2018 May May 2016 May June 2017 June June 2015 June June 2014 June June 2016 June March 2017 March 2015 March 2014 March 2016 January 2017 January 2015 January 2014 January 2018 January 2016 a scenario, investors may turn to emerg- December 2017 December December 2013 December December 2015 December December 2014 December December 2016 December September 2017 September September 2015 September September 2014 September September 2016 September September 2017 September September 2015 September September 2014 September September 2016 September ing market assets of similar maturities Denmark Sweden Switzerland Denmark Japan Switzerland Japan (RHS) Sweden Euro Area for higher risk-adjusted returns in search Sources: Bank of International Settlements, BOJ, ECB, IFS. of higher yield. Such capital infl ows may infl ation level of 2%. In fact, Switzerland—where the penalty boost asset prices rates in the emerging economies and put imposed on excess reserves is the maximum—witnessed dis- upward pressure on their currencies. Easing of liquidity con- infl ation for more than a year post NIRP. Not only has infl ation ditions may also put infl ationary pressure. failed to reach the desired level in these countries, bank lend- ing has also failed to pick up. In response to the fi nancial Trade route channel: NIRP may lead to the depreciation of meltdown of 2008, the average bank lending growth plum- currencies where it is adopted. If that happens, it may put adverse meted and even remained negative for many quarters in impact on trade balances of emerging economies that export a Denmark and the euro area. Bank credit growth to private major share of their goods and services to these economies. non-fi nancial corporation continues to remain sluggish even ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY after the adoption of NIRP. Banks continue to hold enormous Monetary policy divergence: NIRP has led to the increasing amount of excess reserves with their central banks, even though monetary-policy divergence across major advanced economies, they have to pay penalty for the same. Banks in Japan were which has contributed to the appreciation of the dollar. This pres- holding excess reserves—3,000 times the required reserve—as sure has contributed to a higher cost of debt servicing and rising of June 2015. Banks in the euro area were also holding excess credit risks for emerging economies (Hofmann et al 2016). reserves to the tune of 500 times the required reserve in July 2016. Banks’ unwillingness to lend more is refl ective of the per- Empirical Methodology sistent macroeconomic and fi nancial uncertainty. We proceed in two steps in our empirical study. A vector error However, it will not be fair to dismiss NIRP as they have not led correction model (VECM) for the US economy is estimated to the desired outcome. One of the diffi culties in evaluating UMP fi rst. We run this model for two periods: (i) June 1997 to is that we do not know the counterfactual. In particular, Europe November 2008 (pre-crisis), and (ii) December 2008 to March was hit by the eurozone crisis, and perhaps things would have 2017 (post-crisis). The pre-crisis sample is used to assess the been much worse if the ECB had not adopted the NIRP. impact on domestic US real and fi nancial variables had the
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Figure 10: Impact of Fed Rate Cut on US Economy Response to 1 SD Cholesky Innovations Response of GDP to US T-Bill Response of Exports to US T-Bill Response of CPI to US T-Bill 0.02 0 0 0 -0.1 -0.05 -0.2 -0.02 -0.1 -0.3 -0.04 -0.15 -0.4 -0.06 -0.5 -0.2 -0.08 -0.6 -0.25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Response of NEER to US T-Bill Response of S&P to US T-Bill use G-Sec yield as a proxy for QE. Again, we 0.1 0.8 use impulse response to examine the ef- 0.08 0.6 fects of a negative shock in the G-Sec yield 0.06 on real and fi nancial variables of the US. 0.4 0.04 In the second step, a panel VECM for 0.02 0.2 the EAMs is estimated to assess the inter- T 0 0 national spillover effects of a negative - 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 bill and G-Sec shock. We include India, Indonesia, Hong Kong, South Korea, Figure 11: Impact of QE on US Economy Response to 1 SD Cholesky Innovations Philippines, Singapore and Thailand in Response of CPI to US 10 Year G-Sec Response of Exchange Rate to US 10 Year G-Sec our sample. Again, using pre-crisis and 0.25 0.00 post-crisis samples separately for EM, we IRF 0.20 -0.05 compute to assess their macroeco- nomic variables (refer to the Annexures 0.15 -0.10 [p 56] for more details). 0.10 -0.15 Impulse Response Analysis 0.05 -0.20
0.00 -0.25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Domestic effect of NIRP on the US economy: We present, in Figure 10, the Response of GDP to US 10 Year G-Sec Response of S&P to US 10 Year G-Sec impulse responses of US macroeconomic 0.10 2.00 variables to a negative shock of 20 bps to 0.08 1.50 three months US T-bill (one standard de- 0.06 1.00 viation of the shock) over 36 months 0.04 0.50 based on the pre-crisis sample. 0.02 0.00
0.00 -0.50 Impact on real variables: The impact of
-0.02 -1.00 the negative shock in three months US 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 T-bill rate on real gross domestic product Response of Exports to US 10 Year G-Sec Fed-adopted NIRP after (GDP) is insignifi cant. The shock leads to a decline in infl ation 0.70 hitting ZLB. The reasons rate by more than 10 bps in the fi rst quarter. Peak effect comes 0.60 for using the US data for in the third quarter when the infl ation rate drops by 19 bps. 0.50 analysing the spillover This result is interesting as many countries have cut the rates ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY 0.40 NIRP 0.30 impact of the has in the negative territory to boost infl ation. However, our result 0.20 been explained earlier. shows that the Fed cutting, moving in the negative territory, 0.10 Pre-crisis, the Fed may aggravate the defl ationary pressures. 0.00 exclusively relied on The immediate impact of these on the US gross exports to the 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 federal fund target rates rest of the world, however, is signifi cant. Exports growth contracts as the key monetary policy tool. As discussed earlier, negative by nearly 30 bps in the fi rst quarter. The peak effect comes in the policy rates are transmitted to money market rates and short- third quarter when gross exports growth fall by almost 47 bps. term bond yields in very much the same way as positive rates are. Hence, we use T-bill rates as a proxy for negative interest rates, Impact on fi nancial variables: The magnitude of the impact of and we look at impulse response to examine the effects of a the shock on nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) index is negative shock in T-bill on real and fi nancial variables of the insignifi cant, but the direction of this impact is interesting. US. Similarly, in post-crisis sample, we use the same set of real The NEER index appreciates immediately in response to the shock. and fi nancial variables. However, instead of T-bill rates, we The peak effect comes in the third quarter when the index
52 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly SPECIAL ARTICLE
Figure 12: Impact of US Rate Cut on Emerging Asia effect); and decline in debt service (fi scal Response to 1 SD Cholesky Innovations effect). The liquidity demand effect caus- Response of CPI to US T-Bill Shock Response of Exports to US T-Bill Shock es the currency to depreciate, whereas 0.30 0.00 output and fi scal effects appreciate the cur- 0.25 -0.20 rency. Net effect depends on relative 0.20 strengths of these offsetting forces. It is pos- -0.40 0.15 sible that, in response to Fed cutting the -0.60 policy rate, the fi scal and output effects out- 0.10 weigh the liquidity demand effect leading -0.80 0.05 to currency appreciation. 0.00 -1.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Domestic effect of QE on the US economy: Response of GDP to US T-Bill Shock Response of Exchage Rate to US T-Bill Shock We present, in Figure 11 (p 52), the impulse 0.00 1.00 responses of the US macroeconomic vari- -0.05 0.80 ables to a negative shock of 18 bps in the -0.10 0.60 US 10-year G-Sec yield (one SD of the -0.15 0.40 shock) over 36 months. The estimates are -0.20 based on the post-crisis sample. 0.20 -0.25 -0.30 0.00 Impact on real variables: An 18-bps neg- -0.35 -0.20 ative shock on the US 10-year G-Sec leads 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 to an immediate increase in infl ation by Figure 13: Impact of Fed Rate Cut on Big Emerging Asian Nations 6 bps in the fi rst month. Peak effect is ob- Response to 1 SD Cholesky Innovations Response of CPI to US T-Bill Response of Exports to US T-Bill served in the third quarter when infl ation 0.4 0.2 rate increases by 25 bps. The impact of the
0 shock on real GDP is positive in the fi rst 0.2 quarter and it goes up by 10 bps. Gross ex- -0.2 ports growth too increases by 55 bps in the 0 -0.4 second quarter in response to the shock. -0.6 -0.2 -0.8 Impact on fi nancial variables: The NEER -0.4 -1 index depreciates signifi cantly in 0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30 response to the shock. Peak effect comes Response of GDP to US T-Bill Response of Exchange Rate to US T-Bill in the second quarter when it depreciates 0 1 by 20 bps. The S&P index too falls imme- 0.5 diately by 67 bps in response to the -0.1 shock. However, it starts to increase 0 third month onwards and goes up by 160 -0.2 -0.5 bps in the second quarter. -1 Thus, a negative shock to the US 10- -0.3 year G-Sec yields leads to an increase in -1.5 real GDP growth and infl ation in the short -0.4 -2 run. The S&P index falls immediately, ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY 0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30 perhaps owing to capital outfl ows. The appreciates by 8 bps. The standard and poor (S&P) index also goes dollar depreciates in response giving a boost to exports up immediately in response to the shock. Peak effect comes in growth in the short run. A negative shock in the US three- the fi rst month itself when the S&P index goes up by 62 bps. month T-bill, on the contrary, is not effective in containing This exchange-rate puzzle that we fi nd supports the fi ndings of capital infl ow leading to an increase in S&P index. The dollar Glick and Leduc (2013) who found in their study that the dollar appreciates as well and so does gross exports growth. Impact appreciates on average in response to rate cuts of less than 50 bps. on infl ation is adverse as well. Infl ation rate falls in response Hnatkovska et al (2016) fi nd in their paper that, in response to the shock. Impact on real GDP, though positive, is insignifi - to a monetary tightening, the nominal exchange tends to cant. Based on these results, we may conclude that QE may appreciate in developed countries but depreciate in developing work better relative to NIRP. countries. They show that lower interest rates typically have three effects—lesser demand for domestic currency denominated Spillover effect of NIRP on emerging Asia: Figure 12 presents assets (liquidity demand effect); lower cost of credit (output the IRF of a negative 1 SD shock (around 20 bps) to the US T-bill on
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Figure 14: Impact of Fed Rate Cut on Trade-dependent Emerging Asia Nominal GDP is adversely affected, and Response to 1 SD Cholesky Innovations the growth declines by 25 bps in the fi rst Response of CPI to US T-Bill Response of Exports to US T-Bill year. Peak effect is observed at the end of 0.08 0 the second year when growth rate declines by 31 bps. Bilateral exchange rate vis-à-vis 0.06 -0.2 dollar immediately depreciates by 37 bps in response to the shock. The depreciation 0.04 -0.4 is more than 90 bps in the second quarter. However, the depreciation of the local 0.02 -0.6 currency fails to boost the gross exports to the US, and it declines by 85 bps in the 0 -0.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 second quarter. EM Response of GDP to US T-Bill Response of Exchange Rate to US T-Bill Next, we consider two sub-groups of s VECM 0 0.5 in an extension of our panel analysis: big economies—Indian and Indonesia and -0.1 0.4 STDE: Hong Kong, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand. IRF are presented in -0.2 0.3 Figure 13 (p 53) and Figure 14. The results -0.3 0.2 show that the responses of these two sub- groups in response to the shock are dif- -0.4 0.1 ferent. India and Indonesia witness sig- nifi cant infl ation increase (peak effect of -0.5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 nearly 36 bps in third quarter) compared to the STDE countries (peak effect of 8 bps in Figure 15: Impact of US QE on Emerging Asia Response to 1 SD Cholesky Innovations second quarter) in response to negative Response of CPI to 10 Year US G-Sec Response of Exports to 10 Year US G-Sec shock to the US T-bill rates. The impact on 0.06 0.2 the GDP remains muted in the fi rst year in the case of India and Indonesia. The STDE 0.02 0 countries are adversely affected in the fi rst -0.02 year itself. Growth declines by just 10 bps -0.2 by the end of the fi rst year in BE countries. -0.06 However, second year onwards, the decline -0.4 -0.1 in growth is steeper. Peak effect is observed in the third year when the growth de- -0.14 -0.6 clines by 34 bps. The STDE countries on the 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 other hand witness a decline in growth of Response of GDP to 10 Year US G-Sec Response of Exchange Rate to 10 Year US G-Sec almost 40 bps in the fi rst year itself. 0 0 Bilateral exchanges rate against dollar fi rst depreciate in India and Indonesia but -0.1 -0.1 start to appreciate second year onwards. The immediate response is that of deprecia- -0.2 -0.2 tion by almost 100 bps. The second year onwards, however, the currency starts to ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY -0.3 -0.3 appreciate, and the peak effect is observed towards the end of the second year, with -0.4 -0.4 the currency appreciating by almost 145 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 bps. In STDE countries, on the other hand, macroeconomic variables of emerging Asia based on pre-crisis the currencies depreciate by only 15 bps in immediate re- sample of Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Philippines, sponse. Peak effect is observed in the second quarter when Singapore and Thailand. The impact is signifi cant and appears to the currency depreciates by 40 bps. be widespread. The US T-bill shock affects all variables—nominal The impact on gross exports to the US is more severe for GDP, infl ation, exports, and exchange rate. This indicates sev- STDE countries. In India and Indonesia, exports growth to the eral different transmission channels could have been at play. US decline by almost 95 bps in an immediate response to the A 20-bps negative shock to the US T-bill leads to infl ation, rising shock, but it starts to improve thereafter, and the exports, de- by 10-bps by the end of the fi rst quarter. Peak effect is observed cline is only 5 bps at the end of the second year. For STDE in the fourth quarter when infl ation goes up by almost 30 bps. countries, exports to the US decline by 27 bps in immediate
54 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly SPECIAL ARTICLE Figure 16: Impact of US QE on Big Emerging Asian Economy against the dollar appreciates immedi- Response to 1 SD Cholesky Innovations ately by 18 bps in response to the shock. Response of CPI to 10 Year US G-Sec Response of Exports to 10 Year US G-Sec 0 0.20 Peak effect comes in the second quarter when the currency appreciates by 36 bps. -0.20 Growth in exports to the US also declines -0.05 by 51 bps in the fi rst year. -0.60 Next, we analyse the impact of this -0.1 shock in G-Sec yield for India and Indonesia -1.00 and STDE countries. The IRF are presented in Figures 16 and 17. There is no signifi cant -0.15 -1.40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 impact on infl ation in STDE countries. In Response of GDP to 10 Year US G-Sec Response of Exchange Rate to 10 Year US G-Sec India and Indonesia, the infl ation rate 0.00 0.00 declines by 13 bps in the fi rst year. The nominal GDP growth declines by 40 bps in -0.10 BE countries and by 32 bps in STDE coun- -0.20 -0.20 tries in the fi rst year. Currency appreci- ates in both sets of countries in response -0.30 -0.40 to the shock; however, the appreciation is -0.40 stronger in India and Indonesia. Peak effect is observed in second quarter when -0.50 -0.60 STDE 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 currency appreciates by 53 bps. In countries, currency appreciates by 27 bps Figure 17: Impact of US QE on Trade Dependent Emerging Asian Economy Response to 1 SD Cholesky Innovations in the fi rst year. Exports growth too declines Response of CPI to 10 Year US G-Sec Response of Exports to 10 Year US G-Sec in both sets of countries but the impact is 0.25 0.10 much severe in India and Indonesia. In response to the appreciation, exports 0.20 0.00 growth to the US declines by 110 bps in 0.15 -0.10 the fi rst year in India and Indonesia. In STDE countries also exports growth to the 0.10 -0.20 US declines by 31 bps in the fi rst year.
0.05 -0.30 Conclusions 0.00 -0.40 The econometric results show that infl a- 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 tion in the US declines in response to a Response of GDP to 10 Year US G-Sec Response of Exchange Rate to 10 Year US G-Sec negative shock to T-bill. The impact on real 0.00 0.05 GDP is insignifi cant and exports growth decline. Interestingly, the dollar appreci- -0.10 -0.05 ates and the S&P index go up in response. A negative shock to G-Sec yields leads to -0.20 -0.15 an increase in real GDP growth and infl a- tion in the short run. The S&P index falls -0.30 -0.25 immediately. The dollar depreciates in response giving a boost to exports growth ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY -0.40 -0.35 in the short run. Based on these results, 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 we may conclude that the Fed’s decision response to the shock, and the decline is almost 70 bps in the to use QE instead of NIRP has been successful. The nominal fourth quarter. GDP growth as well as exports growth to the US on an average is adversely affected in EMs in response to a negative T-bill Spillover effect of QE on emerging Asia: Figure 15 (p 54) shock. The STDE countries are more severely affected. represents the impact of a negative 1 SD shock (-18 bps) on the US Infl ation goes signifi cantly but the impact is much more se- 10 year G-Sec yield on macroeconomic variables of EMs. The vere for India and Indonesia. Local currencies also depreciate international transmission of a shock to G-Sec yield is quite dif- in both sets of countries. A negative G-Sec shock on the other ferent from that of shock to T-bill. The impact on infl ation of a hand has no signifi cant impact on infl ation but nominal GDP negative shock to G-Sec yield is insignifi cant. The nominal GDP growth declines in EMs. Currency appreciates and exports to growth, on the other hand, is more severely affected, the US decline but the impact is much more severe in India declining by 34 bps in the fi rst year. Bilateral exchange rate and Indonesia.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 55 SPECIAL ARTICLE
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Annexures: Unit Root Tests Table A1: ADF Unit Root Test for the US Table A2: ADF Unit Root Test for the Table A3: Panel Unit Root Test for the Table A4: Panel Unit Root Test for based on Pre-crisis Sample US based on Post-crisis Sample EAM based on Pre-crisis Sample the EAM based on Post-crisis Sample Variable Level 1st Critical Variable Level 1st Critical Variable Level 1st Variable Level 1st Difference Values Difference Values Difference Difference ADF ADF 1% 5% ADF ADF 1% 5% Breitung p-value Breitung p-value Breitung p-value Breitung p-value Level Level Level Level t-stat t-stat t-stat t-stat Real GDP -0.60 -17.41 -3.48 -2.88 Real GDP -3.03 -9.23 -3.51 -2.89 Nominal Nominal Inflation 2.55 -4.02 -3.48 -2.88 Inflation -0.63 -3.22 -3.51 2.89 GDP 2.39 0.99 -2.37 0.00 GDP -1.57 0.06 -2.78 0.00 Exports -2.5 -5.48 -3.48 -2.88 Exports -1.16 -5.14 -3.52 -2.90 Inflation 0.87 0.19 -3.86 0.00 Inflation 0.27 0.60 -2.13 0.01 S&P index -1.06 -10.35 -3.48 -2.88 S&P index -2.44 -8.31 -3.51 -2.89 Exports -1.39 0.08 -9.91 0.00 Exports -0.45 0.32 -3.77 0.00 NEER index -2.44 -7.85 -3.48 2.88 NEER index -0.73 -3.76 -3.51 2.89 Exchange Exchange T-bill -1.17 -3.09 -3.48 -2.88 T-bill -2.65 -7.05 -3.51 -2.89 rate 2.63 0.99 -4.55 0.00 rate -1.28 0.10 -5.99 0.00 Table A5: Johansen Cointegration Test for US Aariables based on Pre-crisis Data Table A6: Johansen Cointegration test for US Variables based on Post-crisis Data Sample (Adjusted): 1998M08 2008M11 Sample (Adjusted): 2009M02 2017M03 Trend Assumption: Linear Deterministic Trend Series: Exports Inflation Neer Real_GDP S_P_INDEX T_Bill Trend Assumption: Linear Deterministic Trend Series: Exports G_SEC Inflation NEER Real_GDP S_P_Index Lags interval (in First Differences): 1 to 1 Lags Interval (in First Differences): 1 to 1 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace) Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace) Hypothesised No of CE(s) Eigenvalue Trace Statistics 0.05 Critical Value Prob ** Hypothesised No of CE(s) Eigenvalue Trace Statistics 0.05 Critical Value Prob** None * 0.2543 105.2262 95.7537 0.0095 None * 0.5125 138.5088 95.7537 0.0000 At most 1 0.1873 68.8466 69.8189 0.0596 At most 1 0.2659 76.7244 69.8189 0.0127 At most 2 0.1425 43.1341 47.8561 0.1293 At most 2 0.2523 50.1397 47.8561 0.0300 At most 3 0.1235 24.0709 29.7971 0.1975 At most 3 0.1552 25.1391 29.7971 0.1565 At most 4 0.0577 7.7234 15.4947 0.4954 At most 4 0.0931 10.6367 15.4947 0.2348 At most 5 0.0028 0.3488 3.8415 0.5548 At most 5 0.0256 2.2339 3.8415 0.1350
ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level. Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level. * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level. * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level. ** MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values. ** MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values. Table A7: Johansen Fischer Panel Cointegration Test for EMs based on Table A8: Johansen Fischer Panel Cointegration Test for EMs based on Pre-crisis Sample Post-crisis Sample Johansen Fisher Panel Cointegration Johansen Fisher Panel Cointegration Test Series: CPI Exchange_Rate Exports GDP US_T_BILL Test Series: CPI Exchange_Rate Exports GDP US_10YR_G_SEC Sample: 1998 M01 2008M11 Sample: 2008M12 2017M03 Trend Trend Assumption: Linear Deterministic Trend Lags Interval (in First Differences): 1 1 Assumption: Linear Deterministic Trend Lags Interval (in First Differences): 1 1 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace and Maximum Eigenvalue) Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace and Maximum Eigenvalue) Hypothesised No of CE(s) Fisher Stat* Prob Fisher Stat* Prob Hypothesised No of CE(s) Fisher Stat* Prob Fisher Stat* Prob (from Trace Test) (from Max-eigen Test) (from Trace Test) (from Max-eigen Test) None 168.10 0.0000 130.90 0.0000 None 182.70 0.0000 130.6 0.0000 At most 1 65.32 0.0000 41.72 0.0001 At most 1 79.30 0.0000 58.90 0.0000 At most 2 34.24 0.0019 27.34 0.0174 At most 2 33.56 0.0024 21.5 0.0895 At most 3 17.08 0.2522 16.89 0.2618 At most 3 23.51 0.0525 14.34 0.4244 At most 4 14.07 0.4448 14.07 0.4448 At most 4 36.48 0.0009 36.48 0.0009
56 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly DISCUSSION
rainfall—21% excess of the normal rain- Water Conservation and fall in Marathwada (IMD 2016)—Latur was receiving water only once a week in Religious Organisations 2017. The analysis reveals that the pro- ject was conceived and planned with a poor understanding of the river basin, Sachin Tiwale the water needs of Latur city, and the existing water supply infrastru cture. The In response to Srirupa n the article titled “Groundwater, assessment of the project implementa- Bhattacharya’s article Gurus, and Governmentality: Seva in tion discloses the violation of multiple rules of regulations. “Groundwater, Gurus, and Ithe Neo-liberal Development Regime in India” (EPW, 10 August 2019), the author Bhattacharya (2019: 55) observed that Governmentality: Seva in the Srirupa Bhattacharya has illustrated upon the gurus receive “unprecedented stru- Neo-liberal Development Regime the network emerging between the reli- ctural cooperation” and “universal acce- in India” (EPW, 10 August 2019), gious organisations, state actors, interna- ptability” from all, including the state actors. This article argues that the rela- this article raises a few important tional funding orga nisations and multi- national corporations while planning tionship between religious organisation questions on the modalities of and executing water conservation activi- and state goes beyond “acceptability” and, the implementation and, ties in the post- liberalisation era. Citing at some point, the state actors are co-opted consequently, the actual impacts an example of the Art of Living (AOL) by the religious organisation, blurring the boundaries between the religious of the water conservation projects and their Kumu dvathi river rejuvenation project, the author has argued that while organisation and the state. The state run by religious organisations. such colla borative efforts rope in a range actors are not only silent observers of the Using the example of the Manjra of actors, the local actors, however, are activities of religious organisation, often river rejuvenation project, this either completely excluded or involved violating the rules and regulations, but at much later stages of the project. In under their infl uence can often actively article further decodes this article, I am taking this argument a engage and perform those activities, Bhattacharya’s observation of the step ahead to explore whether such nex- violating its own rules. gurus receiving “unprecedented us formulated by the religious organisa- structural cooperation” and tions across bureaucracy, policymakers, Manjra River Rejuvenation capitalists, media houses, and experts In early 2016, as a result of the second “universal acceptability” from all, can lead to better implementation and consecutive drought, all sources of drin- including the state actors. outcome of development projects (here, king water supply of the Latur Municipal river rejuvenation) or not. Corporation (LMC) went dry. In response In this context, this article examines to this crisis, AoL and RSS–JS gathered local the Manjra river rejuvenation project in- leaders and residents together to form itiated and led by the AoL and RSS Jalyukta Latur Samiti (JLS, henceforth)1 Jankalyan Samiti (RSS–JS) for Latur city with the objective of strengthening the in Mahara shtra in the summer of 2016. water sources of the city. The JLS decided In her article, Bhattacharya (2019: 57) to rejuvenate the Manjra river by deep- has, also, made passing reference to this ening and widening the upstream river ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY project. This article analyses the process channel of the two barrages—Sai and of implementation of the Manjra river re- Nagzari—to create a storage of 18 million juvenation project, explores the knowl- cubic metres (mcm), which the JLS claimed edge claims of the AoL and RSS–JS per- would be suffi cient to meet the drinking taining to water conservation by exam- water demand of the city (Ghadyalpatil ining the validity of the approach of 2016; Thomas 2016) (Figure 1, p 58). river rejuvenation with reference to the The rejuvenation work was proclaimed hydrology of the Manjra basin, and fi nally as a permanent solution for the water assessing the actual benefi ts in contrast to crisis of Latur city, and the residents and Sachin Tiwale ([email protected]) is with the promises made by religious organisa- others were appealed to for contributing the Centre for Water Policy, Regulation and tions to gain public participation. to the project that promises piped water Governance, Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Despite being lauded as a successful supply to the city every alternate day.2 Mumbai. project and even after witnessing a good Unlike the Kumudvathi river rejuvenation
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 57 DISCUSSION Figure 1: Map Showing Manjra River along with Manjra Dam, Barrages and River Rejuvenation Worksite 154 mcm (WRD 2015, 2017). Therefore, 76.25° E 76.50° E 76.75° E Manjra basin is an overdeveloped and closed basin5 where the capacity of exist- ing water storage structures and total per- mitted water use is much more than the quantity of renewable water available in the basin. There is no “excess” water avail- 18.50° N 18.50° N able that can just be stored by the widen- ing and deepening of a river channel.
Is It Logical? The Manjra dam alone supplies 20 mcm of water to Latur city through direct pipelines constructed from the dam to 18.25° N
18.25° N the city, which was enough to meet the then water demand of the city. One of the claims made by JLS members in sup- port of their work was that the addition-
al storage created by them would help
76.25° E 76.50° E 76.75° E Latur in times of distress. However, the case, as elaborated by Bhattacharya the guru and their religious organisa- validity of this claim is questionable. As (2019), here, the private cor porations, tions are perceived as omnis cient, and Figure 1 indicates, the largest reservoir organisations and the common people, therefore, no one involved in the project of the Manjra basin, with a capacity of including residents of Latur city, partici- raised questions over the feasibility of 250.7 mcm, is located upstream of Latur pated in the rejuvenation work since its the project and fulfi lment of its stated city (CWC 2015). This is followed by a inception. However, this participation objectives. series of 14 barrages constructed on the was limited to only monetary contribution In this section, I am assessing the knowl- river, before it enters Karnataka. Nagzari and voluntary labour, while the entire edge claims of AoL and RSS–JS through and Sai are two such barrages that were idea was conceived and executed by the three fundamental questions: (i) Is there built to supply 4.26 mcm6 water for leading religious organisations. They any excess water available in the river Latur city and JLS was focusing on the successfully raised around `70 million basin before being stored?; (ii) is it logical strengthening of these sources through from the people and excavated 4.3 mcm to dig a river when the city already has widening and deepening activities. of silt using more than 25 massive earth- enough water reservation in upstream However, between the Manjra dam moving machines, over a period of two dam?; and (iii) can Latur city use this and the Nagzari barrage, over a river months. Environmentalists have already additionally created storage capacity? channel length of 50 km, six barrages criticised such massive excavation affect- already exist. Also, there is no major ing river ecology (Chari and Sharma 2016; Is There Any Excess Water? tributary bringing additional water from Jamwal 2016). Therefore, I am not repro- Though the JLS was intended to create the catchment to these two barrages. As ducing those arguments here. 18 mcm of storage, the question is a result, the infl ow in Nagzari and Sai whether the basin had that volume of barrages is mainly controlled by the Assessing Knowledge Claims excess water to fi ll the additionally cre- Manjra dam and the six upstream bar- The leading religious organisations, AoL ated storage. The analysis of water avail- rages. Unless these upstream structures and RSS–JS, were so confi dent about the ability data at basin scale and existing overfl ow or release water, Nagzari and ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY deepening and widening of the river storage structures constructed on the Sai will not get adequate water to fi ll the that they initiated work without prepa- Manjra river indicates that there is no additionally created storage capacity by ring any feasibility report and detailed such excess water available. JLS. So, the question is: In the absence of project report. As explained by one of As per the Godavari river basin plan excess water in the highly controlled the AoL leaders, Mahadev Gomare, prepared by the Water Resources Depart- and regulated basin, how will these Preparation of feasibility report and DPR ment (WRD) of Government of Maharash- barrages get water to fi ll the additionally leads to wastage of time. We want to work tra, Manjra basin is already facing water created storage? fast. We do not want to work like govern- shortages (WRD 2017). The total water Digging a river channel and creating a 3 ment engineers. availability in Manjra basin is 623 mcm; shallow water storage cannot be appro- While interacting with the AoL leaders, however, the live storage capacity of com- priate solutions as this would increase I realised that none of them were formally pleted and ongoing projects is 628 mcm. evaporation and seepage losses than trained in hydrology, geology and river The total permitted water use is 777 mcm,4 facilitate water storage even in the dam ecology. As Bhattacharya (2019) explain ed, surpassing the total water availability by itself. This indicates that the entire
58 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly DISCUSSION programme was wrongly conceived, and the work of the AoL and RSS–JS has the work, there was no mention of its it could have been avoided if a proper reached the taps of the citizens in Latur, precise impact on the water supply of feasibility study would have been con- despite spending around `70 million for Latur city.11 ducted. Moreover, even if water is con- the conservation project, even after wit- served somehow in these two barrages, nessing a rainfall in 2017 that was 21% in Blurring Boundaries then the LMC needs to offi cially reserve excess of the average normal rainfall in In her paper, Bhattacharya (2019: 55) has that additional water from the WRD be- Latur (IMD 2016). Residents in Latur had mentioned the “uncontainability” of fore using it. But, with the existing water were still receiving water only once in gurus and “unprecedented structural reservations exceeding total availability a week. cooperation” they receive because of the by 158 mcm and Latur city already having belief in their omniscient nature. These suffi cient reservation in the Manjra dam, Reality vs Populism characteristics of gurus and their respec- it is most unlikely that it will get offi cial This approach of widening and deepen- tive religious organisations have also reservation of the water as it is going to ing adopted by the AoL and RSS–JS is a played critical roles during the imple- create confl icts among water users. Since popular technocratic supply-side meas- mentation of the Manjra river rejuve- the basin is closed, the water conserva- ure that neglects the real issues of water nation project (Tiwale and Deshmukh tion practice needs to be evaluated care- supply systems. The distribution network 2017). The Manjra river, being a sixth fully before implementation, as it can of Latur city is old and leaky, causing order stream, was not at all eligible for lead to reallocation of existing water us- signifi cant water losses. The non- widening and deepening activities, which ages without offi cial reservation. Then, revenue water (NRW) in Latur is estimated are commonly prescribed for small Latur city will be using the water share of in the range of 50%–55%. The water streams and rivulets (GoM 2013, 2015).12 the downstream users. It further means treatment plants are poorly maintained.10 At the local level, though the public that the urban water users of Latur city Therefore, such efforts of increasing offi cials were not offi cially involved in are grabbing the water of downstream water availability at the source are ques- the imp lementation processes, they were farmers and villagers and depriving them tionable when half of this water is lost in very much aware about the AoL and RSS– from fulfi lling their drinking and irriga- the distribution network. Thus, in the JS work and that it was violating multi- tion water needs. year following the rejuvenation work of ple rules. Yet they refrained from taking 2016, even after witnessing an excess any action, such as invoking Section 93 Can Latur Use the Stored Water? rainfall and adequate availability of wa- of the Maharashtra Irrigation Act, 1976 The other important question is that if ter in the Manjra dam, the LMC could not (GoM 1976), which empowers an irriga- water is somehow stored in the addition- use its own water quota because of the tion offi cer to intervene in the work of ally created capacity, then can Latur use bottlenecks existing in the network and modifying the river channel and prohib- the stored water to fulfi l its demand? treatment plants, and continued supply- iting the act of damaging, altering, en- Unfortunately, the answer is no. No infra- ing water only once in a week. larging and obs tructing a notifi ed river. structural arrangement was made at However, activities like reducing losses An executive engineer of the WRD, Nagzari and Sai barrages to pick up the and increasing the effi ciency of the water who had visited the worksite multiple additionally stored water, treat it and supply system or increasing groundwater times when rejuvenation work was go- pump it towards the city.7 Without cross- tables by rainwater harvesting in the ing on, when asked about his visits and checking the adequacy of the required city are perhaps not as attractive as a about not taking any actions, replied,13 infrastructure, the widening and deep- massive worksite where more than 25 I am not offi cially involved with this ening of the river yielded nothing for the excavators and 50 dumpers are operat- (Manjra) case. The collector offi ce never citizens of Latur, apart from damaging ing and changing the landscape, with consulted with us (irrigation department) the river channel and riverine ecosystem. politically eminent people making site regarding this work … I visited the site as an An interview with an engineer from visits and or appearances at events to individual citizen of Latur … I also used to ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY visit the Nagzari barrage to ensure the safety LMC the water supply department of mark the project’s success (Scroll 2016; of barrage structure and especially its revealed that the department was never Samvada 2016), while any critical evalu- foundation as deepening was going on. I did consulted while preparing and execut- ation of the project’s effi cacy remains far- not monitor the activities of deepening and ing the entire plan. This itself questions fetched. Initially started with the objec tive widening of the river bed. the participatory mechanism of the pro- of permanently tackling water scarcity In fact, the boundaries between the ject implementers. At Nagzari barrage, of the city, the project later became a state actors and the religious organisa- which is bigger in size, the level of addi- mere symbol of success with the pictures tions were so blurred that this work by tional storage created by deepening was of the deepened and widened channel AoL and RSS–JS, violating multiple rules well below the existing jackwell.8 There- brimming with water, an obvious occur- and regulations initiated, was inaugu- fore, the available infrastructure was rence after a good rainfall. No one ques- rated, visi ted and even applauded by not able to fetch the additionally stored tioned whether the intended purpose bureaucrats, ministers and experts water.9 As a result of such planning was met or not. Even in a booklet pub- (Scroll 2016; Sakal 2016).14 Ironically, blunders, not a single drop of water from lished by the JLS, after the completion of the then chief minister of the state had
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 59 DISCUSSION
announced the support of `54.7 million a temporary makeshift arrangement (fl oating Bandh with Deepening,” Government Resolu- for this project; and according to an engi- pumps and pipeline) to extract water was cost- tion No RaKruYo-2011/Case No 72/JaLa-7, Wa- ing `2–`2.5 million and if water supply depart- ter Conservation Department, Government of neer of the WRD it was the fi rst project ment wants to plan a permeant measure by Maharashtra. where the department had received shifting the jackwell at a lower level, then it is — (2015): “Implementing River Rejuvenation Pro- going to cost approximately `30 million. Simi- 15 gram with People Participation under Jalyukta money before any technical sanction. larly, additional investment is needed at Sai Shivar Campaign by Convergence of Different This explains the inertia of the state barrage. Schemes,” Government Resolution No NaPuYo 10 Interview with water supply engineer. offi cials in intervening, even when the –2015/Case No 203/JaLa–7, Water Conserva- 11 In the post-implementation period, some mem- tion Department, Government of Maharashtra. rules and regulations get violated. bers of AoL and JLS talked about increase in IMD (2016): “2016 Southwest Monsoon End of groundwater level and water made available This illustrates the relationship bet- Season Report,” Pune: India Meteorological for farmers, as an impact of their work. How- Department, Earth System Science Organiza- ever, it is like changing a goalpost, as these ob- ween the state actors and the gurus and tion (ESSO), Ministry of Earth Sciences. jectives could have been achieved by imple- their religious organisations. The guru is menting other measures (for example, water- Jamwal, N (2016): “Playing with Water: Karnataka’s pervasive and manages all—from local shed development) without damaging the river Controversial River Rejuvenation Plan,” ecosystem and the farmlands of neighbouring Hindustan Times, 23 May, http://www.hindu- bureaucracy to ministers and chief min- farmers. stantimes.com/india/playing-with-water-kar- ister of states in such a way that no one 12 Stream deepening work was only permitted for nataka-s-controversial-river-rejuvenation- plan/story-ZRTPnQaamPVY1cVlhYPC6K.html. counters their actions violating the Con- second and third order streams. 13 Personal interview with an executive engineer Sakal (2016): “Laturachaya Kamasathi Tin Kotinchi stitution. In fact, at a later stage, the of the state water resource department. Madat” (Marathi), 6 May. state itself is aligned with the guru, 14 Based on information available on JLS mobile Samvada (2016): “RSS Sarasanghachalak Mohan Bhagwat Appreciates#JalayuktLatur Project, becomes a partner in violating its own app. 15 Same as note 13. A Successful Water Conservation Initiative at rules, and contributes in the ruination of Latur,” http://samvada.org/ 2016/news/jalay- uktlatur/. a river ecosystem of which the state is a References Scroll (2016): “Maharashtra Minister Draws Criti- custodian. At the same time, the fi nd- Bhattacharya, Srirupa (2019): “Groundwater, Gurus cism for Clicking ‘Insensitive’ Selfi e in Drought- ings from the Manjra project raise con- and Governmentality: Seva in the Neo-liberal hit Latur,” 18 April, https://scroll.in/latest/ Development Regime in India,” Economic & 806799/maharashtra-minister-draws-criticism- cerns over the increasing involvement of Political Weekly, Vol 54, No 32, pp 51–59. for-clicking-insensitive-selfi e-in-drought-hit- such religious organisations proclaiming Chari, M and S Sharma (2016): “Can Maharashtra latur. themselves as water experts and the sav- Prevent Drought by Digging Rivers? The Govern- Thomas, Prince Mathews (2016): “Let Down by ment and Some NGOs Think So. But Ecologists Govt, Latur’s Thirsty Residents Step Up,” Hindu iours of people from water crises, while Disagree,” Scroll, 9 August, https://scroll.in/ Business Line, 15 April, http://www.thehindu- tinkering with the sensitive river ecosys- article/812718/can-maharashtra-prevent- businessline.com/news/national/let-down-by- drought-by-digging-rivers. govt-laturs-thirsty-residents-step-up/arti- tem with their questionable knowledge CWC (2015): “National Register of Large Dam,” cle8480462.ece. claims towards water conservation. Central Water Commission. Tiwale, S and A Deshmukh (2017): “CCombating Ghadyalpatil, Abhiram (2016): “Water Train and Drought with a Haphazard Measure: A Story Notes Beyond—How Latur Is Tackling Drought,” of Manjara River Rejuvenation,” India Water Livemint, 19 April, http://www.livemint.com/ Portal, https://www.indiawaterportal.org/ar- 1 The complete name is Sarvajanik Jalyukta Politics/JddufMwmfdkAjuVYEJ8oNL/Water- ticles/combating-drought-haphazard-meas- Latur Vyawasthapan Samiti but often referred train-and-beyondhow-Latur-is-tackling-drought. ure-story-manjra-river-rejuvenation-0. to as Jalyukta Latur Samiti (JLS). html. WRD (2015): “State Water Resource Plan: Godavari 2 Considering the past situation of Latur city, GoM (1976): “The Maharashtra Irrigation Act, Basin—Draft Plan,” Water Resources Depart- even an assurance of alternate day water sup- 1976,” Low and Judiciary Department, Govern- ment, Government of Maharashtra. ply was promising enough to catch the attention ment of Maharashtra. — (2017): “Integrated State Water Plan for Godavari of citizens. — (2013): “Guidelines: Nullah Deepening and Basin in Maharashtra Volume-I: Integrated 3 Interview with members of Jalyukta Latur Desiltation of Existing Cement Nullah Bandh Plan,” Water Resources Department, Government Samiti (JLS) and Art of Living (AoL) leader and Construction of New Cement Nullah of Maharashtra. Mahadev Gomare. 4 This does not include environmental water use—water needed for natural ecosystem. EPW E-books 5 Closed basin is defi ned as a basin where water use has exceeded or approaching to the total Select EPW books are now available as e-books in Kindle and iBook (Apple) formats. renewable water available in the basin. 6 Interview with water supply engineer of Latur The titles are
ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Municipal Corporation. 7 Originally, for extracting water from these bar- 1. Village Society (ED. SURINDER JODHKA) rages, two independent intake wells, water (http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00CS62AAW ; treatment plants and pumping stations were constructed at Nagzari and Sai barrages. How- https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/village-society/id640486715?mt=11) ever, over the period, LMC was gradually shifted to Manjra dam to meet its demand. In 2016, 2. Environment, Technology and Development (ED. ROHAN D’SOUZA) while collecting the data, the water treatment (http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00CS624E4 ; plant of Nagzari (Warwanti) was found to be not functioning for last 10 years and water https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/environment-technology-development/ treatment plant of Sai (Arvi) was barely work- id641419331?mt=11) ing at half of its design capacity because of age- ing and poor maintenance. 3. Windows of Opportunity: Memoirs of an Economic Adviser (BY K S KRISHNASWAMY) 8 A construction of a well in a river channel to lift the water using pump. (http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00CS622GY ; 9 Additional arrangement is needed to extract https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/windows-of-opportunity/id640490173?mt=11) the water from Nagzari barrage, which in- cludes installation of a pump and a new pipe- Please visit the respective sites for prices of the e-books. More titles will be added gradually. line. According to water supply engineer, even
60 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly CURRENT STATISTICS EPW Research Foundation
Wholesale Price Index Foreign Trade The annual infl ation rate of WPI decreased to 1.7% during April–March The trade defi cit stood at $6.8 billion (bn) in April 2020 compared to $15.3 2019–20 from 4.3% registered during the corresponding period of the bn registered a year ago. Exports declined by (-)60.3% to $10.4 bn from previous year 2018–19. The index for primary articles declined by (-)0.8% in $26.1 bn recorded a year ago. Imports decreased by (-)58.7% to $17.1 bn April 2020 against 6.6% reported a year ago and 3.7% a month ago. The food from $41.1 bn. Oil imports were lower by (-)59.0% to $4.7 bn and non-oil index decreased by 2.6% compared to 6.4% recorded a year ago and 4.9% imports by (-)58.5% to $12.5 bn from $11.4 bn and $30.0 bn, respectively. a month ago. The index for fuel and power fell by (-)10.1% against 3.8% During the fi nancial year 2019–20, cumulative exports declined by (-)4.8% to registered a year ago. The WPI index for all commodities was not computed $314.3 bn and imports by (-)9.1% to $467.2 bn from $330.1 bn and $514.1 bn, because of the non-availability of the index for manufactured products. respectively, recorded in 2018–19.
Consumer Price Index Index of Industrial Production The CPI-infl ation rate increased to 5.9% in March 2020 from 2.9% registered a year The year-on-year IIP growth rate declined to -16.7% in March 2020 from 2.7% ago, but was lower than 6.6% reported in February 2020. The consumer food price reported a year ago with growth in manufacturing segment falling to -20.6% index rose by 8.8% against 0.3% reported a year ago, but was lower than 10.8% a from 3.1%. Production in mining sector remained unchanged and electricity month ago. The CPI-rural infl ation rate stood at 6.1% and the urban infl ation rate at generation declined by (-)6.8% against 2.2%. As per use-based classifi cation, 5.7% compared to 1.8% and 4.1%, recorded a year ago. As per Labour Bureau data, the growth in capital goods segment fell to -35.6% and infrastructure goods the CPI-infl ation rate of agricultural labourers (CPI–AL) increased to 8.8% in April to -23.8% from their respective growth rates of -9.1% and 5.1%. Production 2020 from 5.0% registered a year ago while that of industrial workers (CPI–IW) of consumer durables contracted by (-)33.1% and of non-durables by (-)16.2% decreased to 5.4% from 8.3% reported a year ago. against -3.2% and 1.4%, respectively.
Movement of WPI Inflation April–March Merchandise Trade April 2020 April 2020 Over Month Over Year April–March Year-on-Year in % ($ bn) (%) (%) (2019–20 over 2018–19) (%) 6 Exports 10.4 -51.6 -60.3 -4.8 Imports 17.1 -45.1 -58.6 -9.1 4 3.1% Trade Deficit 6.8 -30.7 -55.9 -16.9 Data is provisional. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry. 2 1.0% Components of Trade April 2019 and April 2020 0 $30.0 billion Non-oil Imports -2 32 $26.1 billion Apr May June July DecNovOctSepAug Jan Feb Mar* Exports
* Data is provisional; Base: 2011–12 = 100. $11.4 billion $12.5 billion Oil Imports $10.4 billion
$4.7 billion Trends in WPI and Its Components April 2020* (%)
Financial Year (Averages) Weights Over Month Over Year 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 $6.8 billion All commodities 100 - - 2.9 4.3 1.7 -15 Primary articles 22.6 -0.9 -0.8 1.4 2.7 6.9 $15.3 billion Food articles 15.3 0.7 2.6 2.1 0.3 8.4 Trade Deficit Fuel and power 13.2 -8.2 -10.1 8.2 11.5 -1.7 2019 APRIL 2020 APRIL Manufactured products 64.2 - - 2.7 3.7 0.3 Oil refers to crude petroleum and petroleum products, while non-oil refers to all other commodities. * Data is provisional; Base: 2011–12=100; Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Movement of IIP Growth April–March Movement of CPI Inflation January 2018–March 2020 Year-on-Year in % 10 Year-on-Year in % 2018–19 2.7% 15 5 0
8.8% -5 10 Miscellaneous -10 5.9% 2019–20 -15 5 -16.7% 4.4% -20 Apr May June July DecNovOctSepAug Jan Feb Mar* CPI 0 * March 2020 are quick estimates; Base: 2011–12=100. ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Consumer Food Industrial Growth: Sector-wise March 2020* (%) -5 Weights Over Over Financial Year (Avgs) Jan DNOSAJJMAMF Jan DNOSAJJMAMF Jan Mar*F 2018 2019 2020 Month Year 2018–19 2019–20 General index 100 -10.0 -16.7 3.8 -0.7 * Data is provisional.
Source: National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Base: 2012=100. Mining 14.4 7.5 0.0 2.9 1.7 Manufacturing 77.6 -13.9 -20.6 3.9 -1.3 CPI: Rural and Urban March 2020* (%) Electricity 8.0 -3.0 -6.8 5.2 1.1 Latest Over Over Financial Year (Avgs) Month Index Month Year 2018–19 2019–20 Industrial Growth: Use-based Primary goods 34.0 3.4 -3.1 3.5 0.8 CPI Combined 148.7 -0.3 5.9 3.4 4.3 Capital goods 8.2 -21.6 -35.6 2.7 -13.7 Rural (2012=100) 149.8 -0.4 6.1 3.0 5.4 Intermediate goods 17.2 -11.1 -18.5 0.9 8.8 Urban (2012=100) 147.4 -0.2 5.7 3.9 4.8 Infrastructure/Construction goods 12.3 -16.0 -23.8 7.3 -4.0 CPI: Occupation-wise# Consumer durables 12.8 -25.3 -33.1 5.5 -8.4 Industrial workers (2001=100) 329.0 0.9 5.4 5.4 7.5 Consumer non-durables 15.3 -16.0 -16.2 4.0 0.5 Agricultural labourers (1986–87=100) 1014.0 0.7 8.8 2.1 8.0 *March 2020 are quick estimates; Base: 2011-12=100; * Provisional; #April 2020 Source: NSO (rural & urban); Labour Bureau (IW and AL). Source: NSO, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Comprehensive current economic statistics with regular weekly updates are available at: http://www.epwrf.in/currentstat.aspx.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 61 CURRENT STATISTICS EPW Research Foundation
India’s Quarterly Estimates of Final Expenditures on GDP 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 ` Crore | At 2011–12 Prices Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Private final consumption expenditure 1769688 (9.3) 1750056 (5.5) 1911901 (5.3) 1948175 (7.7) 1889008 (6.7) 1903853 (8.8) 2046415 (7.0) 2068782 (6.2) 1992967 (5.5) 2025488 (6.4) 2182352 (6.6) 2125099 (2.7) Government final consumption expenditure 362769 (21.6) 367882 (7.4) 319547 (10.5) 293024 (8.9) 393709 (8.5) 407780 (10.8) 341988 (7.0) 335089 (14.4) 418249 (6.2) 465643 (14.2) 387729 (13.4) 380747 (13.6) Gross fixed capital formation 958859 (0.7) 967190 (5.9) 1014300 (8.8) 1120847 (13.7) 1082670 (12.9) 1077942 (11.5) 1130201 (11.4) 1170154 (4.4) 1132195 (4.6) 1035736 (-3.9) 1071838 (-5.2) 1094323 (-6.5) Change in stocks 49996 (61.7) 54050 (75.8) 52497 (78.3) 59252 (79.6) 64131 (28.3) 66159 (22.4) 63999 (21.9) 70126 (18.4) 67328 (5.0) 66999 (1.3) 64718 (1.1) 70445 (0.5) Valuables 62905 (80.1) 46317 (25.0) 39512 (11.2) 43928 (1.5) 41080 (-34.7) 44629 (-3.6) 39252 (-0.7) 44772 (1.9) 51347 (25.0) 51761 (16.0) 43368 (10.5) 46153 (3.1) Net trade (Export–import) -137041 -85422 -128661 -125231 -122238 -141491 -104580 -51926 -117242 -76355 -44444 -59686 Exports 627176 (3.9) 639543 (4.5) 646620 (4.4) 688438 (5.0) 686695 (9.5) 719352 (12.5) 748505 (15.8) 767991 (11.6) 708546 (3.2) 703282 (-2.2) 703023 (-6.1) 702809 (-8.5) Less imports 764217 (21.8) 724965 (10.5) 775281 (14.1) 813669 (23.6) 808933 (5.9) 860843 (18.7) 853085 (10.0) 819917 (0.8) 825788 (2.1) 779637 (-9.4) 747467 (-12.4) 762495 (-7.0) Discrepancies 69397 132000 105705 151725 10803 73679 -17242 52683 -9576 15062 -62812 146521 Gross domestic product (GDP) 3136572 (5.1) 3232072 (7.3) 3314801 (8.7) 3491719 (7.4) 3359162 (7.1) 3432553 (6.2) 3500033 (5.6) 3689678 (5.7) 3535267 (5.2) 3584335 (4.4) 3642748 (4.1) 3803601 (3.1)
India’s Overall Balance of Payments (Net): Quarterly 2018–19 ($ mn) 2019–20 ($ mn) 2018–19 (` bn) 2019–20 (` bn) Item Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Current account -15803 -19054 -17752 -4647 -14417 -6512 -1417 -1059 [-2.3] -1337 [-2.9] -1279 [-2.7] -328 [-0.7] -1003 [-2.0] -459 [-0.9] -101 [-0.2] Merchandise -45751 -50037 -49281 -35214 -46182 -38085 -34625 -3065 -3510 -3552 -2482 -3212 -2682 -2466 Invisibles 29947 30984 31529 30567 31765 31573 33208 2006 2174 2272 2154 2209 2224 2365 Services 18676 20256 21678 21331 20076 20444 21880 1251 1421 1562 1503 1396 1440 1558 of which: Software services 18605 19286 19895 19868 20998 21064 21455 1246 1353 1434 1400 1460 1484 1528 Transfers 17031 19331 17424 16160 17964 19952 18693 1141 1356 1256 1139 1249 1405 1331 of which: Private 17216 19511 17558 16317 18224 20188 18932 1153 1369 1265 1150 1267 1422 1349 Income -5760 -8603 -7573 -6925 -6275 -8822 -7364 -386 -604 -546 -488 -436 -621 -525 Capital account 4787 16604 13770 19241 28208 12283 22355 321 [0.7] 1165 [2.5] 992 [12.1] 1356 [2.7] 1962 [4.0] 865 [1.7] 1592 [3.1] of which: Foreign investment 1427 7612 5199 15856 19041 10389 17802 96 534 375 1117 1324 732 1268 Overall balance -11338 -1868 -4296 14162 13984 5118 21601 -760 [-1.7] -131 [-0.3] -310 [-0.6] 998 [2.0] 973 [2.0] 360 [0.7] 1539 [3.0] Figures in square brackets are percentage to GDP.
Foreign Exchange Reserves Variation 29 May 31 May 31 March Over Over Financial Year So Far Financial Year Excluding gold but including revaluation effects 2020 2019 2020 Month Year 2019–20 2020–21 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 ` crore 3453011 456640 395578 3344616 11898 61063 8764 218620 25300 353270 68050 668976 $ mn 456640 11427 21290 443645 58957 83458 148830 16297 10160 53217 -14168 56831
Monetary Aggregates Variation Outstanding Over Month Over Year Financial Year So Far Financial Year ` Crore 2020 2019–20 2020–21 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20
Money supply (M3) as on 22 May 17231582 209789 (1.2) 1810505 (11.7) -10989 (-0.1) 431652 (2.6) 1170657 (9.2) 1469479 (10.5) 1367864 (8.9) Components Currency with public 2512850 88027 (3.6) 395484 (18.7) 65157 (3.2) 163135 (6.9) 495583 (39.2) 292496 (16.6) 297506 (14.5) Demand deposits 1567065 -22805 (-1.4) 139313 (9.8) -198760 (-12.2) -170627 (-9.8) 86962 (6.2) 142800 (9.6) 111180 (6.8) Time deposits 13110139 142609 (1.1) 1262632 (10.7) 125903 (1.1) 436123 (3.4) 585266 (5.8) 1026348 (9.6) 952412 (8.1) Other deposits with RBI 41528 1958 (4.9) 13076 (46.0) -3290 (-10.4) 3021 (7.8) 2817 (13.4) 7835 (32.8) 6765 (21.3) Sources Net bank credit to government 5551562 135366 (2.5) 947156 (20.6) 215917 (4.9) 644979 (13.1) 144799 (3.8) 387090 (9.7) 518094 (11.8) Bank credit to commercial sector 10874871 -44177 (-0.4) 645211 (6.3) -153059 (-1.5) -163774 (-1.5) 802225 (9.5) 1169004 (12.7) 655926 (6.3) Net foreign exchange assets 3908662 38560 (1.0) 772112 (24.6) 65709 (2.1) 109760 (2.9) 364065 (14.2) 148546 (5.1) 728061 (23.7) Banking sector’s net non-monetary liabilities 3129827 -80040 (-2.5) 554378 (21.5) 139579 (5.7) 159313 (5.4) 140995 (6.8) 235395 (10.7) 534644 (21.9) Reserve money as on 29 May 3131576 65382 (2.1) 331472 (11.8) 29623 (1.1) 101903 (3.4) 518300 (27.3) 351701 (14.5) 259192 (9.4) Components Currency in circulation 2616468 81334 (3.2) 419143 (19.1) 60554 (2.8) 169189 (6.9) 494078 (37.0) 307423 (16.8) 310508 (14.5) Bankers’ deposits with RBI 468973 -17366 (-3.6) -104108 (-18.2) -28888 (-4.8) -74915 (-13.8) 21405 (3.9) 36444 (6.4) -58081 (-9.6) Other deposits with RBI 46136 1414 (3.2) 16437 (55.3) -2043 (-6.4) 7629 (19.8) 2817 (13.4) 7835 (32.8) 6765 (21.3) Sources Net RBI credit to Government 1179922 -134101 (-10.2) 235922 (25.0) 142049 (17.7) 187730 (18.9) -144836 (-23.3) 325987 (68.5) 190241 (23.7) of which: Centre 1172777 -137465 (-10.5) 230057 (24.4) 142247 (17.8) 183036 (18.5) -145304 (-23.5) 326187 (68.8) 189268 (23.6) RBI credit to banks & commercial sector -322288 142735 (-30.7) -322252 (895144.4) -152887 (-100.0) -121395 (60.4) 372643 (-120.5) 89478 (0.0) -353744 (0.0) Net foreign exchange assets of RBI 3708976 103365 (2.9) 773862 (26.4) 86527 (3.0) 118574 (3.3) 363571 (15.2) 87806 (3.2) 741815 (26.0) Govt’s currency liabilities to the public 26315 0 (0.0) 360 (1.4) 67 (0.3) 0 (0.0) 572 (2.3) 236 (0.9) 427 (1.6) Net non-monetary liabilities of RBI 1461348 46617 (3.3) 356420 (32.3) 46133 (4.4) 83006 (6.0) 73650 (8.8) 151805 (16.7) 319547 (30.2)
Scheduled Commercial Banks’ Indicators (` Crore) Variation Outstanding Over Month Over Year Financial Year So Far Financial Year ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY (As on 22 May) 2020 2019–20 2020–21 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 Aggregate deposits 13830525 119840 (0.9) 1330967 (10.6) -74214 (-0.6) 263033 (1.9) 668390 (6.2) 1147722 (10.0) 993720 (7.9) Demand 1447222 -22007 (-1.5) 134133 (10.2) -198198 (-13.1) -169781 (-10.5) 88843 (6.9) 141004 (10.3) 105716 (7.0) Time 12383303 141847 (1.2) 1196835 (10.7) 123984 (1.1) 432814 (3.6) 579547 (6.1) 1006717 (10.0) 888005 (8.0) Cash in hand 87881 310 (0.4) 10459 (13.5) 2546 (3.4) 621 (0.7) -1295 (-2.1) 14811 (24.7) 12384 (16.5) Balance with RBI 433987 10256 (2.4) -64208 (-12.9) -67512 (-11.9) -102199 (-19.1) 16906 (3.3) 40021 (7.6) -29521 (-5.2) Investments 4054375 84504 (2.1) 532475 (15.1) 140844 (4.2) 360805 (9.8) 287494 (9.5) 62602 (1.9) 312514 (9.2) of which: Government securities 4052647 84069 (2.1) 532676 (15.1) 140969 (4.2) 367730 (10.0) 287657 (9.5) 61595 (1.9) 305915 (9.1) Bank credit 10223150 -46108 (-0.4) 601605 (6.3) -150177 (-1.5) -147711 (-1.4) 783965 (10.0) 1146297 (13.3) 599139 (6.1) of which: Non-food credit 10143734 -72881 (-0.7) 587911 (6.2) -174289 (-1.8) -175363 (-1.7) 795906 (10.2) 1146676 (13.4) 588985 (6.1)
Capital Markets 5 June Month Year Financial Year So Far 2019–20 End of Financial Year 2020 Ago Ago Trough Peak Trough Peak 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 S&P BSE SENSEX (Base: 1978–79=100) 34287 (-14.5) 31454 40084 (14.8) 27591 34287 25981 41953 32969 (12.1) 39714.20 (12.4) 29816 (-21.8) S&P BSE-100 (Base: 1983–84=100) 10252 (-15.6) 9305 12145 (11.7) 8180 10252 7683 12456 10503 (11.5) 12044.07 (9.1) 8693 (-25.2) S&P BSE-200 (1989–90=100) 4276 (-15.0) 3880 5028 (10.0) 3416 4276 3209 5185 4433 (12.0) 4986.55 (7.1) 3614 (-25.1) CNX Nifty-50 (Base: 3 Nov 1995=1000) 10142 (-15.6) 9206 12022 (13.5) 8084 10142 7610 12362 10114 (11.1) 11922.80 (11.1) 8660 (-24.3) CNX Nifty-500 8299 (-16.0) 7523 9876 (8.4) 6638 8299 6243 10119 8912 (12.6) 9805.05 (5.3) 7003 (-26.3) Figures in brackets are percentage variations over the specified or over the comparable period of the previous year. | (-) = not relevant | - = not available | NS = new series | PE = provisional estimates Comprehensive current economic statistics with regular weekly updates are available at: http://www.epwrf.in/currentstat.aspx.
62 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly POSTSCRIPT SUSTAINABILITY Fish for an Island
Studying how major climatic events are affecting the ecology of coral reef systems, a marine biologist reflects on what this means for communities whose lives are intertwined with the ecology.
Shreya Yadav
adia walked briskly up to me, her hands full of food the boat onto the beach, forming a grey-black heap where they containers. “You wanted short-eats, no?” she asked as landed. Someone then sorted them into a different pile, tallying Nshe led me to the group of women who were waiting the count with one fi sh thrown to the side for every hundred close by. Earlier in the day while interviewing her, I had counted. The fi sh just keep coming: 300, 500, and then 1,000 asked her about recipes for Maldivian short-eats, fried tuna- fi sh glittered under the singular lamp illuminating the scene. fi lled snacks that often accompany their morning or evening A small crowd had gathered by this time and, as the counting coffee. The women had just returned from a meeting at the neared its end, wheelbarrows were brought out to further school with plenty of leftovers, so we made our way to one of separate the catch. The call for evening prayer came and went. their homes. Inside, Nadia arranged a plate of gulha, samosa, People sat at the water’s edge, gutting and cleaning the tuna. and boakiba in front of me, and poured me a glass of juice. Entrails and viscera were buried in the sand, and the fi sh were Three other women—all part of the Women’s Development rinsed in seawater. An eagle ray, smelling the blood, hovered Committee on this island of Rinbudhoo—stood around the close to the boat. A total of 1,565 fi sh were caught that day, and table, giggling at my obvious pleasure. These were all snacks the catch was distributed to everyone on the island. Much of it Nadia had prepared at home, which she often shipped to would be boiled in homes to make rihakuru, a fi sh paste that Malé or sold to tourists. Her boakiba (fi sh cake) was fantas- is often eaten with rice. Some of it would be dried or smoked. tic, spicy and dense, but not heavy. Some studies in This way, the fi sh would keep for long, and could A few minutes later, we heard that the boat that ecology happen far be used for months after. Pieces of this smoked had gone out that afternoon was just pulling into from humans, but fi sh are what made Nadia’s boakiba so delicious. the lagoon. Th e previous day, my collaborator on islands like A community fi shing day like this is not a rare Fisam and I had been told that we should try to these, things are event, but it is certainly not common practice on the make it out to see the catch of frigate tuna when it necessarily more islands anymore. For a few days around the time of was landed the next evening. “You have to go intertwined. I was the full moon, frigate tuna enter the lagoons of some fast!” Nadia said, motioning for me to fi nish eating islands in large numbers, likely a seasonal response coming to quickly. Fisam and I made our way to the beach on to the availability of prey fi sh in these waters. For a appreciate that the island’s north-eastern edge, the sand a muted large catch to be landed, a collective effort is re- pink and orange in the late light of the setting sun. quired. Someone brings the boat, and a handful of fi shers bring Rinbudhoo is one of the six inhabited islands in Dhaalu atoll in their nets. In Rinbudhoo, on this particular day, around 20 central Maldives. The 26 atolls of the Maldives are made up fi shers had gone out together. The fi sh were not for selling—all of individual islands, “uncut emeralds in a sea of sapphire” as of it was shared. Done every month, or every other month for a T W Hockley, a visiting British offi cial, wrote in 1935. Its waters part of the year, fi shing days like this fed everyone on the island. are vast, home to 3% of the world’s coral reefs. Fishing and But how much longer would a practice like this last? Most fi sheries are central to the culture and economy here. I was there islands in the Maldives now have a harbour, continuously being for my doctoral research, trying to understand how the ecology developed and expanded so that larger boats can dock there. ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY of these coral reef systems is changing in response to major The dredging that results from this, along with other coastal climatic disturbances like coral-bleaching events. But in the development projects, has an impact on the abundance of fi sh past few years, I have been drawn to the dynamics playing out inside lagoons. The offshore tuna fi shery for skipjack and yel- on land, and to exploring the ties between people and their lowfi n tuna also requires live bait that is fi shed in lagoons or on reefs. Fisam and I were here to conduct a pilot study on the reefs near islands. Some fi shers on other islands told us how values—both monetary and cultural—that people had for they thought that unsustainable levels of bait fi shing, combined different species of fi sh, and whether those were changing. with the effects of dredging, was why they didn’t see frigate tuna Some studies in ecology happen far from humans, but on islands near their islands anymore. “If there are no fi sh for the frigate like these, things are necessarily more intertwined. I was tuna to eat, why would they come here?” one of them asked. coming to appreciate that. An elderly reef fi sher we spoke to told us how, in the past, peo- We walked up to the beach where the dhoani had just pulled ple never fi shed out juvenile bait fi sh inside the lagoon. It was up onto the sand. Dusk was setting in as the catch began to be important to leave them in the water to ensure their population offl oaded. Handfuls of tuna were thrown from the bowels of remained healthy. Now, he said, people fi sh for bait throughout
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 63 POSTSCRIPT SUSTAINABILITY | PANDEMIC
the year, and more intensively than before. While there is some Plague of London in 1665. Holed up at home, besieged by national monitoring of the live bait fi shery, fi shers told us re- uncertainty and fear, reading this novel has given me peatedly how a greater effort was required to catch bait fi sh to- a fresh perspective on the power of fi ction to tell life’s day. This has led to people diving for bait or using bright lights timeless truths. When Defoe began writing the Journal to attract schools to the surface at night—practices that can have around 1709, his main intention was to warn the people serious repercussions in the long run if they’re not managed. of England against the next bout of plague from the What would change if community-wide fi shing days were Continent. Little did he know that his words would ring no longer practised, though? If a bigger harbour brought true even after three centuries. The reality Defoe portrays more boats, more tourists, more revenue, were fi shing days a in his novel seems to have revisited the globe in 2020. small price to pay? To whom did it matter, anyway, and what Refl ecting on it critically might teach us important lessons purpose did it serve? I couldn’t help but think of a colleague’s for the future. research in the Nicobar Islands, where hasty government aid The narrator begins by mentioning that the plague had and rehabilitation programmes after the tsunami of 2004 had returned to Holland in September 1664. As for its origins, he radically altered previously isolated Nicobarese societies, notes, “some said from Italy, others from the Levant ... others affecting the structure of their households, fi sheries manage- said it was brought from Candia; others from Cyprus.” No ment, and resource use. In particular, post-tsunami policies one knew exactly from where it came, but everyone agreed had overlooked Nicobarese traditions of sharing and collective that it had come from “somewhere” outside the country. In ownership, and eroded customary practices by not being the case of the novel coronavirus, too, neither Italy, nor cognisant of the role they played in those communities. Spain, nor the United States (US) has defi nitively traced the Often, the value of a certain practice is diffi cult to quantify and virus’s origin, even though all fi ngers point at China. Any understand until it is no longer performed, and every other virus needs a carrier to move around, and those infected practice or process it’s linked to suddenly becomes more vulner- with it inadvertently spread it across the world. Therefore, able. In our surveys across these islands, Fisam and I noticed just human interaction, whether local or global, is still at the how much things had changed, both on land and in the water, as heart of epidemics and pandemics. islands were reclaimed and expanded. Would Nadia still make Defoe makes interesting observations about the civil and sell her boakiba if she had to buy her tuna? Would people authorities’ inattention to the plague at the beginning of the simply switch to fi shing for another species, if frigate tuna no Just as the poor London outbreak. “The Govern- longer entered these waters? Perhaps, some of these changes bore the brunt ment had a true Account of it, and were inevitable. But tonight, at least, the air was thick with of the London several Counsels were held about the smell of rihakuru, and we would all eat well tomorrow. epidemic in 1665, Ways to prevent its coming over; [Images accompanying this article are available on the EPW website.] the poor are paying but all was kept very private. the heaviest price Hence is was, that this Rumour Shreya Yadav ([email protected]) is a PhD candidate in marine biology at the University died off again, and People began to of Hawai’i. She studies how climate change has an impact on coral reef ecosystems. of the COVID-19 forget it.” Has not history repeated pandemic in India itself in many a government’s ini- in 2020 tial dismissive response to the novel Reading A Journal of coronavirus in 2020? As the pandemic was beginning to spread its tentacles across the world, Italy and Spain carried the Plague Year during on with football matches, the US completely pooh-poohed it, and India delayed a nationwide response prioritising po- the Lockdown litical affairs. Frighteningly, political powers even today— ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY months after the world has gone into lockdown—continue There are striking similarities between the to take a myopic view of impending global catastrophes. Great Plague of London and the COVID-19 The suffering of the poor as recorded by the Journal’s pandemic—in Daniel Defoe’s historical fiction, we narrator is not just heart-wrenching but also painfully see literature’s power to vividly capture human similar to the plight of migrants during the lockdown in India. Describing the thousands of desperate people fl eeing behaviour in times of crisis. London by whatever means they could fi nd, Defoe writes, “Indeed nothing was to be seen but waggons and carts, Sunil Macwan with goods, women, servants, children ... innumerable ecently, rearranging the books at home, I was numbers of men on horseback, some alone, others with thrilled to fi nd Daniel Defoe’s historical novel A servants, and generally speaking, all loaded with baggage R Journal of the Plague Year (1722). It was a serendipitous and fi tted out for travelling, as any one might perceive by discovery of a book that describes the horrors of the Great their appearance.” As the complete lockdown was abruptly
64 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly POSTSCRIPT PANDEMIC | HISTORY
announced and enforced overnight in India, thousands of men, the face of an unnerving, uncertain future reminded me of women, and children also fl ed big cities to save their lives both my own mortality, feebleness, and insignifi cance in the from the invisible virus and inevitable starvation. Just as the grand scheme of things called life. Fortunately, though, it poor bore the brunt of the London epidemic in 1665, the poor also made me aware of the power of fi ction to make that life are paying the heaviest price of the COVID-19 pandemic in more meaningful, instructive, and valuable. India in 2020. As their meagre resources and savings keep Sunil S Macwan ([email protected]) teaches English at St Xavier’s College, depleting, the poor and marginalised are barely surviving. Ahmedabad. Human beings think they have answers to most ques- tions life throws at them—at least, that’s what those who claim to have miraculous, supernatural powers believe. Indian Global Cinema During the London Plague, as Defoe notes, dozens of quacks, healers, and fortune tellers emerged in swarms and the People’s History from the woodwork, conning people out of the little money they had by giving them the false hope of miraculous cure or escape from the plague. With disdain, the narrator notes, Is contemporary Indian cinema doing the job of “With what blind, absurd, and ridiculous Stuff, these recording the people’s history of our times? Oracles of the Devil pleas’d and satisfy’d the People, I really know not; but certain it is, that innumerable Attendants Devashish Makhija crouded about their Doors every Day ... I need not men- tion..., what a horrid Delusion this was, or what it tended ike all storytellers are wont to do, I will start with a to; but there was no Remedy for it, till the Plague it self story. A little over 10 years ago, troubled at not being put an End to it all; and I suppose, clear’d the Town of Lable to fully comprehend the Adivasi–Naxalite–min- most of those Calculators themselves.” In our time, too, ing–development confl ict situation through mere research, I quacks, godmen, and faith-healers initially claimed to save undertook a journey to north Andhra Pradesh and south people from the novel coronavirus, one way or another. Odisha. That was also the time when the Mahatma Gandhi However, within days they shut shop and went cowering for National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) was cover to remain uninfected by the deadly virus against being implemented enthusiastically across rural India. We which their miraculous powers were found shockingly came across many roads being constructed under this ineffective. scheme in the Adivasi areas where there had been none. During the plague, though, most people found some And, often, it was the Adivasis displaced from their own peace and hope in religion. When everything else had lands who were employed as daily wage labourers to build failed, the plague-stricken Londoners turned to god for the very roads they were displaced for. reassurance. According to the Journal’s narrator, thousands The government claimed they were ensuring employment turned to god to fi nd spiritual strength in prayer: “The under this scheme so that those displaced could get a basic People shew’d an extraordinary Zeal in these religious Exer- minimum wage to be able to buy the food and essentials they cises and as the Church Doors were always open, People needed every day. Imagine an Adivasi on their own land, would go in single at all Times … locking themselves into growing their own food, fi lling their own water from the river, separate Pews, would be praying to God with great Fervency weaving their own clothes, needing to buy nothing to sur- and Devotion.” One aspect of India’s collective response to vive. Now imagine that same Adivasi without their land, living the pandemic is increased religiosity. People of all religions far away from it in tin-sheet shanties, having to now buy food have called upon gods for protection, healing, and safety and clothing, and sometimes even water. ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY in many different ways and means these days. Religious In those times, the government’s daily wage for each television serials, online prayers, personal devotion, prayer, labourer was `250. I was lucky to get a peek at one of the and fasting are some noticeable markers of people’s undi- registers that the private contractor in charge of the road lay- luted faith in religion and spirituality as the cure for their ing scheme in one such area had maintained. It had columns material woes. Fiction shows that some human tendencies for name, gender, taluka, village, date, attendance, payment have not changed for centuries. They might not for many and signature. This was the only resource that the local gov- more to come. ernment representatives would use to update the massive Novels such as Defoe’s A Journal of the Plague Year—as well MGNREGA government database online. as Mary Shelley’s The Last Man (1826) and Albert Camus’s La The contractor had left the “payment” column empty as Peste (The Plague, 1947)—are written not only as an account he paid out the wages—a 100 rupee note to each labourer— of the horrors of plagues but also to enthral people with hair- dutifully taking their thumbprints in the signature column. raising stories of human suffering, endurance, and triumph. The remaining `150 simply disappeared into the ether even Reading the Journal in the midst of this pandemic, staring at as I watched. I tried to object. But the labourers were silent.
Economic & Political Weekly EPW june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 65 POSTSCRIPT HISTORY
The poor and deprived, when desperate, do not prioritise Tamhane’s Court (2014), Nagraj Manjule’s Fandry (2013), fairness and justice over a square meal. Sanal Sasidharan’s Sexy Durga (2017), and Anusha Rizvi’s Did the government even send `250 per labourer? Or did the Peepli Live (2010) come to mind. These fi lms place front and entities that come in between the government and the labourer centre those Indians living on the margins of the informal and whisk it away? Every time someone questioned the government illegal in a country slowly crumbling on the grounds of about the effectiveness of MGNREGA, its records showed that caste (Court and Fandry), gender (Sexy Durga), and urban each labourer was paid the full amount. The “system,” therefore, bias (Peepli Live). has proof. It has evidence. It has witness. Because it has We are at a point in modern history where all we have precise and undeniable documentation. around us is the state’s narrative and what it wants us to But there is no record of the fact that those labourers believe. More than ever before, we need our art, our stories, received only `100 each. Where does one record that? How and mostly our cinema, to aggressively seek out, nurture, will that be testifi ed for? Who will bear witness for All traces of shape, and exhibit the people’s narratives to our- it? Because when one turns to the judiciary to fi ght the people’s selves and the world. Major international fi lm for something, only evidence and proof matter. perspective can festivals seek and reward the fi lms that do this. In sum, the state’s perspective has it all. The be whitewashed There is a smell of authenticity and uniqueness to people’s perspective has none. A system that does from textbooks and our cinema when it turns its lens fi ercely on local not allow for the people to be heard and repre- history books and truths. And the discerning global viewer catches sented and spoken for is a system that must museums and even it and cherishes it. But it’s becoming increasingly be rejected, questioned, and overhauled. The YouTube, if a regime diffi cult to fi nd any sort of resources to keep seeking records that such a system keeps must be rejected with contrary ideas and presenting such stories in a medium that as well because there is no counter to it. And with comes to power needs money to sustain it. Because money, by its no formal counter-perspective available, the only very nature, is drawn towards authority and informal way to record it, is in “stories.” power, both of which have always been contrarian to the The only thing that survives intact and unblemished once people’s perspective of things. More so, today. a generation dies is the art that was created in their time. All I leave us with some words from Howard Zinn, who traces of the people’s perspective can be whitewashed from implanted the idea of a people’s perspective in my own work. textbooks and history books and museums, and even You- A poem can inspire a movement. A pamphlet can spark a revolution. Tube, if a regime with contrary ideas comes to power. But the Civil disobedience can arouse people … when we organize with one another, when we get involved, when we stand up and speak out stories that represent it can remain, especially if they are together, we can create a power no government can suppress. encoded in a form that has some permanence. Until the 20th If politicians, corporate executives, and owners of press and television century, literature wielded this power. But increasingly, over can dominate our ideas, they will be secure in their power. They will the past 100 years, it has been cinema that has done—and not need soldiers patrolling the streets. We will control ourselves. can continue to do—the needful, whenever called upon. Devashish Makhija ([email protected]) is a Mumbai-based writer and If you wanted to see the partition of India today through film-maker who has made the short films Agli Baar (2015) and Taandav (2016), and the a humanistic—and not simply a political, geographical or feature length films Oonga (2013), Ajji (2017) and Bhonsle (2018). demographic—lens, what would you reach for? Literature. And within literature, most of us would reach for Saadat LAST LINES Hasan Manto’s stories. Manto was not documenting fact. He was not a government employee, nor was he a journalist. He was not an anthropologist. He was not of any political party. He wrote fi ction. But he focused unfl inchingly on the people’s ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY perspective—that other perspective, which no formal entity ever documents. His stories move people; they start conversations. Today, it is cinema that can do that job—if it wishes to, that is. In the parallel cinema movement of the late 1970s and 1980s, this was done with effi ciency and passion by Shyam Benegal, Govind Nihalani, Saeed Mirza, Adoor Gopalakrishnan, Mrinal Sen, Buddhadeb Dasgupta, M S Sathyu, and so many others. Unfortunately, this enterprise nearly disappeared by the 1990s—perhaps liberalisation washed it all away in the sudden fl ash fl ood of global entertainment. If it wants, contemporary Indian global cinema can record, for posterity, a people’s history of today’s times. But, unlike 40 years ago, those doing this are too few now. Chaitanya
66 june 13, 2020 vol lV no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY Published on Saturday, June 13, 2020 Regd No MCW-238/2018-20 WPP Licence No MR/Tech/WPP-197/West/2018-20. Licensed to post without prepayment. Posted at Patrika Channel Sorting Office, Mumbai-1 on every Tuesday-Wednesday. Regd. with the RNI – No 14089/66 ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY
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