The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2015 Free download at www.WorldNuclearReport.org
Mycle Schneider International Consultant on Energy and Nuclear Policy, Paris, France Convening Lead Author of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR)
Atomkraft – Eine nachhaltige Technologie für den Klimaschutz? DIW, Berlin, 5 November 2015
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the World 40 in Units, from 1954 to 1 July 2015
30 Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown 20
10
0 1954 1960 1965 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015
-10
-20
© Mycle Schneider Consulting -30
Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the US 14 in units, from 1956 to 1 July 2015
12
Reactor Startup 10 Reactor Shutdown
8
6
4
2
0 1957 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 -2
© Mycle Schneider Consulting -4
Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 18 Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the EU28 in units, from 1956 to 1 July 2015 16 14 12 10 Reactor Startup 8 Reactor Shutdown 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 © Mycle Schneider Consulting -14 1956 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Misleading Official Information on World Reactor Fleet
Source: IAEA-PRIS, Screenshot, 5 November 2015
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Misleading Official Information on Japan’s Reactor Fleet
Source: IAEA-PRIS, Screenshot, 13 October 2015
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Number of TWh Reactors Rise and Fall of the Japanese Nuclear Program — 1963 to 2014 350 Fleet (in Units) and Electricity Generation (in TWh) 60 Milliers
300 Reactors in LTO 50
Reactors in Operation
250 Electricity Production 40
200 Mycle Schneider Consulting Schneider Mycle
© 30
150
20 100
10 50
0 0 1963 1969 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 2005 2007 2010 2014 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 The WNISR2014 Establishes New Reactor Status Category: Long-Term Outage or LTO
“A nuclear power reactor is considered in Long-Term Outage (LTO) if it has not generated any power in the entire previous calendar year and in the first semester of the current calendar year of the WNISR.”
41 reactors worldwide in LTO
- 40 in Japan, shut down between 1995 and 2012 - 1 in Sweden (Oskarshamn-2), shut down in June 2013
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Number of GWe Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the World Reactors 400 in GWe, from 1954 to 1 July 2015 500 336.5 GWe 438 reactors 312 GWe 391 reactors 420 reactors 450 350
400 300 350
250 300 Mycle Schneider Consulting Schneider Mycle 200 © 250
200 150 Reactors in operation Operable capacity 150 100 100
50 50
0 0 1954 1960 1970 1980 1989 1990 2000 2002 2010 2015 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Number of GWe Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the US Reactors in GWe, from 1957 to 1 July 2015 98.5 GW 120 108 reactors 99 reactors 120 100.5 GW
100 100
80 80 Mycle Schneider Consulting Schneider Mycle 60 © 60
Reactors in operation Operable capacity 40 40
20 20
0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 1991 2000 2010 2015
Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Number of GWe Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the EU28 Reactors 160 in GWe, from 1956 to 1 July 2015 200
123 GWe 177 reactors 119.7 GW 180 128 reactors 160 120 140 Reactors in Operation Operable Capacity 120 Mycle Schneider Consulting Schneider Mycle
80 © 100
80
60 40 40
20
0 0 1956 1960 1970 1980 1988 1990 1999 2000 2010 2015
Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 TWh % Nuclear Electricity Production in the World 1990-2014 in TWh (net) and share of electricity production (gross) 4 000
20% max 17.6% 3 500 max 2,660 TWh
2,410 TWh 3 000
15% 2 500 Mycle Schneider Consulting © 2 000 10% 10.8% 1 500
1 000 5%
500
0% 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 TWh 900 Nuclear Electricity Production by Country in 2014/2013/Historic Maximum (in TWh)
800
700
Historic Maximum 600 2014 500 2013
400 Consulting MycleSchneider ©
300
200
100
0 UK Iran USA India Spain Brazil China Japan France Russia Taiwan Mexico Finland Canada Ukraine Sweden Belgium Bulgaria Armenia Hungary Slovakia Slovenia Pakistan Romania Germany Argentina Czech Rep. Switzerland Netherlands South Korea South Africa South
Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC 2015
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Number of Nuclear Reactors Listed as "Under Construction" by year, 1954 - 1 July 2015 250 234
200 48
150 Consulting MycleSchneider © Cancelled or Suspended Projects Completed and Ongoing Projects 100 Construction Starts
Numberof Reactors 186
5 5
50 67 62
0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Construction Starts of Nuclear Reactors in the World 50 by year, 1954 - 1 July 2015 (in Units)
44
40 Completed Under Construction
33 Including Cancelled Completed or Under Construction 30 Mycle Schneider Consulting MycleSchneider ©
20
15
10
Numberof Construction Starts per Year 10
3 2 1 0 0 1951 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Years Average Annual Construction Times in the World 1954-2015 22 (by grid connection date)
20
18
16
14
12
10 Consulting Schneider Mycle © 8
6
4
2
0 Size proportional to number of reactors
-2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Construction Times (in years) Startups between 2005 and July 2015
Country Units Mean Time Min Max
China 18 5.7 4.4 11.2
India 7 7.3 5.1 11.6
South Korea 5 4.9 4 6.4
Japan 3 4.6 3.9 5.1
Russia 3 28.0 25.3 31.9
Argentina 1 32.9 32.9 32.9
Iran 1 36.3 36.3 36.3
Pakistan 1 5.3 5.3 5.3
Romania 1 24.1 24.1 24.1
Total 40 9.4 3.9 36.3
Sources: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Reactors “Under Construction” in the World (1 July 2015) 2015 PRIS, MSC, PRIS, - Source: IAEA Source:
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 “Is dismantling reactors the future of Westinghouse?”* Early Closures Accelerate – Recent Cases from the US and Sweden
Shutdown Relicensed Reason Age U.S. Crystal River-3: 2009 Underway Containment damage 22 San Onofre-2 and -3: 2012 Yes Steam gen. damage 28/29 Kewaunee 2013 Yes Economics 39 Vermont Yankee 2014 Yes Economics 42 Pilgrim 2017? Yes Economics (45) Fitzpatrick 2016/17 Yes Economics (41/42)
Sweden Oskarshamn-1 2015? Upgraded Economics (44) Oskarshamn-2 2013 Upgrade halted Economics 39 Ringhals-1 2020 Upgraded Economics (46) Ringhals-2 2019 Upgraded Economics (45)
Sources: Various, compiled by MSC; *bizjournals.com, 2 Nov. 2015
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Gen III+ Reactor Construction Times • “Passive safety”, “modularisation”, “standardisation” to reduce delays/costs… • No Gen III+ design in operation • 3 designs with 18 reactors under construction: – 4 EPRs (AREVA) – 8 AP1000s (Toshiba/Westinghouse) – 6 AES-2006s (Rosatom)—Little reliable information. • EPR — Cost estimates now 3 x over budget for EPR – site quality (welding, concrete) major causes of delay – Instrumentation & Control serious regulatory concern – Flamanville and Taishan (China) may be scrapped if manufacturing errors for pressure vessel lid & bottom are too serious. • AP1000 – Construction experience from 2009 in China and 2013 in USA: Longer delays in China than for EPRs and US units as European EPRs – Module production facilities: Coolant pumps caused serious problems in China. Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Gen III+ Reactor Construction — Key Findings
• No evidence new designs cheaper than predecessors. Fukushima lessons mean costs likely to continue to increase. • Claim that design could be simplified were an illusion. EPR based on old design with added safety so could hardly be simpler. AP1000 more modern but high cost and delays suggest no reduction in complexity. • Modularisation moved quality problems from site to factory. • Standardisation for 40 years with no success. Technology still not mature, ordering rates too low, national regulators’ requirements differ. Generic design approval impossible without standardisation.
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Hinkley Point C: EDF’s Waterloo in the Making?
Investment bank Investec has advised clients to sell shares in French energy group EDF amid fears that its connection with the nuclear plant at Hinkley Point C could put payouts to shareholders under threat. The nuclear development was trumpeted last week as the Chinese government confirmed plans to invest £6billion in EDF’s scheme to build the power station in Somerset. This is Money, 25 October 2015
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 French Nuclear Companies in Trouble EDF — World’s Largest Nuclear Power Operator • 4.5%/a operating cost increase 2007-2012 à Loss of €1.5 billion in 2012 à Need for significant tariff increases • Stock value plunged ≈80% (up to 85%) since 2007 • High debt €34.2bn (€37.5bn 1st half year 2015) for turnover of €73bn
AREVA — “Global Leader in Nuclear Energy” • Technically bankrupt • Loss of €4.8bn (almost €8bn in 4 years = annual turnover) • High debt €5.8bn (€6bn 1st half year 2015) for turnover of €8.3bn • Stock value plunged by >90% since 2007 • Standard & Poor’s downgraded AREVA shares to BB+ (“junk”) in November 2014 and again to BB- in March 2015 Sources: Company websites; Standard & Poor’s
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Stock Price Development EDF vs. CAC40
CAC40
EDF
Source: http://finance.yahoo.com, 4 November2015
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Stock Price Development AREVA vs. CAC40
CAC40
AREVA
Source: Le Figaro – Bourse, 4 November2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 French Nuclear Reactor Investments
New Investment
Initial Investment/ Maintenance/Upgrading First Years of Operation
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Traditional Utilities Under Pressure
The 20 largest European energy utilities lost over half of the €1 trillion stock market value since 2008, some a lot more.
Europe’s electricity providers face an existential threat. The Economist, London, October 2013
Utility business models are threatened by the dramatic growth in the deployment of technologies that generate electricity onsite or at the distribution grid level. Navigant Research, Boulder, USA, August 2014
A new technological paradigm in electricity and the end of the reign of the large-scale utilities. Institute for Public Policy Research, London, September 2014
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 US$ billion 350 Global Investment Decisions in New Renewables and Nuclear Power 2004-2014 (in US$ billion)
300
250
200
150 Mycle Schneider Consulting Schneider Mycle ©
100
50
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Solar Wind Other renewables Nuclear
Source: FS-UNEP—BNEF 2015 and WNISR original research
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 GWe 450 Wind, Solar and Nuclear Grid Connections in the World 2000–2014 (cumulated, in GWe) 400 355 350 303 300 267
250 221
200 179 139 150 Wind Nuclear 103 100 100 66 Solar 57 50 30 20 22 15 20 13 24 10 0 0 6
-50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: WNISR, BP Statistical Review 2015
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Sources: BP, IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 TWh/ Variations in Electricity Production Compared to Reference-Year 1997 in the EU from Wind, Solar and Nuclear (in TWh)
300
242 227 198 200 Wind
Nuclear
Solar 141 125 98 100 85 65 60 57 71 75 23 37 14
0 -9 0 2 -32
-47 © Mycle Schneider Consulting -100 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: IAEA-PRIS, BP, MSC 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 GWe Startup and Shutdown of Electricity Generating Capacity in the EU 2014 15 by Energy Source in GWe
11.8
10 8.0
5 3.3 2.3 1.5 0.0 0 -0.4 -0.4 -1.1
-3.0 -5
-7.3 © Mycle Schneider Consulting -10 Wind PV Natural Gas Other Coal Fuel Oil Nuclear Renewables
Source: EWEA 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 GWe Installed Wind, Solar and Nuclear Capacity in China 2000-2014 140 (in GWe)
120 115
100 91
Mycle Schneider Consulting Consulting Schneider Mycle Wind 80 © 75 Solar Nuclear 63 60
42 40 29 26 18 19 20 13 12 10 12 16 6 7 8 5 6 3,3 6,8 2 0,8 1 3 0,1 0,3 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: EPIC, IAEA-PRIS, GWEC 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 TWh/y Electricity Production from Wind, Solar and Nuclear in China 2000-2014 200 (in TWh/year)
180 158 160
140 Wind 141 124 120 Nuclear Mycle Schneider Consulting Consulting Schneider Mycle © 100 Solar 93 96 80 66 70 52 60 50
40 28 29 16 20 4 6 0 0 1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: BP 2015, IAEA-PRIS 2015 Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 TWh Wind, Solar and Nuclear Production in India 2000-2014 50 (in TWh)
40 38
35 33 Wind 31
Mycle Schneider Consulting Consulting Schneider Mycle 29 30 © Solar 30
Nuclear 26 22 20 20 18 18 16 15 16 14 13 11 10 10
4.4 2.8 3 0,0 0,3 0,5 1.4 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Abschließende Bemerkungen
• Die meisten Indikatoren zeigen, dass die Rolle der Atomkraft auf den weltweiten Energiemärkten schrumpft. Alle Höchstwerte, ob bei Anzahl und Leistung der Reaktoren, Stromproduktion oder neue Baustellen, wurden bereits vor vielen Jahren erreicht.
• Die Position der Atomkraft auf dem Strommarkt gerät zunehmend unter Druck, bei steigendenden Produktionskosten und harter Konkurrenz durch die Erneuerbaren sinkt der Kundenstamm und sein Stromverbrauch,
• Atomunternehmen und Energieversorgungsunternehmen leiden unter hohen Schulten, schwindenden Gewinnmargen und sinkenden Großhandelspreisen.
Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015 Quotes on the WNISR • Steve Kidd, former head of strategy of the World Nuclear Association (WNA): “Hence well-researched and articulate critiques against the concept of any nuclear growth (and notably of nuclear playing a substantial role in mitigating climate change) such as the annual World Nuclear Industry Status Report, are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.” (NIW, 17 July 2015)
• In its latest update for Members the WNA reported that its Fuel Report Working Group "discussed the merits of producing an annual nuclear capacity scenario update. Such an update would be a useful communications tool and a counter to the industry-critical World Nuclear Industry Status Report". Thank Yo u! Contact: [email protected] www.WorldNuclearReport.org - online now! Mycle Schneider Consulting Berlin, 5 November 2015