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Who Fires Ministers? a Principal-Agent Approach to Ministerial Deselection

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Who Fires Ministers? a Principal-Agent Approach to Ministerial Deselection Who fires ministers? A principal-agent approach to ministerial deselection Cristina Bucur BA, MA School of Law and Government, Dublin City University Supervisors: Prof. Robert Elgie & Dr. Iain McMenamin September 2013 Dissertation submitted for the award of PhD to Dublin City University Declaration of Work I hereby certify that this material, which I now submit for assessment on the programme of study leading to the award of PhD is entirely my own work, and that I have exercised reasonable care to ensure that the work is original, and does not to the best of my knowledge breach any law of copyright, and has not been taken from the work of others save and to the extent that such work has been cited and acknowledged within the text of my work. Signed: ID: No: Date: ii Acknowledgements Firstly, I would like to acknowledge the support granted by the Irish Research Council between 2009 and 2012 to write this thesis. The financial assistance offered by the School of Law and Government in Dublin City University has also been invaluable, as it allowed me to undergo specialised methods and language training. I am equally grateful for all the encouragement and advice that the Law and Government staff have always generously given me. To my friends in the postgraduate research rooms, thank you for your tolerance, support, and friendship. I am extremely indebted to my supervisors, Professor Robert Elgie and Dr. Iain McMenamin, for their patience, wholehearted support, and excellent supervision. Thank you for setting me on the right track and for getting me where I am today. But most of all, thank you for your unwavering determination to teach me how to do things right. I would have never been able to stand where I am today without the unfaltering support of my family and friends. My husband, Bogdan, has suffered the most. Thank you for putting up with an unthinkable amount of whining, for never allowing me to take a step back and for being there for me every step of the way. I cannot thank my parents, my brother, and my grandparents enough for their incredible faith in me. I am very lucky to have always been supported by a family who has gone to great lengths to allow me pursue my dreams, and for this I will never be able to thank you enough. iii Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................... vii Tables and Figures ................................................................................................... viii List of Tables .......................................................................................... viii List of Figures ........................................................................................... ix List of abbreviations ................................................................................................... x Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1 The puzzle: Why do some ministers keep office longer than others? ................. 2 The argument: ministers are accountable to multiple principals in government and in the party ................................................................................................. 5 Original data ..................................................................................................... 9 The structure of the thesis ................................................................................ 11 Chapter One: The literature on ministerial resignations ........................................ 14 1.1 Ministerial termination events .................................................................. 15 1.2 Individual resignations ............................................................................. 18 The doctrine of ministerial responsibility ................................................. 19 Breaches of collective ministerial responsibility ....................................... 23 1.3 Individual dismissals ................................................................................ 26 One-step demotion strategy: outright dismissal ........................................ 26 Gradual demotion strategy: cabinet reshuffle ............................................ 31 1.4 Patterns of ministerial termination events ................................................. 34 Ministerial resignations and dismissals in Westminster systems ............... 35 Ministerial resignations and dismissals in Western and Eastern Europe .... 37 1.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................... 39 Chapter Two: A principal-agent account of ministerial deselection ...................... 41 2.1 Agency theory in representative democracies ........................................... 42 2.2 Semi-presidentialism and its sub-types ..................................................... 44 2.3 Executive scenarios in semi-presidential sub-types................................... 50 2.4 The interaction of executive scenarios and party politics .......................... 52 2.5 Ministerial deselection, executive scenarios, and party politics ................. 57 2.6 Conclusion ............................................................................................... 60 Chapter Three: Research design .............................................................................. 62 3.1 The comparative method .......................................................................... 62 3.2 The countries selected for examination and the time period under study ... 67 3.3 Quantitative case studies .......................................................................... 72 3.4 Event history analysis .............................................................................. 74 3.5 The dependent variable: the length of ministerial tenure ........................... 77 3.6 The independent variables ........................................................................ 78 Conflicts with presidents, prime ministers, and party principals ............... 78 iv Resignation calls ...................................................................................... 79 Fixed characteristics ................................................................................. 80 Other control variables ............................................................................. 82 3.7 Conclusion ............................................................................................... 83 Chapter Four: Ministerial deselection in France .................................................... 86 4.1 Determinants of ministerial durability in the France ................................. 87 4.2 Party relationships in the French executive ............................................... 93 The president-party relationship in the RPR (1995-2002) ......................... 93 The president-party relationship in the UMP (2007-2012) ........................ 96 The PM-party relationship in the PS (1995-2002)..................................... 98 4.3 The data set on French ministers ............................................................ 100 4.4 Political background of French ministers ............................................... 105 Cabinet experience ................................................................................. 105 Parliamentary experience ....................................................................... 107 Experience in local administration ......................................................... 109 Party experience ..................................................................................... 113 4.5 Fixed characteristics, events, executive scenarios, and ministerial durability in France… ................................................................................................... 115 4.6 Conclusion ............................................................................................. 125 Chapter Five: Ministerial deselection in Portugal ................................................. 127 5.1 Determinants of ministerial durability in Portugal .................................. 128 5.2 Party relationships in the Portuguese executive ...................................... 136 The PM-party relationship in the PSD (2002-2005) ................................ 136 The PM-party relationship in the PS (2005-2009)................................... 139 5.3 The data set on Portuguese ministers ...................................................... 141 5.4 Political background of Portuguese ministers ......................................... 149 Cabinet experience ................................................................................. 149 Parliamentary experience ....................................................................... 150 Experience in local administration ......................................................... 152 Party experience ..................................................................................... 154 5.5 Fixed characteristics, events, and ministerial durability in Portugal ........ 156 5.6 Conclusion ............................................................................................. 164 Chapter Six: Ministerial deselection in Romania .................................................. 166 6.1 Determinants of ministerial durability in Romania ................................. 167 6.2 Party relationships in the Romanian executive ......................................
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