Curriculum Vitae of Mohammad Hashem Pesaran, FBA
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Significance Redux
The Journal of Socio-Economics 33 (2004) 665–675 Significance redux Stephen T. Ziliaka,∗, Deirdre N. McCloskeyb,1 a School of Policy Studies, College of Arts and Sciences, Roosevelt University, Chicago, 430 S. Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60605, USA b College of Arts and Science (m/c 198), University of Illinois at Chicago, 601 South Morgan, Chicago, IL 60607-7104, USA Abstract Leading theorists and econometricians agree with our two main points: first, that economic sig- nificance usually has nothing to do with statistical significance and, second, that a supermajority of economists do not explore economic significance in their research. The agreement from Arrow to Zellner on the two main points should by itself change research practice. This paper replies to our critics, showing again that economic significance is what science and citizens want and need. © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. JEL CODES: C12; C10; B23; A20 Keywords: Hypothesis testing; Statistical significance; Economic significance Science depends on entrepreneurship, and we thank Morris Altman for his. The sympo- sium he has sparked can be important for the future of economics, in showing that the best economists and econometricians seek, after all, economic significance. Kenneth Arrow as early as 1959 dismissed mechanical tests of statistical significance in his search for eco- nomic significance. It took courage: Arrow’s teacher, the amazing Harold Hotelling, had been one of Fisher’s sharpest disciples. Now Arrow is joined by Clive Granger, Graham ∗ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (S.T. Ziliak), [email protected] (D.N. McCloskey). 1 For comments early and late we thank Ted Anderson, Danny Boston, Robert Chirinko, Ronald Coase, Stephen Cullenberg, Marc Gaudry, John Harvey, David Hendry, Stefan Hersh, Robert Higgs, Jack Hirshleifer, Daniel Klein, June Lapidus, David Ruccio, Jeff Simonoff, Gary Solon, John Smutniak, Diana Strassman, Andrew Trigg, and Jim Ziliak. -
Stolper-Samuelson Time Series: Long Term US Wage Adjustment
Stolper-Samuelson Time Series: Long Term US Wage Adjustment Henry Thompson Auburn University Review of Development Economics, 2011 Factor prices adjust to product prices in the Stolper-Samuelson theorem of the factor proportions model. The present paper estimates adjustment in the average US wage to changes in prices of manufactures and services with yearly data from 1949 to 2006. Difference equation analysis is based directly on the comparative static factor proportions model. Factors of production are fixed capital assets and the labor force. Results have implications for theory and policy. Thanks for comments and suggestions go to Farhad Rassekh, Charles Sawyer, Roy Ruffin, Ron Jones, Manoj Atolia, Santanu Chaterjee, and Svetlana Demidova. Contact: Henry Thompson, Economics, Auburn University, AL 36849, 334-844-2910, fax 5999, [email protected] 1 Stolper-Samuelson Time Series: Long Term US Wage Adjustment The Stolper-Samuelson (SS, 1941) theorem concerns the effects of changing product prices on factor prices along the contract curve in the general equilibrium model of production with two factors and two products. The result is fundamental to neoclassical economics as relative product prices evolve with economic growth. The theoretical literature finding exception to the SS theorem is vast as summarized by Thompson (2003) and expanded by Beladi and Batra (2004). Davis and Mishra (2007) believe the theorem is dead due unrealistic assumptions. The scientific status of the theorem, however, depends on the empirical evidence. The empirical literature generally examines indirect evidence including trade volumes, trade openness, input ratios, relative production wages, and per capita incomes as summarized by Deardorff (1984), Leamer (1994), and Baldwin (2008). -
User Pays Applied to Pro-Life Advocates
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Pope, Robin Working Paper The Big Picture of Lives Saved by Abortion on Demand: User Pays Applied to Pro-Life Advocates Bonn Econ Discussion Papers, No. 14/2009 Provided in Cooperation with: Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE), University of Bonn Suggested Citation: Pope, Robin (2009) : The Big Picture of Lives Saved by Abortion on Demand: User Pays Applied to Pro-Life Advocates, Bonn Econ Discussion Papers, No. 14/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE), Bonn This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/37046 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen -
Macroeconomic Dynamics Vol
TRIM SIZE 6x9" Macroeconomic Dynamics Vol. Dynamics Vol. Macroeconomic VOLUME 22 , NUMBER 1 , JANUARY 2018 MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS Volume 22 , Number 1 , January 2018 Contents Special Issue on Current Macroeconomic Challenges Edited by Giovanni Di Bartolomeo and Enrico Saltari ARTICLES Current Macroeconomic Challenges Giovanni Di Bartolomeo and Enrico Saltari 1 Overleveraging, Financial Fragility, and the Banking–Macro Link: Theory and Empirical Evidence 22 4 , No. MACROECONOMIC Stefan Mittnik and Willi Semmler Unraveling the Skill Premium 1 Peter McAdam and Alpo Willman 33 , January DYNAMICS Monetary Policy, Factor Substitution, and Convergence Rainer Klump and Anne Jurkat 63 Why is Optimal Growth Theory Mute? Restoring Its Rightful Voice Olivier de La Grandville 77 2018 Elasticity of Substitution and Technical Progress: Is There a Misspecification Pages Problem? Daniela Federici and Enrico Saltari 101 Stabilization and Commitment: Forward Guidance in Economies with Rational Expectations Andrew Hughes Hallett and Nicola Acocella 122 172 – 1 Optimal Inflation Targeting Rule under Positive Hazard Functions for Price Changes Giovanni Di Bartolomeo and Marco Di Pietro 135 Firms’ Endogenous Entry and Monopolistic Banking in a DSGE Model Carla La Croce and Lorenza Rossi 153 EDITOR: WILLIAM A. BARNETT Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. University of Athens, on 01 Oct 2021 at 15:59:22, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100518000068 MDY_22_1_cover.indd 1 29/01/18 7:54 PM TRIM SIZE 6x9" MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS Editor: William A. Barnett, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, 356 Snow Hall, 1460 Jayhawk Notes for Contributors Boulevard, Lawrence, KS 66045–7523, USA, and The Center for Financial Stability, 1120 Avenue of the Americas, 4th Floor, New York, NY 10036, USA. -
1.3 Don Harding and Adrian Pagan, 2009
SELECTED READINGS Focus on: Adrian Rodney Pagan February 2010 Selected Readings –February 2010 1 INDEX INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 8 1 WORKING PAPERS AND ARTICLES .............................................................. 10 1.1 Martin Fukac and Adrian Pagan, 2009. "Structural Macro-Econometric Modelling in a Policy Environment," NCER Working Paper Series 50, National Centre for Econometric Research. ...............................................................................................................................................10 1.2 Tim M Christensen, Stan Hurn and Adrian Pagan, 2009. "Detecting Common Dynamics in Transitory Components," NCER Working Paper Series 49, National Centre for Econometric Research. ...............................................................................................................................................10 1.3 Don Harding and Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," NCER Working Paper Series 39, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 02 Jul 2009. ......................................................................................11 1.4 Martin Fukac and Adrian Pagan, 2008. "Limited Information Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. ..........................................................................................................................11 -
The Causal Direction Between Money and Prices
Journal of Monetary Economics 27 (1991) 381-423. North-Holland The causal direction between money and prices An alternative approach* Kevin D. Hoover University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 94916, USA Received December 1988, final version received March 1991 Causality is viewed as a matter of control. Controllability is captured in Simon’s analysis of causality as an asymmetrical relation of recursion between variables in the unobservable data-generating process. Tests of the stability of marginal and conditional distributions for these variables can provide evidence of causal ordering. The causal direction between prices and money in the United States 1950-1985 is assessed. The balance of evidence supports the view that money does not cause prices, and that prices do cause money. 1. Introduction The debate in economics over the causal direction between money and prices is an old one. Although in modern times it had seemed largely settled in favor of the view that money causes prices, the recent interest in real *This paper is a revision of part of my earlier working paper, ‘The Logic of Causal Inference: With an Application to Money and Prices’, No. 55 of the series of working papers in the Research Program in Applied Macroeconomics and Macro Policy, Institute of Governmental Affairs, University of California. Davis. I am grateful to Peter Oownheimer. Peter Sinclair, Charles Goodhart, Thomas Mayer, Edward Garner, Thomas C&iey, Stephen LeRoy, Leon Wegge, Nancy Wulwick, Diran Bodenhom, Clive Granger, Paul Holland, the editors of this journal, an anonymous referee, and the participants in macroeconomics seminars at the Univer- sity of California, Berkeley, Fall 1986, the University of California, Davis, Fall 1988, and the University of California, Irvine, Spring 1989, for comments on this paper in its various previous incamatio;ts. -
Professor Robert F. Engle," Econometric Theory, 19, 1159-1193
Diebold, F.X. (2003), "The ET Interview: Professor Robert F. Engle," Econometric Theory, 19, 1159-1193. The ET Interview: Professor Robert F. Engle Francis X. Diebold1 University of Pennsylvania and NBER January 2003 In the past thirty-five years, time-series econometrics developed from infancy to relative maturity. A large part of that development is due to Robert F. Engle, whose work is distinguished by exceptional creativity in the empirical modeling of dynamic economic and financial phenomena. Engle’s footsteps range widely, from early work on band-spectral regression, testing, and exogeneity, through more recent work on cointegration, ARCH models, and ultra-high-frequency financial asset return dynamics. The booming field of financial econometrics, which did not exist twenty-five years ago, is built in large part on the volatility models pioneered by Engle, and their many variations and extensions, which have found widespread application in financial risk management, asset pricing and asset allocation. (We began in fall 1998 at Spruce in Chicago, the night before the annual NBER/NSF Time Series Seminar, continued in fall 2000 at Tabla in New York, continued again in summer 2001 at the Conference on Market Microstructure and High-Frequency Data in Finance, Sandbjerg Estate, Denmark, and wrapped up by telephone in January 2003.) I. Cornell: From Physics to Economics FXD: Let’s go back to your graduate student days. I recall that you were a student at Cornell. Could you tell us a bit about that? RFE: It depends on how far back you want to go. When I went to Cornell I went as a physicist. -
Raise the Minimum Wage He Minimum Wage Has Been an Important Part of Our Tnation’S Economy for 68 Years
Hundreds of Economists Say: Raise the Minimum Wage he minimum wage has been an important part of our Tnation’s economy for 68 years. It is based on the principle Hard work of valuing work by establishing an hourly wage floor beneath which employers cannot pay their workers. In so doing, the minimum wage helps to equalize the imbalance in bargaining deserves power that low-wage workers face in the labor market. The minimum wage is also an important tool in fighting poverty. fair pay The value of the 1997 increase in the federal minimum wage has been fully eroded. The real value of today’s federal minimum wage is less than it has been since 1951. Moreover, the ratio of the minimum wage to the average hourly wage of non-supervisory workers is 31%, its lowest level since World War II. This decline is causing hardship for low-wage workers and their families. We believe that a modest increase in the minimum wage would improve the well-being of low-wage workers and would not have the adverse effects that critics have claimed. In particular, we share the view the Council of Economic Advisors expressed in the 1999 Economic Report of the President that "the weight of the evidence suggests that modest increases in the minimum wage have had very little or no effect on employment." While controversy about the precise employment effects of the minimum wage continues, research has shown that most of the beneficiaries are adults, most are female, and the vast majority are members of low-income working families. -
A Study of Selected Countries in Latin America
GLOBAL JOURNAL OF BUSINESS RESEARCH ♦ Volume 1 ♦ Number 2 ♦ 2007 THE SELECTION OF THE DISCOUNT RATE IN ESTIMATING LOSS GIVEN DEFAULT Lucia Gibilaro, University of Bergamo-Italy Gianluca Mattarocci, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”- Italy ABSTRACT Loss Given Default (henceforth the LGD) is the ratio of losses to exposure at default. It includes the loss of principal, the carrying costs of non-performing loans and workout expenses. In light of the management and regulatory advances regarding LGD, this paper addresses the topic of choosing the proper rate to estimate the current value of recoveries. By means of a review of the available literature on LGD, the impacts of different solutions for the discount rate (contractual rate, risk-free rate and single-factor approaches) on the variability of LGD are analyzed and compared. In order to understand the influence of market constraints from both the static and dynamic standpoints, the paper studies the methodologies for the selection of the discount rate. Considering the limitations of the approaches found in both academic and operational literature, the paper proposes a multi-factor model to measure the discount rate based on systemic and specific factors. These factors, in light of the aggregate empirical evidence, can serve as explanations for the variability of LGD. INTRODUCTION hen a debtor enters into the state of insolvency, the lender changes his primary approach from that of debtor to collector. The goal becomes to initiate the set of activities that will originate Wthe maximum positive cash flows in the recovery process. The Loss Given Default (henceforth the LGD) is the amount of losses in the case of default and it represents an important management variable for any financial intermediary (Carey, 1998). -
Alec Ian GERSHBERG, Ph.D
Alec Ian GERSHBERG, Ph.D. University of Pennsylvania School of Arts & Sciences/Sociology Department Mail: 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104 Office: Solomon Bldg, D15, 3720 Walnut Street Ph: (215) 573-2801 Fax: (206) 600.6545 Email: [email protected] Skype: AlecGershberg Twitter: @AlecGershberg EDUCATION University of Pennsylvania, Regional Science Department Philadelphia, Pa., USA. Ph.D. awarded December 1993; M.A. Degree December 1990. Dissertation Title: "Fiscal Decentralization, Intergovernmental Relations, and Education Finance: Welfare and Efficiency Considerations in Educational Expenditures and Outcomes in Mexico" Teaching Activities: Lecturer -- Latin American Geography; Writing Fellow, university program aimed at raising the level of undergraduate writing capabilities and written work. Brown University. Providence, R.I., USA 9/82 - 5/86 B.A. degree with honors from two academic departments: 1) American Civilization Department and 2) Literature & Society Department. Selected for training as a writing instructor through Rose Writing Fellows Program. Varsity Ski Team. Honors Thesis Title: "Salvation by Technology: The first decade of Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) rhetoric." RESEARCH & TEACHING INTERESTS Education Policy, School Governance & Accountability, Political Economy of Reform, Comparative & International Education, Systems Thinking, Economics of Education, Education Finance, International Development, Human Development, , School-to-work transition, Education & Labor Markets, Immigrant Education & Immigration -
Murray Guy 453 West 17 Street New York NY 10011 T: +1 212 463 7372 F: +1 212 463 7319 [email protected]
Murray Guy 453 West 17 Street New York NY 10011 T: +1 212 463 7372 F: +1 212 463 7319 [email protected] ZOE LEONARD Born 1961 Liberty, New York Lives and works in New York, NY Solo Exhibitions 2013 Chinati Foundation, Marfa, TX 2012 Murray Guy, New York, NY Sun Photographs, Raffaella Cortese, Milan, Italy Zoe Leonard. Observation Point, Camden Arts Centre, London, UK 2011 Available Light, Galerie Gisela Capitain, Cologne, Germany 2009 Photographs, Museum Moderner Kunst Stiftung Ludwig, Vienna, Austria Photographs, Pinakothek der Moderne, Munich, Germany 2008 You See I am here after all, Dia:Beacon, New York, NY Derrotero, Dia at the Hispanic Society of America, New York, NY Photographs, Museo Nacional Centro de Arte Reina Sofia, Madrid, Spain Galería Pepe Cobo, Madrid, Spain 2007 Zoe Leonard, Photographs, Fotomuseum Winterthur, Winterthur, Switzerland Analogue, Villa Arson, Nice, France Analogue, Wexner Center for the Arts, Columbus, OH 2006 Project: Zoe Leonard, Galerie Gisela Capitain, Cologne, Germany 2003 New Work, Paula Cooper Gallery, New York, NY Galerie Giti Nourbakhsch, Berlin, Germany 2002 The Agency for Contemporary Art, London, UK 2001 Anthony Meier Fine Arts, San Francisco, CA Galerie Gisela Capitain, Cologne, Germany Raffaella Cortese, Milan, Italy 2000 Paula Cooper Gallery, New York, NY 1999 Micheline Szwajczer Gallery, Antwerp, Belgium Centre for Contemporary Art, Ujazdowski Castle, Warsaw, Poland Gallery Anadiel, Jerusalem, Israel Recent Photographs, Paula Cooper Gallery, New York, NY 1998 Centre National de la Photographie, -
COMMISSION on MUSEUMS AD HOC – MEETING, MUNICH, OCTOBER 25Th, 2002
MINUTES FROM THE IMA – COMMISSION ON MUSEUMS AD HOC – MEETING, MUNICH, OCTOBER 25th, 2002 The annually Ad Hoc – Meeting was held on Friday, October 25th, 2002 from 4:00 pm in the meeting room A 51 during the Munich fare 2002. 17 curators from 8 countries attended the meeting. The secretary of the CM Kay U. Schuermann (Marburg/Germany) gave a short summary of the results of the IMA – buisiness meetings in Edinburgh. After a short discussion about the decisions made by IMA the following short statements were made: G.C. Parodi (SFMC Paris) mentioned their “Volcano Exhibition” and the closing of the gallery for about 3 years. The Florence University Natural History Museum (C. Cipriani) made parts of the “Medici Collection of Carved Stones” visible. T. Huizing from MNH Cincinnati/USA told us, that the new collection building has a costing of about 8 Mill. $ - 80% of the costs are was raised by admission of 1.4 Mill. visitors last year. The Freiberg Museum (A. Massanek) solved one of the most serious problems for bigger collections: 50 t of radioactive material will be deposited in the former mine “Reiche Zeche”, which is situated within a 25 min. footwalk from the museum. In addition there will be a new exhibition about “Historical Diamonds”. The situation of geosciences in Berlin is is more and more difficult, as H.J. Bautsch (NHMB) and S. Herting-Agthe (TU) stated. The latter collection will install a new website. F. S. Nordrum (Kongsberg) reported from Oslo about a complete reorganisation within the last years: 3 “Natural” departments (Zoology, Botanic, and Geology) with 3 curators headed by one professorship are developed.