North Uttlesford Garden Community
Socio Economics Retail and Centres Strategy
Prepared by Bidwells North Uttlesford Garden Community Grosvenor NUGC Retail and Centres Strategy March 2018
NORTH UTTLESFORD
GARDEN COMMUNITY RETAIL AND CENTRES STRATEGY NUGC Retail and Centre Strategy
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 3
1.0 Introduction 5 Purpose of the Report 5 Structure of the Report. 6
2.0 Retail Policy Context 7 Introduction 7 National Policies 7 Local Policies 10 Retail Evidence Base 11
3.0 Centre Hierarchy and Context 14 Introduction 14 Role and Catchment 14 Existing Retail Context 15 Existing Shopping Patterns 20
4.0 Retail and Leisure Capacity Assessment 24 Introduction 24 Methodology 25 Catchment Population 26 Convenience Goods Expenditure Capacity 26 Comparison Goods Expenditure Capacity 30 Expenditure Capacity for Service Uses 32 Conclusions on Capacity for Further Floorspace 32
5.0 Qualitative Needs 34 Introduction 34 Deficiencies and Gaps in Existing Retail Provision 34 Consumer Choice and Competition 34 Overtrading, Congestion and Overcrowding of Existing Stores 34 Location Specific Needs 35 Quality of Existing Provision 35 Summary and Conclusions 35
6.0 Conclusions and Recommendations 36 Centres Strategy 36 Local Centre 36 Neighbourhood Centres (Village Hubs) 37 Summary of Recommended Proposed Centre Uses and floorspace 38 Phasing and Implementation 39
Appendix 1 CATCHMENT PLAN
Appendix 2 EXISTING RETAIL AND CENTRES CONTEXT PLAN
Appendix 3 DEVELOPMENT SCHEDULE AND LAND USE SCHEDULE
Appendix 4 POPULATION EXPLANATORY NOTE
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Page ii NUGC Retail and Centre Strategy
Executive Summary Uttlesford District Council (UDC) has allocated North Uttlesford Garden Community (NUGC) within their Regulation 18 Version draft Local Plan (2017) and are working towards the production and publication of a Regulation 19 Draft Local Plan. Grosvenor Britain & Ireland (Grosvenor) on behalf of the landowners is working collaboratively with UDC to support the allocation. Bidwells LLP have been appointed by Grosvenor to prepare this report. It forms both part of the social and economic evidence base in support of the allocation and sets out the Retail and Centres Strategy for NUGC to inform the emerging masterplan proposals.
This Retail and Centres Strategy seeks to consider the requirements for retail and other supporting facilities to meet the shopping and service needs of the new community and create a sustainable new community, minimising the need to travel without significant adverse impacts on the vitality and viability of existing centres within the catchment. The Strategy has been founded on a review of both the extent and nature of existing centres and retail provision within the area along with the planning policy context for the proposals. It has then established the likely retail, service and commercial leisure capacity and qualitative needs arising from the catchment and the potential market demand to inform the development of appropriate retail / centre proposals as part of the emerging scheme.
The nearest town centre within the Catchment area for NUGC is Saffron Walden Town Centre approximately 5 miles to the south of the NUGC Site. This is the only Town or Local Centre within the Catchment area and is currently in good health, although its limited size and range of facilities means that whilst it adequately meets convenience goods and some service needs its role in meeting comparison shopping and some leisure needs is more limited with residents travelling to the higher order centres of Cambridge and, to a lesser extent, Chelmsford to meet such needs. Other centres within the Catchment consist of smaller village centres providing a more limited range of shops and services in Great Chesterford, Sawston, Duxford and Linton.
From the capacity assessment above it is estimated that there would be sufficient capacity to support 2,500 sq. m gross convenience floorspace by 2033 rising to 4,400 sq. m gross by 2047. With regard to comparison goods floorspace, it is estimated that there will be sufficient capacity to accommodate the proposed 1,000 sq. m gross comparison floorspace by 2033 rising to 3,400 sq. m gross by 2047. It is also evident that by 2047 there is likely to be sufficient capacity to support approximately 2,700 sq. m of gross floorspace for uses within classes A2-A5. This level of provision is considered of an appropriate scale to meet local needs and is proportionate to the scale of NUGC.
Draft Policy SP7 within the Regulation 18 Uttlesford Local Plan confirms a requirement for a ‘local centre’ to serve the proposed NUGC. Whilst this will form the principal centre within the new community, given its size and scale it is considered that there will also be a need for a number of smaller neighbourhood centres/ ‘village hubs’ within the site in order to help serve day to day needs and ensure that appropriate facilities are available within walking distance of the entire population. It is therefore proposed that the proposed new garden community will incorporate the following: ● A Local Centre which will form the principle centre within the new community providing the main source of retail and service provision to meet the day to day needs of the new community and its surrounding rural hinterland; ● 3-4 small neighbourhood centres/ village hubs which would form a small parade of shops and services within individual neighbourhoods meeting day-to-day top-up needs of residents.
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It is intended that the proposed Local Centre will be centrally located within NUGC and will provide shopping and community facilities to serve NUGC and the surrounding rural area. It will provide up to 16,500 sq. m of gross floorspace and including a range of facilities such that levels of internalisation and the sustainability of the new community can be maximised without undermining the vitality and viability of higher order centres, particularly Saffron Walden Town Centre. The objective is to create a vibrant place at the heart of the new community with a complementary mix of uses and activities that are mutually supportive, creating activity and footfall and which is a pleasant place for people to be.
The proposed Local Centre is likely to include and be anchored by a new small to mid-size foodstore helping to drive activity and footfall within the centre and supporting its the vitality and viability. The Local Centre would also incorporate a range of other smaller units for shops, service uses, restaurants, cafes, takeaways and a number of community facilities to serve the needs of the new population. A number of small business units would also be incorporated within the centre to meet local employment needs and support the vitality and viability of the centre.
In addition to the proposed Local Centre the new garden community would also incorporate a number of smaller Neighbourhood Centres / Village Hubs in order to ensure all residents have access to day-to-day top-up facilities within walking distance. The proposed Village Hubs will be spread around the development in a manner that ensures that all residents are within approximately 800m of a Village Hub to serve the day-to-day needs of those living within the new community.
It is recommended that each of the Neighbourhood Centres/ Village Hubs should provide approximately 550 sq. m of gross floorspace for a range of shops, cafés and takeaways to meet the day-to-day requirements of each residential neighbourhood along with a primary school and other community meeting space.
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1.0 Introduction
Purpose of the Report
1.1 Uttlesford District Council (UDC) has allocated North Uttlesford Garden Community (NUGC) within their Regulation 18 Version draft Local Plan (2017) and are working towards the production and publication of a Regulation 19 Draft Local Plan. Grosvenor Britain & Ireland (Grosvenor) on behalf of the landowners is working collaboratively with UDC to support the allocation. Bidwells LLP have been appointed by Grosvenor to prepare this report. It forms both part of the social and economic evidence base in support of the allocation and sets out the Retail and Centres Strategy for NUGC to inform the emerging masterplan proposals.
1.2 The North Uttlesford Garden Community proposals envisage the creation of a new sustainable garden community on land in the north of the District to the south of the A11 Trunk Road and north east of the village of Great Chesterford. The NUGC will provide for 5,000 dwellings and associated employment, retail and community facilities, public open space and other supporting infrastructure. Given the size of the proposed new settlement the development will inevitably take a number of decades to be completed. However, in accordance with draft Policy SP7 of the Regulation 18 Draft Uttlesford Local Plan it is envisaged that approximately 1,900 dwellings will be completed by the end of the Plan period to 2033.
1.3 Accordingly, within this context this Retail and Centres Strategy seeks to consider the requirements for retail and other supporting facilities to meet the shopping and service needs of the new community and create a sustainable new community, minimising the need to travel without significant adverse impacts on the vitality and viability of existing centres within the catchment. The Strategy has been founded on a review of both the extent and nature of existing centres and retail provision within the area along with the planning policy context for the proposals. It then goes on to establish the likely retail, service and commercial leisure capacity and qualitative needs arising from the catchment and the potential market demand to inform the development of appropriate retail / centre proposals as part of the emerging scheme.
1.4 The assessment takes account of the key policy tests set out in national policy guidance and is underpinned by robust and up-to-date population and local retail expenditure data derived from the Council's most recent Retail Study.
1.5 This report therefore considers the potential need for retail development and other town centre uses which could be provided as part of the NUGC. It is intended that this will help to inform the development of the masterplan for the site including the appropriate scale and nature of retail and other town centre uses as part of the scheme in order to support the delivery of a sustainable new garden community.
1.6 The report should also be read in conjunction with the sperate Community Infrastructure and Employment Strategy documents. These documents consider the appropriate level of community infrastructure and employment provision to be provided within NUGC. However, given that many of these uses will be accommodated within the proposed centres within NUGC, the overall implications in terms of provision of uses within the NUGC Local and Neighbourhood centres is nonetheless addressed within the conclusions set out in Section 8 of this report.
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Structure of the Report.
1.7 This report is set out as follows: ● Chapter 2 explains the retail planning policy context and latest retail and town centres evidence base; ● Chapter 3 reviews the centre hierarchy and retail context within North Uttlesford and the surrounding area; ● Chapter 4 considers the capacity and quantitative need for retail and other town centre uses to meet the needs of the future residents of NUGC; ● Chapter 5 considers the qualitative retail, service and leisure needs of NUGC; ● Chapter 6 provides conclusions and recommendations in relation to the retail and centre strategy for the emerging NUGC proposals.
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2.0 Retail Policy Context
Introduction
2.1 This section describes the planning policy context specifically in relation to retail and other town centre uses. This will ultimately set the context within which the centre proposals as part of NUGC and associated town centre uses will be developed and considered. They are therefore a useful starting point in determining an appropriate retail and centre strategy for NUGC.
2.2 Uttlesford District Council is in the process of producing a New Local Plan. This is currently at an early stage of development but nonetheless provides important context to these proposals. Government guidance contained in the National Planning Policy Framework is also a material consideration.
2.3 Relevant National and Local Planning policies of relevance are considered below.
National Policies
National Planning Policy Framework
2.4 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published by the Government in March 2012 and replaces all previous Planning Policy Statements and Planning Policy Guidance Notes. Whilst the Government has recently published proposed changes to the NPPF for consultation, the revised document does not make any material changes to policies in relation to town centres.
2.5 At the heart of the National Planning Policy Framework is a ‘presumption in favour of sustainable development’ which it advises should be seen as a 'golden thread' running through both plan- making and decision taking. This requires local planning authorities to positively seek opportunities to meet the development needs of their area. Local Plans are required to meet objectively assessed needs with sufficient flexibility to adapt to rapid change unless the adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits or if specific policies in the Framework indicate development should be restricted (Paragraph 14).
2.6 The overarching emphasis of the NPPF is on the importance of supporting growth and economic development. Local planning authorities are required to 'proactively drive and support' sustainable economic development to deliver the homes, business and industrial units, infrastructure and thriving local places that the country needs. It emphasises that 'every effort should be made objectively to identify and then meet the housing, business and other development needs of their area and respond positively to wider opportunities for growth' (Paragraph 17).
2.7 Accordingly, the document confirms that the planning system should help to build a strong and competitive economy securing economic growth, creating jobs and prosperity, building on the country's inherent strengths and responding to global competition. Removing obstacles to business investment is a core theme running throughout the NPPF which emphasises that the planning system should encourage and not act as an impediment to economic growth. It confirms that significant weight should be placed on the need to support economic growth (Paragraph 19).
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2.8 With specific regard to planning for town centres the NPPF confirms the Government's 'town centre first' policy approach whereby new retail, leisure, office and cultural facilities should be focused in existing centres as the most accessible locations by public transport and therefore the most sustainable locations for development. The overall objective is to promote the vitality and viability of town centres as important places for communities.
2.9 Accordingly, Paragraph 23 of the NPPF emphasises that planning policies should be positive, promote competitive town centre environments and set out policies for the management and growth of centres over the plan period. In drawing up Local Plans, local planning authorities should: ● Recognise town centres as the heart of their communities and pursue policies to support their viability and vitality; ● Define a network and hierarchy of centres that is resilient to anticipated future economic changes; ● Define the extent of town centres and primary shopping areas, based on a clear definition of primary and secondary frontages in designated centres, and set policies that make clear which uses will be permitted in such locations; ● Promote competitive town centres that provide customer choice and a diverse retail offer and which reflect the individuality of town centres; ● Allocate a range of suitable sites to fully meet the scale and type of retail, leisure, commercial, office, tourism, cultural, community and residential development needed in town centres and ensure that the needs for retail, leisure, office and other main town centre uses are not compromised by limited site availability; ● Allocate appropriate edge of centre sites for main town centre uses that are well connected to the town centre where suitable and viable town centre sites are not available. If sufficient edge of centre sites cannot be identified, set policies for meeting the identified needs in other accessible locations that are well connected to the town centre; ● Set policies for the consideration of proposals for main town centre uses which cannot be accommodated in or adjacent to town centres;
2.10 This introduces a challenge for local authorities to maximise central opportunities. Where town centres are in decline, Paragraph 23 expects local planning authorities to plan positively within their Local Plan for their future to encourage economic activity and to support their viability and vitality.
2.11 In accordance with previous policies, the NPPF confirms that Local planning authorities should continue to apply a sequential test to proposals for main town centre uses that are not in an existing centre and are not in accordance with an up-to-date Local Plan. As such the first preference should be for proposals for main town centre uses to be located in town centres first, then in edge of centre locations and only if suitable sites are not available should out of centre sites be considered. When considering edge of centre and out of centre proposals, preference should be given to accessible sites that are well connected to the town centre. In applying the sequential test, applicants and local planning authorities are required to demonstrate flexibility on issues such as format and scale (Paragraph 24).
2.12 The NPPF continues to require an impact assessment for applications for retail, leisure and office development outside of town centres, which are not in accordance with an up-to-date Local Plan,
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for developments over 2,500 sq. m or any locally set threshold. This should include an assessment of: ● The impact of the proposal on existing, committed and planned public and private investment in a centre or centres in the catchment area of the proposal; and, ● The impact of the proposal on town centre vitality and viability, including local consumer choice and trade in the town centre and wider area, up to five years from the time the application is made. For major schemes where the full impact will not be realised in five years, the impact should also be assessed up to ten years from the time the application is made.
2.13 Paragraph 27 of the NPPF goes on to advise that where an application fails to satisfy the sequential test or is likely to have significant adverse impact on one or more of the above factors, it should be refused.
Planning Policy Guidance
2.14 In March 2014 the Government published the Planning Practice Guidance (PPG). The PPG provides further guidance on and support to the policies contained within the NPPF. The PPG is a web-based resource, which will be actively managed by the DCLG in order to allow for any necessary updates to be issued as soon as possible. The guidance is a "live document" and will continue to be subject to a regular review process.
2.15 Matters associated with town centre uses are set out in the section 'Ensuring the vitality of town centres'. This section states that a positive vision or strategy for town centres, articulated through the Local Plan, is key to ensuring successful town centres, which enable sustainable economic growth and provide a wider range of social and environmental benefits. It also states that any strategy should be based on evidence of the current state of town centres and opportunities to meet development needs and support their viability and vitality.
2.16 Strategies should also identify changes in the hierarchy of town centres, including where a town centre is in decline. In these cases, strategies should seek to manage decline positively to encourage economic activity and achieve an appropriate mix of uses commensurate with a realistic future for that town centre.
2.17 The emerging Local Plan identifies the requirement for the provision of a new local centre as part of the North Uttlesford Garden Community. In order to understand what this means, we have had regard to Planning Policy Statement 4 - Planning for Sustainable Economic Growth which was cancelled upon publication of the NPPF. Annex B of the PPS provided a useful definition on the town centre typologies. This is summarised in Table 2.1 below.
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Table 2.1: PPS4 Centre Typologies
TYPE MAIN CHARACTERISTICS City City centres are the highest level of centre identified in development plans. In terms of hierarchies, they will often be a regional centre and will serve a wide catchment. The centre may be very large, embracing a wide range of activities and may be distinguished by areas which may perform different main functions. Planning for the future of such areas can be achieved successfully through the use of area action plans, with masterplans or development briefs for particular sites. Town Town centres will usually be the second level of centres after city centres and, in many cases, they will be the principal centre or centres in a local authority’s area. In rural areas they are likely to be market towns and other centres of similar size and role which function as important service centres, providing a range of facilities and services for extensive rural catchment areas. In planning the future of town centres, local planning authorities should consider the function of different parts of the centre and how these contribute to its overall vitality and viability. District District Centres will usually comprise groups of shops often containing at least one supermarket or superstore, and a range of non-retail services, such as banks, building societies and restaurants, as well as local public facilities such as a library. Local Local centres include a range of small shops of a local nature, serving a small catchment. Typically, local centres might include, amongst other shops, a small supermarket, a newsagent, a sub-post office and a pharmacy. Other facilities could include a hot-food takeaway and launderette.
2.18 Despite the identification of the provision of a ‘local centre’ within draft Policy SP7 of the emerging Local Plan, it is considered that the main centre within NUGC is more likely to be comparable in scale and nature to a district centre based on the above typologies given the role it needs to perform and the range of shops, services and community facilities in needs to provide to ensure a sustainable new settlement with good levels of internalisation.
Local Policies
Regulation 18 Draft Local Plan
2.19 Policy RET1 of the Regulation 18 Draft Local Plan supports the provision of new retail, employment, leisure and cultural uses in the town and local centres within the District’s Centre Hierarchy. In order to ensure the vitality and viability of the District’s existing town and local centres the Policy requires that the location and scale of development is consistent with the centre hierarchy with larger scale development focussed on the town centres of Saffron Walden and Great Dunmow.
2.20 With specific regard to new retail floorspace, this will be supported where it is directly consistent with identified need. Based on the findings of the Council’s Retail Study 2016, the Policy identifies capacity for a small to medium sized foodstore in both Saffron Walden and Great Dunmow by 2026 to meet convenience goods retail needs. Similarly, the policy identifies
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capacity for an additional 5,000 sq. m net of comparison goods floorspace in Saffron Walden by 2026.
2.21 The Policy goes on to confirm that the type and scale of retail development within the new garden communities, including North Uttlesford, should be commensurate with their scale and will be determined through the masterplanning process. Nonetheless, the draft Policy requires that new retail development is first provided in the existing town centres with a preference to preserve their vitality and viability.
2.22 In this context, the supporting text to the draft Policy at Paragraph 6.17 confirms that the new local centres within the new garden communities will be key to providing for the day-to-day needs of the new garden communities, providing top-up shopping and access to services and facilities as well as social interaction. It highlights that these centres will be particularly important for people who are less able to travel to the towns within the District and beyond. It is emphasised that it is important that the local centres ultimately provide the type and range of retail and commercial uses necessary to serve and support the new communities.
2.23 Draft Policy SP5 of the Regulation 18 Draft Uttlesford Local Plan (2017) requires that the new garden communities, including NUGC should accord with garden city principles and demonstrate a high level of self-containment.
2.24 Based on these principles, draft Policy SP7 of the Regulation 18 Draft Uttlesford Local Plan (2017) requires that the new garden community in North Uttlesford will include a new local centre incorporating a mix of retail, business and community uses (including A1, A2, A3, A4, A5, B1a, D1 and D2 uses).
2.25 With specific regard to community uses, the draft Policy specifically identifies requirements for the provision of four primary schools, a secondary school, early years and childcare facilities, health care facilities and community and youth centres. Many of these are likely to be accommodated within the centres within NUGC. The extent and nature of such provision is considered in detail within the Community Infrastructure Strategy whilst the Employment Strategy considers employment needs in further detail. The overall implications in terms of provision of uses within the NUGC Local and Neighbourhood centres is nonetheless addressed within the conclusions set out in Section 8 of this report.
Retail Evidence Base
2.26 Uttlesford District Council commissioned Savills to undertake a study of the retail and commercial leisure needs for Uttlesford Disatrict over the Local Plan period to 2033. The Uttlesford Retail Study 2016) (Hereafter the URS 2016) is being used to inform and support the Local Plan by determining the need for further retail and commercial leisure development within the District and well as guide and influence emerging retail policies.
2.27 The URS 2016 sets out where residents in the District are currently undertaking their spending on convenience, comparison and leisure goods and establishes how much is spent at the various stores and centres in the District and how much 'leaks' to destinations outside the District. It also establishes the extent of growth in spending on retail and leisure goods during the plan period and projects the future requirements for additional floorspace within the District.
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2.28 The findings of this study were informed by a household telephone survey of shopping and leisure patterns undertaken by NEMS Market Research during March and April 2016.
2.29 The quantitative need (capacity) forecasts for further comparison and convenience goods retail floorspace in the District over the Plan period were as follows:
Table 2.2: Retail Floorspace Capacity for Saffron Walden 2016-2033
2016 2021 2026 2031 2033 Convenience 5.13 10.74 17.97 25.33 28.04 Goods Expenditure Capacity (£m) Convenience 417 851 1,390 1,910 2,063 goods Floorspace Requirement (m2 net) Comparison goods 55.24 67.50 89.51 103.34 112.35 Expenditure Capacity (£m) Comparison 1,811 3,123 5,654 6,670 7,487 goods Floorspace Requirement (m2 net)
2.30 A subsequent Addendum note to the URS 2016 (Appendix 9 to the URS) went on to specifically consider the extent of potential retail floorspace which could be provided up to support the development of the new garden communities being proposed within the District as part of the emerging Local Plan. As part of this subsequent assessment, Savills considered a number of the potential development scenarios that were being considered by UDC at that time. Of these, Development Scenario A/E (i) specifically included a potential new settlement in North Uttlesford. Of circa 2,250 dwellings over the Plan period. As part of this scenario, convenience and comparison goods retail floorspace requirements for Saffron Walden were reallocated to North Uttlesford on a proportionate basis (a ratio of 36% to reflect the proportion of housing growth to be provided within the new settlements). As a result, on this basis, the Addendum suggests the following potential floorspace requirements:
Table 2.3: Retail Floorspace requirements for North Uttlesford 2016-2033
TOTAL CAPACITY TO REALLOCATED CAPACITY 2033 (NET M2) FOR NUGC BASED ON 2,250 DWELLINGS (NET M2) Convenience goods (m2 net) 3,881 699 Comparison goods (m2 net) 5,994 1,079 TOTAL RETAIL FLOORSPACE 9,875 1,778
2.31 On this basis, the Addendum goes on to conclude that this suggests capacity for a new top-up foodstore to be provided towards the end of the Plan Period is therefore likely to be viable and sustainable as a result of expenditure arising from the new population generated by the housing. It also suggests that whilst there is theoretical capacity for new comparison floorspace to be
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provided this may not be commercially viable due to the need for critical mass for comparison retail to function effectively.
2.32 It should be noted however, that this assessment is based on needs and floorspace requirements up to the end of the Plan period in 2033 and based on the development of 2,250 dwellings only. Given that the proposed NUGC will ultimately provide for 5,000 dwellings and continue to be completed well beyond 2033, there is a need to consider retail and commercial leisure floorspace requirements beyond this. In addition, the assessment does not fully reflect the latest position in terms of the proposed Housing Requirement for the Plan period whilst population and retail expenditure growth projections have also changed in the interim. The capacity for further retail and commercial leisure floorspace at NUGC is therefore considered further in Section 4.
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3.0 Centre Hierarchy and Context
Introduction
3.1 This section considers the existing retail and centres context within Uttlesford and neighbouring South Cambridgeshire in order to help understand the existing retail provision within the North Uttlesford area and the context within which any new centres serving the new Garden Community will operate. This is one factor that will then help to inform the appropriate scale and composition of the proposed centres with NUGC. These considerations are therefore explored below.
Role and Catchment
Role
3.2 It is intended that the new Local Centre and facilities within NUGC will be developed to fit in with the existing District retail and centre hierarchy. The intention is for NUGC to be sustainable, retaining a good proportion of food shopping trips and providing a range of services and facilities to meet the day-to-day needs of residents. In addition, the centre will to a lesser extent perform a complementary and subsidiary role in meeting ongoing needs for residents within the immediate rural hinterland around NUGC.
Catchment Area
3.3 The catchment area for this proposal is the area from which the Local Centre is likely to draw most of its trade and within which a significant proportion of the population will look to the Centre to carry out its day to day shopping activities. The extent of any particular catchment will vary according to factors such as the role of the centre within the hierarchy, the nature of the settlement involved (catchment areas associated with market towns will generally be wider than those within or in close proximity to the built up areas of larger towns or cities); the prominence and accessibility of the site in relation to the main road network and to public transport provision; physical barriers to vehicle movement and the location of other existing centres and retail stores.
3.4 In this case, the turnover of the proposed Local Centre is expected to be predominantly derived from residents and employees within NUGC itself since this is where the proposed Local Centre is intended to primarily serve. This forms the Primary Catchment Area for the proposed NUGC centres. However, given the proximity and accessibility of the site to surrounding villages the Local Centre is likely to draw some trade from the wider area particularly those areas within walking and cycling distance, along with potential pass-by trips. Accordingly, a Secondary Catchment Area has been defined based on Zones 1a and part of Zone 4 within the Uttlesford Retail Study Update 2016. It is expected that the NUGV centres would draw a limited element of trade from this Secondary Catchment. A plan detailing the retail and service catchment for NUGC is enclosed at Appendix 1.
3.5 This catchment is considered to be realistic and well-related to the role and function of the proposed Local Centre and is also reflective of existing shopping patterns and trade draw within the local area.
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Existing Retail Context
Existing Centre Hierarchy
3.6 The centre hierarchy for the District is established in Policy RET1 of the regulation 18 Draft Local Plan (2017). The main centres within the District are Saffron Walden Town Centre and Great Dunmow Town Centre. The other centres identified are the smaller Local Centres of Stansted Mountfitchet and Thaxted. In addition, draft Policy RET1 identifies the proposed centres at the new garden communities including NUGC as proposed Local Centres. The District’s centre hierarchy is detailed in Table 3.1 below.
Table 3.1: Uttlesford’s Centre Hierarchy
CENTRE LEVEL / TYPE LOCATION POPULATION Town Centre Saffron Walden 14,313 Great Dunmow 8,830 Local Centres Stansted Mountfitchet 6,011 Thaxted 2,845 Proposed Local Centres within North Uttlesford 0 (13,566 forecast) new Garden Communities Easton Park 0 West of Braintree 0
3.7 The District’s centre hierarchy is also influenced by the higher order centres of Cambridge to the north and to a lesser extent Chelmsford to the south west which are large regional centres and have catchments which extend beyond the local level. Whilst smaller, due to their proximity, Haverhill, Bishops Stortford and Royston also influence the catchment as a destination for comparison and, to a lesser extent, convenience shopping.
3.8 The nearest town centre within the Catchment area for the proposed Local Centre is Saffron Walden Town Centre approximately 5 miles to the south of the NUGC Site. This is the only Town or Local Centre within the Catchment area with the Catchment otherwise consisting of smaller village centres providing a range of smaller shops and services in Great Chesterford, Sawston, Duxford and Linton. The existing hierarchy of settlements within the catchment area is set out in Table 3.2 below. Further detail is provided in the Retail Context Plan attached at Appendix 2.
Table 3.2: Existing Centres in Catchment
SETTLEMENT CLASSIFICATION / STATUS POPULATION (2011) Saffron Walden Town 14,313 Sawston Rural Centre 7,145 Linton Minor Rural Centre 4,525 Duxford Group Village 2,099 Great Chesterford Key Village 1,494
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3.9 In order to understand the current vitality and viability of Saffron Walden Town Centre and the other existing centres within the catchment we have undertaken a review based on the indicators set out in the 'Ensuring the Vitality of Town Centres' within the NPPG. This analysis, which draws on our own surveys and data sources, and other specialist databases, provides a basis for understanding the existing retail context and issues and how any proposals should respond to this context.
Saffron Walden Town Centre
3.10 Saffron Walden is a small historic market town located approximately 4 miles to the south of the site. The Town Centre and is the largest of the District's town centres and as such is the principal centre within the District for resident’s shopping and service needs.
3.11 The Town Centre is located to the east of the High Street and is bounded by Church Street to the north, George Street to the south and Castle Hill to the east. The Primary Shopping Area is focussed around the pedestrianised King Street and Market Street/ Market Hill.
3.12 The vitality and viability of Saffron Walden Town Centre is examined within the URS 2016 and the URS 2014 both produced by Savills. The studies include an extensive review of the health of the Town Centre against the full range of health check indicators listed within the National Planning Practice Guidance.
3.13 In respect of the performance of Saffron Walden Town Centre the Retail Studies concluded that the Town Centre exhibits good economic health and is a vital and viable town centre relative to the size of the town. More specifically they confirmed a number of important findings including: ● Saffron Walden Town Centre is the largest centre in the District; ● Saffron Walden Town Centre has a relatively wide range of comparison and service shops for a centre of its size; ● There is a limited range of convenience traders serving day to day needs. Convenience facilities include a Waitrose supermarket and various newsagents and grocers; ● Saffron Walden includes a wide range of comparison shops for a centre of its size serving a range of shopping needs. A high proportion of comparison traders are fashion outlets; ● There are only a small number of national multiple retailers including Boots and WHSmith with the majority of retailers being independent retailers.; ● Saffron Walden has an extensive service offer comprising banks, financial and other services, with a wide range of restaurants and public houses; ● Saffron Walden Town Centre had a vacancy rate of 5% in 2016, significantly below the national average; and ● There is interest and demand from both retailers and shoppers for expanded and improved facilities.
3.14 The whole of the Town Centre is located within a conservation area and a number of the buildings within it are listed. The historic nature of the town means that development opportunities are limited.
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3.15 The retail composition and diversity of uses within Saffron Walden Town Centre was surveyed by GOAD in January 2016 and is summarised in Tables 3.3 and 3.4 below. It is evident that Saffron Walden has a reasonably diverse retail offer relative to its size and function. It is also notable that the vacancy rate appears reported by Experian Goad is noticeably higher than recorded in the Council’s Retail Study despite both dating from 2016. This is likely to be due to the GOAD survey covering a slightly wider area encompassing more fringe retail areas.
Table 3.3: Saffron Walden Town Centre Retail Composition - Outlets
CATEGORY NUMBER OF PERCENTAGE NATIONAL OUTLETS OF TOTAL AVERAGE A1 Comparison Retail 91 41.0% 31.0% A1 Convenience Retail 12 5.4% 8.8% A1 Retail Services 31 14.0% 14.5% A2 Service 27 12.2% 10.3% A3 Restaurant / Cafes 20 9.0% 9.3% A4 Pubs / Bars 6 2.7% 5.2% A5 Takeaways 6 2.7% 5.8% Other 4 1.8% 3.7% Vacant 25 11.3% 11.2% TOTAL 222 100% 100%
Table 3.4: Saffron Walden Town Centre Retail Composition - Floorspace
CATEGORY FLOORSPACE PERCENTAGE NATIONAL OF TOTAL AVERAGE A1 Comparison Retail 11,167 40.0% 34.8% A1 Convenience Retail 2,787 10.0% 15.12% A1 Retail Services 2,295 8.2% 6.8% A2 Service 4,292 15.4% 7.7% A3 Restaurant / Cafes 2,573 9.2% 6.7% A4 Pubs / Bars 1,273 4.6% 7.1% A5 Takeaways 474 1.7% 2.8% Other 1,013 3.6% 9.4% Vacant 2,025 7.3% 9.8% TOTAL 27,898 100% 100%
3.16 The survey confirms that Saffron Walden has a particularly high proportion of comparison shops compared to the National average and a relatively high proportion of retail service outlets. Conversely, the centre has a below average proportion of convenience shops and to a lesser extent pubs, bars and takeaway outlets. Most of the Experian Goad comparison goods categories are represented within the Town Centre, although the choice of units within some categories is limited. There is a particularly good choice of clothing/footwear shops. The proportion of charity shops is also higher than the national average.
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3.17 In addition to the above, there are a range of non-retail uses including a library, health centre and dental surgeries. Saffron Walden Town Hall which is also located within the Town Centre. A market also operates from the market square twice a week.
3.18 The Town Centre also benefits from a good level of relatively inexpensive parking provision with a number of car parks located within close proximity to the Centre providing a total of over 870 parking spaces.
3.19 In addition, there are a number of out of centre stores within the town including a Tesco and Aldi store, and a Homebase. A number of further retail warehouse units are being constructed at the Granite Retail Park on Thaxted Road.
Sawston Village Centre
3.20 The village of Sawston is located approximately 3 miles to the north of the site and is a large village of approximately 7,160 people and 3,040 houses1 located in neighbouring South Cambridgeshire District. The village is classified within both the adopted and emerging Local Plan for the District as a Rural Centre and is therefore regarded as one of the most sustainable villages in the District with a relatively extensive level of service provision to serve the village and its surrounding rural hinterland.
3.21 The Village provides a range of local shopping and services which are mainly focussed on the High Street which provides the main linear route through the village. The nature of the facilities within Sawston Village Centre is detailed in Table 3.5 below.
Table 3.5: Sawston Village Centre Retail Composition - Outlets
CATEGORY NUMBER OF PERCENTAGE NATIONAL OUTLETS OF TOTAL AVERAGE A1 Comparison Retail 10 18.9% 31.0% A1 Convenience Retail 8 15.1% 8.8% A1 Retail Services 13 24.5% 14.5% A2 Service 5 9.4% 10.3% A3 Restaurant / Cafes 5 9.4% 9.3% A4 Pubs / Bars 4 7.5% 5.2% A5 Takeaways 4 7.5% 5.8% Other 3 5.7% 3.7% Vacant 1 1.9% 11.2% TOTAL 53 100% 100% Source: South Cambridgeshire Services and Facilities Study 2014 and Bidwells
1 South Cambridgeshire Services and Facilities Study 2014
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3.22 There are a number of convenience shops serving the village mainly located along the High Street. In particular, a Budgens store of circa 700m2 net sales is located along the High Street. In addition, there are two smaller village stores, a bakery, butcher and fruit and vegetable shop.
3.23 Comparison floorspace is relatively limited with only a few small shops including a number of charity shops, a pharmacy, jewellers and hardware store.
3.24 There are an extensive range of retail and financial service uses including a relatively large number of hair and beauty outlets.
3.25 In addition, there is an extensive range of local services and facilities including a medical centre, dentist surgeries, post office, a temporary library, police and fire stations.
Linton Village Centre
3.26 The village of Linton is located approximately 2 miles to the north east of the site and is a relatively large village located in neighbouring South Cambridgeshire District. The Village had an estimated population in 2012 of 4,530 with 1,870 dwellings.
3.27 The village is classified within both the adopted and emerging Local Plan for the District as a Minor Rural Centre and is therefore regarded as a relatively sustainable village with a relatively good level of service provision. This includes a range of local shopping and services which are mainly focussed on the High Street which provides the main linear route through the village from the A1307 to the west. A breakdown of the facilities by use class within the village centre is detailed in Table 3.6.
Table 3.6: Linton Village Centre Retail Composition - Outlets
CATEGORY NUMBER OF PERCENTAGE NATIONAL OUTLETS OF TOTAL AVERAGE A1 Comparison Retail 5 19.2% 31.0% A1 Convenience Retail 6 23.1% 8.8% A1 Retail Services 8 30.8% 14.5% A2 Service 0 0% 10.3% A3 Restaurant / Cafes 1 3.8% 9.3% A4 Pubs / Bars 3 11.5% 5.2% A5 Takeaways 1 3.8% 5.8% Other 2 7.7% 3.7% Vacant 0 0% 11.2% TOTAL 26 100% 100% Source: South Cambridgeshire Services and Facilities Study 2014
3.28 There are a small number of convenience shops serving the village, mainly located along the High Street including a Co-op convenience store of circa 250m2 gross. In addition, there are two smaller village stores, two bakeries, and a butcher.
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3.29 As expected for a small centre of this nature, comparison floorspace is relatively limited with only a few small shops including a pharmacy, opticians and hardware store.
3.30 In addition, there is an extensive range of local services and facilities including a health centre, dentist surgery, post office, a library, police and fire stations.
Great Chesterford Village Centre
3.31 The village of Great Chesterford is located less than 1 mile to the south west of the site and is the closest settlement to NUGC. The village had a population in 2011 of 1,494 people. Great Chesterford is classified as a Key Village within the emerging Uttlesford Local Plan and, as such, is intended to provide for the day to day needs of residents of the village and its surrounding rural hinterland.
3.32 Despite its classification as a Key Village Great Chesterford has a relatively limited range of shops and currently has only one small convenience shop. In addition, there are 3 comparison shops, 1 retail service shop, 2 pubs and a restaurant.
Existing Shopping Patterns
3.33 The NEMS Household Survey prepared in support of the Council’s 2016 Retail Study provides a comprehensive and relatively up to date picture of shopping patterns within the District.
Existing Convenience Shopping Provision
3.34 The main convenience goods shopping provision within the catchment is located within Saffron Walden which has three main supermarkets – the Waitrose store in the Town Centre along with out-of-centre Tesco store on Radwinter Road and Aldi store on Thaxted Road. Aside from this, provision is limited to a number of small convenience stores within the town and the surrounding villages.
3.35 The Waitrose store in the Town Centre has recently been extended and is a mid-sized supermarket with a sales floorspace of approximately 2,129 sq. m with an adjoining car park. The store includes specialist fish, meet, delicatessen and bakery counters. The store was relatively busy and appears to be trading well as evidenced by the URS 2016.
3.36 In addition to this, further convenience goods provision within the Town Centre is provided by a range of other smaller, more specialised convenience stores such as a health food store, a butcher and a bakery within Saffron Walden Town Centre as would be expected for a centre of this size.
3.37 The out-of-centre Tesco store at Radwinter Road, Saffron Walden is the largest foodstore within the catchment with a sales floorspace of 2,330 sq. m. The store provides a wide range of convenience goods products including specialist fish, meet, delicatessen and bakery counters along with a relatively small comparison goods offer including clothing and electrical items. The store is served by its own dedicated car park providing 378 spaces and a petrol filling station.
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3.38 The Aldi store on Thaxted Road opened relatively recently as part of the Granite Retail Park and is a smaller discount supermarket with a sales floorspace of 1,125 sq. m. It has its own dedicated car park and provides an element of comparison goods floorspace (circa 10%) selling seasonal goods and special offers.
3.39 The existing convenience goods retail provision in the catchment area is summarised in Table 3.7 below. A plan showing the location of these stores is enclosed at Appendix 2.
Table 3.7: Surrounding Convenience Stores
STORE NET SALES FLOORSPACE CONVENIENCE SALES (SQ M) FLOORSPACE (SQ M) Saffron Walden Town Centre Waitrose, Hill Street 2,129 1,916 Costcutter, High Street 354 336 Other Town Centre stores 881 881 Saffron Walden Out of Centre Tesco, Radwinter Road 2,280 2,029 Aldi, Thaxted Road 1,125 1,013 Tesco Express, Pleasant Valley 396 376 Nisa, Cromwell Road 365 347 Other Stores in Catchment Budgens, Sawston 690 656 Co-op, Linton 182 173 Local Store, Great Chesterford 100 95 Other Local Stores in PCA 800 760 CATCHMENT TOTAL 9,302 8,487
3.40 Outside of the catchment area there are a number of large foodstores which also draw trade from the catchment and have an influence over local shopping patterns. Those of most significance include: ● Sainsbury’s Haycocks Road, Haverhill (7,554 sq. m net); ● Tesco Cangle Road, Haverhill (6,239 sq. m net); ● Waitrose, Hauxton Road, Trumpington (2,976 sq. m net); ● Sainsbury's, Brooks Road, Cambridge (4,265 sq. m net); ● Tesco, Yarrow Road, Cambridge (2,458 sq. m net); ● Tesco, Old North Road, Royston (5,040 sq. m net).
Existing Shopping Patterns of Spending
3.41 The household survey was used to identify where residents are currently undertaking their shopping for comparison and convenience goods. The URS 2016 provided an assessment of existing shopping patterns within the District and was informed by a household telephone survey
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undertaken in March and April 2016. The survey provides a detailed analysis of current shopping and leisure patterns within the study area which includes Zone 1a and Zone 4.
3.42 The results demonstrate that Zone 1a which includes Great Chesterford and Saffron Walden has a very high retention rate for convenience goods shopping with nearly 95% of main food shopping and approximately 85% of top-up food shopping undertaken within Saffron Walden. Market shares are dominated by the three main supermarkets within the town with the town Centre Waitrose store having the largest market share of both main food and top-up shopping. The results also highlight that a small proportion of main and top-up food expenditure is leaked to large stores outside the catchment, particularly to stores in Haverhill, Cambridge and Royston.
3.43 For Zone 4 which is largely located within South Cambridgeshire to the north and east of the site, convenience shopping patterns are more diverse reflecting the fact that this is a largely rural area located between the towns of Haverhill, Saffron Walden and Cambridge. It should be noted however, that although Zone 4 within the URS 2016 includes Haverhill we have excluded this from our Zone 4 for the purposes of defining the NUGC catchment.
3.44 The convenience goods market shares of stores serving the catchment area are detailed in Table 3.8 below.
Table 3.8: Convenience Goods Expenditure Market Shares of Stores from Catchment
STORES ZONE 1A MARKET ZONE 4 MARKET SHARE (%) SHARE Zone 1a Stores Waitrose, Hill Street, Saffron Walden 34.23 1.44 Tesco, Radwinter Road, Saffron Walden 28.02 1.79 Aldi Thaxted Road, Saffron Walden 22.66 1.41 Local Stores, Saffron Walden 7.77 0.14 Zone 4 Stores Budgens, High Street, Sawston 0 2.59 Local Stores Great Chesterford 0.29 0 Co-op, High Street, Linton 0.12 1.94 Sainsburys, Haycocks Road, Haverhill 0.82 26.66 Tesco, Cangle Road, Haverhill 0.26 16.40 Aldi, Lords Croft Lane, Haverhill 0.27 17.07 Iceland, High Street, Haverhill 0 5.83 Other Local Stores in Catchment 0 2.51 Retained Market Share of Catchment Stores 95.2 77.8 Stores Outside Catchment Waitrose, Hauxton Road, Trumpington 0 5.82 Tesco Extra, Old North Road, Royston 0.45 2.77 Sainsbury's, Brooks Road, Cambridge 1.12 0.92 Tesco, Yarrow Road, Cambridge 0 2.56 Asda, Coldhams Lane, Cambridge 0.47 1.44
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Other Stores outside the Catchment 2.74 8.72 Market Share of Stores Outside Catchment 4.8 22.2
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4.0 Retail and Leisure Capacity Assessment
Introduction
4.1 As noted above, the Uttlesford Retail Study 2016 and Retail Study Addendum suggested that there was a need for the new retail floorspace within the District over the Plan period to 2033 and that an element of this need should be met within the proposed new Garden Communities, including NUGC.
4.2 In this regard, it was recommended within the Retail Study Addendum that the North Uttlesford Garden Community could support an additional 699 sq. m net (equivalent to circa 1,000 sq. m gross) convenience goods floorspace (based on an average sales density for the main supermarket operators of £12,000 per sq. m) by 2033 and 1,079 sq. m net (circa 1,050 sq. m gross) comparison goods floorspace (based on an average sales density of £6,500 per sq. m).
4.3 However, as noted above, the 2016 Retail Study provides an incomplete picture of the level of retail provision appropriate to support growth at the proposed NUGC since it does not take into account the full scale of growth proposed at NUGC given that this is projected to provide for long term needs beyond the Plan period and the extent to which this will affect the level of capacity arising from the new population. Moreover, this does not take into account other sources of capacity within the NUGC SPA such as overtrading of existing stores and existing expenditure leakage. This underlines the need for further consideration of the capacity for further retail development at NUGC in line with the level of growth proposed.
4.4 A retail capacity assessment has therefore been undertaken in order to establish the potential amount of convenience and comparison goods floorspace along with supporting service and leisure uses that could be accommodated within the proposed Local Centre and neighbourhood centres at NUGC.
Sources of Expenditure Capacity
4.5 The capacity assessment is intended to provide an indication of the potential for the catchment to support additional retail floorspace. In considering the capacity for new retail development the following potential sources have been identified and which are considered as part of this assessment: ● Expenditure generated by the indigenous population of NUGC; ● Growth in available expenditure arising from increases in the population and / or per capita spending within the wider catchment area; ● Overtrading of existing stores relative to their estimated company average turnover levels; ● Outflow or 'leakage' of expenditure from the catchment area to stores elsewhere that could be 'clawed' back by a proposal; and ● Inflow from those visiting from areas outside of the catchment.
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Methodology
4.6 The methodology that we have adopted in calculating the potential capacity for additional convenience and comparison goods floorspace within the catchment is a standard staged approach consistent with general best practice and guidance within the PPG and the Uttlesford Retail Study 2016 produced by Savills. This comprises of the following: ● Identification of the amount of expenditure currently available to shopping facilities within the catchment area, based on population and retail expenditure per capita information supplied by Experian; ● Projection of available expenditure into the future, taking into account population change, growth in average expenditure per capita and forecast changes in shopping patterns based on population projection estimates supplied by Experian and long-term expenditure growth estimates outlined in Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 15, November 2017; ● Identification of all existing and committed retail floor space within the catchment, and calculation of the appropriate ‘benchmark’ or ‘equilibrium’ turnover of existing retail stores based on sales floorspace and relevant company average sales densities for existing floorspace; ● Identification of market shares and likely expenditure inflows and outflows for centres and stores within the catchment (including expenditure leakage) having regard to the distribution of existing centres and stores and associated shopping patterns; ● Identification of stores which are currently under or over-trading relative to company average sales densities; ● Identification of the proportion of available expenditure that will be retained in the catchment area (including any increase in retained expenditure levels through clawback of expenditure leakage) that will be available to support new retail floorspace within the proposed Local and Neighbourhood Centres (calculated by applying expenditure growth to shopping patterns); ● Calculation of available surplus expenditure into potential new floorspace based on assumed average sales densities for new floorspace; and ● Identification of an appropriate mix of different types of retail floorspace in order to meet any quantitative deficiencies in existing provision and ensure an appropriate balance of uses within the Local Centre and Neighbourhood Centres.
Design Years
4.7 The proposed development is not likely to be completed until at least 2047 with the first element of the proposed Local Centre, the foodstore, estimated to be completed and occupied by approximately 1,500 dwelling completions, which is estimated to be reached by 2032. We have therefore adopted 2033 as the Design Year, being the expected first full year of trading following the completion of the foodstore and the first phase of the Local Centre. This also corresponds with the end of the current Local Plan period. We have then sought to assess growth in expenditure capacity through to 2048, the first full year of trading following the projected completion of the proposed development, including the proposed Local Centre, in 2047. It is expected that the proposed development, including the residential properties within NUGC and the units within the Local Centre are expected to be fully occupied by 2047.
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Catchment Population
Existing and Forecast Catchment Population
4.8 In order to establish the likely resident population within the catchment over the lifetime of the proposed NUGC development we have firstly established the forecast population associated with the proposed NUGV. The Assessment also assumes that by 2047 the NUGC development will both be completed and fully occupied. Table 4.1 below sets out the predicted populations of the proposed development over the period based on: ● The latest information in relation to development phasing and housing delivery proposed for NUGC as set out within the Development Schedule enclosed at Appendix 3; ● Our demographic forecasts for NUGC taking account of the above and the indicative housing mix. This indicates an average household size of 2.71 people per dwelling which reflects the high proportion of family housing and research by Cambridgeshire County Council Research Group in relation to new housing developments within the County has highlighted that new developments tend to have a higher than average occupancy ratio.
4.9 We have then sought to establish the existing and forecast population for each of the zones within the Secondary Catchment areas through obtaining Experian local level data for 2016 and 2033 (the design year). Since the Experian projections only extend to 2036 we have then extrapolated these projections through to 2047 when the NUGC development is due to be complete.
4.10 Table 4.1 below summarises the total combined existing and proposed population within the catchment area. Table 4.1: Total Catchment Population
2016 2033 2047 GROWTH Primary Catchment 0 5,529 13,566 13,566 (NUGC) Secondary Catchment 27,884 32,040 35,462 7,578 TOTAL 27,884 37,569 49,018 21,144
Convenience Goods Expenditure Capacity
Available Expenditure
4.11 The level of available expenditure to support new convenience goods retail floorspace is based on first establishing per capita levels of spending for the study area population. Experian’s local consumer expenditure estimates for convenience goods for the catchment area have been obtained. All figures are in 2016 prices.
4.12 Experian’s latest national expenditure projections within their Retail Planner Briefing Note 15 (November 2017) have been used to forecast expenditure growth within the catchment between 2016 and 2047. Appendix 4 sets out the data assumptions that have been used.
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Convenience Goods Expenditure
4.13 Table 4.2 below identifies the average available convenience goods expenditure per person taking account of deductions for special forms of trading in line with recommendations within the Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 15. Table 4.2: Available Convenience Goods Expenditure per Person
2016 2033 2047 Primary Catchment Area £2,212 £2,175 £2,144 Secondary Catchment Area £2,268 £2,230 £2,199
4.14 We have assumed that the new population at NUGC will generate a similar level of per capita expenditure as the neighbouring zones within the Primary catchment area and have therefore used the average per capita expenditure across the five zones to calculate expenditure arising from NUGC. The total available convenience goods expenditure generated by the existing and proposed population within the catchment area is summarised in Table 4.3 below. Table 4.3: Total Available Convenience Goods Expenditure in Catchment (£m)
2016 2033 2047 GROWTH NUGC 0 12.02 29.09 29.09 Secondary Catchment Area 63.24 71.44 75.23 11.99 TOTAL 63.24 83.46 104.32 41.08
4.15 It is evident from the table above that NUGC in isolation would generate additional convenience goods expenditure of £12.02m by 2033 (assuming approximately 1,900 housing completions) and £29.09m on completion of the NUGC development in 2047. This would support a significant amount of new convenience goods retail sales floorspace and, insofar as the proposed foodstore is concerned, based on a sales density of £11,000 per square metre, would be able to support 2,645 sq. m of net convenience floorspace. This demonstrates that the NUGC residents alone are capable of supporting a mid-size foodstore regardless of any spending that would be attracted from other areas.
4.16 However, given the mixed-use nature of the Local Centre and wider development at NUGC, its accessible location in the north of the District close to an extensive rural population to the north and east within equal distance of other town centres and the nature of existing shopping patterns within the wider catchment it is inevitable that the proposed development will also draw trade from a larger area. Moreover, it is intended that the proposed foodstore should act as an anchor to the Local Centre, drawing customers and supporting the vitality and viability of the centre. We have therefore looked at accommodating growth in expenditure capacity within the surrounding rural area (secondary catchment).
Expenditure Capacity 2016-2047
4.17 Clearly no centres or stores trade in isolation and it is therefore unreasonable to assume that all of this expenditure would be retained within NUGC stores. Having regard to existing shopping patterns and the nature of potential provision, we have therefore made assumptions with regard to the proportion of NUGC residents’ and workers’ expenditure (the primary catchment) that would be retained by stores within the proposed Local and Neighbourhood Centres as well as the
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proportion of expenditure from the wider secondary catchment that could be attracted to stores within NUGC.
4.18 Table 4.4 below provides a summary of the available convenience goods expenditure to support new retail floorspace within the proposed Local and Neighbourhood Centres within NUGC based on current levels of retained expenditure. Table 4.4: Summary of Retained Convenience Goods Expenditure (£m)
RETENTION RATE 2033 2047 NUGC 65% 7.82 18.91 Secondary Catchment Area 10% 7.14 7.52 TOTAL 14.96 26.43
4.19 Having established the forecast growth in available expenditure we have sought to refine these estimates to make an allowance for a small amount of inflow from shoppers from outside the catchment who may combine shopping with a trip to the site for another purpose such as those working in the proposed employment areas. This could include pass-by-trade, people visiting local residents and businesses, or employees within the employment areas and other facilities within NUGV who may use the Local Centre but who live outside the catchment area.
4.20 Whilst convenience goods expenditure retention levels within the Catchment Area are relatively high, as noted within the Uttlesford Retail Study 2016, there is nonetheless an element of expenditure leakage with £25.24m being spent in stores outside the catchment. We have therefore estimated this to be 5% of spending is retained in the Local Centre. Table 4.5 sets out the resultant residual expenditure to support new convenience goods floorspace. Table 4.5: Summary of Retained Convenience Goods Expenditure Capacity (£m)
2033 2047 A Total Expenditure Within Catchment 83.46 104.32 B Total Retained Expenditure within Catchment 14.96 26.43 C Inflow 0.75 1.32 D TOTAL TO SUPPORT NEW FLOORSPACE (B+C) 15.71 27.75
4.21 It is evident that by 2033 there is likely to be expenditure capacity to accommodate £15.71 million of expenditure, rising to £27.75 million by 2047. Ultimately, the final levels of retained expenditure will be influenced by the configuration and mix of the Local and Neighbourhood Centres and the nature of the retailers within them.
Convenience Goods Retail Floorspace Requirements
4.22 In order to translate this surplus convenience goods expenditure capacity into convenience goods floorspace requirements we have assumed a turnover for the Local Centre foodstore of £12,000 per sq. m which approximately represents the average sales density of the main supermarket operators including a small allowance for improvements in sales densities. In addition, we have used a sales density of £4,000 per sq. m for smaller stores within the Local and Neighbourhood Centres and assumed that these could take approximately 50% of the top-up food expenditure equivalent to approximately 12.5% of the available expenditure. It has been
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assumed that all of the main food retained expenditure will be spent within the Local Centre foodstore reflecting the different role and function of the store and the intention that the Local Centre would be anchored by a foodstore.
4.23 Accordingly, Tables 4.6 and 4.7 below identify the potential convenience goods floorspace that could be supported in 2033 and 2047 under the different turnover scenarios. In respect of the proposed Local Centre Foodstore, we have assumed a net to gross ratio of 65/35 and a ratio of 75/25 in relation to the other smaller convenience retail units. The proposed foodstore would also have an ancillary element of comparison goods floorspace, which we have assumed to be 10% which would increase the overall size of the store. Table 4.6: Potential Convenience Goods Floorspace Requirements - Foodstore
2033 2047 Total Available Expenditure £m 13.75 24.28 Turnover £/sq m £12,000 £12,000 Convenience Floorspace sq m net. 1,145 2,020 Comparison Floorspace sq. m net 115 200 Local Centre Supermarket sq. m net* 1,260 2,220 Local Centre Supermarket sq. m gross* 1,950 3,400
* Figures rounded
Table 4.7: Potential Convenience Goods Floorspace Requirements – Small Stores
2033 2047 Total Available Expenditure £m 1.96 3.47 Turnover £/sq m £5,000 £4,000 Convenience Floorspace sq m net* 390 695 Convenience Floorspace sq. m gross* 550 1,000
* Figures rounded
4.24 It is evident from the above tables that there is sufficient expenditure capacity to support a foodstore of circa 1,950 sq. m net by 2033 and 3,400 sq. m gross by 2047. Additionally, it is evident that there is sufficient capacity to support smaller convenience retail units within the District and Local Centres of approximately 560 sq. m gross by 2033 and 1,000 sq. m gross by 2047. The potential amount of convenience goods floorspace the Local Centre and Neighbourhood Centres could support is summarised in Table 4.8 below. Table 4.8: Overall Convenience Floorspace Requirements
2033 2047 Total Convenience Goods Floorspace sq. m net. 1,630 2,885 Total Convenience Goods Floorspace sq. m gross. 2,500 4,400
NB: figures include comparison goods sales floorspace within the Local Centre Foodstore.
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Comparison Goods Expenditure Capacity
Comparison Goods Expenditure
4.25 As with convenience goods, the level of available expenditure to support new comparison goods retail floorspace is based on first establishing per capita levels of spending for the study area population. Experian’s local consumer expenditure estimates for comparison goods for the catchment area have been obtained. All figures are in 2016 prices.
4.26 Experian’s latest national expenditure projections within their Retail Planner Briefing Note 15 (November 2017) have been used to forecast expenditure growth within the catchment between 2016 and 2047. Table 4.9 below identifies the available comparison goods expenditure per person again taking account of deductions for special forms of trading in line with recommendations within the Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 15. Table 4.9: Comparison Goods Expenditure per Person
2016 2033 2047 NUGC (Primary Catchment) £3,496 £4,879 £7,084 Secondary Catchment £3,498 £4,881 £7,088
4.27 Again, we have assumed that the new population at NUGC will generate similar levels of per capita comparison goods expenditure as neighbouring zones within the Primary Catchment Area and have therefore used the per capita expenditure for Zone 1a to calculate expenditure arising from NUGC. Table 4.10 below sets out the total available comparison goods expenditure generated by the existing and proposed population within the catchment area. Table 4.10: Total Available Comparison Goods Expenditure in Catchment
2016 2033 2047 GROWTH NUGC (Primary Catchment) 0 26.97 96.11 96.11 Secondary Catchment Area 97.54 156.39 242.52 144.98 TOTAL 97.54 183.36 338.63 241.09
4.28 It is evident that there will be significant growth in comparison goods expenditure capacity during the period 2016-2047 with NUGC alone likely to generate over £96 million of new store-based comparison goods expenditure. Overall expenditure growth within the catchment up to 2047 would be £241.09 million, a proportion of which could support new floorspace both within Saffron Walden Town Centre and, to a far lesser extent, the proposed Local Centre.
Expenditure Capacity 2033-2047
4.29 However, it is acknowledged that, given the nature of comparison goods shopping which requires critical mass and is generally therefore undertaken in higher order centres only a proportion of this would be retained within the catchment. In any event, it would not be appropriate for all of the retained expenditure capacity to support new floorspace within the proposed Local Centre. Instead, the majority of this would support new floorspace within Saffron Walden Town Centre given its status within the District's centre hierarchy and the need for the proposed Local Centre is subordinate and complimentary to the Town Centre in this regard.
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4.30 We have therefore assumed that a much lower proportion of available expenditure will be retained within the Local Centre with no material expenditure retained within the Neighbourhood Centres. This reflects the role and function of the centres and their position in the retail hierarchy. Whilst the Local Centre at least will be of sufficient scale to justify an element of comparison goods, this centre would not offer an extensive range of comparison shopping as would be expected in higher order centres serving a much larger catchment.
4.31 The goods that may typically be purchased from a District or Local Centre account for around 40% of available comparison goods expenditure per person. Nonetheless, we would not expect all of these categories of comparison goods to be represented in the Local Centre and, in any event, would expect that only a proportion of the spending on any of these categories of comparison goods would be spent in the Local Centre. We have therefore assumed that approximately 20% of the comparison goods expenditure generated by residents of NUGC could be retained to support new comparison goods floorspace within the Local Centre, equivalent to half the growth in expenditure of those goods which could be typically traded from such locations. The remaining 80% of comparison goods expenditure generated by NUGC residents would therefore be available to support new floorspace within Saffron Walden Town Centre and other centres.
4.32 In addition, we have also assumed a negligible proportion of the comparison goods expenditure capacity from the remainder of the catchment would be drawn to the Local Centre. No allowance has been made for expenditure inflows or any other sources of capacity as it is assumed these would be negligible for a centre of this scale and nature.
4.33 Accordingly, Table 4.11 below provides a summary of the available comparison goods expenditure to support new retail floorspace within the Catchment including the proposed Local Centre based on forecast expenditure growth to 2047 and our assumed levels of retained expenditure. Table 4.11: Summary of Retained Comparison Goods Expenditure (£m)
RETENTION RATE 2033 2047 NUGV 20% 5.39 19.22 Secondary Catchment Area 1% 1.56 2.43 TOTAL 6.96 21.65
4.34 It is evident that by 2033 there is likely to be expenditure capacity to accommodate £6.96 million of expenditure to support new comparison goods floorspace within NUGC, rising to £21.65 million by 2047.
Comparison Goods Retail Floorspace Requirements
4.35 In determining comparison goods floorspace requirements we have assumed an average sales density of £6,500 per sq. m in 2023 in accordance with the assumptions within the Uttlesford Retail Study 2016 and projected this forward making adjustments for improvements in sales densities. Accordingly, Table 4.12 below identifies the potential comparison goods floorspace that could be supported in 2033 and 2047 based on these average sales densities. We have assumed a net to gross ratio of 75/25 and have deducted the supermarket comparison floorspace from these requirements.
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Table 4.12: Potential Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements
2033 2047 Total Available Expenditure £m 6.96 21.65 Turnover £/sq. m £8,080 £10,958 Local Centre Comparison Floorspace sq. m net 860 1,975 Allowance for Foodstore Comparison Floorspace 115 200 Residual requirement for other comparison 745 1,775 floorspace within Local Centre sq. m net. Other Comparison Floorspace sq. m gross 1,000 2,370
4.36 It is evident from the above table that there is sufficient expenditure capacity to support new comparison floorspace of 860 sq. m net by 2033 and 1,975 sq. m net by 2047. An element of this comparison goods floorspace will be accommodated within the proposed Local Centre foodstore. It has been assumed that this will comprise approximately 10% of the foodstore sales floorspace, equivalent to 200 sq. m net. As a result, it is estimated that there would be residual capacity to support comparison goods floorspace elsewhere within the Local Centre of approximately 1,000 sq. m gross in 2033, rising to 2,370 sq. m gross in 2047.
Expenditure Capacity for Service Uses
A2 Service Uses
4.37 The proposed uses that fall within the A1 non-retail and A2 use classes such as banks, building societies, hairdressers and estate agents are all part of the service economy and are to be provided on a scale that will meet the needs of the local population within NUGC. Accordingly, it is expected that approximately half of the floorspace within Classes A2-A5 will be for service uses with the provision of a number of smaller units. These uses will greatly add to the vitality and viability of the Local Centres helping to draw in custom to the benefit of the centre.
4.38 Our initial capacity estimates and benchmarking against other centres of a similar role and function suggest that the proposed development should accommodate in the region of 700 sq. m gross floorspace for A2 uses.
A3-A5 Uses
4.39 With regard to uses within Classes A3-A5 it is intended that the Local Centre in particular will incorporate a number of small units for the provision of cafes, restaurants, pubs and takeaways. Based on the anticipated population of NUGC and assuming per capita spending of approximately £1,500 in 2033 and £1,753 on 2047 it is expected that the proposed development could support in the region of 750 sq. m gross floorspace for uses within A3/A4/A5 by 2033 rising to 2,000 sq. m gross by 2047.
Conclusions on Capacity for Further Floorspace
4.40 From the capacity assessment above it is evident that there would be sufficient capacity to support 2,500 sq. m gross convenience floorspace by 2033 rising to 4,400 sq. m gross by 2047.
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4.41 Of this, circa 3,400 sq. m net could be provided within a new Foodstore to be provided within the Local Centre by 2047. Nonetheless, it is possible that the Local Centre Foodstore would be brought forward by in 2033 in order to act as an anchor for and support the delivery of the Local Centre. Whilst there would be less capacity to support this level of floorspace at this point, any potential impacts of the proposals need to be considered and balanced against the merits of the early delivery of the Foodstore as a means of helping to anchor and act as the catalyst for the completion of a vital and viable new centre to meet the needs of the new community.
4.42 With regard to comparison goods floorspace, it is evident that there will be sufficient capacity to accommodate the proposed 1,000 sq. m gross comparison floorspace by 2033 rising to 3,400 sq. m gross by 2047.
4.43 It is also evident that by 2047 there is likely to be sufficient capacity to support approximately 2,700 sq. m of gross floorspace for uses within classes A2-A5 within the Local Centre and to a lesser extent, the Neighbourhood Centres. This level of provision is considered of an appropriate scale to meet local needs and is proportionate to the scale of NUGC.
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5.0 Qualitative Needs
Introduction
5.1 The need for new centres to serve the NUGC has been established through the emerging Uttlesford Local Plan Policy SP7. With specific regard to the proposed foodstore, the qualitative need for a new retail food store is generally identified by a number of different factors including retailer demand, existing deficiencies in available properties, accessibility along with customer choice and expectations. Assessing retail needs can be a subjective matter but a number of factors are frequently used to assess qualitative need including: ● Deficiencies or gaps in existing provision; ● Consumer choice and competition; ● Overtrading, congestion and overcrowding of existing stores: ● Location specific needs such as deprived areas and under-served markets; and ● The quality of existing provision.
5.2 Each of these matters is considered in turn below.
Deficiencies and Gaps in Existing Retail Provision
5.3 Whilst there are a relatively good number of convenience stores within Saffron Walden, there is limited retail provision within close proximity to the site, including Great Chesterford which only has a small local shop, although other service provision is more extensive. This is apparent from the plan at Appendix 2 which shows the nature and distribution of convenience retailers in and around the catchment area.
5.4 It is therefore clear that there is a strong qualitative need for the proposed convenience goods floorspace to be provided within the site and for this to include a new foodstore in the longer term to ensure that main-food convenience goods shopping needs can be met on-site, maximising internalisation and sustainable shopping patterns.
Consumer Choice and Competition
5.5 Given the existing deficiency in terms of main food shopping facilities within the area around NUGC, it is considered that it will be necessary to provide for a range of shops, including both range and size and the incorporation of a new foodstore within the proposed ‘Local’ Centre to provide future residents with increased choice in shopping provision in an appropriate location within the local retail hierarchy.
Overtrading, Congestion and Overcrowding of Existing Stores
5.6 The 2016 Uttlesford Retail Study demonstrates that there is no significant over-trading within the catchment and this has not therefore been considered further.
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Location Specific Needs
5.7 Both the proposed Local and Neighbourhood Centres are location specific proposals in that they are to predominantly serve the day to day shopping and service needs of NUGC. To a lesser extent, the proposed Local Centre and foodstore in particular will help to serve the day-to-day needs of residents within the surrounding rural catchment.
5.8 If suitable convenience and other shopping and service facilities are not provided for within the proposed Local and Neighbourhood Centres at NUGC there would be likely to be a high level of travel by car to facilities elsewhere within the Uttlesford and South Cambridgeshire, particularly to Saffron Walden, and there would be a clear deficiency in provision to serve the needs of the new community within NUGC.
5.9 Moreover, there is also a location specific need to attract a retail use and retailer to anchor the proposed Local Centre. In this regard, as is clear from the Centre Typologies within Annexe B of the now superseded PPS4, supermarkets commonly act as anchors to such centres, helping to draw customers and footfall to these centres and thereby enhancing the vitality and viability of the centre overall and supporting smaller stores and uses.
5.10 Indeed, it is considered that a supermarket is the principal and most viable means of appropriately anchoring the Local Centre and that this would also help to secure the delivery of the Local Centre earlier in the development process.
Quality of Existing Provision
5.11 As noted above, the only existing retail provision within the vicinity of the NUGC Site is relatively small and provides a limited range and choice of goods. As such, there is a relatively limited level of provision to specifically serve main-food shopping needs and in some cases this is resulting in residents in the area needing to travel to Saffron Walden to undertake the majority of their food shopping.
5.12 The proposed Local Centre at NUGC will provide a mid-sized foodstore with a net sales area of 1,500 sq. m. Consequently, it is expected that it would be of sufficient size to accommodate a good range of product lines along with specialist counter facilities such as delicatessen and fish / meat counters etc. As such it would be of a type and size which is not currently available within the catchment area.
Summary and Conclusions
5.13 It is therefore considered that there is a clear qualitative need for a reasonable sized foodstore within the proposed Local Centre at NUGC to meet the day-to-day shopping needs of new and existing local residents within the surrounding rural area and improve choice and competition within the area generally.
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6.0 Conclusions and Recommendations
Centres Strategy
6.1 Draft Policy SP7 within the Regulation 18 Uttlesford Local Plan confirms a requirement for a ‘local centre’ to serve the proposed NUGC. Whilst this will form the principal centre within the new community, given its size and scale it is considered that there will also be a need for a number of smaller neighbourhood centres / ‘community hubs’ within the site in order to help serve day to day needs and ensure that appropriate facilities are available within walking distance of the entire population. It is therefore proposed that the new garden community will incorporate the following: ● A Local Centre which will form the principle centre within the new community providing the main source of retail and service provision to meet the day to day needs of the new community and its surrounding rural hinterland; and ● 3-4 small neighbourhood centres / village hubs which would form a small parade of shops, services and community facilities within individual neighbourhoods meeting the daily needs of their residents.
6.2 Based on this approach we set out below our more detailed recommendations for the scale and composition of the proposed centres.
Local Centre
6.3 It is intended that the proposed Local Centre will provide shopping and community facilities to serve NUGC and the surrounding rural area. Whilst the Council has identified that this would be a local centre, it is considered that it is likely to be closer in nature to the district centre typology identified in Table 2.1. This would ensure that the centre will function more effectively in meeting the range of convenience retail and service needs such that levels of internalisation and the sustainability of the new community can be maximised without undermining the vitality and viability of higher order centres, particularly Saffron Walden Town Centre.
6.4 The new Local Centre will be located within a central location within the new garden community in such a way that it serves and is within walking distance of the new residential areas. However, it is also important that it is located on one of the main distributor roads through the site in order that it is prominent and able to benefit from passing trade and high levels of activity that are necessary to ensure it is a vital and vibrant heart of the new community.
6.5 Careful consideration will need to be given to the proposed design to ensure that it helps to foster a pleasant and vibrant environment for people to meet, live, work, shop and pursue leisure activities. The objective should be to create a vibrant place at the heart of the new community with a complementary mix of uses and activities that are mutually supportive, creating activity and footfall and which is a pleasant place for people to be.
6.6 It is recommended that the proposed Local Centre should provide up to 16,500 sq. m (177,540 sq. ft) of gross floorspace including up to: ● 8,400 sq. m gross of uses within classes A1 (shops), A2 (financial and professional services), A3 (restaurants and cafes), A4 (drinking establishments) and A5 (hot food takeaways);
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● 3,250 sq. m for community facilities (Class D1); ● 1,500 sq. m for D2 leisure uses; and ● 3,500 sq. m of small business units / office floorspace / R& D floorspace (Class B1a/b).
6.7 It is considered that the proposed Local Centre should ultimately include and be anchored by a new small to mid-size foodstore of between 2,000 and 3,000m2 gross floorspace. This will ensure that the new garden community is served by a facility of sufficient size such that it is capable of meeting both main food and top-up shopping needs, minimising travel externally and helping to drive activity and footfall within the centre and supporting its vitality and viability. If the retail provision is insufficient and cannot compete with the retail offer elsewhere then it is likely to undermine the vitality and viability of the centre to the detriment of the local community.
6.8 The Local Centre would also incorporate a range of other smaller units for shops (including comparison goods), service uses, restaurants, cafes, takeaways and a number of community facilities to serve the needs of the new population. A number of small business units (Class B1a) would also be incorporated within the centre to meet local employment needs and support the vitality and viability of the centre.
6.9 Based on the scale of floorspace identified above it is recommended that the Local Centre is likely to require a site for approximately 5 hectares.
6.10 Whilst the exact number and size of units and mix of uses within the centre will not be determined until detailed design stage, Table 6.1 below provides a breakdown of the proposed floorspace and the types of uses proposed for the Local Centre and which has been used for the basis of this assessment. The anticipated mix of uses for the proposed Local Centre reflects the typical range and nature of facilities that would be expected in a District/Local Centre intended to meet the day-to-day needs of the new garden community.
Neighbourhood Centres (Village Hubs)
6.11 In addition to the proposed Local Centre referred to above, it is proposed that the new garden community will also incorporate a number of smaller neighbourhood centres / Village Hubs in order to ensure all residents have access to day-to-day top-up facilities within walking distance. The proposed Village Hubs should be spread around the development in a manner that ensures that all residents are within approximately 800m of a Village Hub to serve the day-to-day needs of those living within the new community. The number of neighbourhood centres / shopping parades will ultimately be driven by the masterplan and the different village neighbourhood areas within the new community. However, as a guide, we would recommend 3-4 neighbourhood centres as being appropriate. The details of this should be kept under review as the Masterplan progresses iteratively and as the composition of the centre and services is refined.
6.12 It is recommended that each of the Neighbourhood Centres / Village Hubs should provide approximately 550 sq. m (5,918 sq. ft) of gross floorspace for a range of uses within classes A1 (shops), A2 (financial and professional services), A3 (restaurants and cafés), and A5 (hot food takeaways) to meet the day-to-day requirements of each residential neighbourhood. In addition, the Neighbourhood Centres would provide up to 300 sq. m of floorspace for a community space (Class D1). This could take the form of multi-functional community spaces which providing cafes, meeting spaces and small managed business spaces serving a range of flexible needs.
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6.13 Again, whilst the exact number, size and mix of uses within the proposed centres will not be determined until the detailed design stage, an indicative mix of uses for the proposed Neighbourhood Centres is provided which reflects the typical range and nature of facilities that would be expected of this type of centre intended to meet the day-to-day top-up needs of the local community, particularly those residing within the proposed development. Table 6.1 below sets out the indicative mix which could be appropriate.
Summary of Recommended Proposed Centre Uses and floorspace
6.14 The Indicative floorspace and mix of the proposed centres is set out in the tables below.
Table 6.1: Proposed Floorspace of Local and Neighbourhood Centres (sq. m gross)
CENTRE USES PROPOSED FLOORSPACE (SQUARE METRES TOTAL GROSS) CONVENIENCE COMPARISON A2-A5 OTHER RETAIL (A1) RETAIL (A1) Local Centre Supermarket, 2,800 200 3,000 newsagent, off-licence, (foodstore) (foodstore) (foodstore) baker, butchers, bicycle shop, greengrocer, pet 700 other* 1,800* 2,750* 8,250 13,500 store, hardware store, chemist, hairdressers, Total dry cleaners, betting 16,500 shop, estate agent, bank / building society, hot food takeaway, café, restaurant, pub/ bar etc. Neighbourhood Small convenience 900* 0 750* 900 2,550 Centres / store / newsagents, off (community Village Hubs license, dry cleaners, space) (x3) bakery, hot food takeaway etc. TOTAL 4,400* 2,000* 3,500* 9,150 19,050
* Figures rounded
Table 6.2: Proposed Indicative Mix of Uses for Neighbourhood Centres
FACILITY / USE USE CLASS GROSS FLOORSPACE Newsagent / convenience store A1 150 Bakery / Butcher etc A1 75 Hairdresser A1 75 Café A3 130 Takeaway (x2) A5 120 Community Space D1 300 TOTAL 850
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6.15 Overall, it is considered that providing the scale and mix of uses within the proposed centres remain similar to those suggested above, rather than unbalancing the centre hierarchy and drawing trade from elsewhere, the centres will meet the needs of the proposed development and help to maintain an appropriate balance within the centre hierarchy.
Phasing and Implementation
6.16 Construction of the Proposed Development is currently expected to commence in 2023 and is likely to extend to at least 2047.
6.17 Whilst some of the need for new retail, leisure and services floorspace will be generated by the new population within NUGC, it is also important that new facilities are provided for the new population as early as possible in order to help to foster sustainable new communities. With this in mind, it in intended to bring forward the delivery of the Local Centre as early as practical within the development phase of NUGC. Accordingly, it is intended that the first phase of the Local Centre would be completed by the time of approximately 1,500 dwelling completions, expected to be around 2032. It is intended that the first phase of the Local Centre would incorporate the foodstore in order that this helps to underpin the delivery of the centre and establish it as a vital and viable centre as early as possible through establishing sustainable shopping patterns.
6.18 Whilst the Local Centre is intended for completion by circa 3,000 dwelling completions, this will partly be led by market demand since it may take a number of years for units within the Centre to be fully let and occupied. This is likely to be an on-going process as NUGC is built out but the early delivery of the foodstore is intended to assist with this process.
6.19 It is suggested that construction of the first of the Neighbourhood Centres/ Village Hubs could be provided by the completion of approximately 500 dwellings, currently expected to be in 2027. It is envisaged that the remaining Neighbourhood Centres / Village Hubs would be completed by approximately 3,000, 4,000 and 5,000 dwelling completions. In each case, it is likely to take a further year or so before each centre is fully let and occupied.
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APPENDIX 1 CATCHMENT PLAN
Page | 40 North Uttlesford study area
Fulbourn Legend Grantchester A1134 A603 Trumpington North Uttlesford A1309 1 2 A1301 3 Haslingfield Hauxton Great Shelford A11
Stapleford Little Shelford
A10 Harston Balsham
M11
Barrington Sawston Little Abington
Great Abington Foxton A505 Whittlesford A143 Shepreth
Linton A1307 A505 Duxford Hanchett End Fowlmere A1301 Haverhill Hinxton Hadstock Melbourn
A1017 Ickleton A505
Great Chesterford
Steeple Bumpstead M11
Littlebury Broad Green
Great Chishill Chrishall Barley Saffron Walden
Copyright Experian Ltd, HERE 2017. Ordnance Survey © Crown copyright 2017 NUGC Retail and Centre Strategy
APPENDIX 2 EXISTING RETAIL AND CENTRES CONTEXT PLAN
Page | 41 River Bank Fenstanton 2 Swavesey 131,000m Fen Drayton Rampton Kennett Landwade Cottenham North UttlesfordSnailwell Garden Community Longstanton Burwell Kentford Hilton Conington Reach Retail Context Plan Exning Waterbeach Westwick Landbeach
Papworth St Agnes Higham ® Clayhithe Moulton Oakington Swaffham Prior Gazeley Boxworth Bar Hill 2 Burthorpe Papworth Everard Lolworth 32,000m Elsworth Commercial End Impington NEWMARKET Barrow Milton Swaffham Bulbeck Knapwell Girton Lode Dry Drayton Horningsea Histon Dalham Ashley Denham
Cheveley Dunstall Green Madingley Bottisham Caxton Gibbet !1 Stow cum Quy Chesterton Fen Ditton !2 Broad Green Eltisley !7 Ousden Cambourne Hargrave 6 Woodditton Saxon Street ! Lady's Green Chevington Hardwick CAMBRIDGE!3 Coton Highfields Little Wilbraham Teversham Stetchworth Ditton Green Upend Caxton Dullingham Kirtling Great Wilbraham Lidgate Genesis Green Depden Green Six Mile Bottom Depden Bourn Westley Waterless Caldecote Comberton Cherry Hinton!4 Fulbourn Great Gransden Toft Barton Kirtling Green Grantchester Thorns Little Gransden Burrough Green Kingston Trumpington Longstowe Brinkley Wickhambrook !5 Clopton Green Cowlinge Wickham Street
Great Eversden Weston Colville Little Eversden Great Bradley Carlton Denston Harlton West Wratting Weston Green Stradishall Haslingfield Hauxton Stapleford Great Shelford Little Bradley Stansfield Little Shelford Little Thurlow Hatley St George East Hatley Harston Babraham Balsham Orwell Great Thurlow
Arrington Sawston 2 Wimpole Barrington 13,000m Croydon Newton Little Abington West Wickham Barnardiston Great Abington Hildersham 2 8,000m Hundon Foxton Whittlesford Great Wratting Pampisford Poslingford Shepreth Withersfield Tadlow Wendy Little Wratting Horseheath Linton Chilton Street Shingay Thriplow Whaddon Meldreth Kedington Hanchett End!14 Fowlmere Duxford HAVERHILL Dyer's Green Hinxton !13 Clare Bartlow 1 - Tesco, Cheddars Lane, Cambridge Hadstock Melbourn Kneesworth Shudy Camps 2 - Asda, Behive Centre, Cambridge Abington Pigotts Guilden Morden Bassingbourn 2 Ickleton Sturmer 3 - Sainsburys, Coldhams Lane, Cambridge 6,000m Stoke by Clare Castle Camps 4 - Tesco, Cherry Hinton, Cambridge Chrishall Grange 2 Wixoe Great Chesterford 13,000m Steventon End Camps End Litlington Flint Cross 5 - Waitrose, Trumpington, Cambridge Steeple Morden 2 Ashdon Baythorne End Ashen 5,000m Ovington Little Chesterford 6 - M & S, Sidney Street, Cambridge !9 Helions Bumpstead Little Walden Steeple Bumpstead 7 - Sainsburys, Sidney Street, CambridgeKnowl Green Church End Birdbrook 2 ROYSTON 4,500m 8 - Morrisons, BaldockRidgewell Street, Royston !8 Heydon 9 - Tesco Extra, Old North Road, RoystonTilbury Juxta Clare Strethall Littlebury Ashwell Elmdon Red Oaks Hill 10 - Aldi, Saffron Walden Little Yeldham Chrishall
Great Chishill Stambourne11 - Tesco, Green Saffron Walden Littlebury Green Stambourne Barley !12 !11 Sewards End 12 - Waitrose, Saffron Walden Great Yeldham SAFFRON WALDEN Hempstead 13 - Tesco, Haverhill Shaftenhoe End Pond Street Little Chishill Therfield Radwinter Newsells Bridge Green 14 - Sainsburys, HaverhillToppesfield Legend Duddenhoe End !10 Cornish Hall End Robinhood End Bygrave Wendens Ambo Wimbish Kelshall Reed O.S. Licence No: ES 100017734 This plan is based on Ordnance Survey data with sanction of the controller of HM Stationery Office. Crown Copyright Reserved. North Uttlesford Garden Community (Primary Catchment) Barkway Note: This plan is published for convenience only and although believed to be Gainsford End Castle Hedingham Wimbish Green correct its accuracyGreat is not Sampfordguaranteed and it shall not be deemed to form part of Secondary Catchment Area Langley the contract. Delvin End Nuthampstead Howlett End 2 Arkesden Trumpington Road, Cambridge, CB2 9LD Sandon Lower Green Convenience Floorspace m 01223 841841 - bidwells.co.uk Howe Street Newport Sible Hedingham Wallington Little Sampford 2 Comparison Floorspace m Buckland Scale:1:130,000 @ A3 OS Ref:TL Drawing No: B.14,891 Date: 28/03/2018 Anstey Wicken Bonhunt Debden Produced by Bidwells GIS Mapping - 01223 559288 NUGC Retail and Centre Strategy
APPENDIX 3 DEVELOPMENT SCHEDULE AND LAND USE SCHEDULE
Page | 42 Indicative Housing Mix Based on SHMA
Market Housing (60%) Affordable Housing (40%) All Housing (100%) 1-Bed 2-Bed 3-Bed 4+ Bed Total 1-Bed 2-Bed 3-Bed 4+ Bed Total 1-Bed 2-Bed 3-Bed 4+ Bed Total No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % Houses 0 0.0 205 6.8 1,320 44.0 1,400 46.7 2,925 97.5 0 0.0 750 37.5 920 46.0 180 9.0 1,850 92.5 0 0.0 955 19.1 2,240 44.8 1,580 31.6 4,775 95.5 Flats 50 1.7 25 0.8 0 0.0 0 0.0 75 2.5 100 5.0 50 2.5 0 0.0 0 0.0 150 7.5 150 3.0 75 1.5 0 0.0 0 0.0 225 4.5 Total 50 1.7 230 7.7 1,320 44.0 1,400 46.7 3,000 100.0 100 5.0 800 40.0 920 46.0 180 9.0 2,000 100.0 150 3.0 1,030 20.6 2,240 44.8 1,580 31.6 5,000 100.0
Social Infrastructure Requirements Indicative Distribution of Uses
Standard Population Requirement Source of Guidance Commentary Education Local Centre (5ha + school) Nursery 0.18 FTE 1,122 0-4 201.96 FTE - equates to approximately 2x nurseries of 350m2/0.1ha each + 1 for business park Pre-School & Primary School 2.2 ha Pre-Schools 0.6 FTE 461 3-4 277 FTE - dIDP pg 78 refers to LEA preference for 4x pre-schools, each 0.1ha Nursery 0.1 ha Primary Schools 210 pp/FE 1,532 5-11 7.3 FE - dIDP pg 78 refers to LEA preference for 4x 2FE schools, each 2.1ha GP/Dentist Medical Centre 1,800 m2 Secondary Schools 150 pp/FE 835 5-11 5.6 FE - dIDP pg 78 refers to LEA preference for 1x 7FE schools with sixth form on 9ha. Library 400 m2 Sixth Form 120 pp/FE 264 5-11 2.2 FE - Sixth Form assumes 50% of age cohort attending Community Halls/Venues 750 m2 Healthcare A1 Comparison and Convenience Retail 5,650 m2 General Practitioners (GPs) 2,500 pp/GP 13,566 All 5.4 GPs dIDP pg 86 dIDP pg 22 refers to 950m2 healthcare centre A2 Financial and Professional 1,000 m2 Dentists 3,000 pp/De 13,566 All 4.5 Dentists- dIDP pg 22 refers to 850m2 dental practice A3/4/5 Restaurants etc. 1,750 m2 Open Space and Sport B1 (a/b) 2,500 m2 Natural/Semi-Natural Greenspace 70 m2/pp 13,566 All 94.962 ha dIDP pg 124 Small Business Workspace 2,500 m2 Amenity Greenspace 10 m2/pp 13,566 All 13.566 ha draft Policy INF2 Health and Fitness Centre 1,500 m2 Sports Pitches 12 m2/pp 13,566 All 16.279 ha OSS Based on NPFA standards Neighbourhood Centres / Village Hubs Areas of Play (LAPs/LEAPs/NEAPs) 2 m2/pp 13,566 All 2.71 ha draft Policy INF2 Pre-School & Primary School 2.2 ha Space for Youths 3 m2/pp 13,566 All 4.07 ha dIDP pg 103 based on dIDP pg 106, assumed to equate to 6 MUGAs Nursery 0.1 ha Allotments 2 m2/pp 13,566 All 2.71 ha draft Policy INF2 Community Halls/Venues 300 m2 Swimming pool 19861 /pp 13,566 All 0.68 pools SFDS A1 Comparison and Convenience Retail 250 m2 Health and Fitness Centre 7944 /pp 13,566 All 1.71 centres SFDS based on current usage patterns A2 Financial and Professional 0 m2 Sports Hall 11,349 /pp 13,566 All 1.20 halls dIDP pg 108 A3/4/5 Restaurants etc. 250 m2 Community Secondary School & Sports Hub SFDS suggests 180m2 each but is flexible. Assume 1,620m2 for mixed community Secondary School & Sixth Form 9 ha Community Halls/Venues 1,500 pp/hall 13,566 All 9 halls dIDP pg 96 uses (halls/galleries/meeting places/religious functions etc.) between four local 2x MUGAs 1.36 ha centres Sports Hall 1 hall Libraries ------dIDP pg 22 refers to 400m2 library 4 x Sports Pitches 2.6 ha Distributed in Housing Areas Definitions 2x NEAPs 1.7 ha dIDP Troy Planning, May 2017. Draft Infrastructure Delivery Plan. 2x LEAPs 0.64 ha LAP Local Area of Play, generally small landscaped area for younger children within 5 minute walk from home. Minimum of 400m2 (including buffer). 9x LAPs 0.36 ha LEAP Local Equipped Area for Play, designed for unsupervised play for 4-12 year olds within 10 minute walk from home. Minimum of 3,600m2 (including buffer). 4x MUGA 2.71 ha NEAP Neighbourhood Equipped Area for Play, within 15 minute walk from home, catering for a wide spectrum of users but generally in the 4-14 age group. Minimum of 8,500m 2 (including buffer). Sports Pitches 8.1 ha OSS The Landscape Partnership. January 2012. Uttlesford Open Space, Sports Facility and Playing Pitch Strategy. Allotments 2.71 ha SFDS Ploszajski Lynch Consulting. January 2016. Sports Facilities Development Strategy. Employment Zones (12ha) B1a 6,000 m2 B1b 34,000 m2 B1c 5,000 m2 Mixed B Small Business Space 5,000 m2 B2 2,500 m2 Employment B8 / Sui generis 2,500 m2
Employment Floorspace Sector No. Of Jobs % Floorspace Employment Jobs (30% Use Class Description Yields Conversion Average (FTE) Commentary Retail and Leisure 579 13% (m2 GEA) Yield (FTE) PT) (multipliers) Ratio Business space 1,855 43% A1 Retail (Convenience & Comparison) 6,400 18 NIA 0.80 284 284 370 - Community uses 723 17% A2 Financial & Professional 1,000 16 NIA 0.80 50 50 65 - Home working 1,207 28% A3/4/5 Restaurants etc. 2,500 18 NIA 0.80 111 111 144 - ALL 4,364 100% B1a General Offices 7,500 12 NIA 0.80 500 500 650 - B1b Research and Development 35,000 50 NIA 0.80 560 560 728 Commercial Space B1c Light Industry 5,000 47 NIA 0.80 85 85 111 - Office 650 35% Mix B Small business workspace 7,500 29 NIA 0.80 207 207 269 - Industrial 192 10% B2 Industrial and manufacturing 2,500 36 GIA 0.90 63 63 81 Assumes 6 units at 300-400m2 Research & Development 728 39% B8 / Sui Generis Miscellaneous 2,500 180 GIA 0.90 13 13 16 Employment yield is the highest offered in HCA guidance Small Business Space 269 14% C2 Older Persons Home 1,500 50 GEA 1.00 30 30 39 Sui Generis 16 1% C3 Residential - - - - 1,207 1,207 1,207 15.2% of economically active population ALL 1,855 100% Nursery 1,050 36 GEA 1.00 29 29 38 Pre-School - - - - 39 39 50 All Uses Primary Schools - - - - 214 214 279 7.15 pupils per FTE (DfE School Workforce in England Nursery and pre-school 88 2% Secondary School - - - - 117 117 152 (July 2017)) Primary schools 279 6% Sixth Form - - - 37 37 48 Secondary schools 152 3% D1 GP/Dentist Medical Centre 1,800 35 GEA 1.00 51 51 67 Sixth Form 48 1% Library 400 50 GIA 0.90 7 7 9 Healthcare 67 2% Sports Hall 700 110 GEA 1.00 6 6 8 Sports Health and fitness 26 1% Swimming pool Other community Uses 63 1% Other Community Uses 1,650 130 GIA 0.90 11 11 15 Retail (convenience and comparison) 370 8% D2 Health and Fitness Centre 1,500 110 GEA 1.00 14 14 18 Financial and professional services 65 1% Total Employment delivered by the standards - - - - - 3,635 4,364 Restaurants, pubs etc 144 3% Offices 650 15% Research and Devt 728 17% Light Industry 111 3% Small business workspace 269 6% Industry and manufacturing 81 2% B8 / Sui Generis 16 0% Homeworking 1,207 28% All 4364 100% NUGC Retail and Centre Strategy
APPENDIX 4 POPULATION EXPLANATORY NOTE
Page | 43
ESTIMATING THE RESIDENT POPULATION OF THE NORTH UTTLESFORD GARDEN COMMUNITY
Background To develop a model of the infrastructure needs of a new settlement it is first necessary to determine the profile of its future resident population. For the North Uttlesford Garden Community (NUGC), the resident population has been determined through detailed modelling using the POPGROUP suite of demographic projection models.
POPGROUP was initially used to determine the future housing needs in Uttlesford District during the emerging local plan period of 2011 to 2033, before dividing this between the northern and southern parts of the District1. This determined that there would be a demographic need (i.e. if underlying trends of births, deaths and migration continued to reflect trends seen in the District over the last five years) for 11,900 dwellings over the 22-year period, which equates to 540 dwellings per annum (dpa)2. Further analysis found that this was consistent with economic trends but would lead the housing market continuing to be under significant pressure. As such a 20% uplift to the housing need was made to the demographic-led projection, resulting in a District requirement of 14,280 dwellings, or 649dpa.
Figure 1: Difference between Demographic-Led and Demographic-Led + Housing This need was divided between the Market Signals in North Uttlesford (Dwellings, No.) north and south of the District using long term population trends. Creating sub-district demographic projections is complex and consequently the data was obtained from Edge Analytics who maintain POPGROUP on behalf of the Local Government Association (LGA). This model found that the demographic housing need in the north was 3,250 dwellings (148dpa) and 8,650 dwellings (390dpa) in the south. The 20% uplift required to address existing housing market pressures was divided equally between the north and south as the pressures appear equally significant. This resulted in a total need in the north of 3,900 dwellings (177dpa) and 10,370 dwellings (472dpa) in the south (Figure 1).
Through the process of dividing the housing need between the north and south, it was found that employment growth appeared somewhat stronger in the
1 Bidwells. September 2017. Fully Objectively Assessed Needs – Uttlesford. 2 For the purposes of informing policy, these figures are rounded. All modelling was undertaken using unrounded data.
Page 1 of 12 north than south. This has not been considered in the modelling at this stage as any analysis of future economic trends at the sub-district level is very difficult. However, it does suggest that there might be justification to consider potential for redistributing some additional housing from the south to the north.
Calculating the Residential Population of NUGC Several tasks were required to convert the POPGROUP model used for calculating the overall demographic housing need to a model that could be used to determine the population of NUGC:
● The 20% uplift required to address pressures in the housing market needed to be incorporated into the demographic model. ● Whilst the population at the end date should remain consistent, the trajectory should be adjusted to reflect the anticipated rate of housebuilding at NUGC. ● The duration of the model needed to be extended to encompass the completion of the NUGC.
Incorporating the Uplift for Housing Market Pressure There are two demographic issues that occur because of insufficient housing within a market.
The first is that the existing resident population cannot form new, additional households. This causes increases in overcrowding within the existing housing stock, increases in concealed households, and increases in ‘other households’, such as those with multiple unrelated adults living together. The 2011 Census shows no evidence of significant issues within existing households in Uttlesford with all measures being below the national average.
The second is that households that might reasonably wish to move into the area cannot do so. In such cases the housing demand must be found elsewhere, but inevitably affects affordability in the area as more households are constantly seeking to buy or rent than there are dwellings available. This generally occurs in particularly desirable areas with good employment prospects. This is likely to be the primary issue in Uttlesford.
Figure 2: Difference between Demographic-Led and Demographic-Led + Housing Where the housing pressures are Market Signals Projections in North Uttlesford (Population, No.) affecting migration patterns, there is no
44,000 need to review the household formation rates. Instead, the population 43,000 and households resulting from the uplift 42,000 should simply be added onto the demographic-led projection. 41,000 Consequently, the projection was 40,000 updated assuming household formation rates stayed the same and 39,000 the population would be additional 38,000 (Figure 2).
37,000
36,000
35,000
34,000
Demographic-led + Housing Market Signals Demographic-led
Page 2 of 12 Incorporating the Housing Delivery Rate The projections set out in Figures 1 Figure 3: Difference between Demographic-Led + Housing Market Signals Projection and 2 are linear. In reality, housing and Housing Delivery Based Forecast in North Uttlesford (Population, No.) delivery will not occur in such a 44,000 uniform fashion. Consequently, analysis has been undertaken to 43,000 show how NUGC is likely to be 42,000 delivered within the local plan period and then into the future. This 41,000 confirmed that NUGC is likely to 40,000 deliver approximately 1,900 dwellings between 2023 and 2033, 39,000 which is consistent with the emerging 38,000 local plan. In addition, other housing 37,000 developments are proposed in North Uttlesford and these were distributed 36,000 to best reflect the linear trend 35,000 (Figure 3). 34,000
Demographic-led + Housing Market Signals Housing Delivery Based Forecast
Extending the Timeframe of the Model The analysis of housing delivery rates also concluded that NUGC was likely to be completed in 2047 and consequently the model needed to be extended to reflect this (Figure 4). Unfortunately, the ONS and DCLG 2014-based subnational population projections and household projections only cover the period up to 2037. Whilst for some variables, such as fertility rates, it might be possible to make reasonable assumptions about how they would continue to evolve, for many others, such as household formation rates, this is simply not possible. Consequently, all variables were assumed to be fixed from 2037 onwards.
Figure 4 also shows the linear Figure 4: Extension of the Housing Delivery Based Forecast in North Uttlesford extrapolation of the original projection (Population, No.)
(i.e. demographic-led plus housing 53,000 market signals). This highlights that the 52,000 housing delivery based forecasts 51,000 50,000 includes a trough during the 2020s and 49,000 a peak in the 2030/40s. It is anticipated 48,000 that once the NUGC is complete, 47,000 46,000 subject to the District Council’s future 45,000 policies, population growth would likely 44,000 slow. This would allow the trend line to 43,000 42,000 catch-up sometime in the 2050s. 41,000 40,000 Indeed, some 360 non-NUGC 39,000 38,000 dwellings are included in the forecast 37,000 between 2034 and 2047 to reflect 36,000 background levels of development. If 35,000 34,000
these were not included, population
2011 2020 2022 2024 2033 2035 2037 2046 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2023 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2034 2036 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2047 growth would likely return to the trend 2012 earlier. Demographic-led + Housing Market Signals Housing Delivery Based Forecast Linear (Demographic-led + Housing Market Signals)
Page 3 of 12 Understanding Population Growth at the NUGC To calculate the population of NUGC Figure 5: Growth at NUGC Compared to the Remainder of North Uttlesford (Population, itself, a further projection was produced No.) that did not include any of the 5,000 53,000 dwellings proposed at NUGC. By 52,000 subtracting the ‘Without NUGC’ 51,000 50,000 projection from the ‘With NUGC’ 49,000 projection, it was possible to calculate 48,000 the population at NUGC for each year 47,000 46,000 (Figure 5). 45,000 44,000 Note that Figure 5 does not show the 43,000 impact of NUGC but rather the 42,000 41,000 population that NUGC accommodates. 40,000 If it wasn’t for NUGC, the dwellings 39,000 would need to be found elsewhere in 38,000 37,000 the north of Uttlesford. 36,000 35,000
Overall, it was calculated that by 2047, 34,000
2011 2020 2022 2024 2033 2035 2037 2046 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2023 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2034 2036 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2047 the NUGC would be home to 2012 approximately 13,600 people. With NUGC Without NUGC
Characteristics of the NUGC Population
In addition to determining the total Figure 6: Population Growth at the NUGC by 5-Year Cohorts (Population, No.) resident population of the NUGC, the methodology allowed for detailed 14,000 analysis of the breakdown of the 13,000 population by age (Figure 6). 12,000 11,000 It is notable that population growth is 10,000 not linear for each cohort. There are 9,000 several of reasons for this. 8,000 7,000
Prior to 2023, the population of the 6,000
NUGC is zero. Therefore, natural 5,000 change (the difference between births 4,000 and deaths) has very little influence on 3,000 population change (Figure 7). It is only 2,000 as the population growth gathers pace 1,000 that natural change starts to make an 0 influence; first, through a rapid increase in births and, second, through a slow 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 increase in deaths as the population 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ ages.
However, natural growth does not become a significant influence until the 2040s. Before then, it is net in-migration that dominates (Figure 8). This indicates a stepped profile, largely related to the number of dwellings within a given year. However, it is possible to discern that most migrants are under the age of 40.
Page 4 of 12 Figure 7: Natural Change at the NUGC by 5-Year Cohorts (Population, No.)
Figure 8: Net Migration at the NUGC by 5-Year Cohorts (Population, No.)
Page 5 of 12 Figure 9: The Difference in Age Profile at NUGC in 2023 and 2047 (Population, %) The change in the age profile between 2023 and 2047 is shown in Figure 9 85+ with the indexed change shown in 80-84 Figure 10. There are some notable 75-79 differences between 2023 and 2047: 70-74 65-69 ● The percentage aged 0-4 in 2023 60-64 55-59 might seem counterintuitive for a 50-54 relatively young population. 45-49 However, as Figure 10 shows, 40-44 there is a substantial increase in 35-39 the percentage over the next few 30-34 25-29 years. This reflects young couples 20-24 moving to NUGC and then having 15-19 children. This ‘bump’ of fertility is a 10-14 well-recognised phenomenon of 5-9 new settlements and subsequently 0-4 affects the 5-9 and 10-14 cohorts. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2023 2047
● The percentage aged 15-24 is considerably less in 2047 when compared to 2023. This relates to a complex interaction of migration patterns. Those present in 2023 can be assumed to be those that are either in statutory education or working. As the population becomes more established however, these are outweighed by those moving out of the area, either for university or to form their own households. As the 20% uplift in housing to address housing market signals takes effect, hopefully those wanting to form their own household would be able to stay in the area.
Figure 10: Indexed Change in Population Profile (%) at NUGC with Child Cohorts Highlighted (100 = 2023)
Page 6 of 12 Validating the Model
The Anticipated Housing Mix The mix of sizes, types and tenure of housing to include in Table 1: District Level Housing Mix Requirement (ORS, SHMA, any scheme is largely a matter of judgement. It not only 2015) depends on the actual specific needs of the population (i.e., TENURE TYPE BEDROOMS NO. % what they require), but also market demands (i.e. what the population desires). It also needs to consider the need for Market Flat 1 140 1.4 Housing flexibility over time and, fundamentally, the need to create a 2+ 80 0.8 (78%) community. Any imbalance in the housing mix can lead to a House 2 690 7.1 range of social issues; for example, including too many small flats in a new settlement too early can lead to a 3 4290 44.1 degree of forced isolation and mental health issues. 4 3,110 32.0
5+ 1,410 14.5 Table 1 shows the housing mix set out in the 2015 Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA). This is the theoretical Total 9,720 100.0 housing mix for the entire District between 2011 and 2033. Affordable Flat 1 320 11.5 Therefore, while it reflects a useful starting point, it should Housing 2+ 330 11.9 not dictate the mix of an individual development. For (22%) example, an affordable housing provider proposing a flatted House 2 850 30.6 development on a small urban site should not be expected 3 1,060 38.1 to deliver mostly market housing and larger unit types than 4 220 7.9 could be accommodated on the site. The objective is that Total 2,780 100.0 the balance of residential development across the local plan period reflects this mix. Total 12,500* - Note: * this was the anticipated housing need at the time the SHMA For a new settlement on a Greenfield site, it is also useful to was published but has changed subsequently. consider the type of community that is being created. In the case of the NUGC, the settlement is intended to be relatively low density and blended into the wooded, hilly landscape. There will certainly be a core to the settlement where much of the retail, employment and community facilities are located, which would lend itself to higher density housing, but these are likely to be exceptions to the rule. Notwithstanding this however, the NUGC does account for a significant amount of the housing being delivered in the District to 2033 (approximately 1,900 dwellings) and as such should make a meaningful contribution towards achieving the District’s required housing mix.
The mix of flats on a Greenfield site is always particularly difficult to determine. In many respects, flats are ideal for affordable housing that is required for couples or young families. However, providing too many in one location tends to have unintended social consequences. Therefore, the number of affordable flats needs to consider how they are to be integrated into the development as a whole.
One way of balancing the affordable flat requirement is to increase the proportion of market flats. While this might work well in a high-density scheme, it is unlikely to be appropriate for a low density new settlement. In addition, Table 1 shows that there is very little need for market flats in the District. An alternative is to provide much of the affordable flats in ‘mansion blocks’ of four to eight units that can be dispersed throughout the new settlement. This can work very well but the relatively large footprint of these buildings is likely to cause some difficulty on the hilly topography of the NUGC site.
Consequently, the following approach was taken:
● The proportion of market flats was increased slightly to counter balance the affordable flats that could be delivered in the settlement core areas.
Page 7 of 12 ● The proportion of affordable flats was decreased to a level that could be balanced with market flats in the core areas, plus several ‘mansion blocks’ throughout the new settlement. ● The proportion of 2- and 3-bedroom affordable houses was increased to offset the reduction in flats. As set out in Table 2, the remainder of the housing mix largely reflects the District’s requirements as this is compatible with the low-density form of the new settlement and the likely aspirations of the incoming population.
Table 2: Proposed Housing Mix for the NUGC
1-BED 2-BED 3-BED 4+ BED TOTAL No. % No. % No. % No. % No. %
Market Housing (60%)
Houses 0 0.0 205 6.8 1,320 44.0 1,400 46.7 2,925 97.5
Flats 50 1.7 25 0.8 0 0.0 0 0.0 75 2.5
Total 50 1.7 230 7.7 1,320 44.0 1,400 46.7 3,000 100.0
Affordable Housing (40%)
Houses 0 0.0 750 37.5 920 46.0 180 9.0 1,850 92.5
Flats 100 5.0 50 2.5 0 0.0 0 0.0 150 7.5
Total 100 5.0 800 40.0 920 46.0 180 9.0 2,000 100.0
All Housing (100%)
Houses 0 0.0 955 19.1 2,240 44.8 1,580 31.6 4,775 95.5
Flats 150 3.0 75 1.5 0 0.0 0 0.0 225 4.5
Total 150 3.0 1,030 20.6 2,240 44.8 1,580 31.6 5,000 100.0
Using the 2011 Census Multipliers
It is possible to produce a series of Figure 10: The Difference in Age Profile between the POPGROUP and 2011 Census multipliers from the 2011 Census that Methods (Population, No.) determine the probable number and 1,500 age of a population for a given housing 1,400 size, type and tenure. This is Bidwells’ 1,300 standard approach to understanding 1,200 the population of relatively small 1,100 schemes, but has some drawbacks 1,000 when used for larger long-term 900 schemes. In particular, this 800 methodology only looks at a single 700 point in time (April 2011) and therefore 600 cannot take account of the ageing of a 500 population over time, or the changing 400 rate of household formation. 300 Furthermore, the multipliers are based 200 on the entire population of an area 100 whereas large developments tend to 0 attract the younger migrants. 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Notwithstanding this, the 2011 Census POPGROUP Method in 2047 2011 Census Method methodology does provide a useful test
Page 8 of 12 to understand if the size and age of the Figure 11: The Difference in Age Profile between the POPGROUP and 2011 Census new settlement calculated by the Methods (Population, %) POPGROUP method reasonably 11 reflects the housing mix proposed. 10 Figures 10 and 11 show the difference 9 between the two methodologies in absolute numbers and percentages 8 respectively. The 2011 Census method 7 suggests a total resident population of 6 13,440 people as opposed to the POGROUP method suggests 13,587 5 people; a difference of just 147 people. 4
Overall, the two methods show good 3 correlation. The 2011 Census method 2 shows a significantly older population 1 (both in terms of children and adults) but this was expected as it reflects the 0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ entire resident population rather than just migrants. POPGROUP Method in 2047 2011 Census Method
Comparing the Housing Mix to the Projected Household Formation Another test is to compare the Figure 12: Household Growth at the NUGC by Type (Households, No.) household formation pattern that underpins the POPGROUP method with the proposed housing mix. Figure 12 shows the growth of household types at the NUGC between 2023 and 2047. This would suggest that approximately 800 one-person households will be formed at the NUGC. While these households may theoretically need (require) only a 1- bedroom dwelling, the majority will demand (desire) at least a 2-bedroom dwelling.
The reasons for this are many and extremely complex. One key factor is the break-up of families with many children spending their time across two households. In these cases, it is clearly understandable for the apparently 1- person household to need a larger dwelling. Another issue is the evolution of households during this period. While only covering 24-years, it is likely that some families during that period will see children leaving home and/or the death of a partner. In such circumstances a 1-person household is created by default despite the dwelling, when it was originally purchased, being intended for a much larger household.
Similarly, the 1,000 households comprising a couple without dependent children are likely to occupy larger dwellings. Depending on their age, they may be about to start a family or have seen children leave home.
Page 9 of 12 Overall, the housing mix proposed for the NUGC is considered to provide for the needs and demands of the projected resident population whilst ensuring a high degree of flexibility to respond to future unforeseen changes in household or population growth.
Comparisons to Other Large Residential Developments It is very difficult to estimate the population of a new residential development without undertaking a direct survey. To do this on a national level would be unfeasible. Therefore, as a proxy, population growth between 2011 and 2016 for each Medium Super Output Area (MSOA) in England and Wales is used. As household sizes are generally declining, rapid increases in population are likely to be representative of housebuilding. However, to ensure that the results are relevant to a new settlement, MSOAs that were already urbanised according to the ONS 2011 Rural/Urban Classification (RUC2011) were discounted. Ten potential comparable MSOAs have been identified through this method:
● Uttlesford 006 (+28.5%): Takeley, the north-western side of Great Dunmow and the south-eastern side of Stansted Mountfitchet. ● Huntingdonshire 018 (+28.2%): North and east of St Neots. ● South Cambridgeshire 020 (+25.0%): Cambourne. ● Bedford 019 (+24.6%): Wixams, Wilstead, Shortstown and Cardington. ● Central Bedfordshire 014 (+23.0%): Stotfold and Fairfield. ● Forest Heath 005 (+22.0%): Redlodge, Moulton and Kentford. ● South Norfolk 002 (+20.0%): West side of Norwich, Cringleford, and Colney. ● South Cambridgeshire 021 (+18.8%): Papworth Everard, Cambourne and Bourn. ● Bedford 008 (+18.0%): Biddenham and Bromham. ● Aylesbury Vale 008 (+17.4%): Waddesdon and the north of Aylesbury. Twelve graphs are set out below showing the change in population by age range for each of these ten MSOAs with the NUGC in 2047 and the change seen nationally between 2011 and 2016. Care should be taken when interpreting these graphs as each area will be affected by local circumstances and will be at a different point in its evolution. Notwithstanding this, it is a useful exercise to compare the data in the round.
The comparator areas show higher growth in those aged 0-4, which the NUGC mirrors, than seen nationally (Figure 13). As discussed above, this is likely due to young migrants moving to a new development and then having children.
Figure 13: Aged 0-4 (%) Figure 14: Aged 5-9 (%)
Page 10 of 12 Similarly, Figure 14 shows lower growth amongst those aged 5-9 compared to the national average. In many cases this is likely due to the age of the comparator areas; within a few years those currently in the 0-4 age bracket will have an influence on the 5-9 age bracket. For the NUGC however it is likely that the effect of the ageing population is also a factor.
For the most part Figures 15-20 show good correlation between the NUGC and the comparator areas, and show the significant difference between populations in new developments compared to the national average.
Figure 15: Aged 10-14 (%) Figure 16: Aged 15-19 (%)
Figure 17: Aged 20-24 (%) Figure 18: Aged 25-29 (%)
Figure 19: Aged 30-44 (%) Figure 20: Aged 45-59 (%)
Page 11 of 12
Figure 21 shows a significant variation between the NUGC and the comparator areas. This is almost certainly due to the difference in years being tested. In 2011, those aged 60 were born in 1950 – the beginning of the baby boom era. However, by 2016, this same age group would have transitioned to the 65-74 age bracket (Figure 22). In the UK, the number of births actually declined between 1950 and 1955 from 790,000 to 760,000 births. From 1956 however, the number of births significantly increased, reaching 980,000 births in 1964. By comparison, there were 750,000 births in 2016. Therefore, in the period 2011 to 2016 the 60-64 age range almost exactly frames this lull in the number of births, and hence why Figures 20 and 22 show the opposite trend.
For the NUGC, in 2047 those aged 60 were born in 1987. In 2017, this population would have been 30; a cohort that has seen significant net international migration over the last ten years, that had not been seen previously. This will almost certainly result in the uplift seen in Figure 21. Consequently, the variation in Figure 21 seems entirely reasonable.
Figure 21: Aged 60-64 (%) Figure 22: Aged 65-74 (%)
Figure 23; Aged 75-84 (%) Figure 24: Aged 85+ (%)
Conclusions This note has been prepared to explain how the population profile of the North Uttlesford Garden Community (NUGC) has been calculated and then validated through a series of tests. Overall, the modelling process has found that the NUGC is projected to have a population of approximately 13,600 people by 2047 when in will comprise 5,000 dwellings. All evidence used to validate the model either directly concurs with it, or on more detailed investigated, can be justified.
Page 12 of 12
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