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Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 91-528-X Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada Demography Division Statistics Statistique Canada Canada How to obtain more information For information about this product or the wide range of services and data available from Statistics Canada, visit our website at www.statcan.gc.ca, e-mail us at [email protected], or telephone us, Monday to Friday from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., at the following numbers: Statistics Canada’s National Contact Centre Toll-free telephone (Canada and United States): Inquiries line 1-800-263-1136 National telecommunications device for the hearing impaired 1-800-363-7629 Fax line 1-877-287-4369 Local or international calls: Inquiries line 1-613-951-8116 Fax line 1-613-951-0581 Depository Services Program Inquiries line 1-800-635-7943 Fax line 1-800-565-7757 To access this product This product, Catalogue no. 91-528-X, is available free in electronic format. To obtain a single issue, visit our website at www.statcan.gc.ca and browse by “Key resource” > “Publications.” Standards of service to the public Statistics Canada is committed to serving its clients in a prompt, reliable and courteous manner. To this end, Statistics Canada has developed standards of service that its employees observe. To obtain a copy of these service standards, please contact Statistics Canada toll-free at 1-800-263-1136. The service standards are also published on www.statcan.gc.ca under “About us” > “The agency” > “Providing services to Canadians.” Statistics Canada Demography Division Population andFamily Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada Demographic Analysis Section Published by authority of the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada © Minister of Industry, 2012 All rights reserved. Use of this publication is governed by the Statistics Canada Open Licence Agreement (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/reference/copyright-droit-auteur-eng.htm). March 2012 Catalogue no. 91-528-X ISBN 978-1-100-19900-9 Frequency: occasional Ottawa La version française de cette publication est disponible sur demande. Note of appreciation Canada owes the success of its statistical system to a long-standing partnership between Statistics Canada, the citizens of Canada, its businesses, governments and other institutions. Accurate and timely statistical information could not be produced without their continued cooperation and goodwill. Symbols The following standard symbols are used in Statistics Canada publications: . not available for any reference period .. not available for a specifi c reference period … not applicable 0 true zero or a value rounded to zero 0s value rounded to 0 (zero) where there is a meaningful distinction between true zero and the value that was rounded p preliminary r revised x suppressed to meet the confi dentiality requirements of the Statistics Act E use with caution F too unreliable to be published Acknowledgements This manual was prepared by the Demographic Estimates Section, Demography Division under the editorship of Shirley Loh. The written work was based on numerous sources and represents the collaborative work of many individuals in Demography Division and other related divisions, such as Social Survey Methods Division, Income Statistics Division and Health Statistics Division at Statistics Canada. Demographic methods also rely on a number of administrative records maintained by various government bodies responsible for managing these programs; namely, the Canada Revenue Agency and Citizenship and Immigration Canada and the various provincial and territorial bodies responsible for reporting vital events to the bureau. Inspired from previous editions of this report, the implicit contribution of many others is thus acknowledged. While many people provided valuable input or assistance, special recognition must be given to André Cyr, Vincent Dale, Sylvie DeBlois, Hubert Denis, Hélène Landry, André Lebel and Denis Morissette who spent countless hours editing and providing guidance and information in all stages of the development of the manual. Selected chapters were written by or largely based on the work of the following persons in Demography Division: Julien Bérard-Chagnon, André Cyr, Denis Morissette and Peter Wilkinson. Christian Thibault and Peter Dick (Social Survey Methods Division), Geneviève Ouellet and Julie Dussault (Demography Division) also offered their expertise, background information and editorial comments. Finally, Nicole Montsion and Janie Saumure provided technical expertise in the publication process. Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 91-528-X Table of Contents Table of Contents Introduction ........................................................................................................................8 Chapter 1 Postcensal and intercensal population estimates, Canada, provinces and territories ..........................................................................................14 Chapter 2 Base population ........................................................................................28 Chapter 3 Births and deaths ....................................................................................46 Chapter 4 Immigration ..............................................................................................50 Chapter 5 Net non-permanent residents .................................................................52 Chapter 6 Emigrants, net temporary emigrants and returning emigrants ..........58 Chapter 7 Interprovincial migration .......................................................................74 Chapter 8 Subprovincial estimates of population ...................................................83 Chapter 9 Population estimates by age, sex and marital status ............................96 Chapter 10 Estimates of census families, economic entities and households........112 Glossary ..........................................................................................................................121 References .......................................................................................................................130 List of Tables Table I Availability of population estimates and components of demographic growth ......................................................................................................10 Table 1.1 Sources and references of postcensal population estimates — Component data .......................................................................................17 Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 91-528-X 6 Table of Contents Table 6.1 Calculation of the delay factors: An illustration for production year 2011............................................................................................................64 Table 9.1 Percent distribution of husband-wife families by age group of wife and age group of husband according to the legal marital status concept: Ontario, 2001 Census .............................................................105 Table 9.2 Calculation of the incidence of widowhood according to the legal marital status concept: An example for females aged 45 to 49 years, Ontario, 2001/2002 .................................................................................107 Table 10.1 Sources, references and role of data used to produce estimates of census families, economic entities and households .............................114 Table 10.2 Possible situations for calculating census correction coefficients ......115 List of Figures Figure 1.1 International migration flows for Canada .............................................15 Figure 1.2 Lexis diagram showing intercensal estimation......................................23 Figure 5.1 Non-permanent residents flows by broad type .....................................53 Figure 9.1 Transition from a distribution of demographic events by age and period to a distribution by age and birth cohort ..................................98 Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 91-528-X 7 Introduction Introduction Population and family estimation methods at Statistics Canada Demographic estimates are the cornerstone of statistical measurement for the population and are put to a wide variety of uses to better understand the economic and social situation in Canada. Their importance is underscored by the statutory requirements for the calculation of revenue transfers and cost-sharing programs between the various levels of government. As the National Statistical Agency responsible for these data, among others, timeliness, accuracy and reliability of these data are of the utmost importance. Every five years, Statistics Canada conducts a national census of population, through which a wide range of demographic data is collected on the Canadian population. The census collects information on citizens, immigrants and non-permanent residents (NPR) residing in Canada. While some countries have a system of continuous population registration from which to obtain basic demographic data on the state and movement of the population for non-census years, it is not the case in Canada. At a five year interval, the census cannot fill the need for timely data that are required by the various statistical programs in Statistics Canada as well as outside users of data. To fill this gap in the information system, Statistics Canada has a Demographic Estimates Program. By using the most recent census data collected by Statistics Canada and administrative data provided by other government departments, various methodological techniques are used to produce estimates of
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