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Evaluating Options from a Statewide Perspective

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Evaluating Options from a Statewide Perspective The California Water Plan Update BULLETIN 160-98 Evaluating Options From a Statewide Perspective main objective of this California Water Plan update is evaluating, at an appraisal level of detail, how California’s water supply reliability needs Acould be met through 2020. This chapter outlines the process used to put together the conceptual evaluation and evaluates water management options that are statewide in scope. A brief discussion of methods available to local agencies for financing water management options is also provided. The planning process includes developing regional water management evaluations for each of the State’s ten major hydrologic regions, and integrating those results with statewide water management options to form a summary for the entire State. Development of regional water management evaluations is covered in Chapters 7-9. Statewide water management options include demand reduction measures that many water agencies are expected to implement, and large-scale water supply augmentation measures that would provide supply to multiple beneficiaries in more Sources of water than one hydrologic region. For example, a large offstream storage supply must be identified to meet the reservoir studied under CALFED’s Bay-Delta program is considered a needs of California’s statewide option. A small reservoir project being studied by a local agency growing population. to provide benefits only to its service area is not a statewide option. Chapters 6-9 discuss potential future water Such local projects are covered in Chapters 7-9. This chapter opens by management options. presenting a balance between California’s water supplies and its water use, illustrating the shortages that would occur if no new water management facilities or programs were developed. 6-1 EVALUATING OPTIONS FROM A STATEWIDE PERSPECTIVE The California Water Plan Update BULLETIN 160-98 TABLE 6-1 California Water Budget with Existing Facilities and Programs (maf) 1995 2020 Average Drought Average Drought Water Use Urban 8.8 9.0 12.0 12.4 Agricultural 33.8 34.5 31.5 32.3 Environmental 36.9 21.2 37.0 21.3 Total 79.5 64.7 80.5 66.0 Supplies Surface Water 65.1 43.5 65.0 43.4 Groundwater 12.5 15.8 12.7 16.0 Recycled & Desalted 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 Total 77.9 59.6 78.1 59.8 Shortage 1.6 5.1 2.4 6.2 . Statewide Water Budget The water supply and water use information dis- experienced in 1991 and 1992, drought year short- cussed in Chapters 3 and 4 and summarized in Tables ages are large. Urban water users faced cutbacks in 3-3, 4-26, and 4-27 is combined into the statewide ap- supply and mandatory rationing, some small rural plied water budget with existing facilities and programs communities saw their wells go dry, agricultural lands shown in Table 6-1. Regional water budgets with exist- were fallowed, and environmental water supplies were ing facilities and programs are shown in Appendix 6A. reduced. By 2020, without additional facilities and The shortages shown in Table 6-1 reflect the Bulletin’s programs, these conditions will worsen, reflecting assumption that groundwater overdraft is not available California’s forecasted population increase. Appen- as a supply. dix 6B shows forecasted shortages by hydrologic The average water year shortages at 1995 and region, assuming that no new facilities or programs 2020 levels illustrate the need to develop new facili- were implemented. ties and programs to improve California’s water supply The following section describes the planning pro- reliability. Californians are facing water shortages now, cess used in Bulletin 160-98 to evaluate actions that and will face them in the future. As Californians would reduce the State’s future water shortages. The Bulletin 160-98 Planning Process The process used to evaluate ways to meet California’s agement options used information prepared by local future water needs drew upon, at an appraisal level of agencies. The regional water management options detail, techniques of integrated resources planning. IRP evaluations are not intended to replace local planning evaluates water management options—both demand efforts, but to complement them, by showing the rela- reduction options and supply augmentation options— tionships among regional water supplies and water against a fixed set of criteria and ranks the options based needs and the statewide perspective. Local water man- on costs and other factors. Although the IRP process in- agement options form the basis of the regional cludes economic evaluations, it also incorporates summaries which are combined into the statewide op- environmental, institutional, and social considerations tions evaluation. Figure 6-1 is an index map showing which cannot be expressed easily in monetary terms. how the regional summaries are organized in Chap- The development of likely regional water man- ters␣ 7-9. EVALUATING OPTIONS FROM A STATEWIDE PERSPECTIVE 6-2 The California Water Plan Update BULLETIN 160-98 FIGURE 6-1 Index to Regional Chapters North Coast Coastal Regions (Chapter 7) Redding North Lahontan Interior Regions (Chapter 8) Eastern Sierra and Colorado River Regions (Chapter 9) Sacramento River San Joaquin River San Francisco Bay Central Coast Tulare Lake South Lahontan South Coast Colorado River 6-3 EVALUATING OPTIONS FROM A STATEWIDE PERSPECTIVE The California Water Plan Update BULLETIN 160-98 Initial Screening Criteria The criteria used for initial screening of water manage- • Environmental—an option was deferred from further evaluation ment options were: if it had potentially significant unmitigable environmental impacts • Engineering—an option was deferred from further evalu- or involved use of waterways designated as wild and scenic. ation if it was heavily dependent on the development of • Institutional/Legal—an option was deferred from further technologies not currently in use, it used inappropriate evaluation if it had potentially unresolvable water rights technologies given the regional characteristics (desalting conflicts or conflicts with existing statutes. in the North Lahontan Region), or it did not provide new • Social/Third Party—an option was deferred from further water (water recycling in the Central Valley). evaluation if it had extraordinary socioeconomic impacts, • Economic—an option was deferred from further evalua- either in the water source or water use areas. tion if its cost estimates (including environmental mitiga- • Health—an option was deferred from further evaluation if tion costs) were extraordinarily high given the region’s it would violate current health regulations or would pose characteristics. significant health threats. Major Steps in Planning Process local water management options was prepared. Where Major steps involved in the Bulletin 160-98 possible, basic characteristics of these options (yields, water management options evaluation process costs, significant environmental or institutional con- included: cerns) were identified. • Identify water demands and existing water sup- After identifying options, they were compared with plies on a regional basis. the initial screening criteria shown in the sidebar. For • Compile lists of regional and statewide water options deferred from further evaluation, the major management options. reasons for deferral were given. Options retained for • Use initial evaluation criteria to either retain or further evaluation were placed into the following defer options from further evaluation. For op- categories: tions retained for further evaluation, group some • Conservation (urban and agricultural) by categories and evaluate others individually. • Modifications to existing reservoirs/operations • Identify characteristics of options or option catego- • New reservoirs/conveyance facilities ries, including costs, potential demand reduction • Groundwater/conjunctive use or supply augmentation, environmental consider- • Water marketing ations, and significant institutional issues. • Water recycling • Evaluate each regional option or category of op- • Desalting (brackish groundwater and seawater) tions in light of identified regional characteristics • Other local options using criteria established for this Bulletin. If local • Statewide options agencies have performed their own evaluation, Because each of these categories may contain many review and compare their evaluation criteria with individual options, some options within each category those used for the Bulletin. were further combined into groups based upon their • Evaluate statewide water management options. estimated costs. For example, water recycling projects • Develop tabulation of likely regional water man- costing less than $500/af were grouped into one cat- agement options. egory. Options were evaluated and scored against the • Develop a statewide options evaluation by inte- set of fixed criteria shown in the sidebar. grating the regional results. The Bulletin 160-98 options evaluation process The first step in evaluating regional water man- relied heavily upon locally developed information. agement options was to prepare applied water budgets Methods used to develop this information vary from for the study areas to identify the magnitude of poten- one local agency to the next, making direct compari- tial water shortages for average and drought year sons between cost estimates difficult. To make cost conditions. In addition to identifying shortages, other information comparable, a common approach for es- water supply reliability issues in the region were re- timating unit cost was developed (Appendix 6C). viewed.
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