Shifted Baselines and the Policy Placebo Effect in Conservation

Shifted baselines and the policy placebo effect in conservation

S AMANTHA L OVELL,AYANA E LIZABETH J OHNSON R OBIN R AMDEEN and L OREN M C C LENACHAN

Abstract Coastal ecosystems have been degraded by human whose history of degradation can be obscured by a lack of activity over centuries, with loss of memory about past states ecological data from the past (Jackson et al., ). Failure resulting in shifted baselines. More recently conservation ef- to document past change can lead to the shifting baseline forts have resulted in localized recoveries of species and eco- syndrome, in which knowledge of past ecosystem produc- systems. Given the dynamism of ecosystem degradation and tivity is lost over the course of generations (Pauly, ). recovery, understanding how communities perceive long- Shifted baselines have been documented among marine term and recent changes is important for developing and resource users; for example, in both Mexico and Brazil implementing conservation measures. We interviewed older fishers named more fish species and fishing stakeholders on three Caribbean islands and identified a sites as depleted than younger fishers (Sáenz-Arroyo shifted baseline with respect to the extent and degree of et al., ; Giglio et al., ). In Curaçao and Bonaire long-term declines in marine animal populations; stake- (Netherlands), fishers’ baselines were not shifted because holders with more experience identified more species as de- stories of plentiful past catches were passed down within pleted and key species as less abundant than those with less these communities, whereas scuba divers had unrealis- experience. Notably, the average respondent with ,  years tically positive perceptions of the health of the reefs and of experience listed no species as depleted despite clear evi- fish populations because they lacked this information dence of declines. We also identified a phenomenon we call (Johnson & Jackson, ). Such shifted baselines have im- the policy placebo effect, in which interviewees perceived plications for conservation, as they may lead to reduced some animal populations as recently recovering following restoration targets for exploited species (McClenachan passage of new conservation legislation but in the absence et al., , ). of evidence for actual recovery. Although shifted baselines Change in Caribbean marine ecosystems has been docu- have a negative effect on conservation as they can lower mented over century-long time scales, with historical losses recovery goals, the outcomes of a policy placebo effect of large vertebrates fundamentally altering trophic dynamics are unclear. If the public prematurely perceives recovery, (McClenachan et al., ; McClenachan & Cooper, ), motivation for continued conservation could decline. losses of herbivorous fishes such as parrotfish (Scarus spp.) Alternatively, perception of rapid success could lead com- contributing to declines in reef accretion rates (Cramer et al., munities to set more ambitious conservation goals. ), and reductions in the spatial distribution of coral reef habitats (McClenachan et al., ). In recent decades, the Keywords Historical ecology, local ecological knowledge, three-dimensional structure of Caribbean reefs has been re- marine conservation, marine protected areas, policy pla- duced (Alvarez-Filip et al., ), and hard coral cover de- cebo, recovery, shifting baselines clined on average by % between the s and early Supplementary material for this article is available at s, with shifts to non-framework building species https://doi.org/./S (Jackson et al., ). Together with ongoing overfishing, these changes have led to declines in the density of both exploited and unexploited reef fishes (Paddack et al., Introduction ). A phase shift from coral to algal dominance was triggered and maintained by a combination of a disease nformation on long-term change is important for conser- in the sea urchin Diadema antillarum in the early s, Ivation and management, particularly in coastal ecosystems, overexploitation of parrotfish and other algal grazers (Jackson et al., ), and land-based pollution (Cramer et al., , ). More recently, climate change, disease, SAMANTHA LOVELL* and LOREN McCLENACHAN (Corresponding author) Environmental Studies Program, Colby College, 5351 Mayflower Hill Drive, and invasive species have added additional stresses Waterville, Maine, USA. E-mail [email protected] (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., ;Greenetal.,;Randall AYANA ELIZABETH JOHNSON, Ocean Collective, Brooklyn, New York, USA &vanWoesik,).

ROBIN RAMDEEN, Waitt Institute, Montserrat, West Indies Despite these longer-term declines in Caribbean marine *Also at: Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, DC, USA ecosystems, some recent conservation efforts have been suc- Received  August . Revision requested  October . cessful, and localized recoveries of marine species and eco- Accepted  January . First published online  October . systems are occurring. Although Caribbean green turtle

Chelonia mydas populations are estimated to be , %of they had personally observed. During interviews on their historical abundance (McClenachan et al., ), ef- Montserrat we asked about abundance before and after fective local conservation has resulted in local population re- the eruption of the Soufriére Hills volcano ()because covery (Hays, ; Troëng & Rankin, ). Parrotfish the eruption and resulting ash caused large-scale damage recovery has been documented after a ban on fish traps to the marine environment surrounding the island. We (O’Farrell et al., ), giving hope for broader ecosystem re- also asked interviewees to identify additional species covery, as these grazing fish facilitate coral growth (Cramer whose abundance they perceived to be increasing or de- et al., ). In marine reserves where parrotfish and other creasing over these same time scales. Responses were re- herbivores are protected, coral recovered from bleaching sig- corded on a categorical scale, with absence equivalent to  nificantly faster compared to coral in unprotected areas and superabundant equivalent to . We then compared the (Mumby & Harborne, ). Diadema urchins have also re- mean perceived abundance ranking for each taxon over covered locally, facilitating coral recruitment and in- time and among islands. To confirm trends derived from creased abundance of juvenile coral on Caribbean reefs ranked abundances we also asked interviewees if they had (Edmunds & Carpenter, ; Carpenter & Edmunds, ). perceived a change in abundance over time in these key Although both long-term declines and recent recoveries taxa. Finally, we asked interviewees about any additional in the Caribbean have been documented, the ways in which changes they had observed in these taxa (e.g. geographical resource users view these changes have not been well stud- range or body size), and causes of any perceived changes. ied. Here, we use local ecological knowledge to understand To evaluate evidence for shifted baselines, we compared how residents on the Caribbean islands of Montserrat, both the perceived extent and degree of depletion of marine Antigua and Barbuda perceive the timing and extent of taxa to interviewees’ years of experience fishing or diving. long-term and recent changes in a suite of marine taxa, Extent of depletion was measured as the number of species and the causes of these changes. Our results illuminate per- perceived as declining; degree of depletion was measured as ceptions about ecosystem change and the implications of the perceived current abundance of the five species most com- those perceptions on development and implementation of monly cited as declining. For any species determined to be in- conservation measures. creasing, we identified conservation policies that would have affected the populations of these species, comparing the timing Methods of implementation of these policies to the generation time of each species, to determine if protection had been in place long We conducted in-person interviews with fishers and divers enough for a change to have resulted. To put these changes on the islands of Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda in January into an ecological and historical context we also compared . Interviewees were identified and introductions facili- interviewee perceptions of change to all available ecological tated by the Waitt Institute’s Blue Halo Initiative (Waitt, and historical information on changes in those taxa. ), and by approaching fishers as they returned from fishing and/or were selling their catches. After each inter- Results view we asked the interviewee if he or she knew of any other fishers or divers we should speak with, a technique We conducted a total of  interviews:  on Montserrat,  known as snowball sampling. This approach was intended on Barbuda and five on Antigua (Supplementary Table ). to target knowledgeable community members, to assess The mean age of interviewees was  years (range –), the perception of those most likely to be aware of changes. and the mean experience fishing or diving was  years We identified  marine animal taxa of historical, cultural (range –). We grouped interviewees into three age or economic importance to the islands. Four were individual categories: #  years ( interviewees), – years ( inter- species: spiny lobster Panulirus argus, common octopus viewees), and $  years ( interviewees) and three experi- Octopus briareus, queen conch Strombus gigas and barracuda ence categories: low experience, #  years ( interviewees), Sphyraena barracuda. Six were broader taxonomic groupings: medium experience, – years ( interviewees), and high sharks (Carcharhinidae), groupers (Epinephelinae), sea turtles experience with $  years ( interviewees). Thirty-seven (Chelonia mydas and Eretmochelys imbricata), snappers interviewees were men, and three women. (Lutjanidae), parrotfish (Scarus spp.), and hard coral  (Scleractinia). For each of the taxa of interest we asked in- Perceptions of the timing, extent and drivers of change in terviewees to indicate abundance as absent, rare, common, marine taxa abundant or superabundant in January ,  years earlier and  years earlier. Interviewees with ,  or ,  years of Across the  interviews,  taxa were identified as declin- experience were only asked to describe change over a time ing by at least one interviewee, which included all  of the frame that corresponded to the duration of their experi- taxa of interest and an additional  taxa (Supplementary ence, and interviewees only provided descriptions of taxa Table ). Individual interviewees cited a median of .

(range –) taxa as declining. The five taxa most com- P , .), grouper from . to . (F(,)=.,P, .), monly cited as declining were coral, lobster, conch, group- and parrotfish from . to . (F(,)=.,P, .). er and parrotfish, each of which had mean perceived These values were significant (P , .) after Bonferroni cor- abundance rankings that declined significantly over the rections for multiple testing. Interviewees from Antigua and -year time period (Fig. ). Coral were perceived as having Barbuda reported higher mean abundance than those from declined from . (abundant) to . (rare to common; Montserrat, with perceived mean abundances of lobster, F(,)=.,P, .), lobster from . to . (F(,)= conch, grouper, octopus, snapper and shark significantly .,P, .), conch from . to . (F(,)=., higher for at least one of the time periods (Supplementary

FIG. 1 Mean perceived abundance (, absent; , rare; , common; , abundant; , superabundant; with SD bars) for the  species of interest. Significant changes in perceived abundance are indicated with an asterisk.

TABLE 1 Reasons cited for species decline or increase (number of people citing reason), including recent increases, with illustrative example responses.

Reason (n) Example response (location, interviewee age) Decline Volcano (41) I would give [coral cover] a percentage, we have about 40% of the corals we used to have. It was all the volcano...the ash definitely took out loads of coral. (Montserrat, 56) Overfishing (35) When it comes to mating, [grouper] congregate, so people used to go out & take a whole breeding amount of them. (Barbuda, 42) Hurricanes (14) I used to see many [parrotfish] in terminal phase, but they were a casualty of the hurricanes...the first big hurricane was Hugo in 1989, & parrotfish washed up along the shore along with other fish. (Barbuda, 55) Habitat loss (10) The parrotfish have lost their habitat...everywhere there used to be parrotfish...you couldn’t go snor- keling without seeing a ton of them. (Montserrat, 33) Poor management (6) Lack of enforcement of regulations by officials. [referring to lobster decline] (Antigua, 46) Sedimentation (6) Sedimentation is also a huge issue, especially in areas with storm damage. The [coral] species currently there get majorly damaged in large storms. (Montserrat, 45) Water quality (3) The decline in sharks is associated with declining water quality. The beaches right off the lagoon are spawning areas for sharks, with bad water quality you will have less fish & less shark. (Barbuda, 55) Increase Legislation (16) Parrotfish were first banned the year before last because people saw the populations were depleted, now the populations have risen a lot. (Antigua, 64) Cultural shift/ecotourism (15) People respect them [the turtles]...even if it was in season & I could legally catch a turtle, I wouldn’t. The tourists would not take it too nicely. (Montserrat) Reduced fishing (11) You have less fishing for sharks now...some folks used to go out for sharks. Now that is only occasionally. (Montserrat, 45) Enforcement (2) Things have been looking up. Grouper season is closed right now. We work hard to have enforcement. (Barbuda, 42)

Fig. ). Perceived causes of declines in species abundance P . .; Fig. ). Additionally, five taxa (lobster, grouper, included overfishing, hurricanes and poor enforcement of parrotfish, snapper and conch) were described by at least fisheries rules (Table , Supplementary Fig. ). The most fre- one interviewee as declining overall, but experiencing a re- quently cited reason for species decline on Montserrat was the cent increase in the last  years (Supplementary Table ).  Soufriére Hills volcanic eruption, whereas interviewees Increases were most frequently attributed to conservation from Barbuda and Antigua most often cited overfishing. legislation, which was cited a total of  times as a reason In total  taxa were identified as increasing by at least for increase in populations of grouper, parrotfish, lobster, one interviewee (Supplementary Table ), including six of conch and turtle. Recent legislation includes implementing the  taxa of interest and  additional taxa. Individual in- closed seasons for fishing on Antigua and Barbuda, species terviewees cited a median of . taxa (range –) as increas- protections and marine reserves on Barbuda, and closed ing. Turtles were most frequently cited as increasing, and seasons for hunting turtles on all three islands. were the only taxon that had significantly higher mean per- In addition to changes in abundance, interviewees de- ceived abundance rankings in January  compared to  scribed changes over time in species composition, catch years earlier, increasing from . to . (F(,)=., per unit effort, and target species’ sizes (Table ). Fishers

TABLE 2 Examples of interviewee perceptions (number of people with perception) of changes in the marine environment.

Perceived change (n) Example response (location, interviewee age) Loss of large predators (7) [Spanish Point] was massively different [when I was younger]. Children would go down & shoot decent sized fish day after day. Now you only see...the smaller fish, not the big predatory fish anymore. Now you see the coneys, the small reef fish, you don’t really see the big grouper at all anymore. (Antigua, 45) Change in size of target species (12) You just would not believe the size of the fish we used to get here. (Montserrat, 56) Need for increased effort & more I used to come in by midday & have my total catch. Now it takes more hours to catch what we advanced technology (7) used to catch. I need to use different gear & go to different locations. (Barbuda, 56) Depletion of nearshore fishing grounds (7) I used to free dive for a long time & [grouper] were always in the shallows, now they have moved out into deeper waters. (Barbuda, 26)

mentioned increased difficulty catching large predators, smaller body sizes of species, depletion of fishing grounds, and the need for advanced technology and increased effort compared to their earlier experiences. When discussing these changes eight respondents independently described the s and s as a benchmark for ecosystem health, referring to higher abundances of marine animals, larger fish, less fishing pressure, and healthier coral. For example, when describing parrotfish abundance on Barbuda, one interviewee said, ‘the population was very high back in the s and s’ and also indicated that individual size had decreased over this same time period. On Montserrat in particular interviewees used the ecosystem before the volcanic eruption as a baseline against which to compare current abundance. For example, interviewees would commonly say ‘since the volcanic crisis, [the abundance of snapper] is not the same.’ This decadal timescale is relevant because two major events occurred that affected local reefs: the Caribbean-wide Diadema die-off in  and the volcanic eruption in . This date range indicates that interviewees are locating their views of pristine reefs between these two major disturbance events.

Evidence for a shifted baseline among resource users

FIG. 2 (a) Number of taxa perceived to be declining, and (b) We found strong evidence for a shifted baseline in resource ’ perceived current abundance of the five taxa most cited as users perceptions of the extent and degree of declines, declining: coral (Scleractinia), lobster Panulirus argus, conch with experience rather than age being the key determinant Strombus gigas, parrotfish (Scarus spp.), and grouper of perception of decline, and with no difference between (Epinephelinae). Rankings are as follows: , absent; , rare; , fishers and divers. Notably, interviewees with ,  years common; , abundant; , superabundant. Respondents are of experience reported a median of . species as depleted, grouped by years of fishing or diving experience (, , – and .  whereas interviewees with .  years of experience re- years). The horizontal line represents the median, the box ported a median of . taxa as depleted (Fig. a). The the first and third quartiles, and the caps the range of responses. difference in median number of species mentioned as declining was significant across all experience levels The policy placebo effect (F(,)=.,P, .). Our second metric of the shifting baseline syndrome In addition to this shifted baseline, we identified what we term was the perception of the current abundance for the five a policy placebo effect, in which recent local conservation ef- taxa most commonly cited as declining (coral, lobster, forts and new legislation result in the impression that taxa conch, parrotfish and grouper). Interviewees with more have increased in abundance before that is reasonably possible experience were more likely to consider these five taxa as given the characteristics of the species. A subset of our inter- being less abundant; interviewees with ,  years of viewees reported that several key taxa (turtles, lobster, group- experience typically described the key taxa as common (a er, parrotfish and conch) had increased in abundance in rating of )comparedtothosewith.  years of experience, recent years, which was frequently ascribed to new legislation who described the same taxa as rare (a rating of , Fig. b). and other local conservation efforts (Table ). This perceived Only interviewees with high levels of experience described association was most striking for turtles, with half of intervie- any of the five key taxa as absent (rating of ), whereas wees mentioning that local turtle populations are increasing in only those with medium and low levels described any taxa response to conservation efforts. These conservation pro- as superabundant. Mean abundance rankings were signifi- grammes and legislation include a size limit and closed season cantly different only between interviewees with low and on Montserrat, which was implemented in  ( years high levels of experience (t(df) = .,P=.). There prior to interviews), and a turtle hatchery and a closed season were no significant differences across age categories in per- on Antigua and Barbuda, which both began in  ( years ceptions of either extent or degree of change. prior to interviews). However, green turtles have a generation

Oryx, 2020, 54(3), 383–391 © 2018 Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605318000169 Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core. IP address: 170.106.40.219, on 30 Sep 2021 at 21:22:28, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605318000169 https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms Downloaded from 8 .Lvl tal. et Lovell S. 388 https://www.cambridge.org/core . https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605318000169 TABLE 3 Marine faunal groups perceived to be recently increasing, by island, with generation time, years since first protection, type and year of protection, per cent of interviewees describing them as increasing, illustrative quotes and information on current status.

. IPaddress: Years since % of intervie- first Type & year of wees noting Taxa (generation time) Island protection protection increase Illustrative quote Status Source

170.106.40.219 Green Chelonia mydas & Montserrat 14 Size limit & closed 50 I have never seen so many turtles Critically small Maylan (1983), hawksbill Eretmochelys season (2002) in Montserrat. People used to populations Groombridge & Luxmore imbricata turtles (35–50 make a living off of harvesting, (1989), Godley et al. (2004) years) but it is protected now. , on Antigua & 3 No allowed harvest 50 There are too many turtles & Low abundance of Maylan (1983),

30 Sep2021 at21:22:28 Barbuda without declared there keep being more & more: no nesting turtles Groombridge & Luxmore season (2013) one is troubling the turtles. (1989),

Oryx Barbuda Council (2013)

00 43,383 54(3), 2020, , Parrotfish (Labridae) Antigua & 3 Closed season on 25 The parrotfish are starting to get Low abundance of Barbuda Council (2013, (3 years) Barbuda Antigua & Barbuda better since the area has been three species 2014), Ruttenberg et al. (2013), banned on closed off. (2013)

, subjectto theCambridgeCore termsofuse,available at Barbuda (2014) Lobster Panulirus argus Antigua & 3 Closed season & 15 From the 2 months they were Average size has Barbuda Council (2013) – 391 (4–10 years) Barbuda minimum size limit, banned, there has been a dramatic declined, many © gear restrictions increase—they may extend it to lobsters of sub-legal 08Fua&FoaItrainldoi:10.1017/S0030605318000169 International Flora & Fauna 2018 (2013) 3 months now. size Grouper (Epinephelinae) Antigua & 3 Closed season (2013) 15 Now—seeing it come back Low abundance, Barbuda Council (2013), (8–11 years) Barbuda again...surprised to see the size of severely depleted Ruttenberg et al. (2013) them—they are really coming population back now. Conch Strombus gigas Antigua & 3 Closed season & 5 Conch suffered a huge blow...Had Low abundance & Barbuda Council (2013), (5 years) Barbuda minimum size limit some exporters for conch & it size compared to Ruttenberg et al. (2013) (2013) created a massive decline... other Caribbean The population is coming back islands now. Shifted baselines 389

time of – years, and hawksbill – years. Therefore, Ferguson & Daniel, ). The decline in invertebrate popula- with the exception of the turtle hatchery, it is unlikely that tions on the islands is also mirrored by interviewee percep- these conservation actions and policies could have resulted tions: . % of interviewees described lobster as declining in population increases within this time frame. and % described conch as declining. Declines have oc- Likewise, parrotfish, lobster, grouper and conch were all curred in landings of spiny lobster on Barbuda (Peacock, considered to be increasing, but with legislation in place for ; Albuquerque & McElroy, ) and conch popula- less than one generation time for each group. Conservation tions are low on Barbuda compared to other Caribbean policies include the implementation of closed seasons for islands (Ruttenberg et al., ). these other taxa in  (Barbuda Council, ). On Despite this alignment of ecological assessments and in- Barbuda, parrotfish harvesting was banned and a system terviewees’ responses, we also identified a shifted baseline in of extensive marine reserves was created in  (Barbuda the degree and extent of perceived change in the abundance Council, ). Given that enforcement of these new regula- of key taxa, with years of experience dictating perceptions of tions was implemented slowly on both islands, and the gen- decline. Our approach of prioritizing knowledgeable indivi- eration times for parrotfish and groupers are  to .  years, duals may have underestimated this shifting baseline effect, respectively, it is unlikely that any increases in abundance to as many fishers or divers may have less experience than our date are the result of these policy changes. interviewees. At the same time, even our knowledgeable interviewees were limited in their observations to the past – decades. The species with the longest generation time and Discussion lowest possible recovery rates were not perceived to have declined, whereas the shorter-lived species were. This may Local ecological knowledge, ecological data and be because many of these species were probably depleted historical observations before the period observed by any of our interviewees. Although historical information is limited, it suggests re- Our results reveal that, collectively, resource users on three duction in abundances extending back decades or centuries. Caribbean islands identify declines in key taxa, including Historical sources from the s to early s describe coral, other invertebrates and reef fish. These perceptions abundant snapper, sharks and barracuda on Montserrat, are largely confirmed by ecological data. Barbuda has live Antigua and Barbuda (Riddell, ; Coleridge, ; coral cover as low as .% (Jackson et al., ) and the de- Nutting, ; Supplementary Table ) and early maps refer- cline in coral cover during – for the island was es- ence locations named after particular taxa (Fig. ), usually timated to have been .% (Ruttenberg et al., ). Across an indication that the taxa were abundant there. We located both Antigua and Barbuda there have been documented de- five maps published between  and  that referenced clines in reef cover and health (Francis, ). In Montserrat our taxa of interest, including sharks, groupers, snappers the volcanic eruption and continued sedimentation de- and lobsters. For example, a  map noted ‘sharks without stroyed large portions of reef off the southern and eastern number’ west of Antigua and Barbuda, and a  map in- coasts (Ferguson & Daniel, ), consistent with intervie- dicated a location south of Barbuda as having ‘excellent wees’ responses. Forty per cent of interviewees described spearfishing’ for groupers. These observations suggest that grouper and parrotfish as declining; ecological assessments re- these marine species were historically abundant, and may port low abundance of large fish species around Montserrat, have declined prior to observations by our interviewees. Antigua and Barbuda (Francis, ; Ruttenberg et al., ; More recent historical information also indicates reef

FIG. 3 (a) The Caribbean, with rectangle indicating the location of the islands of Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, and (b) places named after marine species, identified from historical maps, with year of map (from: Baker, ;DeLa Rochette, ; Luffman, ; Fielding, ; Nicholson & Sons, ).

ecosystems were already significantly degraded by the mid inspire further restoration efforts and trust in manage- s. Even prior to the volcanic eruption, lobster landings ment decisions because people perceive they are effective. were reduced on Montserrat, and conch harvests showed In either case, this placebo effect illuminates the need to signs of depletion as early as the s (Luckhurst & pair local ecological knowledge with ecological monitor- Marshalleck, ; Jeffers, ).Therefore, the fact that sev- ing and the use of historical data to understand long-term eral interviewees described the ecosystem of – years ago change. Although local ecological knowledge is useful for Antigua and Barbuda and pre-volcano () for when it is taken cumulatively and when resource users Montserrat as ‘pristine,’ and used the state of the ecosystem have direct experience that overlaps with periods of de- in that time period as a baseline against which to compare cline, the perceptions of resource users (especially those current conditions is further indication of a shifted baseline without long-term experience) are not always consistent in the perception of pristine reefs. with actual current or past ecological states. To manage and restore ecosystems effectively, we need to interweave firm understandings of history, ecology and local Natural disasters, shifted baselines and the policy placebo knowledge. – Interviewees referring to the environment of years Acknowledgements We thank Colby College’s Goldfarb Center for ago as pristine exemplifies the insidious nature of the shift- funding SL, two anonymous reviewers for valuable comments, Manny ing baseline syndrome. Description of Montserrat’s pre- Gimond for technical assistance, and Jeremy Jackson for facilitating volcano environment as pristine suggests the role of natural author collaboration and inspiring this work. disasters in obscuring baselines. Although nearshore ecosystems were substantially altered by the volcano, this emphasis Author contributions Project conception: AJ and LM; data collec- tion: SL and RR; data analysis and visualization: SL and LM; writing could mask anthropogenic effects on marine species. and editing: SL and LM. Interviewees from Montserrat consistently reported taxa as less abundant than on the other two islands, both before Conflicts of interest None. and after the volcano (Supplementary Fig. ), which may be a result of lowered expectations for abundance, consistent Ethical standards This research was deemed Institutional Review with the shifting baseline syndrome. Work on the syndrome Board exempt by the Institutional Review Board Chair of Colby has typically focused on effects of chronic exploitation, and College. Interviews on Montserrat were conducted after obtaining a the role of natural disasters in recalibrating expectations for Memorandum of Understanding with the Montserrat Department of Environment. nature requires exploration. There was a clear disparity between ecological data and interviewee perceptions of recent increases in species pro- References tected by legislation, which we suggest can be attributed to the occurrence of a policy placebo effect. 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