USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal #1095

USAF Counterproliferation Center (CPC) Outreach Journal

Issue No. 1095, 20 December 2013 Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal! As part of the CPC’s mission to develop Air Force, DoD, and other USG leaders to advance the state of knowledge, policy, and practices within strategic defense issues involving nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, we offer the government and civilian community a source of contemporary discussions on unconventional weapons. These discussions include news articles, papers, and other information sources that address issues pertinent to the U.S. national security community. It is our hope that this information resources will help enhance the overall awareness of these important national security issues and lead to the further discussion of options for dealing with the potential use of unconventional weapons. The CPC is seeking submissions for its annual General Charles A. Horner award, which honors the best original writing on issues relating to Air Force counter-WMD and nuclear enterprise operations. The deadline for submissions is March 31, 2014. For more information, please visit our web-site. The following news articles, papers, and other information sources do not necessarily reflect official endorsement of the Air University, U.S. Air Force, or Department of Defense. Reproduction for private use or commercial gain is subject to original copyright restrictions. All rights are reserved.

FEATURED ITEM: Modernizing the Nuclear Security Enterprise: NNSA’s Budget Estimates Do Not Fully Align with Plans. December 2013: GAO Report. http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/659610.pdf The National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) total budget estimates for modernizing the nuclear security enterprise for fiscal years 2014 through 2031 have increased by about $19 billion overall when compared to estimates in the agency’s fiscal year 2012 budget materials, with most of the increase occurring in fiscal year 2019 and beyond. Factors such as sequestration, the achievability of planned cost savings, and pension liabilities could affect the accuracy of future budget estimates as presented.

Outreach Journal Feedback or sign-up request: [email protected] U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS 1. U.S. Nuclear-Arms Cost Estimate Jumps Up $27 Billion 2. Congress Wants Pentagon to Upgrade Nuclear Command and Control 3. US General in Charge of Nuclear Weapons Fired after Drinking Alcohol and Hanging Out with 'Suspicious' Women while in Russia - Report

U.S. COUNTER-WMD 1. US Voices Concern on Russia’s Nuclear Plans 2. Tensions Rise as U.S. Moves Missile Interceptor Batteries to Guam

HOMELAND SECURITY/THE AMERICAS 1. USEC, Enricher of Uranium for U.S., Seeks Bankruptcy 2. Jeh Johnson Confirmed as Homeland Security Secretary

ASIA/PACIFIC 1. Kim Purge Puts World on Alert 2. Defense Minister Raises Possibility of N.K. Provocations 3. China Conducts Second Flight Test of New Long-Range Missile 4. 'Military behind Jang Execution' 5. N. Korea Threatens to Strike South 'Without Notice'

MIDDLE EAST 1. Iran Halts Technical-Level Nuclear Talks over US Sanctions Move 2. Second Monkey Sent into Space, Says Iran's President 3. Iran: Nuclear Talks Continue Despite US Blacklist 4. Verified Compliance with IAEA Conditions Will Win Iran Sanctions Lifting – EU 5. Chemical Weapons Agency Unveils Plan for Destroying Syria’s Stockpile 6. Zarif: Iran Can Resume 20% Enrichment in Less than 24 Hours 7. Iran, Six World Powers Resume Expert Talks on Nuclear Deal 8. 'Iran Has Nuclear Fuel Reserve to Last Four Years'

INDIA/PAKISTAN 1. New Head Appointed to Take Charge of Pakistan's Nuclear Assets

COMMENTARY 1. Should Russia Fear the U.S. 'Prompt Global Strike'? 2. How Can Russia Ensure Military Parity? 3. Iskander in Kaliningrad is a Vestige of the Cold War 4. China’s Strategic Capabilities and Intent 5. Is North Korea Preparing Its Fourth Nuclear Test?

Global Security Newswire U.S. Nuclear-Arms Cost Estimate Jumps Up $27 Billion By Diane Barnes, Global Security Newswire December 13, 2013 An 18-year spending outlook for U.S. nuclear arms has shot up by $27.1 billion, and costs could rise further still, congressional auditors said this week. Investigators found the increase by comparing the Obama administration's latest cost estimate for maintaining and updating U.S. nuclear weapons over a set period -- fiscal years 2014 through 2031 -- to the U.S. estimate from two years ago for the same timeframe, according to a Government Accountability Office report released Wednesday. The National Nuclear Security Administration blamed the uptick from in part on a change in its calculation method. The agency -- a semiautonomous arm of the Energy Department -- noted that its projection from fiscal 2012 relied on out-of-date data based on the now-defunct Reliable Replacement Warhead program, auditors wrote in the assessment. GAO auditors said a schedule adjustment also contributed to the cost jump, which boosted anticipated stockpile expenditures for the 18-year period from $46 billion to $73.1 billion. The Obama administration moved up plans to begin modernizing nuclear warheads for the Air Launched Cruise Missile seven years sooner -- in 2024 instead of 2031 -- bringing more of the associated costs into the time range under scrutiny.

Defense One.com Congress Wants Pentagon to Upgrade Nuclear Command and Control By Rachel Oswald, Global Security Newswire December 18, 2013 Congress is getting set to tell the Pentagon to create a new body to oversee technologies that facilitate U.S. leaders' communications during nuclear crises. A provision in the House-Senate compromise on an annual military authorization bill would require the Defense Department to establish a special council with responsibility for "nuclear command, control, and communications," also known as the NC3 system. This is a "collection of activities, processes, and procedures performed by appropriate military commanders and support personnel that … allow for senior-level decisions on nuclear weapons employment to be made … and subsequently allow for those decisions to be communicated to forces for execution," according to The Nuclear Matters Handbook. The special council envisioned by the fiscal 2014 defense policy-setting bill would be responsible for identifying and mitigating any potential vulnerabilities in NC3 technology, providing oversight of system-performance assessments, developing the overall system architecture, and ensuring that the program has the resources it needs. The nuclear network's ongoing development projects include the Family of Advanced Beyond Line-of-Sight Terminals, designed to ensure that senior civilian and military officials have the ability to communicate securely with one another via military satellites. As this kind of cutting-edge technology can take years to develop, House and Senate Armed Service Committee members felt it was important to "institutional the whole process of acquisition and policy," said a Senate staffer, who was not authorized to speak on the record. This would mean establishing a new Defense body with an explicit mandate to manage the project, the aide said. The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review noted that the Pentagon aimed to improve the nuclear command-and-control system by "modernizing 'legacy' single-purpose NC3 capabilities to meet current and projected challenges." Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 3 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Currently, acquisition planning for the nuclear communications system occurs on an "ad hoc" basis that "tends to ebb and flow" depending on who is in charge, the Capitol Hill aide said in a phone interview last week. Bridge Colby, an analyst with the Center for Naval Analyses, said the bill provision likely was prompted by the recent departure of former Deputy Defense Secretary Ash Carter and the impending exit of Defense Undersecretary for Policy James Miller. As both men had been focused on nuclear-communications issues, "there's a sense that this important effort could be left to drift," Colby said in an e-mail. "The [defense bill] provision is a way to try to institutionalize potent and effective advocacy for and oversight of the NC3 system," he added. Under the legislation, Congress would give the nuclear network a senior focus inside the Pentagon. The measure directs that the council be co-chaired by the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the undersecretary of Defense for acquisition, technology, and logistics. The body also is to include the undersecretary of Defense for policy; the head of Strategic Command; the director of the National Security Agency; and the Pentagon's chief information officer. Ploughshares Fund policy analyst Ben Loehrke said he saw the potential creation of the council as a positive. "U.S. security is only strengthened by improved command and control, which would help decrease the risk of accidents or intrusions and aid in crisis decision-making," Loehrke said in an e-mail. "Hopefully this bureaucratic [change] will help the Pentagon prioritize and resource such improvements." The House has already approved the 2014 defense authorization measure. The Senate is expected to begin consideration of the bill on Wednesday, according to Politico. The Defense Department did not respond to requests for comment on the called-for Pentagon body by press time. The agency in the past has said it does not comment on pending legislation. http://www.defenseone.com/management/2013/12/congress-wants-pentagon-upgrade-nuclear-command-and- control/75645/?oref=d-channelriver Return to Top

The Voice of Russia - Russia 20 December 2013 US General in Charge of Nuclear Weapons Fired after Drinking Alcohol and Hanging Out with 'Suspicious' Women while in Russia - Report A US Air Force general in charge of nuclear weapons repeatedly drank too much and behaved like a boor, insulted his colleagues, and hang out with two "suspicious" women he met at a hotel bar while on official trip in Russia last summer, according to an investigation report released Thursday. Major General Michael Carey who was fired from his post as head of US land-based nuclear missile forces was on the official in Russia as the leader of a US government delegation to a nuclear security training exercise. At the time, he was commander of the 20th Air Force, responsible for 450 Minuteman 3 intercontinental ballistic missiles stationed in five US states. After the trip, a member of the delegation complained to the Air Force Inspector General's office about Carey's "inappropriate behavior," that could harm the US national security. The report said Carey was frequently rude to his Russian hosts and others, and that he associated with foreign national women whom he acknowledged were "suspect." The report says that Major General started drinking during a stopover in Zurich and kept it up during three days in Moscow, causing a string of gaffes and embarrassments that led Air Force officials to relieve him of his command.

Manila Standard Today – Manila, Philippines US Voices Concern on Russia’s Nuclear Plans By Agence France-Presse (AFP) December 17, 2013 WASHINGTON—The United States has voiced its concerns to Russia over plans to move nuclear-capable missiles close to the borders of neighboring states, a US official said Monday. “We’ve urged Russia to take no steps to destabilize the region,” State Department deputy spokeswoman Marie Harf said, adding the US had also passed on to Moscow its neighbors’ concerns at the plans to deploy Iskander-M missiles in the Kaliningrad area. Poland and three Baltic states on Monday also expressed alarm that the missiles would be close to their borders. “We certainly know the countries in the neighborhood have expressed concerns over it, and we’ll keep talking to them about it,” Harf said. The Russian deployment comes in response to the planned US-led deployment of a disputed air defense shield, which Washington has long argued is not aimed at Moscow. The advanced version of the Russian missile has a range of 500 kilometers (310 miles) and could potentially be used to take out ground-based radar and interceptors of the new NATO shield.

The Hindu – India Tensions Rise as U.S. Moves Missile Interceptor Batteries to Guam U.S. aggression would be “smashed by... cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike means: North Korea December 18, 2013 WASHINGTON -- The probability of a nuclear exchange between North Korea and other nations including the U.S. inched upwards this week as Pyongyang put out a statement that “The moment of explosion is approaching fast,” and that U.S. aggression would be “smashed by... cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike means.” The remarks raising tensions in the Korean peninsula came shortly after the Pentagon announced that it would be mobilising ground-based THAAD missile-interceptor batteries to protect its military bases on Guam, a U.S. territory located 3,380 km southeast of North Korea and “home to 6,000 American military personnel, submarines and bombers.” North Korea added that a war could break out “today or tomorrow.” The THAAD system includes a truck-mounted launcher and interceptor missiles, reports pointed out, and the Pentagon argued that its deployment would “strengthen our regional defence posture against the North Korean regional ballistic missile threat.” South Korea offered its assessment of the North’s positioning confirming that Pyongyang had moved a missile with “considerable range” to its east coast, but that that missile was “not capable of hitting the U.S. mainland.” Caution The North Korean military however cautioned that it had received “final approval for military action” against the U.S., particularly responding to what it called the “provocative U.S. use of nuclear-capable B-52 and B-2 stealth bombers in ongoing war games with South Korea.” Even U.S. Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel declared that North Korea posed “a real and clear danger” to South Korea, Japan and America, reports quoting unnamed South Korean and U.S. intelligence sources suggested that the allegedly untested North Korean Musudan missile had a theoretical range of 3,000 km and this could put “all of South Korea and Japan within its reach.” North Korea, meanwhile, held firm to its blockade of the South from the Kaesong factory park run, which both nations operate jointly. Some reports said that North Korea had given South Korean companies time “until 10th of April to pull out” of the area, although South Korea’s reunification ministry was said to have denied that such a deadline had been given. http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/world/tensions-rise-as-us-moves-missile-interceptor-batteries-to- guam/article5471144.ece Return to Top

Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 6 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama The New York Times USEC, Enricher of Uranium for U.S., Seeks Bankruptcy By MATTHEW L. WALD December 17, 2013 Page – B4 WASHINGTON — USEC, the sole American company in the uranium enrichment business, said Monday that it would file for bankruptcy early next year, although it hopes to keep operating. The company, which has received $257 million in Energy Department aid in the last two years, is a former government enterprise that the Reagan administration privatized. But like Amtrak and the Postal Service, other quasi-private entities created by the government, USEC has found life in the private sector rough going. It plans to complete testing on prototype centrifuges and build more of them to offer enrichment on a commercial basis. USEC is aiming to compete with technologies developed in Western Europe and Russia. But the market for enrichment has gone soft as many nuclear reactors have closed. Now, the company says that effort will cost $6.5 billion and will not be finished until 2017. Initially, it was supposed to cost $1.7 billion and be completed by 2005. USEC, which formerly stood for the United States Enrichment Corporation and is based in Bethesda, Md., said that under the bankruptcy proceeding, holders of its secured debt would acquire 95 percent of the equity. Two companies that have been backing the centrifuge project, Toshiba and B&W, would become significant owners. The bankruptcy is “preplanned,” meaning that the company’s revised structure is in place. The bankruptcy plans could complicate the company’s strategy. USEC has been seeking more government help for centrifuge development at a plant in Portsmouth, Ohio, which formerly used gaseous diffusion for enrichment. Gaseous diffusion — the technology developed during World War II to make the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan — uses far more electricity than centrifuges, and has become uncompetitive. USEC closed its last gaseous diffusion plant in May. USEC has made some inroads with its centrifuge technology. For example, the company made a profit on a deal to take uranium enriched for Russian warheads and turn it into fuel for American civilian reactors. But that 20-year arrangement is now nearly complete. And the bankruptcy announcement may make it more difficult for USEC to persuade the government to invest more in the Portsmouth project. “The Department of Energy’s policy of continuing to prop up USEC with financial assistance has now proven to be as bankrupt as the company itself,” said Senator Edward J. Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat and longtime critic of most nuclear technologies. The bankruptcy could force USEC to eventually give up on the new centrifuges. If the company stops work on them, the Energy Department would own the technology because of the aid it has provided. But it is not clear if the department would develop it. One reason that the Energy Department might pay to do so — or that Congress might be persuaded to give more aid to the company — is to continue using uranium that USEC enriches to make tritium, a form of hydrogen that is the h in the h-bomb. Uranium enriched by USEC is used to make tritium at a civilian reactor in Tennessee. The Energy Department has said that under international agreements, tritium for weapons can only be produced with American uranium, enriched using an American technology. And USEC’s new centrifuge technology, if put into commercial service, would be the only one to qualify as an American technology. Other experts have argued, though, that the Energy Department has misinterpreted the treaties and that uranium could be enriched in the United States with European technology.

Global Security Newswire Jeh Johnson Confirmed as Homeland Security Secretary By Jordain Carney, National Journal December 17, 2013 The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has a new secretary as of Monday, after the Senate voted 78 to 16 to confirm Jeh Johnson. The vote on the former Pentagon lawyer marks the end of widely expected confirmation, which was made almost inevitable by Majority Leader Harry Reid's decision to go "nuclear" last month in reforming Senate process for votes on nominations. Twenty-three Republicans voted for Johnson's nomination. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who voted against him, railed against Reid's decision on Tuesday morning before the Senate took up a slate of nominees. The Kentucky Republican called it a "grave mistake" and tied it to what he believes is a larger narrative of the Obama administration and Democrats not playing by the rules. "This vote isn't about any one nominee… It's about an attitude on the left that says the ends justify the means," he said, before the Senate voted on the first nomination. Johnson received bipartisan support, though possible holds by Republican Senators John McCain of Arizona, and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, at times threatened his path to confirmation. Graham's hold wasn't specific to Johnson but against all nominees in an attempt to get survivors of the Benghazi terrorist attack to testify before members of Congress. McCain battled with Johnson during his confirmation hearing last month over a request for information on border security. The Arizona Republican told the Associated Press that the nominee "refused to tell me that he would give me the information as to what is necessary to have 90 percent effective control of our border." But Johnson was passed out of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee by a voice vote, with McCain and Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.) being added to the record as no votes. He received bipartisan praise during the committee's vote, with Senator Tom Coburn (Okla.), the committee's ranking member, noting that while he thinks the Homeland Security Department is dysfunctional, he considers Johnson an "open and honest broker." Johnson is taking over an agency with a wide array of at times disjointed missions that has had to deal with low morale and holes in its leadership team. He previously worked in the Pentagon helping develop some of country's top counterterrorism policies. He is replacing Janet Napolitano, who stepped down in September to become the first female president of the University of California. Rand Beers has stepped in as the acting secretary since then. http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/jeh-johnson-confirmed-homeland-security-secretary/ Return to Top

The Japan Times – Japan Kim Purge Puts World on Alert Kyodo, The Washington Post, Associated Press (AP) December 14, 2013 Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 8 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama North Korea’s announcement Friday of the execution of Jang Song Thaek, who had been seen as the country’s second-most powerful figure, has further consolidated leader Kim Jong Un’s one-man rule, but the punishment that experts describe as a “reign of terror” may become a hefty price to pay — especially in respect to his pursuit of economic development. The ghastly purge of Kim’s 67-year-old uncle has shocked the rest of the world, strengthening the negative image outsiders have of North Korea as a very different type of country with high political risk to foreign investment, at a time when Pyongyang is trying hard to boost its economy. “Jang’s execution is a frightening development that reinforces the outside world’s worries about the North Korean regime and its young dictator,” said Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii. Masao Okonogi, a research professor of Korean affairs at Kyushu University, believes North Korea is currently going through the process of “power realignment” rather than a power struggle, and Kim’s efforts to solidify his dictatorship are “near the final stage of completion.” The execution took place only four days after a meeting Sunday of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea that decided to strip Jang of all his posts for committing “counter-revolutionary factional acts.” North Korean watchers see the swift execution of Jang, instead of keeping him under custody, as evidence of Kim’s strong desire to tighten his grip both on the Workers’ Party of Korea and the army after taking the country’s helm following the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, in December 2011. “This is a kind of reign of terror,” Okonogi said. Kim is thought to be 30 years old, making him among the world’s youngest heads of state. Some who study the North say that Kim, as a product of his age, has felt it necessary to quickly remove those from older generations who owed their loyalty to his father. Well before the purge of Jang, Kim had ousted scores of second- and third- level functionaries in the Workers’ Party and military in one of the North’s biggest personnel turnovers in decades. As a telltale signal of the change, Kim has removed or demoted five of the seven elderly officials who walked alongside the hearse carrying his father’s body during a state funeral two years ago. Those officials, dubbed at the time the “Gang of Seven,” were described in the South Korean media as the likely backbone of Kim Jong Un’s rule. Several in the group knew Jong Il from his college days or even before. Their average age at the time of the funeral: 73. Among the gang, U Tong Chuk, who oversaw the North’s secret police, has not been seen in public since March 2012, his absence unexplained. Ri Yong Ho, a high-ranking military chief, was relieved of his duties for what the North tersely described as an illness. Two other top officials were demoted. Jang’s ouster was by far the most public. The only two who have kept their positions — Choe Tae Bok and Kim Ki Nam — are in their mid-80s and represent little threat. “Kim Jong Un has proven to the nation and his people that he is capable of taking out even those closest to him,” said Suh Choo-suk, an expert at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul. Suh added that the turnover recalls the 1950s and 1960s, when founder Kim Il Sung purged a group of more moderate challengers with ties to the Soviets and Chinese. Kim Il Sung banished or killed those opponents, replacing them with a hand-picked group of former guerrillas who fought alongside him in northeastern China. Even for Kim Il Sung, a full consolidation of power did not come until 1972 — 24 years after he established the country — when the North adopted a constitution that authorized his supreme power. The next leader, Kim Jong Il, needed almost as much time to cement his own rise: He was groomed by Kim Il Sung starting in the mid-1970s and gained full control of every major institution in 1998, four years after Kim Il Sung’s death. For Kim Jong Un, the father-to-son power transfer was not nearly as well-planned. Kim Jong Il died in 2011, when the succession process was in its infancy and before Kim Jong Un had built up his own network of lieutenants.

Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 9 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama As a result, many outside experts and U.S. officials believed that Jang and others — including Kim Jong Un’s aunt, Kim Kyong Hui — would play key caretaker roles, perhaps with a power-sharing system. That has not proved to be the case. In the months after his father’s death, Kim Jong Un received multiple and redundant leadership positions, placing him clearly in supreme command. Although Kim still might rely on his aunt for guidance, she is thought to suffer from liver problems and is rarely seen in public. Roy, an expert on Northeast Asian security issues, said that even if one fully accepts North Korean media reports regarding Jang, the question remains how he managed to gain the trust of the two previous leaders and rise to the de facto No. 2 position. “It makes Kim Jong Un look desperate and the regime look unstable,” Roy said. “This may indicate that the young Kim is fearful of a coup and feels he needs to send a strong message to deter any other would-be plotters.” The purge also could spread and bring down more people, said Victor Cha, a former senior White House adviser on Asia. “When you take out Jang, you’re not taking out just one person — you’re taking out scores if not hundreds of other people in the system,” Cha said. “It’s got to have some ripple effect.” South Korean intelligence officials say two of Jang’s closest aides were executed last month. Narushige Michishita, a security expert at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, suggested that Jang’s removal shows “that Kim Jong Un has the guts to hold onto power, and this might have shown his will to power, his willingness to get rid of anything that stands in his way.” One of the biggest opportunities for the world to see what might happen next will come Dec. 17, the second anniversary of Kim Jong Il’s death. North Korea watchers will be closely following whether Hui, the younger sister of Kim Jong Il, and other figures are present in official ceremonies marking the day. Jang’s removal leaves no clear No. 2 under Kim, whose inner circle now includes Vice Marshal Choe Ryong Hae, Premier Pak Pong Ju and the ceremonial head of state, Kim Yong Nam. A North Korean man in his 30s, who arrived at Beijing’s international airport from Pyongyang on Friday, said Jang deserved punishment for what he did and people in the country “all completely approve and back it.” Asked whether North Korea will become unstable, he strongly denied the possibility, saying, “On the contrary, (the regime) will become stronger through this.” Still, the execution of Jang, who was vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission and had assumed many other key posts, could have negative consequences to its economy as it increased factors of potential uncertainty in North Korea. North Korea said last month it plans to set up 14 additional economic development areas around the country. But now the biggest political upheaval in Pyongyang since the death of the previous leader will make it even more difficult to attract foreign investment and persuade the international community to lift sanctions. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/12/14/world/kim-purge-puts-world-on-alert/#.UrIy9q-x5Dx Return to Top

The Korea Herald – South Korea Defense Minister Raises Possibility of N.K. Provocations Rep. Cho claims signs of preparations for nuclear, missile tests By Song Sang-ho December 17, 2013 Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin on Tuesday raised the possibility of North Korean provocations between late January and early March, calling for full preparedness and tighter troop discipline. The period is when the militaries of the two Koreas conduct a set of regular troop drills, including an annual South Korea-U.S. exercise, which Pyongyang has routinely condemned as a “rehearsal for a war of invasion.” Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 10 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Rep. Cho Won-jin of the ruling Saenuri Party, a member of the parliamentary intelligence committee, also said there were signs of Pyongyang preparing for additional nuclear and missile tests, a claim the Defense Minister denied. During a video teleconference with top commanders of the Army, Navy and Air Force, Kim ordered all troops to remain ready to take an “unsparing” retaliatory action if ever provoked. “While preparing ourselves to handle the threats of both low-intensity provocations and an all-out war, we should make sure that we devastate their will to fight by destroying the leadership and those supporting it, should the enemy set off provocations,” Kim was quoted as saying by his spokesperson Kim Min-seok. Calling the recent execution of Jang Song-thaek, the uncle of North Korean ruler Kim Jong-un, a “major turning point” in the reclusive regime’s political governance, the minister forecast that internal instability in the North would increase in the long run. “The execution could further strengthen internal unity temporarily. But as time goes on, the regime would lose public support, and distrust toward the regime would grow, which could make the leadership increasingly unstable,” he said. “Sources of instability in the North coupled with inordinate competition among military elites to show loyalty (to the dynastic ruler) could lead to miscalculations, and there could be various forms of provocations.” Kim’s remarks came a day after President Park Geun-hye ordered the establishment of a standing secretariat of the National Security Council to better cope with North Korean situations and the changing regional security landscape. During a meeting of her senior secretaries, Park said that “reckless provocations” by the North could not be ruled out, calling for a robust military readiness, beefed-up border patrol and tighter discipline in officialdom. Saenuri Rep. Cho claimed that Pyongyang would likely use an additional nuclear test as a way to push China to do more to shore up bilateral ties and help address the North’s diplomatic isolation. He refused to confirm sources of his intelligence. The Defense Ministry denied Cho’s claim, saying that there were no signs of an imminent nuclear test, and that there is no missile launcher erected in the North. “For now, there are just few options, which North Korea can use to break its diplomatic impasse, due to strained ties with China. A fourth nuclear test could be a viable card for Pyongyang to play,” Cho told The Korea Herald. “It would not be long before the North presents its nuclear test card again to bring China to the negotiating table and push it to do what the North wants such as arranging the North Korea-China summit.” The Pyongyang-Beijing relations have recently deteriorated as China has shown strong opposition to the North’s nuclear armament and vowed to actively comply with the international sanctions against the North. Analysts said the recent execution of Jang might have unnerved Beijing as Jang was seen as having close ties to Beijing officials, given that he has spearheaded major economic cooperation projects with China. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20131217000922 Return to Top

The Washington Free Beacon – Washington, D.C. China Conducts Second Flight Test of New Long-Range Missile DF-41 is second test of road-mobile, likely MIRV-capable ICBM By Bill Gertz December 17, 2013

Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 11 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama China’s military conducted the second flight test of its newest long-range missile that is capable of hitting targets in the United States with a nuclear warhead, according to defense officials. The flight test of the new Dong Feng-41, or DF-41, took place Friday from the Wuzhai missile launch center in Shanxi province to an impact range in western China, said officials familiar with details of the tests. It was the second test of the new, road-mobile, long-range ICBM that U.S. intelligence agencies assess will be outfitted with up to 10 multiple, independently-targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs. Prior to Friday’s flight test, the last DF-41 flight test took place July 24, 2012. Pentagon spokesmen did not return emails seeking comment on the missile test. The most recent test indicates that China’s long-range missile development is continuing, and the missile is raising new concerns about China’s professed nuclear doctrine of not being the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict. Disclosure of the nuclear missile flight test comes as tensions remain heightened between the United States and China over the near collision between the USS Cowpens, a guided missile cruiser, and a Chinese navy tank landing ship in the South China Sea on Dec. 5. The State Department and Pentagon protested the incident, which involved the Chinese ship stopping in the path of the Cowpens, forcing the cruiser to make an abrupt maneuver to avoid a collision. The incident took place near China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning. The DF-41, with its range of between 6,835 miles and 7,456 miles and expected multiple-warhead capability, is viewed as a potential “first strike” weapon, or a weapon capable of carrying out a surprise nuclear attack that would knock out an enemy’s arsenal and limit its counterstrike capability. A report by the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center made public in May referred to China’s development of a new long-range missile with multiple warheads, in addition to current long-range DF-31 and DF- 31A mobile ICBMs. “China has the most active and diverse ballistic missile development program in the world,” the NASCI report said. “It is developing and testing offensive missiles, forming additional missile units, qualitatively upgrading missile systems, and developing methods to counter ballistic missile defenses.” “The Chinese ballistic missile force is expanding in both size and types of missiles.” Without mentioning the DF-41, the report said, “China may also be developing a new road-mobile ICBM capable of carrying a MIRV payload, and the number of warheads on Chinese ICBMs capable of threatening the United States is expected to grow to well over 100 in the next 15 years.” Defense officials said the report was referring to the DF-41. Rick Fisher, a China military affairs expert and senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said reports of the latest DF-41 test coincide with disclosures on Chinese military enthusiast websites showing a new 18-wheel transporter erector launcher for the new DF-41. “It appears that this new large MIRV-capable ICBM is making progress toward achieving an operational status,” Fisher said. Fisher said there are reports that the Second Artillery Corps, as China’s missile service is called, includes at least one reload missile for each mobile missile-launcher system. If the new DF-41 is deployed in the future with a reload missile per launcher, it would vastly increase the numbers of nuclear warheads in the Chinese arsenal, as many as 120 to 240 warheads for each DF-41 unit. “What this means is that Obama administration suggestions that the United States can continue to reduce its number of deployed warheads, perhaps to 1,000 or less, is simply irrational,” Fisher said.

Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 12 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama “What we know and don’t know about China’s ability to rapidly increase its warhead numbers points to an unacceptable level of risk for the United States.” In addition to the DF-41, China also has begun to deploy its submarine-launched ballistic missile called the JL-2 and may develop a follow-on JL-2A with up to three warheads. “Inasmuch as the U.S. Navy estimates there will be up to five of the 12-missile carrying Type 094 nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines, this at least indicates that [missile submarines] could become another source for fast Chinese warhead growth,” he said. The publication Jane’s Strategic Weapon Systems reported in 2012 that the Chinese were developing the DF-41, also designated the CSS-X-10, and that it is intended to replace easy-to-target silo-based DF-5 and DF-5A missiles. Larry Wortzel, a former military intelligence officer and member of the congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, told the House Armed Services Committee in testimony last month that the new DF- 41 is part of China’s growing nuclear missile arsenal. “China is enhancing its nuclear deterrent capability by modernizing its nuclear force,” Wortzel said Nov. 20. “It is taking measures such as developing a new road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the DF-41. This missile could be equipped with a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV), allowing it to carry as many as 10 nuclear warheads.” Wortzel said the Chinese, in addition to MIRVs, could outfit their missiles with “penetration aids” designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses. China also may be developing rail-mobile ICBMs, he said. The Chinese nuclear buildup could have a profound impact on regional security. China recently has been bullying its neighbors, specifically Japan and Philippines, over islands and maritime claims. “When China achieves a position of nuclear parity or even superiority, we can expect that it will make far more vigorous demands on the United States that could diminish the security of America and its friends and allies,” Fisher said. Mark Stokes, a former Pentagon official and specialist on China’s strategic nuclear systems has said the DF-41 has been mentioned in Chinese military writings and appears to involve a larger, solid fuel rocket motor derived from the DF-31 series ICBMS. Ground tests of the DF-41 motor have been detected over the past several years. There are suspicions among U.S. intelligence analysts that the DF-41 is based on Russia’s mobile ICBM known as the SS-27 and that the DF-41 will incorporate Russian missile guidance technology. China in August conducted two flight tests of the DF-31A ICBM and in November 2012, another DF-31A was flight- tested. Tsai The-sheng, Taiwan’s director of the National Security Bureau, as the intelligence service for the island nation is called, told Taiwan’s legislature that China is still developing the DF-41 and the sub-launched JL-2. “Neither of them has been deployed at any Chinese military base yet,” Tsai said, the official Central News Agency reported April 15. Tsai said that China’s fast pace of military technology development makes it very likely the People’s Liberation Army will deploy a multi-warhead DF-41 in the future. http://freebeacon.com/china-conducts-second-flight-test-of-new-long-range-missile/ Return to Top

The Korea Times – South Korea 'Military behind Jang Execution' Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 13 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama By Chung Min-uck December 20, 2013 A lawmaker said Friday that a hard-line military faction led by Choe Ryong-hae, a vice marshal of the North Korean People’s Army, was behind last week’s execution of Jang Song-thaek, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s uncle and the country’s former No. 2 man. He also insisted that Kim Jong-un is merely a symbolic figure in the reclusive country and that Choe holds ultimate power. “Choe executed Jang by staging a coup,” said Ahn Hong-joon, a ruling Saenuri Party lawmaker and chairman of the National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee. “Many think Jang’s purge was part of Kim Jong-un’s plan to consolidate his power but he does not hold any actual authority in the North.” “Kim is upheld by North Koreans as a single, symbolic god of the Mount Baekdu bloodline while Choe makes all the decisions,” Ahn added. The North claims the mountain, the highest peak on the Korean Peninsula and located on the Sino-North Korean border, is a “sacred” place where Kim Il-sung, founder of North Korea and Kim Jong-un’s grandfather, devoted himself to anti-Japanese attacks during the colonial era. The lawmaker’s comments captured media attention as it goes contrary to the general perception that Kim Jong- un purged Jang to consolidate power. The lawmaker further said the purging of former vice marshal Ri Young-ho that took place last year was also carried out as part of a similar factional strife between Jang and the military. “Jang’s group made a surprise attack on Ri’s residence killing around 20 of Ri’s confidants and arresting Ri,” he said “The execution of Jang came as a retaliation from the military faction.” Last year, former vice marshal Ri Young-ho, another influential figure in Pyongyang politics, was dismissed and removed from all his posts. “The political situation in the North is very unstable right now and there could be further strife between different interest groups,” said the lawmaker. “A firm security posture is essential for South Korea at this point.” Meanwhile, Pyongyang’s state-run radio reported Friday that Korean officials and ordinary people have sworn loyalty to their leader Kim Jong-un in an apparent attempt to drum up support for the young leader following the bloody purge of his uncle. North Koreans said they will faithfully “follow the ideology and leadership of the Marshall of Baekdu bloodline” in a series of allegiance letters addressed to the leader, according to a radio broadcast monitored in Seoul. On Monday, tens of thousands of North Korean troops also pledged their loyalty to Kim. http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2013/12/485_148322.html Return to Top

Yonhap News Agency – South Korea N. Korea Threatens to Strike South 'Without Notice' By Kim Eun-jung December 20, 2013 SEOUL, Dec. 20 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has threatened to strike South Korea in response to conservatives' anti- Pyongyang rallies here on the second death anniversary of its leader Kim Jong-il earlier this week, the defense ministry here said Friday.

Xinhua News – China Russia to Add 15 ICBMs to Arsenal by 2013 December 17, 2013 MOSCOW, Dec. 17 (Xinhua) -- Russia is to put into service 15 more inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBM) by the end of this year, the commander of the strategic missile forces (RVSN) said Tuesday. "Currently the Yars mobile missile systems are being attached to the divisions in Novosibirsk and Tomsk," Colonel General Sergei Karakayev told reporters on the RVSN Day in Russia. According to Karakayev, 15 fifth-generation Yars ICBMs will be put into service in these two locations by the end of 2013. In 2014, two more divisions will also be armed with Yars and 16 launches of the ICBMs will be conducted with various training, testing and commercial tasks, he said.

RT (Russia Today) – Russia US to Deploy ABM Systems in Europe Despite P5+1 Deal with Iran December 17, 2013 The US will deploy its missile defense system in Europe despite progress in Iran nuclear talks, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said. The news came as Russia confirmed the deployment of Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad region, bordering the EU. The US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel has officially informed his Russian counterpart during a video teleconference on Monday that the P5+1 Joint Plan of Action, concluded between Iran and P5+1 member states regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, “does not eliminate the need for US and European allies to continue implementing missile defense plans in Europe,” the Defense Department’s website reported. Hagel assured his Russian counterpart, Sergey Shoigu, that “NATO missile defense efforts pose no threat to Russia and urged that both sides continue consultations on future missile plans in Europe,” the Pentagon said. Moscow has been hoping that the US missile system would be withdrawn, since the Iranian deal signed by Tehran and the P5+1 on November 24 in Geneva. Once the nuclear program deal was signed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed the hope that the US would no longer have a reason to build the long-touted missile defense shield in Europe – if Iran fulfills its obligations. “If the Iran deal is put into practice, the stated reason for the construction of the defense shield will no longer apply,” Lavrov told journalists in Rome. In his annual address to the Federal Assembly on December 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that “any international problem can and must be solved through political means”. “Iran’s nuclear program once served as the key reason for deploying missile shields,” Putin said. “And what do we have now? Iran’s nuclear problem is fading, while the missile shield remains in place. Moreover, it is still developing.” Caught in Iskander’s crosshairs Just hours ahead of the Moscow-Washington videoconference between the defense ministers, the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed a German media report on the deployment of short-range Iskander missiles in the country’s western enclave of Kaliningrad, which is surrounded by NATO member countries. Moscow said it does not violate international agreements, but said that US ballistic missile defense deployments in Poland are now within the 500-kilometer range of Iskander missiles, which can be armed with a nuclear warhead. “The Iskander tactical ballistic missile systems are really in the inventory of the Russia’s Western military district’s missile and artillery forces,” Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov told journalists.

RIA Novosti – Russian Information Agency New Russian Ballistic Missile Sub to Join Fleet 17 December 2013 MOSCOW, December 17 (RIA Novosti) – The second new Borey class ballistic missile submarine will enter Russian Navy service on Saturday, a defense industry source has told RIA Novosti. Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 17 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama “The commissioning of the ship into the fleet, as well as a flag-raising ceremony on the ballistic missile submarine Alexander Nevsky, is planned for December 21,” the source told RIA. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu will attend the ceremony at the Sevmash shipyard in the northern city of Severodvinsk. The Defense Ministry said last month that delivery of the boat would be delayed until 2014 following the failure of an onboard missile system during sea trials in September. The malfunction was the latest in a string of eight failures of the new Bulava missile – developed for the new Borey class submarines – out of a total of 19 or 20 launches. The new Borey class boats are currently incapable of performing their primary role of nuclear deterrence while the Bulava has not yet been cleared for service, a navy command source said on November 1. The Alexander Nevsky, with a length of nearly two football fields, can carry sixteen Bulava missiles, each fitted with up to ten independently-targetable nuclear warheads. The first ship of the Borey class, the Yury Dolgoruky, entered service in January. Ballistic missile submarines comprise one leg of Russia’s strategic nuclear triad along with land-based ICBMs and the bomber force. The Borey is Russia’s first post-Soviet ballistic missile submarine class and will form the mainstay of the strategic submarine fleet, replacing aging Typhoon, Delta-3 and Delta-4 class boats. Russia ultimately expects eight of the type to enter service by 2020. The third boat in the class, the Vladimir Monomakh, is expected to be launched for manufacturer’s acceptance trials this month. http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20131217/185642767/New-Russian-Ballistic-Missile-Sub-to-Join-Fleet-.html Return to Top

RIA Novosti – Russian Information Agency Russian Missile Forces to Field New Heavy Missile by 2020 – Commander 17 December 2013 MOSCOW, December 17 (RIA Novosti) – Russia’s Strategic Missile Force will deploy a new heavy intercontinental ballistic missile no later than 2020, its commander said on Tuesday. “We are counting on introducing into the armory by 2018-2020 at the outside a new missile system with specifications not inferior to its predecessor,” Lt. Gen. Sergei Karakaev said. The new silo-based Sarmat ICBM will replace the world’s most powerful nuclear missile, the twenty-five-year-old R-36M2 (SS-18 Satan). Sarmat is expected to feature advanced countermeasures to enable it to penetrate missile defenses including a complex command and control system and a high degree of maneuverability, he said. The new system is just one of a number that will totally replace Soviet-era missiles by 2021, he said. “New hardware is arriving on time and by 2018 more than 80 percent of Russia’s strategic missile force will be comprised of the latest weapons,” Karakaev said. By 2018, Russian nuclear forces will be limited to 1,550 warheads and 700 total deployed strategic nuclear delivery systems including long-range missiles and bombers as part of the New START treaty signed with the United States in 2011. Karakaev called that number “necessary and sufficient” to maintain strategic nuclear parity with the US and other nuclear states.

Russia Beyond the Headlines – Russia Russia Needs about 1,500 Nuclear Warheads for Strategic Deterrence - Commander Interfax December 17, 2013 Russia needs about 1,500 nuclear warheads in its strategic nuclear forces, Russian Strategic Missile Troops (RVSN) Commander Col. Gen. Sergei Karakayev said. "It is necessary to have about 1,500 nuclear warheads in the shock troops of the Russian strategic nuclear forces in order to resolve tasks of strategic deterrence. The United States have approximately the same number," Karakayev said on the occasion of RVSN Day celebrated on December 17. This number is needed if one takes into account the approximate equality of warheads in the Russian Strategic Missile Troops and the U.S. strategic offensive forces and with consideration of "the level of strategic forces of other nuclear powers - the United Kingdom, France, China and nuclear weapons of new nuclear powers - India, Pakistan and others," Karakayev said. "The quantitative parameters of the strategic offences forces of Russia and the United States are stipulated in a new agreement on decreasing the strategic nuclear weapons," Karakayev said. "I will not give the exact numbers of rockets and warheads within the U.S. strategic offensive forces. I will just note that their quantitative decrease has been compensated by a comprehensive modernization and further improvement of rocket and special weapons of the entire strategic triad by giving them new qualities and characteristics. And Russia is aware of this," the general said. "As to nuclear forces of the UK, France and China, their development by the countries' military and political leadership does not depend on the negotiating process of Russia and the United States on nuclear disarmament," Karakayev said. http://rbth.ru/news/2013/12/17/russia_needs_about_1500_nuclear_warheads_for_strategic_deterrence_- _comm_32652.html Return to Top

RT (Russia Today) – Russia 'Nuclear Train' Returns: Russia to Deploy Rail-Based Missiles to Counter US 'Prompt Global Strike' December 18, 2013 Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces are preparing to revive railroad-based missiles and counter the US’s Conventional Prompt Global Strike concept. A blueprint of the modernized “nuclear train” will be presented in the first half of 2014.

The Moscow Times – Russia Putin Says Missiles Not Yet Deployed to Kaliningrad Region 19 December 2013 | Issue 5281 Reuters President Vladimir Putin sought to reassure the West about Russia's military movements on Thursday, saying Moscow had not yet decided whether to deploy Iskander missiles near NATO nations in the western exclave of Kaliningrad. Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 20 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama NATO nations and officials of the Western alliance voiced alarm over recent reports that Russia had deployed Iskanders, which have a range of about 400 kilometers and can carry nuclear warheads, in the region bordering Poland and Lithuania. Speaking at his annual news conference, Putin reiterated Moscow's position that an anti-missile shield that the U.S. is building in Europe, with help from NATO nations, poses a threat to Russia and that it must respond. "One of the possible responses is to deploy Iskander complexes in Kaliningrad … but I want to draw your attention to the fact that we have not yet made this decision yet, let them calm down." Nuclear-armed Russia says it fears the anti-missile shield, which is to include interceptor missiles based in Poland, is meant to undermine its security, upsetting the post-Cold War strategic balance. The U.S. says it is not directed against Russia and is meant to counter potential threats from the Middle East. In Warsaw on Thursday, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Polish counterpart, Radek Sikorski, for talks that touched upon the reports regarding Moscow's deployment of Iskander missiles in western Russia. Material from the Associated Press is included in this report. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-says-missiles-not-yet-deployed-to-kaliningrad- region/491893.html Return to Top

Al Jazeera America Iran Halts Technical-Level Nuclear Talks over US Sanctions Move Iranian officials say decision to blacklist additional companies 'unconstructive,' while US defends move December 13, 2013 Iran pulled out of technical-level denuclearization talks with six world powers Friday to protest the expansion of a U.S. blacklist of companies and individuals allegedly supporting Iran’s atomic program. Tehran said the U.S. move violates the spirit of last month’s groundbreaking agreement on Iran’s nuclear development. But the White House said the action taken Thursday to freeze the U.S. assets of firms and people in several other countries did not violate the agreement, and was based on existing sanctions. In the first major hurdle to the interim deal reached last month in Geneva, the United States targeted more than a dozen companies and individuals in Panama, Singapore, Ukraine and elsewhere for allegedly evading sanctions against Iran and maintaining covert business with Iran's national tanker company. Other companies the U.S. accused of being involved directly in the proliferation of material useful for weapons of mass destruction were also blacklisted from the U.S. market. American citizens are banned from any transactions with the blacklisted people and firms. The move was an effort by the Obama administration to show it will enforce existing laws, even as it presses Congress to hold off on additional measures while world powers pursue a comprehensive nuclear deal with Tehran. But the Iranians called Washington’s latest action "unconstructive and against good intentions," and accused the U.S. of sending mixed signals. "This is a game of double standards – it is not in accord with the talks we have had and it is against the spirit of the Geneva agreement," senior Iranian nuclear negotiator Abbas Araghchi told the official news agency IRNA. "On the one hand they tried to halt sanctions in Congress, and on the other hand they made a new move and the Treasury added new companies to the list." Araghchi, who is also deputy foreign minister, said the Iranians were assessing the situation to determine the proper response. IRNA also quoted an unnamed official as saying an Iranian team of experts had halted technical

The Economic Times – India Second Monkey Sent into Space, Says Iran's President Associated Press (AP) December 14, 2013 TEHRAN: Iran's president says the Islamic Republic has successfully sent a monkey into space for the second time, part of a program aimed at manned space flight. Hassan Rouhani's website said today that the rocket used liquid fuel for the first time. It did not say when the launch took place or give other details. Iran frequently claims technological breakthroughs that are impossible to independently verify. The Islamic Republic has said it seeks to send an astronaut into space as part of an ambitious aerospace program. Iran said that it sent its first monkey into space in January. One of two official packages of photos of the simian space traveler depicted the wrong monkey; however, raising doubts among international observers as to whether the launch was as successful as reported. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-12-14/news/45191190_1_hassan-rouhani-monkey-manned- space-flight Return to Top

The Voice of Russia – Russia 16 December 2013 Verified Compliance with IAEA Conditions Will Win Iran Sanctions Lifting – EU In the event the International Atomic Energy Agency concludes that Iran is complying with its latest agreements, with the Security Council’s Permanent Five plus Germany, concerning its nuclear energy programme, the EU will

Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 23 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama empower its foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton to start lifting the EU sanctions imposed on the country. The EU foreign ministers announced this at the end of their latest meeting in Brussels on Monday. European Union foreign ministers, meeting in Brussels, said the 28-nation bloc backed the Joint Plan of Action reached on November 24 in Geneva as "a long-awaited signal of the commitment of all sides to build trust and reduce tensions" over Iran's nuclear activities. The so-called P5+1 world powers that negotiated the accord with Iran (the United States, France, Britain, Russia, China and Germany) say it is a key first step that wards off the threat of military escalation in the volatile Middle East. "A swift implementation of the voluntary measures by all sides is now key," the EU ministers' statement said. "Iran has to implement its commitments in good faith. For its part, the (EU) Council is committed to take the necessary steps and to suspend those EU sanctions as set out in the Joint Plan of Action," it added. Those sanctions would be suspended after inspectors from the international watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, had verified the implementation of nuclear-related measures by Iran, the statement said. An EU official said the suspension would take place "as soon as possible" during a first six-month period which has not yet officially kicked in and which is to pave the way to a more long-lasting solution still to be negotiated. Under the Geneva deal, Tehran will limit uranium enrichment to low levels used only for civilian energy purposes. It will also neutralise its existing stockpile of uranium enriched to 20 percent, which is close to weapons-grade and therefore an area of top concern. Talks in Vienna last week on implementing the deal have however been interrupted for further consultations. Iranian state media reported that Tehran's negotiators had returned home after Washington blacklisted a dozen companies and individuals for evading US sanctions. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will be in Brussels on Tuesday to meet EU officials involved in the nuclear talks as well as the bloc's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. Senior US administration officials have said Washington's sanctions last week were part of the existing sanctions regime. In return for the freeze, the Islamic state will get some $7 billion (five billion euros) in sanctions relief in access to frozen funds and in its petrochemical, gold and precious metals and auto sectors. But the raft of international sanctions that have hobbled the Iranian economy remain untouched. Iran ready for more nuclear talks despite new US sanctions Iran has confirmed its readiness to hold another round of nuclear talks with international mediators despite the freezing of assets that belong to companies and individuals the US suspects of contacts with Iran, in what is a new attempt to strangle the country’s struggling economy. Writing on Facebook, Iran’s foreign chief Mohammad Javad Zarif said Sunday his country would continue Geneva talks. “We will show proper, calculated, purposeful and smart reaction toward any improper and unconstructive action.” Mr. Zarif also wrote that “talks and reaching a conclusion is a difficult job and it will definitely have ups and downs… We had predicted this from the first day.” The restrictions were piled Thursday on a number of Iranian firms and people who it said evaded current sanctions. Washington blamed the targeted companies for the proliferation of materials used for building weapons of mass destruction. The US also banned American citizens from any transactions with the listed individuals and firms. The US move comes as Republicans and Democrats in Congress have called for even tougher measures to raise the

The New York Times Chemical Weapons Agency Unveils Plan for Destroying Syria’s Stockpile By NICK CUMMING-BRUCE December 18, 2013 GENEVA — Helped by a flurry of offers from Russia and China as well as the United States and European countries, the international watchdog agency overseeing the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons unveiled details Wednesday of a multinational effort to get toxic agents out of the country but warned that the program faced delays. Following an offer from the United States last month to destroy the chemical weapons at sea, the Syrian government will start transporting hundreds of tons of toxic agents to the port of Latakia around the end of the year, according to a plan approved by the executive council of the watchdog, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. The removal starts a new phase in an agreement reached by Russia and the United States in September that calls for the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons capabilities by June. Despite initial doubts about the cooperation they could expect from President Bashar al-Assad’s government, international inspectors have confirmed that Syria has already destroyed the means of producing chemical weapons and the munitions for delivering them. But the proposal that Ahmet Uzumcu, director general of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, presented to the executive council in The Hague warned that “technical factors have caused delays regarding some aspects of removal operations and may also affect future implementation activities.” The plan was approved late Tuesday and announced on Wednesday. Russia has agreed to provide security for loading operations at Latakia’s port but has not said whether it intends to provide troops for that purpose, a European diplomat following developments at the agency said on the condition of anonymity, in line with diplomatic practice. “The plan now has a lot more offers and a lot more parts to it, but we are realistic that there will be challenges,” the diplomat said. Schedules have already been disrupted by a range of factors, including a lack of security in a country convulsed by civil war and bad weather, Mr. Uzumcu reported to the executive council on Tuesday. Clashes in the strategic Qalamoun area and along the key road from Damascus to Homs “pose risks to the timely execution of the operation,” he said. In an operation that would be sensitive under any circumstances and becomes particularly hazardous carried out in the middle of a civil war, the Syrian government will be responsible for packing, transporting and protecting the convoys carrying its deadly chemical agents from 12 sites around the country to Latakia, according to the plan Mr. Uzumcu presented. To mitigate the risks, Syria will use armored vehicles from Russia, thousands of special containers supplied by the United States, decontamination equipment and GPS locaters, the agency said. China will provide 10 ambulances and surveillance cameras and Finland has offered an emergency response team in case of accidents, the agency said. Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 25 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Denmark and Norway are providing two roll-on, roll-off ships to transport the chemical weapons and two naval vessels to escort them, and Russia and China have also agreed to provide naval escorts, the diplomat said. The cargo ships will link up at an unnamed port in Italy with the American vessel, the Cape Ray, which is being specially fitted with mobile laboratories for destroying the chemicals at sea. Italy’s offer to make the port available, received last week, avoids the risky task of trying to transfer the chemical agents on the high seas. In the meantime, Mr. Uzumcu said, the organization will seek offers from commercial companies on Thursday for destruction of the less toxic chemical agents and the effluent the Cape Ray’s operations will produce. The European diplomat said the agency had received 42 expressions of interest from commercial companies. The agency had previously planned to complete removal of Syria’s most deadly chemicals by the end of the year and all the remaining chemical weapons precursors by early February. It still hopes to finish those tasks by February, and Mr. Uzumcu is to meet the organization’s 41 council members again on Jan. 8 to update them. “The plan might slip by a few days,” the European diplomat said. “I don’t think any of us really knows how big the delay is likely to be.” http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/19/world/middleeast/syria-chemical-weapons.html?_r=0 Return to Top

The Jerusalem Post – Israel Zarif: Iran Can Resume 20% Enrichment in Less than 24 Hours As technical talks with Tehran are set to resume in Geneva, Iranian foreign minister says nuclear program will continue; no sanctions will be eased until a nuclear agreement is implemented, says Western diplomat. By MICHAEL WILNER IN WASHINGTON, JPOST.COM STAFF 19 December 2013 Iran can resume 20 percent uranium enrichment in less than 24 hours, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said a day before the resumption of talks in Geneva on how to implement an interim nuclear deal aimed at temporarily freezing Iran’s nuclear program. Zarif told Iranian students on Wednesday that the agreement signed between the Islamic Republic and six world powers on November 24 in Geneva recognizes Tehran's nuclear program, and assured them the program will continue. He also noted that "the structure of the sanctions and the antagonistic atmosphere created by the West against Iran is falling apart," accord to Fars. Negotiations are set to resume in Geneva on Thursday between Iran and the P5+1 world powers on how to implement the Geneva deal. Iranian officials paused the talks last week due to an increase in sanctions pressure from the United States. An international corps of nuclear and sanctions experts will attend the meeting in Vienna, where the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency is based. The IAEA will take part in the implementation of the interim deal reached in Geneva on November 24, which is supposed to effectively freeze Tehran’s nuclear progress – both its uranium enrichment and its construction of a heavy-water plutonium plant – in exchange for modest sanctions relief. “It’s in the interests of the Iranians to go quickly, because there won’t be an easing of sanctions until the agreement is implemented,” a senior Western diplomat said. In a sign of this interest, deputy Iranian chief negotiator Abbas Araqchi said the expert talks were set for two days but might continue into Saturday and Sunday if required, according to Fars. The US blacklisted an additional 19 companies last week that it said violated sanctions against trading with Iran. Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 26 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama While acknowledging that the designations were not new sanctions per se, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the move violated the spirit of the Geneva accord. Diplomats in Vienna said the UN nuclear agency could face costs of roughly €5 million ($6.9m.) to verify that Iran lived up to the deal. The 35-nation governing board of the IAEA is expected to hold an extraordinary meeting next month to discuss its expanded role. The extra cost is unlikely to create any major difficulty in view of the importance of resolving the dispute. However, diplomats accredited to the agency said it could be sensitive as IAEA director- general Yukiya Amano would likely need to seek member states to help to pay for more inspections in Iran and to find some of the money internally. The IAEA’s budget for 2014 is around €344m. The IAEA – tasked with preventing the spread of nuclear weapons – regularly inspects Iranian nuclear sites in an effort to make sure there is no diversion of atomic material for military purposes. But it will step up the frequency of its visits to the uranium enrichment sites of Natanz and Fordow under the Geneva agreement and carry out other additional tasks in inspecting nuclear-linked facilities. The agency has two to four staff in Iran almost every day of the year, with some 20 dedicated to inspector activity there, but that number is now likely to rise. Reuters contributed to this report. http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/Zarif-Iran-can-resume-20-percent-enrichment-in-less-than-24-hours- 335477 Return to Top

The New York Times Iran, Six World Powers Resume Expert Talks on Nuclear Deal By REUTERS December 19, 2013 GENEVA/BRUSSELS — Iran and six world powers resumed expert-level talks in Geneva on Thursday to work out how to put into practice a landmark deal obliging Tehran to curb its nuclear program in return for some relief from economic sanctions. Discussions on the implementation details of last month's breakthrough accord were interrupted by Tehran diplomats last week, after a decision by the United States to blacklist 19 more Iranian companies and individuals. But diplomats said much progress had been achieved in the four-day meeting on December 9-12 in Vienna and expressed hope they could wrap up the practical discussions at meetings in Geneva on Thursday and Friday. That could mean the seven countries - the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain, Germany and Iran - would be ready to agree on a date when the accord goes fully into effect. Specifically, they would decide when western governments ease sanctions and how much prior verification of any Iranian curbs of its most sensitive nuclear work would be needed ahead of time. Diplomats have said their target time frame was the second half of January, possibly on the day of the next meeting of EU foreign ministers on January 20, who could approve easing of EU sanctions. "We were at an advanced stage in Vienna," said a diplomat from one of the six world powers. "A lot of work has been done so we can go very fast."

Jerusalem Post – Israel 'Iran Has Nuclear Fuel Reserve to Last Four Years' Iranian nuclear chief says six-month freeze won't hinder the country's nuclear program; "Iran is the winner of the Geneva deal," Salehi adds. By JPOST.COM STAFF 20 December 2013 Iran has a reserve of nuclear fuel that would last four years, the head of the country's Atom Energy Organization said, as technical talks continued in Vienna Friday on the implementation of a deal meant to freeze the Islamic Republic's nuclear program for six months.

United Press International (UPI).com New Head Appointed to Take Charge of Pakistan's Nuclear Assets December 19, 2013 ISLAMABAD, Dec. 19 (UPI) -- Pakistan appointed Lt. Gen. Zubair Mahmood Hayat to head the department responsible for developing and protecting the country's nuclear assets. The Defense Ministry said Hayat, currently commander of the Bahawalpur Corps, will take over as director general of the Strategic Plans Division, ending a long wait to find a suitable successor to Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai, who is retiring. The division also is in charge of the country's missile program.

Russia Beyond the Headlines – Russia Should Russia Fear the U.S. 'Prompt Global Strike'? Russian officials have expressed their sharp criticism towards the U.S. plans for the so-called "Prompt Global Strike" initiative. Are they justified? By Konstantin Bogdanov, RIA Novosti December 16, 2013 What does this "Prompt Global Strike" represent, how can it interfere with the Russian plans and how can it be opposed? Around the world in 60 minutes The U.S. military adopted the concept of the Prompt Global Strike (PGS) during the 2000s. The basis of the idea is the ability to make a non-nuclear attack anywhere in the world within an hour after a decision is made to strike. How can we solve this problem? The first components of PGS, the most realistic in its execution, are conventional intercontinental ballistic missiles equipped with high-precision, non-nuclear warheads. The second component of PGS facilities can be strategic cruise missiles with hypersonic speeds. The third component of PGS is kinetic weapons, or “wands of the Lord,” which is the ironic nickname for this weapon, widely described in fiction but still not implemented in practice. Quick delivery targets The United States is not making the PGS targets a secret; they have been described in Pentagon statements. But who are the PGS facilities created for? First, they are mobile and stationary ballistic missile launchers, command centers and other nuclear facilities. Secondly, they are "facilities isolating military operations” – launchers of tactical missiles as well as antiaircraft missiles, obstructing the standard air-ground or air-sea operations. Thirdly, it is the terrorist infrastructure – in this case the use of PGS is not any different from the strikes made from unmanned aircrafts. China, North Korea and Iran are named as the owners of this infrastructure, and in the third paragraph it says that it is "international terrorism." At the same time, Russia has many facilities isolating military operations, as well as mobile missile launchers, and therefore it cannot be excluded from the list of possible PGS targets. It is clear that a similar attack is fraught with risks of nuclear escalation and full-scale retaliation against the United States. However, on the basis of this sole thesis, it is impossible to conclude that PGS does not threaten Russia.

Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 30 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Risk assessment The biggest part of PGS is, of course, the ballistic missiles equipped with precision nonnuclear warheads. The idea was one of the first ones, and it was also one of the last ones to become the subject of skepticism. In fact, the non-nuclear ICBMs have a number of drawbacks. Mainly because all the systems of missile warning and missile defense information tools are detected as this type of objects (as well as warheads after their division). And if this does not matter during operations conducted as PGS against a third world country, as soon as it comes to a potential enemy such as Russia or even China, things get much worse. It does not say on the intercontinental missile which equipment it has, and, strictly speaking, during a the mass start of such missiles any country’s government has all the capabilities of organizing a retaliatory strike, i.e. of launching their missiles (already with the nuclear equipment), without waiting for the arrival of unexpected guests. From the point of view of the principles of nuclear strategy and international security in general, this is a very bad option, hence the reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry. "If we are talking about existing ballistic carriers with conventional equipment, it is clearly the path to the escalation of the conflict with the hardest, in fact, apocalyptic consequences," said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. That is why the main focus of development of PGS facilities was redirected to the hypersonic aircraft. This topic is more complex in terms of its engineering and physical design and implementation process, however, the resulting facilities are more flexible, versatile and more promising. It is necessary to understand the capabilities of modern air defense systems. The Top Russian ADMS – S-300PMU-2 Favorit and S-400, are capable of striking targets moving at speeds of up to 2,800 and up to 4,500 meter per second, respectively. This is on a hypersonic level, however, the same prototype of Falcon HTV-2 attains a speed of up to 7,800 meter per second, which is comparable with speeds of military intercontinental missiles at the terminal stage of their trajectory. The endoatmospheric 53T6 interceptor missiles from the BMDS A-135 Amur can attack objects with a similar speed, but they are deployed only in the Moscow industrial area and their number is limited to a few dozen. As for the facilities of the kinetic destruction, the question of their deployment and a creation of defense facilities against them cannot be solved tomorrow. In any case, the orbiting of such systems will trigger a new arms race, coupled with the creation of space-based weapons, and possibly a return to the orbital system of nuclear bombing, the first samples of which were tested in the late ‘60s and subsequently prohibited by the 1979 SALT 2 Treaty. In the conditions of reducing the threat of global nuclear war since 1991 and, at the same time, a distinct lowering of the threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons, the full deployment of PGS can significantly complicate the maintenance of strategic stability. This explains the sharp reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry. First published in Russian by RIA Novosti. http://rbth.ru/science_and_tech/2013/12/16/should_russia_fear_the_us_prompt_global_strike_32645.html Return to Top

Pravda.ru OPINION/Article How Can Russia Ensure Military Parity? By Lyuba Lulko 16 December 2013

Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 31 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama "No one will achieve military superiority over Russia," President Vladimir Putin said in his speech to the Federal Assembly on December 12th. The President noted that there were concerns over the development of new types of weapons that can disrupt the existing balance of power. Russia is closely monitoring these efforts, but what can it oppose to them? "The development of such weapons can break all the agreements reached earlier. It can upset the balance of power. We understand this very well," Putin said. "The development of new weapons systems, such as low power nuclear explosive devices, non-nuclear strategic missile performance, hypersonic non-nuclear precision systems for short time strikes at a longer range raise concerns," Putin said. This is the third such statement made recently. Earlier Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov expressed their concerns. They strongly criticized the U.S. initiative "Prompt Global Strike" (PGS). The essence of this idea was outlined by Putin. The system enables non-nuclear strikes at any point of the globe no later than 60 minutes after making a respective decision by using new types of high-precision long-range missiles and hypersonic weapons. According to the concept, the strike will instantly "decapitate" the enemy's infrastructure, including strategic missile silos, communication centers, and government buildings, thus avoiding massive retaliation in the form of a nuclear strike with intercontinental ballistic missiles. The PGS concept emerged early this century, but in recent years the Americans have moved from the development of the new types of weapons to their tests. Hypersonic missile X-51A Waverider was successfully tested twice - in 2011 and in May of this year. Spacecraft FHTV-2 was designed, as well as a sample of an intercontinental ballistic missile based on Minuteman with a conventional warhead. Furthermore, an important organizational factor was resolved, and Air Force Global Strike Command - AFGSC that will coordinate the PGS group was created. The unit already has 450 missile systems under its supervision, including ballistic missiles "Trident-2" in the future with non-nuclear warheads equipment. By 2015, maneuvering warheads mounted on ballistic missiles will be created and managed. By 2020, unmanned weapons transonic and hypersonic missiles with a range of 1,500 km are expected to be put in service. Later (2020-2035) there are plans to produce a manned strategic bomber with an extra-long range up to 17 thousand kilometers, and aerospace systems capable of sending missiles to low altitude orbits (similar to FHTV- 2). These tasks of increasing capacity of the precision strategic systems are implemented in the U.S. along with increased capacity of missile defense systems, including in Europe. "We are well aware that the missile defense systems are defensive only in their name. In fact, it is an essential part of the strategic offensive potential (of the USA)," Putin said. Although the concept of PGS provides for a non-nuclear strike, it is designed for use in small and micro nukes. Thus, when maintaining the strategic nuclear shield for the Russian Federation, the issue of modernizing its air defenses to destroy hypersonic missiles and adequate development of its high-precision weapons capable of carrying nuclear small capacity warheads come to the forefront. "There is an ongoing developing of new missiles for land, sea or air. The work on long-range aviation was commenced," Putin said at a meeting of the Federal Assembly. "First of all I would note Almaz-Antey concern developing a new anti-aircraft missile of fifth generation air defense system S-500, capable of hitting targets not only in air, but in the near space," told the Voice of Russia chief editor of National Defense Igor Korotchenko. However, many military experts say that Russia's air defense system has limited ability to detect hypersonic missiles and there is still a lot of work to be done. "Another focus is the creation of high-precision weapons like Club rocket for submarines and surface ships. In the field of aviation the main developer of precision weapons is "Tactical Missiles" corporation. These are long-range cruise missiles, carriers of nuclear charges for strategic aviation, for Tu- 5 MS and Tu-160. The corporation is also developing new missiles for the Russian fifth generation fighter T-50," said Korochenko. The new missile K- 77m air-to-air for the T-50 has no analogues in the world, and its production is scheduled for 2015. The missile will have an advanced targeting system that will enable it to respond instantly to its sharp turns and make it virtually impossible to intercept.

Russia Beyond the Headlines – Russia OPINION/Commentary Iskander in Kaliningrad is a Vestige of the Cold War There is nothing strange in the fact that Russia has placed tactical missile complex Iskander on the borders of the European Union. It was bound to happen, political expert Fyodor Lukyanov says. By Fyodor Lukyanov, Kommersant December 17, 2013 Russian leaders have promised several times to set Iskander, it’s tactical missile complex, on the boarders of the European Union in response to a European missile defense. So, it’s no surprise that they are saying it again. Discussion on European security is depressing. The world is changing: Europe is becoming a strategic periphery. There are serious contradictions in East Asia. Beijing's announcement that the East China Sea is the control zone of air defense has caused a tumult not just in the region. The Korean peninsula is in constant tension and on high alert because of North Korea, whose missiles are aimed to South Korea. The influential uncle of the North Korean leader has been shot, and everyone is wondering what is going to happen now. There is nothing to say about the Middle East, where at any hour the redrawing of borders will begin in Syria, Iraq, and then everywhere. Against this background, Russia and NATO continue to frown at each other and exchange symbolic gestures. Let me suggest that even the most convinced hawks in the Pentagon or on Arbat Square cannot imagine that armed conflict will break out in Europe with the participation of the great powers. And, incidentally, that is why they begin to act so quietly, not looking at the possible consequences: placing American missile defense system in Europe or answering to that step by installing missile systems along the responsibility zone of the Alliance. If it would be a real confrontation, they would think a hundred times whether it is risky or not. Professional and military strategists tend to look to the past - they are preparing for war, which they know, and see the enemy, which they expect. Russia does it at least honestly, while the United States does that camouflaging nostalgia for the Cold War by a mythical Iranian missile threat, which President Vladimir Putin mentioned in his annual address to the Federal Assembly.

The Heritage Foundation.org OPINION/ Issue Brief #4111 China’s Strategic Capabilities and Intent By Rebeccah Heinrichs December 18, 2013 Over the past year, the Chinese have been steadily improving their strategic military capabilities. It is becoming clearer that China is developing and building capabilities to have an impact beyond Asia; indeed, recent developments indicate that China is preparing a force meant to challenge and deter the United States. China’s Nuclear Policy: Official and Otherwise Since first testing a nuclear weapon in 1964, China has held an official “no first use” policy regarding nuclear weapons, meaning that Beijing would use nuclear weapons only in response to a nuclear attack. But over the years, China’s strategic forces have expanded and improved. Moreover, China has become more aggressive both in its rhetoric and in its military responses to territorial disputes. In April, the Chinese Ministry of Defense released a regular white paper*1+ on China’s official defense policy that did not mention the “no first use” policy. Official government spokesmen have publicly stated that the long-standing policy has not changed, but the omission is worth noting. Additionally, Chinese rhetoric involving nuclear weapons has become increasingly more provocative. In October, Chinese government-run media reports outlined various hypothetical plans regarding how China would attack the United States with nuclear weapons. It is not a surprise that China would be war-gaming scenarios, but what is worth noting is that the government decided to make such plans public and in such a provocative and detailed manner. While the Pentagon has reported and military spokesmen have testified to Chinese advancement, it is also true that those same officials have admitted to having only limited knowledge of Chinese missile and nuclear weapons capabilities due to Beijing’s lack of transparency. China’s Second Artillery has built more than 3,000 miles of tunnels known as “The Underground Great Wall.” More elements of China’s missile and nuclear programs are likely concealed within those tunnels.[2] Recent Developments in Capabilities The U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission has confirmed China’s continued investment in its military.*3+ China’s official public defense budget for 2013 rose 10.7 percent over 2012. This, according to the commission, is “signaling the new leadership’s support for the *Chinese military’s+ ongoing modernization efforts. China’s official annual defense budget now has increased for 22 consecutive years and more than doubled since 2006. The Institute of International Strategic Studies assesses China’s actual defense spending is 40 to 50 percent higher than the official figure.” The Department of Defense Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2013*4+ has reported that a significant element of China’s military modernization program is

Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 34 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama dedicated to its ballistic missile fleet. Indeed, China has the largest and most active ballistic missile program in the world. The Chinese are working on a diverse array of offensive missile capabilities, including submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). The Pentagon report states that China currently has three operational nuclear-missile submarines (known as SSBNs) and that it could add five more to the fleet by the end of the next decade before it begins its next-generation SSBN. Each of these submarines is equipped with 12 missile launch tubes. The National Air and Space Intelligence Center has revealed that China will soon be patrolling with a new SLBM, which would “for the first time, allow Chinese SSBNs to target portions of the United States from operating areas located near the Chinese coast.”*5+ The Chinese intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) fleet has also seen steady investment and improvement. Not only is China investing in new ICBMs; it is also ensuring that they are capable of carrying multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles. The U.S.–China Commission report also indicates that in May 2013, China fired a missile into nearly geo- synchronous earth orbit, “marking the highest known suborbital launch since the U.S. Gravity Probe A in 1976 and China’s highest known suborbital launch to date.” The commission report also notes that this was a test for an anti-satellite capability.[6] In 2007, China successfully destroyed an aging orbiting satellite with an anti-satellite ballistic missile.[7] This capability is most dangerous to the United States, since the U.S. is the country with the greatest dependence on space. The most immediate result was that the collision created thousands of pieces of space debris in orbit, putting at risk U.S. and ally space satellites. Concerns Regarding Chinese Proliferation China continues to participate in the weapons of mass destruction market. A 2010 U.S. government report concluded that “Chinese entities continue to supply a variety of missile related items to multiple customers including Iran, Syria and Pakistan.”*8+ China’s well-documented cooperation on Pakistan’s nuclear program continues to be a serious problem and raises questions regarding whether the Chinese government knew about the A. Q. Kahn network, which sold uranium enrichment technology to Iran, Syria, and Libya.[9] In April 2012, then-Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta confirmed that China had provided some assistance to North Korea’s ballistic missile program, which is a violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions from 2006 and 2009. What Should Be Done U.S. failure to recognize and respond to Chinese strategic direction and capabilities is unacceptable. In order to prevent conflict in the future, the U.S. should:  Modernize and maintain a robust nuclear weapons force, including warheads, nuclear weapons facilities, and delivery vehicles.[10] President Obama has already decreased the number of U.S. nuclear weapons and is attempting further cuts. He has also failed to live up to his promise to the Senate to modernize the existing force. If foes and allies begin to doubt the U.S. nuclear credibility, the result could be increased proliferation or a buildup in countries like China. As General Robert Kehler has said, “It is not possible to accurately determine the precise level or conditions at which the PRC leadership might elect to attempt to match the U.S. nuclear inventory.”*11+  Invest in research and development programs. The U.S. cannot leave its space assets undefended. Space is also the ultimate vantage point for intercepting ballistic missiles in their boost phase of flight, providing the U.S. with a national security advantage for combating Chinese sophisticated ballistic missiles.  Publicly denounce Chinese proliferation and aggressive rhetoric. The U.S. should enforce the 2000 Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Act and support the sovereignty of U.S. allies.[12]

Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 35 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama  Strengthen ballistic missile defense with U.S. allies. China has voiced strong opposition to U.S. missile defense cooperation with Japan and South Korea, but this should not dissuade the U.S. from continuing to strengthen its relationships with those two important allies.  Refuse to pursue a comprehensive international “code of conduct” for space activities.[13] A code of conduct would limit U.S. ability to test space weapons and employ space combat doctrines. The threat to U.S. security from Chinese missiles is real and growing. The U.S. should have complete freedom to use space to defend against this threat.[14] Prevent Conflict and Preserve Peace China is most immediately concerned with protecting its perceived right to massive and disputed swaths of territory,[15] but it understands that the U.S. could intervene in these regional disputes and is proactively preparing to deter and if need be confront the U.S. militarily. Washington should not single-mindedly decrease its nuclear force, nor should it focus merely on threats from rogue nations; rather, it should remain unwavering in its commitment to its allies in Asia, in particular regarding missile defense cooperation. The U.S. should proactively deter and defend against real, growing, and sophisticated militaries. Rebeccah Heinrichs is a Visiting Fellow in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a department of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. Notes *1+News release, “The Diversified Employment of China’s Armed Forces,” People’s Republic of China, Information Office of the State Council, April 16, 2013, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013- 04/16/c_132312681.htm (accessed November 15, 2013). *2+Wendell Minnick, “New U.S. Law Seeks Answers on Chinese Nuke Tunnels,” Defense News, January 5, 2013, http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130105/DEFREG02/301050003/ (accessed November 15, 2013). [3]U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2013 Annual Report to Congress, November 20, 2013. [4]U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2013, http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2013_china_report_final.pdf (accessed November 15, 2013). [5]National Air and Space Intelligence Center, Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat, 2013, http://www.afisr.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-130710-054.pdf (accessed December 11, 2013). [6]U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2013 Annual Report to Congress. *7+Senator Jon Kyl, “Chinese Anti-Satellite Weapons and American Security,” Heritage Foundation Lecture No. 990, February 1, 2007, http://www.heritage.org/research/lecture/chinas-anti-satellite-weapons-and-american- national-security. [8]Deputy Director of National Intelligence, Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions, 2010. *9+Shirley A. Kan, “China and Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missiles: Policy Issues,” Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, March 11, 2013, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL31555.pdf (accessed November 15, 2013). [10]For more information, see Rebeccah Heinrichs and Baker Spring, “Deterrence and Nuclear Targeting in the 21st Century,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2747, November 30, 2012, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/11/deterrence-and-nuclear-targeting-in-the-21st-century. [11]Congressman Michael Turner, remarks at the International Security and Strategy Center, June 28, 2012.

The Diplomat – Japan OPINION/Article Is North Korea Preparing Its Fourth Nuclear Test? While the possibility cannot be ruled out, there’s little reason to believe another nuclear test is imminent. By Zachary Keck December 19, 2013 On Tuesday a senior South Korean lawmaker warned that a number of signs suggest that North Korea is preparing for another long-range missile and fourth nuclear test. Yonhap News Agency reports that at a meeting of the ruling Saenuri Party, Rep. Cho Won-jin, a ranking member of the Intelligence Committee, suggested that another long-range rocket and nuclear test might be conducted in order to shift domestic attention away from the purge of Jang Song-thaek, the uncle of current leader Kim Jong-Un and formerly the second most powerful man in Pyongyang. Cho did not elaborate on what these signs were making it unclear if there is actual technical evidence that North Korea is preparing for another missile or nuclear test. In recent months, South Korean leaders have said that Pyongyang is ready to conduct a fourth nuclear test and could do so in short order once a decision is made to take this action. South Korean President Park Geun-hye has also warned about possible provocations coming from the North following the purge. Although South Korean leaders are likely correct in stating that North Korea is capable of conducting another nuclear test, Pyongyang is believed to only possess a handful of nuclear devices and a limited amount of fissile material to replace devices used in tests. At the same time, it has restarted its plutonium reactor in Yongbyon and is believed to be enriching uranium both of which could help replenish its stocks of fissile material. A missile and nuclear test would also make sense from the perspective of Kim Jong-Un’s current desire to court the military. Although his tenure has been characterized by cautious attempts to move away from his father’s military first policies, many observers fear that the purge of Jang could reverse this process. North Korean leaders reaffirmed the wisdom of Kim Jong-il’s military first policy at events this week commiserating the second anniversary of his death in 2011. At the very least, Kim Jong-Un needs the military’s full support in the likely scenario that he seeks to purge Jang’s wide-network of supporters from across the North Korean government. In this sense, new missile and nuclear tests would make sense. At the same time, while it is commonly asserted that North Korea’s external provocations are motivated largely by the country’s domestic political situation, it’s far from certain that this is actually the case. North Korea’s decision to end its long-standing moratorium on long-range rocket tests in 2006, and to conduct its first nuclear test that Issue No.1095, 20 December 2013 United States Air Force Counterproliferation Center| Maxwell AFB, Alabama http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CPC Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226 37 USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama same year, seemed to be motivated primarily by Pyongyang’s desire to get particularly pointed U.S. sanctions removed. Meanwhile, North Korea’s missile and second nuclear test in April and May 2009 appeared to be motivated by the breakdown in six-party talks at the end of 2008, as well as the U.S. decision to halt heavy fuel shipments to North Korea as a result of this breakdown. Additionally, some observers believed Pyongyang simply wanted to test the new U.S. administration in Washington. North Korea’s most recent round of rocket and nuclear tests at the end of last year and the beginning of this year coincided with leadership transitions in China, South Korea and Japan, as well as the reelection of Barack Obama in the United States. North Korea has strong technical interests in continuing to test long-range missiles and nuclear devices as it seeks to acquire a reliable, operational nuclear deterrent. As Jennifer Lind, Keir Lieber and Daryl Press pointed out after the third nuclear test, while speculation that the tests are motivated by a desire to send signals to domestic or foreign audiences, “A much simpler explanation exists. Pyongyang tested a nuclear device for the same reason it has been testing long-range missile designs: to see what works. In truth, the effort was less a signal than an attempt to master the technical capabilities that are vital to its nuclear deterrent.” They point out that such an explanation would hardly make North Korea unique; the U.S., Soviet Union and many other nuclear powers conducted thousands of tests during the Cold War to ensure their nuclear deterrents were reliable. It’s worth noting that a missile or nuclear test are not the only options Kim Jong-Un has available to him to engage in external provocations in an effort to appease the military. This week North Korea has been reinforcing a military buildup along its western coast and dropped leaflets threatening to annihilate troops stationed on Baeknyeong Island. In 2010, North Korean forces shelled Yeonpyeong Island. In short, while we can’t rule out the possibility that a North Korean missile and nuclear test is imminent, there’s generally not much cause for concern absent technical evidence suggesting that North Korea is preparing for one. If North Korea does decide to engage in this action, however, expect it to first conduct a long-range missile test (which it will call a rocket test), wait for the international community’s reaction, and then use this response to justify a fourth nuclear weapons test. Zachary Keck is Associate Editor of The Diplomat. http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/is-north-korea-preparing-its-fourth-nuclear-test/ Return to Top

ABOUT THE USAF CPC The USAF Counterproliferation Center was established in 1998 at the direction of the Chief of Staff of the Air Force. Located at Maxwell AFB, this Center capitalizes on the resident expertise of Air University, while extending its reach far beyond - and influences a wide audience of leaders and policy makers. A memorandum of agreement between the Air Staff Director for Nuclear and Counterproliferation (then AF/XON), now AF/A5XP) and Air War College Commandant established the initial manpower and responsibilities of the Center. This included integrating counterproliferation awareness into the curriculum and ongoing research at the Air University; establishing an information repository to promote research on counterproliferation and nonproliferation issues; and directing research on the various topics associated with counterproliferation and nonproliferation. In 2008, the Secretary of Defense's Task Force on Nuclear Weapons Management recommended that "Air Force personnel connected to the nuclear mission be required to take a professional military education (PME) course on national, defense, and Air Force concepts for deterrence and defense." As a result, the Air Force Nuclear Weapons School, in coordination with the AF/A10 and Air Force Global Strike Command, established a series of courses at Kirtland AFB to provide continuing education through the careers of those Air Force personnel working in or supporting the nuclear enterprise. This mission was transferred to the CPC in 2012, broadening its mandate to providing education and research to not just countering WMD but also nuclear deterrence.