SpaceX’s Super Heavy and Starship

Starship

Super Heavy

Mars Society Annual Convention | Gerald Black | October 18, 2019

This talk is about the next generation launch vehicle that SpaceX is developing, which consists of the Super Heavy first stage and the Starship second stage. The capabilities of this new launch vehicle are amazing, and it will be a game changer.

1 Starship

Super Heavy

Statue Falcon New SLS Saturn V SH/SS of Heavy Glenn Liberty

As you can see from this figure, the Super Heavy and Starship will be the tallest launch vehicle ever, taller than both the SLS and the Saturn V. It will also be the most capable launch vehicle ever by a wide margin.

2 Super Heavy/Starship Starship • Fully reusable • Cost per launch Super Heavy • Less than • Much less than and • Will replace the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy

The Super Heavy and Starship will be the first orbital launch vehicle that is fully reusable. Unlike the Falcon 9, where only the first stage is reused, both stages will be reused. Furthermore, has stated that, because it’s fully reusable, the cost per launch will be less than that of SpaceX’s first launch vehicle, the Falcon 1, which was a very small launch vehicle and much less than SpaceX’s current launch vehicles, the Falcon 9 and the Falcon Heavy. The plan, therefore, is that the Super Heavy and Starship will eventually replace the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy.

3 One distinguishing feature of the Super Heavy first stage is that it will have a lot of rocket engines. As many as 37 Raptor rocket engines can fit in the base of the rocket, though Elon Musk has said they might use fewer engines, perhaps 31 engines.

4 The Starship

• Fins for aerodynamic control • Two lower • Two upper • 6 pop-out landing legs • 3 versions • Cargo • Crew • Tanker

The Starship second stage has fins for aerodynamic control in the atmosphere of Earth or of Mars. The latest version of the Starship, which on September 28 of this year, has two large fins at the bottom and two smaller fins at the top. The Starship also has 6 landing legs that pop out just before landing. The Starship, comes in 3 different versions. The first version is used for cargo. This version would be used to launch commercial satellites, military satellites, and science missions. It could also be used to carry cargo to the International Space Station or to the surface of the Moon or Mars. The second carries crew. The third is a tanker version used for orbital refueling.

5 The Starship

• Can land on: • Earth • Moon • Mars • Other (Europa, etc.) • 100 tons of cargo or 100 people • Surface of Moon or Mars

What’s exciting is that the Starship is designed so that it can land back on Earth, but it can also land on the Moon, on Mars, and on other objects in our solar system. For instance, the Starship could be used to land a large robotic probe on Europa, which is a moon of Jupiter. The capability of the Starship is amazing. By using orbital refueling, the Starship will be able to land 100 tons of cargo or 100 people on the surface of the Moon on the surface of Mars.

6 This illustration shows how the Super Heavy and Starship will be used for lunar surface missions. The Starship will first be launched into an elliptical earth orbit. Once in elliptical orbit, the Starship will be refueled by Starship tanker vehicles. It will require several tanker vehicles to refill the starship. Then, the fully fueled Starship will depart for the Moon, land on the Moon and return to Earth. Refueling in earth orbit is a key new technology that SpaceX will implement, because refueling in earth orbit doubles or even triples the payload mass that you can send to the Moon or to Mars. By refueling in Earth orbit, the Starship will be able to land cargo or crew on the Moon and return to Earth without having to be refueled on the Moon. This is important, since thus far there are no gas stations on the moon.

7 This is an artist’s conception of what the Starship might look like as it comes in to land on the Moon.

8 This illustration shows how the Super Heavy/Starship will be used for missions to the surface of Mars. The Starship would first be launched earth orbit, where the Starship would be refueled several Starship tanker vehicles. The refueled Starship would then travel to Mars and land on Mars. The Starship can land 100 tons of cargo or up to 100 people on the surface of Mars. Once on Mars, the Starship would be refueled with propellants produced on Mars using in situ resource utilization. Once refueled on Mars, the Starship would return to Earth and be reused for other trips to Mars. Astronauts could return to earth in the Starship, or some of them might remain on Mars to establish the first human settlement on the Red Planet.

9 This is an artist’s conception of a human settlement on Mars, and you can see some starships in the background.

10 Starhopper test vehicle aka “Flying Water Tower”

• Starship is a challenge • Test vehicle “Starhopper” • Final August 27, 2019 • Verified: • Raptor rocket engine • Methane/LOX propellants • Vertical takeoff and landing • Stainless steel rocket casing

Starhopper Starship

The development of the new launch vehicle is progressing rapidly, especially in the past year. Elon Musk concluded that the biggest challenge would be making the the Starship reusable. Since they knew this will be difficult, SpaceX built a test vehicle to verify the technologies for the Starship. The test vehicle was called the Starhopper. Since it resembles a water tower, it also was given the nickname “Flying Water Tower”. The Starhopper has the same diameter as the Starship, but it is much shorter. Testing of the Starhopper was completed on August 27 of this year, when the Starhopper ascended about 150 meters, then smoothly moved laterally and landed on the center of a landing pad not far from the launch site. The Starhopper verified the new Raptor rocket engine. Starhopper also verified the use of methane and liquid oxygen propellants, which is important because methane is a different fuel than has been used for previous launch vehicles. It also verified the vertical takeoff and landing capability. And it verified the stainless-steel rocket casing.

11 Starship Mk1 Prototype in Boca Chica, Texas

Starship Prototypes

• 2 full scale Starship prototypes under constructed • Competing teams • Boca Chica, Texas (Mk1) • Florida near Cape Canaveral (Mk2) • More Starships to follow (Mk3 & Mk4)

To further verify the Starship design, SpaceX is constructing two full scale Starship prototype vehicles. The two Starship prototypes are being constructed by competing teams. The Mark 1 prototype is being assembled at SpaceX’s future launch site in Boca Chica, Texas. That’s the one shown in this photo, and as you can see the vehicle is nearing completion. Some more work remains to be done, particularly with the rocket engines, but this vehicle should be ready to fly as early as next month. Meanwhile, the Mark 2 prototype is being assembled in Florida not far from the Cape Canaveral launch site. Its construction is only about a month behind the one in Texas. Following this two more Starships will be built, the Mark 3 and Mark 4. The Mark 1 and Mark 2 prototypes will each have 3 rocket engines and will only be used for suborbital testing, while the Mark 3 and Mark 4 Starships will have 6 rocket engines and are intended to be used along with the Super Heavy booster for orbital flights.

12 Development Schedule • Suborbital testing (Mk1 and Mk2) Starship • First flight Mk1 in November • 20 kilometers altitude • Will build Starships and Super Heavies as fast as possible at both locations Super Heavy • Mk3 finished this year • Mk4 finished by February 2020 • First Super Heavy finished by March 2020 • First orbital launch March 2020 (Super Heavy and Mk3 or Mk4)

The next milestone will be suborbital testing of the Mark 1 and Mark 2 Starship prototype vehicles. The goal is for the Mark 1 Starship (that’s the Texas prototype) is to begin flight testing this November. The first suborbital flight will be to an altitude of 20 kilometers. Meanwhile, while flight testing is going on, the goal is to continue building Starships and Super Heavies as fast as possible at both the Texas and Florida locations. Construction of the Mark 3 Starship in Texas is scheduled to begin by the end of this month and be completed by the end of this year. Completion of the Mark 4 Starship in Florida is targeted for February of 2020. And completion of the first Super Heavy booster is targeted for March of next year. The first orbital launch is scheduled for March of next year, and that will be with the Super Heavy booster and either the Mark 3 or Mark 4 Starship.

13 New Lunar Goals • March 2019 V.P. Pence • Return humans to the lunar surface by 2024 • Previous goal was 2028 • Project Artemis • NASA plan does not use the Super Heavy/Starship

New lunar goals were announced this year. In March Vice President Pence announced the goal of returning humans to the lunar surface by 2024. The previous NASA goal for this accomplishment was 2028, so this amounts to an appreciable acceleration of earlier plans. The new program is called project Artemis. Artemis was the twin sister of Apollo in Greek mythology, so I they picked an appropriate name. The current NASA plan, however, does not use the Super Heavy and Starship. I’ll talk about the NASA plan shortly.

14 New Lunar Goals • March 2019 V.P. Pence • Return humans to the lunar surface by 2024 • Previous goal was 2028 • Project Artemis • NASA plan does not use the Super Heavy/Starship • July 2019 Elon Musk • Land Starship on Moon in 2021 • Land humans on Moon by 2022 or 2023

Not to be outdone, in July of this year Elon Musk stated that he could land a Starship on the Moon in 2021, and he could return humans to the lunar surface in 2022 or 2023. I think the 2022 or 2023 is overly optimistic, but if everything went just right, I think SpaceX might be able to meet the 2024 goal set by the Trump administration.

15 Space Launch System (SLS) Space Launch System

• Being developed by NASA • Humans to the Moon and Mars • Can’t land on Moon or Mars • Boeing is the contractor for the first stage • Abysmal performance • $14 billion spent with no launches • First launch scheduled for late 2020

NASA is also developing a large new launch vehicle, the Space Launch System, or SLS. Click Like the Super Heavy and Starship, the SLS is designed to take humans to the Moon and to Mars. But there is an important distinction. Unlike the Starship, the SLS can only take astronauts or cargo to the vicinity of the Moon or Mars – it can’t land on the Moon or Mars as the Starship can. Boeing is the prime contractor for the first stage of the SLS. Unfortunately, Boeing’s performance on this project has been abysmal. Thus far, $14 billion has been spent on the SLS without a single launch. The first launch is now scheduled for late 2020, which is years behind the original schedule.

16 Orion Spacecraft

NASA is also developing the Orion spacecraft, which will be launched atop the Space Launch System. It is designed to transport astronauts from Earth to lunar orbit and back, but it can’t land on the lunar surface. It is similar the Command Module of the Apollo program, except it is a bit larger.

17 Capability Comparison

Space Super Launch Heavy/ System Starship (SLS)

• Fully expendable • Fully reusable • Not capable of orbital refueling • Capable of orbital refueling • Can’t land on the Moon or Mars • Able to land on the Moon and Mars • 3 configurations • Continual evolvement • Block 1 – 70 tons to LEO; 2020 • 100+ tons to LEO (fully reusable); 2020 • Block 1B – 105 tons to LEO; 2024 • Later about 150 tons to LEO (fully reusable) • Block 2 – 130 tons to LEO; 2028

So here is a comparison of the differences in the capability of the SLS and the Super Heavy and Starship. The SLS is fully expendable, whereas the Super Heavy and Starship is fully reusable. The SLS is not capable of orbital refueling, whereas the Starship is capable of orbital refueling. The SLS is unable to land on the Moon or Mars, whereas the Starship can do that. Three configurations of the SLS are planned, with increasing payload capability, and those versions are scheduled to become operational in 2020, 2024 and 2028. With the Super Heavy and Starship, I expect there will be continual evolvement, at least in the beginning, with improvements being made on almost every flight. The first flight of the SLS, and the first orbital flight of the Super Heavy and Starship are both scheduled to take place in 2020, so it’s a horse race to see which vehicle will be launched first. The Super Heavy and Starship can launch heavier payloads to low earth orbit, even in its fully reusable mode. But the difference for low earth orbit missions is not that large. The place where the Super Heavy and Starship will outshine the SLS by a very large amount is on missions to the Moon or to Mars. That’s because the Starship is capable of orbital refueling and the SLS is not, and the orbital refueling doubles or triples the payload that can be sent to the Moon or Mars.

18 Cost Comparison

Space Super Launch Heavy/ System Starhip (SLS)

• Development cost: $30 billion • Development cost: $2 - $3 billion • Cost per launch: • Cost per launch: • $2 billion initially • $50 million initially • Decreasing to $1 billion • Decreasing to $5 million

The costs, though, are the biggest difference between the SLS and the BFR. The development cost for the BFR is projected to be about $30 billion dollars by the time the third most capable version is ready. By contrast, Elon Musk’s latest estimate is that the development cost for the Super Heavy and Starship will be roughly $2 or $3 billion dollars. The space launch system will cost about $2 billion dollars per launch initially, and over time that cost should decrease to about $1 billion per launch. The reason it is so expensive is because it is fully expendable and will have a very low flight rate, only about once a year. The initial cost per launch of the Super Heavy and Starship will probably be about $50 million dollars, and this will decrease over time to about $5 million. Thus, initially for the same cost of a single SLS launch, we could perform 40 Super Heavy and Starship launches. This difference will increase over time, so eventually for the same cost as a single SLS launch, we could afford 200 Super Heavy and Starship launches. This difference in cost is enormous. It’s like one launch system we can afford, and the other we can’t.

19 NASA’s Plan NASA’s Gateway Concept • Lunar orbiting space station (Gateway) • SLS and Orion spacecraft • New lunar lander • Descent stage • Ascent stage • New transfer vehicle

NASA has produced its own plan of achieving the 2024 goal of returning humans to the lunar surface. The NASA plan envisions construction of a lunar orbiting space station, which they call the Gateway. To take astronauts to and from this space station, the SLS and Orion spacecraft would be used. Since neither the SLS nor Orion can land on the Moon, a new lunar lander would be needed. The lander would consist of a descent stage and an ascent stage. This is like the descent stage and ascent stage of the Lunar Module of the Apollo program. In addition, another new vehicle, which NASA calls a transfer vehicle, is needed to transport the lunar lander from the Gateway, which is in a distant lunar orbit, to a low lunar orbit.

20 NASA’s Plan NASA’s Gateway Concept • NASA plan is flawed • Will fund two different landing systems • Contractors will be chosen in 2020 • NASA recommends its own plan • Will consider other proposals

The NASA plan is flawed. As Robert Zubrin has pointed out, the Gateway isn’t needed, and without the Gateway the transfer vehicle wouldn’t be needed either. The NASA plan is too indirect and overly complex. It would reduce the odds of returning humans to the Moon by 2024, and it is much more expensive than alternative plans. NASA is planning to fund two different landing systems, with the contractors to be chosen in 2020. This is like the program to transport cargo to the ISS, where NASA funded two launch vehicles and two spacecraft, and likewise for the to deliver crew to the ISS. NASA recommends its own plan. However, NASA has said it will consider other proposals. So the leaves the door open at a little bit. It’s possible that the Starship could win a contract to be one of the two landing systems that NASA funds. At least that is what I hope will happen.

21 Reason for Optimism

• Lots of progress on the Super Heavy/Starship • SH/SS success would be a game changer • 2020s will see humans returning to the Moon

There is now good reason for optimism. It is because SpaceX has been making rapid progress on the Super Heavy and Starship that I feel optimistic. If the Super Heavy and Starship succeed, as I think they will, it will be a game changer. The fact that we may soon have a fully reusable system for transporting cargo and crew to the Moon and Mars at a cost perhaps 100 times less than with an expendable system, this gives me hope that the dream of bases on the Moon and cities on Mars will become a reality. I believe the 2020s will see humans returning to the Moon, if not by 2024 then at least by the end of the decade.

22 Reason for Optimism

• Lots of progress on the Super Heavy/Starship • SH/SS success would be a game changer • 2020s will see humans returning to the Moon • 2030s will see human landing on Mars

And I believe that the 2030s will see the first human footprints on the red planet. I’m hoping that I’ll still be alive to see this happen.

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