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China Evergrande Group: Strategic Repositioning Toward a Sustainable Growth Model

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China Evergrande Group: Strategic Repositioning Toward a Sustainable Growth Model E-House China Evergrande Group: Strategic Repositioning Toward a Sustainable Growth Model Sponsored by MAY 2019 China Evergrande Group: Strategic Repositioning Toward a Sustainable Growth Model Over the last 15 years, China Evergrande Group has embarked on an astonishing growth path that saw its four-person team become one of the largest and most well-known real estate developers in China. The company’s explosive growth was built on a ‘high debt, high leverage, high turnover, and low cost’ model. But those giddy days are behind it. Evergrande’s old formula for success has been curtailed by government efforts to limit excessive corporate debt, with regulators sharply restricting access to credit, particularly financing through trusts and other shadow banking channels. Today, Evergrande and other top real estate developers are feeling the pinch from credit tightening as the country’s economy slows down overall. Evergrande has had to pivot and not only look for new THROUGH THE ROOF: EVERGRANDE’S revenue sources, but also search for a means to sustain EARLY SUCCESS growth through its new low-debt, low-leverage business In 1996, Xu Jiayin (also known as Hui Ka Yan in model. As an industry leader, Evergrande’s actions are Cantonese), a former state-owned steel industry being closely watched by many as an early indication employee raised by a single dad in rural Henan Province, of how well China’s real estate sector will be able to founded Evergrande Real Estate Group in the city of weather these unexpected headwinds. But in this next Guangzhou in southern China.1 In 2009, Evergrande phase of China’s real estate sector, what seems clear went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as one of is that victory will belong to those that can adapt most the biggest real estate developers in China. In 2016, easily to the country’s changing macro environment. 1 “解密许家印,” 人民日报海外版-人民网, June 9, 2010, accessed April 22, 2019, http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrbhwb/html/2010-06/09/content_539576.htm. 1 E-House Evergrande became a Global Fortune 500 company, with Exhibit 2: Product Focus of Major Chinese Developers contracted sales approaching 373.7 billion RMB or US $54.4 billion (see Exhibit 1).2 A year later, Xu became the Company Name Primary Focus Secondary Focus richest man in China, with a net worth of 290 billion RMB China Mass residential Mid- to high-end (or US $42.2 billion).3 Evergrande markets in 2nd and residential Group 3rd tier cities Exhibit 1: Top 10 Real Estate Developers by Contracted China Vanke Mid- to high-end Mass residential Sales in 2016 residential markets in markets in 1st and 1st and 2nd tier cities 2nd tier cities Developer Name Contracted Sales (RMB Bil) China Overseas Mid- to high-end Luxury residential Holdings residential China Evergrande 373.7 Country Garden Mass residential China Vanke 364.8 Holdings markets in 3rd and Country Garden 308.8 4th tier cities Greenland Group 257.6 Source: DBS Group Research, China Property Sector, report (BDS). Poly Real Estate Group 210.0 Evergrande gained recognition after pulling off an China Overseas Land and Investment 201.5 extraordinary feat for its first project. It managed Sunac China 150.0 to complete the entire project development cycle China Fortune Land Development 120.0 — including government approval, land acquisition, Greentown China Holdings 113.6 construction, sales and move-in — within a year.5 Xu China Resources Land 108.0 leveraged Evergrande’s initial success to obtain loans from banks, which financed the company’s aggressive 2017, accessed April 23, 2019, https://www.mingtiandi.com/real-estate/ expansion in Guangzhou city. In no time, its model of china-real-estate-research-policy/evergrande-chinas-2016-sales-king-as- top-developers-boost-performance-by-82/. ‘three highs and one low’ (high debt, high leverage, high turnover and low cost) proved to be a winning strategy. Evergrande was founded around the time the Chinese By the early 2000s, Evergrande was developing 13 government began to abolish the nationwide welfare projects across Guangzhou, making it one of the biggest housing system in favor of a private housing ownership developers in the city.6 Meanwhile, China had fully system. Back then, Guangzhou’s nascent residential liberalized the real estate sector, but it had also become real estate market was dominated by large, expensive fiercely competitive and highly fragmented. From 1988 condos in the urban center, which was true as well of to 1998, the number of developers in China exploded other major Chinese cities. As a newcomer with limited from a dozen to more than 24,000. However, the vast financial resources, Xu decided to focus on the mass majority of them remained local players.7 Not a single market instead (see Exhibit 2). He began offering smaller developer held more than 1% of China’s residential real condos in the suburbs, which had the advantage of estate market share.8 lower land and development costs as well as potentially faster turnover in response to strong market demand.4 Against this backdrop, Evergrande’s dominant strategy Evergrande’s focus on the mass market paved the way for was to build scale and outcompete the other players.9 its success even during turbulent times. One of its closest By 2004, Evergrande had expanded nationwide and was competitors since the beginning is Country Garden ranked among the top 10 developers in China by sales.10 Holdings. Evergrande’s strategy was to build a management structure with a single-minded focus on achieving scale. 2 “China Evergrande Group,” Fortune, accessed April 22, 2019, http://fortune.com/global500/china-evergrande-group/. 3 Hurun Research, Hurun Report Releases China Rich List 2017 in Association with 36G, October 12, 2017, accessed April 22, 2019, http://www.hurun.net/EN/Article/Details?num=5A320E03FD31. 4 Evergrande, “Evergrande Corporate History,” HKEX News, accessed April 22, 2019, http://www3.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2009/1022/03333/eevergrande-20091015-09.pdf. 5 “许家印：白手起家艰辛创业,” 凤凰网财经, January 21, 2009, accessed April 22, 2019, http://finance.ifeng.com/money/wealth/star/20090121/335245.shtml. 6 Ibid. 7 晓苏 孟, “中国房地产统计年鉴,” 1999年中国房地产统计年鉴, accessed April 22, 2019, http://www.yearbookchina.com/navibooklist-N2005110458-1.html. 8 Ibid. 9 Evergrande, “Evergrande Corporate History.” 10 Nikki Sun, “Chinese Developer Evergrande Tightens Belt after a Decade of Audacity,” Nikkei Asian Review, December 21, 2018, accessed April 22, 2019, https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Company-in-focus/Chinese-developer-Evergrande-tightens-belt-after-a-decade-of-audacity. China Evergrande Group: Strategic Repositioning Toward a Sustainable Growth Model 2 Xu and his team meticulously developed more than Another key pillar of Evergrande’s rapid expansion 6,000 rules and procedures covering everything from strategy was its vast land bank (see Exhibit 4). Since the procurement process to staff meals so that the 2004, the company had been sending hundreds of entire group operated in sync regardless of location.11 employees each year to scour cities across the country Standardization meant that Evergrande could assemble for suitable lands for development.13 As a result, and dispatch a project development team within two hours Evergrande amassed the largest land reserves of all of being notified of a project’s approval (see Exhibit 3).12 Chinese developers. By 2018, Evergrande held 822 pieces of undeveloped land in 228 cities, with a planned Exhibit 3: Evergrande’s Decision-making Structure gross floor area of 305 million square meters (3.28 billion Investment development square feet) of new homes, or the equivalent of nearly 10 Headquarters and bidding percent of Germany’s entire housing stock.14 It paid 513 Centralized Develop planning billion RMB (or US $74.7 billion) for the real estate.15 decision- and tasks making Evergrande’s land purchases were made possible Construction and product quality supervision in part by heavy borrowing. In addition to retained earnings from strong sales, Evergrande relied on a mix of Cost and quality state-owned bank loans and bonds to finance its growing standardization management land bank acquisitions during its early days.16 By 2008, Marketing and operations the company had received US $1.3 billion in convertible management bonds from a group of international investors including Execution of task from Temasek Holdings, Deutsche Bank and Merrill Lynch headquarters in the lead-up to going public.17 In 2009, the company Regional Company raised US $729 million from its IPO on the Hong Kong Project and construction Specific execution realization Stock Exchange, listing under the new name China Evergrande Group.18 Source: DBS Group Research, China Property Sector, report (BDS). Exhibit 4: Land Bank of Top Developers in 2017 Source: Group Research, “Revisiting Developers’ Land Banks: Landbank pace Likely to Remain Fast,” DBS, accessed April 23, 2019, https://www.dbs.com/ aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/GR/052018/180510_insights_revisiting_developers_land_banks_landbank_pace_likely_to_remain_fast.xml 11 “解密许家印,” 人民日报海外版-人民网, June 9, 2010, accessed April 22, 2019, http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrbhwb/html/2010-06/09/content_539576.htm. 12 Ibid. 13 Evergrande, “Evergrande Corporate History.” 14 Yizhen Jia, “Evergrande: China’s Biggest Property Developer Faces Debt Crunch,” Financial Times, November 29, 2018, accessed April 22, 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/bdcae980-eecf-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0. 15 China Evergrande Group, “Evergrande Interim Report 2018,” HKEX News, accessed April 22, 2019, http://www3.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2018/0928/LTN20180928375.pdf. 16 Paul Panckhurst and Emma Dong, “Evergrande Charts Show a Home Builder Dicing With Danger,” Bloomberg.com, October 31, 2018, accessed April 22, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-31/evergrande-charts-show-a-home-builder-dicing-with-danger. 17 Amy Or, “Evergrande Jumps 34% in Hong Kong Debut,” The Wall Street Journal, November 06, 2009, accessed April 22, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB125745135888131657.
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