Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Š Phone 845.575.5050 Š Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu

New York: Presidential Campaign 2004

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Tuesday, January 13, 2004

Contact: Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho Marist College 845.575.5050

This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:

New York State Democrats Assess the Field of Democratic Candidates • Democratic Presidential Primary 2004: 26% of New York State Democrats are undecided in their preference for their party’s presidential nominee. Former Governor has the support of 26% of the state’s registered Democrats and leads each of his rivals by more than 2:1. Among the remaining candidates, only Senator Joseph Lieberman and retired have double-digit support.

Question Wording: If the Democratic presidential primary in New York were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Registered January October September April December Democrats 2004 2003 2003 2003 2002 Howard Dean 26% 18% 13% 4% 1% Joseph Lieberman 12% 16% 23% 21% 23% Wesley Clark 10% 14% 6% n.a. n.a. 8% 5% 10% 10% 14% 6% 8% 8% 10% 20% Richard Gephardt 6% 10% 8% 8% 11% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% n.a. 2% 2% 1% 2% n.a. Other n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9% Undecided 26% 23% 23% 35% 19%

• Intensity of Support: Only 34% of New York State Democrats are strongly committed to a candidate for their party’s nomination for president. 33% say they somewhat support their choice, and 30% indicate they might vote differently on primary day.

Question Wording: Would you say you strongly support (candidate), somewhat support him/her, or do you think you might vote differently on primary day?

Strongly Somewhat Might Vote Registered Democrats Support Support Differently Unsure January 2004 34% 33% 30% 3% Howard Dean 40% 30% 27% 3% Joseph Lieberman 26% 44% 24% 6% Wesley Clark 36% 48% 16% 0% October 2003 30% 34% 35% 1% September 2003 26% 33% 39% 2%

• Dean vs. Not Dean: In head-to-head hypothetical match-ups, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean leads his opponents in the New York State Democratic presidential primary.

Question Wording: If the Democratic presidential primary in New York were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are just:

Registered Voters Howard Dean John Kerry Unsure January 2004 45% 28% 27%

Registered Voters Howard Dean Richard Gephardt Unsure January 2004 48% 28% 24%

Registered Voters Howard Dean Joseph Lieberman Unsure January 2004 51% 33% 16%

Registered Voters Howard Dean Wesley Clark Unsure January 2004 56% 21% 23%

Registered Voters Howard Dean John Edwards Unsure January 2004 58% 19% 23%

Registered Voters Howard Dean Al Sharpton Unsure January 2004 72% 18% 10%

Page 2 of 4 What Counts for New York Democrats • The Candidate Most Likely To… New York State registered Democrats want a candidate that can beat President George Bush in November, is closer to them on the issues, or has values like their own.

Question Wording: Which one of the following is most important to you in deciding whom to support for the Democratic presidential nomination? A candidate who:

Registered Democrats January 2004 Can beat Bush in November 22% Is closer to you on the issues 21% Has values like your own 19% Stands up for what they believe in 16% Has the experience to be president 11% Is not a typical politician 5% Unsure 6%

• The War: A majority of New York State Democrats is more likely to support a candidate who opposed the U.S. war in Iraq. Supporters of Howard Dean are most likely to vote for a candidate who opposed the U.S. going to war in Iraq.

Question Wording: Are you more likely to vote for a candidate who supported the U.S. going to war with Iraq or are you more likely to vote for a candidate who opposed the U.S. going to war with Iraq?

Candidate Candidate Registered Democrats Supported War Opposed War Unsure January 2004 35% 56% 9% Howard Dean 27% 67% 6% Joseph Lieberman 51% 38% 11% Wesley Clark 38% 57% 5%

President Bush and New York State Voters • Approval Rating: President George Bush’s approval rating is currently 52% among New York State's registered voters. This is an increase since a similar poll conducted last September. 47% do not rate his job performance positively.

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Question Wording: Would you rate the job President George Bush is doing in office as excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Excellent/ Unsure/ Registered Voters Good Excellent Good Fair Poor DK January 2004 52% 22% 30% 19% 28% 1% September 2003 44% 17% 27% 22% 33% 1% April 2003 58% 29% 29% 19% 22% 1% December 2002 57% 24% 33% 23% 19% 1% April 2002 72% 33% 39% 17% 10% 1% December 2001 79% 43% 36% 15% 5% 1% April 2001 40% 11% 29% 30% 23% 7%

• Is New York in Play for President Bush in 2004? 34% of New York State voters definitely plan to vote for George Bush for president in 2004 and 36% definitely plan to vote against him. 30% are uncommitted.

Question Wording: Do you definitely plan to vote for George Bush for re- election as president in 2004 or do you definitely plan to vote against him?

Registered Voters Vote For Vote Against Depends/Unsure January 2004 34% 36% 30% September 2003 32% 48% 20%

Nature of the Sample: 617 NYS Registered Voters and 544 NYS Registered Democrats The survey of 617 registered voters was conducted January 6th and 7th, 2004. Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections. Results for the Democratic primaries are based on a sample of 544 New York State registered Democrats that includes an over-sample that was conducted from January 6th through 8th, 2004. Results are statistically significant at ±4% for registered voters and ±4.5% for Democrats. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.

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