TQ COVERUS CMYK Cyan Magenta Yellow Black

How to build Towards the Prius-hackers and a Babel fish cyborg soldier the 100mpg car TechnologyQuarterly June 10th 2006

Can robots be trusted? The challenge of making sure robots do no harm

Republication, copying or redistribution by any means is expressly prohibited without the prior written permission of The Economist

C B M R Y G K W C B M R Y G K W The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Monitor 1

Contents

On the cover The robot that turns against its human masters is a staple of science ction. But as real-life robots become more advanced, this scenario is being taken seriously. Robo-ethicists are now starting to consider how best to design and regulate robots to ensure that they do not harm humans: pages 10-11 On the move at last? Monitor 1 Portable fuel cells get moving, waiting for the space elevator, predicting pop hits, making games cleverer, car engines with brains, human-powered articial intelligence, progress Energy: Fuel cells capable of powering portable electronic devices in wave power, Wi-Fi rabbits, are nally heading towards the marketplace scarless surgery, life hacking RE you a member of the power elite? alone rechargers can simply plug into ex- Rational consumer AYou will nd out at the end of this isting devices. Another challenge for fuel- 9 Not dead after all monthfor that is when Medis Technol- cell-powered devices is that standards for The quiet success of Bluetooth ogies, a small rm based in New York, fuel-rell cartridges have yet to be agreed. plans to distribute hundreds of its new Medis’s recharger, being disposable, Robotics Power Pack portable fuel cells to a select neatly sidesteps this problem. This is a 10 A matter of trust group of business people, politicians and consequence of its low cost, which is in Ensuring robots do no harm opinion formers. Each fuel cell is about turn the result of its unusual design. Most the size of a cigarette packet, weighs 150 fuel cells being developed for portable Computing grams, and generates electricity by com- use are based on direct-methanol tech- 12 How to build a Babel sh bining oxygen from the air with an inter- nology, which requires an expensive Progress in translation software nal fuel. It can be plugged into a platinum catalyst. Medis’s fuel cell, how- hand-held device (such as a mobile ever, is based on sodium borohydride, Case history phone, music player or portable games which is simpler and cheaper. Each 14 PET’s inside story console) to power or recharge it, and has Power Pack can be made for around $5, The history and future of sucient capacity to provide around 30 says Mr Lifton, which is comparable to positron-emission tomography hours of talk-time on a mobile phone, or the cost of the platinum alone in a direct- 60-80 hours of playback time for an iPod methanol fuel cell. (Medis plans to sell its Military technology music-player. Once it has been ex- Power Packs to wholesalers for $8, and 17 Marching into the future hausted, the Power Pack can be thrown the retail price will be $12-15.) Towards the cyborg soldier away. We will have them on sale by the Clever though this is, it is just a step- end of 2006, says Robert Lifton, the boss ping stone towards the direct incorpora- Energy of Medis. At last, it seems, fuel cells capa- tion of fuel cells into portable devices 19 Meet the Prius-hackers ble of powering portable devices are and, in particular, laptopsthe applica- The rise of plug-in hybrids coming to market. tion that remains the industry’s holy Fuel-cell based rechargers are a good grail. It is not simply the case of slotting in Brain scan transition to full commercialisation for a fuel cell in place of the battery. Instead, 22 Present at the creation fuel cells, says Sara Bradford, an analyst it involves switching from a battery to a A prole of Vinton Cerf, one of at Frost & Sullivan. Integrating fuel cells hybrid power source that combines a bat- the internet’s founding fathers directly into electronic devices such as tery with a fuel cell, argues Jim Balcom of mobile phones is complicated, but stand- PolyFuel, a leading maker of components1 2 Monitor The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006

2 for direct-methanol fuel cells based in light to support its own weight. Mountain View, California. People think It has long been recognised that car- it’s batteries against fuel cellsit’s not, he bon nanotubes, tiny molecular-scale says. It’s about battery augmentation. Waiting for the threads of carbon atoms, would be strong In a laptop, the fuel cell will provide a enough to build such a cable. (Even constant amount of power, topped up by space elevator though nanotubes were discovered only the battery during periods of peak de- in 1991, Dr Clarke suggested something mand. This hybrid power source will pro- very similar in his book: a hyper- vide at least double the running time of Space: After decades of speculation, lament made of pseudo-one-dimen- today’s battery-powered systemswith the idea of a space elevator sional diamond crystal.) But it is not yet the option of using extra fuel cartridges. capable of lifting payloads into orbit possible to produce nanotubes in su- The complexity of such systems, is being taken a bit more seriously cient quantity, or to knit them into a rope along with their high cost, relatively low with anything like the strength of the eciency (most prototypes still produce OR decades science-ction writers tiny, individual tubes. So far, the stron- more heat than electrical power) and the Fand engineers have dreamed of build- gest commercially available bre of the unresolved question of standards for re- ing a lift from the Earth’s surface into required weight is around 4% as strong as ll cartridges, collectively explain why space. Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, a Russian a space elevator would require, says Ben fuel-cell-powered laptops have been per- scientist, suggested a similar idea more Shelef, co-founder of the Spaceward petually two years away for so long, says than a century ago, and in 1979 Arthur C. Foundation, which runs the space-eleva- Ms Bradford. But, she says, I think it Clarke wrote an entire novel, The Foun- tor competition. He notes that if research- really could be two years away this time. tains of Paradise, about the construction ers can increase the strength of that bre Laptops powered by direct-methanol fuel of a space elevator. Whisking satellites, by 50% a year, they will produce a bre cells are getting close to market, she says; space probes and even people into orbit strong enough by 2013. Such speedy pro- every year the prototypes get smaller and on a giant elevator appears far more civi- gress is not unusual in a new eld. more ecient. Demand is clear, and to- lised than expensive, unreliable rockets. The next problem is to work out how day’s lithium-ion battery technology is Now this fanciful dream is taking its to power the lifts, which will take several reaching its theoretical limits. rst tentative steps towards reality. Two days to make the long trip into orbit. Car- Mr Balcom’s rm has licensed its fuel- companies, LiftPort and X-Tech Projects, rying fuel or batteries on board would be cell membrane technology to several have been founded to pursue commer- impractical, as this would add massively large electronics rms, including NEC cial space-elevator projects, and Amer- to the weight of the lift, and reduce its car- and Sanyo, the world’s biggest maker of ica’s space agency, NASA, has provided a rying capacity. So both LiftPort and X- rechargeable batteries. PolyFuel’s ship- $400,000 prize-fund for an annual com- Tech are designing climbing modules ments of membranes are ramping up petition, the Space Elevator Challenge, to equipped with solar panels that receive steadily, and the company’s customers encourage space-elevator research. At this power from a laser beamed from the are preparing for commercial launch of year’s contest, to be held in October, 21 ground. The technology to make this pos- fuel-cell-based portable devices in teams will test their designs for cables, sible is still under development, but com- 2007-08, he says. They anticipate that and robotic lifts to climb up them. pared with the challenges posed by the 30% of laptops will incorporate fuel cells, The concept of a space elevator is sim- cable, it’s straightforward, says Mr Shelef. though we would be happy with 10% ple enough. An orbiting satellite is linked Then there is the danger of orbiting says Mr Balcom. (Around 65m laptops to the surface of the Earth by a cable, space debris left over from decades of were sold in 2005.) which vehicles then climb up and down. launches, which could damage or de- Business travellers are expected to be However, to reach a satellite in geosta- stroy the cable. Mr Shelef proposes using the keenest adopters of the new technol- tionary orbitwhich takes exactly a day radar to detect chunks of debris before a ogy. But will they be allowed to use fuel to circle the Earth, and so seems to hover collision, and then steering the cable cells on planes? Earlier this year the Inter- above a single spot on the equatorthe around them. Fixing the bottom of the ca- national Civil Aviation Organisation, cable would have to be nearly 35,800km ble to an ocean-going platform would which regulates such matters, voted to al- (22,250 miles) long. Such a cable would make it easy to move, he suggests. low the use of direct-methanol fuel cells have to be phenomenally strong and If these problems can be overcome, that meet certain criteria from January building a space elevator is expected to 2007a giant step, says Ms Bradford. cost around $10 billiona modest sum by But so far the rules do not allow the use of the standards of space exploration. Lift- borohydride fuel cells, such as the Medis Port estimates that satellites could be design. Mr Lifton insists that there is no launched at around one thousandth of regulation that prevents the use of his the cost of using rockets. But NASA is company’s device on aircraft, however, sceptical, despite supporting the space- since it is no more ammable or toxic elevator competition. Since the basic than a T-shirt or a newspaper. If regula- material has yet to be developed, it is still tors disagree, he says, I’ll sue them. in the research phase and is not a current In short, portable fuel cells must still programme at NASA, says a spokesman. overcome both technical and regulatory In February LiftPort conducted one of hurdles, but progress is being made on the most elaborate space-elevator tests so both fronts. Ms Bradford expects sales of far. Hot-air balloons secured a cable in 3m devices next year, and 80m in 2012. place for six hours, and robots then Most people will use a fuel cell in a por- climbed up and down it. The cable table device long before they encounter reached only a mile into the sky, it is true. one in a car, Mr Balcom predicts. And for But engineers have, in eect, pressed the the recipients of Medis’s fuel cell, which call buttonthough as so often when provides a glimpse of this future, that waiting for a lift, there is now likely to be could be as soon as this month. 7 Going up, slowly? a long wait until it arrives. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Monitor 3

in-house, rather than selling software.) they asked things like, ‘Are you joking?’ The resultsconsisting of a graph, nu- The service is relatively inexpensive: a merical scores, computer-generated com- year’s subscription for unlimited ana- Sounds good? ments and suggested changeshelp lyses typically costs a large record com- Orixa’s managers decide which songs to pany around $100,000. And the service produce. Then, during the recording and reduces the need for expensive call-out post-production phases, Orixa uses HSS research, in which labels call consumers, to reanalyse successive versions of each play part of a song over the telephone, Software: Music intelligence track for ne-tuning. and compile their reactions. systems that can distinguish hits Belief in music intelligence is spread- It is not just record companies that are from misses could change the way ing, as Polyphonic HMI and Platinum interested in music intelligence, however. pop music is made and marketed Blue rack up bull’s-eye predictions of suc- The market is expanding as radio playlist- cess, including Candy Shop by 50 Cent, programmers adopt the technology, of- HE versicator, a machine described Be the Girl by Aslyn, Unwritten by ten to put mathematically similar songs Tin George Orwell’s novel 1984, auto- Natasha Bedingeld, She Says by Ho- together to create a better ow. Mobile matically generated music for the hapless wie Day, and You’re Beautiful by James operators such as Vodafone and Orange masses. The idea of removing humans Blunt. Still, labels that use music intelli- use the technology to develop mobile from the creative process of making mu- gence generally prefer to keep quiet about ringtones. Disney’s Hollywood Records sic, an art form so able to stir the soul, it, so non-disclosure agreements are com- uses music intelligence to design sound- made for a good joke when the book was mon. No one wants people to think their tracks. Mr McCready of Platinum Blue published in 1949. But today, computer decisions are coming from a box, says says television advertising agencies have programmers working in a new eld Ric Wake, an American producer of two expressed interest in using it to select jin- called music intelligence are develop- gles, which, while structurally similar to ing software capable of predicting which those in a successful previous campaign, songs will become hits. This surprisingly sound fresh to consumers. accurate technology could profoundly Lawyers are also interested in using change the way pop music is created. the technology. Hillel Parness, a specialist The software uses a process called in music copyright-violation at Brown spectral deconvolution to isolate and Raysman, a law rm in New York, con- analyse around 30 parameters that dene tacted Platinum Blue to discuss the legal a piece of music, including such things as applications of the software. He would sonic brilliance, octave, cadence, fre- like to use the software in plagiarism suits quency range, fullness of sound, chord as an objective way to alert judges, who progression, timbre and bend (varia- often have little background in music, to tions in pitch at the beginning and end of suspicious similarities between two the same note). Songs conform to a lim- pieces of music. Music-intelligence soft- ited number of mathematical equa- ware could also rustle up additional (and tions, says Mike McCready of Platinum lucrative) copyright suits. Using a func- Blue, a music-intelligence company tion known as melody detection, re- based in New York, that he founded last cord labels will soon be able to use the December. Platinum Blue has compiled a software to nd songs that may have pla- database of more than 3m successful mu- giarised songs in the label’s catalogue. sical arrangements, including data on their popularity in dierent markets. Unchained melodies To the human ear, music has changed Is there not a danger, however, that giv- a lot over the years. Music-intelligence ing software a say in music selection will software, however, can reveal striking promote uniformity and hamper creativ- similarities in the underlying parameters ity? The opposite is more likely. High mu- of two songs from dierent eras that, Grammy-winning acts who routinely sic-intelligence scores can help convince even to a trained ear, seem unrelated. Ac- employs Music Science. Even so, the notoriously risk-averse and it’s-who- cording to Platinum Blue’s software, names of many customers have leaked you-know record labels to take a chance called Music Science, for example, a num- out. They include Capitol Records, Uni- on new talent. Take the case of Frederic ber of hit songs by U2 have a close kin- versal Music Group, Sony Music, EMI and Monneron, a publisher of equestrian ship to some of Beethoven’ s com- Casablanca Records. Labels sometimes books in Mesnil-Simon, a village of 150 positions. If a song written today has don’t tell even their established artists people in Lower Normandy, France. After parameters similar to those of a number when they use music intelligence to help a setback in his love life, the 43-year-old of past hits, it could well be a hit too. decide which singles to promote. self-taught guitarist and pianist set up a Carlos Quintero, a producer and re- Revenues at Polyphonic HMI will ex- makeshift home studio, where he wrote mixer at Orixa Producciones in Madrid, ceed $1m this year, twice last year’s take. and recorded 12 syrupy, and somewhat recently tried out another music-intelli- In March the company began serving In- improbable, romantic-political ballads. gence system, called Hit Song Science dia’s music industry, after compiling a For fun, he paid Polyphonic HMI to ana- (HSS). It practically left me in shock, it’s database of that country’s pop music. lyse his songs. The results indicated that stunning, he says. Mr Quintero’s produc- Platinum Blue refuses to release gures. the tunes had what it takes. In September tion company now has the most promis- But one of its managers, Tracie Reed a French label will begin distributing ing demo songs it receives from aspiring (who, like several people at Platinum 200,000 copies of Monneron’s CD, musicians evaluated by Polyphonic HMI, Blue, used to work at Polyphonic HMI), Fred’s Pentagone, in Europe and North the Barcelona-based developer of HSS says customers now come knockinga America. Two music videos and a tour and Platinum Blue’s only serious compet- reversal of the state of aairs not long will follow. What happened is a fairy itor. (Both companies perform analyses ago, when people’s eyes glazed over and tale, says Mr Monneron. 7 4 Monitor The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006

spheres. Games have been very impor- at the Institute for Creative Technologies tant to AI through the years, he notes. at the University of Southern California. Alan Turing, one of the pioneers of com- It’s an example of where I hope to see When looks are puting in the 1940s, wrote a simple chess- computer games go in ve years, says Dr playing program before there were any Laird. The game is set in the apartment of no longer enough computers to run it on; he also proposed Grace and Trip, a couple whose marriage the Turing test, a question-and-answer is in trouble; by conversing with them in game that is a yardstick for machine intel- plain English, the player can inuence Gaming: As graphics improve, ligence. Even so, AI research and video them and help to determine whether articial intelligence is becoming games existed in separate worlds until re- they stay together. Façade is not so an ever more important part of cently. The AI techniques used in games much a game as an interactive drama. designing video games were very simplistic from an academic We wanted to build a game built around perspective, says Dr Mateas, while AI re- richly expressive characters, says Dr OOD looks, the video-games searchers were, in turn, clueless about Mateas. We were interested in taking Gindustry is discovering, will get you modern games. But, he says, both sides games into content areas that they only so far. The graphics on a modern are learning, and are now much closer. haven’t really explored beforewe game may far outstrip the pixellated Consider, for example, the software would like to create a new genre. blobs of the 1980s, but there is more to a that controls an enemy in a rst-person Tellingly, Doug Church of Electronic good game than eye candy. Photo-realis- shooter (FPS)a game in which the player Arts, who gave the keynote speech at last tic graphics make the lack of authenticity views the world along the barrel of a gun. year’s AIIDE conference, recently started of other aspects of gameplay more appar- The behaviour of enemies used to be pre- work on a game with Steven Spielberg ent. It is not enough for game characters scripted: wait until the player is nearby, where the focus is on building an emo- to look bettertheir behaviour must also pop up from behind a box, re weapon, tive relationship at a story level and a ga- be more sophisticated, say researchers and then roll and hide behind another meplay level between the player and working at the interface between gaming box, for example. But some games now another character, says Mr Young. Re- and articial intelligence (AI). use far more advanced planning sys- searchers and games developers are, it Today’s games may look better, but tems imported from academia. Instead seems, converging on the same territory. the gameplay is basically the same as it of scripts and hand-coded behaviour, the Industry people are being exposed to was a few years ago, says Michael AI monsters in an FPS can reason from more complex techniques, and academ- Mateas, the founder of the Experimental rst principles, says Dr Mateas. They ics are learning that game AI is a unique, Game Lab at the Georgia Institute of can, for example, work out whether the new and interesting problem, says Dr Technology. AI, he suggests, oers an player can see them or not, seek out cover Mateas. Games are an amazing place to untapped frontier of new possibilities. when injured, and so on. Rather than do fundamental AI research. 7 We are topping out on the graphics, so just moving between predened spots, what’s going to be the next thing that im- the characters in a war game can dynami- proves gameplay? asks John Laird, direc- cally shift, depending on what’s happen- tor of the AI lab at the University of ing, says Fiona Perry of Electronic Arts. Michigan. Improved AI is a big part of the If the industry is borrowing ideas answer, he says. Those in the industry from academia, the opposite is also true. Brainpower agree. The high-denition graphics possi- Commercial games such as Unreal Tour- ble on next-generation games consoles, nament, which can be easily modied under the bonnet such as Microsoft’s Xbox 360, are raising or scripted, are being adopted as research expectations across the board, says Neil tools in universities, says Dr Laird. Such Young of Electronic Arts, the world’s big- tools provide exible environments for Transport: Carmakers are putting gest games publisher. You have to have experiments, and also mean that stu- articial neural networks into high-resolution models, which requires dents end up with transferable skills. engines to increase fuel-eciency high-resolution animation, he says, so But the greatest potential lies in com- and reduce pollution now I expect high-resolution behaviour. bining research with game development, Representatives from industry and argues Dr Mateas. Only by wrestling HE V12 engine found in the Aston academia will converge in Marina del with real content are the technical TMartin DB9 is notable not just for its Rey, California, later this month for the problems revealed, and only by wrestling brawnit produces 450 horsepowerbut second annual Articial Intelligence and with technology does it give you insight also for its brain. It detects cylinder mis- Interactive Digital Entertainment (AIIDE) into what new kinds of content are res using an articial neural network, a conference. The aim, says Dr Laird, who possible, he says. system modelled on the interconnected will chair the event, is to increase the traf- Hence Façade, a game created by Dr neurons of a simple brain. This year Ford, c of people and ideas between the two Mateas with Andrew Stern, a researcher which owns the Aston Martin brand, in- troduced the same technology into a sec- ond vehicle, the Econoline van, and plans to include it in all Aston Martin cars in fu- ture. Other carmakers are following suit: DaimlerChrysler is interested in using neural networks to handle the complex- ities of variable valve timing in order to make next-generation engines more fuel- ecient. General Motors has been work- ing with Axeon, a British rm that makes neural-network chips, to improve engine performance. And Audi is also rumoured to be working with Axeon. 1 The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Monitor 5

2 The neural networks in question are timise the torque, fuel consumption and either dedicated silicon chips (such as emissions at dierent speeds. those made by Axeon) with neurons But this depends on being able to modelled in hardware, or software mod- solve a nasty mathematical problem that els of neurons implemented on standard relates the spark-timing, the ratio of fuel microprocessor chips. Both approaches to air, and the timing of the opening and allow carmakers to do things that would closing of the valves. When Daimler- be far more complicated and expensive Chrysler investigated the VVT control using conventional hardware and soft- problem in conjunction with researchers ware. Neural networks, like brains, are at the University of Michigan, neural net- particularly good at analysing data and works turned out to be the best solution. recognising patterns that are dicult to Neural networks proved to be the tech- dene precisely. They are trained using nology that worked the best, the quickest, thousands of examples, and a learning covered the entire operating regime, and algorithm that alters the strength of the was most cost eective, says Denise connections in the network so that it Kramer, a product-development engi- gives the appropriate output value neer at DaimlerChrysler’s technical cen- (whether or not a misre has occurred) tre at Auburn Hills, Michigan. The Now playing at Amazon.com depending on the input values (engine company has now veried that the tech- speed, acceleration, cylinder position, nology is feasible for large-scale produc- able to do this thanks to a new software and so forth). Fortunately, engine control tion by showing that the neural-network tool developed by Amazon, the online re- and monitoring applications require control algorithm can run on a car’s cen- tailer, that allows computing tasks to be fewer than 100 neurons, not the tens of tral computer, and can be calibrated to farmed out to people over the internet. billions in a human brain. run across all its engines. With better fuel- Aptly enough, Amazon’s system is called A neural network is a machine in eciency and fewer emissions, a smarter Mechanical Turk. which you shovel in what you know and car is a greener car. 7 Amazon’s Turk is part toolkit for soft- train it to tell you what you want, says ware developers, and part online bazaar: Lee Feldkamp, Ford’s senior technical anyone with internet access can register specialist on neural networks. Over the as a Turk user and start performing the past 17 years he and his team have dem- Human Intelligence Tasks (HITs) listed on onstrated how to use neural networks to the Turk website (mturk.com). Compa- control engine idle speed, detect misres Articial articial nies can become requesters by setting and minimise fuel consumption. Ford - up a separate account, tied to a bank ac- nally took the technology out of the lab- intelligence count that will pay out fees, and then oratory when it became clear that it was posting their HITs. Most HITs pay be- the cheapest and most reliable way to tween one cent and $5. So far, people meet new pollution laws. These specify Software: For many tasks, humans from more than 100 countries have per- that cars’ onboard diagnostics must not outperform computers. So why not formed HITs, though only those with only monitor misres, but must also de- farm out computing tasks to people, American bank accounts can receive tect whether the misres occurred in a not machines? money for their work; others are paid in single cylinder or more than one. Amazon gift certicates. A misre is usually sensed by a small F YOU are a tourist interested in seeing a Mr Heitler says he had previously dip in acceleration, but with large engines Ibaseball game while in New York, you tried to build a similar tool, but con- such as the Econoline’s V10 or the DB9’s can nd out which of its teams are in cluded that the infrastructure would be V12, it is dicult to discriminate between town simply by sending a message to dicult to operate protably. Amazon al- a re and a misre amid the noise of vi- AskForCents.com. In a few minutes, the ready has an extensive software infra- bration. At the DB9’s top speed of 7,500 answer comes back, apparently supplied structure designed for linking buyers revolutions per minute there are just 1.33 by a machine, but actually composed by with sellers, however, and the Turk sim- milliseconds to determine the answer. a human. Using humans to process in- ply extends that existing model. Last We realised that the noise had a re- formation in a machine-like way is not November Amazon unveiled a prototype producible pattern and, although compli- new: it was pioneered by the Mechanical of the system, which it calls articial ar- cated, it’s the sort of thing that a neural Turk, a famed 18th-century chess-playing ticial intelligence. The premise is that network can learn. So the neural network machine that was operated by a hidden humans are vastly superior to computers digs into this very noisy collection of data chessmaster. But while computers have at tasks such as pattern recognition, says and pulls out the pieces that have the real since surpassed the human brain at Peter Cohen, director of the project at information, says Mr Feldkamp. The chess, many tasks still bae even the Amazon, so why not let software take ad- neural network runs as a piece of soft- most powerful electronic brain. vantage of human strengths? ware on a low-cost microprocessor. For instance, computers can nd you a Mr Cohen credits Amazon’s boss, Je Neural misre detection is just for baseball schedule, but they cannot tell Bezos, with the concept for the Turk. large engines, and is unlikely to feature in you directly if the Yankees are in town. Other people have had similar ideas. Eric a typical family car. But neural networks Nor can they tell you whether sitting in Bonabeau of Icosystem, an American could nd wider application as a means the bleachers is a good idea on a rst date. rm that builds software tools modelled of controlling variable valve timing AskForCents can, because its answers on natural systems, has built what he (VVT). As its name suggests, this involves come from people. Whatever question calls the Hunch Engine to combine hu- changing the timing regime that governs you can come up with, there’s a person man intelligence with computer analysis. the opening and closing of the valves that can provide the answeryou don’t The French postal service, for example, responsible for the ow of air, fuel and have the inexibility of an algorithm-dri- has used it to help its workers choose the exhaust in and out of the cylinders. Ad- ven system, says Jesse Heitler, who de- best delivery routes, and pharmaceutical justing the timing makes it possible to op- veloped AskForCents. Mr Heitler was researchers are using it to determine mo- 1 6 Monitor The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006

2 lecular structures by combining their gut submitted a superbly thought-out 20- University of Edinburgh devised a device instincts with known results stored in a step process made up in Visio, a software that converted the motion of waves into database. And a rm called Seriosity tool for making schematics. For this, electricity. The potential is vast: a report hopes to tap the collective brainpower of iConclude paid $5. If we’d hired a published earlier this year by the Carbon the legions of obsessive players of mul- consultant, we would have paid $1,000- Trust, an organisation set up by the British tiplayer online games such as World of 2,000, says Helen Tang of iConclude. I government to help meet its targets for re- Warcraft, by getting them to perform was abbergasted. ducing greenhouse-gas emissions, con- small real-world tasks (such as sorting It all sounds promising. But the market cluded that 20% of Britain’s electricity photographs) while playing, and paying may have cooled to the Turk, at least for could be provided by wave and tidal them in the game’s own currency. the moment. While Amazon says it has power. This is four times more than pre- Alpheus Bingham, head of InnoCen- executed tens of millions of HITs, there vious estimates, and means that marine tive, an online matchmaking service for were only 13 active HITs on a recent day, energy alone could enable Britain to scientists and challenging problems, is and some requests go unanswered. Al- reach its emissions-reduction targets. In impressed by both Icosystem and Serios- though it sounds impressive, it may be America, meanwhile, the Department of ity because, he says, there’s quite a bit of that like its 18th-century namesake, there Energy’s National Renewable Energy substance in thisthere are some things is less to the modern-day Mechanical Laboratory has estimated that the use of in areas of pattern recognition that hu- Turk than meets the eye. 7 wave power on the east coast could pro- mans are just wired for, and they get it in- vide 10-25 times more electricity than the stantly. The challenge is nding the total wind potential of the Great Plains. people, and then connecting them up us- Given this potential, why is it that so ing existing computer networks. far, not a single commercial wave-power Though the Turk ocially remains a Making waves generator is in operation? The biggest prototype, scores of companies have problem with wave-power generators is used it. Amazon itself uses the Turk for that they are relatively expensive, says tasks such as labelling pictures on its A9 Keith Melton of the New and Renewable search engine, or brand preferences. Ask- Energy Centre in Blyth, England. Most ForCents exists because of the Turk, as produce electricity at a cost of between does CastingWords, a service that tran- Energy: Converting the motion of the 10-20 pence (18-36 cents) per kilowatt scribes spoken audio les using people sea into electricity requires a hour (kWh), whereas electricity pro- who have computer access and some trade-o between eciency and duced from natural gas costs around 4p/ W time to killhousewives, night-shift secu- resilienceor does it? k h. One reason for the expense of rity guards and so on. It’s a labour-inten- wave power is the need to make the sive businesswe could not do this HE prospects for wave power have equipment impervious to storm damage without the Turk, says Nathan McFar- Trisen and fallen, appropriately and corrosion. Of the countless wave- land, the founder of CastingWords. enough, for years. But now the technol- power concepts invented over the years, He says his rm has transcribed thou- ogy nally seems to be making headway. most have been heavily over-engineered sands of podcasts in just a few months, Not only is the world’s rst commercial to reduce the chances of breakdown at and he has left his previous job to concen- wave farm due to be switched on and sea. This reduces their eciency, increas- trate on his new business. Mr McFarland connected to the electricity grid in Portu- ing the cost per kWh and preventing notes that some people try to game the gal this summerbut an even newer type wave power from making progress. Turk, by using software scripts to down- of wave-power generator could drasti- But now things seem to be changing. load a translation assignment, pass it cally reduce the cost of extracting energy Near Póvoa de Varzim, o the northern through an online translation service from the sea. coast of Portugal, three 150-metre-long such as AltaVista’s Babel Fish, and then Wave power rst attracted interest in articulated snake-like pontoons, called oer it up as nished work. That’s an easy the 1970s, when Stephen Salter of the Pelamis Wave Energy Converters, are in 1 one to catch, he says, but for other types of services such spoofswhere people try to use real articial intelligence in place of the more accurate, articial kindmight be less obvious. How much should humans expect to be paid for renting out their brains in this way? Business users of the Turk say they are unsure what they should pay for the simple answers they want, but they typi- cally oer just a few cents. Even online, however, no one likes to pick up a penny. Mr Heitler says requests at that low rate generally go unanswered, though two cents a query seems to spark interest. But even complicated tasks rate only a few dollars. iConclude, a software start-up aiming to automate corporate technical support, is using the Turk to evaluate developers who can help write its repair tools. It used the Turk to source a list of recommended xes for common problems in IIS, Microsoft’s widely used web-server software. One respondent On the crest of a wave? The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Monitor 7

have been pioneering the new technique, dozens of patients have already under- The cult of the wireless rabbit gone such procedures in order to avoid being left with even the smallest of scars. Nabaztag, a Wi-Fi-enabled rabbit able to We think this is going to replace open talk, sing, light up in dierent colours and surgery, says Dmitry Oleynikov, a sur- wiggle its ears, is the latest entry in the geon at the University of Nebraska Medi- new eld of smart objects. The idea is cal Centre in Omaha. But there are still that chic household items present many hurdles to overcome, he says. information unobtrusively and in ways In particular, manipulating the lapa- that can be taken in at a glance. roscopic (or keyhole surgery) tools in Nabaztag can, among other things, such conned conditions is very tricky, wiggle its ears to indicate the arrival of says Dr Oleynikov. So, working with an e-mail from a particular address, Shane Farritor at the University of light up according to the weather Nebraska, Lincoln, he has developed tiny, forecast or stockmarket activity, and remote-controlled robots that can be in- read out news headlines or messages. serted into the abdominal cavity through Made by Violet, a smart-objects rm the stomach and can then move around in Paris, Nabaztag was rst under radio control to assist the surgeon. launched last year in France, Each of Dr Oleynikov’s robots, 15mm in Switzerland and Belgium, but is diameter and 85mm long, acts as a roving now available worldwide. camera. Shaped like a cylinder, it consists of two rod-like aluminium wheels at opposite ends of a thick axle in which a camera and biopsy needle are mounted. After extensive testing of dierent de- 2 the nal stages of being hooked up to the signs, Dr Oleynikov’s team found that a country’s national grid, says Andrew corkscrew tread pattern on the wheels Scott of Ocean Power Delivery, the rm proved most eective for moving the ro- behind them. Each one has three power- Invisible bot around without causing damage to converter modules distributed along its surrounding tissue. length, which transform the exing mo- mending These robots are small enough to pass tion at the snake’s joints into electricity as down the throat and into the abdominal the snakes are bueted by the waves. The cavity through a standard laparoscopic three snakes are the rst stage of a Medicine: Inserting surgical tools via incision. The surgeon controls the robots planned 24-megawatt wave-power farm, a patient’s mouth is technically using a joystick and monitor, and carries which will be capable of providing challenging, but means unsightly out the operation using laparoscopic in- 15,000 households with power. The Pela- scars can be avoided struments. Dr Oleynikov has already mis’s design avoids the trade-o between used the robots in place of endoscopes in resilience and eciency by switching to a F THE current popularity of cosmetic standard laparoscopic procedures, insert- higher-eciency mode in calm seas. Isurgery is anything to go by, people are ing as many as three through the same in- But the new device, called the Snap- keener than ever to reshape body parts cision to give the surgeon several views per, increases eciency still further. Elec- and remove blemishesand plastic sur- of the operation. And in some transgas- trical generators tend to work most geons are only too happy to oblige. But tric experiments on pigs, he has used the eciently when a small force is applied now the desire for bodily perfection has robots to view the gall-bladder and take at high speedwhich is just the opposite extended into the realm of non-cosmetic liver biopsies. of what wave power provides, says Ed surgery, too. A new way of performing Biopsies can of course be taken Spooner, a consultant engineer based abdominal surgery makes it possible to through the skin, but there is a huge ad- near Durham, in England, who invented carry out operations within the body vantage to taking tissue samples from in- the Snapper. His invention works much without leaving any visible scars. In such side, since you can see the organ and like a typical linear generator, in which a transgastric or natural orice surgery, choose which part of the tissue to sam- magnet is moved up and down inside abdominal procedures that would nor- ple, says Dr Swain. And the mobility of coils of wire, inducing electrical currents mally involve cuts in the skin are instead the robots provides views of things that in the process. But there is a crucial dier- carried out via the patient’s mouth. would otherwise be very dicult to see, ence: alongside the coils are a second set The surgeon inserts exible laparo- such as the far side of the liver, he adds. of magnets of alternating polarity. These scopic tools through the mouth and into In the past, Dr Swain has helped to de- prevent the central magnet from moving the patient’s stomach, and then cuts a velop wireless camera capsules, which up and down smoothly. Instead, mag- hole to get into the abdominal cavity are now commonly used for gastrointes- netic forces repeatedly halt its motion, so from within. From here, the surgeon can tinal diagnostics. (He was the rst human that it moves up and down in a jerky perform anything from liver biopsies to volunteer to swallow one, in 1999.) Such fashion. The resulting series of short, prostate or gall-bladder removals. He tools are vital for the progress of transgas- rapid movements is more suitable for draws the removed tissue back out tric surgery, he says, but take time to de- generating electricity than a slow, through the mouth, and carefully stitches velop. And even when they are available, smooth movement. Early tests suggest up the incision in the stomach tissue. the eld still has to prove its worth. At the that it could be as much as ten times more It may sound complicated or even moment it is probably still riskier than ecient than existing wave generators. gruesome, but this approach could trans- traditional laparoscopy, says Dr Swain, Having spent years oundering in the form the eld of surgery, says Paul Swain, whose team is the only one to have car- water, could wave power nally be ready an expert in the eld at Imperial College ried out a transgastric gall-bladder re- to make a splash? 7 London. In India, where two surgeons moval, albeit in a pig. Indeed, some 1 8 Monitor The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006

2 surgeons have raised concerns about the O’Brien’s hypothesis was that these possible risks associated with exposing geeks had hit upon a set of strategies for the abdomen to stomach bacteria. working eciently in a self-man- Dr Oleynikov is condent that such aged, innitely diverting world. I fears will prove unjustied. Studies saw the people around me em- show that with proper bowel prepara- ploying all these tricks, he re- tion and antibiotics, this risk is very, very calls. But they kept their tricks low, he says. Transgastric surgery could, to themselves. Some life hack- in fact, prove to be superior to conven- ers get self-conscious about tional surgery in several respects, he sug- talking about it too much. gests, even though the advantage at this Mr O’Brien’s presentation point is aesthetics. Gastric incisions heal resonated with many tech- more quickly than those of the abdomi- nologists, including Merlin nal wall; anecdotal evidence suggests Mann, who started a weblog that transgastric surgery is less painful; in September 2004 called 43 and because it requires sedation rather Folders that synthesised than a general anaesthetic, it can be car- life hacking’s high-tech ried out on a greater range of patients perspective with that of with fewer side eects. Ultimately, says Getting Things Done, a Dr Swain, no matter how bizarre this bestselling productivity type of surgery might seem to us now, pa- book by David Allen. tients will always opt for an approach Getting Things Done that leaves no scar and hurts less. 7 advocates breaking down all projects into single steps that can be accom- plished in a few minutes and keep- ing track of these steps on cate- Reprogram gorised listsproductivity software for the mind, in short. Although this kind of vate ourselves, says Mr Mann. It hardly your life regimented approach is of particular ap- inspires condence in their philosophy. peal to geeks, it could have wider applica- But life hacking, Mr O’Brien gamely in- tion among information workers in sists, is about more than productivity. general. Geeks are the canaries in the Life hacks aren’t tied to business Technology and society: Life coal mine, says Mr Mann. We were the ideas of eciency, he says. People hacking applies a programmer’s rst to be overwhelmed by e-mail. The spend all this time making themselves ef- mentality to streamlining daily tools used by geeks today often end up cient and they start to wonder what e- routines and getting things done being more widely adopted tomorrow. ciency is for. They rell their lives with Life hacking does not rely on the use things that aren’t boring workaday activi- HE most important contribution of of technology for the sake of it, however. tiesmeditation, yoga, ways to calm Tmanagement in the 20th century Indeed, perhaps Mr Mann’s greatest down. Mindfulness is another common was the 50-fold increase in the productiv- claim to fame is the ironically named aspiration of life hackers, whose hyperac- ity of the manual worker in manufactur- Hipster PDAa stack of index cards tivity is a double-edged sword, providing ing, wrote the management guru Peter held together by a bulldog clip that is, he a boon in a multi-tasking work-environ- Drucker. The most important contribu- contends, superior to an electronic per- ment, but leaving its most skilled practi- tion management needs to make in the sonal organiser. Mr Mann’s presentation tioners feeling empty and frayed, tugged 21st century is similarly to increase the of the idea resembles a comedy routine, in all directions at once. productivity of the knowledge worker. but his point is a serious one: there is not Productivity books can be friendly, But how? While manual workers toil- much ddling, conguration and custo- but at root they’re didactichow to an- ing on assembly lines can be reorganised misation to be done with a stack of index swer more e-mail to make more sales, in a top-down way to improve eciency, cards, so users must instead get on with says Mr Mann. They don’t talk about information workers are more self-di- doing something useful. 43 Foldersand how screwed up we are today, trying to rected, and must nd ecient routines to similar sites, such as lifehacker.com keep up with 21st-century life using 60- process a constant ow of information abound with similar suggestions of ways year-old tools. Ultimately, he says, the on their own. The problem is akin to re- to streamline everyday processes and aim of life hacking is not so much to im- writing a piece of software to make it run avoid being sidetracked (see box). prove productivity as to inspire con- more reliably. And just as programmers There is still room for improvement in dence and avoid feeling overwhelmed. like to exploit tricks or hacks to get re- the eld, however, if the experience of its It seems ironic that geeks, the keenest sults quickly, a new life hacking move- principal proponents is any guide. Mr adopters of technology, must resort to ment is now applying the same approach Mann and Mr O’Brien signed a contract technical tricks to strike a balance be- to reorganising life o the screen too. to produce a book on life hacking for tween playing with their toys and getting Danny O’Brien, an internet activist O’Reilly and Associates, a publisher of useful work done. But the life-hacking and writer, introduced the term in a technical manuals and the rm behind tips they have compiled can help less presentation at the O’Reilly Emerging successful books including Google gadget-obsessed people to become more Technology Conference in 2004. He sent Hacks and Amazon Hacks. But people productive, too. If you use a computer all long questionnaires to dozens of over- who obsess about procrastination are un- day, 43folders.com and lifehacker.com prolic alpha geeks asking them how likely to deliver a book on time, and the are well worth a visit. Just don’t let read- they managed to accomplish so much pair’s book on life hacking was cancelled. ing about life-hacking techniques get in and avoid technological distractions. Mr We tried every trick we knew to moti- the way of doing some useful work. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Rational consumer 9

Bluetooth’s quiet success

many countries Bluetooth’s fortunes motes and directs the development of the were boosted by new legislation banning technology, announced that version 3.0 Consumer electronics: What the use of mobile phones without a of Bluetooth would be based on ultra- does the success of Bluetooth hands-free kit while driving. This wideband radio technology, which al- prompted many people to buy Bluetooth lows for data-transfer rates hundreds of wireless technology reveal headsets. Several carmakers, led by Audi, times faster than is possible today. This about standards battles? also began to incorporate microphones will open up completely new application and speakers, capable of connecting to a areas from 2008, says Alan Woolhouse T WAS born amid a blaze of hype at the handset via Bluetooth, into their vehicles. of Cambridge Silicon Radio, a British Iheight of the dotcom boom, but initially As consumers became more aware of company that is the leading manufacturer failed to thrive. Indeed, Bluetooth, a short- Bluetooth and began to ask for it, handset- of Bluetooth chips. Higher data rates will, range wireless technology used to inter- makers started to include it as a means of for example, make it possible to transfer connect portable devices, has been de- dierentiating their products and increas- music to MP3 players, or beam photo- clared dead on many occasions. Early ing their margins. Adding a Bluetooth graphs or video from digital cameras to versions of the technology suered from chip to a phone now costs very little televisions, without using wires. compatibility problems; an ambitious de- around $2, says Mr Carlaw, down from monstration of the technology at a trade $20 in 2001but allows the manufacturer Horses for courses show in 2001 failed to work. And while to increase the price of the handset by far All of which provides a valuable lesson Bluetooth struggled despite all the hype more, and opens up a new market for about the nature of standards wars. Too from its backers, another wireless tech- high-margin accessories. Finally, oper- often such ghts are portrayed as win- nology, Wi-Fi, took o on its own. Obitu- ators began oering Bluetooth headsets ner-take-all contests in which only one aries of Bluetooth have appeared many (typically end-of-line products that cost victor can emerge. This makes for more times in the technology press, usually very little) as incentives to new custom- exciting headlines, but very few stan- attributing its demise to the success of Wi- ers. Again, the perceived value of the dards battles (the ght over high-deni- Fi. Bluetooth is in full retreat, declared headset is far higher than its cost to the op- tion video-disc formats springs to mind) Sean Maloney, an Intel executive, in 2001. erator, so this increases margins. are actually like this. Supposedly rival Bluetooth is dead, said Craig Mathias, Greater adoption has, in turn, cleared technologies often end up coexisting and an analyst at the Farpoint Group, in 2003. the way for the inclusion of Bluetooth in serving dierent needs, as happened Other analysts issued similar verdicts. all kinds of new products. In addition to with Wi-Fi and Bluetooth. I don’t think But reports of the death of Bluetooth Bluetooth-enabled jackets, motorcycle they were ever really on the same battle- proved to be premature: today it is in rude helmets and sunglasses with built-in eld, declares Mr Carlaw. We see them health. Sales of Bluetooth devices more wireless headsets, the controllers for two as complementarythey do dierent than doubled in 2005 to reach 320m units, next-generation video-games consoles things, says Mr Woolhouse. It’s horses and the gure is expected to exceed 520m due to be launched later this year, Sony’s for courses. this yearequivalent to more than 10m PlayStation 3 and Nintendo’s Wii, will use Although declarations of the death of units a week and far outstripping sales of Bluetooth. Because Bluetooth is an indus- Bluetooth have now subsided, there is no Wi-Fi chips, for those who insist on the try standard, both console-makers can shortage of predictions that other tech- comparison. Around one in four mobile buy chips and software o the shelf, nologies are doomed. Wi-Fi and WiMax, phones sold now support Bluetooth. which is quicker and cheaper than de- some people believe, fatally undermine And after years of insisting that Blue- veloping their own proprietary technol- the case for third-generation (3G) mobile tooth was more than just a way to link a ogies, says Mr Carlaw. networks; ever-more-elaborate smart- wireless headset to a mobile phone, its Other new applications include stereo phones are, it is frequently predicted, backers seem to have been vindicated, as wireless headphones for use with MP3 turning into iPod killers or BlackBerry other uses for Bluetooth have at last be- playersApple is rumoured to be work- killers; and the proponents of software- gun to emerge. Last year 60% of Bluetooth ing on a Bluetooth iPodand connecting as-a-service, delivered via the web as a chips went into mobile handsets and 15% MP3 players to in-car stereo systems via subscription service, say it will wipe out into wireless headsets, says Scott Smyser Bluetooth. Bluecasting, the beaming of traditional software. But the lesson of of iSuppli, a market-research rm, but the information to handsets from Bluetooth- Bluetooth’s quiet success is that such pre- other 25% went into other devices, from enabled posters, once a science-ction dictions should be taken with a grain of laptop computers, keyboards and mice to scenario, has also become feasible, now salt. In each case, coexistence is more Bluetooth-enabled clothing. that a large proportion of consumers have likely than an outright victory for any sin- This success, after its rocky start, is due Bluetooth-capable phones. gle approach. Remember that next time to a combination of factors, says Stuart In March the Bluetooth Special Interest someone declares one new technology to Carlaw, an analyst at ABI Research. In Group, the not-for-prot body that pro- be dead at the hands of another. 7 10 Robotics The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006

Trust me, I’m a robot

molten aluminium poured over them by but in the next few years they will become robots. Last year there were 77 robot-re- increasingly relevant, says Dr Christen- Robot safety: As robots move lated accidents in Britain alone, according sen. According to the United Nations into homes and oces, to the Health and Safety Executive. Economic Commission for Europe’s With robots now poised to emerge World Robotics Survey, in 2002 the num- ensuring that they do not injure from their industrial cages and to move ber of domestic and service robots more people will be vital. But how? into homes and workplaces, roboticists than tripled, nearly outstripping their in- are concerned about the safety implica- dustrial counterparts. By the end of 2003 N 1981 Kenji Urada, a 37-year-old tions beyond the factory oor. To address there were more than 600,000 robot vac- IJapanese factory worker, climbed over a these concerns, leading robot experts uum cleaners and lawn mowersa gure safety fence at a Kawasaki plant to carry have come together to try to nd ways to predicted to rise to more than 4m by the out some maintenance work on a robot. prevent robots from harming people. end of next year. Japanese industrial In his haste, he failed to switch the robot Inspired by the Pugwash Confer- rms are racing to build humanoid robots o properly. Unable to sense him, the encesan international group of scien- to act as domestic helpers for the elderly, robot’s powerful hydraulic arm kept on tists, academics and activists founded in and South Korea has set a goal that 100% working and accidentally pushed the 1957 to campaign for the non-proliferation of households should have domestic ro- engineer into a grinding machine. His of nuclear weaponsthe new group of bots by 2020. In light of all this, it is crucial death made Urada the rst recorded robo-ethicists met earlier this year in that we start to think about safety and eth- victim to die at the hands of a robot. Genoa, Italy, and announced their initial ical guidelines now, says Dr Christensen. This gruesome industrial accident ndings in March at the European Robot- would not have happened in a world in ics Symposium in Palermo, Sicily. Stop right there which robot behaviour was governed by Security, safety and sex are the big So what exactly is being done to protect us the Three Laws of Robotics drawn up by concerns, says Henrik Christensen, from these mechanical menaces? Not Isaac Asimov, a science-ction writer. chairman of the European Robotics Net- enough, says Blay Whitby, an articial- The laws appeared in I, Robot, a book of work at the Swedish Royal Institute of intelligence expert at the University of short stories published in 1950 that in- Technology in Stockholm, and one of the Sussex in England. This is hardly surpris- spired a recent Hollywood lm. But organisers of the new robo-ethics group. ing given that the eld of safety-critical decades later the laws, designed to pre- Should robots that are strong enough or computing is barely a decade old, he vent robots from harming people either heavy enough to crush people be allowed says. But things are changing, and re- through action or inaction (see box on into homes? Is system malfunction a searchers are increasingly taking an inter- next page), remain in the realm of ction. justiable defence for a robotic ghter est in trying to make robots safer. One Indeed, despite the introduction of im- plane that contravenes the Geneva Con- approach, which sounds simple enough, proved safety mechanisms, robots have vention and mistakenly res on innocent is try to program them to avoid contact claimed many more victims since 1981. civilians? And should robotic sex dolls with people altogether. But this is much Over the years people have been crushed, resembling children be legally allowed? harder than it sounds. Getting a robot to hit on the head, welded and even had These questions may seem esoteric navigate across a cluttered room is di-1 The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Robotics 11

The question is whether new, robot-specic

2 cult enough without having to take into safety rules and account what its various limbs or appen- dages might bump into along the way. regulations are Regulating the behaviour of robots is neededand, if going to become more dicult in future, since they will increasingly have self- so, what they learning mechanisms built into them, says Gianmarco Veruggio, a roboticist at should say. the Institute of Intelligent Systems for Automation in Genoa, Italy. As a result, their behaviour will become impossible seemingly watertight rules could produce avoid collisions with humans; to be made to predict fully, he says, since they will not unintended consequences. from soft and light materials to minimise be behaving in predened ways but will In any case, says Dr Inoue, the laws harm if a collision does occur; and to have learn new behaviour as they go. really just encapsulate commonsense an emergency shut-o button. This was Then there is the question of unpre- principles that are already applied to the largely prompted by a big robot exhi- dictable failures. What happens if a ro- design of most modern appliances, both bition held last summer, which made the bot’s motors stop working, or it suers a domestic and industrial. Every toaster, authorities realise that there are safety im- system failure just as it is performing heart lawn mower and mobile phone is de- plications when thousands of people are surgery or handing you a cup of hot cof- signed to minimise the risk of causing in- not just looking at robots, but mingling fee? You can, of course, build in redun- juryyet people still manage to with them, says Dr Inoue. dancy by adding backup systems, says electrocute themselves, lose ngers or fall However, the idea that general-pur- Hirochika Inoue, a veteran roboticist at out of windows in an eort to get a better pose robots, capable of learning, will be- the University of Tokyo who is now an signal. At the very least, robots must meet come widespread is wrong, suggests Mr adviser to the Japan Society for the Pro- the rigorous safety standards that cover Angle. It is more likely, he believes, that motion of Science. But this guarantees existing products. The question is robots will be relatively dumb machines nothing, he says. One hundred per cent whether new, robot-specic rules are designed for particular tasks. Rather than safety is impossible through technology, neededand, if so, what they should say. a humanoid robot maid, it’s going to be a says Dr Inoue. This is because ultimately Making sure robots are safe will be heterogeneous swarm of robots that will no matter how thorough you are, you critical, says Colin Angle of iRobot, take care of the house, he says. cannot anticipate the unpredictable na- which has sold over 2m Roomba house- Probably the area of robotics that is ture of human behaviour, he says. Or to hold-vacuuming robots. But he argues likely to prove most controversial is the put it another way, no matter how sophis- that his rm’s robots are, in fact, much development of robotic sex toys, says Dr ticated your robot is at avoiding people, safer than some popular toys. A radio- Christensen. People are going to be hav- people might not always manage to avoid controlled car controlled by a six-year old ing sex with robots in the next ve years, it, and could end up tripping over it and is far more dangerous than a Roomba, he he says. Initially these robots will be falling down the stairs. says. If you tread on a Roomba, it will not pretty basic, but that is unlikely to put cause you to slip over; instead, a rubber people o, he says. People are willing to Legal problems pad on its base grips the oor and pre- have sex with inatable dolls, so initially So where does this leave Asimov’s Three vents it from moving. Existing regula- anything that moves will be an improve- Laws of Robotics? They were a narrative tions will address much of the challenge, ment. To some this may all seem like device, and were never actually meant to says Mr Angle. I’m not yet convinced that harmless fun, but without any kind of work in the real world, says Dr Whitby. robots are suciently dierent that they regulation it seems only a matter of time Quite apart from the fact that the laws re- deserve special treatment. before someone starts selling robotic sex quire the robot to have some form of hu- Robot safety is likely to surface in the dolls resembling children, says Dr Chris- man-like intelligence, which robots still civil courts as a matter of product liability. tensen. This is dangerous ground. Con- lack, the laws themselves don’t actually When the rst robot carpet-sweeper victed paedophiles might argue that such work very well. Indeed, Asimov repeat- sucks up a baby, who will be to blame? robots could be used as a form of therapy, edly knocked them down in his robot sto- asks John Hallam, a professor at the Uni- while others would object on the grounds ries, showing time and again how these versity of Southern Denmark in Odense. that they would only serve to feed an ex- If a robot is autonomous and capable of tremely dangerous fantasy. learning, can its designer be held All of which raises another question. Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics responsible for all its actions? Today the As well as posing physical danger, might answer to these questions is generally robots also be dangerous to humans in 1. A robot may not injure a human being, or, yes. But as robots grow in complexity it less direct ways, by bringing out their through inaction, allow a human being to come will become a lot less clear cut, he says. worst aspects, from warfare to paedophi- to harm. Right now, no insurance company is lia? As Ron Arkin, a roboticist at the Geor- 2. A robot must obey the orders given to it by prepared to insure robots, says Dr Inoue. gia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law. But that will have to change, he says. Last puts it: If you kick a robotic dog, are you 3. A robot must protect its own existence, as long month, Japan’s ministry of trade and in- then more likely to kick a real one? as such protection does not conflict with the First dustry announced a set of safety guide- Roboticists can do their best to make or Second Law. lines for home and oce robots. They will robots safebut they cannot reprogram be required to have sensors to help them the behaviour of their human masters. 7 12 Computing The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006

How to build a Babel sh

the University of Karlsruhe in Germany approach oers much greater exibility and at CMU. He predicts there will be real- than rule-based systems, since it trans- Translation software: The time automatic dubbing, which will let lates languages based on how they are ac- science-ction dream of a people watch foreign lms or television tually used, rather than relying on rigid machine that understands any programmes in their native languages, grammatical rules which may not always language is getting slowly closer and search engines that will enable users be observed, and often have exceptions. to trawl through multilingual archives of Examples abound of the ridiculous re- T IS arguably the most useful gadget in documents, videos and audio les. And, sults produced by rule-based systems, Ithe space-farer’s toolkit. In The Hitch- eventually, there may even be electronic which are unable to cope in the face of hiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas devices that work like Babel sh, whisper- similes, ambiguities or bad grammar. In Adams depicted it as a small, yellow and ing translations in your ear as someone one example, a sentence written in Arabic leech-like sh, called a Babel sh, that speaks to you in a foreign tongue. meaning The White House conrmed you stick in your ear. In Star Trek, mean- This may sound fanciful, but already a the existence of a new bin Laden tape while, it is known simply as the Universal system has been developed that can was translated using a standard rule- Language Translator. But whatever you translate speeches or lectures from one based translator and became Alpine call it, there is no doubting the practical language into another, in real time and re- white new presence tape registered for value of a device that is capable of trans- gardless of the subject matter. The system coee conrms Laden. So it is hardly sur- lating any language into another. required no programming of grammatical prising that researchers in the eld have Remarkably, however, such devices rules or syntax. Instead it was given a vast migrated towards statistical translation in are now on the verge of becoming a real- number of speeches, and their accurate the past few years, says Dr Waibel. ity, thanks to new statistical machine translations (performed by humans) into translation software. Unlike previous ap- a second language, for statistical analysis. Now you’re speaking my language proaches to machine translation, which One of the reasons it works so well is that The statistical approach, which starts o relied upon rules identied by linguists these speeches came from the United Na- without any linguistic knowledge of a which then had to be tediously hand- tions and the European Parliament, language, might seem a strange way of coded into software, this new method re- where a broad range of topics are dis- doing things, but it is actually remarkably quires absolutely no linguistic knowledge cussed. The linguistic knowledge is auto- similar to the way humans attempt to or expert understanding of a language in matically extracted from these huge data translate languages, says Shou-de Lin, a order to translate it. And last month re- resources, says Dr Waibel. machine-translation expert who was un- searchers at Carnegie Mellon University Statistical translation encompasses a til recently a researcher at the University (CMU) in Pittsburgh began work on a range of techniques, but what they all of Southern California’s Information Sci- machine that they hope will be able to have in common is the use of statistical ences Institute (ISI). It looks at the script learn a new language simply getting for- analysis, rather than rigid rules, to convert and bunches symbols together, he ex- eign speakers to talk into it and perhaps, text from one language into another. Most plains, much as a human mind might try eventually, by watching television. systems start with a large bilingual corpus to solve the problem. But in order for this Within the next few years there will be of text. By analysing the frequency with approach to work, the voracious transla- an explosion in translation technologies, which clusters of words appear in close tion systems must be fed with huge num- says Alex Waibel, director of the Interna- proximity in the two languages, it is possi- bers of training texts. This prompted Franz tional Centre for Advanced Communica- ble to work out which words correspond Och, Google’s machine-translation ex- tion Technology, which is based jointly at to each other in the two languages. This pert, to boast recently that the search-en-1 The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Computing 13 Most of the time, the languages that translation researchers deal with in their laboratories are so unfamiliar that they may as well be alien.

2 gine giant would probably have a key role But since the number of high-quality par- ject the Ukrainian theory. But it was a in the future of machine translation, since allel texts is limited, particularly for more small victory for him, because it let him it has such a huge repository of text. obscure languages, a lot of eort is now test his translation software on the closest Translation systems are of limited use being put into the development of statisti- thing he could get to an alien language. if they cannot be used by people on the cal translation systems that can manage We wanted to translate documents that move, such as tourists looking for a res- without them. Instead, the aim is to use had never been seen before, he says. taurant or soldiers talking to local people statistical techniques to divine the lan- Provided there is some common frame in a war zone. So what is on the cards to re- guage’s inherent structure, and then to reference in the subject matter, there is no place the good old-fashioned phrase- work out what particular words mean. If reason why translating an alien language book? In the past couple of years the this could be done, of course, it would should not eventually be possible, says Dr Defence Advanced Research Projects open the way to a universal translator. Waibel. Most of the time, the languages Agency (DARPA), an American military How far can machine translators be that machine-translation researchers deal research body, has been testing a number taken? There is no reason why they with in their laboratories are so unfamil- of projects that cram a combination of should not become as good, if not better, iar that they may as well be alien, he says. speech-recognition, machine-translation than humans, says Dr Waibel. Indeed, Dr As a joke, one of the students built a and voice-synthesis software into a hand- Lin and his colleague Kevin Knight at ISI Klingon translator, he says, referring to held device. One of these projects, de- have been applying statistical translation the ctional alien language in Star Trek. veloped at CMU and called Babylon, can techniques to try to make sense of ancient But perhaps the best way to practice now perform two-way translations be- hieroglyphics and scriptures that have translating an alien language would be to tween spoken English and Iraqi Arabic. baed scholars for centuries. One exam- try to communicate with dolphins, says ple is a 15th-century work known as the Dr Black. By using statistical translation From Babylon to Babel sh Voynich manuscript, which is written in programs to analyse the chirps, clicks and This is a huge improvement on the earlier an unknown and mysterious language. whistles of wild dolphins o the coast of one-way text-based translators used by Its length, of around 20,000 words, and the Bahamas, he and his colleagues be- American soldiers, says Alan Black, one the regular patterns in its syntax, mean it lieve it may be possible to make sense of of the researchers involved in the de- is unlikely to be a hoax, says Dr Knight. what the dolphins are saying. The chal- velopment of Babylon. For one thing, Ira- One theory is that it was written in a lenge here lies in both capturing good qis can respond in their native language, known language but using a novel alpha- samples and also identifying words. rather than communicating through nods bet. Some people have suggested that it is Only then can the structure and fre- and shakes of the head, he says. Better actually written in a form of ancient quency be analysed, he says. still, Babylon is capable of translating Ukrainian in which vowels are omitted. So far, Dr Black and his team have completely novel sentences, rather than Dr Knight has used a statistical-transla- managed to identify only signature whis- being limited to only a couple of hundred tion program to debunk this theory by tles, the calls that dolphins use to identify set phrases, as with the earlier systems. showing that the order and frequencies of themselves. But Douglas Adams’s sugges- It is still far from perfect, says Dr Black. symbols do not match those in Ukrainian. tion that sh-like creatures might provide But that is hardly surprising given the lim- This was not particularly surprising, says the key to understanding alien languages ited processing power of a hand-held Dr Knight, because most scholars now re- might turn out to be true after all. 7 computer. By comparison, the hardware used to run the lecture translator looks al- most like a supercomputer, he says. The trade-o is that these hand-held systems tend to be domain specicthat is, they work well as long as the conversation is limited to a particular topic. The next phase of the project, says Dr Black, will be to allow portable transla- tion devices to be trained in the eld. The idea is that when a traveller encounters people speaking a new language that is unknown by the translation device, it can be trained by exposing the software to lots of chatter. In theory, once a language model has been acquired, you could just leave the device in training mode in front of the television, although it would prob- ably be preferable to nd some bilingual people and ask them to repeat set phrases containing a lot of linguistic information, says Dr Black. Learning a new language from scratch, as humans can, is far more dicult than statistical translation using parallel texts. 14 Case history The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006

Besides being a boon for cancer care, PET has found uses in brain-imaging and is now being used to help diagnose Park- inson’s disease; to identify regions in the brain that cause epileptic seizures in pa- tients considering surgery; and to help distinguish early Alzheimer’s from other types of dementia. As a result, the use of PET scanning is growing fast. Around 2.7m scans will take place worldwide this year, up from 2m scans in 2005. Although PET accounts for only a small fraction of all medical imaging, its use is expected to grow by 30% a year over the next few years. (By comparison, 45m CT scans were performed in America last year.)

Against the odds While the future of PET looks bright, its past has been lled with trouble. Since the technology rst went on the market in 1976, its adoption has faced nancial, technological and regulatory hurdles. As a result, it has taken PET two decades to move from experimental use to clinical practice. If I ever wrote a book about PET, I would call it ‘Against All Odds’, says Michael Phelps, who chairs the de- partment of Molecular and Medical Pharmacology at the University of Cali- fornia at Los Angeles (UCLA) and who played a big role in the development and commercialisation of the technology. The power of positrons Traditional nuclear medicine uses at- oms, not naturally found in the body, as radioactive tags. These atoms build up in Medical imaging: Positron-emission tomography is more expensive certain tissues, and the radiation they and complex than other body-scanning technologies. But, as this emit, in the form of gamma rays, is de- tected to form an image. But such atoms case history explains, it has proven its worth after years of struggle are bulky and have to be introduced into the body, so they can interfere in the very NE of the rst patients to enroll in That is because unlike CT scans or processes they are trying to measure. O2002 for an early clinical trial for magnetic-resonance imaging (MRI), Some radioactive atoms, however Sutent, a drug that is now approved to which display the anatomy of the body, such as oxygen-15, nitrogen-13 and car- treat a rare type of gastrointestinal cancer, PET makes metabolic activity visible, us- bon-11are much smaller, and their non- stands out in the memory of Annick Van ing short-lived radioactive substances, radioactive forms are the building blocks den Abbeele, director of nuclear medi- called radiotracers, introduced into the of biological molecules found through- cine at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute body. In the late 1990s America’s Food out the body. Replacing a stable atom in a in Boston. The patient, then aged 53, had and Drug Administration (FDA) deter- molecule with its radioactive counterpart developed at least 20 dierent tumours. mined that the most commonly used PET produces a molecule that is chemically After more than six weeks on Sutent, a radiotracer was safe and eective. Since identical to the natural product, but with computed tomography (CT) scana type then, PET has become an invaluable tool a radioactive tag on it. That means it can of X-rayrevealed no changes in the size in oncology, often leading to more accu- be followed wherever it goes in the body. of the tumours. But a positron-emission rate cancer diagnoses, the detection of re- When an oxygen-15, nitrogen-13 or tomography (PET) scan revealed that a current diseases and a better assessment carbon-11 atom undergoes radioactive complete shutdown in tumour metabo- of how patients respond to treatment, decay, it emits a positrona positively lism had occurred after just one week on says Peter Conti, president of America’s charged particle that is the antimatter the new drug. By including functional Society of Nuclear Medicine and the di- counterpart of the electron. The positron imaging with PET, says Dr Van den Ab- rector of the PET Imaging Science Centre does not get far before it collides with an beele, we were absolutely astonished to at the University of Southern California. electron, and the two particles annihilate realise how quickly we could determine It’s revolutionised how we manage pa- each other. Their mass is converted into that a drug was hitting the target. tients with cancer, he says. energy in the form of two photons that 1 The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Case history 15

2 travel in opposite directions from the site age of the distribution of the radiotracer of the collision. Using detectors to look within the patient. Despite competition Seeing with antimatter out for the near-simultaneous arrival of from other laboratories, Dr Ter-Pogos- How PET scanning works pairs of photons, it is possible to work out sian’s group succeeded in constructing a 1. The patient is injected with a small amount of a where the positrons are being emitted series of prototypes that led to the rst radioactive “tracer”, the molecular structure of PET which is similar to a substance that occurs naturally and form an image of the tissues where commercial scanner. in the body. Different tracer molecules build up in the radioactive atoms have accumulated. Because there was little grant money different types of tissue, so an appropriate tracer is One of the rst medical studies that at- available for his group’s research pur- chosen that accumulates in the area of interest. tempted to take advantage of the unique suits, Dr Phelps decided in 1973 to contact physics of positron emitters was reported EG&G ORTEC, a scientic-instrument in the early 1950s by Gordon Brownell company in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, to see and William Sweet of the Massachusetts if he could get a favourable deal on sup- General Hospital in Boston. By using two plies. He reached Terry Douglass, then Radioactive opposing detectors, the near-simulta- the chief engineer of ORTEC’s life-sci- nucleus Gamma neous arrival of pairs of photons could ences division, who invited him to visit. ray be recorded and counted. As the detec- Dr Phelps made the nearly eight-hour tors moved in a raster-like fashion up and drive in his red Volkswagen Beetle, along Positron down on opposite sides of the head, in- with his colleagues Nizar Mullani and Gamma creased count rates revealed the site of a Edward Homan. Dr Douglass was im- ray Electron brain tumour in which the radioactive at- pressed, and agreed to loan the group oms had accumulated. some equipment to develop what the re- 2. An atom in the tracer molecule undergoes Two obstacles, however, hampered searchers had dubbed PETTan acronym radioactive decay, and emits a positron (the antimatter equivalent of an electron). The positron the use of biologically important posi- for positron-emission transaxial tomo- soon encounters an electron, and the two particles tron emitters for some time. The rst was graph. (Transaxial was later dropped.) annihilate each other, producing a pair of gamma that the radioactive elements in question An early prototype, designed to image rays, travelling in opposite directions. decay very quickly. This is a good thing objects and animals, consisted of a table Gamma ray from the patient’s point of view, since it with a hole at its centre and detectors po- detectors minimises the dose of radiation, but it sitioned around it. PETT III, however, al- means that the radiotracers must be man- ready resembled today’s scanners in Gamma rays ufactured very close to the imaging sys- form and function. Completed in late tem. And that highlights the second 1974, it featured a gliding bed for patients obstacle: such positron emitters must be and a hexagonal array of detectors, made in a expensive cyclotron (a type of which could collect data from multiple particle accelerator). angles at the same time. Because Dr Despite these drawbacks, in 1966 the Douglass and ORTEC had supported PET Patient late Michel Ter-Pogossian, then head of early on, Dr Phelps and Dr Homan de- Washington University’s division of ra- cided to collaborate with the company to 3. The gamma rays are detected by a doughnut- diological sciences in St Louis, and Henry develop a commercial version of the shaped array of detectors that surround the patient. Wagner, professor of radiology and scanner, the rst example of which was When two gamma rays are detected on opposite medicine at Johns Hopkins University, delivered in 1976 to UCLA, where Dr sides of the doughnut at the same time, they are assumed to be a pair, and their point of origin must published an inuential paper that advo- Phelps and Dr Homan had moved. lie on the line between the two detectors. cated the use of positron emitters as trac- EG&G ORTEC sold only a few scan- ers, on the grounds that they seemed ners a year to research institutions, but Dr uniquely suited for investigating the bio- Douglass believed that PET was poised chemical processes of the body. for success. So when the company put up Their eorts coincided with an impor- its life-sciences division for sale in 1983, tant scientic breakthrough: the develop- he and a few of his colleagues pooled ment of computed tomography, in which their savings and borrowed $2.5m to buy mathematical algorithms are used to con- its PET business. Dr Phelps served as an struct images from mountains of data. In adviser to the new company, dubbed late 1972 Dr Ter-Pogossian and Dr Phelps, Computer Technology and Imaging who was then a young assistant profes- (CTI). CTI’s mission statement was sim- sor at Washington University and ple: to make clinical PET a reality. worked in Dr Ter-Pogossian’s lab, went to 4. By combining hundreds of thousands of a meeting of the Radiological Society of Do you take sugar? observations of gamma-ray pairs, it is possible to North America in Chicago where an early But clinical PET would probably not have construct an image showing the distribution of CT scanner was on display. Both came succeeded without the development of a the radioactive tracer, and hence of the back convinced of the importance of the new radiotracer, a sugar molecule tagged associated metabolic activity. PET scans are often conducted in conjunction with other types of scan, approach, and subsequently applied it to with the radioactive isotope uorine-18. such as CT or MRI scans, which show anatomical PET. Using a computer to analyse thou- Fluorodeoxyglucose, or FDG for short, structure. Metabolic activity can then be sands of pairs of detected photons, it was turned out to be exceptionally useful for a correlated with anatomy. possible to construct a more detailed im- variety of reasons. For one thing, uo- 1 Source: The Economist 16 Case history The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 As anatomical images reach a limit in what they can reveal, PET’s ability to look at underlying biological processes is just starting to be tapped.

2 rine-18 decays far more slowly than other 65 or older) refused to pay for the scans. biologically useful positron emitters. Its Securing FDA approval proved to be half-lifethe time taken for half the radio- dicult. Doctors pointed out that the active atoms in a sample to decayis 109 amount of PET radiotracer administered minutes, compared with two minutes for was so low, it didn’t cause any pharmac- oxygen-15, ten minutes for nitrogen-13 ological eect. But because the material and 20 minutes for carbon-11. was introduced into the patient, the FDA Moreover, because many cells in the required a clinical-trial process nearly as body are dependent on glucose to func- stringent as that for a therapeutic drug. tion, FDG can in eect create a low-reso- It was kind of ridiculous, recalls Dr lution anatomical map of the human Conti. Because FDG was not patented, body. But most importantly, not all tis- no company was willing to develop it, sues consume sugar at equal rates. Can- yet there were hundreds of articles cer cells, for example, exhibit an showing how clinically useful it was.To exceptional hunger for glucose, which educate regulators and the public about means tumours show up as hot spots of PET, those in the industry had formed a FDG concentration. not-for-prot trade organisation, the In- Many in the eld did not immediately stitute for Clinical PET, in 1990. For a recognise the value of FDG. According to long time, however, the group’s lobby- Joanna Fowler, a senior chemist at Brook- ing eorts got nowhere. Things began to aimed at particular molecular targets, PET haven National Laboratory on Long Is- improve when Dr Phelps explained the has taken on a new role. Many of the new land, New York, who was part of the benets of PET to his friend Ted Stevens, a targeted drugs, such as Gleevec or Sutent, original team that synthesised the radio- Republican Senator from Alaska. In 1997 were designed to stunt the growth of can- tracer in 1976, it was several years before a Mr Stevens sponsored a provision as part cer cellsbut changes in tumour size oc- scientic journal nally accepted the of the FDA Modernisation Act that di- cur slowly, if at all. Only a PET scan could group’s paper for publication. The inven- rected the agency to put new procedures quickly show whether tumour cells were tors did not patent the compound. in place to approve PET radiotracers and dying o and the drug was having the de- In 1985 CTI took a big step to make PET allow for their legal production in the sired eect. If we had relied on the con- more useful: it bought Cyclotron Cor- meantime. A few weeks later Medicare ventional way of assessing drug poration, a bankrupt cyclotron-maker. agreed to start reimbursements for PET. response, with CT or MRI, we might not CTI set out to optimise the machines for Around the same time, CTI set up have considered that those drugs were hospitals, which meant making them PETNET, a web of pharmacies around working, says Dr Van den Abbeele. smaller and easier to operate. The com- the country that could supply hospitals pany also collaborated with other re- with FDG, eliminating the need for each Scanning the future searchers to develop processes to hospital to make its own positron emit- The FDA is taking note as well. The automate the synthesis of radiotracers. ters in its own cyclotron. By the time agency recently began working with By 1986 CTI was oering a package deal: a Medicare began reimbursements, ten America’s National Cancer Institute and scanner with a cyclotron for $2m. sites were already in operation. After others on a new initiative that will inves- To expand the sales of its rather ex- that, the number of PET procedures and tigate whether PET scans can be used in pensive machines, CTI looked for a mar- the sale of scanners began to take o. clinical trials to assess whether a patient’s keting partner with worldwide reach, Meanwhile, another PET milestone tumour is responding to treatment, even which it found in Siemens. The company was in the making. In 1994 David Towns- if it may not be shrinking. If the studies made a $2.5m investment in CTI in 1985, end, then an assistant professor of radiol- are successful, says George Mills, director and a few years later bought a 49.9% stake ogy at the University of Pittsburgh, of the FDA’s medical-imaging division, in the business for $30m. (In 2005 Sie- together with Ronald Nutt, a co-founder PET could be used to shorten clinical-trial mens nally bought the remaining of CTI, applied for a grant from America’s times and cut expenses. shares of CTI for about $1 billion.) Also National Institutes of Health to develop a Even now, much of PET’s potential re- around 1990 General Electric bought device that would combine PET and CT mains untapped. Depending on the ra- Scanditronix, a Swedish company which scanning. We started thinking, if we add diotracer that is being used, PET can was CTI’s main competitor. CT to PET, explains Dr Townsend, we measure many dierent processes. That In 1991 a cover of the Journal of Nu- might have something interesting, since it is why drug giants such as Pzer and clear Medicine proclaimed Clinical PET: will give both anatomy and function. Merck are using PET in their drug-discov- its time has come. Studies were demon- As it turned out, the device revolution- ery and development programmes. It strating the value of PET for brain and car- ised the eld. In 1998 a prototype was in- gives us metrics for early no-go deci- diac imaging, and increasingly for cancer stalled at the University of Pittsburgh, sions, says Richard Hargreaves, Merck’s imaging too. But while PET had overcome and three years later the rst PET/CT vice-president of imaging. a lot of technological barriers by this scanners hit the market. Today nearly all It has taken PET a long time to carve time, regulatory hurdles remained. Be- PET scanners sold are combination de- out a niche beside CT and MRI. But as cause virtually no PET radiotracers had vices. The machines make it easier to in- anatomical images reach a limit in what yet been approved by the FDA, Medicare terpret images, says Dr Townsend, and they can reveal, PET’s ability to look at (America’s government-sponsored also help to reduce scanning time. underlying biological processes is only health-care programme for people aged With the emergence of new drugs just beginning to be exploited. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Military technology 17

The march of technology

Military equipment: Researchers are devising new ways to turn soldiers into cyborg-like, high-tech ghting machines

TEALTH bombers, giant aircraft carri- gether. So the aim of the FFW programme, S ers and nuclear submarines are the and of similar eorts such as Britain’s modern symbols of military might, but Future Infantry Soldier Technology pro- they are of limited use in today’s asym- ject, Germany’s Projekthaus System Sol- metric conicts. The old certainties of the dat and Italy’s Soldato Futuro initiative is cold war have given way to messy urban- to integrate all of these technologies to guerrilla operations in Iraq, Somalia and create a seamless partnership with the Liberia, search-and-destroy missions in soldier. The result, if it works, will be to Afghanistan and the Sudan, and peace- transform each soldier into a kind of keeping operations in many parts of the part-human, part-machine cyborg world. This has shifted the emphasis an f-16 on legs, as Mr DeGay puts away from expensive weapons systems it. The best way to think of the sol- and back towards individual soldiers. As dier of the future, he says, is as a result, programmes to develop new an integrated, mobile weapons solder-centric technologies have been system, like a Bradley ghting launched in America, Britain, Germany, vehicle or an Abrams tank. Italy and other countries. This means rethinking ev- Right now, we aren’t losing any sub- ery aspect of a soldier’s equip- marines or aircraft carriers, says Edwin ment. We have stripped the Thomas, the head of the Department of soldier down to the skin, Materials Science and Engineering at the says Mr DeGay. In future, Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s that skin will be clothed in a Institute for Soldier Nanotechnologies. uniform made up of three So spending money on protecting sol- layers. Closest to the skin diers is really the right thing to be doing. will be a layer of clothing, Modern soldiers are hardly short of embedded with sensors technological gizmos. Over the years they that can detect whether the have been weighed down with all kinds wearer is injured, dehy- of gadgets, in addition to their usual drated, exhausted or even weapons, equipment and provisions. A asleep. In the event of injury, vital survey of American soldiersthe rst signs can be measured to assess the conducted in 40 yearsfound that an soldier’s medical condition, and this infantryman typically carries around 120 information, plus the soldier’s exact pounds, or 55kg, on his back. If I were to location, can be transmitted to a med- put 120 pounds of kit on you with a weap- ical team, so that it knows what to ex- ons system, and then tell you, ‘Okay, now pect and can act quickly when it I am going to shoot at you, and you’re go- arrives. ing to shoot these targets,’ you would un- The second layer consists of derstand how truly dicult it is not only electro-textiles that provide to accomplish your mission, but to just power and data connections to stay alive, says Jean-Louis Dutch De- these sensors, and to the various Gay of the American army’s Future Force other devices being carried by the Warrior (FFW) programme, a $250m ef- soldier. Radio antennae can also fort to devise military technologies for de- be incorporated into this layer. Fi- ployment starting in 2010. nally, the third and topmost layer Individually, each radio, satellite-po- consists of a new kind of armour. sitioning unit or night-vision system Existing armour stops bullets, works well; the problem is that these sep- says Mr DeGay, but it is heavy, arate devices do not work smoothly to- and its snug t means that the im- 1 18 Military technology The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Individually, each radio or night-vision system works well. But these separate devices do not work smoothly together.

2 pact of a bullet can still cause broken every soldier into a living, breathing, year, $50m project is developing smart bones or internal injuries. The new ar- ghting internet node, linked to every fabrics for use in battlesuitssecond mour, which will be battle-tested this other soldier and vehicle at all times. We skins that can make soldiers stronger and summer, is based upon exible Kevlar aectionately call this the Borg eectev- less vulnerable. One smart fabric gener- plates positioned a few centimetres eryone is part of the collective, he says, ates energy from sunlight; another con- above the skin. This means the plates are referring to the race of cyborgs from Star tracts like an articial muscle when a better able to absorb and distribute the Trek. voltage is applied. impact of an incoming roundand also A centrepiece of this eort is a helmet Other advanced technologies are un- makes the uniform cooler to wear. with a Borg-like eyepiece. It displays an der development at SRI International, an Although this new uniform integrates image that appears to hover in space in independent research institute based in the various devices carried by an individ- the wearer’s eld of vision, like a 19-inch Menlo Park, California. These include a ual soldier, the next step is to connect the television at arm’s length. This will make system to locate snipers, which relies on soldiers themselves, so that they can it possible to deliver battleeld informa- sound sensors wired into the clothing of exchange information and function tion to soldiers from other sources, in ef- troops in the vicinity. These pick up the smoothly as a unit. That, says Mr fect extending their senses. If a squad is sound of the sniper’s weapon being red, DeGay, requires turning moving through the desert, for example, a and acoustic analysis then determines the drone aircraft might y ahead of the sol- sniper’s position, says Scott Seaton of diers and send back pictures of enemy SRI’s Engineering and Systems Division. troops lying in wait. Similarly, the display Also under development is a system that can act as a digital map and compass, can uses SRI’s PenRad penetrating-radar tech- show the positions of other soldiers nology to allow soldiers to see inside a nearby, and might even show real-time building before entering it. video from elsewhere on the battleeld all of which adds up to expanded situa- Technological overkill? tional awareness, as it is known. We al- But will soldiers be able to handle all this ways talk about repower being the true technology and the torrent of data it will power, but knowledge is the true power, provideor will it add to the chaos of says Mr DeGay. war? The aim of human-systems engi- And these technologies are neering, says Mr DeGay, is not to bury just the start. The Future Warrior troops in data, but to act as ampliers for Concept, a part of the FFW the mind, body and senses. We’re trying programme that is in- to avoid paralysis by analysis, says Mr tended to imagine the mili- Seaton. When the shooting starts, you tary technologies of 2025, don’t want to be looking at your com- envisages a helmet, similar to puter. You need to being paying attention a motorcycle helmet, with a to what is going on around you. 180-degree display, armour Yet when it comes to making soldiers with built-in heating and more machine-like, says Colonel Kip Ny- cooling systems, and an ar- gren, head of the Department of Civil and ray of sensors to extend the Mechanical Engineering at the Military soldier’s senses still further. Academy at West Point, there ought to be All of this is wrapped up in a more discussion about where to draw the futuristic black uniform. line. We have become our technology, While the FFW pro- he says. It’s something we need to talk gramme is the agship of aboutwe are moving really rapidly America’s eorts to re- ahead technologically, but politically we vamp tomorrow’s soldier, need to have these discussions. it is not the only such If the technology really does work as programme. The De- advertised, however, might it eventually fence Advanced Re- do away with the need for human sol- search Projects Agency, diers altogetherand allow them to be re- an American military re- placed by robots? The rst steps have search organisation, is funding the de- already been taken: drone aircraft have al- velopment of exoskeletons, for example, ready been used to re missiles. But for that use external hydraulics and pneu- the foreseeable future, people will still do matic systems to endow soldiers with the killing on the ground. Humans have superhuman strengththough such sys- got to be in the loop, says Dr Thomas. It tems are still far too bulky and power- is probably going to be necessary for the hungry for battleeld use. Another ap- next 20 years, maybe 100. The technol- proach, being pursued at the ogy of warfare may be more elaborate Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is than ever, but the soldier of the future will to use nanotechnology. Dr Thomas’s ve- still be a man, not a machine. 7 The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Energy 19

house gases than a petrol engine does. Again, that turns out to be wrong: studies by California’s Air Resources Board con- rm that generating the electricity to power cars in pure-electric mode pro- duces only about half of the greenhouse gases of typical petrol vehicles. This as- sumes the power grid is half coal-red, as America’s is today. As the grid decarbo- nises over time, such emissions will fall. Fine, but surely few people want a car you have to keep plugging inwhat hap- pens when the battery runs out? Accord- ing to Bill Reinert of Toyota, one of the great advantages of the Prius electrical systemin which the battery is charged by the petrol engine and using energy re- captured during brakingis the fact that you never need to plug it in and that it Plugging into the future never runs out of juice. That is far more convenient for drivers, insists Toyota, which has opposed the idea of plug-ins. But Mr Hanssen notes that even if the battery pack in his modied Prius goes would without hybridisation. But the at, it simply switches over to the petrol gathered petrol-heads, almost all of them engine, just as a normal Prius does. The Electric cars: A grassroots men, yawned through presentations on dierence is that his car can go much fur- movement is building hybrid various aspects of hybrids until the nal ther on battery power alone. That is be- topic: plug-ins. As experts described ef- cause he has replaced the original petrol-electric cars that can be forts to connect hybrids to the electrical nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) battery with recharged from the mains. Why? grid, those in the audience scribbled furi- a higher-capacity lithium-ion battery, ously and asked eager questions. And and has hacked the control software to ITH a licence plate that reads I00 when Mr Hanssen, a plug-in pioneer, was prevent the petrol engine kicking in until WMPG, Greg Hanssen is used to his pointed out in the audience, the room the car is moving at high speed. As a re- car attracting attention. Even so, he gave him an ovation. Why all the hoopla, sult, his modied Prius can travel over 30 seemed especially pleased by the crowd when his big ideaplugging the car into miles in all-electric mode, compared with that gathered around his modied Toyota the mains for rechargingseems to some a mile or so for a standard Prius. Prius at a hotel parking lot in San Diego, people to be a big step backward? Toyota did not provide the software during a recent conference held there by source code, but Mr Hanssen and his col- the Society of Automotive Engineers. Electric sceptics leagues at EnergyCS, a rm outside Los They poked at various parts of the car For one thing, say the sceptics, plugging in Angeles, managed to trick the Prius’s com- with vigour, and positively gushed when will be expensive and will stress the al- puter into thinking that his giant battery is he opened the back to reveal what any ready overloaded power grid. Actually, really a factory-installed battery that mys- punter would have described as an ordin- that is unlikely. Because drivers will teriously happens to be full of charge ary-looking electrical plug. mostly plug in their cars overnight, they much of the time. Even when the petrol Such enthusiasm is surprising, since will benet from cheaper o-peak power engine kicks in (as the master computer automotive engineers are a hard bunch to rates. In America, using cheap electricity requires on all Prius cars at higher speeds), impress. The technologies involved in to power cars can reduce the cost per mile electric power is still blended in to im- cars have been rened countless times by 75% compared with petrol (or even prove fuel economy and provides up to since the rst internal-combustion engine more, given current high petrol prices). 75% of the total power at 55mph. appeared over a century ago. It would The savings are even greater in Europe, Riding with Mr Hanssen from San take a pretty big breakthrough to take which has high petrol taxes. True, if many Diego to Los Angeles in his hacked Prius, their breath away today. And yet that is drivers plugged in during the day it would your correspondent saw the other reason what happened in San Diego, at a confer- raise peak demand, but software in the he is a hero to the engineers. The detailed ence devoted to hybrid cars. cars could prevent daytime charging. diagnostics screen on his dashboard veri- Hybrid technology, pioneered by Sceptics also argue that electric cars are ed that his licence plate does not lie: his Toyota with its Prius, combines the usual misleadingly clean: they are pollute car really does achieve 100mpg. Given petrol engine with an electric motor and somewhere else machines, they sco. that the average fuel economy of new battery that never need to be plugged in. While running on battery power they American vehicles is less than 30mpg, The resulting gain in fuel economy is im- produce no tailpipe emissions but, critics that is quite an achievement. pressive: the Prius achieves over 40 miles note, the coal-intensive grid electricity EnergyCS has handled the conversion per gallon, perhaps 20% more than it they use surely produces more green- of around half a dozen Prius cars already.1 20 Energy The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006

A motley crew of hackers, entrepreneurs and Plugging away idealists has sprung up to boost the nascent How plug-in hybrid cars work 1. When running in all-electric mode, the vehicle technology of plug-in hybrids. relies on battery power to drive an electric motor, which in turn drives the wheels. BATTERY 2 With the help of Clean Tech, a systems eets of plug-in vehicles to prove that de- integration rm, it plans to oer plug-in mand for them really exists. That is impor- retrots to the general public this year for tant not only because carmakers are around $12,000. The company hopes to notoriously risk-averse (given the huge plug in Europeans through Amberjac, its sunk costs of existing capital stock). Bat- European partner. It may nd a receptive tery enthusiasts whisper darkly that the POWER audience: Priuses in Europe already have car companies never wanted battery cars CONTROL a button allowing drivers to go into all- to succeed, and so lied about a lack of con- UNIT ELECTRIC MOTOR electric mode for brief periods. (The sumer demand. Ms Sexton and other for- 2. The petrol engine comes into play only when the button is not wired up in American mer insiders point to long waiting lists vehicle is running at high speed (for example, on a Priuses, though it can be activated.) they say were ignored by the big car com- motorway) or if the battery is exhausted. Power panies, who chose instead to shut down from the petrol engine drives the wheels directly, Blame it on the hydrogen their electric programmes and to crush and also turns the generator, which drives the CS electric motor. Energy is at the forefront of a clean-car most of those electric cars. GENERATOR revolution, but it is not alone. A motley All this talk of the obstinacy and ruth- PETROL crew of hackers, entrepreneurs and ideal- lessness of Detroit comes as no surprise to ENGINE ists has sprung up to boost the nascent Andrew Frank, an engineering professor technology of plug-in hybrids. Most of at the University of California at Davis. these enthusiasts are in, or from, Califor- The oil shocks of the 1970s inspired him, nianot surprising, given the state’s he says, to pursue technologies to make a POWER greenery and its love of electric cars. Curi- big car capable of 100mpg. For three de- CONTROL ously, another common thread is a pas- cades, he has been advocating hybrid UNIT ELECTRIC MOTOR sionate hatred for hydrogen fuel cells. technologyand seemingly getting no- As a forthcoming documentary lm where with the big car manufacturers. 3. The battery is recharged in three ways. When braking, the electric motor acts as a generator, Who Killed the Electric Car? (released And yet Dr Frank has persevered. converting the vehicle’s kinetic energy into later this month) makes clear, this crowd Visitors to his lab today nd a plug-in Ford electrical energy and storing it in the battery. The does not blame the failure in the 1990s of Explorer sports-utility vehicle (SUV) engine can also recharge the battery directly when battery carssuch as GM’s EV1, the most equipped with a giant 16 kilowatt-hour necessary. And, of course, the battery can be aerodynamic production car ever (kWh) battery designed for long rangea recharged from the mains by plugging the car in. madeon the limitations of battery tech- conventional Prius battery has a capacity POWER nology or a lack of customer interest. of 1.3kWh. He has replaced the original CABLE BATTERY Chelsea Sexton, a former marketer of EV1 3.5-litre internal-combustion engine with GENERATOR cars and a star of the lm, typies the a frugal 1.9-litre version, thus boosting PETROL ENGINE view of the plug-in crowd when she fuel economy, but the added kick from blames gullible regulators and cynical the electric motor means this SUV can still carmakers for abandoning electric cars accelerate to 60mph faster than an ordin- for the distant dream of hydrogen. In- ary Explorer. He has made similar modi- spired by the hacking of Priuses, various cations to a Mercury saloon, so it can POWER lobbying groups have sprung up hoping travel 40 miles in all-electric mode and CONTROL to entice manufacturers to produce plug- achieve an astounding 200mpg. UNIT ELECTRIC MOTOR ins and to push politicians to support Dr Frank draws inspiration from The Source: Toyota, The Economist them. Ms Sexton, for example, now helps Great Race, a lm from 1965 in which the run Plug In America, a group that includes obeat Professor Fate takes on a conven- Hymotion, a Canadian rm, has also Jim Woolsey, a former head of the CIA. tional challenger in an automobile race. converted a Prius into a plug-in. Rather Felix Kramer runs the California Cars Team Fate, as Dr Frank’s researchers are than retrotting cars on-site, this rm has Initiative (CalCars), a non-prot advo- called, has won a number of contests developed a modular kit that is intended cacy group that promotes plug-ins. With with its hybrid vehiclesas the black vic- to be installed (in just two hours, suppos- help from EnergyCS, his outt created the tory banners depicting skulls and cross- edly) by authorised garages around North rst plug-in Priusthough it used cheap bones (Professor Fate’s insignia) on the America. Ricardo Bazzarrella, Hymo- lead-acid batteries, which are much lab’s walls attest. In the movie the profes- tion’s president, hopes his kit will fall in heavier and shorter-lived than lithium- sor is really wacky, jokes one of his stu- price from $12,000 today to $6,500 by ion ones. During Earth Day celebrations dents, and that’s right on the money. 2008. He plans to develop similar kits for in April, Ron Gremban, CalCars’ technol- Dr Frank seems comfortable with his the hybrid versions of the popular Ford ogy guru, led a group that converted a image as the absent-minded professor. Escape SUV and the bestselling Toyota Prius into a plug-in in three days, while I’ve been Professor Fate a long time, he Camry saloon. Every new hybrid that the public watched. In co-ordination with says with a smile. Even when he got some- comes out, we’re looking to make into a the Electric Auto Association, CalCars where with the big car rms, he thinks he plug-in, he says. now plans to release a free open source got cheated. He showed o his technol- Entrepreneurs and academics are not version of its conversion instructions. ogy years ago to visitors from Toyota. At the only ones plugging in. The Electric Plug-In Partners, which counts many the time they expressed no interest, he Power Research Institute (EPRI), the re- electric utilities and green groups as mem- says, but he was struck by the similarity of search arm of America’s power utilities, bers, is drumming up pre-orders for the Prius technology later unveiled. has joined up with DaimlerChrysler for a1 The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Energy 21

2 trial in over two dozen of its Sprinter vans will be converted into plug-ins. It expects them to be used primarily as eet vehi- cles, such as delivery trucks, that return to a depot for recharging every night. The plug-in crowd may be paranoid and conspiratorial, but it is nevertheless eective. Thanks to its eorts, the number of vehicles converted to plug-in status seems likely to soar from a handful today to hundreds within a year. And if, as plug-in advocates hope, some of the big carmakers develop ocial, commercial The Prius hackers get to work versions of these plug-in vehicles, then this niche technology could hit the big around $5,000 and weighs 180kg even stood up after the New York pre- time over the next few years. though CalCars hopes to reduce that miere of Who Killed the Electric Car? to weight by half with its next prototype. lecture the lm’s director and audience Enough juice? Stan Ovshinksy, who pioneered the that batteries and hydrogen can work Grand ambitions are ne, but there is still NiMH battery, says he has now come up smoothly together. one snag that could yet keep plug-ins from with a radical improvement on that tech- Everyone is agreed on the need for bet- hitting the big time: batteries. Energy stor- nology that would be perfect for plug-in ter batteries, however. And A123 Systems, age has long been the Achilles heel of carsif only his rm ECD Ovonics (partly a spin-o from the Massachusetts Insti- electric cars. Have batteries really become controlled by Chevron, an oil giant) tute of Technology, is now promoting a cheap, reliable and compact enough? The would let him go ahead. new lithium battery technology which answer is a denite maybe. Earlier ver- Yet the future may belong to lithium combines a novel lithium-ion phosphate sions of electric cars (such as the ill-fated technology after all. One reason, says chemistry with nanoscale materials that EV1) used lead-acid batteries. This old Menahem Anderman of Advanced Auto- increase the surface area of the electrodes. technology is cheap and safe, but cannot motive Batteries, a consultancy, is that re- Although it is still unproven in hybrid compete with newer technologies on cent increases in the price of nickel and cars, even the sceptical Dr Anderman weight, range and life. With the rst-ever cobalt have limited the opportunity for thinks this chemical cocktail is consider- hacked Prius, CalCars found that its 135kg further cost reduction of NiMH and made ably less volatile than conventional lith- lead-acid battery provided barely 10 lithium batteries, which have tradition- ium approaches; furthermore, it has miles of all-electric range, performed ally been far more expensive, more com- potential for lower cost and long life. poorly at lower temperatures and wore petitive. Alan Mumby of Johnson A123’s batteries can already be found in out within a year. Controls, a big car-parts supplier, agrees. some Black & Decker power tools, where Hope springs eternal, however. Firey, His rm has recently entered into a joint they deliver two to three times the run- a rm spun o from Caterpillar, an indus- venture with Saft, a French battery giant, time and peak power as rival batteries. trial-machinery giant, has developed a to produce lithium-ion batteries for hy- A123 plans to supply Hymotion with bat- radical new approach to lead-acid batter- brid cars. Mr Mumby maintains that the teries for plug-ins, and says it has the ies. The rm replaces the conventional lithium-ion battery both delivers and ac- manufacturing capacity to make 10,000 lead plates with graphite foam, which car- cepts power very readily, making it ideal such batteries a year. ries a slurry of chemically active materi- for hybrids with regenerative braking. Given that there are only a handful of als. The foam increases the area of contact Lithium-ion technology is the wave of the plug-in cars on the road today, that gure between the electrodes and the active future. Lithium also has the crucial ad- sounds rather ambitious. Even so, the les- chemicals, and greatly reduces the pro- vantages of low size and weight. Hymo- son oered by Professor Fate is that think- blem of corrosion. The rm claims that tion’s production-ready battery kits, due ing big can eventually pay o. The this new approach reduces weight and later this year, will feature lithium-ion automobile business is a gigantic battle- matches the performance of NiMH at batteries weighing just 70kg but deliver- ship, and after 30 years I may have moved one-fth of the cost. It hopes to apply this ing an all-electric range of 25-30 miles. it an inch, reects Dr Frank. That inch technology to hybrid-car batteries. may yet grow to a mile. If the EPRI trial of It sounds promising, but has yet to be Dead end or stepping-stone? plug-in Sprinter vans ends successfully, proven in the eld. In contrast, NiMH bat- Even if the battery woes that have long says Mr Graham, DaimlerChrysler is teries are battle-tested and safe (unlike bedevilled electric cars can be solved, likely to produce a commercial version. some lithium-battery technologies, however, such progress may yet prove a Having long been dismissive of plug-ins, which have an unpleasant tendency to stepping-stone to hydrogenthe bête Toyota has conrmed that it is now seri- explode). Toyota’s conventional Prius has noire of the electric-car crowd. Long ously working on a plug-in Prius. Even aNiMH pack that weighs 35kg or so and term, plug-ins with fuel cells may be the Ford’s boss, Bill Ford, has made encourag- costs around $1,600. Putting NiMH batter- ideal vehicles, says Mr Graham of the ing noises about plug-in hybrids. Rising ies into a plug-in Prius, as CalCars has EPRI. Dr Frank agrees, noting that the hy- fuel prices and improving battery tech- done with the help of Electro Energy, a bridisation would mean cars would need nology only strengthen the case for them. battery-maker, means carrying a lot more less hydrogen on board, and smaller (and This is here-and-now technology, says weight around. Such a battery costs thus cheaper) fuel cells. Dr Ovshinsky Dr Frank with some satisfaction. 7 22 Brain scan The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Present at the creation

veloped into TCP/IP, the protocol that still underpins the internet today. Vinton Cerf was one of the As a result, Dr Cerf and Dr Kahn are of- founding fathers of the internet ten referred to as the fathers of the in- and has continued to take an ternet. They have received many awards active role in its development over the years in recognition of the im- portance of their work, including the National Medal of Technology, the Presi- T WAS as a teenager in the late 1950s dential Medal of Freedom, and a Turing Ithat Vinton Cerf rst encountered a Award (the computer-science equivalent computeran experience he still vividly of a Nobel prize). Even so, Dr Cerf is keen recalls. The machine in question was a to point out that many people were in- SAGE AN/FSQ-7 computer in Santa Mon- volved in the creation of the internet. ica, California, one of a national network There were many of us, he says. As a of military machines, linked together by father, I’ve learned you don’t want to take telephone lines, that was being built to too much credit for what your kids do, be- monitor American airspace. I was cause when they screw up you don’t brought on a tour and got totally excited want to take too much blame. by it, he says. It was a tube-based mach- ine, so big you physically walked inside Keep it simple it. The SAGE machineseach of which From its origins as an experimental net- contained 55,000 vacuum tubes, work in the 1970s, the internet has since weighed 275 tonnes and occupied half an grown to become a global network with acre of oorspacewere in fact the largest around 1 billion users and a dazzling computers ever built. Awestruck, the range of applications, from Amazon and young Mr Cerf was soon totally eBay to Napster and Skype. This growth hooked on computers. I went to and exibility was possible because Stanford and took every computer course rather than prejudging the kinds of uses I could nd, he says. to which the internet might be put and fa- After graduating in mathematics, Mr vouring some at the expense of others, Cerf worked briey at IBM, but soon re- Dr Cerf and Dr Kahn opted to make it as turned to academia, eventually receiving simple as possible. We deliberately did a PhD in computer science from the Uni- not try to tailor the network to particular versity of California, Los Angeles, in 1972. applications, because we believed there During this time he helped to design and would be applications we couldn’t pred- develop the protocol (called NCP) for the ict, says Dr Cerf. We hoped that having ARPANET, the rst modern packet a very general packet-switched capability switched network, which linked to- would support almost anything. So far, it gether several dierent kinds of com- has been true. puter using a common protocol. In 1972 Of all the various new applications Robert Kahn, one of the architects of the that the internet has enabled, Dr Cerf ARPANET, began to think about how to says he has been most surprised by the take this idea one step further, and to link emergence of the web, and particularly together packet networks (rather than by the ensuing avalanche of content just individual computers) of dierent published by hundreds of millions of or- kinds, a concept he called internetting. dinary users. Another surprise, he says, In 1973 he invited Dr Cerf, by now a pro- was the widespread adoption of peer-to- fessor at Stanford, to help with the design peer (P2P) applications such as Napster of a new protocol to make such inter-net- and Skype. The internet was originally work links possible. designed for machine-to-machine com- In May 1974 the two men published a munication (rather than, say, publishing paper, A Protocol for Packet Network In- information from a central source) so the tercommunication, laying out their pro- emergence of P2P is entirely in keeping posals. It refers to internetwork packets with the internet’s original philosophy. and internetwork addressing. By De- Looking to the future, predicts Dr Cerf, cember 1974, when the full specications the thing that is going to surprise me will for the new proposal were published in a be the applications that come up in the document called RFC 675, the term in- mobile environment, where the utility of ternetwork had begun to be abbreviated geographically based information is to internet. The protocol that Dr Cerf much greater. and Dr Kahn designed, initially called Is there anything he would change internet TCP, was subsequently de- about the design he and Dr Kahn cooked 1 The Economist Technology Quarterly June 10th 2006 Brain scan 23 You feel as though you are having some impact on future generations when you are involved in this kind of thing.

2 up for the internet? Dr Cerf admits that trality have recently become hot topics. America’s defence department for use in with hindsight, there are two things he re- This is because large telecoms rms, such mobile communications on the battle- grets not including: authentication, to en- as AT&T and Verizon, are proposing to eld, and by researchers at UCLA who are sure that internet packets really do come build internet fast lanes, which would working on wireless sensor networks. from where they claim to have origi- allow them to charge users and content But it is building networks in space nated, and support for mobile devices. providers for speedy, guaranteed that really appeals to Dr Cerfa science- Since his pioneering studies in the delivery of data. This has prompted a ction fan who describes himself as a 1970s, Dr Cerf has held a succession of wave of protest from those, including Dr frustrated thespian and once had a jobs that mirror the development of the Cerf, who worry that this violates the brief walk-on part in Earth: Final Con- internet. After Stanford he continued his fundamental non-discriminatory basis ict, a sci- television series. The NASA work on the internet’s architecture at the of the internet, and could thus hamper its folks nally started doing a long-term Defence Advanced Research Projects innovative culture. space-communications architecture Agency, the military research body that What particularly oends Dr Cerf study, and it looks like we are now about funded the network’s original develop- about the telecoms operators’ plans is to adopt these concepts as part of their ment. He then moved to MCI, a telecoms that they are trying to force us back into 40-year plan for the further deployment rm, where he developed MCIMail, the a 19th-century model in a 21st-century of space platforms, he says. The idea is rst commercial e-mail service to connect world, he says. Under the old 19th-cen- that future space probes will be IPN-capa- to the internet. After another spell in tury model, telephone calls (like letters ble, so that a network will gradually be research, he returned to MCI in 1994 and and parcels before them) are delivered built up, one spacecraft at a time. The remained there as the company became from A to B, and the caller (or sender) backbone will accrete over time as we closely identied (now as part of World- pays the operator (or delivery rm) ac- launch new missions, so I won’t see the Com) with both the hysteria of the cordingly. The internet, however, oper- fruition of all this, as it will take decades, internet bubble and the subsequent ates on a completely dierent principle: says Dr Cerf. But it is a logical culmina- telecoms crash. users, whether giant corporations or indi- tion of his work on ARPANET (connect- Meanwhile, Dr Cerf also took an ac- viduals, simply pay for access to the net- ing individual machines) and the internet tive role in internet governance. He and workthe faster it is, the more it (connecting networks), since the inter- Dr Kahn founded the Internet Society in costsand there are then no carriage or planetary internet will eventually consist 1992, and Dr Cerf currently spends delivery fees. But Dr Cerf warns that of interconnected planetary internets. around 25% of his time serving as the although this simple approach has made It’s so much fun to be part of all this, chairman of ICANN, the body that regu- possible all kinds of new services, the says Dr Cerf, as he looks back at his re- lates domain names and addresses on operators are now trying to move back markable career. You feel as though you the internet. He describes this as a form towards the old model. If we follow are having some impact on future genera- of penal servitudea reection of the their logic, every time I send you an tions when you are involved in this kind controversy and criticism that has sur- e-mail I will have to pay, he says. Oper- of thing. Most people would probably rounded ICANN from its inception. ators should simply recover their costs be quite happy to retire after having In 2005 Dr Cerf was appointed chief through access fees, he insists. helped to create the communications net- internet evangelist at Google, the latest work for a single planet, but not Dr Cerf. rm to embody the internet Zeitgeist, To innity and beyond At 62, he still feels he has work to do. I where he is once again in his element Plans for internet fast lanes are also a don’t know if I’m going to retire, he says. shaping the future of the internet. I am personal aront to Dr Cerf, since they Being Vint Cerf is fun. I still can’t quite surrounded by some of the smartest peo- could undermine the open architecture believe I get paid for doing this stu. 7 ple I’ve ever met, he says. It’s an amaz- that he has spent his career developing, ing experienceeveryone is about 25, and still continues to promote. In recent Oer to readers running at 900 miles per hour. years Dr Cerf has been working with re- Reprints of this survey are available at a price of At Google, Dr Cerf plays several roles. searchers at America’s space agency, £2.50 plus postage and packing. I’m playing intellectual bumble-bee, NASA, to develop an interplanetary in- A minimum order of ve copies is required. visiting engineering oces, interacting ternet (IPN). (The existing protocol is un- with engineers, trying to nd out what suitable for interplanetary use, because Corporate oer problems they have, helping them nd of the long time delays associated with Customisation options on corporate orders of solutions, he says. He also evaluates communication over such long distances, 500 or more are available. Please contact us to discuss your requirements. new companies or technologies that and also because the topology of the net- Google should be engaged with or even work is in constant ux as planets and Send all orders to: acquiring, and represents Google on spacecraft move around.) This is not as The Rights and Syndication department policy issues. In February he appeared crazy, or hypothetical, as it sounds. Some 26 Red Lion Square before the Senate Commerce Committee of the results of this work have already London WC1R 4HQ in Washington, DC, where internet regu- found their way into the Mars Reconnais- Tel +44 (0)20 7576 8000 lation and the question of network neu- sance Orbiter, a NASA probe that recently Fax +44 (0)20 7576 8492 went into orbit around the red planet. e-mail: [email protected] ...... And the IPN research turns out to have A brief history of the internet: uses on earth as well, says Dr Cerf. Its http://www.isoc.org/internet/history/brief.shtml RFC 675: delay-and-disruption-tolerant network- http://www.faqs.org/rfcs/rfc675.html ing protocol is now being tested by