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The WorldBank

FOt OMCLALUSE ONLY

MIC1f11()RI(:4lIE c(-,)py

Rep;rt. No :P- 5928-P'AX Type: (PR)

Title:Public Disclosure Authorized 1992 FLOOD DAMAGERESTORATION I Autfcorr: ASSI MAKOPOULOSD.S. B. No P-5928-PAI Ext.:82576 tioom:D10007 Dept.:SA3IE

-_~AR I_on 0r THE

PRESIDET OF THE !NTERNUIATIOADEVLO T ASSOCTIION Public Disclosure Authorized TO TIE REECOTI DIRECTORS ON A

PROPOSEDCREDIT

OF SD1)72.8 MLION TO ISLAI C REULIC OF Public Disclosure Authorized FORA

1992 FLOODDAMAGE PROJECT

FEBRURY3, 1993 Public Disclosure Authorized

This documenthas a restricted dstrbuto and may be wed by recipie ondyIn the performanceof their omficil dtits contents may ot otwise be lscleed wibou Wor Bas audtoriaton. (October1992) Currency Unit - Rupee (Res) Rs - US$0.4158 lUS$1.00 - Re 25.00

WIGTS AND I~StURS

eusec - cubicfeet per second cm m 0.3937 ich ha - 2.4711 acres a - meter (3.28 feet) km kilometer (0.62 miles) mgd Million gallons per day Maf million acre-feet VA ~ ~ -millimeters NW 1,000 kilowatts

ADIB - Asian Development lank - Azad Jaumu and Kahbmir CUD. - Couuicuation and Works Department. FFC - Iederal Fload Commission GOP - Gomerment of Pakistan IW - International Moetary Fnd NM - National Highway Authority mP - North West Frontier Province MsD. - Provinial Education Departmet, PID. - Provicial Irrigation Departmets PIDRC - Provincial Flood Dmage Restoration Cell 80 - Statemet of Expenditure WAPDA- Water and Power Development Authority

July 1 -- June 30 FOR OMCIL USEONLY

PAKISTAII

1992 FLOODDANAGE RESTORATIUN PROJECT

Credit and Project Sumarw

Borrowers Islamic Republic of Pakistan

Beneficiariess FederalFlood Commisbion (throughthe Ministryof 'Waterand Power) NationalHighway Authority ProvincialGovernments of Balochistan,North West Frontier, and Sindh,and Azad Jamu and Ksh4mir

Amount: -DR 72.8 million (US$100.0million equivalent)

Terms: Standard,with 35 years maturity OnlendintTerms: The proceedsof the IDA credit will be retainedpartly by the Governmentof Pakistanfor use by the FederalFlood Comnission with the rest being made available to the National Righway Authority,the Provincesand AJK throughbudgetary allocations on a first-come-first-serve basis (based on implementation performance and credit utilization). FinancingPlan: Local Foreian Total -U-- S$ million--

Government& Other Donors 110.9 36.3 147.2 IDA 65.8 34.2 100.0 Ongoing World BanklIDA Portfolio 36.7 13.3 50.0 ADB 64.0 36.0 100.0

TOTAL 119.8

EconomicRate of Returns Not applicable

Staff Aprraisal Reogrt: Not applicable; a Technical Annex is provided.

&28s IBRD No. 24352

This document has a resticted distributionand may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their officialduties. Its contents may not otherwisebe disclosedwithout WorldBank authorization. EORRANDUMAND RECOMMEDUTIONOF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTMRNATIONALDEVELOPIMT ASSOCIATION TO THE EECUTI DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSEDCREDIT TO THE ISLAMC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN FOR A 1992 FLOODDANAGE RESTORATION PROJECT

1. I submit for your approval the following mmorandum and recommendation on a proposeddevelopment credit to the IslamicRepublic of Pakistanfor SDR 72.8 million(US$100.0 million equivalent). The proposedcredit would help finance the priorityinvestment requirements of rehab:.litationand reconstructionof publicinfrastructure affected by the 1992 flooddisaster. The proposedcredit would be on standard IDA terms, with a maturity of 35 years with 10 years grace. The project would be cofinanced by the AsianDevelopment ank (ADB) for US$1.00.0 million equivalent. The proceeds of the IDA credit will be retained partly by the Government of Pakistan (GOP) for use by the Federal Flood Commission with the rest being made available to the National Highway Authority, the Provinces and Azad Jammuand Kashmir, through budgetary allocations on a first-come-first-serve basis (basedon implementationperformance and creditutilization).

2. Countr=lSectorBackaround. The IslamicRepublic of Pakistan covers an area of about 780,000sq km subdividedinto four provinces: Balochistan, North West Frontier (NWFP),Punjab and Sindh, and Azad Jamm.and Kashmir(AJK). Pakistan'spopulation is estimatedat about116.0 million (1991) and is growing at an annualrate of 3.12. Per capitaGNP was US$410,with about 301 of the populationhaving an income below the absolute poverty line. 3. With the exceptionof the steepmountains and hillsin the north,most of Pakistanis eitherarid or semi-arid. Although the mean annual precipitation is about 600 me, rainfallis erraticand much of the Indus Plains,where crop cultivationis concentrated,receives an averageof less than 150 mm per annum. Hence,irrigation is essentialfor most agriculturalproduction. About 901 of the value of agriculturalproduction comes from the 16 millionha of irrigated land.

4. Floodsin Pakistanoccur most frequentlyand are more extensiveand damagingin the IndusPlains, but have recentlybecome more devastatingin the north due to the cumulativechanges in hydrological and topographic conditions that have occurredthere. Floods in the Indus Plainsare mainly causedby spillagefrom rivers during high flowsgenerated in the upper catchmentareas of the Himalayas and Koh-Hindu-Kush. However, in the north during July and August when the heavy rainfall coincides with the peak from snow-melt, catchment areas of rivers experience rapid buildup of exceptionally heavy flows and carry large sediment loads which create erosion and flooding. A considerable part of these catchment areas and riverbeds with stesp gradients and limited valley storage are in the north and outside Pakistan's national boundaries.

5. Rivers in the Indus Plains are prone to channel degradation, and gradualrise In the elevationof riverbeds which also leadsto the deterioration of their capacity to carry high flows. This Is a natural characteristic that to some extent has been intensified by heavy withdrawals for irrigation and the construction of storage reservoirs and diversion barrages. About half the annual dischargesof the Indus and its tributariesare divertedin Pakistan into one of the world'slargest contiguousirrigation canal systems. In this system, some 33 million acres of the Indus Plains are served by about 38,000 miles of canals and by two major storage dams: Mangla Cam on the and Tarbels Dam on the Indus. Other key componentsof the system are 17 major irrigationbarrages.

6. Flood protectionworks have been constructedin Pakistan over several generations;there exist more than 3,000 miles of flood protection embankments and numerous spurs and river training structures. Major dams in upper catebment areas of the Indus tributaries, together with the detention reservoirs and diversionworks have been successfullyutilized to protect against flash floods and to minimize flood damage during past decades. Even so, serious damage from exceptionallyhigh flows still occur due to overtopping and/or breaching of protective works. Since 1948, exceptionallyhigh flood flows (in excess of 800,000 cusecs) have been recorded eight timeslJat various gauging stations at the five major barrages on the .

7. The 1992 Floods. During the 1992 monsoon season,Pakistan experienced exceptionallyhea-'y rainfall which resulted in widespread floods in many parts of the country. The heavy rains in August saturated soils over much of the catchment area, leaving little capacity to absorb additionalmoisture. As a result,when additionaltorrential rains occurredin the north on September8 and 9, 1992 the runoff began almost immediatelycausing flash floods. The resulting torrents caused unprecedentedflows in the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers in Punjab province and in the Indus River and its smaller tributaries. Conditions were exacerbatedbecause storage capacity at the major dams and detentionreservoirs was already fully utilized. The results were serious flooding and landslides that would have caused serious damage under any circumstances. According to Federal Flood Commission records, the flood peaks were classified as "exceptionallyhigh" throughoutthe Jhelum and Chenab Rivers and on the main stem of the Indus River, between its confluencewith the Chenab and . Elsewherealong the Indus, the recorded peaks were in the "very high" category. The peak at on the Jhelum River representsan unusually high flood with a recurrence interval of between 40 and 50 years, or with 2S to 2.51 probabilityof occurring in any year.

8. During the floods, the Federal Flood Warning Center (FFWC) and Flood ControlCenter (FCC) issuedflood forecastsand warnings and thousandsof people were evacuated in time from the flood-affectedareas preventingwhat could have been an even greater disaster in terms of the loss of life. However, because PFWC's forecastingcapability is at present impairedby the poor conditionof the telemetry system which has outlived its useful life and by the inherent shortcomingsof the two weather radars currentlyin operation,it was impossible to prepare accurate flood forecasts before, during and immediately after the heavy rainfall. If the telemetrysystem had been fully operationaland if more suitableweather radar and up-to-date flood routing techniqueswere available, the loss of life probably could have been even much less than it was. Replacementand upgrading of the telemetry system and the procurementof more suitableweather radar is being carriedout under the ongoingADB-financed Flood Protection Sector Project.

1/ Including 1992, with record flows of 1.0 million cusecs. 9. Assessment of Flood Damage. The floods affected all four provinces as well as the northern areas and resulted in considerable loss of life, widespread damage to crops, infrastructureand property. The heavy rains, landslidesand inundationsdestroyed or severelydamaged over 9609000 houses and affected about 4.8 million inhabitants (reportedly 1,200 people lost their lives). Governmentestimates of the impact of the flood indicate total damages of US$2.4 billionequivalent, of which about US$1.9billion is for loss ot domage to the private sector (such as physical assets, crops, and livestock)and US$0.5 billion for loss and damage to public infrastructure.The sector hardeat hit by the floods was agricultura,with substantiallosses in cotton, sugarci.ne,and rice. Estimates of crop damage indicate a decline in output between 4 to 7X. Damage to infrastructuredisrupted transportation and essentialpublic services. Highways were flooded or blocked by landslides, a number of bridges were destroyedor damaged, and about 900 miles of irrigationcanals and water channels were badly damaged.

10. The impact of the floods has also worsened the economic outlook for the currentfiscal year. GDP growth is projectedto be 1.5X lower and reach only about 4.72. Expenditures for relief operations and rehabilitation of infrastructure,combined with revenue shortfalls,are expected to increase the budget deficit by 0.6 to 0.81 of GDP. In the absence of further measures, the overall fiscal deficit would reach 7.8-8.0X of GDP. %n the monetary side, incrementalfinancing requirements for commodityoperations, extension of credit for recoveryof agriculturalactivities, and higher public sector borrowing are expected to increase the inflation rate from the targeted 81 to 11.52. The direct balance of payments impact is estimated on the order of US$710 million, of which an estimatedUS$465 million comes from losses in export receipts and US$245 million from higher imports for flood relief and rehabilitation. The current accountdeficit could increaseto US$2.9 billion or 6.11 of GDP. It is clear that the effectsof the flood have reinforcedthe need to tighten financial policies to improve macroeconomic balances. The Government has recognized that the primary impetus for restoring macroeconomic stability must come from domestic policy efforts. In this regard, discussions with the IMF and the. Bank are continuing.

11. InternationalSurport. As soon as the magnitude of the damage by the floods became apparent,the Governmentestablished a cabinet committee (chaired by the Minister of the Environmentand Urban Affairs) to coordinate relief and damagerectification efforts. The Prime Minister establisheda flood relief fund to which many internationaland local donors contributed. The international communityresponded quickly to the flood events, 4n particularto relieve the plight of those rendered homeless, and assistance was quickly provided or cammitted. Most of the efforts were monitoredby the Islamabad office of the United Nations Devel-opmentProgramme (UNDP). As of October 31, 1992, the total cash and material commitmentsregistered by UNDP amounted to nearly $31 million equivalentfrom bilateraland non-governmentorganization sourcws. Twenty-seven countries,the United Nations Disaster Relief Office,United Nations Children's Pund and the InternationalFederation of the Red Cross provided relief assistance in the form of unvalued material supplies such as tents, blankets, food, medicines and the use of helicoptersand airlift facilities.

12. In addition to proposed IDA support, Pakistan expects to receive substantialother financialsupport for its rehabilitationand recovery effort from Germany and Saudi Arabia. The InternationalMonetary Fund is providingSDR - 4 -

189.55million (equivalentto about US$260million) (252 of quota)under its EmergencyAssistance Facility approved by its Board on November25, 1992. ADB, which jointlyappraised the proposedproject with IDA, is also providinga loan from its SpecialFunds resource' in an amountequivalent to US$100,to support the reconstructionprogram (approved by the ADB Board on December15, 1992). 13. IDA's Resoonse. In keeping vith IDA'. long-standingpolicy of respondingquickly to emergencies,the Bank's field office in Islamabadon September10, 1992began monitoring the flooddamage and liaisingwith potential donors. Afterthe Bank receiveda requestfrom the Goverumentfor assistancein late September,an Ad Hoc AdvisoryGroup, drawing on expertiseon emergency operationsfrom various parts of the Bank,was immediatelyestablished to advise on projectpreparation and designmatters. At this stage the Bank began to liaisewith ADB whichsubsequently received a similarrequest from the Government for assistance.In October,ADB and IDA jo*ntlyappraised the proposedproject (which both institutionsnegotiated in November, 1992 and January, 1993 respectively). 14. LessonsLearned from Previous IDA Oserations.IDA experiencewith the three previousflood restorationprojectsl' has been largelysuccessful. In general,all threeprojects (approved after floodsduring 1974, 1976 and 1988) achievedtheir targetsof restoringflood damaged infrastructure and assisting in economicrecovery. Further, each project contributed to reducingthe impact of subsequentfloods. In the foreseeablefuture, improvement of the existing flood protectionsystem of leveesor bunds along riversis the only practical means for protectionagainst floods. (Appendix1 providesan overviewof the threeprevious floods.) A technicallybetter solution would be constructionof a systemof reservoirswith sufficientcapacity to provide storageand thus controlfloods. However,there are limitedpossibilities for the construction of sucha complexsystem at reasonablecost, and no suchdevelopment would appear economicallyfeasible in the near future. The nature of the works to be undertakenunder the proposedproject is such thatthey would have littleimpact on the overallrisk of futuredamage caused by floodsof the magnituderecently experienced.Nevertheless, such works vould restoredamaged infrastructure and stimulate a return to normalcy as did previous flood damage restoration projects financed by IDA. 15. Major constraints experienced during the implementation of past projects include occasional shortages of local funds duringthe early stagesof the implementation phase when specialaccounts were not yet operational.The initial unfamiliarity of many field divisions with Implementation arrangements, delays in preparing designand cost estimatesand shortagesin technicalstaff also contributed to delays. The overall performance of the provincial implementingagencies was satisfactory considering that restoration works with a total value of about US$85.0million were executedunder the IDA and ADB financed1988 FloodDamage Restoration Project within a periodof 3-1/2years. Implementingagencies and consultants are now fullyfamiliar with IDA and ADB l/ Credit Amount Closing Credit Flood Proiect AmountDisbursed Date 466-PAK 1973 FloodRehabilitation Program US$35 US$34.5 12/76 683-PAR 1976 A Flood DamageRestoration Project US$40 US$40.0 12/78 2003-PAl 1988 FloodDamage Restoration Project US$40 US$33.7 12/91 requirements which should help contribute to the successful implementation of the proposed project. Retroactive finacing was of great be.aefit to the Goverment during each of the three previous emergency recovery projects, and is also proposed for this project.

16. 3aionJle for IDA Inolvement. The proposed assistance is a further expression of IDA's comitment to the country in mseeting, its development objectives generally,and to restoring its economic balance as rapidly as possible with the least disruption. The assistancewould anable the repair and restorationof past investments,and the resumptionto implementationof other on-going proJects finanmed by IDA. Providingemergency assistance for the fourth tim since x973 to repair damage caused by floods, would enable the Government to build on pst ivestments, and would encourage continued Government csmmitment to and improvement of flood mitigation measures already in place with funding to be provided by the ADD. 17. The economic and social infrastructure sectors in which assistance is needed are critical to the country's well being, and are areas of long-standing IDA involvement in Pakistan. IDA's assistance would eaze the Government's alreadyconstrained financial capabilities, and reducethe need to divertits own limitedresources from otherpriority projects and programs.

18. Prolect Objectives. The project's main objective is to assist the Government in implementinga nationalprogram to restore vital infrastructure destroyed or damaged in the 1992 flood in order to minimiie the disruption to economic activity and social services. A sectoral approach to project design ha. been adopted in order to respond flexibly a-d efficientlyto the country'sneeds. The projectwould also acceleratethe start of sele.ctedtop priorityworks to protect Investmentsin infrastructurethat survived the 1992 flood.

19. ProlectDescrl2tion. The proposedproject comprises a three-yeartime sliceof the Government's"rogram to restoreflood-damaged public infrastructure. This programcoveros (Part I) repairand restorationof federal and provincial infrastructure,includings roads and bridges;irrigation, drainage and flood protectionworks; and primaryeducation and basic healthfacilities; and (Part IY) restoration of infrstructure mainly provided by Government enterprises such as railways, power, and telecommunications. While the Government has requested external assistance for the firstpart, it intends to have the concerned public enterprises assume most, if not all, of the burden for the second part.

20. The selection of subprojects to be implemented under the project will be draw from Part I of the Goveoment's restoration program, with subprojects to be selected and lmplemented in accordance with the criteria as set out in Appendix 2. The scope of works and, in particular,restoration standards and implementationarrangements, are definedin Appendix3. In principle, the projectwould restore facilities to pre-1992flood conditions but with allowances for improvementswhen justifiedto ensure that the restoredfacilities meet currentenvironment, quality and efficiencystandards.

21. Pro3ect ImoleM=entaton. The Federal Flood Commission (FPC) of the GOP'. Ministryof Water and Power would be the CoordinatingAgency for the overall project. Implementing agencies responsible for implementation of their respective parts of the project are: (a) National Highway Authority (MM) of GOP's Ministry of Communications would be responsiblefor restorationof national highways under its jurisdictionand certain selectedworks under the jurisdictionof the provincial authorities.

(b) Provincial Departmentsof Communicationsand Works (CWDs) would be respon.Able for restoration of provincial and district (farm-to- market) roads under their jurisdiction,and of basic health facilities in their respective provinces and AJK; and in NWFP and AJK for restorationof primary educationfacilities as well.

(c) ProvincialDepartments of Irrigation (PIDs)would be responsiblefor restorationof irrigation,drainage, flood control, and river training facilities in their respectiveprovinces.

(d) Provincial Departmentsof Education (PEDs)would be responsible for restorationof primary education facilitiesin Punjab and Sindh.

22. A Provincial Flood Damage RestorationCell (PFDRC)would coordinate overall project implementationfor each province. In addition, a firm of consultants will be engaged under the project to assist the FFC and the implementingagencies. The responsibilitiesof the implementingagencies and an outline of terms of reference for the consulting services are shown in Appendix 4.

23. Pro2ram Cost and Proposed Financint Plan. Total program cost is estimatedat US$483.4 million equivalent,of which US$397.2 million is for Part I and US$86.2 million for Part II of the Government'sprogram. The foreign exchagne component is about US$119.8 million equivalent (302) and taxes and duties are estimated at about US$40.0 million equivalent. The IDA credit of US$100.0 million equivalent and ADB's contributionof a similar amount would finance about 50X of the cost of Part I. In addition, funds (about US$50 million) from existingWorld Bank/IDA-financedongoing projects,with scopes of work that already cover the types of activities to be supported under the proposed project, will be utilized for the flood recovery program. The balance would be provided by the Government and other potential donors. A breakdown of project costs and the financing plan are shown in Schedule A. Amounts and methods of procurementand of disbursements,and the disbursementschedule are shown in ScheduleB. A timetableof key projectprocessing events and the status of Bank Group operations in Pakistan are presented in Schedules C and D, respectively. A map is also attached,and a TechnicalAnnex is provided in lieu of a Staff Appraisal Report.

24. RetroactiveFinancing. Because of the emergencynature of the work which required an immediateresponse, and the critical need for IDA assistance, retroactive financing would be provided to restore vital services, for expendituresincurred on project activities since September 10, 1992 when the IDA, through its field office in Islamabad, first became actively involved in assisting the Government. Certain emergency works for which contracts have already been entered into and works have already been carried out will be revieied by IDA on a case-by-case basis for eligibility for retroactive financing. Works undertaken as an interim measure to rrovide temporary repair to damaged infrastructure will not be eligible for retroactive financing. It is - 7 - anticipatedthat the totalexpenditure -ligible for retroactivefinancing will not exceedUS$20.0 million or 202 of the creditamount.

25. Proiect Sustainabilitv.Effective operation of flood monitoring systems,both withinPakistan and in collaborationwith India,is essentialfor the sustained operation of restored structures. Because the flood flows take severaldays to reach the downstreamareas most vulnerableto flooding,early warning systems can play a major role in reducingfuture flood damage. Improvementof flood mitigationmeasures, already put in place urder ADB's ongoing Flood ProtectionSector Project (approvedafter the 1988 flood)9would provide for an upgraded and improvedtelemetry system, at an estimated cost of US$10.0 million (Appendix 6). The improved system would provide greater capabilitiesfor floodforecasting and warningsystems in the catchmentsof the IndusRiver and itstributaries. In addition, complementarytechnical assistance will includefloodplain mapping, consideration of floodplainzoning, preparation of a floodpreparedness manual and othernon-structural measures to preventflood damage. Becausethe Governmenthas requestedADB to securegrant financing for these improvements,no additionalcomponents for flood mitigationhave been included in the IDA credit. 26. Agreed Actions. Selectioncriteria, scope of work, restoration standards,and implementationand procurementarrangements, which are si!ilarto those agreedbetween GOP and ADB, have been agreedwith Governmentand were reconfirmedduring negotiations. The followingactions are conditionsof effectiveness:(a) the PlanningCommission's Proforma 1 (UmbrellaPC-1) for the projectwould be approvedby theGovernment's Executive Committee of theNational EconomicCouncill (b) the FFC will have signeda contractvith the project consultant,;and (e) all conditionsfor effectivenessof the ADB loanwill have been satisfied. 27. EnvironmentalAspects. The projectwould have stronglypositive socio-economicimpacts by contributingto the restorationof transportation service,egricultural productivity,flood protection, education and healtheare to pre-disasterlevels. It will be neutral in its impact on the natural environment,which realisticallycan only be restoredby naturalprocesses. A fundamentalissue is the need to reducethe hazardof damageand loss of life from futurefloods and rain-inducedlandslides which is beingaddressed by ADB. Thereis urgentneed to addressthese objectives over the long-termin a niational forestconservation/management strategy. Local positive impacts can be obtained from provisionsto improvestorm drainage,erosion control and resistanceto flood damagein restorationdesigns. The potentialnegative impacts are also local--primarily those associated with earthmoving, demolition and construction during restorationof civil works. For virtuallyall the facilitiesto be restoredno significantresettlement is involved. If resettlementis required for some facilities,then IDA would require the necessary studies and consultativeprocess to be carriedout before any decisionsare takon. The projecthas been rateda "B"based on a limitedenvironmental assessment carried out duringproject appraisal. 28. ProgectBenefits. The primaryemphasis of the projectis to restore the pre-floodcapacities of criticalinfrastructure by linkingdamaged portions to undamagedportions, and makingentire systems (i.e.9 irrigation, drainage, flood control and roads) operational again. The project will also restore primaryeducation facilities and basichealth facilities lost in the flood. In - 8 - view of the substantialsunk cost in most of thooofacilitiea, these lnvestments have high rates of economic and social return. A. a resultof the project, growth of the agriculture sector should return to average pre-flood annul levels. In fact, the deposition of silt ovea large areas of agricultural land could provide extra fertility during the next few crop seasons . The main beneficiariesof the projectwill be the ruralpe'ple who vere most affectedby the floodsand who relymainly on agricultureand on farm to arket linkagesby meansof the road infrastruccurefor theirlivelihood. The restorationof bsic educationand healthservices in rural areaswill also mainlybenefit village dwellerswhose socialindicators are the worat in Pakistan. 29. Rlaka. The risks to successfulimplementation of the project,such as insufficientgoverrnent budgetary allocation or poor performance of the implementing agencies, are consideredmanageable. The Governmenthas reiterated its high priority for the program and has already initiated restoration meaures vith its own resources. In addition, the performance of PFC9 as the coordingatng agency, and that of the Implementingagencies in executing the 1988 Flood Damage RestorationProject, was quite satisfactory, indicating that the implementation arrangements proposed for this projvct are sound. In addition,these agencies will be strongly supported by consultants whose performance under the previous project was also satisfactory. Finally, while the statistical probabilities are remote, the recurrenceof exceptionalfloods cannot be ruled out. The improvements proposed in floodforecasting and floodwarning should ensure that flood damage to the economy as well as loss of life would be less in the future. The Federal Government and the provinces have already made a significant start in this direction and have given the highest priority to restoring flood damaged infrastructure. Therefore, project risks are considered to be small. 30. Some of the facilities to be restored under the proposed project are located in AJK, an area over which India and Pakistan bave been In dispute since 1947. By includitg finanee for those facilities In the proposed credit, IDA does not intend thereby to prejudice the detemination of the claim of the parties to the dispute. 31. Recommendation.I am satisfiedthat the proposeddevelopment credit wouldcomply with the Articlesof Agreemet of the Associationand recomsundthat the ExecutiveDirectors approve the proposedcredit.

Lewis T. Preston President

Attachments Washington,D.C. February3, 1993 8ceimdule A Page I of 2

1992 LOOD DAG@ RPSTO, 0 OJRC

Rstiated Coa and PinAcias ?la

Component Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total ------Re million-----U- $ million-----

PART I (ExternalAssistance Requested)

Road&& Bridges 39783 29485 69268 151.3 99.4 250.7 Trrigation& Flood ContTol 19632 408 2,040 65.3 16.3 81.6 schools/HealthFacilities 19389 73 1,462 55.6 2.9 58.5 Consultants _30 30 160 1.2 6.4 Subtotal 69934 2,996 9,930 217.4 119.8 397.2

PART II (To be fundedmainly by GovernmentAencies)

PublicBuilding. - - 494 - - 19.8 Water Supply - - 171 - 6.8 PowerInstallation - - 56 - - 2.2 Railways - - 200 - - 8.0 Water & Power Distribution - - 413 - - 16.5 Telocommunications - - 115 - - 4.6 Local GovernmentRoads - - 707 - - 28.3

SubtotalAl 2.156 - 86.2

GRAID TOTAL - - 12.086 - - 483.4

a/ ExcludesUS$28.9 million for equipmentwhich was includedIn the Government's initialeatimate for damage costs, but which the IDA missionjudged wa not directly relatedto the restorationof infrastructure. - 10 -

ScheduleA Page 2 of 2

PARISTAN 1992FLOOD DAMAGERESTORATION PROJEC

FinanclnaPlan (US$million)

GOP & Public Proposed Existing Proposed Other Local Enter- IDA WI/IDA ADB Donors Govt prises Credit Portfolio Loan Total -15------us$million------

PART I (ExternalAssistance Requested)

CivilWorks 147.2 - - 91.8 50.Oa 96.8 385.8 RemovableBridges - - - 5.0 - - 5.0 Consultants - - - 3.2 - 3.2 6.4 Subtotal 147.2 - - 100.0 50.0 100.0 397.2 PART II (To be fundedmainly by GovernmentAgencies)

PublicBuildings 19.8 - - - - - 19.8 Water Supply - 3.7 - - 3.1 - 6.8 Power Installation - - - - 2.2 - 2.2 Railways - - 3.0 - 5.0 - 8.0 Water/PowerDiste - - 16.5 - - - 16.5 Telecomaunications - - 4.6 - - - 4.6 Local Govt Roads - 28.3 - - - - 28.3

Subtotalhi 19.8 3. 24.1 - 10.3 - 86.2 GRANDTOTAL 167.0 32.0 24.1 100.0 60.3 100.0 483.4 al The projectsin the existingWorld Bank/IDAportfolio from which these resourcescould be made availableinclude the projectslisted below. These are Indicativeamounts, not requiringany changes in existing legal agreements.

-- TransportSector Investment Ln. 3241-PAR, US$10.0million -- PrimaryEducation III, PunjabCr. 1821-PAR,US$ 8.0 million -- SindhPrimary EducationDev. Cr. 2102-PAR, US$12.0million -- IrrigationSystems Rehab II Cr. 1888-PAK,US$20.0 million b/ Excludes US$28.9 million for equipmenmthich was Included in the Government'sinitial estimate for damage costs, but which the IDA appraisalmission judged was not directly related to the restorationof infrastructure. - 11 -

Sch6dutoB

F992tLOOD DAMAGE RESTORATIg§ PROJECT

SwuarL of Pr22MsedPcurmn Arranmmnta nD Dibursements (MSSmitlon)

A. P-crM

PrAumCnt Menthod Force Total Project Element ICB LIt LCB Account Other Costs

Civil Works 12.80 253.00 120.00 - 385.80 (11.40) (0.00) (54.70) (25.70) (0.00) (91.80)

RemovableBridges - 5.00 - - 5.00 (0.00) (5.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (5.00)

Technical Assistance - - - 6.40 6.40 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (3.20) (3.20) TOTAL 12.80 5.00 253.00 120.00 6.40 397.20 (11.40) (5.00) (54.70) (25.70) (3.20) (100.00) NOTE: Figures in parentheses are the repective esmomts financed by the IDA credit. Becausethe civil works schemesare 8maltand wideLy scattered international competitive bidding Is not appropriate. tCt will be appticable only for major large brides, and LIB for the remowablebridges (Bailey-type or equivalent). Componentsfinanced by IDA would be in accordance with procedures satisfactory to the Association and those finanmed by other donors (as per financing plan in Schedule A page 2 of 2) woutd be in accordance with their procurement procedures. See Appendix 5 for a detailed discussion on smb-project procurement procedures.

ICBa international coapetitive bidding Llta tlmited international bidding LCB * local comWpetitivebidding B. Disburseeren&o

Credit Allocation X of Expenditures Catorv US$ItiOtin to be Ffinced Civil works 86.00 90n of expenditures not of taxes GOods 5.00 100Xof CIF value of rewvable bridges

Technical Assistance 3.20 1U0Xnet of taxes (SO1 IDA and 50S AD8) Unallocated 5.80 TOTAL 100.00

Estimated IDA DisbursemF ats IDAFiscal Yesr FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 .05$ m--*------*--Us$illon------Anmbl 30.0 35.0 25.0 10.0 Cmmtlative 30.0 65.0 90.0 100.0 Closing Date ; Decber 31, 1996 - 12 -

Schodul0 C

1992 FnOODDAMGZ RESTORTIONA PWOJICT

1tietable of Lea Prolect Procosina events

(a) Time taken to prepare the projects 3 moths, October 1992 - December 1992

(b) Prepared bys Local consultant and Govexrnmt with Associationassistance

(c) Appraisal mission departures October 11, 1992

(d) Negotiations: January11-15, 1992 (e) Planned date of effectiveness: June 1993 (f) List of relevant PCRs and PPAls:

Credith± lfroie *og Dat Cr. 466-PAZ A Flood RehabilitationProgram PPAR2238, 10/13178 (1973) Cr. 683-PAZ Pakistan Flood DamageRestoration PPAR 3273, 12/31/80 (1976) Cr. 2003-PAZ 1988 Flood Damage Restoration PCR in Draft Project This report is based on findings of an appraisal mission to Pakistan in October 1992. Project team members included Messrs. B. Aesimakopoulo8 (Pr. Engineer/ Planner, 5*331), Task Mager and Mission Leader; A. amid (Sr. Counsel, LGSA) I E. Eggerstedt (Economist, SASCI); M. 8ergo (Sr . FinancialAnalyst, ASTEG); M. J. Wambia (Financial Analyst/Economist, SA3AG); and Mrs. J. Palensuela (Operations Analyst, S331) from the International Development Association, Headquarters. Staff who participated from the Pakistan Resident Mission included Messrs. P. Aklilu (Head of Projects Unit); and N. Qureshi and U. Qsmar (Project Advisors). The followingconsultants also participated In the mission: Messrs. 0. Ersenkal, P. Jones (Urban Infrastruture Specialists), D. Kennedy (Highway Enginer) 9 A. 8. Kinawy (Architect), L. Moscoso, R. Percy (Irrigation Engineers), and T. Walton (Enironmental Speciast). Ur. U. Staab ( Project Advisor,, SA3DR) also joined the mission. Mr. Paul Isenman is the Department Director and has endorsed the project. Durfig project preparation stage,o an Ad Hoc Advisory Comittee, comprising staff throughout IDA, mot regularly to provide advi.e and assistane on issue. relating to policy, project design and implmentation. - 13 -

ScheduleD Page 1 of 3

THE STATUSOF BANKGROUP OPERATIONS IN PAKISTAN A. STATEMENTOF SANK LOANSAND IDA CREDITS (As of December31. 1992

Amount (USSmillion) Fiscal eesscaneliatlone) Loan No Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed

64 Loans and 70 credits have been fully disbursed 1888.89 1798.33

Cr. 1243-PAK 1982 Republicof Pakistan SalochistanAgfricultural Dev. 14.00 3.12 Cr. 1348-PAK 1983 RepublIcof Paidstan Lahore Urban Development 16.00 5.35 Cr. 1376-PAK 1083 Republicof Pakistan FourthDranae 33.74 O.9 Cr. 1487-PAK 1984 Republicof Pakistan CommandWater Management 40.50 6.67 Cr. 1499-PAK 1984 Republi of Pakistan SecondSmall Industries 60.00 4.03 Cr. 1532-PAK 1985 Republicof Pakdstan Left BankOutfal Drain - Sage 1 160.00 135M Ln. 2499-PAK 185 Republicof Pakistan FourthWAPDA Power 100.00 2.83 Cr. 1l02-PAK 1985 Republicof Paidstan SecondPrimary Education 52.50 23.68 Ln. 256a-PAK 1985 Republicof Pakistan Fifth WAPDAPower 100.00 8S. Ln. 264-PAK 1988 Republicof Paidstan Industrianvestment Credit 148.00 0.94 Cr. 1652-PAK 1988 Republicof Paildetan arachiSpecia Dewopment 70.00 26.10 Cr. 1670-PAK 18 Republicof Paistan SeoondVocational Training 40.20 27.60 Cr. 1693-PAK 18 Republicof Pakistan SCARPTransition Pilot 10.00 5.18 Cr. 1659-PAK 1986 Republicof Pakistan Agitk. Dev. Bank of PakistanVI 55.00 0.64 Ln. 289-PAK 1986 Republicof Pakistan WAPDAVI-ot Addu Combined Cycle 90.00 1.11 Ln. 2743-PAK 1987 Republicof Paidstan TelecommunicationsV 100.00 4.79 Cr. 1755-PAK 1987 Republi of Pakistan Third Tehn AIstance 7.00 4.91 Cr. 1762-PAK 1987 Repubtkcof Pakistan Agrk. Extension& AdaptiveII 42.10 22.27 Cr. 1821-PAK 1987 Republicof Pakistan Thid PrimaryEducation 145.00 99.02 Ln. 27m2-PAK 1987 Republicof Pakistan WAPDAVii-Pwr Plant Efficiency 70.00 23.97 Ln. 2814-PAK 1987 Republicof Pakistan Fourth Highways 152.00 688 Ln. 2839-PAiK 1987 Republicof Pakistan SmaliIndustries III 54.00 41.15 Ln. 2842-PAK 1987 Republicof tPaistan Refinery nergyConservation 21.00 17.00 Ln. 2884-PAK 1988 Republicof Pakistan CementIndustry Modemization 98.00 4.18 Cr. 1888-PAK 1988 Republicof Pakistan SecondIrrigation SystemsReheb 79.50 53.80 Cr; 1895-PAK 1988 Repubic of Pakistan Punjab Urban Development 90.00 56.82 Cr. 193S-PAK 1988 Republicof Pakitan Natol OllseedDevelopment 20.00 14.84 Ln. 2973-PAK 1S88 Republicof Paldstan NationalOsed Development 31.40 31.40 Ln. 2982-PAK 1988 Republicof Pakistan Private Secto nergy Developent 150.00 149.65 Cr. 1982-PAK 1989 Repubic of Pakiesan IndueWl InvestmentCredit III 2.00 0.24 Ln. 3019-PAK 1989 Republicof Paidstan InduesWlinvestment Credit III 148.00 86.50 Cr. 1987-PAK 1989 Repubic of Pakisen KarachiWater & Sanitaon -I 125.00 91.04 Ln. 3107-PAK 1980 Republicof Paisetan EnergySetor Loan IJ 260.00 23.40 Cr. 2004-PAK 1989 Republicof Palidetan PrivateTubewell Dev. 34.40 7.89 Ln. 3147-PAK 1S90 Republicof Pakitan Powr Trane. Ext & Reinforce. 162.00 127.57 Cr. 2078-PAK 1900 Republi of Paidean Ruraliectrfation 37.00 35.02 Ln. 3148-PAK 1900 Republi of Pakistan Rufal Electrification 123.00 123.00 Cr. 2102-PAK 1690 Republicof Pakidstan Slndh Primary Educadon 112.50 98.65 - 14 - ScheduleD Page2 of 3

THESTATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN PAKISTAN A. STATEMENTOF BANK LOANS AND IDA CREDITS (Asof December31. 1992)

Amount(USS million) Fiscal (assoaneellations) LoanNo Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbureed

Cr. 21S3-PAK 1990 Republicof Pakistan AgricultureCredit 1.60 1.45 Ln. 3226-PAK 1990 Republicof Pakistan AgricultureCredit 148.60 97.02 Cr. 2164-PAK 1990 Republicof Pakistan AgricultureResearch 11 57.30 88.6S Ln. 2884-1 ? 1990 Republicof Pakistan CementIndustry Modem. 86.40 60.21 Ln. 3107-1-P 1990 Republicof Pakistan EnergySector Loan II Suppl. 28.00 27.48 Ln. 3241-PAK 1990 Republicof Pakistan TransportSector Investment 184.00 148.86 Ln.3262-PAK 1991 Republicof Pakistan Corp.Restruct. & SystemsExpan. 130.00 102.81 Ln. 3262-1-P 1991 Republicof Pakistan Corp.Restructuring Suppl. 60.00 60.00 Cr. 2228-PAK 1891 Republicof Pakistan RuraWater Supply & Sanitation 136.70 131.60 Ln. 3318-PAK 1991 Republicof Pakistan Microenterprise 28.00 26,9 Cr. 2240-PAK 1991 Republicof Pakistan FamilyHealth 45.00 4196 Cr. 224S-PAK 1991 Republicof Pakistan ThirdOn-Farm Water Management 47.30 36.70 Ln.3327-PAK 1991 Republicof Pakistan ThirdOn-Farm Management 36.30 36.30 Cr. 2257-PAK 1991 Republicof Pakistan SecondSCARP Transtion 20.00 10.48 Ln. 3335-PAK 1991 Republicof Pakistan KarachiPort Modemization 91.40 86.15 Cr. 2354-PAK 1992 Republicof Pakistan MiddleSohooling 116.00 110.68 Cr. 2383-PAK 1992 Republicof Pakistan Env.Prot. & Res.Co. 29.20 29.42 Cr. 2410-PAK 1992 Republicof Pakistan East.Sadiqia So Phase 64.20 54.44 Ln.3500-PAK 1992 Republicof Pakistan DomesticEnergy Resources 180.00 180.00

Total 4624.69 3536.97Ia 2688.24 of whichhas been repaid 936.69 176.17

Totalnow outstanding 3689.00 3361.80

Amountsold 33.09 of whichhas been repaid 32.24

Totalundisbursed 2688.24

la IDACredits beginning with the 6thReplenishmerit are denominated In SORs,and are shown In USSequivalents at thetime of negotations.Disbursed amounts are computed at the exchangerate applicable at thedate of thisstatement.

* IndicatesSALISfCAL Loans and Credits Thisproject officially closed on December 31, 1992.However, In keepingwith current Sank practice, the projectaccounts will remainopen until April 30. 1993(4 monthsafter the closing date) to allowfor disbursements against withdrawal applications received c.o.b. April 30.1993 In respectof eligibleexpenditures incurred prior to the project'sclosing date. Theseprojects officially closed on June30. 1992.but theaccounts have been kept open pending receiptof moniesowed the Sank in connectionwith the operation of specialaccounts. - 15 - Schedule0 Page 3 of 3

THE STATUSOF BANK GROUPOPERATIONS IN PAKISTAN S. STATEMENTOF IFC INVESTMENTS (As of December31 1992)

Amount(SmilIlons) Date Borrower Purpose Loan Equity TOWa

1958 SteelCorp. of Pakistan Iron & Steel 0.63 0.63 1950 AdamJeeIndustries Ltd. Textiles 0.76 0.75 196l115 GharlbwalCement Ltd. Cement 4.76 0.42 5.18 196318175 PICIC DFC 3.00 3.00 87180192 1961801821 PackagesUmited PaperProducts 17.00 1.24 18.24 87889t 1965 CrescentJuts Textiles 1.83 0.11 1.94 1967 PakistanPaper Corp. Paper 4.83 2.02 6.85 1969/89 DawoodHercules Fertilizer 18.30 2.92 21.22 1979 Fauji Foundation PolypropyleneBags 1.78 1.78 1979 Attock Refinery Ud. Chemicals& Petrochemicals 7.50 0.86 8.36 1979 Milkpak Ltd. Food Processing 1.90 0.40 2.30 1970/82 PakistanOilfields Ud. Chemicals& Petrochemicals 7.00 1.18 8.18 1980 Premier Board Particle Board 2.70 2.70 1981 Habib Arkady Ltd. Food & Food Procesng 3.10 0.16 3.31 1982 AsbestosCement Ind. Ltd. Cement& Construction MaterIal 4.02 051 4.63 1983185 PakistanPetroleum Ud. Chemicals& Petrochemicals 25.30 1.56 20.86 i985 NOLC Leasing 6.49 0.37 5.86 1986/92 Mar Gas CompanyLtd. Chemicals& Petrochemicals 44.48 44.48 1987189 Anglo-Sulsse Chemicals& Petrochemicals 8.80 6.80 1968 FectoCement Cement& Construction Material 18.58 18.68 1988 Millat Tractors Tractors 4.90 4.90 1989 ShameTextiles Textiles& Fibers 2.76 2.70 1989 Surai Cotton Textiles& Fibers 2.76 2.78 1989 Hala Spinning Textile Spinning 32 0.66 3.92 1990 Pak. Suzuki Automotive 18.17 18.17 1990 Rupali Polyester Synthetic Textiles 22.36 2.00 24.38 1990 FII Capitai Markets 1.57 1.67 1990 Housing Finance Corp. Capital Markets 5.63 0.49 6.02 1a91 Engro ChemicalsPak. Ltd. Chemicals& Petochemicals 36.20 8.50 44.70 19S1 PILCO Capital Markets 5.00 5.00 1991 PrudentialDiscount Guaran Capital Markets 0.40 0.40 1991 ElM. The Fund Capital Markets 0.78 0.78 1991 EIL Capital Markets 0.24 0.24 1992 J.S. Stock Brokerage Capital Markets 0.89 0.8S 1992 Rupafll Umited Synthetic Texties 14.38 0.34 14.72 1992 Sarah Textiles Textiles 6.00 1.50 7.50 1992 Central SecuritiesDepositor Capital Markets 0.2 0.2

Total GrossCommitments 291.34 39.14 330.46

Less Cancellations.Termination Exchanges Adjustments,Prepayments and Sales Writeoffsand Sales 210.60 23.44 234.04

Total Commitmentsnow held by IFC 80.74 16.70 98.t4 uunu m _nauw

Total Undisbursed 35.87 4.30 40.17 lom OIV10M oyia ou z66y

J VZXIW& Io t 3l9101 oVw3-

- 9T - - 17 - RAKISTM

1992 FLOOD DAMAGE RESTORATIONPROJECT

Technical Anne

Table of Contents Paae No.

I. ACKGROUND...... 18 MonsoonSeason ...... *. , . , . . . , . . . . , 18 The 1992 Floods ...... , . . . .a 18 Operation o g Dam ...... a . . . . 18 Flood Damages . a o o ao 19

Economic Impact ...... *...... *. . 19 Impact on the Government'sStructural Adjustment Effort . 20

II. GOVERMENT RESPONSE FOR RECOVERY ...... 21

III. IDA RESPONSE AND ASSISTANCE STRATE ...... 22

IV. THE PROJECT ...... 22 HighwaySubsector...... 22 Irrigation,Drainage and Flood Protection Subsectors . . . 24 Primary Education and Basic Health Facilities ...... 27

V. INSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTS AND PROJECT T!2PLEHENTATI_N .a. 28 Coordinating Agency ...... a 28 lmplementing Agencies ...... * 29 National lighwayAuthority...... a...... 29 ProvincialDepartments of Commnications and Works . . . 29 Provincial Departments of Irrigation ...... 29 Provincial Departments of Education ...... 29 Implementation Period ...... 30 Consulting Services ...... 31 Financing Plan...... 31 Procurement ...... a....* ...... 9. o..*.. . 32 IDA Finmning of Civil Works ...... 32 Disbursements ...... *. .. . 32 Special Accounts .nts...... 33 Accounts and Audits ...... 33 Selection of Subprojects ...... **...... 33

APPENDICES

1 - History of Floods in Pakistan and IDA's Assistance 2 - Subproject Selection Criteria 3 - Subproject Restoration Standards and Implementation Arrangements 4 - Terms of Reference for Consulting Services 5 - SubprojectProcurement Procedures 6 - Flood Forecasting and Warning System 7 - Selected Documents and Data Available in the Project File - is -

PARISTM

1992 FLOODDAMAGE RESTORATION PROJECT

Technical Annex I. BACKGROUN

1.1 Monsoon Season. In Pakistan, the monsoon season stretches from end- June to mid-Septembervith the heaviest rains fallingduring the months of July and August. It is during these two months that the northernpart of the country, the catcementarea of all the major rivers in the country, receives one-thirdto one half of Its annual rainfall. Consequently,it Is during these months that the rain water throughmajor rivers is collectedin reservoirsof the dams to be used for irrigation and power generation during the year. In August 1992, exceptionallyheavy rains, and the resultingfloods, caused extensivedamage to crops and livestock in Sindh. This damage, however, was much less than the destruction caused by the super flood which originated in the north of the countryduring the secondweek of Septemberand devastateda substantialportion of the rural country side by ravaging thousandscf villages (and some cities), destroying standing crops on millions of acres and badly damaging transport, communication and irrigation infrastructure throughout the entire length of the country.

1.2 The 1992 Floods. On September 8, 1992, a low pressure area moving from Rajasthan in India in the south-eastand a strong east moving depression coming from the west met over Kashmir and dropped more than 52 cms (20 inches) of rain during a period of 36 hours in the catchment areas of the Jhelum and Chenab rivers. This extreme phenomenon, coupled with the past high degree of deforestation, resulted in flash floods in many areas of AJK and caused extensive damage to the state's already fragile communicationsystem. Within 48 hours, almost all the major bridges were destroyed and the road network was badly damaged by a large number of mud and rockslides. In addition, continuedheavy rains in the area caused a state of super flood in the Jhelum River (and a tributary 'f Jhelum--PoonchRiver) upstream from Mangla Dam. Similarly,heavy rains in the DWPP caused extensivedamage to the communicationnetwork in that province. Worst hit in that provincewere the districtsof Mansehra,Hazara and D.I. Khan.

1.3 ODerationof Manjla Dam. Mangla Dam is located in the Jhelum district of Punjab on the Jhelum River. It has a total storagecapacity of about 5.4 maf of water and an installed capacity of 800 megawatts of electricity. Although initial heavy inflows into the Mangla reservoir were easily accommodated, an unexpected second flood peak forced WAPDAto discharge an enormous amount of water into the downstream river system. This huge outflow greatly accentuated the already critical flood situation. These developmentsare explainedin more detail below.

1.4 By end-August, the Mangla Dam's reservoir was already up to the level generally believed to be sufficient for annual irrigation and power needs (elevation of 1,202 feet above the sea level). Apparently due to the weak telemetric and inadequate flood forecasting system (a problem compounded by the fact that more than half of the catchment area falls under Indian control), WAPDA had little advance knowledge about the amount of water that would be flowing into - 19 -

the Mangla reservoir on September9 and 10. encoe, &A continued to discharge water from the reservoir at a eteady rate of about 33 thoussad cusses, the minimum amount required to generate electricity from the Dem. This rate of outflow from the reservoir contliued even after the Inflow into the reservoir intreased four-fold in the pro-dawn hours of September 9. 1.5 It was only after9 a.m.,when the Inflowof water increasedto 315 thousandcusecs (ten times the normalflow) that WAPDA Increasedthe outflowto 184 thousandcussecs. But in the next few hours,the inflowof water increased to a super flood level and at 5 p.m. the first peak of about 1 million cusecs entered the reservoir. The Inflow, however,gredually decreased to 560 thousand cusecs by maid-night of September 9. Considering this heavy Inflow to be a temporary phenomenon, WAPDAauthorities tried to maage the downstreamflood by gradually increasing the outflow from 246 thousand cusses at 5 p.m. to 645 thousandcusecs at maid-nightof September9, consequentlyraising the water level in the reservoirto 1,208 feet above the sea level. However, the Inflow of water increasedagain and a secondpeak was reacebd(more then 1 millioncuseCs entered the reservoir)at 4 a.m. on September10. 1.6 In order to protectthe structurefrom the risk of a possiblethird peak,WAPDA decided to lowerthe levelof water in the reservoir(from 1208 feet) and it increased the discharge to an average of 884 thousand cusecs for the next 10 hours--thus releasing about 263 billion cubic feet of water, downstream into the Jhelum. The injection of this amount of water (with an additional amount of 200,000 to 300,000 cusees of rain water froa the flood and other drains) caused a surge in the water level of the Jhelum River and transmitted a major flood wave throughout the length of the riverain system. It was this wave that made the 1992 flood the worst flood in country's history aud caused enornu damage to life and property. 1.7 Flood DjmMj s. The surge In water level caused by tho outflows from Mangla was too big to be contained by the protective river embankments and to be managed by the irrigation barrages and headworks. Renee, the water spilled over from the embankments inundating large areas, including agricultural lands with standing crops. At some places, the rushing waters caused breaches in the protective embankmets, while at other places breaches were deliberately made by the civil and military authorities to minimize damage to the irrigation system and/or to protect major cities from floods, thus causin further inundation of large tracts of rural areas. 1.8 Economic Imuact. The damage to infrastructure has disrupted transportation and essential public services. Highways were flooded or blocked by landslides, and a number of bridges were destroyed or badly damaged. Railway transport, telecomdunlcation and power supply were disrupted temporarily. While the damage to telecommunication facilities, power Installations and the railways was less severe, highways and bridges require a substantial reconstruction effort. 1.9 Substantial damage also occurred to the Irrigation canals in Punjab. About 900 miles of irrigation canals and vater channls were badly dmaged. Rushing vaters caused breaches in the protective embankments, flood cont-ol and river training structures. At other places, breaches were made by the civil and military authoritiesto dininizedamage to the Irrigationbarrages, headworks and their ancillary structures, highways and bridges and to protect major cities from - 20 - floods. Although no sajor headworks we-re damaged, embankements must be restored and tubewell etations that suffered from Inundation, must be made operational again.

1.10 The sector hardest hit by the flood vas agriculture. At least 1.9 millionbales of cottontfour milliontons of sugarcaneand 0.5 milliontons of ricewere lostdue to inundation.Wheat-Pakistan's fourth most Important crop-- was not affected as it is soon only in late autumn. In fact, it is expected that the wheat crop will be bigger than in the previous fiscal year and thus compensate to so=e extent for the overall loss in agricultural production. However, substantialstocks from last year's outputhave been damaged. Estimates of major crop damage Indicatea declinein output between-4 and -7Z, and agriculturalgrowth in other crops and livestockwill be significantlylower than expected. This translatesinto a negativegrowth contribution to GDP for the agriculturalsector as a whole.

1.11 The Impact on the manufacturingsector is more difficultto estimate. Some subsectors hae been affected directly by the floods, such as cotton ginning,cement, etc. Otherssuffer indirectly from the scarcityof agricultural Inputsand disruptionsof communication.Whereas manufacturing output will experience a loer rate of growth,the constructionindustry is oepectedto benefit. Withinthe Industrialsector, the increasein constructionactivities will probablycompensate for productionlosses in manufacturing.Losses in the services sectors, especialy retail, are not pervasive and recovery will be relatively fast, so that the shortfall in growth in this sector is likely to be small. 1.12 According to estimates by Governmentofficials and the fIP mission, the overallproduction impact of the floodsrequires a downwardadjustment of projectedGDP growth (at factor cost) by about 1-1/2 percentagepoints. Furthermore,as a result of higher subsidiesand lower iudirecttax revenue, GDP growth In market priceswould show an ev-n larger declinein comparisonwith pre- flood projections. 1.13 The Government'sability to containadverse effects of the disruption of publicInfrastructure and serviceson privatesector growth depends on its fiscalmaneuverability. Speedy reconstruction of higbways, roads, irrigationand drainagesystem and other facilitiesis estimatedby Governmentto cost about Rs 9 billionIn this fiscalyear. The Governmentexpressed its intentionto mobilizepart of the necessaryresources through revenue measures and some reallocation withinthe Public SectorDevelopment Program. 1.14 Iuact on the Gvermaent's Structural Adjustment Effort. Prior to the floods,considerable progress had been made in the implementation of economic reforms. The Governmeat's policy of liberalization and privatization met with a favorable response of the private sector. Output and exports grew strongly in 1T91/92, higher direct foreign investment and larger private domestic investment led to a furtherupgraditg to the economy'scapital stock. In 1Y92193the reform process was continued with a deepeningof the privatizationprogram, some further liberalization of the traderegime, and financial sector reforms. The Government also took steps to redress the pst neglect of the social sectors through the implementation of the Social Action Program, and to address environmental issues through the National Conserv&tion Strategy. - 21 - 1.15 While the formulationof a policypackage for continuedstructural adjustmentwas still being finalizedvith the IMP and World Bank, the flood struck the country. The Government reacted by giving priority to addressing the Immediate relief needs and tempora-ily postponing the adjustment efforts. The Government expects to incur higher than planned expenditures due to the floods. Current expenditure is expectedto be higher by Re 4 billion, mainly due to reliefoperations, and development expenditure would increaseby Re 9 billion, due to the need of repairingthe damageto the infrastructure.At the sametime, a revenueshortfall of Rs 10.2 billionis expected. Thus the budgetdeficit is expected to increase by Rs 23 billion, or 1.71 of GDP, comparedto the previous for FY92193.

1.16 The bankingsector will also be affectedby the incre.entalfinancing requirementsfor commodityoperations, extension of credit for recoveryof agriculturalactivities, and losses of collateral against outstanding bank credits. Together with higherpublic sector borrowing, these developmentsare expected to lead to a higherthan targetedinflation rate (11.5 insteadof 82). The major directbalance of paymentsimpact results from the loss of export receipts(estimated at someUS$465 million) and higherimports of foodstuffsand seeds,fertilizers and reconstructionequipment (US$245 million). Flood related incomelosses may lead to some reductionin privatesector imports, mitigating the directbalance of paymentsimpact to some extent. However,the current accountdeterioration will causeadditional pressures on an alreadyweak external financialsituation.

1I. GOVERNMENTRESPONSE FOR RECOVERY

2.1 Prime Minister's Relief Package. In order to alleviate some of the hardshipscaused by the floods,the Prime Minister (PM) announceda relief package. It includesa compensationof Rs 50,000to the fsmilieswho lost an incomeearning member (Rs 30,000in case the deceasedis not an earningmember). The total cost of this compensation is estimated at Re 50 million. A compensation of Re 5,000 is also announcedfor everyhouse destroyedin floods (total cost of Rs 230 million). Also, the entire flood affected area is declared a calamity area, implying that residents of the area are exempted from payment of income tax, wealth taxes, land revenues and user charges on irrigation water. Similarly, the recovery of principal and interest on agricultural loans was suspended for one year. For an early rehabilitation of small farmers (having land of 12.5 acres or less), the PM'a packageincludes interest free loansfrom the ADBP for purchaseof seeds (one40kg bag per acre) and fertilizer (two 40kg bags per acre). The cost of the packageis to be met from the Zakat Fund and the 1X surchargelevied on importsby the Ministryof Finance. 2.2 Apart from these immediaterelief measures,no compensationfor productionlosses are to be givento the privatesector. The Governmentintends to keep expenditureson the abovementioned relief package at a limit of Rs. 4 billion. The damage to the public sector,however, requiressubstantial expendituresfor reconstructionand rehabilitation.Currently the Government estimatesthe cost of reconstructionto be aboutRs. 12.8billion. Although not all of the Governmentexpenditure on reconstructionwill happen in FY93, the additionalfiscal burden will stillbe considerable.In order to reducet-, dangerof macroeconomic destabilization, the Government is consideringadditional measuresto increaserevenues, reduce current expenditures and rephase - 22 - developmentexpenditures. Both the Bank and the If are discussingwith the Governmentways to containthe adverseeffects of the floodson macroeconomic balances. III. IDA RESPONSEAND ASSISTANCESTRATEgY

3.1 As soon as the magnitude of the flood damage became apparent, GOP indicatedto the Bank'sfield officein Islamabadits intentionto seek IDA's assistancefor emergencyreconstruction. In order to enableIDA to respond quickly,once a formalrequest was received,the fieldoffice staff, on September 10, 1992,immediately began gathering information from the federaland provincial governmentsand startedliasing with potentialdonors. On September24, 1992, the Governmentof Pakistan formally requestedIDA to provide emergency assistance.A Bank-wideAd Hoc AdvisoryGroup was immediatelyestablished to mobilizeexpertise in emergencyoperations, as well as to assistand adviseon policyissues, project design and implementationand liaisingwith other donor agencies. As a first step to mobilizingresources, an analysisof ongoing projectsunder implementation was undertaken.Four projects were identifiedas candidatesfor utilizationof funds,with a total of about US$50.0million consideredavailable for immediatedisbursement by implementingagencies for use in restoringflood damaged components. The scopeof each ongoingproject covers activitiesthat are broad enough to include flood rehabilitationwork. Therefore,while thesefunds could be tappedfor this purpose,no changein the legalagreements would be required.These projects and the likelyamounts that couldbe made availablefor the floodrehabilitation work are as follows:

-- TransportSector Investment Ln. 3241-PAR, US$10.0million -- PrimaryEducation III, PunjabCr. 1821-PAR,US$ 8.0 million -- Sindh PrimaryEducation Dev. Cr. 2102-PAK, US$12.0million -- IrrigationSystems Rehab II Cr. 1888-PAR,US$20.0 million 3.2 The second step was to organizea multi-sectormission to visit Pakistanwith the purposeof preparingand, if appropriate,appraising a project for IDA financing. ADB was also requestedby the Governmentof Pakistanto provideemergency funding, and the two institutionscoordinated their efforts duringa missionin October1992, and jointlyappraised the proposedproject. IV. THE PROJECT 4.1 The proposed project comprisesa three-yeartime slice of the Government'sprogram to restoreflood damaged public infrastructure affected by the 1992 flood. The mission'sfindings and the componentsidentified for financingby IDA and ADB are discussedbelow. RiahwaySubsector 4.2 Of the approximately120,000 km of roads in Pakistan,6,587 km are designatedas nationalroads by the NationalHighway Authority Act 1991under the jurisdictionof the FederalGovernment and 40,280km are classifiedas provincial roads under the jurisdiction of the provincial governments. The remainder are district, municipal and farm-to-market roads. All the national roads are paved with either asphaltic concrete or bituminous surface treatment. About 502 of the provincial roads are estimated to be paved. In function, the provincial roads range from heavily trafficked intra-provincial links between major centers to - 23 - farm-to-market type roads, with varying surfaces of low standard bitucinous type through gravel or shingle to earth. 4.3 Damane Assessment. The runoff from the unusually heavy rains during July and August 1992 caused serious damage to the national and provincial road networks in Sindh and Balochistant roads in southern Punjab and MWRP were also damaged to a lesser extent. The surface water runoff from the rains exceeded the capacity of the drainage structures at many locations, flooded over the road. and washed away embankments and pavements adjacent to structures and In low-lying areas. Bridge structures and culverts were damaged and river entrainment works washedaway. 4.4 Furtherdamage to the road networkwas caused by the runoff from continuousheavy rains during September in the northern catcbment areas of the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers, resulting in further disruptionto the road tran Sort systemin the upperPunjab and NWiP areas. The two riversand theirtributaries swelledto recordheights, not recordedsince 1929,and carriedtrees, boulders and otherdebris downstream. Fivemajor bridges crossing the JhelumRiver and one crossingthe KunharRiver were swept from theirbearings and carriedeways the approachroads to severalof thesebridges were also destroyedas were many buildingsadjacent to the roads. Smallbridges and culvertswere washed away or chokedwith debris.Massive slips occurred in the roadcuttings and embankments, and low-lying roads were overtopped and pavements washed out.

4.5 The resulting damage to the road network from the two rains was extensiveand affectedall provinces.The damageto the nationalroads has been recordedby the provincialMRA officesand thoserecords have beenplaced in the projectfile. The damagewas confirmedby selectivesite visits by IDA staff and a more detailedinspection by consultants.In addition to the hardships imposed on the inhabitantsof the areas cut off, the resulting disruption to the nation's road transportationsystem caused substantial economic losses.

4.6 The Government's response was commendably prompt in mobilizingall resourcesto carryout tii following emergency work In order to ensure the supply of food and medicalsupplies to isolatedareas: (a) clearingof debrisl

(b) constructionof road diversions around damaged bridges and culvert.; (c) provisionof cablecars acrossrivers where road diversionswere not possiblet

(d) constructionof cable ferrieswith ramps and approach roads at major river crossings;and

(e) construction of pontoon or other temporary bridges and approach roas at major river crossings.

4.7 The project would assist the NRA and the Prowvices In the design, repair, rehabilitation,reconstruction, and supervisionof the rain and flood damagedroad infrastructure in orderto restorethe roadnetwork to its original, or more floodproof, condition. The subprojectsto be selectedfor Inclusionin the projectwill be subjectto criteriaas outlinedIn Appendix2. - 24 -

4.8 The proposed project will comprise the following component,, and estimated costsare as shown In Table 1 belows (a) reconstruction of damagedroads includin road embankments,pavement., culverts, small bridges and related ancillary works; (b) repairing breaches and damaged roads, providing additional flood protectionworks and slope stabilization (including drainage vents, and culverts needed for passing largerflows in reconetructodroad sections); (c) construction of the seven major bridges. and (d) procurement of removable steel bridges.

Table--L- NATIONALIPROVINCIALROADS AND BRIDS Estilted Cost of Flood Damage by Province (US$ million)

Provinces Foreign Local Total

M& Road. and Brid_.. Punjab 18.6 27.8 46.4 Sindh 3.2 4.8 8.0 UWYP 5.1 7.7 12.8 Balochistan 4.0 6.0 10.0 AJK 21.0 31.4 52.4 Major Bridges 6.4 6.4 12.8 RemovableBridge. 5.0 0.0 5.0 Sub-Total 63.2 84.2 147.4 ProvincialRoads and Bridees Punjab 13.5 25.0 38.4 Sindh 6.2 11.5 17.6 NMFW 11.2 20.9 32.1 AJK 5.3 9.9 15.2

Sub-Total Ila 67.2 103.3 TOTAL 9. 15. 25a

Irriaation.-DrSinn and Flood Protection Subsectors

4.9 In July and August, heavy rains inundated v"t areas both in urban and rural Sindh. About 25,000 villages were flooded in the Provaie. According to initial estimates, standing crops over 1609000 ha were wbolly or partially damagedand 39,000heads of cattle were lost. Rainfall rn-off also resulted in extensive damage to irrigation, drainage and flood protection facilities. - 25 - 4.10 The most devastatingfloods were causedby unprecedentedand wide- spread rains on September 8 and 9 in the catebments of Jhelum,Chenab sad Indus Rivers, the federally administered northern areas, AJK, UWYPand moat of Punjab. Exceptionally high flows were recorded in the Chenal and Jhelum Rivers. In the , peak discharges of 845,000 to 950,000 cusecs were recorded at the Marala, Ehanki, end Qadirabad barrages. Large areas were inundated along the river in the districts of Sialkot, Gujrat, Gujranwala and , causing damage to crops,villages, roads and irrigationand drainagefacilities and otherpublic Infrastructure. 4.11 The tributariesof Jhelum River upstreamof the Mangla Dam also recordedexceptionally high flowsand severalbridges were vashedaway in AJK. In the JhelumRiver, two successivepeaks of over 950,000cuseces were recorded at the Mangla Dam on September9 and 10, within a span of a few hours, surpassing all past records. The Mangla reservoir was already full to its conservation level (elevation 1,202 above mean sea level). Because thx major part (551) of the rivercatchment is locatedin India and it takes only a few hours for flood watersfrom the rim stations(the most upstream gaugingstations) to reach the reservoir, the flood peaks could be reduced only partially through reservoir management. 4.12 Several small villages downstream fr'm Mangla located in the flood path were virtually destroyed with significant lose of life. The Raoul barrage located down stream of Mangla received a peak flow of over 950,000 cusecs against its designed capacity of 850,000. The left marginal bund upstream of the barrage was breached by overtopping. The flood waters caused breaches in the Rasul- Qadirabad link canal and also damaged the lower Jhelum canals which was breached In 39 locations. The flood also caused 281 breaches and cuts in the Shahpur Branch canal system. The Muhajir branch of the Thal canal and its distributors also suffered damages. Downstream of Raoul barrage, the Jhelum flood waters inundated large areas in the districtsof Sargodhaand Rhushab. 4.13 Fortunately, the flood peaks of Chenab and Jhelum Rivers synchronized onlypartially at the Trimmubarrage, located at theirconfluence. Even so, the floodflows exceeded the designedcapacity of the barrage. To save the barrage structuresfrom seriousdamage, sections of floodembankments were breachedin order to release pressure on barrage structures and towns downstream, by providing an alternative flow path the flood waters. However, extensive damage was caused to the Rangpur canalsystem, including its 16 distributors,in which openings occurred along a length of 140 miles. Downstream of Trimmu barrage, the Chenab Is joined by the Ravi River, which was also floodedat that time. The combinedfury of both riversthreatened the city of Multanand the important Shershahrailway bridge. When the floodwater rose to a criticallevel, the left embankmentof the bridgehad to be breached. Mnotherrailway embankment (the Bund) was overtopped and areas adjoining the town of Muzafargarh were Inundated. The Muzafargarh canal and its distributors were damaged over a length of 65 miles. 4.14 Further downstream, the flood waters recorded a peak flow of over 810,000 cusecs at the Panjmad barrage exceeding its designed capacity of 700,000 cusecs. The breaching section on the right bank of the barrage was operated when the water rose to a critical level. The area between the barrage and the town - 26 - of Alipur was inundated, but the town itself was saved from major damage by the embankmentof Chanderwandistributor. 4.15 While the Jhelumand ChenabRlivers were in spate,very high floods were also experienced in the Indus River at Kalabagh, Chashma, and Taunsa. River training and flood protection facilities were damaged in D. I. Rhan In NW?Pand some areas downstream of were inundated along the river. 4.16 In Sindh, the combined flood waters of the Indus and its tributaries causedexceptionally high floodsat the Guddu(over 1 millioncusecs), Sukkur, and Kotri barrages. Wkiilethese floodsgenerally passed safely through these structures,damages were causedto river trainingand protectionworks. The riverainareas betweenthe flood embankmentswere inundated,and the local populationhad to be evacuated.

4.17 In additionto the damagescaused by the river flooding,torrential rains in various districts of NW?P, AJR and the northern areas caused numerous landslides and flash floods, resulting in extensive damage to farms, livestock, villages, private irrigation channels, flooding of tubewells and other private and public infrastructure. 4.18 Works requiredto restorethe damagewould involvethe followings (a) Irrilation 8vstem. Repair of breaches and canal banks; removal of silt deposited by flood water; repair/reconstruction of control structures, bridges, outlets and irrigation buildings, such as gauge huts, accomuodationsand offices.

(b) Drainnee System. Desilting of drainage channels, repair/ reconstruction of inlet structures, repair of breaches and other ancillary works. (c) FloodProtection Works. Repairof breachesand restorationof eroded embankments;repair of hydraulicstructures; and restorationof river controlspurs.

(d) Dams and Weirs. These structureswhich are located in damaged irrigationschemes will requirerestoration of embankments,aprons, spillwaysand outletcontrol structures, and stonepitching. (e) arrastes. Repair of control gate and operating mechanisms; reinstatement of stonework protection on guide bunds and in downstream aprons; and restoration of earthworks on guide and marginal bunds.

4.19 Table 2 below shows the estimated cost of the flood dmage by province. - 27 -

ZdL2 - I=CIATION hUD DIEI/FLOOD PROTECTION0 Eostiated Coat of Flood Damage by Province (US$ million)

z1gibmo Foreign Local Total

Punjab 10.4 41.6 52.0 Sindh 4.2 17.0 21.2 rWw 1.6 6.6 8.2 AJK 0.0 0.2 0.2

TOTAL 353Ha

rIMa Education ad Basic Health Facilities 4.20 The flood damage in the education and health sectora can be categorizedaa followes (a)schools (primary,middle and high)and basichealth facilities beyond repair which require total rebuilding;and (b) dmaged schools and health facilities which can be repaired. In the flood affected provinces ( Sindh, WP1) ani AJR, the numberof dmaged schools in four provl:nce. Is estimated at about 3,320 of which about 2,321 are primry education facilities The basichealth centers did not suffer majordmages as the schools and the majority of damges are repairable. 4.21 Most of the dmage to the schools and health facilitieswere attributed to the severityof the flood, to the lengthof tim it lasted, and to plaes affectedby major landslides. Buildingson those places should be relocated to avoid future disaster. The nature of damages in school buildings are mainly in boundary walls, flooring, roofing, swerage, toilets, gates and demolition of class roams totally or partially.

4.22 The primry schools reconstruction/reair costs are estimated at US$54.8 million equivalent and that of the basic health facilities US$3.7 mllion. Table 3 below provides estimated costs of the repair and rehabilitation activities which will comprises (a) Repair of buildings,and ancillary structures and/orconstruction; (b) Rehabilitationand/or construction of sanitaryfacilities; and (c) Repairand/or replacementof basic furniture and fixtures needed to reader facilities fully operational. - 28 -

Table 3 - PRIMARYSCHOOLS AEID BASIC -HEALTH UACILITIES Estimated Coat of Flood Damageby Province US$million

Provinces Foreign Local Total

Prurv Schools Punjab 1.8 34.5 36.4 Sindh 0.6 11.4 12.0 WIWP 0.3 4.9 5.1 AJK 0.1 1.2 1.3 Sub-Total 2.7 52.0 54.8

Iuice HealthlFacilities Punjab 0.1 1.4 1.4 Sindh 0.0 0.4 0.4 UNIV 0.1 1.4 1.5 AUK 0.0 0.4 0.4 Sub-Total 0.2 3.6 3.7 TOTAL 2.9 556 8.5

V. INSTITUTIONALARRNGEEN AND PROJECT IEIITTiI CoordinatingAaenev 5.1 The FederalFlood Commission(FFC) of the Government'sMinistry of Water and Power will be the CoordinatingAgency for the project. FPC was established in 1977when the Federal Government assumed responsibility for the fundingof floodprotection worksafter the 1973and 1976floods. FFC was given the mandate to provide overall planning and coordination of the country's flood protectionworks and to provide overall planningand coordinationof the country'sflood protection development. Day-to-dayactivities of the FCC are the responsibilityof the FederalFlood Cell attachedto FFC.

5.2 FEC was the CoordinatingAgency of the IDA's and ADB's 1988 Flood DamageRestoration Projects. At present,FFC is the executingagency of the ongoingADB financedFlood ProtectionSector Project. PFC's role in the implemantationof theseprojects relates to overallcoordination, the appointment of consultantsand the administrationof the federalbudget. The planning, design and executionof the physical works is carriedout by the provincial implemeting agencies with the assistance of consultants. Based on the experience gained on previous projects, the FPC is consideredcapable of carrying out the required project coordinationand administration tasks for the proposed project. - 29 -

5.3 PFC would be responsiblefor (a) overall coordinationof the project and liaisonwith the financingagencies, (b) procurementof consultantservices9 (c) preparationof budget requestsand follow-upof fund releases,(d) monitoring of project implementation,(e) maintenanceof the project accounts relating to expenditureby FEC and consolidationof financialrecords of the implementing agencies, (f) submission to the Bank of withdrawal applications, and (g) preparationof progress reports and a project completionreport. Consultants vill assist FFC in these tasks.

ImDlementingAgencies

5.4 Each implementing agency will be responsible, in respect of the activitiesto be carriedout by it, for: (a) selectionof subprojects;(b) design of civil works; (c) preparationof tender documentsand engagementof civil works contractors;(d) land acquisition;(e) supervisionof civil works contracts;(f) maintenance of accounts; and (g) submission of requests for payment to the ProvincialFlood Damage RestorationCells (PPDRC). The PFDRC will be headed by a Provincial Project Coordinatorassisted by suitableprofessional and support staff to coordinateoverall project implementationat the provinciallevel. The PFDRC will, inter aliat (a) operate the relevant Special Account and submit withdrawal applicationsto IDA with a copy to FFC; (b) monitor the auditing of the project accounts;and (c) consolidateand furnish to FFC, within 30 days of each reportingperiod; quarterlyand annual progress reports received from the implementing agencies. The following agencies will be responsible for implementationof their respectiveparts of the project.

5.5 National Hiahwav Authority-NRA). The NH will be responsible for restoration of national highways under its jurisdictionand certain selected works under the jurisdictionof the provincialauthorities. NMA has been set up as an autonomousorganization, under the NationalHighway AuthorityAct of 19919 and is responsiblefor the planning,design, construction and maintenanceof the nationalhighway system,which extends to about 6,000 km of the 120,000-kmroad network of the country. Under the project, NIA will be responsible for the restorationof national highways and, in particular,for the reconstructionof a number of major bridges on these highwayswhich were destroyedby the floods. While NRA's involvementwith ADB has been limitedto the role of coordinatorfor the preparationof the Provincial Highways Project, it has worked extensively with IDA and is familiarwith the procedures,guidelines and operationof special accountswhich apply to externally-financedprojects of this nature. MBA has the administrativeand technical capacity to provide the support necessary for its componentsunder the proposed project.

5.6 Provincial Departmentsof Communicationsand Works. The Provincial Departments of Communications and Works (CWDs) would be responsible for restoration of provincial and district (farm-to-market)roads under their jurisdictionand of basic health facilities in their respectiveprovinces and, in NWEP, for restoration of primary education facilities. The CWD in each provincewould be responsiblefor roads declared to be provincial roads and, in EWFP, for construction and maintenance of education facilities and other buildings. Provincial roads total around 40,000 km and range from heavily traffickedintra-provincial highways to singlelane farm-to-marketaccesses. The CWDs construct and carry out heavy maintenanceon their networks through local - 30 -

contractorswhich are engagedand supervisedthrough district-based organizations headed by an executiveengineer. Routinemaintenance and immediaterestoration after natural disasters is generally implementedthrough force account, again under the control of the executiveengineer. The CWDs have extensiveexperience with the procurement and special account procedures through the ADB Farm-To- Market Roads project, and will be able to deal with the additional workload arisingfrom the proposedproject without major difficulty,in particular since, as is the case with the ongoingprojecto, they will be assisted by consultants.

5.7 ProvincialDepartments of Irrigation. The ProvincialDepartments of Irrigation (PIDs)would be responsiblefor restorationof irrigation,drainage and flood control facilities in their respective provinces. The PIDs are establishedinstitutions that are responsiblefor the operationand maintenance of the irrigationand drainage systems and the maintenance of flood control works.

5.8 Under IDA's and ADB's Flood Damage RestorationProjects of 1988, the PIDs implementedworks for irrigation,drainage and flood controlinfrastructure. The PIDs are also the implementingagencies for the ongoingADB-financed Flood Protection Sector Project. Considering the successful implementationof the previous restoration projects, the PIDs are considered to have the required implementationcapacity to also carry out the restoration works under the proposed project.

5.9 ProvincialDepartments of Education. The ProvincialDepartments of Education ould be responsiblefor selectionof flood-damagedprimary education facilities to be rebuilt under the proposed project. In NWFP and AJK, construction of schools would be carried out under the supervision of the Communication and Works Departments. In Punjab and Sindh provinces,construction and rehabilitation of primary education facilities is currently the responsibilityof the civil engineeringunits of the education departments. However, under the previous and on-going IDA-financededucation projects, these units have not been able to implment the full programswhich they were assigned. The units have now been strengthened, and will take responsibility for implementingthe reconstructionof flood-damagedschools financed under the proposed project and from the on-going credits. However, in areas where units have inadequateimplementation capacity, reconstruction of schoolsto be financed under the proposed project would be undertaken by other agencies, based on instructionsof the provincial education departments. Provincial governments will propose suitable arrangementsfor implementationof the school restoration component of the project.

ImplementationPeriod

5.10 Project implementation has been under way since September 1992 starting with the restoration of vital services and preliminary steps to implement permanent restorationworks. It is anticipated that it would take three construction seasons to complete all project related works. Each constructionseason excludes the months of July, August and September, which correspond to the rainy season in Pakistan. The projectwill be physically completed by June 30, 1996. - 31 - ConsultinR Services 5.11 A firm of consultants will be eusaged under the project to assist the PFC and the Implementing Agencies in the general areas shown below. An outline of terms of reference for the consulting services are given in Appendix 4.

(a) overall project coordination and supervision;

(b) certificationof eligibleprojects/subprojects and their costs;

(c) engineering assistance and Intermittent supervision of the worksg

(d) certification of progress payments oan a random basis and all final payments; (e) preparationand conductof a project review not later than one year after the date of crediteffectiveness; and (f) preparationof monthlyand quarterlyprogress revorts and a project completion report.

FinancinaPlan

5.12 The project cost of Part I is estimated at US$397.2 million equivalent, with a foreign exchange component of about US$119.8 million equivalent (301) and taxes and duties estimated at about US$40.0 million equivalent. The IDA credit of US$100.0million equlvalentand ADB's contribution of a sgimilar amount would finance about 50S of the cost of Part I. In addition, a utilization of funds from existing World Bank/IDA-financed ongoing projects would finance up to 131 of the cost. The balance would be provided by the Government and other potential donors. Because of the emrgency nature of the work and the critical need for IDA assistance, retroactivefinancitg would be provided on an exceptional basis for expenditures Incurred on authorized project activitiessince Sentember10. 1992. 5.13 The proposed credit would be on standard TDA terms with 35 years maturity. The proceeds of the IDA credit will be retained partly by the Federal Government for use by the Federal Flood Comission, with the rest being made available to NHR and IWFP, Punjab,Sindh, Dalochistan (the provinces)and AJK through budgetary allocations on a first-come, first-serve basis. 5.14 The Government agreed that it would make available on a timely basis all necessarybudgetary allocations to ensurethat matching funds are available. The proposedIDA creditwould finances(a) civil works under Part I of the project;(b) procurement of removable steel bridges (Bailey-type or equivalent); and (c) consultancyservices during project implementation. IDA and ADB vould joint'?finance the costsof consultantservices and individuallyfiance each of the subprojects. - 32 - Procurement 5.15 Procurementwill be carriedout accordingto WorldBank Guidelines for Procurement dated May 1992. It is envisagedthat, exceptas statedbelow, procurement will be confined to civil works which will mainly be undertakeu by contractors whose services will be procured under local competitive bidding proceduresacceptable to IDA and detailedin Appendix5. Inter alia, these proceduresrequire that for all contracts,the periodfor bid preparationwill be a minimumof 30 days. Constructionof majorbridges identified by MNAunder the project will be carried out under contractsawarded using international competitive bidding procedures according to World Bank Guidelines. Limited international bidding procedures will be adopted for the proposed procurement of removable bridges (Bailey-type or euivalent) by DNA. Force account would be used only for restorationof some schoolsend basic healthfacilities and for selectedflood controland irrigationworks. For otherworks, force account would be eligibleonly duringthe periodapplicable to retroactivefinancing. 5.16 Certainemergency works which have alreadybeen carriedout under force account, direct contractitg, local shopping, or through variation orders on existing contracts will be reviewed by IDA on a case-by-case basis for eligibilityunder retroactive financing. All civilworks contractswith a value of Rs 25 million or more, all contracts for construction of major bridges, and all contracts for procurement of Bailey-type bridges, will be subject to prior IDA review and approval. Advance procurement action has been agreed between the Government and the management of IDAJADBIn respect of priority subprojects on condition that all advance action is carried out In accordance with procurement proceduresdetailed in AppendixS.

IDA Financina of Civil Works 5.17 Prior to the coommeemeutof civil workes pre-constructionsurveys shouldbe prepared in adequatedetail to allowverification of work quantities by the consultants, and would be made available for random checking by IDA supervision missions. Only civil works for which adequate pre-construetion surveys are available will be eligible for IDA financing. Disbursements 5.18 The proceedsof the IDA creditwould be disbursedagainst eligible expenditures as follows: (a) Civil works - 9O0 of expenditures net of taxes; (b) Goods - 1002 of CII valueof ramovable bridgesg and (c) Technical Assistance - 1008 not of taxes (502 by IDA and 502 by ADB). - 33 - SpecialAccounts 5.19 A SpecialAccount would be establishedin the National Bank of Pakistanby FPC and NUA and by each participatingprovince, aud AJK. All the SpecialAccounts taken togetherwould have an initialaggregate deposit in US dollarsof approximatelyUS$10.5 million equivalent, and on termsand conditions satisfactoryto IDA. All disbursementsagainst contractsfor less than US$400,000million for works would be made on the basis of Statementsof Expenditures(SOEs) certified by the supervisoryconsultants. The documentation for SOEs would not be sent to IDA, but would be retainedby the implementing agenciesand made availablefor auditby the projectauditors, and inspectionby IDA supervisionmissions. Disbursements for expendituresexceeding that amount would be againstfull documentation.Disbursements for force accountwould be made on the basis of measuredoutput, at rates reviewedby the supervisory consultantsand subjectto approvalby IDA. 5.20 Assumingthat the creditwould become effectiveby June 1993, the estimatedcompletion of the projectwould be June 30, 1996,with a proposed closingdate of December31, 1996. Accountsand Audit

5.21 Annual andits of expenditures by each participating province, AJK, NB and PFCwould be performed by the Auditor General of Pakistan. The audit reports covering Special Accounts and SOEswould be submitted to IDA not later than six months after the close of each fiscal year. Selectionof SubDroiects 5.22 Each projectimplementing agency will submitsubprojects to FPC for a decision,in consultationwith IDA and ADB, on the sourceof financing.In determiningthe sourceof financing,FCC wiil take into accountthe need for a balancedcommitment of the IDA creditand ADB loan. The selectionof the subprojectswill be done accordingto the agreedcriteria (Appendix 2) and an indication will be given as to how each subproject conforms to the criteria. The scope of subprojects for restoration of primary schools and basic health facilities will be limited to replacement of facilities that have been damaged beyond repair. Subprojects proposed for Bank financing whose total cost exceeds US$1.0 million equivalent will be submitted to IDA for prior review. This requirementwill enableIDA to cover,among others,all subprojectswhich will involvemajor restorationworks to the facilitiesor which are otherwiseof technicallycomplex nature. The listsof subprojectsmay be revisedand updated from time to time, but no new subprojects,the implementationof which would extendbeyond the date of physicalcompletion of the project,will be submitted to IDA. - 34 -

Ai,uendix1 Pasge1 of 5

=AtSTANl 1992 FLOODDANAGE RESTORATION CROJECT

Historyof Floodsin Pakistanand IDA'sAssistance

A. The Problem 1. Pakistan comprises two main topographic regions. By far the most important is the Indus river basin which coversmost of the Punjaband Sindand amallareas of the other two Provinces,Balochistan and NorthWest FrontierProvince. The other region is the dry, sparsely populated inland basin of Balochistan. About two-thirdsof the In'.sbasin is vithin Pakistanbut the headwaters of its main left bank tributaries,the Jhelum,Chenab, Ravi and Sutlejrivers lie to the north in India. About half the annual dischargesof the Indus rivers are divertedin Pakistan into one the world's largest canal irrigation systems. In the system some 33 million acres of the Indus Plains are served by about 38,000 miles of canals and by two major storage dams, Mangla on the Jhelumriver and Tarbelaon the Indus. Otherkey componentsof the systemare 17 major diversion barrages. 2. Floods in Pakistanoccur most frequentlyand are most extensive and damagingiin the IndusPlains. Becauseof differenthydrologic and topographic conditions,and their less densepopulations, floods in Balochistanand North West Frontier Provinces are not so extensiveor damaging.

3. Rivers in the Indus Plains are prone to channelaggradation, a gradualrise in the elevationof the riverbed, and consequentlyto a deteriorationin their capacityto carry high flows. This is a naturalcharacteristic that to some extent has been intensified by heavy withdrawals for irrigation and the construction of storage reservoirs. Floods in the Plains are generated in the mountainousupper catecment areas of the Indusand its tributarieswhere intense rainfall,snow-melt, steep gradients and limitedvalley storage can cause a rapid build up of high river flows. On reachingthe broad,relatively flat Indus Plains,flows with elevationsonly slightly above the river banks can spread and cause floodingover large areas,especially in Sind. Flood risk is most high duringthe July throughSeptember monsoon period.

4. Flood protectionin the Indus Plains is achievedlargely through the construction of flood protection embankments or bunds. In Sind Province, the Indus is bunded on both banks for virtually its entire length. In Punjab, marginal bunds have been constructed at all barrages and major river structures. Theseflow-directing embankments protect the works frombeing by-passed when the rivers are in flood. Overtoppingof bundsoccurs only rarely. However,failure or breaches can occur at any location and resultin the unpredictableinundation of large areas. Furthermore, irrigation canals can convey flood water long distancesfrom the point of river spill. In the Punjab, the general land slope is to the southwest;consequently, failures of bundson the leftbanks of rivers are particularly serious as water spilled will not drain back into the river. - 35 -

Arnnedix 1 Page 2 of 5

5. Improvement of the existing flood protectionsystem of leveesor bunds along the rivers is the only practicalweans, in the foreseeable future, for protectionagainst floods. A technicallybetter solution would be construction of a reservoircomplex of sufficientsize to providestorage and thusthe control of floods. Unfortunately,there are very limited possibilitiesfor the construction of such a complex at reasonable cost and no suchdevelopment would appear economicallyfeasible In the near future.

6. A flood forecastingard warning system has evolved over the years. A centralfeature of this system is a flood Warning Center (FWC) established each monsoon seasonat Lahore (Punjab)by the Pakistan MeteorologicalDepartment (PMD). Flood forecastingprocedures used by PMD includeestimating rainfall in the uppercatchment areas and usinghydrological techniques that take account of forecastor measuredrainfall, antecedent moisture conditions, time of year and riverbasin flow. B. The 1973 Floodsand RehabilitationProgr=m

7. In August1973 there were seriousfloods in Paklstanfor the firsttime in 13 years.Heavy monsoon rains caused breacher in the bi.ndsat ten placesin the Punjab and three places In the Sind, causing videspread inundation and severe damage. Altogether some 10 million acres were inu=dated, of which 4 millionwere under crops. 8. At the requestof the PakistanGovernament, IDA, in collaborationwith other specializedagencies of the U.N.system made an assessmentof the floodsituation in October1973 and appraiseda flood rehabilitationprogram for which an IDA Credit of $35 million was approv&d by the Executive Directors and signed in March,1974 (CreditNo. 466 PAR). Underthis Credit, US$18 million was allocated for industrialImports to relievethe impacton the balanceof payments. The other US$17million financed various activities directly related to flood damage, principally the repair and reconstruction of flood protection, drainage and road systems and spare parts and other items for agricultural equipment and Government construction machinery. 9. All restoration works under the 1974 credit were completed before the onset of the 1974 monsoon. This excellent progress reflected good cooperation and effortby the variousGovernment agencies concerned and close supervisionby consultants. The project Improved parts of the system to standards above the pre-floodconditions and the works stood up vell to the further severe floods which occurredin 1975 and 1976. Implementationof the industrialimports program financedunder the 1974 credit aloo progressedsatisfactorily. Although delaysin procurementof some specialized Items for agriculturalequipment and construction machinerynecessitated an extensionof the creditby 18 months,all funds had been committedby the ne ClosingDate of December319 1976.

10. In addition to its physical aspects, the 1974 credit initiated studies aimed at reducing the possibility of flood disasters in the loger term. For this purpose, the credit provided finanee for consultants to review the flood forecasting, warning and protection arrangemts * The consultants recommended improvements to the flood forecasting and warning system which have been incorporated in a UDDP/WorldMeteorological Organization Project In Pakistan. - 36 - Aupendix1 Page 3 of 5 Underthis project, a Qu8ntitativePrecipitation Measurement (QPM) Radar Station Is to be installed. Due to delays In approvalof the WMO/UNDP project, escalationin equipmentcosts made it impossibleto procureanother essential elementof the meteorologicalfacilities, a MeteorologicalSatellite Readout Station(MSRS) for identificationand trackingof intense monsoondepressions. The proposedIDA projectincludes the procurementand installationof the MSRS. 11. Underthe 1974credit, the consultantsalso completed a preliminarysurvey of flood protectionsystems in Pakistanand recommendeda full-scalestudy leaftng to che formulation of a national flood proteotion program. In linewith the consultantsrecommendations, the Governmentestallished a FederalFlood Commissionin January 1977 with responsibilityfor preparinga flood prot,.ction plan for the country.

C. The 1976 Floods 12. In the monsoon season of 1976 Pakistan experienced unusually heavy rainfall. During June through September, rainfall exceeded the 30-year average except for northern Balochistan by at least 502, but in many areas by more than 1002; for example, Lahore (Punjab) 1752, PePhawar (North West Frontier Province) 2302 and Jacobabad (Sind Province) 128Z. For 23 representative recording stations, rainfall in the four months exceeded that of 1973 by about 102. The rains fell with consiudrable intensity often in excess of lOOmm/day, exceeding soil absorptive capacity and causing heavier than usual runoff. This resulted in extensive and serious flooding as vel.. as damage from hill torrents and the direct impact of continuous torrential rain. 13. Much as In 1973, the Punjab experienced the first impact of the high rainfall when flows In the Rlvi, the most flood-prone river of the basin, and the Chenab river bagan to rise rapidly in the second half of July. Serious flash floodingalso occurred. Dischargesat the Ballokiand Sidhnaibarrages on the Ravi excuededdesign capacities, and on August15 the highestever dischargewas recorded at Sidhnai. Water levels in the Indus started rising in the thirdweek of July In the wake of heavy rains in its catebment area. When these flows were joined by those of the left bank tributaries at Panjnad, levels quickly rose to record peaks. On August 16, 1976 a new record of 1,200,000cusecs was establishedat the SukkurBarrage. High flowsin the Indus resultedin several breaches in the river's protective bunds and In canals,which resultedin widesprea4 flooding in Sind. Thie was exacerbated by unprecedented heavy rainfall in the first two weke of September in Sind and lalochistan which caused extensivelocal damage.

14. The floods, which inundatedmore than 20 million acres, and heavy rains causedloss of life, the destructionend damage of mwuchprivate propertyt in particular privatehouses, air' losses of crops and livestock. Four hundred and thirty people are reported to ,odied through drowning and through being buried under collapsed houses. A feature of the disaster was the collapse of houses and buildings whose structures became saturated with rain and floodwater. A very large number of public buildings were destroyed or seriously damaged. For example, a total of 8,900 educational institutionswere damaged,of which 6,100 were totally destroyed. Most of these vere mud-built primary schools, but 900 middle schools and 40 high schools were also destroyed. The mud-builthouses of - 37 -

A&Rendii 1 Page 4 of 5

-rural people sufferedmost. Some 18,000villages were affectedand it was estimatedthat over one millionhouses totally collapsed or were badlydamaged. Therewas considerablelose of grainand seed storedin thesebuildings. More than 3 millionacres of kharif(summer) crop were affectedby the floodingand the equivalentof about2.4 millionacres of cropswere totallydestroyed. 15. Damage to infrastructurewas also substantial. Eighteensections of railwaylines in Punjaband four .n each of Sind,Balochistan and West Frontier Provinceswere damaged.The nationalhighway network suffered extensive damage. In the Indus Plains,flood waters broke protecting bunds, breached embankments and submergedlow-lying roads. Where river originatingfloods did not occur, rainfallstagnated for weeks alongsideroads, saturating the subgrade. When theseroads were re-opened,traffic caused the pavementto disintegratesand on long stretchesthe roads sufferedserious deformation. 16. The stormsand floodscaused widespread damage in the irrigationsector. Severedamage was causedto 13 of the 17 barragesand to sevenof the major link canals. Severalserious breaches were made in floodprotection bunds, more than half of the canalsystem irrigating over 10 millionacres was damaged,and some 1,000public tubewells and a numberof smalldams were destroyed.In Balochistan the 62-ft.high Bolan dam was overtoppedand washedout. 17. Pakistanincurred an estimatedforeign exchange losses of over US$300 millionbecause of the floods. Lost cottonexports and edibleoil importedto meet deficitsin cottonseedoil productionaccounted for aboutUS$190 million. Lossesof storedgrain and, because of damageto irrigationfacilities, of rabi (winter)season wbeat, an estimatedUS$45 million in terms of exports or replacementimports, after deducting increas3-d production attributable to bettee soilmoisture conditions. The foreignexchange cost of the priorityrestoration program,was estimatedat aboutUS$60 million plus the cost of farmtractors (an estimated 400) needed to replace the 12,000 draft animals lost. 18. Becauseof the floods,budget revenuesfrom cottonexports declined by aboutRs 480 millionand other revenuesby Rs 200 million,a net loss of Re 680 million (US$68million). This figuredoes not includethe estimatedRs 2.23 billionneeded to restoreinfrastructure and publicbuildings to the pre-flood situation;GOP met these costs by externalassistance and by deferringor curtailingdevelopment schemes. D. The 1988 Floods

19. Pakistanexperienced two separateand devastatingfloods in 1988. In July and August,heavy rains fell in the uppercatcbment areas. This resultedin high flows in the Indus,Chenab and Jhelumrivers, which coincidedwith heavy rains in Sind. Flows of over 1.1 million cusece were recorded in August at the Guddu and Sukkur barrages on the lower Indus river. Serious flood damage occurred in Sind at this time. Also in August, extresmely intense rainfall occurred in the North West Frontier Province and Balochistan, causing flash floods and resulting in heavy damage. The second flood, which occurred in September and October, was caused by heavy rains in the upper catcbments in India of the Chonab, Ravi and Sutlejrivers where flows approached or exceededhistoric levels at most gauging stations. Damage from this flood was extremely heavy but fortunately was limited - 38 -

ADgendix1 Page 5 of 5 to Punjab. An estimated400 lives were lost, and three million people were made homeless.About onemillion ha or irrigatedcrop landwas inundated,with large losse, to the cotton, rice, and sugarcane crops, and major losses were experiencedin the large industrialarea along the Ravi river in the Lahore suburbs. A summaryof damageto publicinfrastructure (irrigation, drainage, flood protection,roads, railways, telephone and telegraph,schools, health facilities,etc) is as followss

(a) about 1,500 km of canals, drainagechannels and flood protectionworks in Punjab, three major canal commands in Sind, the Pat Feeder canal in Balochistan, and Warsak Lift and MamaKhil Jaded Canals in UWFP; (b) about 500 km of major flood protectionwork.; (c) over 3,000km of roads and related structures; (d) 15 sectionsof railwaystotaling over 100 breachesof embankments; (e) 2,150 publicbuildings; and

(f) a major telephone and telegraph coaxial cable between Multan and Bahawalpur, and telephone exchange facilities in Lahore.

20. It was estimatedthat as a result of these floods about one million hectaresof irrigatedcrop land and settledareas were inundated or otherwise adversely affected,resulting in large lossesto the cotton,rice and sugarcane crops. More than threemillion people were made homelessand about 500 lives were lost. 21. Immediatelyfollowing the floods,GOP and ProvincialGovernments mobilized reliefprograms and undertookrestoration measures wit theirown funds.However, the magnitudeof restorationwork requiredand the shortageof budget funds resultedin GOP's urgentappeals for internationaldonor assistancein this emergency.IDA respondedby instructinga water sector mission visiting Pakistan in October1988 to assessthe damageand need for assistance,and approvingthe SDR 30.6 million (US$40.0million) credit for restorationof selectedpublic infrastructurewhich is the subjectof this PCR. The Asian DevelopmentBank (ADB) approved a parallel project for US$44 million (Loan 957-PAK). Government designated specific administrative units to the IDA and ADB projects. In addition,the IslamicDevelopment Bank offereda loan of US$10million for the restorationof health,education, railway and telecommunicationfacilities, but this assistancedid not materialize. The IDA and ADB projects,including Governmentcontributions, covered the restorationto theirpreflood condition of almost all damaged public irrigation, drainage, flood protection and road facilities. - 39 - Paso 1 of 4

1992 FLOODDAMAGE RESTORATION PROJECT _ubnrolectSelection Criterig

A. GeneralCriteria

1. The followinggeneral and sector-specificcriteri are to be used In selectingsubprojects for Bank financing.Where 'the Bank' Is mentionedit shall be understood to refer to both the World Bank and to the AsianDevelopmet Bank, unlessthe contextrequires otherwise. Except as the Bank may otherise agree, each ImplementingAgency shall selectand prioritizesubprojects for inclusion in accordance with the criteriaset out in paragraphs2 to 5 below. 2. To be accepted for inclusion within the Project,the vorks under the proposed subprojects shall meet the following general criteria: i. The works are located within the area affected by the exceptional 1992 flood and rainfall events 1 , over the period July to September 1992;

ii. The works are a consequence of the 1992 flood and rain events, or are works which, if not undertaken, will degrade or severely diintishthe effectivenessof other flood dmage being repaired under the Project;

iii. The dmage has been caused by flooding and rains, either directly (through overtopping, scour, or similar action), or indirectly (through, for example, weakening of foundations, protection works or pavement structures leading to premature failure under traffic, etc),and will include breaches cut in road and otherembankments to reducethe impactof the flood; iv. Where conditionshave changedso significantlysince the original facility was constructed that a major improvement is now required, the proposed improvement will be subject to an appropriate economic evaluation, the results of which will be submitted to the Bank In support of a request to include the improvement in the Project; and V. Subprojects estimated to cost Re 25.0 million or more will require the Bank's prior review and approval.

11 The geographic scope of the assistance provided by the Astan Developaent Bank will be four provinces, i.e.Punjab, Belochistan, North West Frontier and Sindh. - 40 - Adia I Page32 of b 3. Proposed subprojects with the following works shall not be included within the Projects

Lo Works undertaken as an interim masure to provide provisional repair to damaged infrastructure (except when carried out under the circumstances for proavicial roads set out In pars D. a.11. followins) implemented to restore traffic access,, irrisation supplies and flood protection on an Interim basis or emergency basis which require replacement afterwards to meet appropriate construction standardso iI. Work.which are not flood-related(e.g. deferred maintenance);

III. Work. having adverse effects on natural ecosystem and the enviroament;

iv. Works financed by other donor agencies;and v. Worksexecuted by the military.

D. Sector-SaecificCriteria

4. Subprojectseligible for Inclusionwithin the Projectaccording to the abovegeneral criteria shall be subjectedto the followingsector-specific selectionand prioritycriterias

NationalXiahws and ProvIncialRoads ae National Highways and ProvincialRoads shall be selectedand prioritizedIn accordancewith the followingcriteria.

i. The roads are under the administrativecontrol of the National HighwayAuthority (MIA) or the provincial Communications and Work. Departments(CUDs);

ii. Roadswhich are includedIn otherBank financedprojects oan which work has yet to comuencemay be included In the project scope, but work on themwill be limitedto the inimumnecessary to maintain a reasonablelevel of trafficserviceability. Work. completedunder ongoing Bank-financedprojects, and which have subsequetly been damaged,may be includedunder the Projectfor restorationto the pre-existingcondition;

III. Soil or slope conditions are such that it is prudent to rehabilitate ratherthan relocatethe road;

iv. No now road construction shall be included if the facility did not exist before the flood; and - 41 - Aneudi 2 Page 3 of 4 v. The road is used primrily for comuercial and passenger purposes, with at least 75 percent of the traffic using it being of this nature; vi. A subproject must have components vith an estimted aggregate value of Rs 0.25 millionor more which, for the purposes of contracting, shall be grouped into contracts having an estimated cost of Rs 1.5 million or more. This grouping shall be applied having regard to the requirement that the works vithin a contract be contained within a sitgle district or equivalent administrative area. Where works cannot be packaged into a contract of the foregoing estimated value they may be included within the project scope only with the prior approval of the Bank. Irripation. DrainaLe and Flood Control Irriati0on and Drainage b. Irrigation and Drainage subprojects (defined for this purpose as aggregated works of any type and value within the same main canal commandarea and/or engineering jurisdiction) shall be selected and prioritized in accordance with the following criteria. io Willingnessby the beneficiariesto carry out from their own resources complementary and supplementary works; it. Larger size of command area and higher number of beneficiaries; preference shal be given to subprojects pertaining to large command ares and high numbers of beneficiaries; iLL. Preference shall be given to restoration of irrigation diversion, regulating and control structures; iv With respect to significant structures on civil canals in UWFP,such structures whichare beyondthe capacityof the beneficiariesto constructor restore may be includedonly whenthe beneficiaries agree to carry out through their own resourcesthe remaining restorationworks requiredto restorethe irrigationsupplies; v. Subprojectsrelated to restorationof the World Bank-financed SCARPA/tubewlls within fresh groundwater zones shall not be included; Vi. Subprojectsfor systemsrequiring major rehabilitation are not to be includedbut shouldbe taken up under the ongoingWorld Bank- financedIrrigation System Rehabilitation Project; and

1/ SalinityControl and RehabilitationProject - 42 -

Page 4 of 4 vii. Exceptwith theprior approval of the Boak,eligible subprojects are to have a minimum estimatedvalue of Rs 1.5 million. Flood Control

c. Flood controlsubprojects shall be selectedand prioritizedIn accordancevith the followingcriteria: i. The works are neededto protectagainst the risk of futurefloods and river erosion In relation to the number of towns and rural communities and agricultural lands and facilities;

ii. The socio-econOmic importance of areas and structures to be protected against future floods and river orosiong including barrages, irrigation facilities and other vital economic infrastructure; iii. The higher risk of land erosion and other environmental dmsgel iv. Non-structural measures (for example, resettlement, enforcement of applicable zoning regulations) do not constitute a more cost- effective and socially achievable means of restoring flood protection;

ve Substantial repairs and complete rebuilding of large spurs and contiguous sections of embankments within river reaches Included under the ongoing ADB-financed Flood Protection Sector Project shall not be included but shall be undertaken under that project eand vi. Except with the prior approval of the Bank, eligible subprojects are to have a minimum estimated value of Rs 1.5 million. Education (Primary Schools)/Health (Basic Health Facilitigs) 5. Education (Primary Schools) and Health (Basic Health Facilities) shall be selected and prioritized in accordance with the following criteria. i. School and basic health facility buildings are damaged beyond repair; and ii. Schools should have the requisite number of teachers and a high classroom occupancy. - 43 - Paso I of 5

fth=burolee Retoratio Stafndads and ImplmetMation hrAtU29ent

A. ar-uottlon

1. Subproj cts which meet the criteria for inclusion in the project are to be designd or otherise processed In accordnce with the following general reqiremets. Specific requirements for works vithin each sector are given subsequently. Where "the Bank" is mentioned, it shall be understood to refer to both the World Bank and the Asian Developmet Blank, unless the context requires otherise. L. In general, the replacemt Is to be equivalent In function to the facility damaged, with improvement being made only where necessitated on sound techuical or enirormental grounds. Iowever, where conditions bave changed so significantly since the original facility vwa constructed that a major improveamet is no required, for exmple the provision of a two lane bridge as a replcacemet for a damged single lne structure, the proposed improvement will be subject to an appropriate ecomic evaluation, the results of which wi be submitted to the Bank in support of a request to include the Iprovemet In the project; Li. Cost estimtes will be based on market prices for basic inputs, and il take particular account of prices bid for recent ADB/WorldBank fianced works of a similar nature being executed by the sam agency In simlar environmts; iii. Subprojacts estimted to cost llb 25.0 million or more, whether or not they are to be implementedunder a numberof contracts with values less than this amount,wil be subject to the Bank,sreview prior to the initation of bids. This review will encompas both technical details and also the contract documentation to be used for procure^met

iv. Advace contracting carwied out within the period 10 September to 30 November 1992 will be assessed as to acceptability for financing by the Bankunder the projecton a case by case basist - 44 - Anendix 3 Page 2 of 5 v. Biddtngperiods will be not less than 30 daysl".Contract periods will be reasonableand relatedto the natureand scopeof the works to be carriedout underthe contracts,but will not normallyexceed 30 month..No contractwill be awardedwhich ha. an implementation periodextending beyond the loanlcreditclosing date; vi. Contractshaving an estimatedvalue of Re 25.0million or more will be subject to the Bank's approval prior to award. Other work. will be subject to post review to ensure conformity with the agreed procuremet procedurest and vii. Supervision will be provided by the concerned implementing agencies assisted by consultants.

B. National HighbaWs and Provincial Roads

2. Subprojects which meet the criteria for inclusion in the project are to be designed or othewise processed in accordance with the following: L. Reconstruction will restore roads to their original specifications or to such higher specifications, including necessary additions or alterations, as may be warranted to ensure their operational performance and integrity over a reasonable life; ii. Roads which, pro-flood, had been provided with an all-weather surface will be provided with an all veather surface over a pavement designed in accordance with procedures used for ongoing MU and COYL2projects. Roads which had not been provided with an all- weather surface will not be provided with such a surfae. Road widths will not be increased, In termsof number of lanes, but may be increased by small amounts to enable a single lane road to meet the width standards of the PHR projects, or to enable a two lane road to meet the currently accepted width standards for two lane roads. Notwithstanding these provisions, widths shall not be increased where the damage is confined to only short lengths of a road on the remainder of which the width is below standard; Iii. Rehabilitation/reconstruction of cross drainage works (bridges, culverts, atc) will be carried out giving appropriate consideration to enwiromental, topographic and geographic conditions. The structures are to be sized to suit the hydraulic requirements of the

/ Longer periods may be required for works to be procured under ICB procedures.

I &4AslaDevelopment Boak financed Provincial Highways and Second Farm-to- Market loads (PMI) Projects. - 45 - Appendls 3 Page 3 of 5 site, including the provision of balancing culverts where none had previouslyexisted, for an appropriate return period. The original structuresare not necessarilyto be duplicated; iv. The widthsof replacementcross drainage structures are to suit the road functionand will not be increasedfrom singleto two lane unless,in certainexceptional cases, the trafficvolume using the structure warrants the provisionof two lanes. In such cases, as set out in para A (i) above, an economicanalysis of the proposed improvementwill be carriedout;

v. The designsof road pavements and in particular cross drainage structuresare to be reviewed to identify meansby which theycan be made more resistantto damagearising from flooding.In particular, attentionwill be paid to foundationdesign and to protectionworks;

vi. Notwithstandingthe thresholdfor pre-bid review given in para A (iii) above, the design and contract documentationfor the rehabilitationof the protectionworks associatedwith the Indus Riverbridge in D I Khan will be subjectto detailedreview by the Bank prior to the invitationof bids; vii. Bid documentsand bidding procedures, including invitation, opening, approvaland award,will be identical,except where specifically amendedby the loan/creditagreements under which the projectis being fianmced,to those usel1for ongoing Bank-financed BRA or CWDV projects,as appropriate;and

viii. Bids will be invited only f om contractorsprequalified by NH and CWDs for similarsized or largerworks, and who have performed satisfactorilyon thoseworks.

C. IrriLation.Drainaae and Flood Control

a. Irrigationand Drainate i. Projectworks will generallybe limitedto the restorationof damaged infrastructureto pre-floodconditions. For the "civil" canalsin NWPM, the restorationworks will be limited to the damaged infrastructure earlier provided by the Government to the beneficiaries and to new, large structures which are now requiredas the resultof the flooddamage but which are beyondthe capacityof the beneficiariesto construct.The restorationof irrigation infrastructure mainly comprises earthworks and concrete and masonry works for the rebuilding and repair of damaged storage and diversion

/I Second farm-to-Market Roads Project. - 46 - Appendix3 Page 4 of S structures, canal headworks, breached and overtopped canal embankments, damaged canal lining and structures and bridges. The restoration of damaged drainage Infrastructure principally involves desilting of surface and subsurface drains but also rebuilding and repair of drainage inletsand outletsand repairsof pumps except for SCARP tubewells in fresh groundwater zones,

ii. For rebuilding of irrigation and drainage structures and contiguous sections of canal lining, the designstandards and specifications developed under the World Bank/USAID/Dutch financed Second IrrigationSystems Rehabilitation Project will be applied;

iII. Bid documents and bidding procedures, including invitation, opening, approval and award,will be identical,except where specifically amendedby the loan/creditagreements under which the projectis being financed,to the modifieddocumentation and proceduresused for the irrigation/drainagecomponent of the recentlycompleted Bank-financed1988 Flood DamageRestoration Project.

b. Flood Control I. Project works will generally be limited to restoration of the damaged infrastructure to pre-flood conditions. The restoration works will mainly comprise repair and rebuilding of breached and eroded embankments and washed away and damaged river training works involving earthworks and repair and replacement of stone revetments and aprons; II. Restoration involving improvements will be allowed to provide a uniform level of flood protection taking into account the level of flood protection provided by the adjoining flood protection infrastructure. For completely or substantially damaged spurs within riverreaches not includedunder the ongoingFlood Protection Sector Project,the pre-flooddesign and conditionwill be reviewedand designimprovements madel/ to minimizethe risk of futuredamageg iII. Notwithstandingthe thresholdfor pre-bidreview given in para A (iii) above, the design and contract documentationfor the restorationof substantiallyor completelydamaged major spurs and bank revetmentsalong the Indus River and its tributarieswill be subjectto reviewby the Bank prior to invitation of bids. For this purpose, the consultant will prepare a report detailing the measures incorporated in the design to minimize the risk of a recurrence of the damage, taking into account the dynamic hydraulic and morphologic conditions within the concerned river reach; and

1/ This may requirehydraulic model studies to determine the optimal design. - 47 - &2enadl 3 Page 5 of S

iv. Bliddocuments and bidding procedures, including invitation, opeAnig, approvaland award,will be Identical, except where specifically amended by the loan/creditagreeent. under whch the project Is being financed,to the modifieddocumentation and procedures used for the flood control component of the recentlycompleted Bank- financed 1988 Flood Restoration Project.

D. Education (PrI=Xr Schools?) ad Heal_h _3tnsc _ealth lacilitie

3. Project works will be limited to rebuildin of primry schools of the Provincial Education Departmental/ and basic health facilities that are damaged beyond repair. For the rebuilding, of schoolo. the improved designs introduced under the 1988 Flood Damage Restoration Projects will be used&/. School. and basic health facilities at locations with a high risk of flooding or land slides will be rebuilt at an alternative location.

4. To the extent possible, eligible subprojectswithin a particular district or equivalentadministrative unit will be grouped for the purposes of contractinginto packages having an aggregatedestimated value of Re 1.0million or more.

5. Bid documents and biddint procedures, Including invitation, openings approval and award, will be identical, except where specifically amended by the loan/credit agreements under which the project is betig finncsed, to the modified documentation and procedures used for the education component of the recently completed Bank-financed 1988 Flood Restoration Project.

1/ Primary schools associated with religious Institutions will not be includedunder the Project.

2/ Some design modifications may need to be considered for schools located outside the flood plaines, In particular for the hilly area In WUUP. - 48 - pptandA4 Page 1 of 5

PAUCIETAll 1992 MMD DAMR RSTORATIONPlC¶

Togs ogfReferenc jor CoGnulinA SeCles

A. A consulting fir will be engaged to provide project management and engineering services to assist the Federal Flood Comission (FPC) of the Ministry of Water and Paver and the Implementing agenciesY. The services will Include: (i) overall project coordiation and administration; (1i) assistance to FEC and inplementig agencies In the selection of subprojects for Inclusion in the project; (iii) nginerin assistaee and construction supervision; (iv) mid- term project reviews and (v) preparation of a Project Completion Report. These services, further described below, relate to the restoration of public infrastructure demged during the exceptlonal floods and rains of 1992 in the affected provinces, and Include irrigation, drainage and flood control works, national highways, provincial roads priry education and basic bealth facilities. The consultant will be engaged by the Mixstry of Water and Power under procedures acceptable to the lan1 and will report to the FlC. Its principal objective will be to provide assstanlet to the Implementing agenies.

D. Sco of Serices l. Prolect Coordiptlion ad Admiitration The consultant will assist the lFC and implementing agencies ins I. coordination of project activities among the provinces and among the mplesenting agencies; iL. preparation and updating of y"rly work plan., budgets and financing plas;

1/ The National Highwy Authority (UEA)9 the Provincial Communications and Works Departmnts (CCDso),the Provincial Irrigation Departmets (PIDs) and the Prowinial Education Department (in Sindh and Punjab only). for the World Bak. i would inlude the Public Works Departments in AI and MWP.

V/ The Bank shall be understood to refer to both the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, unles the context requires otherwise. - 49 -

Page 2 of 5 iii. advisingthe field staff of the Implementingagencies in applying the project'simplementation procedures; iv. preparationof necessarydocumentation for loanwithdrawals; v. compilationand certificationof reimbursementapplications; and

vi. maintenanceof contract files.

2. Selectionof Subiro1ects The consultantwill assistIFC and the implementingagencies with the preparationof lists of subprojectsto be submirtedto the Bank to obtainits approvalfor their inclusion in the project. For this aspect of the services,the consultant'sresponsibilities will includethe following: i. on the basisof consolidatedlists of proposedsubprojects submitted by the implementingagencies, inspect the proposedsubprojects and reviewwhether they meet the selectioncriterial/ for inclusionIn the project; ii. for the subprojectswhich meet the criteria,prepare and submitto IFC and the implementing agencies, summaries of subprojects recommendedfor inclusionin the project.These summarieswill provide brief details of each subproject, indicate its compliance with the selection criteria, and its estimated cost. The summaries are also to include a brief implementationschedule for the subprojectswithin a province,broken down per provinceby sector and administrative unit; iii. on receipt of the Bank's approval, prepare a revised overall implementation schedule for the project, and use this as a basis for subsequentreporting. For largercontracts, this schedule is to show for each subprojectpreconstruction activities (design, approvals, procurement,award, etc) and constructionseparately.

3. EntineerinS Assistance and Suvervision The consultant will provide the following engineering assistance and supervision services: i. carry out chsecks,on preconstruction surveys and other pre- construction benchmark data as a check on works actually performed, for at least 20 percent of the subprojects (100 percent for HU) accepted for inclusion in the project; ii. review the designs prepared by the implementing agencies, assist in the preparationof these designsWhere necessary, and recommend

j -SeeAppendix 2 for criteriafor each sector. - 50 - Arnendja4 Page 3 of 5 cost-effectivedesign alternatives where the originaldesigns are assessedto be inappropriatefor the conditions,or not compatible with current technology. In carrying out this activity the consultant is to ensure that structures are designed to appropriate standards, including flood return periods for flood protection structures, cross drainage structures and road pavements; iii. review and ensure that cost estimatesfor subprojectsare based on market prices for basic inputs,and take particularaccount of pricesbid for recentADB/World Bank financedworks of a similar naturebeing executedby the same agencyin similarenvirorments;

iv. propose solutions for engineering and other problems encountered during implementation; v. liaisewith the consultantsengaged under ongoingBank financed projectsin the same sectors,to ensurean appropriatelycommon approachto technicaland procurementaspects of the projects; vi. assistthe implementingagencies with the packagingof all civil works and the engagementof all civil works contractors,in accordancewith the agreedprocurement procedures;

vii. carry out a pre-review of procurement actions for contracts to be submitted to the Bank for prior review; viii. review force account rates; ix. for all contracts,carry out post-award reviews of bidding proceduresand bid evaluationand certifythat agreedprocedures have been observed; x. providesupervision of the works duringall criticalconstruction stages,including after completion,to ensurecompliance with the contractconditions and specifications; xi. for the major bridgesto be constructedunder the HU componentof the project,provide specialized personnel to assistWNB in defining the scope and extentof the pre-bidinvestigations, reviewing the results thereof,and developingoutline documents for inviting design/buildproposals; assist in evaluatingthe proposalsand in the review and approval of the detailed design submitted subsequently by the lowest evaluatedbidder; provide resident supervisionat each site on a full time basis for the construction period,estimated to be 24 months; xii. providerandom checks, typically on not less than 20 percentof the total measurementsor testingrequired by the contractdocuments (100 percent for IRA), on quantities,through independent measurementof work done, and of quality, through arranging additional checking of key quality measures; - 51 -

Page 4 of 5 xiii. check and certify progress paymnt bills on a sample basis reprosenting at least 80 percent (100 percent for =A) of the total value of the works in each sector and prvince, and a11 final bills, prior to payments being made to contractors . Where the consultant observes that the contract povisions have not been observed, the certification of billa, and of consequent withdrawal applications is to be withheld until the deficiency is rectified; and

xiv. Where the consultant observes that, for a particular part of the works, the requirements of the contract specifications have not been met, he wil report the deficiency to the implemnting agency and suggest corrective measures. Should the deficionecy not be corrected, the paymaet for the corresponding part of the works, should it be made by the Implementing agency, will not be certified for reimbursement. 3. Proiect e Niot later than one year after loan effectiveness , the consultant will prepare a Project Review Report which will inluds: (i) a review of the project design and implementation arragements; (it) a review of the cost of the Individual subprojects and of the overall projected project cost; and (iii) a reassessment of the overall work plan.

4. otSM The consultant will prepare and submit to !FC, with copies despatched siultaneously to the mlwmenting ag¢eies and the Bank, the following reports: a. VonthlyrsMorts. to be brief and to consist essentially of graphical representations of progress against program, expressed as physical progress in flncial terms, baed on progress payments certified by the consultant and data provided by the implementing agencies. The report wil be broken down by sector, administrative unit, province and consolidated into a project wide report, and will be submitted within 21 days of the close of the reporting period. b. 2M=erLtr orta20re,providing brief nformation for each contr.act on a single line entry b"ais for project progress against program, in the same form as set out for monthly reports, for finace (contract paymnts, withdrawal applin.ations, imprestsapecial account and loan withdrawal status, availability of counterpart funds, etc) , problems and solutions proposed for them, and such other information as may be necessary. These reports will be submitted within 45 days of the close of the reporting period. Co Project CBamletion Resort=in aeordance with the lank's guidelies. - 52 - Annendix 4 Page 5 of 5

5S Duration of ServIceS and stinated Inauts The overall duration of the services will be 45 months, commencing In January 1993 and concluding In September 1996. The staffl.ng inputs to be provided by the consultant will total around 2,400 man-months of local professional staff. The supervision component staffing is to be based on the provision of a minimum level of consultant staffing to provide frequent inspections of the orks, checke on measurements, random sampling and testing, ete.

To provide specialist advice, the consultant will form an association with an acceptable International consulting firm, or with acceptable individual International consultants. This input, assumed for the purpose of estimating not to exceed44 manmouthsover a number of assignments,may include hydrology, hydraullcengineering with respectto rivertraining, structural engineering (in particular for the reviewof designsfor the major bridgesto be constructed under the NIh coeponentof ths project),geology and geotechnicalspecialists, environmentalprotection with respectto slopestability, and such othersas may becom necessary from tie to tine. - 53 - Aneondix5 Page 1 of 2

P=KSTAN 1992 nLOODDAMAGE RESTORATION PROJECT

ProcurementProcedures

A. CivilWorks 1. All procurementwill be carriedout in accordancewith the Guidelines for Procurementof eitherthe WorldBank (May1992) or theAsian Development Bank (March1989) depending on which institutionis financinga particularcontract, unless specificallystated otherwise in the legal documents.Generally Local CompetitiveBidding procedures will be adopted,although some largerHUA bridge contractswill be procuredthrough International Competitive Bidding procedures. LCB contracts will be advertised in at least one English daily local newspaper of wide circulation. At least 30 days notice period will be provided from the date of publicationof the press noticeor availabilityof biddingdocuments whichever is earlier to the last date of bid submission. 2. Road and associatedstructural works within the same districtor equivalentadministrative unit will be groupedto achievea minimumestimated contractvalue of Rs 1.5 million.For road work contractsregardless of size, bidswill be invitedonly from contractors previously prequalified or registered by BHA or CWDs, as appropriate,for similarsized or largerworks, and who have performedsatisfactorily on theseworks. 3. Irrigation/drainage and flood protection works within the same engineering jurisdiction will be grouped to achieve a minimum estimated contract value of Rs 1.5 million.For contractsestimated to cost more than Rs 25.0 millionbidders will be pre-qualifiedusing proceduresacceptable to the Bank. Prequalificationcriteria will includefinancial capacity, experience with works of a similarnature (to be supportedby certificatesof successfulcompletion from the agency for whom the works wcrs executed),and the resources- persomnnl, plant,etc - availablewith the contractor.For contractsestimated to cost less than Rs 25.0 million, bids will be invited from firms registered with the Provincial Irrigation Departments. 4. To the extent possible, school and basic health unit works within the same district or equivalent administration unit will be grouped to achieve a minimum contract size of Re 1.0 million. 5. Unless otherwise agreed by the Bank, works executed by force acco^unt will be accepted for financing only if they were commenced after September 10, 1992 and completed by 31 October 1992. For drainage and flood protection works, however, principally earthworks for spurs and embankments and drain desilting respectively, which have short implementationperiods and require the use of large equipment availableonly with the PIDs, the latter date will not apply. Civil works undertaken by force account will be accepted on the basis of rates per unit of work. These rateswill be determinedon the basis of the operation - 54 - Ana,dia S 1Page2 of 2 and maintenancecost of the equipmnt engaged,excluding depreciation cost, and the coat of labor and materials used. The rates will be reviewed by the consultant and adjusted whore necessary.

6. For works executed under contracts, the following specific procurement criteria will be applied: L. Bidlcontract documnts used for the purpose of iviting bids/awarding works, shall be documents cleared by the lank for use on similar works, under on-goinglank fundedprojects;

i. Blid security (bid guarantee) requirementswill be clearlystated in the invitationnotice and be strictlyenforced during bid opening, to ensure participation only by serious bidders; iii. Appropriate price adjustment clauses shall be used for all works where the specified completion period exceedstwelve montbs; iv. Bids shall be opened in public, at the time and place stated in the invitationfor bids, in the presenceof biddersrepresentatives who choose to be present.Bids shall be evaluated according to the criteria stated in the bid documents. The contract shall be awarded to the eligible and qualified bidder, who has offered a substantially responsive bid with the Lowest Evaluated Blid Price. Evaluation reports for contracts falling below the Bank's prior review threshold, will be cleared with the consultants after contract award; v. once reasonable competition has been ensured (through proper press notification and adequate time period for submitting bids), and multiple bids have been received, the implemsnting agency will not negotiate with the lowest evaluated bidder in an effort to reduce prices, when the prices bid are perceived to be high in relation to an estimate prepared on out-datedor inappropriatestandard schedulesof rates;and

vi. The implementingagency will consult with the Bankbefore rejecting all bids or inviting new bids. Rebidding to the same specifications shall not be done solely for the purpose of obtaining lower prices

B. Consultant Services

The Gcvernment proposes to negotiate with a domestic consultant to provide the services required under the project. Subject to the Bank concurring with the GOvernment's proposal, the consultant will be appointed in accordance with the Bank's Guidelines for the use of consultants. The Executing Agency will provide the Bank with a copy of the draft negotiated contract for its review and comment prior to signature. The contract will contain provision for payment to the consultants for services provided prior to contract signing, subject to those services not being financed from another source. - 55 -

Page I of b

1292FLOO DAX&0RRESTORATI PKOJKC?

Flood Forecast g ad &aIn SWReL

PrMseid MaradLn and imuv - Asia nm an

A. Oblective Scgon The objective of the proposed upgrading and iWrovment of the country's capability for floodforecasting and warningis to ininimealose of life and damage to private and public assets as the resultof severeflooes in the Indus liver and its main tributaries. It is enwisaged that the upgrading and Improvement will be achieved through the flood forecasting and warning component of the ongoing Bank-fianced (ADB) Flood Protection Sector Project and a complementary Technical Assistance (TA). The upgrading and improvemet will focus on the following areas: a. jWebatherR. A 10 cm weather radar will be procured and itealled in Lahors to provide for stom tracking and prediction of rainfall in the catebment areas of the Indus liver and its tributaries including those areas located In India. b. Teleetrr and 1F Radio Cojnuication. A telmetry system will be procured to collect and tranmit rainfall and water level data from stations In the catchment areas of the Tudus liver and its tributaries within the jurisdiction of Pakistan oan a real-time basis. This system will replace the present system which has already exceeded its useful life. In addition, around 25 UP radio sets for voice comaunication during floods will be procured.

c. J gmetg. A flow measurement program in combination with bathymetric surveys is envisaged to establish reliable rating curwes for selected river stations and berraess and to provide cross-sectional data of the rivers. The flow meaurSmt and survey program will provide data for the developmet of rainfall- ruoff and flood routing models. d. Flood Plain Maninag. Maps of flood-prone aras including contour lines and features of villages and infrastructure will be prepared on the basis of existing topographical maps, recent satellite imgery, aerial photographs flown In the 1970. and additional terr"trial surveys as required. These maps will provide data for the development of flood routing models and for the production of a flood warning manual. - 56 -

Page 2 of 4 , Hvdroloraand Meteoroloev.Various hydrological baseline studies will be carriedout Including,inter alias

1. development of methods and procedures for the forecasting of rainfall amount and duration associated with monsoon tropical depressions for all relevant catchments, based on weather radar and also including the Indin catcbmente of the relevant river.; it. collection, screening, validation and analysis of historical rainfall, water level and river flow data including, to the extent possible, data pertaining to the Indus tributaries In India;

ill. water balance studies; iv. establishment of tie series of water level and flow data for the calibration of various rainfall-runoff and flood r-outing models; v. specific hydrological studies to develop a model for forecasting 24 hour inflow volumes for the major reservoirs and to asees the potentialrole of thesereservoirs for flood attenuation; Vi., collection and analysis of information on the operation rules for the reservoirson the Indus tributariesin India.

A hydrological data base and processing system will be procured for data storage and anlysis. f. Develogment of Flood oreocastina Models. Rainfall-runoff and flood routing model, with data assimilation procedures (filters) for updatifg model results and parameters based on real-tim observed flow data will be developed and provided with a user- frieadly Interface. For the models and user-interface, available software will be used to the extent possible. The models will be tested based on the simulation of real-tim forecasting conditions for specific historical flood events and on actual flood condition. during TA inplementation. The models will also be made available In an off-line mode to serve for planning and design of flood protection works. g. 3gaogvorzMag g. The potential for reducing flood peaks and subsequent flooding through improved reservoir managementwill be assessed under conditions of inproved flood forecasting and early warning. Operation rules for flood periods will be reviewed, and modifications and related institutional arrangements proposed. The feasibility of a gated emergency spillway at mangla reservoir, to be operated in conjunction with an accurate flood forecasting systm, will be assessed at pro-feasibility level. - 57 - Aonendli 6 Page 3 of 4 h. Flood ganaent and Mitigation. Methods to rout sovers floods with a minimumlevel of damage will be developed and locations for breaching sections under various flood scenarios will be determined. Necessary improvments of hydraulic structureos including the construction of by-pa.s channels, will be assessed at pre-feasibility level. Proposals for structural and non- structural measures to contain damage as the result of unavoidable breaches will also be developed. The possibilities for flood plain zoning and legislation to prevent occupation of flood escape routes will be reviewed. i. Gecarauhical Information System. A 3-dimeusional Geographical IAformation System of the rivers and flood prone areas will be developed and linked to the flood forecasting models, in order to displayinstantly the areas likelyto be flooded,depths of flooding,etC. under various reservoir and flood management strategies, Including anticipated breaching.

J* Institutional Strentthening for Flood Modellina and Forecastina. To ensure the sustainability and the effective use of the improved floodmodelling and forecasting capabilities, present Institutionalarrangements for flood modelling and forecasting will be reviewed and strengthening measures proposed. Provision needs to be made to secure continuous maintenance and operation of the models. Training of staff in the improved modelling and forecating techniques vill be provided.

k. Flood Prenaredness and Early Flood Warning. A flood warning manual will be prepared providing information regarding vulnerability of villages and are"a likely for various flood scenarios. Measures to strengthen institutional arrangements for early flood warning and timely evacuation of vulnerable villages will be proposed. 3B. XUlamentatoa

An implementationperiod of three to four years is envisaged for the completionof all the various upgrading and improvement measures. The various ag1enies involved in the country's flood forecasting and maaget and early warning, including the Federal Flood Commission, WAPDA,the Meteorological Department and the four Provincial Irrigation Departments, will be fully associated vith the T& implementation. It is envisaged that the procurement and installation of radar and telemetry equipment (items a and b), the carrying out of the bathymetric muweys (partof item c), the floodplain mapping (item d) and the prefeasibilitystudy for the improvementsof hydraulic structures (part of Item h) will be carried out under the ongoing Flood Protection Sector Project. The otber activities could be included under a T&. - 58 -

Page 4 of 4

C. CoI The coot of the a11 the envisaged upgrading and iproveet measures and activitiesis estimatedat about $10.0 million of which about $7.0 millionwill be finaned through the ongoingFlood Protection Sector Project and $3.0 millionthrough TA funds. - 59 -

Pag I of 2 PAKISTAN 1992 PLOODDAMAGE RESTOR-TION PROJECT

Selected Documentsand Data Available In the Project FiLe

A. SelectedRenorte and Studisson the Sectoror Subsector

Al - Pakistan:Periodic Economic Report, October 8, 1992, prepared by Philippe Nouvel, Chief, Pakistan Resident Mission.

A2 - BriefingPapers, October 8, 1992, preparedby PetrosAklilu, Read of ProjectsUnit, PakistanResident Mission. B, SelectedRenorts and StudiesRelatinM to the Pro1ect

51 - Preliminary Reportso National EngineeringServices (Pakistan) Limited, 1992 - Flood/Rains Damage Restoration Project, October 1992. 52 - Project Report, National Enigneering Services (Pakistan) Limited, 1992 - Flood/Raine Damage Restoration Project, November 1992. C. Selected Workint Paners Cl - Economic Aspects of Flood, October 1992, prepared by S. Eggerstedt (Economist, ID). C2 - Enwironmental Considerations, October 25, 1992, prepared by T. Walton (Environmental specialist, Consultant). C3 - Highway Subsector Mission Report, October 28, 1992, prepared by B.P. tennedy(Highway Engineer, Consultant).

C4 - Damage to National Roads Recorded by ND. C5 - TelecomunicationsSubsector Mission Report, October 18, 1992,prepared by MikaelSergo (Sr. FinancialAnalyst, IDA).

C6 - Housing, Settlements and Relocations Subsector Mission Report, prepared by P. Jones (UrbanInfrastructure Specialist, Consultant). C7 - Agricultural Subsector MissionReport. CS - Primry Education and Basic Health Facilities Subsector Mission Report, November 11, 1992, A.S. Kinawy(Architect, Consultant). Working Papers linlude: Completed questionnaire form for schools ats (a) Shah Pur Teheil of Sargodha Division of Punjab Provice, 48 chools (b) Bhalval Tehoil of Sargodha Division of Punjab Province, 36 school. (c) Jhang Teheil of Faisalabad Division of Punjab Province, 65 schools - 60 - Aaendix Page 2 of 2

Sumary sheets for the number of damaged schools In Provinces of Punjab, UWIP, AJK and Northern Axas. The sumary shete Include estimated repair cost for schools in the four provices and in Sindh Province.

Assessmentof Flood Dmage.s 1992, providedby Education Department, showing umber. and etimates for coot of repairs for the Punjab Province, and broken down by Divisions. Copy of letter from Director General, Health Services, Punjab, to Dr. Iashir-ul-Raq) with 18 tables attached showingextent of dmages and estimated cost of repairs for basic health unitsIn PunjabProvince. Five tables on health facilities from Executive sgineer of Jhelum. IBRD23

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