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Igaming Initiating Coverage 30 November 2017

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Igaming Initiating Coverage 30 November 2017 iGaming Initiating Coverage 30 November 2017 Two Kings and a Prince Sector iGaming We initiate coverage of Evolution Gaming (Buy, target price SEK 800), NetEnt (Buy, target price SEK 70) and Kambi (Buy, target price SEK 97) as we see various growth opportunities and in most cases margins scaling. Evolution Gaming is the market leader in its niche of live casino and we believe the market has not yet fully realised its longer term growth and margin opportunities. NetEnt is the leader in slots but growth rates are coming down (so have valuations) after some fantastic years and we foresee continued high quality, innovative content from the company. Kambi (sportsbook) has been struggling to scale on its opex but we really believe the trend has turned and that growth and margins will trend upwards from now on. Evolution Gaming – The King of Live – Buy, target price SEK 800 Over the period 2017-2020E we expect Evolution Gaming to remain the market leader within the European live casino market as it constantly aims to improve its already highly appreciated live casino product to widen the gap with the competition even further and thereby capture a larger share of the growth that is expected to come. NetEnt – The King of slots – Buy, target price SEK 70 We expect NetEnt to continue to dominate slot games, but with competitors' live casino products taking market share from slots, increased tax pressure and "everyone" already a client, we expect fading revenue growth, although scaling effects on opex will see EBITDA margins trend upwards somewhat. We expect NetEnt to report a sales CAGR for 2017-2020E of 11.5% and an EBIT CAGR of 11.8%, and after the recent share price decline, we still see some upside although we cannot argue for multiples in line with historical valuations as Analysts growth is slowing. Meanwhile, we acknowledge the long-term Lars-Ola Hellstrom opportunities (beyond our estimate horizon) with new markets such as +46 8 402 5277, [email protected] the US and Latin America. Viktor Högberg +46 84 02 52 76, [email protected] Kambi – The Prince of sports – Buy, target price SEK 97 We see growth picking up again after a disappointing 2017 (hit by contract renegotiations). With this behind the company, we expect a sales CAGR of 14% in 2017-2020E with EBIT margins scaling further, from 7.7% in 2017E to 13.0% in 2020E. Our estimates do not include further signings but we believe Kambi stands a good chance of bringing home new contracts ahead of FIFA 2018 and with regulation in Sweden and the Netherlands coming up. As we do expect further signings we argue that Kambi trading at around a 10% premium to its three-year historical average NTM EBIT multiple is justified, with potential signings possibly bringing down the valuations considerably. M Cap P/E (adj.) EV/EBIT (adj.) EV/Sales Share performance Company Price (SEK) Rating Target FX (EURm) 17e 18e 19e 17e 18e 19e 17e 18e 19e 1m 3m 6m Evolution Gaming 570.0 Buy 800 EUR 2,070 34.2 27.7 23.7 30.6 24.6 20.8 11.5 8.6 7.0 -5 % 18 % 43 % Kambi 85.8 Buy 97 EUR 259 67.2 30.9 27.8 47.4 21.9 19.6 3.9 3.1 2.7 7 % 21 % -4 % NetEnt 60.7 Buy 70 SEK 1,471 25.4 21.5 19.1 22.5 19.0 16.7 8.4 7.2 6.3 -11 % -20 % -16 % Kindred 112.3 Buy 130 GBP 2,578 20.1 17.0 18.6 19.1 15.7 16.6 3.3 2.7 2.4 6 % 32 % 24 % Betsson 59.9 Hold 78 SEK 836 10.5 9.9 10.1 10.5 9.4 9.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 -10 % -19 % -26 % LeoVegas 83.3 Buy 90 EUR 838 37.5 19.3 16.7 33.9 16.7 13.9 3.9 2.5 2.0 3 % 23 % 55 % Mr Green 55.5 Buy 67 SEK 229 18.8 13.1 12.3 15.0 8.8 7.2 1.5 1.1 0.8 -3 % 13 % 41 % Cherry 44.8 Buy 63 SEK 447 45.7 16.0 13.7 20.6 12.2 9.8 2.5 2.1 1.7 -21 % -10 % -24 % Catena Media 87.5 Buy 118 EUR 459 18.2 14.8 13.0 18.1 13.1 11.5 8.3 6.3 5.5 16 % -1 % -13 % Aspire Global 38.4 Buy 41 EUR 180 14.8 14.8 12.4 12.4 11.3 9.1 2.2 1.7 1.4 13 % -1 % nmf * Multiples based on FactSet consensus Please refer to importantThis disclosuresreport is generated on thefor Viktor last Högberg 5 pages of this document iGaming Initiating Coverage Table of contents Market overview ......................................................................................................... 3 Regulatory overview .................................................................................................. 11 Peer table based on FactSet consensus..................................................................... 20 Evolution Gaming – The King of Live ......................................................................... 21 Company description ................................................................................................. 22 Financial estimates .................................................................................................... 35 Valuation ................................................................................................................... 49 NetEnt – The King of Slots ......................................................................................... 53 Company description ................................................................................................. 54 Financials ................................................................................................................... 63 Valuation ................................................................................................................... 75 Kambi – The Prince of Sports ..................................................................................... 80 Company description ................................................................................................. 81 Financial history ......................................................................................................... 94 Estimates ................................................................................................................... 97 Valuation ................................................................................................................. 104 30 Nov 2017 Pareto Securities Research 2(112) This report is generated for Viktor Högberg iGaming Initiating Coverage Market overview In this section we focus on casino and sports betting, the main products offered by the online gambling companies. Other products such as poker usually account for less than 10% of a typical Nordic operator. Online casino Online casino entails products such Virtual slot machines are the main online casino product and are offered by most as slots, Roulette, Baccarat and operators. There are thousands of slots, one of the largest and most well-known Black Jack is Starburst, created by Swedish game developer NetEnt in 2012. Among other products offered are table games such as Roulette, Baccarat and Black Jack. Live casino has emerged as a fast-growing segment in the past couple of years, taking share from slots. Here live dealers in studios make the gambling experience more interactive for the player. The payout ratios (return to player, RTP) per product differ and for slots the payout ratios range from ~92-98% depending on the product. For example, the RTP of Starburst is 96.1% (on an infinite amount of spins). Sportsbook Sportsbook margins are more Sports betting has been around for centuries and the segment migrated online volatile than casino margins, but early. Bookmakers with a legacy of land-based betting shops and pure online the market is larger newcomers alike offer odds to players on a wide range of sports and events 24/7. Since sports betting is based on odds on events that are impossible to predict, the margins are more volatile than in the casino segment (however evening out over time), and the average payout ratios are around 92-93%. Pre-match and live betting have different margins odds and thus margins and the margins also depend on geography and popularity of an event. Sports betting is often regarded as a good customer acquisition tool, used by some operators to channel players to their casino offering. Generally, the customer acquisition costs for sports betting players are lower than for casino players. The sports betting market is larger than the casino segment and in 2016 the European online sports betting market accounted for EUR 8bn while the casino market was EUR 5.8bn. Global market size is huge, but most gambling is still offline In 2016, the world gambling Research firm H2 Gambling Capital (H2GC) estimates* that in 2016, the total market was worth EUR 346bn, of market size (revenue from all products** and white and grey markets***) of which ~12% is online online and offline gambling in the world amounted to EUR ~345bn, of which 12%, or EUR 38n, was online. Below, we focus on the European market, the most relevant geography for the Nordic-facing operators and also because the spread in maturity between Europe and the rest of the world skews the data. Our sub-focus is online betting and casino, excluding lotteries, poker and other gambling products, since online betting and casino make up ~71% of the European online market. All market data estimates are from H2GC. *All H2GC data is gross gaming revenue. GGR = player bets minus wins, including bonuses. **All products: betting, casino, gaming machines, bingo/other gaming, lotteries. ***White market: operator licensed in same jurisdiction as player. Grey market: operator licensed but in another jurisdiction than player. Gambling market breakdown for Europe, 2016 Global gambling market 2016 345 EURbn Europe 98 EURbn Online Offline 19.4 EURbn 79.8 EURbn Gaming Betting Casino Poker Lotteries Other Betting Casino Machines Bingo
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