Kelud Volcano Impact Assessment Trip

Eruption: February 2014

Daniel Blake, PhD Candidate (And: Wilson, G. Stewart, C. Craig, H.M. Hayes, J.L. Jenkins, S.F. Wilson, T.M. Horwell, C.J. Andreastuti, S. Daniswara, R. Ferdiwijaya, D. Leonard, G.S. Hendrasto, M. Cronin, S.) Kelud Impact Assessment Trip (Sept 2014)

Field studies, Interviews, Meetings and Discussions Kelud Volcano Kelud Volcano

220 km

Yogyakarta KeludKeludto = 220 km

250 km

Damaging Hazards: ~30 km radially from vent Ashfall: up to 320 km from vent

Field Studies: Ruapehu to South Auckland = 250 km 1. Area close to volcano 2. Yogyakarta (~220 km from Kelud) Kelud Volcano – Before 2014

• Ashfall • – crater lake • Engineering projects since 1919 eruption to reduce crater lake volume

• Activity in 2007 – growth in crater lake and eruption precursors

• Highest alert level for ~1 month but no major explosive eruption

Strong relationships and frequent communication: Volcano observatory Emergency management Infrastructure / lifelines Community Kelud Volcano – Preparedness

• Regular formal training of EM officials & volunteers in all 3 regencies

• Informal community awareness sessions

• JANGKAR Kelud – platform of 2000 disaster risk reduction representatives

“One voice” to save themselves, family and all other residents Strong sense of community spirit

Physical preparedness measures

• Maintaining evacuation routes and bridge repairs • Warning systems 2014 Kelud Eruption - Chronology

02 February, 14:00 • Alert Level 2 (‘Advisory’) – crater lake temp up, volcanic earthquakes

10 February, 16:00 • Alert Level 3 (‘Watch’) – earthquakes increasing, inflation, crater lake temp down • 5 km radius exclusion zone

13 February, 21:15 • Alert Level 4 (‘Warning’) – after high no. of earthquakes • 10 km radius exclusion zone 22:46 • ERUPTION! (large explosion at vent at 23:30)

14 February, 03:00 • Ash fall starts in Yogyakarta (220 km to west) • Volcanic activity at vent decreases 2014 Kelud Eruption - Hazards

• Explosion – heard over 200 km away!

• Pyroclastic density currents – 2 km from vent • Landslides and gullying

• Ballistic bombs – 60 cm length, 3 km from vent • Some hot… fire

• Tephra deposition - up to 160 million m3 (0.5 m 7 km from vent, 5 cm 220 km from vent) • 4 Fatalities

• Rain-induced lahars - damage 35 km from vent Emergency Response

Proximal – near Kelud

• Rapid dissemination of warnings & info • Range of communication methods in place

• Many evacuated quickly (>100,000 evacuees travelling ~4-25 km) • Some delayed or ‘sheltered-in-place’

Distal - Yogyakarta

• Little to no warning – ash came as surprise!

• Disaster management strategies focussed on nearby Merapi volcano

• Ash from Kelud caused more problems than from Merapi (2010) • State of Emergency declared for Yogyakarta following Kelud 2014 Kelud Eruption - Impacts

Proximal and distal impacts

Health – largely respiratory

Buildings – proximal

Transport – aviation, roads, rail

Electricity – distribution, hydro-electric

Water supply – network damage, contamination

Wastewater and stormwater – proximal flooding

Telecommunications – satellite damage, distal

Agriculture – land removal, tephra deposition Transportation Impacts

Aviation (Global)

• NZ$ 26 million damage to Jetstar Airbus A320 (05:00, 14 February)

• 7 Airports closed (4 international)

• Reduced traction • Engine damage • Visibility

Yogyakarta >> • ~1,500 flights cancelled • 2 planes required dismantling Feb 2014 Transportation Impacts

Roads (near Kelud)

• Low visibility during some evacuations

• Destruction / severe damage ~2 km from vent • Roads closed for months • Some road damage ~10 km from vent

• Several accidents upon return

• Two bridges destroyed by lahars ~9 km from vent Transportation Impacts

Roads (Distal - Yogyakarta) • Prompt advice from government • Roads quiet for up to a week

However… • Low visibility and traction …Increased accident rate • Increased policing

Jogya bus company • Two buses out when ash fell • Bus service cancelled for 4 days • 50% of buses days 4-10

• Solar panels to power traffic lights covered Transportation Impacts

Rail (diesel)

• No reports of delays / impacts • Difficult to monitor though!

• Appears resilient • Increased service level at times… Feb 2014

Ash remobilisation

Especially distal areas

• Re-opening of Yogyakarta Airport delayed by a day • Some ash remaining seven months after eruption

Yogyakarta, February 2014 Transportation Clean-up

Proactive and Collaborative Approach

Proximal - Kelud • 2,500 military & police personnel assisted community in

• Material pushed to sides of road – sold for construction (offset clean-up costs)

Distal - Yogyakarta • 2,000 military & police assisted in Yogyakarta • Water tankers deployed • Over 30,000 sacks collected • Not used for other purposes though

Yogyakarta Airport 1. Swept into channels 2. Shovelled out into sacks Feb 2014 3. Brooms and water cannons Key Lessons for New Zealand

Importance of pre-existing relationships and training • High awareness of volcanic warning system, evacuation procedures • Rapid dissemination of accurate information (proximal and distal)

Collaborative and proactive clean-up approach successful • Reduced continued impacts associated with remobilisation • Aided by use of ash for construction and agriculture

Volcanic ash impacts should not be underestimated • Complete surprise to many in Yogyakarta • Little focus on threat compared to other hazards – widespread disruption!

GNS Science Report: Blake et al. (2015) The 2014 eruption of Kelud volcano, : impacts on infrastructure, utilities, agriculture and health, GNS Science Report 2015/15. 139p.

Email: [email protected]