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Malaysia Pavilion REIT

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Malaysia Pavilion REIT PP16832/01/2012 (029059) Malaysia Initiating Coverage 19 January 2012 Hold (new) Pavilion REIT A Malaysia retail icon Share price: RM1.09 Target price: RM1.10 (new) A class of its own. Pavilion REIT’s (PavREIT) key attraction lies in its asset portfolio and the jewel in its crown, Pavilion Kuala Lumpur (KL) Mall. Strategically located in the heart of Kuala Lumpur’s prime tourist Wong Wei Sum, CFA and shopping district, this mall caters predominantly to the upper middle [email protected] to high income group, and is one of only 4 prime retail malls in the (603) 2297 8679 country. We initiate coverage on PavREIT with a Hold rating and RM1.10 DCF-based target price. It currently trades at a 5.5% yield. Neo Hon Mun [email protected] 2nd largest M-REIT. PavREIT’s appeal is enhanced by its status as the (603) 2297 8690 2nd largest M-REIT by market capitalisation (RM3.27b) and asset size (RM3.5b). The portfolio comprises Pavilion KL Mall (RM3.4b) and Pavilion Tower (RM0.1b). Given its relatively young assets of 4 years in age, there is scope for growth in rental yields. Room for inorganic growth. With its low debt-to-asset ratio of 20%, Stock Information there is potential to leverage another RM2.2b for immediate yield Description: Predominantly a retail Real Estate Investment accretive acquisitions. PavREIT has been granted rights of first refusals Trust (REIT) with 2 initial assets - Pavilion Kuala Lumpur Mall and Pavilion Tower. (ROFR) to purchase two other malls and an extension of the Pavilion KL Mall worth approximately RM1.5b, which are only expected to be Ticker: PREIT MK ready for injection from 2H13 onwards. Shares Issued (m): 3,000.0 Market Cap (RM m): 3,270.0 3-mth Avg Daily Volume (m): 10.76 Resilient earnings. Pavilion KL Mall has a diversified and sizeable KLCI: 1,517.38 tenant base of over 450, which comprises mainly regional and Free float (%): 26.3 international brand names. No single tenant contributes over 10% of Major Shareholders: % total revenue, we estimate. With 67% of occupied NLA expiring only in Datuk Lim siew Choon 28.2 2013, its near-term earnings base are resilient. The mall has been Datin Tan Kewi Yong 9.4 chalking up higher average rentals psf despite opening for business at Qatar Holding LLC 36.1 the onset of the global financial crisis in Sept 2007. Key Indicators Initiate coverage with a Hold rating. With its status as the 2nd largest Net cash / (debt) (RM m): (637.1) NTA/shr (RM): 0.94 M-REIT, hands-on management team and its superior asset quality, Gearing (x): 0.2 PavREIT deserves a premium valuation. We value PavREIT at RM1.10, based on DCF valuation method. This implies 2012 gross dividend yield Historical Chart of 5.5% (vs. CMMT’s 5.9% and SunREIT’s 5.8%). 1.10 PREIT MK Equity Pavilion REIT– Summary Earnings Table 1.08 FYE Dec (RM m) 2011F 2012F 2013F 1.06 Revenue 25.8 319.0 327.7 1.04 EBITDA 18.0 224.6 231.9 1.02 Recurring Net Profit 13.6 170.1 175.9 1.00 Recurring Basic EPS (Sen) 0.5 5.7 5.8 0.98 EPS growth (%) - NA 3.1 0.96 DPS (Sen) 0.5 6.0 6.1 0.94 Dec-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jan-1 PER * 20.1 19.3 18.7 EV/EBITDA (x) * 18.2 17.4 16.9 Div Yield (%) * 5.3 5.5 5.6 Performance: P/BV(x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 52-week High/Low RM1.1/RM0.9 Net Gearing (%) 20.1 20.0 20.0 ROE (%) 0.5 6.0 6.2 1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD ROA (%) 0.4 4.7 4.8 Absolute (%) 4.8 na na na - Consensus Net Profit (RM m) - 169.1 176.7 Relative (%) 2.1 na na na 0.9 * Annualised for 2011 (listed on 8 Dec’11); Source: Maybank IB Kim Eng Hong Kong is a subsidiary of Malayan Banking Berhad SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Pavilion REIT Business background Malaysian REIT’s largest retail asset. PavREIT is the largest retail REIT and the 2nd largest Malaysian REIT by asset size at RM3.5b (based on appraised value). PavREIT will comprise 2 properties: Pavilion KL Mall and Pavilion Tower (office). The mall was purchased at RM3.2b (appraised value of RM3.4b) and it will account for 96% of total portfolio value. These properties form part of an integrated mixed-use urban commercial development which includes two blocks of luxury serviced apartments known as Pavilion Residences (not included in the PavREIT), and a proposed block of serviced suites (not built and will not be included in PavREIT). Table 1: Porffolio of properties in Pavilion REIT Pavilion Kuala Lumpur Mall Pavilion Tower Type Retail Office Appraised value as at 1 June 2011 (RM`000) 3,415,000 128,000 Purchase consideration (RM ‘000) 3,190,300 123,500 Subject properties weighting (by Appraised Value) (%) 96.4 3.6 NLA (sq ft) 1,335,119 167,407 GFA (sq ft) 2,202,557 243,288 Number of tenancies as at 1 June 2011 462 19 Occupancy rate as at 1 June 2011 (%) 98.0 64.5 Number of car park bays |------------------------------- 2,427 ---------------------------| Shopper traffic for 2010 31 m .n.a. Sources: Trust Manager Investment cases Merit 1: Well located in the heart of Kuala Lumpur Strategically located along Jalan Bukit Bintang. The properties are located in the heart of the prime shopping destination in the country, the Bukit Bintang area, and also on the fringe of the Central Business District. According to CBRE, Jalan Bukit Bintang (or Bukit Bintang road) is Malaysia’s version of Singapore’s Orchard Road, Japan’s Ginza, New York’s Fifth Avenue and Hong Kong’s Central. Bukit Bintang has been a popular shopping and entertainment destination of Kuala Lumpur, both for the locals and tourists alike since the 50’s. Its catchment area spans the entire Klang Valley with a population of 6m. Pavilion KL Mall adds flavour to Bukit Bintang. Pavilion KL Mall complements the existing malls along Jalan Bukit Bintang which targets the mass markets, except Starhill Gallery. Nonetheless, there is minimal overlap with Starhill Gallery which has successfully positioned itself as a niche player offering primarily luxury watches (see map overleaf). In our view, Pavilion KL Mall is arguably the most successful mall in Bukit Bintang today. 19 January 2012 Page 2 of 42 Pavilion REIT Map 1: Pavilion KL adds to the attraction of Jalan Bukit Bintang (Bukit Bintang road) Pavilion KL Mall ROFR: Pavilion KL mall extension See Map 2 Starhill Farenheit Gallery 88 The Bukit Bintang area, that is increasingly popular Lot 10 among tourists and locals ROFR: farenheit88 BB Plaza Sungai Wang Plaza Low Yat Plaza Berjaya Times Square Sources: Google Map, Maybank IB; Denotes location of Pavilion KL mall extension Served by 32 3-5 Star rated hotels in the vicinity. There are over 32 hotels (with over 13,000 rooms) that are conveniently located in the vicinity of the properties or easily accessible by taxi or monorail (see Appendix 8 for the list of hotels). These hotels provide an immediate catchment of business and tourist travellers. Upcoming hotels currently in plan or under construction sprouting around the city include Grand Hyatt Kuala Lumpur with 412 rooms (scheduled to open in 2012), W Hotel & Residences at Jalan Ampang with 150 rooms (scheduled to open in 2016), Banyan Tree Signatures comprising 441 units of Private Residences, 51 units of Service Residences and 50 luxury suites (scheduled to open in 2015), and Four Seasons Hotel. On the fringe of Kuala Lumpur (KL Sentral), the 208-room St Regis Kuala Lumpur is scheduled to commence operation in 2014. Easily accessible. The properties are easily accessible via various modes of public transport. Besides the taxi services and public buses, the properties are within walking distance to two monorail stations – the Bukit Bintang and Raja Chulan stations (approximately 250-300 metres away to each station). The mall also provides concierge services for the convenience of shoppers, in addition to its 2,427 car park bays. 19 January 2012 Page 3 of 42 Pavilion REIT New MRT improves connectivity. Under the Greater Kuala Lumpur National Key Economic Areas (NKEA) initiative (encompassed under the ETP blueprint), a new Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) line (Sg Buloh- Kajang) is currently in its planning stages to improve public transportation and connectivity between existing rail-based networks. This new MRT line is 51km long with 31 stations planned along the route, and aims to serve a total population of 1.2 million. The project is expected to be completed and operational by 2016. New MRT to increase footfall in the long run. One of the 31 stations of the new MRT line will be located approximately 250m away from Pavilion KL Mall, at the junction of Jalan Bukit Bintang and Jalan Sultan Ismail (see map below). When fully operational, this would help improve shopper traffic to Bukit Bintang (and also Pavilion KL Mall). Map 2: Location map of the new Bukit Bintang MRT station See Map 1 Pavilion KL, 250m away Source: Syarikat Prasarana Negara Berhad Higher capacity with the MRT. The new MRT line is designed with higher capacity in mind compared to the existing intra-city rail network. Upon completion in 2016, the new MRT line’s daily ridership is expected to be 442,000 per day more than Putra LRT and Monorail’s present daily ridership of 210,000 and 60,000 respectively.
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