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New Opportunities to Study Earthquake Precursors Matthew E Opinion New Opportunities to Study Earthquake Precursors Matthew E. Pritchard*1, Richard M. Allen2, Thorsten W. Becker3, Mark D. Behn4, Emily E. Brodsky5, Roland Bürgmann2, Cindy Ebinger6, Jeff T. Freymueller7, Matt Gerstenberger8, Bruce Haines9, Yoshihiro Kaneko8, Steve D. Jacobsen10, Nate Lindsey11, Jeff J. McGuire12, Morgan Page13, Sergio Ruiz14, Maya Tolstoy15, Laura Wallace3,8, William R. Walter16, William Wilcock17, and Harold Vincent18 he topic of earthquake prediction has a long history, lit- The societal implications of confirmed and repeatable pre- tered with failed attempts. Part of the challenge is that cursory signals would be significant, but questions remain. Tpossible precursory signals are usually reported after the How frequently do similar precursor candidates occur, and in event, and the systematic relationships between potential pre- which plate tectonic settings? How often do they result in cursors and main events, should they exist, are unclear. Several larger earthquakes? Are there certain characteristics of the pre- recent studies have shown the potential of new approaches to cursor(s) that make them more or less likely to result in a larger simultaneously detect earthquake foreshocks and slow-slip earthquake? What instrumentation do we need onshore and phenomena through ground deformation, seismic, and gravi- offshore, at or below the Earth’s surface or in space, to best tational transients—weeks to months before large subduction record precursory events? How do we improve operational zone earthquakes. The entire international community of earthquake forecasts to include new knowledge of both earth- earthquake researchers should be engaged in deploying instru- quake statistics from improved seismicity catalogs and geodetic mentation, sharing data in real time, and improving physical transients? Are there settings in which precursory signals can models to resolve the extent to which slow-slip events and lead to forecasts on timescales and at probability levels that are earthquake swarms enhance the likelihood (or not) for later, useful for saving lives and reducing the economic impact of larger earthquakes. earthquakes? How do we communicate information about Experts discussed these apparent seismic and geodetic the inferred hazard potential inferred from possible precursors earthquake precursors and next steps in how to assess their in a clear and timely fashion? impact on earthquake hazard assessment at a Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics meeting held in May 2019 in Berkeley, California (National Academies of Science, 1. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New Engineering, and Medicine [NASEM], 2019). For example, York, U.S.A.; 2. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, slow slip occurred during a sequence of foreshocks on the Berkeley, Berkeley, California, U.S.A.; 3. Jackson School of Geoscience, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, U.S.A.; 4. Department of Earth and Environmental Japan Trench megathrust that began 23 days before the 2011 Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, U.S.A.; 5. Department of M Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, w 9 Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquake, culminating in an M et al. California, U.S.A.; 6. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Tulane w 7.3 earthquake two days before the mainshock (Kato , University, New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S.A.; 7. Department of Earth and Environmental 2012; Ito et al., 2013). Similarly, foreshocks and aseismic slip Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, U.S.A.; 8. GNS Science, M Lower Hut, New Zealand; 9. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of started at least two weeks before the 2014 w 8.1 Iquique, Technology, Pasadena, California, U.S.A.; 10. Department of Earth and Planetary Chile, mainshock (Ruiz et al., 2014; Socquet et al., 2017). Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, U.S.A.; 11. Department of The foreshocks and motions prior to the Tohuku-Oki earth- Geophysics, Stanford University, Stanford, California, U.S.A.; 12. U.S. Geological Survey, Moffett Field, California, U.S.A.; 13. U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, quake may also have been connected to a change in satel- California, U.S.A.; 14. Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, lite-measured gravity gradients before the mainshock (Panet Chile; 15. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lamont-Doherty Earth et al. Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York, U.S.A.; 16. Lawrence , 2018), but the significance of these results continues Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, U.S.A.; 17. School of to be debated (Wang and Bürgmann, 2019). Although many Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, U.S.A.; 18. Department of Ocean Engineering, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, clusters of earthquakes and slow-slip events occur without Rhode Island, U.S.A. foretelling a large earthquake (some lasting years, e.g., Ohta *Corresponding author: [email protected] et al., 2006; Tsang et al., 2015; Uchida et al., 2016; Rousset et al., Cite this article as Pritchard, M. E., R. M. Allen, T. W. Becker, M. D. Behn, 2019), what is new in the past decade is that both seismic and E. E. Brodsky, R. Bürgmann, C. Ebinger, J. T. Freymueller, M. Gerstenberger, B. Haines, et al. (2020). New Opportunities to Study Earthquake Precursors, Seismol. Res. Lett. geodetic precursors have been jointly observed before two XX,1–4, doi: 10.1785/0220200089. M > major w 8 earthquakes (e.g., Obara and Kato, 2016). © Seismological Society of America Volume XX • Number XX • – 2020 • www.srl-online.org Seismological Research Letters 1 Downloaded from https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article-pdf/doi/10.1785/0220200089/5086912/srl-2020089.1.pdf by Univ of Texas-Austin user on 08 July 2020 To address these questions, there is an obvious need for the results of a diverse suite of models and forecasts. Helping more observations. Long-term seismometer and geodetic net- scientists gain exposure to expert elicitation practices in advance works are needed both onshore and offshore at a range of sites, of such events will help streamline forecasting efforts, but when spanning a suite of fault-slip behaviors. For seafloor geodesy information is needed by civil protection authorities within above the seismogenic zone of subduction megathrusts, con- short-time frames (e.g., 24–48 hr), expert elicitation can be chal- tinuous measurements and centimeter-level accuracy or better lenging. However, there are rigorous methods that allow for in the horizontal and vertical directions are needed. An rapid elicitation (e.g., Aspinall, 2010) and that can be imple- increasing array of techniques are available including Global mented quickly if protocols have been established ahead of time. Positioning System-acoustic methods, seafloor absolute pres- An active area of research focuses on the question of sure gauges, acoustic ranging, borehole instrumentation whether there are certain characteristics of the precursor(s) (including tiltmeters and pore pressure for volumetric strain), that make them more or less likely to result in a large earth- and fiber optic strainmeters (e.g., Bürgmann and Chadwell, quake. There was debate at the meeting as to whether the pre- 2014 and presentations about seafloor instrumentation are cursors to the 2011 Japan earthquake were unusual enough (in posted from the 2019 Committee on Seismology and terms of size and spatiotemporal evolution of the foreshocks) Geodynamics meeting; NASEM, 2019). For onshore observa- to warrant public statements of warning, an issue that garnered tions, dense networks of continuously recording instruments earlier prominence in the case of the 2009 L’Aquila, Italy, nor- are needed in many poorly instrumented subduction zones, mal-faulting earthquake (Marzocchi et al., 2014). Revisiting the and data sharing across political boundaries are essential to timeline of events preceding the 2011 earthquake (and other enable detection of long wavelength precursory signals (e.g., candidate precursors) using current knowledge to evaluate Bedford et al., 2020). Over the decades, lab experiments have what actions should have been taken by different stakeholders shown precursors (e.g., McLaskey, 2019), but understanding could be useful, perhaps as a tabletop exercise. how these scale to natural systems has been a challenge. To Given our growing understanding of earthquake precursors, bridge the gap between lab and natural earthquakes, field-scale it is clear that most swarms and/or slow-slip events do not experiments to better understand earthquake initiation, fault produce large, damaging earthquakes, but some do. (The size rupture, and earthquakes induced by human activities are threshold for a damaging earthquake depends on the location underway in the Swiss Alps (see Data and Resources) and and vulnerability of the building stock.) Based on recent expe- are proposed in North America (Savage et al., 2017). riences like the 2016 Bombay Beach earthquake swarm, close Along with new observations, there is a critical need for to the overdue southernmost section of the San Andreas fault integrative physical models that can assimilate those obser- in California (McBride et al., 2019), and the 2016 Kaikōura vations, ideally for a real-time assessment of seismic hazard. earthquake and slow-slip episode, it is clear that
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