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IOI Properties Group Berhad Initiate with NEUTRAL Largest Listed Property Developer in Malaysia Target Price (TP): RM2.65

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IOI Properties Group Berhad Initiate with NEUTRAL Largest Listed Property Developer in Malaysia Target Price (TP): RM2.65 04 August 2016 | Initiate Coverage IOI Properties Group Berhad Initiate with NEUTRAL Largest listed property developer in Malaysia Target Price (TP): RM2.65 INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS • Largest listed property developer in Malaysia • Potential beneficiary of MRT 2 and High Speed Rail RETURN STATS • Sustainable income from investment properties Price (3 Aug 2016) RM2.40 • Estimating FY16/FY17 property sales of RM1.8b/RM2.3b Target Price RM2.65 • Outlook moderated by subdued Singapore property market Expected Share Price • Initiate with Neutral and TP of RM2.65 +10.4% Return Largest listed property developer in Malaysia. IOI Properties Expected Dividend Yield +2.5% Group Berhad (IOIPG) is the largest listed property developer in Malaysia by market capitalisation. Note that its market cap of RM10.5b is Expected Total Return +12.9% higher than SPSETIA’s RM8.0b (refer Figure 1 in Page 2). Potential beneficiary of MRT 2 and High Speed Rail. IOIPG is a STOCK INFO potential beneficiary of MRT2 project as one of MRT2 stations will be located in its township project - 16 Sierra. Meanwhile, IOIPG should also KLCI 1,648.50 benefit from the proposed Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High Speed Rail Bursa / Bloomberg 5249/IOIPG MK (HSR) as one of the eight stations will be located in Ayer Keroh where IOIPG owns 1,338 acres of landbank. Board / Sector Main/Properties Sustainable income from investment properties. IOIPG derives Syariah Compliant Yes recurring income from investment properties by leasing out office building and retail space. Income from investment properties contributed Issued shares (mil) 4,411.22 to 14% to total operating profit in FY15. IOIPG is looking to increase contribution from this division to >20% in future. Meanwhile, we Par Value (RM) 1.00 understand that IOIPG may look to list its investment properties as Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). Market cap. (RM’m) 10,586.92 Estimating FY16/FY17 property sales of RM1.8b/RM2.3b. We Price over NA 0.69 believe IOIPG is on track to hit its sales target of RM1.8b for FY16, as its property launches in China received strong take up rate. For FY17, 52-wk price Range RM1.79-RM2.52 IOIPG is targeting to increase its property sales to RM2.3b supported by oversea projects in China and Singapore. Earnings wise, we estimate Beta (against KLCI) 1.01 core net profit growth of 16%yoy to RM666m in FY16. 3-mth Avg Daily Vol 2.18m Exposure to subdued Singapore property market. IOIPG currently has five property projects in Singapore. We expect IOIPG’s property 3-mth Avg Daily Value RM5.15m sales in Singapore to be slow due to the challenging property market. Major Shareholders Initiate with Neutral and TP of RM2.65. We initiate coverage on IOIPG with a Neutral recommendation and target price of RM2.65 based Vertical Capacity Sdn Bhd 50.88% on 40% discount to fully-diluted RNAV. While we like the company as a successful township developer with sustainable income from investment Summervest Sdn Bhd 8.48% properties, its exposure to the slowing property market in Singapore would partially hurt its outlook. EPF 5.82% MIDF RESEARCH is a unit of MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK Kindly refer to the last page of this publication for important disclosures MIDF RESEARCH Thursday, 04 August 2016 Investment Statistics FYE June (RM m) 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E Revenue 1,263 1,454 1,906 2,641 2,768 EBIT 637 1,069 1,006 857 909 PBT 741 1,120 1,130 907 981 Net Income 555 890 891 666 721 Core Net Income 516 387 574 666 721 EPS (sen) 25.6 31.9 25.8 15.1 16.3 Core EPS (sen) 23.9 13.9 16.7 15.1 16.3 Net DPS (sen) 0.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 6.5 Net Div Yield 0.0% 3.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% Core PER 10.1 17.3 14.4 15.9 14.7 NTA/share 2.6 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.7 P/NTA 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 Core ROE 9.3% 3.5% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% Core ROA 6.1% 2.6% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% Source: MIDF Research 1. Investment Highlights Largest listed property developer in Malaysia. IOI Properties Group Berhad (IOIPG) is the largest listed property developer in Malaysia by market capitalisation. Total landbank of IOIPG in Malaysia is more than 10k acres, located in Johor (63%), Malacca (13%), Klang Valley (13%), and Negeri Sembilan (11%). Meanwhile, total lands for development in Singapore and China are 26 acres and 29 acres respectively. Figure 1: Market Capitalisation* Source: Bloomberg, MIDF Research *As of 26 July 2016 2 MIDF RESEARCH Thursday, 04 August 2016 Continuing its success as a township developer. IOIPG has strong reputation as a suburban townships developer by developing Bandar Puchong Jaya in 1990 and Bandar Puteri Puchong in 1999. Meanwhile, IOIPG emulated its successful formula of building townships with the launch of township projects in Johor, Puchong South, Bangi, and Bahau Negeri Sembilan. Besides, IOIPG extends the development of IOI Resort City in Putrajaya following the acquisition of 400 acres of land in January 2016. Sustainable income from investment properties. In addition to property development business which contributed 81% to FY15 total operating profit, IOIPG also derives recurring income from investment properties by leasing out properties which comprise mainly office building in Putrajaya and retail space. Notable assets under retail space include IOI Mall in Puchong and IOI City Mall in Putrajaya. Income from investment properties contributed to 14% of total operating profit in FY15 while IOIPG is looking to increase contribution from the division to >20% in future. Meanwhile, we understand that IOIPG may look to list its investment properties as Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) in future upon the investment properties reaching ideal size for listing. Figure 2: Operating profit breakdown by segment Source: Company, MIDF Research Potential beneficiary of MRT 2 and High Speed Rail. IOIPG is a potential beneficiary of the Klang Valley Mass Rapid Transit 2 (KVMRT2) project which stretches from Sungai Buloh to Putrajaya as one of the KVMRT2 stations will be located in 16 Sierra. Note that 16 Sierra, one of IOIPG’s township projects, is located on 535-acre of land in south Puchong. The proposed MRT station in 16 Sierra would improve connectivity of the township and hence should support the total GDV of the project in future. Meanwhile, IOIPG should also benefit from the proposed Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High Speed Rail (HSR) as one of its eight stations will be located in Ayer Keroh where IOIPG owns 1,338 acres of landbank. 3 MIDF RESEARCH Thursday, 04 August 2016 Figure 3: Proposed station location of KVMRT2 Source: MRT Corp Estimating FY16/FY17 property sales of Figure 4: FY15 property sales breakdown by region RM1.8b/RM2.3b. IOIPG achieved total property sales of RM1.78b in FY15, a 9.6%yoy decline from total property sales of RM1.97b in FY14. The drop in property sales was mainly attributed to lower property sales from Johor and China projects. Meanwhile, we believe IOIPG is on track to hit its sales target of RM1.8b for FY16 as its property launches in IOI Palm City, Xiamen China in 4QFY16 has received strong take up rate. We gather that demand and prices of properties in Xiamen is expected to remain stable as Xiamen is one of the high growth cities in China. Looking ahead, IOIPG is targeting to increase its property sales to RM2.3b in FY17 and expecting its oversea projects in China and Singapore to contribute 40% to total property sales. Source: Company, MIDF Research Exposure to subdued Singapore property market. IOIPG’s exposure to Singapore property market is via five property projects, namely (i) Seascape @ Sentosa Cove, (ii) Cape Royale @ Sentosa Cove, (iii) Cityscape @ Farrer Park, (iv) South Beach, and (v) The Trilinq @ Jalan Lempeng. The aggregate GDV for projects in Singapore is massive at SGD 5b as most of the projects comprise high-end condominiums. However, we expect property sales to be slow going forward considering the challenging property market in Singapore. Note that Singapore property market is subdued whereby home prices have dropped for 11 consecutive quarters in June as its government is reluctant to lift property tightening measures. As such, we expect IOIPG’s property sales from Singapore projects to be unexciting in the foreseeable future. 4 MIDF RESEARCH Thursday, 04 August 2016 Figure 5: Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) private residential property price index Source: URA, MIDF Research 2. Financial Review/Outlook Positive earnings growth. Revenue of IOIPG was on an uptrend since FY13, recording a 2-year CAGR of 23%. The growing revenue was mainly due to the ballooning revenue contribution from property development division. Meanwhile, core net income of IOIPG recorded a 2-year CAGR of 5.5% since FY13. Moreover, IOIPG registered core net earnings growth of 48% in FY15 as earnings from property development division was underpinned by higher property sales from both local and oversea projects while property investment division was supported by rental contribution from IOI City Mall that commenced operations in November 2014. Figure 6: Revenue and core net profit Positive earnings outlook. Looking ahead, we are estimating IOIPG core net profit to grow at 16%yoy to RM666m in FY16. The forward growth is predicated on higher earnings from property development division which would be underpinned by unbilled sales of RM1.5b and higher property sales from both local and oversea projects.
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