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Rainfall in an Equatorial Africa Transition Zone: Examining Rainy- Season Characteristics and Trends in Western Uganda Georgia State University ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University Geosciences Theses Department of Geosciences 5-10-2019 Rainfall in an Equatorial Africa Transition Zone: Examining Rainy- Season Characteristics and Trends in Western Uganda Hae Seung Sung Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.gsu.edu/geosciences_theses Recommended Citation Sung, Hae Seung, "Rainfall in an Equatorial Africa Transition Zone: Examining Rainy-Season Characteristics and Trends in Western Uganda." Thesis, Georgia State University, 2019. https://scholarworks.gsu.edu/geosciences_theses/122 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Department of Geosciences at ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Geosciences Theses by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks @ Georgia State University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. RAINFALL IN AN EQUATORIAL AFRICA TRANSITION ZONE: EXAMINING RAINY- SEASON CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS IN WESTERN UGANDA by HAE SEUNG SUNG Under the Direction of Jeremy Diem, PhD ABSTRACT While long-term rainfall trends and related atmospheric dynamics in eastern equatorial Africa (EEA) and central equatorial Africa (CEA) has been researched over the past several decades, much less is known about rainfall in western Uganda. This region is considered a rainfall transition zone between CEA and EEA. Using multiple rainfall and atmospheric datasets, this study examines the controls of and trends in seasonal rainfall across western Uganda for the 1983-2017 period. Rainy (dry) seasons were characterized by rising (sinking) air and increased (decreased) specific humidity. In addition, the tropical rain belt existed across CEA and not over EEA during the western Uganda rainy seasons. And wet days within rainy seasons have increased westerly flow from the Congo basin. Rainy seasons, especially the first rains, have gotten longer and wetter in all regions, and these changes are associated with increased rising air and specific humidity in the middle troposphere. INDEX WORDS: Western Uganda, Rainfall variability, Equatorial Africa RAINFALL IN AN EQUATORIAL AFRICA TRANSITION ZONE: EXAMINING RAINY- SEASON CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS IN WESTERN UGANDA by HAE SEUNG SUNG A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in the College of Arts and Sciences Georgia State University 2019 Copyright by Hae Seung Sung 2019 RAINFALL IN AN EQUATORIAL AFRICA TRANSITION ZONE: EXAMINING RAINY- SEASON CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS IN WESTERN UGANDA by HAE SEUNG SUNG Committee Chair: Jeremy Diem Committee: Luke Pangle Ricardo Nogueira Electronic Version Approved: Office of Graduate Studies College of Arts and Sciences Georgia State University May 2019 iv DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to my better half, Bonwoo, for unfailing support and love. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my advisor, Dr. Jeremy Diem, for his dedication, enthusiasm, and patient guidance. His immense knowledge, advice, and support helped me to hone the skills I needed to complete my research and overcome academical challenges. I also wish to thank Dr. Luke Pangle for his insightful and thought-provoking comments, which have continually motivated me to ask questions. My thanks also go to Dr. Ricardo Nogueira for his great feedbacks and kindness. I would also like to thank my friends and Atlanta Regional Commission colleagues for their support and kindness. Finally, I am deeply grateful to my family for their constant love and trust. This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under award number 1740201, “Understanding the Role of Moisture Transport in Rainfall Variability and Agricultural Decision Making”. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................ V LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................VIII LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................IX 1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Rainfall in Eastern Equatorial Africa ............................................................... 3 1.2 Rainfall in Central Equatorial Africa ............................................................... 5 1.3 Rainfall in Western Uganda............................................................................... 6 1.4 Research Question and Objectives .................................................................... 8 2 STUDY REGION: WESTERN UGANDA............................................................... 9 3 DATA AND METHODS.......................................................................................... 11 3.1 Precipitation....................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Rainfall Regionalization ................................................................................... 11 3.3 Rainy Seasons and Dry Seasons....................................................................... 12 3.4 Atmospheric Conditions ................................................................................... 13 3.5 Detection of Trends in Seasons and Rainfall .................................................. 14 3.6 Exploring the Connections between Inter-annual Variability in Atmospheric Conditions and Significant Trends in Rainfall.............................................. 15 4 RESULTS.................................................................................................................. 16 4.1 Rainfall Regionalization ................................................................................... 16 vii 4.2 Typical Rainy and Dry Season by the Rainfall Regions................................ 18 4.3 Atmospheric Conditions of rainy and dry seasons......................................... 21 4.4 Atmospheric Conditions on rainy and dry days within rainy seasons......... 32 4.5 Trends in Rainy-Season Variables .................................................................. 39 4.6 Rainfall Trends for 14-day Periods ................................................................. 43 4.7 Multiple Linear Regression.............................................................................. 46 5 DISCUSSION............................................................................................................ 49 6 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................... 52 REFERENCES................................................................................................................ 53 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Start and end date of rainy seasons of rainfall datasets by the rainfall regions. ............. 20 Table 2. Changes over the 35-year period (1983-2017) of the rainy-season variables and rainfall total using the Kendall-Theil robust line .......................................................................... 40 Table 3. Summary of the multiple linear regression models developed for explaining significant increasing trends in rainfall during rainy seasons............................................................. 46 Table 4. Summary of the multiple linear regression models developed for explaining significant increasing trends in the rain just prior to the rainy seasons .............................................. 47 Table 5. Summary of the multiple linear regression models developed for explaining significant increasing and decreasing trends in rainfall during dry seasons....................................... 48 ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Annual rainfall in Central Equatorial Africa and Eastern Equatorial Africa .................. 2 Figure 2. Location of western Uganda.......................................................................................... 10 Figure 3. Water year graph ........................................................................................................... 13 Figure 4. Rainfall regions in western Uganda .............................................................................. 17 Figure 5. Monthly rainfall total in western Uganda: CHIRPS (1981-2017)................................. 18 Figure 6. Rainy season and dry season in each rainfall region..................................................... 19 Figure 7. Twelve-day average values of the atmospheric variables ............................................. 22 Figure 8. Vertical velocity and winds of Reanalysis 2 at 500 hPa by seasons ............................. 26 Figure 9. Vertical velocity and winds of ERA-Interim at 500 hPa by seasons ............................ 27 Figure 10. Specific humidity and winds of Reanalysis 2 at 500 hPa by seasons ......................... 28 Figure 11. Specific humidity and winds of ERA-Interim at 500 hPa by seasons......................... 29 Figure 12. Specific humidity and winds of Reanalysis 2 at 850 hPa by seasons ......................... 30 Figure 13. Specific humidity and winds of ERA-Interim at 850 hPa by seasons......................... 31 Figure 14. Anomalous vertical velocity and winds of Reanalysis 2 at 500 hPa........................... 33 Figure 15. Anomalous vertical velocity and winds of ERA-Interim at 500 hPa .......................... 34 Figure 16. Anomalous specific
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