PROPERTY INSIGHTS India Quarter 3, 2017

INDIA REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW – YTD 2017*

Introduction

The Indian residential real estate sector has from launching and marketing new projects. remained sluggish with unsold inventory levels Developers are making intrinsic changes to their remaining high and declining sales in key markets in business structure, operations and marketing the last couple of years. The housing market in strategies to comply with RERA norms. Until the Mumbai has been further adversely impacted by the second quarter this year, buyer sentiments had implementation of demonetization in the last quarter dampened and enquiries and walk-ins had dropped to of 2016, and the implementation of the Real Estate a large extent as they adopted a wait-and-watch mode (Regulation & Development) Act (RERA) and Goods & to evaluate the impact of these reforms on prices. Services Tax (GST) this year has deterred developers Real Estate (Regulation & Development) Act (RERA)

RERA is touted to be a significant regulatory measure to bring in greater transparency and accountability in the real estate sector. It endeavours to protect the rights of consumers through its regulations, which penalizes errant developers through the establishment of a Real Estate Regulatory Authority in each state.

It clearly defines liabilities and responsibilities of developers while providing an effective grievance redressal mechanism to the buyer. It seeks to provide a fair market for developers, real estate intermediaries and buyers to transact in the real estate market.

26 states and union territories have notified the rules under the Act, only 6 states have established their respective permanent Real Estate Regulatory Authority. North-eastern states, Goa and West Bengal are yet to notify the rules.

Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, etc have notified RERA rules largely in conformity with the Central rules. Few states have taken greater flexibility in interpreting and defining their state rules, especially with respect to ‘ongoing projects,’ obligation of developer to rectify structural defects, deposit of 70% sale proceeds, etc

Certain provisions have been exhaustively defined in the state rules, for instance, ‘co-promoter,’ ‘land and construction costs;’ under Maharashtra state rules, In terms of registration of projects, Maharashtra leads with over 13,000 registered projects under the new law. Goods & Services Tax (GST)

GST is expected to bring in a lot of transparency in the sector and minimize unscrupulous transactions and multiple taxes by replacing them by a single tax regime.

There are mixed views in the market in terms of the impact of RERA and GST on real estate prices.

While under-construction projects will attract a net tax rate of 12%, developers are liable to pass on the input tax credit to the end consumers as the Central Government has also introduced specific provisions on anti- profiteering. The net impact on prices will depend upon the stage of construction and price of the land.

However, prices are largely expected to remain stable in the next few quarters as developers may absorb any increases due to the tax as they want to focus on clearing their unsold inventory. Economic Overview

GDP growth rate & Repo Rate BSE Sensex Vs Realty Index

12.00% 35000

10.00% 30000 25000 8.00% 20000 6.00% 15000 4.00% 10000 2.00% 5000

0.00% 0 7 7 17 17 17 ' ' ' 00 008 009 010 011 012 013 014 015 016 00 008 009 010 011 012 013 014 015 016 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Q2 Q3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Q3

GDP Growth Repo rate Sensex Realty

FDI Equity Inflow in Construction Development Policy Updates (in INR crores)

GDP slowed down to 5.7% during April-June 7,508 quarter. GDP growth rate estimates for 2017-18 have been reduced to 6.5-6.7% 4,652

RBI kept policy rate unchanged, with Repo Rate at 6% due to concerns on increased inflation. 1,616 727 703 FDI in construction development surpassed the 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 cumulative inflows witnessed in 2015-16 and 2016-17

in the first quarter of 2017-18 itself. 2017-18 data is till June 2017

*1st January to 30th September Source: World Bank, RBI, BSE, DIPP Real Estate Market Snapshot

Residential

33% 53% -2% to 3% Decrease in new unit Share of mid segment Change in capital launches during YTD in overall launches values 2017

Office

7% 38% 2% to 4% Decline in net Slowdown in new Increase in average absorption during completions during rents YTD 2017 YTD 2017

Retail

1.95 msf F&B, 0% to 2% New mall supply Apparels Increase in mall in YTD 2017 Most active in leasing rents Indian Residential Sector Overview

Affordable Segment Mid Segment

Select large project launches, Share decreased to 53% in YTD 2017 from mainly in Mumbai, Pune and Ahmedabad 68% in YTD 2016

High-end Segment Luxury Segment

Launches more than halved in YTD 2017 Launches mainly in Bengaluru and Pune New Launches in YTD 2017 (In Units)

145 30

254 100 181 178 788 164 1,500

1,278 8,052 2,797 4,463

1,961 7,110 3,400

2,532 10,573 2,110 3,752 643 1,662 923

Ahmedabad Bengaluru Chennai Delhi - NCR Hyderabad Mumbai Pune

Affordable Mid High-end Luxury

Key Trends

Unit launches dropped by 33% on a y-o-y basis across the top 71 cities (Delhi-NCR, Bengaluru, Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, Pune, and Ahmedabad) during the first 9 months of 2017.

It is interesting to note that launches have seen a steady quarter–on–quarter (q-o-q) decline for the last 5- 6 quarters, corresponding with the announcement of RERA in March last year and the demonetization exercise in November 2016. Mumbai (36%), Bengaluru (15%), Pune (15%) and Delhi-NCR (12%) accounted for majority of the unit launches during YTD 2017.

Affordable segment has witnessed a significant growth in 2017. While it grew by 32% on a y-o-y basis, its share in the overall launches increased to 41% in YTD 2017 from 21% during YTD 2016.

In most of the cities, developers are directing their marketing efforts to push the sales of completed units as they are outside the purview of both RERA and GST.

Buyer sentiments have already begun to improve and is reflected in terms of increase in enquiries. This is expected to continue in the upcoming festive period and could translate into higher sales. Developers are likely to be more aggressive in offering attractive schemes, discounts, etc to further attract genuine home-buyers.

1Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Chennai, Delhi-NCR, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Pune . Index

Mumbai ...... 1

Delhi-NCR ...... 4

Bengaluru ...... 7 Mumbai Residential Overview

Overall unit launches marginally increased by 1% Rationalization of unit launches during YTD 2017 from the same period last year, at about 19,400 units, led by a surge in the affordable Share of launches in price segments segment. A few large affordable housing projects 1% 1% were launched in Kalyan/Dombivli and Eastern 4% 10% 17% 10% suburbs accounting for 43% of total unit launches. 42%

The affordable segment grew at a multiple of 4 55% 67% 74% during YTD 2017 on a y-o-y basis with its share increasing to 54% of total unit launches in YTD 2017 54% from 13% in YTD 2016. 28% 14% 22%

Post the implementation of RERA and GST, 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017 developers focused on marketing ready-to-move < INR 7,500 INR 7,500 - 25,000 INR 25,000 - 40,000 > INR 40,000 inventory. They offered higher discounts in

completed projects and doled out schemes to Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research absorb incremental tax cost, if any, in case of For details on project launches, refer Annexure; Values psf ongoing projects.

Average Capital Values – High-End (INR ‘000/sf)

Location 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q 2017

South 48.0 - 75.0 48.0 - 75.0 48.0 - 75.0 48.0 - 75.0 48.0 - 75.0

South Central 46.0 - 83.0 46.0 - 83.0 46.0 - 83.0 46.0 - 83.0 46.0 - 83.0 Central 27.0 - 65.0 27.0 - 65.0 27.0 - 65.0 27.0 - 65.0 27.0 - 65.0

North 28.0 - 48.0 28.0 - 50.0 28.0 - 50.0 28.0 - 50.0 28.0 - 50.0

Far North 12.5 - 18.0 12.5 - 20.0 12.5 - 20.0 12.5 - 20.0 12.5 - 20.0

North East 15.0 - 22.0 15.0 - 22.0 15.0 - 24.0 15.0 - 24.0 15.0 - 24.0

Average Capital Values – Mid Segment (INR '000/sf)

Location 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q 2017

South 40.0 - 50.0 40.0 - 50.0 40.0 - 50.0 40.0 - 50.0 40.0 - 50.0

South Central 45.0 - 58.0 45.0 - 58.0 45.0 - 58.0 45.0 - 58.0 45.0 - 58.0 Central 23.0 - 40.0 23.0 - 40.0 23.0 - 45.0 23.0 - 45.0 23.0 - 45.0

North 20.0 - 30.0 20.0 - 30.0 20.0 - 30.0 20.0 - 30.0 20.0 - 30.0

Far North 10.0 - 14.0 10.0 - 14.0 10.0 - 16.0 10.0 - 16.0 10.0 - 16.0

North East 8.5 - 12.5 9.0 - 13.0 10.0 - 14.0 10.0 - 14.0 10.0 - 14.0

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

1 Major Launches

Project Name Location No. of units Launch Price (INR per sf)

Chembur Central Chembur 5,800 22,900*

Lodha Palava City Dombivli 2,000 5,500

Codename Big Boom Mulund (West) 308 19,500*

Aurum Q Residence Ghansoli 720 26,300*

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research *on carpet area

Peripheral locations like Thane (including witnessed project completions include Wadala, Ghodbunder Road), Mira Road and Navi Mumbai Dadar and Andheri. At the same time, buyers are continued to witness notable construction activity keen on buying existing ready inventory as they are during YTD 2017. Eastern and Western suburban outside the purview of RERA and Goods & Services locations like Chembur, Kanjurmarg, Andheri, Tax (GST). Goregaon, Malad, Kandivali, etc., continue to have The quoted capital values softened by 2% in South strong under-construction pipeline. The Bombay High central Mumbai on the back of slower sales and higher Court’s embargo on new construction projects, supply, but increased by 2% in Eastern suburbs in Q1 excluding redevelopment and slum rehabilitation 2017 due to favourable response for select projects in schemes, after the municipal corporation failed to Kanjurmarg and Vikhroli. Thereafter, capital and comply with its orders related to dumping grounds rental values have largely remained range-bound complying with pollution norms, has impacted the across all the submarkets in both mid and high-end construction of new projects within the city. During segments. During 2017, developers realigned sales YTD 2017, select large projects were completed strategy to offer higher discounts, freebies and across locations such as Goregaon, Parel within the subvention schemes mainly in case of finished city limits and Ghodbunder Road, Mumbra and inventory across most of the submarkets in the city. Badlapur in Thane submarket. Other locations which

Outlook

Residential

Launches Price Buyer sentiment

Launches will be low in the upcoming festive quarter as developers wait for sales to pick up and focus on project completions.

Buyer sentiments are likely to improve as they observe the focus on project completions and the positive impact of RERA and GST on the sector.

Developers will roll out aggressive marketing schemes and packages to attract fence sitters as homebuyers prefer effecting a purchase on auspicious occasions.

2 Office

Absorption Vacancy Rentals

Nearly 2.5 msf of incremental Grade A office supply expected in Q4 2017.

Leasing is expected to gain momentum in the upcoming quarter on the back of absorption of pre-committed spaces in the Secondary Business District (SBD) of Bandra-Kurla Complex and Thane–Belapur Road.

Rentals to remain stable across most of the submarkets. However, SBD and Lower Parel are steadily tilting towards landlords, given limited supply and steady demand.

Retail

Leasing Vacancy Rentals

Nearly 2.5 msf of incremental Grade A office supply expected in Q4 2017.

Rentals to remain stable across most of the submarkets. However, SBD and Lower Parel are steadily tilting towards landlords, given limited supply and steady demand.

3 Delhi-NCR Residential Overview

At around 6,500 units, new launches during the Rationalization of unit launches first three quarters of 2017 noted a 30% decline Share of launches in price segments from the corresponding period in 2016. This has

been the lowest level in the past 5 years, reflecting a 8% 3% 10% 23% muted sentiment in the NCR.

69% 54% Gurugram witnessed a little higher activity than 73% 52% Noida with 54% of the new unit launches during YTD 2017. Golf Course Extension Road and new sectors in 36% 28% 25% Gurugram recorded project launches. Greater Noida 19% West and Noida Expressway saw majority of the new 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017 launches in Noida.

< INR 3,500 INR 3,501 - 8,000 INR 8,001 - 20,000 > INR 20,000 Mid segment, constituted 52% of the total launches across all submarkets during YTD 2017. Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research For details on project launches, refer Annexure; Values psf

Average Capital Values – High-End Segment (INR '000/sf)

Location 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q 2017

South-West 45.0 – 60.0 42.5 – 56.0 40.4 – 53.2 38.0 – 53.0 35.0 – 53.0

South-East 25.0 - 40.0 25.0 - 38.0 24.5 – 37.2 24.0 - 35.0 24.0 - 35.0 South-Central 27.0 - 50.0 27.0 - 46.0 25.6 – 43.7 25.7 - 43.0 25.0 - 43.0

Central 60.0 - 90.0 60.0 - 90.0 60.0 - 90.0 60.0 - 90.0 60.0 - 90.0

Gurugram High-End 11.0 – 17.0 11.0 – 16.5 11.0 – 16.5 11.0 – 16.5 10.8 – 16.2

Noida 7.0 - 8.5 7.5 – 9.0 7.5 – 9.0 7.5 – 9.0 7.0 – 9.0

Average Capital Values – Mid Segment (INR '000/sf)

Location 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q 2017

South-East 25.0 – 30.0 22.0 - 27.0 20.9 – 25.6 20.9 – 25.7 20.0 – 25.0

South-Central 25.0 – 35.0 25.0 – 35.0 23.8 – 33.3 23.8 – 33.3 23.8 – 33.3 Gurugram 7.5 - 11.5 8.0 – 10.0 8.0 - 10.0 8.0 - 10.0 7.5 - 10.0

Noida 5.0 – 6.0 5.0 – 6.5 5.0 – 6.5 4.5 - 6.5 4.2 - 6.5

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

4 Major Launches

Project Name Location No. of units Launch Price (INR per sf)

Supertech Belfair Sector 79, Gurugram 1,100 3,990 to 5,300

GLS Avenue 51 Sector 92, Gurugram 912 4,000

Picturesque Reprives Sector 152, Noida 800 4,500

ROF Ananda Sector 95, Gurugram 750 4,000

Ace Divino Greater Noida West 520 3,900

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

The average capital values declined by 1-3% y-o-y stalled projects. These measures are expected to across all submarkets in the city at the end of augur well in restoring buyers’ confidence in the Q3 2017. This decline in prices can be attributed to market while ensuring the delivery of delayed unforeseen market events like demonetization projects. during the comparison period, which resulted in Project completions during the past few quarters slowing down the sales further. Rental values were concentrated in micro-markets including maintained status quo due to steady demand and Dwarka Expressway, and a few sectors in New adequate inventory in the market. Gurugram. Delhi also observed a key project Developers continued to maintain a high thrust completion by a leading real estate developer in the on off-loading their completed but unsold inventory west Delhi region. Micro-markets like Greater Noida through aggressive marketing, especially as the West and Noida Expressway in Noida and Golf under-construction stock is subject to GST. In an Course Extension and New Gurugram sectors in interesting development, industry associations such Gurugram are seeing high construction activity as CREDAI are coming forward in bringing together resulting in a number of project completions in developers and investors with an aim to revive upcoming quarters.

Outlook Residential

Launches Price Buyer sentiment

New unit launches to remain subdued in the upcoming quarter on account of high unsold inventory.

There is expectation of pick-up in sales during the festive period in the coming quarter.

However, capital prices are likely to remain range-bound across submarkets.

5 Office

Absorption Vacancy Rentals

New office supply of nearly 1.0 msf expected to be added in the non-CBD market of Gurugram in Q4 2017, almost 80% of the total supply planned for the quarter in the entire NCR.

Leasing is likely to remain robust in the upcoming quarter.

Rentals expected to remain largely similar in the upcoming quarter owing to stable demand by occupiers.

Retail

Leasing Vacancy Rentals

Leasing to remain stable and is expected to be driven by apparels, lifestyle and F&B brands in Q4 2017.

Rentals across malls and main streets are expected to remain largely stable in Q4 2017 due to adequate space availability and steady demand.

6 Bengaluru Residential Overview

Launches at about 8,000 units in YTD 2017, Rationalization of unit launches dipped by almost 50% from the corresponding period last year. Share of launches in price segments 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 11% 6% About 50% of the overall unit launches this year 19% were witnessed in the North submarket followed by the East, which contributed to about one-fifth of the 37% 77% 86% launches. 80%

Mid segment continues to dominate the unit 43% 17% launches with its share increasing to 86% of overall 9% 11% unit launches during YTD 2017 from 77% in YTD 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017 2016. < INR 2800 INR 2800 - 8000 INR 8000 - 20000 > INR 20000

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research For details on project launches, refer Annexure; Values psf

Average Capital Values – Mid-End (INR '000/sf)

Location 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q 2017

Central 9.0 - 12.0 9.0 - 12.0 9.5 - 12.0 10.0 – 12.5 10.0 – 12.5

East 4.0 – 5.5 4.0 – 5.5 4.3 – 5.7 4.3 - 6.0 4.3 - 6.0 South East 4.5 – 5.85 4.5 – 6.0 4.3 – 6.3 4.5 – 6.75 4.5 – 6.75

South 6.0 – 9.0 6.0 – 9.0 7.0 – 10.0 7.0 – 10.0 7.0 – 10.0

North 3.5 – 5.5 3.95 – 5.5 3.95 – 5.5 4.5 – 6.5 4.5 – 6.5

South West 4.5 – 6.5 4.5 – 6.5 4.5 – 6.5 5.0 – 7.0 5.0 – 7.0

Off Central I 7.0 – 10.0 7.0 – 10.0 7.0 – 10.0 7.0 – 11.0 7.0 – 11.0

Off Central II 6.0 – 8.0 6.5 – 8.5 6.5 – 8.5 6.5 – 8.5 6.5 – 8.5

North West 5.5 – 6.5 6.0 – 6.75 6.0 – 6.8 6.5 – 7.5 6.5 – 7.5

Average Capital Values – High-End Segment (INR '000/sf)

Location 2013 2014 2015 2016 3Q 2017

Central 18.0 - 21.0 18.0 - 21.0 18.0 - 21.0 18.0 - 21.0 18.0 - 21.0

South 6.75 – 10.25 7.0 – 10.25 7.0 – 10.5 7.5 – 11.5 7.5 – 11.5 Off Central 8.0 - 11.0 8.0 - 11.0 8.0 - 11.0 8.5 - 12.0 8.5 - 12.0

East 6.5 - 10.0 6.5 - 10.0 6.5 - 10.0 6.5 - 10.0 6.5 - 10.0 North 7.0 - 9.5 7.0 - 9.8 7.0 - 11.0 7.5 - 11.5 7.5 - 11.5 Central 18.0 - 21.0 18.0 - 21.0 18.0 - 21.0 18.0 - 21.0 18.0 - 21.0

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

7 Major Launches

Project Name Location No. of units Launch Price (INR per sf)

Salarpuria Sattva Park Cubix Devanahalli 1,620 3,990

Sumadhura Eden Garden Whitefield 1,215 3,599

GM Infinite Elegance Tower Electronic City 979 2,950

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

The North submarket of Bengaluru continued to 40% of completed projects this year followed by witness notable construction activity during the the East (25%) and North (17%) submarkets. quarter 26% of the under-construction projects are The capital values in the high-end segment in this submarket in locations like Thannisandra dipped across most of the submarkets - South (8%), Road, Hebbal, Yelahanka, etc. North is closely East (8%) and North (2%) on a y-o-y basis as followed by East, which saw 22% of the total under- developers were compelled to reduce the average construction projects in the city. Locations like base price on the back of prolonged slowdown and Whitefield and Old Madras Road continue to have a pressure of mounting inventory. Mid segment strong under-construction pipeline. capital values also saw a drop in the submarkets of In 2017, a large project each was completed in East (3%) and Off Central II (1%) on the back of Electronic City and Attebelle-Anekal Road in the Far sluggish demand. South submarket. Far South has seen a little over

Outlook

Residential

Launches Price Buyer sentiment

Developers are expected to go slow on new launches in the last quarter of 2017 as they focus on selling existing finished stock and complete already launched projects. Market sentiments should improve more during the ongoing festive period backed up by stable prices.

Developers will continue to offer homebuyers bigger discounts and special deals to help close transactions during the festive period.

8 Office

Absorption Vacancy Rentals

Nearly 9.0 msf of incremental office supply expected in Q4 2017.

Vacancy is expected to remain under pressure owing to limited supply and adequate demand.

Rentals of Grade A supply will maintain their upward bias under limited supply.

Retail

Leasing Vacancy Rentals

Leasing to continue its healthy streak in main streets in absence of mall supply.

Rentals across the malls and main streets to remain stable in Q4 2017.

9 Annexure

Mumbai - Residential launches in the high-end segment during YTD 2017

Project Name Developer Location Number of Units# Type Area of Units (in sf)

Lodha Codename Lodha Group Worli 140 Apartments 3 BHK: 1,597 sf Trinity 4 BHK: 1,945 sf

The Trees Godrej Properties Vikhroli 134 Apartments 2 BHK: 766 sf 2.5 BHK: 858 sf 3 BHK: 1,262 sf 4 BHK: 1,690 sf

Zinnia Prince Care Realty Mahim 84 Apartments 2 BHK: 765 sf 3 BHK: 1,029 sf

A M Residency Alfa Mana Realtors Mazgaon 80 Apartments 2 BHK: 1,048 sf pvt ltd 2.5 BHK: 1,155 sf

Codename Seaview Lodha Group Walkeshwar 60 Apartments 2 BHK: 1,027 sf (Walkeshwar One) 3 BHK: 1,441 sf

Piramal Revanta Piramal Realty Mulund West 50 Apartments 3 BHK: 1,980 sf

Balaji Delta Central Balaji Group Kharghar 48 Apartments 3 BHK: 1,980 sf

Triveni Mont Triveni developers Ghatkopar 26 Apartments 2 BHK: 670 sf 3 BHK: 1,000 sf

Tranquil Forefront developers Andheri West 6 Apartments 2 BHK: 630 sf

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research Delhi-NCR - Residential launches in the high-end segment during YTD 2017

Project Name Developer Location Number of Units# Type Area of Units (in sf)

Rise Resort Rise Developers Greater Noida 600 Villas 4 BHK: 3,005 sf Residences West 4 BHK: 3,600 sf 5 BHK: 5,000 sf

M3M Heights @ M3M Golf Course 250 Apartments 2 BHK: 1,250 sf 65th Avenue Extension Road 2 BHK: 1,350 sf 2 BHK: 1,400 sf 2 BHK: 1,450 sf 3 BHK: 1,850 sf 3 BHK: 1,950 sf 3 BHK: 2,000 sf

Evoke Villas Godrej Properties Greater Noida 100 Villas 4 BHK: 4,177 sf 4 BHK: 5,335 sf

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research Bengaluru - Residential launches in the high-end / luxury segments during YTD 2017

Project Name Developer Location Number of Units# Type Area of Units (in sf)

Pole Star Ozone Group Nagavara 100 Apartments 2 BHK: 982 sf 3 BHK: 1,180 sf 4.5 BHK: 2,290 sf

Fortius Under Fortius Infra Devanahalli 145 Apartments 4 BHK: 4,566 sf The Sun

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research 10 This research report has been prepared by Cushman & Wakefield specially for distribution to Citibank customers.

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