Thursday, June 3, 1999 • Volume 5, Number 35 Page 1of8 •• • • • .•• • •. •.. 0 'Bannon slipping ·-·­• •. •• •. •• • THE :=r-=:--· in Marion County A place where he won by 19 ,000 votes

HOWEYT By BRIAN A. HOWEY in In the first indication of how mucl;l of a hit Gov. Frank O'Bannon has taken since the end of the lllth POLITICAL General Assembly, a NUVO-TeleResearch Poll in Marion County reveals that his favorable/unfavorable rating stands at 52/41 percent. That's a significant decline from late summer 1998 REPORT when Democratic pollsters at the Indiana Democratic Editorial Association convention at French Lick had pegged The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink, his approval rating in the 70th percentile. Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is For sheer irony, the man O'Bannon defeated in 1996 - an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the political process in Indiana .. Indianapolis Mayor Stephen Goldsmith - had a 69/25 percent fav/unfav. Those numbers were virtually the same in a Brian A. Howey February TeleResearch survey. editor and publisher The same poll conducted May 22-23 with 330 likely The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 registered voters (+/- 5 percent) had Indianapolis mayoral PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-254-2405 candidates Sue Anne Gilroy and Bart Peterson tied at 36 per­ Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 [email protected] cent, with Libertarian Andrew Homing coming in at 4 per­ www.howeypolitics.com cent. That marked a decline in Gilroy's numbers from 47-30 • Washington office: 202-775-3242 percent in a late March Indianapolis Star/WTHR poll, and down from 43-19 percent in a February TeleResearch Poll. Business Office: 317-254-0535. Pager: 317-320-2722 While a Republican loss in the Indianapolis mayoral Daytime number: 317-254-2400, Ext. 273 race would be a devastating event for the party, the GOP Subscriptions: $250 annually via fax or first could take solace from the idea that O'Bannon doesn't class mail. Call 317-254-1533. appear to be as invincible as he was at the beginning of the year. © 1999, The Howey Political Report. All rights reserved. Photocopying, faxing or reproducing in any Beyond the polls and the public displays of politics form, in whole or in part, is a violation offederal law lies an interesting chess game between O'Bannon and and is strictly prohibited without consent of the Goldsmith which could have a huge impact in the Gilroy- publisher. Conti11_ued on page 2 "QUOTE" OF THE WEEK INSIDE FEATURES

'I think it is safe to say that I will not be Ticker Tape: Hoosier crops in p.2 writing any more letters of reference to Gun control, fear, rage p. 4-5 criminal cases ... "' Columnists: Dooley, Gerard p.6 Horse Race: Muncie mayoral; 2nd & • • Muncie Mayor Dan Canan, to the Star Press, after he 9th CDs; Mclntosh-O'Bannon p. 7-8 retracted a letter of reference for a convicted drug dealer www.howeypolitics.com with more than 30 arrests and 8 felong convictions Thursday, June 3, 1999 Page 2of8

REMEMBER ••• Jf WE A&REE TO 6iVEYC>tl THE. 8Ri Ck, THEN IT~ UP TO YOU TO • 1HROW tT!

With Gilroy already declaring Numbers,frompage 1 TICKER Indianapolis as the "best run city in Peterson mayoral race. Goldsmith is faced America," she now faces reports from the T A P E with a $33 mil lion balloon payment on Indiana State Board of Accounts audit Circle Centre Mall financing due to the headed to the attorney general's office • A special prosecutor.has· Indiana Public Depository Fund on Feb. l, sometime this summer, and the unknown declined to press child 2000 - a month after Goldsmith's succes­ long-term debt status involving the United molestation charges against sor takes office. That loan came from the Airlines Maintenance facility and Marion County Republican state's Rainy Day Fund in 1988 when Goldsmith's Building Better Neighbor- Chairman John Sweezy fol­ Indianapolis was one of 10 cities that bor­ hoods program. lowing allegations by a 9- year-old female relative •• rowed money from the fund. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to Sources tell HPR that Goldsmith imagine O'Bannon and the Democrats Agronomists are calling the pressed O'Bannon to call the Indiana leg­ coming to a conclusion that restructuring May planting season in islature back into session so the loan the Circle Centre Mall loans during the Indiana almost perfect. Corn could be renegotiated, along with other legislature's reorganization day after the planting in northern and business that included reinstatement of tax November city elections will keep the central Indiana was 98 per­ credits for high tech research and develop­ heat on Goldsmith and Gilroy and perhaps cent complete - nearing the ment, and banking and insurance laws that help pave the way for a Peterson victory. record of 99 percent in would keep American United Life and The risk for O'Bannon in that sce­ 1988, the last major drought several banks from rechartering or moving nario is that his support in Marion County year in the state (Lafayette has significantly eroded from 1996 when Journal & Courier). Soybean to other states - things O'Bannon wanted planting is one day behind to accomplish in overtime. he won the county by an astounding the 1987 record. "I'd say Legislative leaders from both par­ 19,000-vote plurality. we're 10 days to two weeks ties balked at a special session and That erosion of support in the ahead of schedule," said O'Bannon did not pull the trigger. That state's leading GOP stronghold is most Rick Roach of Hamer Roach leaves Goldsmith with a $36 million bank likely due to contoversies surrounding and Arthur Farms near loan he directed the city to take out last Indiana State Police pay, the defeat of Monticello. year to cover the Circle Centre Mall loan full-day kindergarten, and the potential • due this August, according to a story in loss of American United Life. But another Continued on page 3 the Indianapolis Star. element to that may be Marion County Page 3of8 Thursday, June 3, 1999

Republicans leaning toward returning to buoyed by the looming entry of U.S. Rep. their normal base, even though outward David Mcintosh into the gubernatorial .TICKER migration to the eight collar counties will race later this month. Mcintosh has • eventually make Indianapolis more of a enjoyed wide media exposure in the T A p E two-party city. Indianapolis market from his 1994 Republican voters may also be through 1998 2nd CD campaigns. •!• Attorney General Jeff r..:.•:1 Modisett and Curt Smith of I I!:-.•::: the Hudson Institute are THE --· headed to Indonesia as part of an international team of HOWEY' election observers. President Clinton's poll POLITICAL numbers have dropped con· June 1, 1999 siderably, due in large part REPORT to his policies involving Kosovo. "The public is frus· To: Jim Shella, WISH-TV; Dr. Brian Vargus, Indiana University trated by a lack of progress From: Brian Howey, NUVO Newsweekly; Jeff Lewis, TeleResearch and also by these acci· Re: The Poll Challenge dents," said Pew's Andrew Kohut His latest job Jim, it has come to our attention that in the May 28 edition of Indiana Week in approval rating has dipped Review, you made comments that not only attacked the veracity of polling conduct­ to 53 percent, according to ed by TeleRearch in the current Indianapolis mayoral race, but the credibility of a Pew Research survey. .NUVO Newsweekly as a viable news source as well . Said analyst Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institute, "53 percent midway through You've been in the business long enough to know that talk is cheap, and since you your seventh year is pretty • made those assertions it seems appropriate for a retrospective comparison of the darn good." work we do at TeleResearch, NUVO and The Howey Political Report and the work you and Dr. Vargus do for WISH-TV and Indiana Week in Review. Dr. Billy Graham told an Indianapolis press confer­ It is our recollection that in the 10th CD race between Rep. Carson and Gary ence that it was a "mistake Hofmeister, a TeleResearch poll conducted two weeks before the election had to take religion out of Carson leading with a 55-37 percent margin. That data allowed HPR to accurately schools" and said school forecast victory for Carson (as well as Rep. Hostettler in the 8th CD) in our Oct. 22, violence has to "be met with 1998, edition. It is also our recollection that on the night before the general election, prayer." Graham will preach at the RCA Dome you and Dr. Vargus were telling WISH viewers that the 10th CD was a dead heat. June 3-6. He will be joined As we now know, Carson won by a 58-39 percent margin. In 1996, TeleResearch by former Sen. Dan Coats said Frank O'Bannon was leading in Marion County in his gubernatorial race on Saturday. NASCAR dri· against Mayor Goldsmith. And HPR - based on that data and our own analysis of ver Jeff Gordon will appear Goldsmith's expenditure of $2 million in the Chicago media market - was explain­ with Graham on Friday. ing to its readers that the governor's race was ripe for an upset. We're not sure what WISH was telling its viewers just before that election. Gary City Council members have passed increased So let's dust off the numbers and dub the tapes and see where the accurate forecasts expense accounts for them­ really were. Once the data is compiled, we'll be more than happy to report the con­ selves by between 24 and 33 percent (Gary Post­ trasts in NUVO, HPR and any other interested media. Perhaps you would also be Tribune). Council members, willing to share the information with your viewers on WISH and Indiana Week in three of whom were defeat· Review. We'll have our comprehensive information for the Poll Challenge compiled eel for re-election last by June 8 and hope that you and Dr. Vargus will do the same. •!• month, cited an increase in • continued on page 4 Thursday, June 3, 1999 Page 4 of 8 TICKER Hoosiers debate guns p T A E Senate ups the political stakes for House members; parents feel heat • By MARK SCHOEFF Jr. in Washington agendas in the schools to real efforts to inflation as the reason. But BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis enforce laws that are on the books." the Post-Tribune pointed After a tumultuous debate on gun con­ Mcintosh's fellow conservative, out that the rate of inflation trol in the Senate in May, Hoosier mem­ Rep. Mark Souder (R-CD 4), has not for 1998 was 1.6 percent bers of the House of Representatives are made a decision on gun-control legislation and only 2.3 percent in keeping their powder dry on the issue. nor is he able to project how the GOP 1997. On May 20, one month after two caucus may vote, according to spokes­ Editorial reaction by many students at a Littleton, Colo., school shot woman Angela Flood. At this point, he Hoosier newspapers to the and killed 13 people, the Senate approved seems to be favoring gun-show checks. Cox Report on Chinese a juvenile crime measure that would place "If we do background checks at attainment of U.S. nuclear modest restrictions on gun sales and guns bought in other venues, why not do technology has been mild. require child-safety trigger locks. After it at gun shows?" Flood said in describing The Evansville Courier & watching the Senate GOP stumble and be her boss' thinking. She added, however, Press summed it up like humbled during the gun debate, House that he believes that people calling this: "It shows Chinese Speaker J. Dennis Hastert last week said for restrictions must explain how they will have acquired sophisticated technology. Our View: the House GOP leadership would support contribute to improving safety. United States still has con­ "common-sense legislation that keeps siderable edge." The editori· guns out of the hands of unsupervised Democrats unclear al continued, "The outrage children." Hastert also said the party On the Democratic side, the picture over this theft should not would back gun-show background checks. isn't much clearer. Rep. Pete Visclosky • obscure the fact that the The House GOP, which clings to a (D-CD 1) "wants to take a look at what's only serious nuclear threat five-vote majority, has been roiled by in each measure" before deciding whether to the United States remains challenges to leadership positions. It's not Russia, with its disintegrat­ to support the House gun bills, said clear whether the caucus will line up ing military and huge stocks spokesman Chip Lewis. Visclosky backed of weapons." behind their leaders on this issue, which the Brady Bill and the assault-weapons will be taken up next week after the body ban five years ago. Legislative summer study returns from its Memorial Day recess. Rep. Baron Hill (D-CD 9) has not committees will look into Rep. David Mcintosh (R-CD 2) is taken a position on the issue, said spokes­ school violence, ozone pol· the leader of the Conservative Action woman Angela Belden. Gun measures lution, privatizing of the Team, an influential group of about 50 may prove to be tough votes for the fresh­ Bureau of Motor Vehicles, House members. CAT has consistently man, who represents a largely rural dis­ land-based casinos and been vocal and assertive in trying to trict mostly devoid of suburbia, where the cable TV (Mike Chambers, ensure that the GOP caucus toes the con­ Evansville Courier & Press). gun debate resonates. The most controversial servative line. It will be active on guns, "There's always been a significant issue is to allow dockside too. and vocal minority, including Democrats, gambling at riverboard casi­ "In general, the Conservative who have not been favorably inclined to no sites, which has been Action Team will be heading the efforts to support candidates who have been in proposed by State Sen. defeat liberal gun-control amendments on favor of gun control," in CDs 8 and Earline Rogers, D-Gary, in the grounds that they would have made no 9, said Chris Sautter, a Washington response to gambling initia· difference in any of the school shootings," Democratic consultant who has worked on tives in Illinois and Ken­ Mcintosh told HPR. "In addition, we're a number of campaigns. tucky. Illinois Gov. George backing up the Family Caucus' efforts, led GOP Sen. Dick Lugar may have Ryan has endorsed a plan by (Rep.) John Hostettler (R-CD 8) to put to allow a riverboat on Lake helped Hill, said Sautter. Lugar was one • Michigan at Chicago. House on the agenda items that we think would of the few Republicans to emerge from Speaker John Gregg has make a real difference in the problems in the Senate debate unscathed. He was continued on page 5 the high schools, ranging from character among six GOP senators who voted in Page 5of8 Thursday, June 3, 1999

favor of the gun-show background checks teenagers for threatening violence. A the first time it came up. Others in their bomb-threat e-mailed to Kesling Middle TICKER party quickly joined them after being School in LaPorte on May 26 resulted in a T A p E • pummeled following the first vote. Lugar lockdown and increased police security. called the gun measures "common sense." Trion Elementary School in Shelby He has maintained a consistent gun posi­ County had to deal with rumors of poi­ already said he will oppose tion going back to his days as mayor of soned food in the cafeteria. Bomb threats the plan and Gov. Frank Indianapolis, when he sought gun curbs to closed Highland, Evansville Bosse and O'Bannon is on record as help police fight violent crime. Hammond Morton high schools. Another saying there will be no gam· "In Indiana, Lugar has always pro­ was received at an Evansville elementary bling expansion while he is in office. Gregg said that "in vided cover for House members in both school. It prompted a 16-year-old South the three sessions I have parties when he strays from the party Bend student to tell the Tribune, "The been speaker I have not line," said Sautter. "(Potential Hill chal­ entire media world, the lawmakers, the allowed any expansion of lenger Kevin Shaw) Kellems would be parents - they're abolutely afraid of us and . It's hard pressed to attack Hill for voting the they're afraid for their kids." He com­ obvious the country wants same way as Lugar on gun-safety issues." pared it to the "Red scare" of earlier to have gambling every· The key for Democrats is to keep decades. where. I guess we're an out· the debate focused on school safety and of-step dinosaur." parental supervision of youngsters. If the 'It's going to get worse' Joe Follick of Thomson topic is cast as a "big government" effort, Public officials were hardly offer­ Indiana reports that Indiana Democrats could pay a price, said Sautter. ing words of comfort. U.S. Attorney Jon legislators have diverted $1 Guns are likely to cast a shadow over the DeGuilio said last Friday that school vio­ million from the "belea· electorate through next year. Suburban lence "is only going to get worse" (Jack guered" BMV "for their own Littleton represents the kind of area where Colwell, South Bend Tribune). DeGuilio political parties." In many independent and "highly intense" had to deal with it personally since his January, BMV Commiss· ioner Gary Gibson proposed voters live or want to live. "It is the cul­ daughter is a sophomore at Highland High closing a number of smaller • tural issue for the next election," said John School. "It came home to me in a very Zogby, president of the independent branches and trimming the personal way," said DeGuilio. "You can $9 million annual losses polling firm Zogby International. imagine what a difficult situation that puts BMV posts. Follick reported, "Littleton is a word like Watergate you in as a parent. We chose to send our "Instead of complimenting or Kent State. It is an umbrella term that daughter to school on Tuesday. We the agency on its cost-cut· speaks to America's aspirations and fears." shouldn't have to live that way." ting effort, legislators • fear­ But volatility is one constant in pol­ Grant County Sheriff Oatess ful of constituent backlash itics. "It's difficult to predict how an issue Archey told the Indiana Black Expo in when a convenient, if ineffi· cient, branch in their district will play in a year and a half," said Muncie that parents are going to have to is closed • denounced Marshall Wittmann, director of congres­ provide more guidance from a culture sional relations at the conservative Gibson's plan and killed it where they are "hardened to death" to vio­ within a week. But legisla· Heritage Foundation. "After all, impeach­ lence on TV and in the movies (Larry tors failed to mention one ment has already been forgotten." Lough, Muncie Star Press). way to immediately save the "It's so important that we become agency money: ending the 'Black Scare' in Indiana role models," Archey said. "We are role peculiar system that brings While the House has been roiled in models, whether we want to be or not. Democrats and Republicans the gun control debate, Hoosier schools in Children are not little adults. That's why more than $1 million per year from the sales of per· God made parents. We're living in dan­ the wake of Littleton have experienced sonalized, vanity license what people are beginning to call the gerous times. We're going to have to do plates." Of the extra $40 the "Black Scare." something quickly or we're going to lose plates cost, $7 goes to high· Indiana newspapers have been pep­ the war." For Indiana's members of way funding, $3 goes to pered with news accounts of bomb Congress, the danger is political conse­ BMV operating costs, and threats, rumor mills that send scores of quences. For Hoosier parents, the stakes • parents headed to schools, arrests of are quite a bit higher. continued on page 6 •!• Thursday, June 3, 1999 Page 6of8 TICKER C-OLUMNISTS 0 N INDIANA T A p E • Mary Beth Schneider, Indiana­ restrict guns in one way or another. And polis Star - U.S. Rep. David Mcintosh the U.S. Senate obliged them this week $30 is split between the with some new gun laws. But there are Republicans and will decide soon whether to pass up an tons of laws already on the books. All in Democrats. almost sure shot at re-election to a fourth term in Congress for a long-shot gamble all there are some 20,000 gun laws on the Former 8th CD congress· that he can beat incumbent Gov. Frank books. With that many laws, one would man Joel Deckard has O'Bannon in 2000. He's been thinking - think there would be lots of convictions. announced he will run for and thinking and thinking - about this for Not so. In fact, the Clinton administra­ the U.S. Senate in Florida months. Indiana GOP Chairman Mike tion's track record when it comes to feder­ on the Reform Party ticket. McDaniel is enthused, seeing the possibil­ al gun law convictions isn't that great. It's Deckard served two terms ity of a GOP sweep in 2000. A strong down from the previous administration. as a Republican until he But you know, I really don't think it was defeated in 1982 by presidential candidate joining Republican would matter because gun laws, for the Democrat Frank Mccloskey U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar on Indiana's bal­ after he was ticketed for lot could deliver the advantage a competi­ most part, don't work. •!• drunk driving two weeks tor like Mcintosh needs to defeat even a prior to the election. popular incumbent like O'Bannon. •!• Mike Dooley, Fort Wayne News­ Deckard now lives in Sentinel - This month's primary is now Jacksonville and told the just a memory, but some members of Evansville Courier & Press David De Camp & Leslie Mayor Paul Helmke's administration still that he had disclosed the Stedman, Fort Wayne Journal Gazette drunk driving incident. chuckle when they recall one incident that - Dan Quayle was on Capitol Hill last occurred the day before the election. ''They said that's not a week to brainstorm with Indiana's GOP problem. It wasa 17 years According to them, a representative of House members. A main topic: How to • ago. That one issue doesn't Republican mayoral candidate Joe Squad­ define me." scare up more congressional endorsements rito' s campaign paid the mayor a visit in for his stuck-in-second-tier presidential his ninth-floor office to congratulate The World Trade Center of campaign. Short answers: Use your time Helmke on the race his public works Indiana will be headquar· on something with better odds. Quayle director, Linda Buskirk, ran against tered at the Hudson has the public backing of six of the seven Squadrito. Of course, the eminssary Institute. The WTCI develop­ Hoosier GOP members of Congress. ment office will be directed added, Joe will be the hands down winner Quayle also has been endorsed by and, after the smoke's cleared, we'd like by Indianapolis attorney Michigan Sen. Spence Abraham. That's at Greg Zoeller. ''The develop­ to send some people over to look around least seven out of the 277 congressional ment office at Hudson is the and get a feel for things. Contrary to some first step in opening the Republicans. George W. Bush, the big versions of the story, the Squadrito repre­ World Trade Center in kahuna in all aspects of the GOP presi­ sentative did not produce a tape measure Indiana," Zoeller said. dential contest, has sewed up 223 con­ and start measuring for new drapes. After gressional endorsements. And he's not his pitch was completed, the visitor had Indianapolis will host the even officially running. The rest of the one last favor to ask of the mayor. Aware Republican National GOP contenders have no more congres­ there's never been much love lost between Committee's annual meet· sional backing than Quay le, and some ing of state chairmen May Helmke and his man, he wanted to know have none. •!• 11-13, 2000. if the mayor might jump ship and endorse Democrat Graham Richard over U.S. Rep. John Hostettler Gary Gerard, Warsaw Times-Union­ Squadrito. As it turns out, he didn't have announced a $400,000 plan­ Another school shooting. Another round to worry. Squadrito didn't win the prima­ ning grant for l-69 and an of gun laws. That's the way things seem ry, and you can expect Helmke to stick additional $10 million for to be playing out these days. Lots of peo­ with his endorsement of Buskirk. •!• the entire highway corridor ple are calling for a bunch of new laws to • Page 7 of 8 Thursday, June 3, 1999 • Indiana Racing Form TICKER INDIANA MAYORAL RACES 1999 T A p E Indianapolis Mayoral: Republican: Secretary of State Sue Anne Gilroy. Democrat: Bart Peterson. Our Party: Rev. John Gibson. Libertarian: Andrew Horning. 1995 from the National Corridor Results: Goldsmith (R) 64,209, Jimison (D) 39,539, Dillon (L) 7,175. 1999 Forecast: Planning and Developing NUVO!feleResearch Poll shows race in a dead heat at 36 percent (May 22-23, 330 likely, +/-5 Program. percent). Results are similar to Democratic pollster Fred Yang's tracking for Peterson. Republican sources tell Horse Race that Gilroy's camp has also seen tight tracking.numbers. Hostettler is also pressing And little wonder: she took a full assault from Bob Parker's primary TV ad campaign, and the National Weather Service then let Peterson stay on the air uncontested for nearly three weeks following the primary. In to keep the Evansville weath­ that context, the numbers shouldn't be surprising. Gilroy campaign says TeleResearch's er bureau open after a recent 41/36/23 sampling of R's, D's and I's is "IO to 11 tornado touched down and percent off' on the Democratic side. That would Horse Race destroyed three homes in still put the race within the margin of error. Yang l••••••r------• Pike County with no prior noted that many people he surveyed had confused warning. The NWS has all Peterson for Republican primary challenger Bob Parker. In the TeleResearch sampling, but closed the Evansville Gilroy's fav/unfav stood at 50/39; Peterson's stood at 44/37; Goldsmith's at 69/25 (almost office. Hostettler also cited identical to TeleResearch's February numbers) and Sheriff Jack Cottey at 59/22 percent. Other tornadoes that touched striking numbers include IPS and property taxes as the new top issues, replacing the city's down without posted warn­ homicide rate. Two Memorial Day weekend murders show that the city isn't completely out of the woods there. The upshot of all of this are the first hard numbers that auger what most ings in Warrick County in observers have been saying for months - this race is going to be a barn burner. General 1996 and on the north side of Status: TOSSUP . Evansville. The nearest Doppler weather radar sites Muncie Mayoral: Republican: Mayor Dan Canan. Democrat: Ralph Smith Jr. are located in Indianapolis 1995 Results: Canan (R) 9,718, Carey (D) 6,521. 1999 Forecast: Canan seemed to be in great and Paducah, KY. • shape coming out of the primary season, but his letter of reference on city stationary on behalf of a convicted drug dealer with more than 30 arrests seeking a sentence modification is a cam­ Gov. Frank O'Bannon helped paign nightmare. Ouch! Canan also agrees to investigate claims of police misconduct in black open a $31.4 million chassis neighborhoods following a police beating. Double ouch!! Watch this one. Status: Leans plant in Union City this week. Canan. O'Bannon rode a stripped-to· the-frame truck as it broke INDIANA 2000 RACES through a yellow ribbon at the Workhorse Custom Governor: Republican: U.S. Rep. David Mcintosh, George Witwer, John Price. Chassis plant The new facili­ Democrat: Gov. Frank O'Bannon. 1996 results: O'Bannon 1,107,342, Goldsmith 997,505, ty will employ 278 workers in Dillon 35,261. 2000 Forecast: Last summer Democratic pollster Fred Yang's tracking had Randolph County, which has O'Bannon's positive ratings in the 70th percentile. The NUVO/TeleResearch Poll in Marion one of the highest jobless County has FOB's fav/unfav numbers at 52/41. While such comparisons are literally apples or rates in the state. oranges, they have to be sending a shiver of fear down Democratic spines nonetheless. The one baseline fav/unfav in the TeleResearch poll was Mayor Goldsmith, who came in at 69 per­ The Lake County Sheriffs cent favorable in both this and the February survey. Mcintosh really looks like a GO at this Department has turned over point. He was in earlier this week visiting South Bend, Fort Wayne, Elkhart a report to the county prose­ and had a long talk with Doc Bowen in Bremen on Wednesday. Mcintosh had a good earned cutor that apparently has media day in the South Bend/Elkhart market where he offered to hold field hearings on the sufficient evidence to charge impact of the Goodrich/Col-Tee merger on Allied Signal. General Status: Leans O'Bannon. several people with absentee Congressional District 2: Republican: U.S. Rep. David Mcintosh, Jim Huston, ballot vote fraud in the East Mike Pence, Supt. Suellen Reed. Democrat: Joe Hogsett, New Castle Mayor Sherman Boles, Chicago mayoral election Marc Carmichael, State Rep. Scott Mellinger. Geography: Muncie, Anderson, Richmond, (Bob Trta, Times of Shelbyville, Columbus and . 1994 results: Mcintosh 93,592, Hogsett ). "We 78,241. 1996 Results: Mcintosh 122,288, Carmichael (D) 83,478, Zimmerman (L) 4,662. have what we feel is very • 1998 Results: Mcintosh (R) 99,584, Boles (D) 62,426, Federle (L) 2,236. 2000 Forecast: continued on page 8 continued on page 8 Thursday, June 3 1999 Page 8of8

With Mcintosh headed for a gubernatorial showdown, the 2nd becomes a nationally contested .- TICKER open seat. Mcintosh district director Jim Huston may run, but we're hearing Mcintosh will want him to run his gubernatorial campaign. Also eying the race for Republicans is State Rep. Jeff T A ·p E Linder of Shelbyville, although he has not had to run a tough race in some time. His aborted • coup attempt against Paul Mannweiler may hurt him with some party people. Reed is signaling strong evidence," said that she's in. Key man to watch is Mike Pence, the 1988-90 nominee whose radio show runs on Sheriff John Buncich. "I five district stations. His sister ran Mcintosh's '94 campaign. If he gets in, he'll be the man to feel confident that there's beat. Democrats appear to be setting their sights on 1994 nominee Joe Hogsett, with Mellinger's enough information to war· name at the top of a fallback list. Best bet is that if Hogsett gets in, the state and national rant prosecution of several Democrats will try to do all they can to clear the field in H R people." order to save resources. But Joe has some major making up OrSe 8C8 to do with Big Labor. Should that happen, Horse Race sees U.S. Attorney Jon DeGuilio this headed for the Toss-Up zone. Status: Leans R. will resign his Northern Congressional District 9: Republican: Kevin Shaw Kellems, Michael Bailey. Indiana post and join Democrat: U.S. Rep. Baron Hill. Libertarian: Open. Geography: New Albany Jeffersonville, Barnes & Thornberg. Madison, Nashville and SE Indiana. 1994 results: Hamilton 91,459 (D), Leising (R) 84,315. 1996 Results: Hamilton (D) 128,885, Leising (R) 97,747, Feeney (L) 2,315. 1998 Results: Hill U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar told (D) 92,477, Leising (R) 87,278, Feeney (L) 2,397. 2000 Forecast: Kellems formed exploratory an Indianapolis Armed committee and issued nine questions on Social Security, educational choice, defense spending Forces Day banquet that and Chinese espionage. Clark County business and civic leader Ned Pfau will chair Kellems' "neither our economic pros· campaign. Other active supporters include Scottsburg Mayor Bill Graham, Madison Mayor Al perity nor a host of domes· Huntington, State Sen. Johnny Nugent and State Auditor Connie Nass. Anti-abortion crusader tic concerns should detract Michael Bailey can be expected to enter the GOP primary in a continued effort to boost his our attention from the fact issue. That contrast could help Kellems in that the news media will be engaged during the pri­ that we are at war in Europe mary season. While Kellems will be a better organized and funded Republican than Leising was for the first time since and will be counting on strength at the top of the national and state tickets to help, we see this as World War II." an uphill battle (no pun intended) against a freshman Democrat with a formidable organization • that pulled out a late victory in 1998. Like the 2nd CD, this seat and the 8th CD next door will likely become top battlegrounds as both national parties fight for control of the House. Status: Leans D.

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