Multi-party Democracy in the Maldives and the Emerging Security Environment in the Indian Ocean Region Multi-party Democracy in the Maldives and the Emerging Security Environment in the Indian Ocean Region ANAND KUMAR INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES & ANALYSES NEW DELHI PENTAGON PRESS Multi-party Democracy in the Maldives and the Emerging Security Environment in the Indian Ocean Region Anand Kumar First Published in 2016 Copyright © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi ISBN 978-81-8274-895-8 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Published by PENTAGON PRESS 206, Peacock Lane, Shahpur Jat, New Delhi-110049 Phones: 011-64706243, 26491568 Telefax: 011-26490600 email: [email protected] website: www.pentagonpress.in In association with Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, New Delhi-110010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in Printed at Avantika Printers Private Limited. CONTENTS Acknowledgements ix Map of Maldives xi 1. Introduction 1 Methodology 4 Organisation 4 2. The Road to Multi-party Democracy 6 Maldives and the British Suzerainty 6 The First Written Constitution of the Maldives 7 The Second Constitution 8 Establishment of First Republican Government with the Third Constitution 8 The Fourth Constitution Brings Elected Monarchy 10 Establishment of Second Republic with the Fifth Constitution 11 Establishment of Constitutional Assembly by Gayoom 13 The 2008 Constitution 13 3. Multi-party Democracy in the Maldives 15 Presidential Election 2008 15 Onset of Multi-party Democracy 15 The 2009 Parliamentary Elections 17 Emergence of the Political Rivalry 18 Nasheed Gives up ‘Forgive and Forget’ Policy 20 Power Struggle between the President and the Parliament 21 Other Challenges before Nasheed’s Government 23 A Legacy of Financial Crisis 23 Economic Crisis Alienated People 26 vi Multi-party Democracy in the Maldives and the Emerging Security Environment in the IOR Rise of Islamic Fundamentalism 27 Emergence of Religious Extremism in the Maldives 27 Gayoom and the Islamic Extremists 28 Emergence of Extremist Organisations 29 Involvement of Maldivians in Terror Attacks 30 Islamists in Post-Gayoom Era 31 Nasheed’s Government Admits Rising Extremism 33 Extremism Hampered Promotion of Tourism 34 The Unholy Alliance of Islamists and ‘Democrats’ 35 Nasheed’s Lack of Political Abilities 36 Mishandling of the Political Crisis by Nasheed 39 Political Transition or Coup 40 Fumbling of Indian Diplomacy 41 Setback to Multi-party Democracy 41 4. Maldives under Waheed 44 The GMR Controversy 45 Indian Approach to Political Crisis in Maldives 48 5. The Controversial Second Multi-party Elections 50 The 2013 Presidential Elections 51 Use of Institutions to Further Political and Electoral Interests 53 Breaking-up of the Progressive Alliance and Change of Political Scenario 58 Islamists under Abdulla Yameen 60 Yameen’s Suppression of the Opposition and Re-alignment of Political Forces 62 Future of Multi-party Democracy in the Maldives 64 6. Changing Regimes and Maldivian Foreign Policy 68 Maldives and Indian Interests 69 Foreign Policy of the Maldives after Independence (Since 1965) 69 Foreign Policy under Gayoom 71 Foreign Policy under Nasheed 72 Foreign Policy under Waheed 78 Foreign Policy under Abdulla Yameen 79 Implications for India 87 7. Strategic Importance of the Indian Ocean and the Maldives 94 Maritime Challenges in the IOR 97 Protection of SLOCs 98 Piracy 99 Maritime Terrorism 99 Security against Mining 100 The Road to Multi-party Democracy vii Natural Disasters and Oil-related Environmental Disasters 100 Absence of a Unified Trans-Oceanic Community in the IOR 101 Strategic Interests of the Major Indian Ocean Players 103 Indian Interests in the Indian Ocean 105 India’s Sea Power 107 The US Interests in the Indian Ocean 108 Strategic Interests of Australia in the IOR 111 Japan’s Interests in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) 111 China’s Interests and Activities in the Indian Ocean 112 Emergence of Chinese Maritime Security Interests 113 China and the Maritime Silk Route 117 China’s Seabed Mining Forays in the IOR 119 India’s Attempt to Reinvigorate Policy towards the IOR 120 Tri-Nation Maritime Agreement 121 India’s five-fold Framework for Maritime Engagement in the IOR 122 Maldives and Major Powers 124 Changing Dynamics of the Indian Ocean Region 125 8. Maldives and the Great Game in the Indian Ocean Region 131 Maldives and Chinese Strategic Considerations 132 Chinese Quest for Military Bases 133 Maldives Amends Constitution to Enable Foreign Ownership of Land 136 Chinese Military Diplomacy with the Maldives 138 Negotiation of the US-Maldives SOFA Agreement 139 India Striving to Maintain Security Environment of Indian Ocean 145 The Emerging Security Scenario in the IOR 148 9. The Future of Democracy in Maldives and Its Impact on the Security Environment in the Indian Ocean Region 156 APPENDICES Appendix 1: Statement by His Excellency Mohamed Nasheed, President of the Republic of Maldives to the General Debate of the General Assembly 165 Appendix 2: Proposed Agreement between The United States of America and The Republic of Maldives Regarding Status of Forces and Access to and use of Facilities in the Maldives 171 Appendix 3: Outcome Document of the Second NSA-Level Meeting on Trilateral Cooperation on Maritime Security between India, the Maldives and Sri Lanka 179 Appendix 4: Maldives 182 Index 187 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am thankful to a large number of people who have been associated with this book from its inception. Space constraints may not allow me to acknowledge everyone individually. Some of them have also expressed a desire to remain anonymous because of the sensitive nature of their professions. However, a volume of this kind is not possible without the help of colleagues and friends. I would like to express my sincere thanks to Shri Jayant Prasad, Director General, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, for his encouragement and support to bring out this volume. I am also thankful to Brig Rumel Dahiya, SM (Retd), Deputy Director General IDSA, for taking keen interest in the book. He played an important role in bringing out this book in a timely manner. The comments received from the anonymous referees were of great value and helped in improving the quality of the book. I am also grateful to Cdr. Aman Saberwal, a naval officer and colleague at IDSA, for going through two chapters of the book. I sincerely thank my colleagues at the South Asia Centre (IDSA) for their supportive role. Among the people who requested anonymity are intelligence officials, members of the armed forces, senior government officers and human rights activists. I have also interviewed researchers, media persons, government officials, politicians and academicians in the Maldives who don’t wish to be named. The inputs provided by them have been integrated in many places in the book. I would also take this opportunity to thank Vivek Kaushik, Associate Editor at IDSA who put the book through its paces. Special thanks are also due to Ms. Nidhi Pant for copy-editing the manuscript in a x Multi-party Democracy in the Maldives and the Emerging Security Environment in the IOR professional and timely manner. Mr Rajan Arya, Mr Virender Negi and the staff of Pentagon Press also played an important role in publishing this volume on time. My wife Nisha and children Yashi and Shaurya had to bear with my irregular schedules while the book was being written. This book is dedicated to them. I also take this opportunity to remember my uncle late Shri Kapil Deo Rai, who groomed me in my earlier years of life. I hope this volume will contribute to a better understanding of the domestic politics and foreign policy of the Maldives and will also help to understand the great game that is being played in the Indian Ocean Region. ANAND KUMAR 1 INTRODUCTION The Maldivian islands are situated close to the south-western tip of the mainland India. The archipelago nation consists of 1192 islands out of which about 200 hundred are inhabited. The other remaining islands are used either for tourism or agriculture. Maldives is spread over roughly 90,000 square kilometres and is one of the world’s most geographically dispersed countries. It is the smallest south Asian country in both land area and in population. The Maldivian islands have an average ground- level elevation of 1.5 meters above sea level that makes it the lowest country of the planet. Historically, this country has been linked to the Indian subcontinent. The constitution of the Maldives does not recognize any religion other than Islam and all Maldivians are supposed to be Sunni Muslims. Although under nominal Portuguese, Dutch, and British influences after the sixteenth century, Maldivians were left to govern themselves under a long line of Sultans and occasionally Sultanas. The capital city of the Maldives is known as Malé. The islands gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1965, becoming a republic in 1968. Maldives became a member of the United Nation in 1965 and is one of the founding members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). It is also a member of the Commonwealth of Nations, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Non-Aligned Movement. The country has presidential form 2 Multi-party Democracy in the Maldives and the Emerging Security Environment in the IOR of government. The Maldivian economy is dominated by tourism and fishing.