“International Seminar” The Changing Nature of Future Warfare

Event Report

March 14, 2020

CENTRE for AEROSPACE & SECURITY STUDIES Table of Contents

1. Concept Note ...... Error! Bookmark not defined. 2. Event Promotional Campaign ...... Error! Bookmark not defined. Infographics ...... 6 Web Campaign ...... 7 Mobile Application ...... 8 3. Executive Summary ...... 9 4. Brief of the Conference ...... 11 5. Profiles of the Speakers ...... 16 6. Conference Program ...... 19 7. Graphical Representation of the Participants ...... 20 Breakdown of the Participants List ...... 20 8. Publications ...... 21 9. Picture Gallery of the Conference ...... 22 10. Media Coverage ...... 26

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Concept Note

The geostrategic compulsions and modern technologies have brought significant doctrinal changes in the conduct of warfare. Kinetic, as well as non-kinetic means of warfare, continue to remain relevant, albeit in newer ways in an endeavour to adapt to technological advancements. Moreover, men and material costs associated with regular warfare, new weapons and use of aerospace for military purposes have led to emerging concepts of warfare. The aerospace sector is one of the major beneficiaries of technological innovations. Driven by a fiercely competitive civil and military requirements, industrially advanced countries continue to pursue aerospace programme through public- private partnerships. While civil utilization of aerospace for agriculture, education natural sciences etc. contributes towards economic development, the military use of aerospace with ever-expanding role of aircraft, ballistic missiles, satellites, anti- satellite systems and Laser / directed energy weapons etc. presents multiple employment options, as well as unforeseen challenges. Aerospace power can substantiate deterrence, compellence, denial, coercion and decapitation strategies. Advanced warfare studies reveal that it would not be possible to influence future conflicts without the use of aerospace assets. The other two important aspects of changing nature of future warfare include hybrid and cyber warfare. Hybrid war is emerging as the preferred option for achieving national objectives with the combined use of kinetic and non-kinetic means. The synchronized use of multiple centres of power, spearheaded by intelligence agencies against adversary’s key vulnerabilities in political, economic, diplomatic and societal areas etc. using irregular forces and unconventional methods helps achieve synergetic effects. Owing to its peculiar nature, Hybrid warfare is a textbook case of ‘the whole being greater than the sum of its parts’. Mass communications and social media have become the most significant components for the success or failure of Hybrid Warfare. By combining kinetic operations with subversive efforts, the aggressor intends to avoid attribution or retribution. Hybrid warfare can be used to describe the flexible and complex dynamics of the battlespace requiring a highly adaptable and resilient response.

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Pakistan has been facing a hybrid war and requires a comprehensive strategy to effectively counter the threat. The digital age is witnessing unprecedented progress, providing an ever-increasing number of people with digital technology, greater connectivity, and bringing new opportunities. Dependence on computers and networks has exposed these systems to hostile state, as well as non-state actors to penetrate for the purposes of causing damage or disruption. Satellites and other space assets, just like other parts of the digitized critical infrastructure, are vulnerable to cyber-attacks. With each passing day, the cybersecurity landscape is becoming more complex due to ever-emerging newer threats and cyber vulnerabilities. This aspect poses serious risks for ground-based critical infrastructure, and in turn increasing challenges to society, economic activity and national defence. Additionally, as a result of the rapid pace of development, the introduction of newer technologies often outpaces the establishment of state institutions, legal regulations, and other mechanisms that could help manage the arising challenges. While the benefits of better connectivity cannot be denied, there is a need to study the vulnerabilities emerging from digitalization; especially for the developing countries to counter associated pitfalls. Thus there is a need for studying future developments and the changing nature of warfare including the aviation sector, cyber and hybrid warfare.

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Event Promotional Campaign

 An extensive promotional campaign was launched to publicise the event. The programme was displayed at the CASS website 15 days prior to the event, and social media such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn and YouTube were used to spread the word.  The event was live broadcasted on all social media platforms  CASS brochures, along with a booklet containing the seminar programme, speakers’ bio was sent along with the invitation cards.  A small booklet along with a notebook were given to all participants. The speakers and management were presented an aircraft model, lanyards with a printed badge and a seminar brooch.  30 printed standees displaying different themes of the seminar were placed in and outside the event hall. Six Electronic display screens were also used as standees using 30 different designs for display.  A Media Wall consisting of large LEDs was installed to publicise CASS team of experts and publications and activities such as pictures from previous conferences and seminars,  3 SMD screens were used for the background display along with 2 side banners.  During the event, various media tools were used to advertise and ensure a wider outreach. There were 60 representatives from electronic and print media. Apart from live coverage by leading news channels such as PTV World, PTV News and ARY News, the event was transmitted live at various online channels. Event highlights were live tweeted from the CASS Twitter and Facebook handle besides individual tweets by the CASS team and the participants.  A short documentary of the seminar was prepared to be used as a promotional video on the CASS website and for display during future events.  Short videos of the speakers and daily highlights of the events were also broadcasted.  The Chief Guest and the guest speakers were presented CASS souvenirs. 5

Infographics

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Web Campaign

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Mobile Application

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Executive Summary

The Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies, Islamabad held an international seminar entitled “The Changing Nature of Future Warfare” on March 14, 2020, at Serena Hotel, Islamabad. Air Chief Marshal (Retired) Kaleem Saadat while introducing the activities of CASS said that it was working on global challenges and analysing destabilizing transitions. While explaining the subject of the seminar, he described the significance of Pakistan's location at the crossroads of three strategically important regions of the world -South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia and how the changing modes of warfare were impacting the region. He also highlighted Pakistan’s instrumental role in facilitating the Afghan peace process and the help it extended to avert an impending crisis in the Middle East by playing a mediator role between Saudi Arabia and Iran. He also talked about the development in the aerospace sector and the country’s ability to take on the challenges arising from the threats of cyber and hybrid warfare.

Air Vice Marshal Faiz spoke on the role of aerospace in South Asia and highlighted future challenges, which included weaponization of space and cyber warfare. According to him, India was seeking primacy in shaping the new world order through military modernization and its ambitious space plan. Referring to previous year’s surgical strikes, AVM Faiz was of the view that airpower had become a weapon of choice in achieving political objectives. According to him, the future threats would not come from WMD, but from cyber attacks.

Lt Gen Amir stated that the hybrid war had posed a dilemma and made war more complex - blurring the lines between military and non-military means. According to him, the world had reached a point where man’s imagination and technological developments were complimenting each other. He added that principles of combat were under stress, thus making it imperative to re-write the rules of war. In his considered view, the main target of hybrid war was to break political consensus in Pakistan, and that we must preserve.

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Jorge Sebastio, the Chief Technology Officer of Huawei Middle East and European Union stressed upon the importance of a good vision to defend oneself. Noting that cyber warfare was a global phenomenon, he emphasised that it was taking place in a regional context. According to him, despite being less in number, the impact of cyber attacks was quite large as they acted against the country’s critical assets. The Foreign Minister of Pakistan Shah Mahmood Qureshi was the Chief Guest of the seminar. Talking on Pakistan’s vision for peace and stability, he said that Pakistan’s geo-political location as a pivot between South and Central Asia and the Middle East and China was both a blessing and a challenge. It was a blessing because it gave Pakistan the salience to contribute meaningfully to stability and a challenge because we had to navigate through more than our fair share of geopolitical turbulence. He added that Pakistan had been vocal for the rights of Kashmiris and raised voices against the Modi’s inhumane and racial policies both within and outside India. The event was attended by two serving air chiefs from Kenya and Ukraine. There were twenty six foreign observers from various countries including UK, Australia, Norway, Turkey, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Malaysia, Indonesia, Bahrain, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa.

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Brief of the Conference

Opening Remarks: Air Chief Marshal (Retd) Kaleem Saadat, President CASS

In his opening address, President CASS, Air Chief Marshal Kaleem Saadat highlighted the significance of Pakistan's location at the crossroads of three strategically important regions of the world -South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia. In his view, this significance was well acknowledged as Pakistan played an instrumental role in facilitating the Afghan peace process and helped to avert an impending crisis in the Middle East by playing a mediator role between Saudi Arabia and Iran. He noted that previously Pakistan had sided with the west- whether it was SEATO, CENTO, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan or Operation Enduring Freedom. In addition, it had sheltered between two to four million Afghan refugees since 1979, while also consistently contributing troops to UN peace-keeping missions in Europe and Africa. He emphasised that that Pakistan was forced to join those alliances for the sake of aid as it consistently failed to collect enough revenues to manage its expenditures. He noted that foreign aid and loans bridged budgetary gaps, but Pakistan lost its sovereignty without gaining security or stability and it continued to oscillate between the status of a major non-NATO ally and a Pariah, depending upon the discretion of the West. In this political backdrop, he discussed the contours of changing nature of warfare and its impact on Pakistan’s security policy. He, then, delved into the analysis of hybrid warfare and stated that Pakistan had endured worst security challenges as a result of the war on terror; be it growing terrorist attacks inside country killing thousands of civilians and security forces or the troubled relations with the eastern as well as the western neighbours. He appreciated the resilience of Pakistani nation in face of challenges and stated that people of Pakistan had witnessed unprecedented challenges, but they remained persistent and showed resilience even in the gravest of situations. Nevertheless, resilience had a shelf life and if not backed by some concrete measures to improve the worsening situation, it had

11 the potential of turning into a chronic despondency. He underlined the fact that while the governance challenges and economic woes were still unrestrained, the overall security dynamics had changed dramatically.

Air Vice Marshal Faaiz Amir (Retd), Former VC Air University The Role of Aerospace Power in South Asia

Air Vice Marshal Faaiz Amir emphasized on the role of airpower in the contemporary world by quoting a number of strategists of the 20th century. After providing an overview of the significance of the airpower, he noted that four fundamental missions had emerged from the early debates between various experts: mastery of airspace, support to surface forces, ability to strike enemy’s center of gravity and interdiction of enemy’s line of communications while the ability to rapidly airlift supplies had also become a crucial factor later on. He further added that actionable intelligence gathering and information dominance had become pivotal for air warfare. He underlined the importance of space as a critical domain in warfare and asserted that any state which wanted dominance in the battlefield should maintain sizeable presence in space as well because the other military domains were highly dependent on it. The speaker discussed India’s self- image and elaborated how India perceived itself as a rising power with a sizeable military, growing economy, large population and membership in the space club. India aimed to sit among the global powers such as the U.S.A. and China in order to shape the future international order. Likewise, India was on the way of strengthening its capabilities especially in the realm of air power. He highlighted India’s force modernization with over 450 front line fighter bombers including Su- 30, Mirage 2000, MiG-29 and 36 Rafael jets. He also discussed India’s missile defence capability and naval capabilities as well as space endeavours. In view of aforementioned military modernisations, he warned against the risk of another conflict with India in the next 18 to 24 months, particularly after Indian acquisition of Rafael Jets. The speaker concluded his address by stating that Pakistan should be well aware of the changing regional dynamics and take necessary measures accordingly. In his view, greatest threat that Pakistan faced was from cyber-attacks.

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Lt Gen Aamir Riaz (Retd), Former President National Defence University- Hybrid Warfare Lt. General Aamir Riaz (Retd) talked about the dilemma that war was becoming more complex and pervasive. He shed light on how the boundaries between military and non-military means were shrinking. Talking about the diverse threats in a hybrid warfare, he mentioned that the hackers could create havoc and eventually cripple the financial system of a country. Such technologies created a post-truth environment thereby increasing the religious, social and ethnic divides. In his view, means were available to fabricate fear and hate and target political, military and economic stability of the state. He emphasised that rules of the war had to be rewritten as the phenomena of war was becoming ever more autonomous and existing state structures were losing control over it. Talking about different jargons such as the unrestricted warfare used by China and the hybrid warfare used by the United States, he expounded upon the definition and stated that the entire effort is intelligence driven and technology aided and aim of this warfare was to shape the behaviour of a state. He then defined the Clausewitzian triangle and stated that the three nodes of the triangle were connected by the broad consensus on political philosophy and economic viability of the state. The main effort of hybrid warfare was directed against political consensus in a state with the aim to unravel the political, ethnic, sectarian divide and at the same time hamper its economic viability. He explained his arguments by referring to four case studies including Libya, Syria, Ukraine and Iran which were facing the onslaught of hybrid warfare. He went on to discuss risks of hybrid warfare between nuclear belligerents. In this regard, he noted that indirect means had become more pervasive and space for direct warfare had shrunk between India and Pakistan. He added that in an anarchic world order, application of hybrid warfare could happen amongst friends and foes alike. He warned against India’s dangerous trajectory in the backdrop of intensifying US-China competition. Talking about the remedial measures for Pakistan, he underscored the importance of broad political consensus along with economic revival and maintenance of minimum credible deterrence. He emphasised upon the need to consolidate the 13 gains of Pakistan’s war against militancy and make more efforts to turn US-China competition into cooperation.

Jorge Sebastiao, Chief Technology Officer Huawei Middle East & European Union -Cyber Warfare

Jorge Sebastio stressed upon the importance of a good vision to defend oneself against risks of cyber warfare. Noting that cyber warfare was a global phenomenon, he emphasised that it was taking place in regional context. According to him, despite being less in number, the impact of cyber attacks was quite large as they acted against country’s critical assets. He highlighted the importance of right strategy of defence and maintained that it was critical to understand the associated risks. Talking about the state sponsored acts as a key element of current day cyber warfare, he said that they had increased considerably over past few years and were aimed at disrupting the target country’s economic and political fabric. Highlighting that Pakistan had been a victim of such attacks, he stressed on the need of necessary preparations to defend. He talked about four major quantifications of cyber-attacks that included nation state warfare, political influencers’ campaigns, spying campaigns and nation state espionage. He said that a right infrastructure and right procedures were needed to defend against such attacks. Citing the examples of Stuxnet and Shamoon cyber attacks, Mr. Sebastiao deliberated upon the fact that how new generation of attacks could be launched in a sophisticated way without having direct connectivity into the target environment. He reflected upon the future challenges and talked about Nitro Zeus, the most sophisticated cyber weapon and said if there was going to be a major disruption or physical war between the countries, it would be the first weapon to be used as it had the potential to cause massive disruption in a country’s critical infrastructure. He acknowledged that it was very difficult to mitigate such large attacks, however, he stressed upon the need to have technology that could drain, redirect and block such attacks. Talking about the asymmetrical nature of cyber warfare, he maintained that the capability to completely defend oneself

14 against the cyber-attacks was not even available to the most sophisticated countries like Israel, who had top of the line cyber defence, research and weapons.

Foreign Minister of Pakistan: Shah Mahmood Qureshi- Pakistan’s Vision for Peace and Stability

The Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi highlighted the importance of Pakistan’s geo-political location as a pivot between South and Central Asia and the Middle East and China, which in his view was both a blessing and a challenge. It was a blessing because it gave Pakistan the salience to contribute meaningfully to stability and a challenge because it required Pakistan to navigate through various geo-political turbulences. He stressed that after taking the charge, his government had resolved to do things differently in the foreign policy arena. He shared the government’s vision that it would neither become part of any conflict nor would allow its soil to be used against any other country. He emphasised that the reasons for change in Pakistan’s image at the global level could be explained under the government’s effective role in US-Afghan dialogue, success against terrorism risks, lessening the tensions with belligerent neighbor via opening of Kartarpur Corridor, and playing effective role in bridging the trust deficit between Muslim countries. In his view, another feather in the Government’s cap was crisis management with India, especially after India violated Pakistan’s airspace. Restraint was exercised from the Pakistani side, which in his view, indicated the intent of Pakistani leadership for peace and stability. He highlighted that Pakistan had been vocal for the rights of Kashmiris and raised voices against the Modi government’s inhumane and racial policies both within and outside India. In his view, Hindutva and its impact on India’s state institutions posed the single gravest threat to global and regional peace and security. He underscored that Pakistan’s relations were at a qualitatively higher level because of its attempt to reinvigorate partnerships. He further added that the biggest tribute to Pakistan’s effort was the fact that Pakistan was now being seen as part of the solution and not as part of the conflict. He also lauded Pakistan’s recognition as most consistent and reliable contributor to peace efforts around the world.

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Profiles of the Speakers

ACM Kaleem Saadat (Retd), Former Air Chief, President CASS Air Chief Marshal (Retd) Kaleem Saadat is President, Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) and former Chief of Air Staff, Pakistan Air Force. During his service of 38 years, he has held operational, command and staff appointments. He has a Master’s degree in defence and strategic studies and is also a graduate of the Ecole Superiure de Guerre Inter Armee (ESGI) and Cours Superiure Inter Armee (CSI) at the Ecole Militaire at Paris, France. He was the member of directing staff at Air War College, Pakistan Air Force and Chief Instructor of National Defence Wing of the then National Defence College, now called the NDU, Islamabad. He is now Patron- in-Chief of Thinkers Forum Pakistan, of which he had been President and contributing writer for six years. He has also been the Patron of Pakistan Ex- Servicemen Association. He has keen interest in war, peace, airpower employment and development as well as global security and politics.

AVM Faaiz Amir (Retd), former VC Air University

Air Vice Marshal Faaiz Amir (Retd) has served in Pakistan Air Force (PAF) for over 35 years. He has been a distinguished professional of PAF and commanded the prestigious Combat Commanders School of Pakistan Air Force. He also served as commandant of the National Security College of National Defence University (NDU). He possesses high command and management skills along with the advanced academic background. Most recently, AVM Faaiz Amir (Retd) has also served as the vice chancellor of Air University.

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Lt Gen Aamir Riaz (Retd), Former President National Defence University

Lieutenant General Aamer Riaz was commissioned in a Distinguished Battalion of Frontier Force Regiment in 1984. He is a graduate of Command and Staff College, Quetta and National Defence University, Islamabad. In addition, he holds a Masters Degree in Science & War Studies from Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad and Diploma in Defence and Strategic Studies from University of Malaya, Malaysia. His varied command, staff and instructional experience includes Brigade Major of Independent Mechanized Brigade Group, Commanding Officer of Frontier Force Regiment, Chief of Staff, Commander Independent Infantry Brigade Group, and General Officer Commanding of Division and Commander of two different Corps. On the instructional side, he has been on the faculty of School of Infantry and Tactics and Command and Staff College, Quetta. He remained President of National Defence University, Islamabad from December 2018 to October 2019.

Jorge Sebastiao, Chief Technology Officer Huawei Middle East & European Union Jorge is an international ICT speaker, seasoned managed services, cloud computing, cyber security, blockchain, big data, AI, IoT and ICT innovation professional. He has over 30 years of ICT experience, covering, innovation, architecture as well as risk management, compliance, auditing, certification, business continuity and disaster recovery. He has also served in diverse sectors including telecom, oil and gas, financial, government, defense, healthcare, and education. He architects practical and business focused solutions.

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Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Foreign Minister of Pakistan

Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi has twice served as Minister for Foreign Affairs; from 2008 – 2011 and currently, since August 2018. A seasoned politician, Foreign Minister Qureshi has engaged at every echelon of politics and governance since he started his political career in 1983 from the District Council, from where he progressed to the Provincial Assembly. Foreign Minister Qureshi remained a member of the Punjab Assembly for nine years from 1985 to 1993 and has held multiple Ministerial portfolios, serving previously as Minister of Planning and Development and Minister of Finance of the Punjab. He has also served as Mayor of the city of Multan from 2000 to 2002 and has been elected 5 times as Member National Assembly from Multan in elections held in 1993, 2002, 2008, 2013 and 2018. Foreign Minister Qureshi has also served as the Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs in the Federal Cabinet from 1993 to 1996. As Foreign Minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi envisions a foreign policy that is articulate and principled, ensuring a peaceful and prosperous neighborhood for development. He believes in the reinforcement of long-standing relationships and in making new alliances, with Pakistan pursuing a policy of partnerships for peace, security and prosperity.

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Conference Program

 Registration and arrival of speakers and guests  Recitation of the Holy Quran  Opening Remarks by President CASS, Air Chief Marshal Kaleem Saadat (Retd)  Working Session: o AVM Faaiz Amir (Retd), former VC Air University The Role of Aerospace Power in South Asia o Lt Gen Aamir Riaz (Retd), Former President National Defence University Hybrid Warfare o Jorge Sebastiao, Chief Technology Officer Huawei Middle East & European Union Cyber Warfare o Questions and Answers and discussion

 Closing remarks by the Chief Guest: Foreign Minister of Pakistan Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi  Vote of Thanks by President CASS & Presentation of Souvenirs

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Graphical Representation of the Participants

Seminar Participation 35 32 33 30 28 30 26 26 24 25 22 22 22 20 18 14 15 10 5 0 Military Ex Officers Military Foreign Private CASS Govt Academi Diplomat Ambassa Think (Tri Officers Observer Students Compani Media Member Officials a s dors / Tanks Srvices (Retired) s es s MOFA Serving) Participants 22 26 32 33 22 26 18 22 14 24 28 30

Participants

Breakdown of the Participants List Total Invitations: 300 Number of Participants: 297

Category No. of Participant Government Officials from various 22 Departments and Ministries Academia 26 Military Officers (Tri Services serving) 32 Military Officers (Retired) 33 Foreign Ambassadors, Defence Attaches, High 22 Commissioners Foreign Observers 26 Ex Ambassadors / MOFA 18 Students from Related Departments (NUST, 22 QAU, NDU, & IST) Private Organizations 14 Think Tanks 24 Media 28 CASS (President, Directors, Researchers & 30 other members) Total Attendance 297

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Publications

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Picture Gallery of the Conference

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Media Coverage

Electronic Media

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Print and Web Media

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Social Media

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Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies

Islamabad

Old Airport Road, Chaklala Cantt, Rawalpindi

Tel: +92-51-9524040

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.casstt.com

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