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CMBS Loans in the News • We Discuss the Sale of Properties Backing Two Large Loans in LBUBS 2005-C2

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CMBS Loans in the News • We Discuss the Sale of Properties Backing Two Large Loans in LBUBS 2005-C2 18 February 2015 Fixed Income Research http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics FOR INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT USE ONLY CMBS Market Watch Weekly Securitized Products Americas Research Analysts Market activity and relative value Roger Lehman • Demand for CMBS continues to be very strong across the various sectors and +1 212 325 2123 [email protected] credits, and spreads have tightened over the past week as the overall macro picture improved. Our concerns about higher rate volatility is mitigated Sylvain Jousseaume, CFA somewhat by the move higher in yields. +1 212 325 1356 [email protected] • We have been arguing for a number of weeks that a rise in the yields would help boost demand for CMBS and that lower rates make CMBS less Serif Ustun, CFA +1 212 538 4582 compelling for investors with certain yield targets. [email protected] • We continue to like the top part of the new issue stack (single-As and higher), but remain more wary at the triple-B level and below. CMBS loans in the news • We discuss the sale of properties backing two large loans in LBUBS 2005-C2. CMBS and CMBX spreads and prices One of these was previously modified and led to a large pay-off on the A-note CMBS swap 1-wk Trailing 12-month and a full write-down on the B-note. spread/price 2/17/15 chg Min Max Avg Legacy CMBS Loans with upcoming Sears lease expirations AAA 10yr 109 -4 84 118 97 • Sears announced closures of approximately 235 Sears/Kmart locations last AM 134 -4 127 165 144 year, and we expect more stores to be shut this year. AJ 348 -8 345 485 387 • These closures as well as the company’s other moves, with respect to its real New issue CMBS estate holdings, have implications for CMBS. AAA 5yr (30% CE) 58 -2 52 68 59 AAA 10yr (30% CE) 88 -2 71 95 85 • Specifically, we have long felt that strong retail properties in better locations AAA Junior 124 -4 96 130 113 will continue to perform well. At the same time underperforming or poorly AA 162 -10 118 185 145 situated locations are the most at risk. A 209 -10 158 245 194 • We take a look at the change in the performance of loans with exposure to BBB- 348 -10 290 385 343 closures announced in 2014. We would expect over the coming months to CMBX.7 see further deterioration in some of these loans. AAA 96.99 0.21 96.14 97.83 96.93 • Clearly, store performance is one important aspect in Sears’ decision to close AS 98.46 0.18 97.28 100.12 98.57 stores, but we also believe lease expirations play a role. With this in mind we AA 100.12 0.19 97.72 101.49 99.82 have looked at exposure to Sears/Kmart with 2015 and 2016 lease A 100.20 0.09 97.98 102.17 100.17 expirations (highlighting the ones that have already been targeted for BBB- 98.80 0.39 94.87 100.68 97.92 closure). BB 98.60 0.60 94.57 101.07 97.84 • We also show which loans are backed by properties where Sears or Kmart Agency CMBS extended its lease. GNR 10yr 100 0 100 125 115 FNA 10yr 48 0 32 52 44 Highlights from February’s remittance reports FREMF 10yr 44 0 30 48 41 SBA 504 10yr 40 0 27 43 35 • The remittance reports for February have been mostly released, and we Source: Credit Suisse, Markit highlight some of the notable changes, including deals with the largest losses, the biggest loans to be defeased and the loans with the greatest changes in appraised value we have noted so far. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 18 February 2015 CMBS Roger Lehman Market activity and relative value +1 212 325 2123 [email protected] Demand for CMBS continues to be very strong across the various sectors and rating Sylvain Jousseaume, CFA levels, with spreads tighter over the past week. While we still have some concerns over +1 212 325 1356 the high level of rate volatility (shown by the CIRVE index in Exhibit 20) the overall macro [email protected] picture has improved: US equity markets are near their all time highs, credit spreads have Serif Ustun, CFA tightened and equity market volatility is down. +1 212 538 4582 [email protected] Exhibit 1: Rates volatility (CIRVE index) 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 1/7 2/4 11/5 12/3 1/14 1/21 1/28 2/11 2/18 10/29 11/12 11/19 11/26 12/10 12/17 12/24 12/31 Source: Credit Suisse Our concerns about higher rate volatility is mitigated somewhat by the move higher in yields. Even with the 10-year Treasury yield down, about 5 bp on Wednesday, in reaction to the release of the latest Fed minutes, the rate is up more than 40 bp since the end of January. We have been arguing for a number of weeks that a rise in the yields would help boost demand for CMBS and lower rates make CMBS less compelling for investors with certain yield targets. We have discussed how we believe this was partly responsible for the recent spread widening, especially at the top of the new issue stack and spreads could tighten if rates moved higher. On the new issue front, last cash flow triple-As are approximately 5 bp tighter on the week while recently issued triple-Bs are in 15 bp to 20 bp. The flatter credit curve can also be seen to some degree on the legacy side. Generically, super-seniors and tighter AMs are unchanged while wider AMs are slightly tighter and AJs are narrower by about 10 bp. Some AJs have moved even more on the release of the most recent remittance reports. The AJ class on the GCCFC 2007-GG9 deal is up approximately 4.5 points over the past week. The release of the remittance report last week helped push prices higher. The report showed the Hawaiian Retail Portfolio A-note paid off, even though there was a full loss on the B-note and the Baybrook Gateway loan had a small loss. However, the biggest positive, from the market’s perspective, was the modification of Pickwick Plaza ($190 million and 3.9% of the deal, after the $10 million pay down this month). The modification included a reduction in the pay rate and the opening of the loan prepayment restriction. It also included an unusual 18-month clawback giving the lender the right to claim additional proceeds from a future refinancing or sale. CMBS Market Watch Weekly 2 18 February 2015 The modification moved the market consensus toward pricing in no loss on this loan and that helped prop up the AJ price. This move highlights a trend we noted in our 2015 Outlook: as more loans are resolved, and greater clarity on losses emerge, these bonds will likely drift closer and closer to their ultimate value. While some of these credit bonds will undoubtedly perform well, an unanticipated negative headline or a larger than expected loss can lead to a significant underperformance. While we believe some legacy AJs are attractive, we continue to recommend that investors analyze this sector case-by-case and bond-by-bond. On the more recently issued side, we continue to like the top part of the new issue stack (single-As and higher) but remain more wary at the triple-B level and below. As we previously noted while BBB- and BB bonds (and CMBX) may offer attractive carry over the near term, the decline in underwriting quality combined with a smaller increases in associated credit support makes these more risky over a longer-term horizon. We prefer to take our down in credit exposure in the slightly seasoned bonds. We have noticed increased attempts by the market to tier new issue credits, based on the overall assessment of credit and, arguably more so, the choice of rating agencies. We believe such attempts at differentiation are an overall positive for the market’s health, and a development that needs to occur. However, we see greater tiering at the recently issued single-A and double-A level than we do across triple-B minus bonds. Some of the lack of tiering at the BBB- level is due to the demand for yield causing less discrimination but we also believe there may be too much at the single-A and double-A level and believe this part of the new issue curve offers the most attractive relative value opportunities. We believe that holds true in cash as well as in CMBX.8. The increased demand for CMBS is a positive as the forward calendar remains reasonably busy. That said, the deals slated to come in March are heavily weighted toward some large single-borrower deals. Year-to-date $14.2 billion CMBS has priced, compared to $8.6 billion at the same point last year. The March calendar is expected to remain busy and the pipeline shows approximately $15.5 billion slated to come. This would be the busiest issuance month since November 2007, surpassing the previous post-crisis high of $13.3 billion in September 2014.
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