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Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets Handbooks in Finance Handbooks in Finance ~ HANDBOOK of m SPORTS and - LOTTERY MARKETS / Donald B. Hausch William T. Ziemba /MiEditors + ^ North-Holland HANDBOOK OF SPORTS AND LOTTERY MARKETS HANDBOOKS IN FINANCE Series Editor WILLIAM T. ZIEMBA Advisory Editors KENNETH J. ARROW GEORGE C. CONSTANTINIDES B. ESPEN ECKBO HARRY M. MARKOWITZ ROBERT C. MERTON STEWART C. MYERS PAUL A. SAMUELSON WILLIAM F. SHARPE , '1 CSS AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON NEW YORK • OXFORD • PARIS • SAN DIEGO m • • • SAN FRANCISCO SINGAPORE SYDNEY TOKYO A m ELSEVIER North-Holland is an imprint of Elsevier HANDBOOK OF SPORTS AND LOTTERY MARKETS Edited by Donald B. Hausch University of Wisconsin, Madison William T. Ziemba University of British Columbia Oxford University University of Reading m AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON NEW YORK • OXFORD • PARIS • SAN DIEGO «s SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO ELSEVIER North-Holland is an imprint of Elsevier II North-Holland is an imprint of Elsevier Radarweg 29, PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam, The Netherlands Linacre House, Jordan Hill, Oxford OX2 8DP, UK 30 Corporate Drive, Suite 400, Burlington, MA 01803, USA 525 B Street, Suite 1900, San Diego, California 92101-4495, USA Copyright c 2008, Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including recording, photocopying, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Permissions may be sought directly from Elsevier’s Science & Technology Rights Department in Oxford, UK: phone (+44) (0) 1865 843830; fax (+44) (0) 1865 853333; email: [email protected]. Alternatively you can submit your request online by visiting the Elsevier Web site at www.elsevier.com/locate/permissions, and selecting Obtaining permission to use Elsevier material. Recognizing the importance of preserving what has been written, Elsevier prints CO its books on acid-free paper whenever possible. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Hausch, Donald B. Handbook of sports and lottery markets / edited by Donald B. Hausch. p. cm. – (Handbooks in finance) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-444-50744-0 (hardcover) 1. Sports betting. 2. Lotteries. 3. Gambling systems. I. Ziemba, W. T. II. Title. GV717.H38 2008 796–dc22 2008012459 ISBN: 978-0-444-50744-0 For information on all Elsevier publications, visit our Web site at www.books.elsevier.com. Printed in the United States of America 080910111213987654321 Working together to grow libraries in developing countries www.elsevier.com | www.bookaid.org | www.sabre.org BOOK AID ELSEVIER International Sabre Foundation To the memory of my father, Robert C. Hausch, who would have enjoyed this volume. —D. B. H. To my snow princess and her wonderful development into an outstanding researcher of the world’s economic and financial activities. —W.T.Z. This page intentionally left blank Contents List of Contributors xvii Preface xix Introduction to the Series xxiii Part I Industry Studies 1 1 Pari-Mutuel Horse Race Wagering—Competition from Within and Outside the Industry 3 Richard Thalheimer and Mukhtar M. Ali 1. Introduction 4 2. Competition from Casino Gaming 5 3. Competition from State Lotteries 7 4. Competition from Professional Sports 8 5. Competition from Live Racing 8 6. Competition from Simulcast Wagering 11 7. Summary and Conclusions 13 References 14 2 Modeling Money Bet on Horse Races in Hong Kong 17 John Bacon-Shone and Alan Woods 1. Introduction 18 2. Variables examined 18 2.1. Outcome Variables 18 2.2. Independent Variables 19 3. Results and Discussion 19 4. Conclusion 21 References 22 Appendix: 31 Independent Variables Examined (Excluding Quadratic Terms) 23 vii viii Contents Part II Utility, Probability, and Pace Estimation 25 3 Empirical Evidence on the Preferences of Racetrack Bettors 27 Bruno Jullien and Bernard Salani´e 1. Introduction 28 2. Some Stylized Facts 30 3. Expected Utility 33 4. Distortions of Probabilities 36 5. Reference Points and Asymmetric Probability Weights 39 6. Heterogeneous Preferences 42 7. Exotic Bets 45 8. Concluding Remarks 46 References 47 4 Approximating the Ordering Probabilities of Multi-Entry Competitions by a Simple Method 51 Victor S. Y. Lo and John Bacon-Shone 1. Introduction 52 2. Theoretical Results of the Limiting Cases 53 3. A Simple Approximation 56 3.1. Empirical Analysis for the Approximated Henery Model 56 3.2. Empirical Analysis for the Stern Model 57 4. Conclusion 59 References 60 Appendix: Proof of Theorem 1 61 5 Modeling Distance Preference and Pace Character in Thoroughbred Turf Racing 67 David Edelman 1. Background 68 2. Case Study 1: Sha Tin (Hong Kong, SAR, PRC) 69 3. Case Study 2: Randwick (Sydney, Australia) 71 4. Qualitative Questions 77 4.1. Do Distance Specialists Exist? 77 4.2. Pace, Class, and Time: The Central Paradox of Racing 78 4.3. Jockeys: Distance or Pace Preference? 79 5. Discussion 80 References 80 Contents ix Part III Favorite-Longshot Bias in the Win Market 81 6 The Favorite-Longshot Bias: An Overview of the Main Explanations 83 Marco Ottaviani and Peter Norman Sørensen 1. Introduction 84 2. Notation 87 3. Misestimation of Probabilities 87 4. Market Power by Informed Bettors 89 5. Preference for Risk 90 6. Heterogeneous Beliefs 93 7. Market Power by Uninformed Bookmaker 95 8. Limited Arbitrage 96 9. Simultaneous Betting by Insiders 97 10. Timing of Bets 99 10.1. Early Betting 99 10.2. Late Betting 99 References 100 7 Examining Explanations of a Market Anomaly: Preferences or Perceptions? 103 Erik Snowberg and Justin Wolfers 1. Introduction 104 2. Preferences—Expected Utility Models with Linear Probabilities 108 3. Perceptions—The Weighting of True Probabilities 111 4. Perceptions—Informational Effects 112 5. Definition of Models and Implications for Combinatoric Bets 114 6. Using Combinatoric Markets to Test the Models 119 6.1. Testing Conditional Independence 123 6.2. Relaxing Conditional Independence Further 125 7. Conclusion 129 References 130 Appendix A: Pricing of Combinatoric Bets Using Conditional Independence 134 Appendix B: Data 135 8 Unifying the Favorite-Longshot Bias with Other Market Anomalies 137 Russell S. Sobel and Matt E. Ryan 1. Introduction 138 2. Biases Found in the Previous Literature 138 3. What Causes the Favorite-Longshot Bias at the Racetrack? 140 3.1. The Casual Bettor 143 x Contents 3.2. The Serious or Regular Bettor 144 3.3. The Arbitrageur 148 4. Is it Risk or Information? 150 5. Can the Model Explain the Biases in Other Markets? 156 6. Conclusion 157 References 158 9 The Favorite-Longshot Bias in S&P 500 and FTSE 100 Index Futures Options: The Return to Bets and the Cost of Insurance 161 Robert G. Tompkins, William T. Ziemba, and Stewart D. Hodges 1. Introduction 162 2. Methodology 166 3. Results 170 3.1. Results for Quarterly Options on Stock Index Futures 174 3.2. Results for Monthly Options on Stock Index Futures 175 4. Conclusions 178 References 179 Part IV Weak Market Efficiency 181 10 Efficiency of Racing, Sports, and Lottery Betting Markets 183 William T. Ziemba 1. Introduction 184 2. Extent of Gambling in the U.S. 187 3. Racetrack Betting Markets 190 3.1. Introduction to Racetrack Betting 190 3.2. Win Market 190 3.3. Place and Show Markets 195 3.4. Place and Show Probabilities 196 3.5. Optimal Capital Growth 201 3.6. Implementing the System and Empirical Results 203 3.7. Does the System Still Provide Profits? 206 3.8. Exotic Markets 207 3.9. Cross-Track Betting 208 4. The Football Betting Market 209 5. The Basketball Betting Market 211 6. Lotteries 212 6.1. Introduction to Lotteries 212 6.2. Inefficiencies with Unpopular Numbers 214 References 217 Contents xi 11 Point Spread and Odds Betting: Baseball, Basketball, and American Football 223 Hal S. Stern 1. Introduction 224 2. Efficiency of Odds Betting Markets 224 2.1. Horse Race Betting 224 2.2. Baseball 226 3. Efficiency of Point Spread Betting Markets 227 3.1. American Football 227 3.2. Basketball 230 4. Relationship of Point Spread and Odds Betting 230 4.1. Normal Distribution Result 231 4.2. Applications of the Normal Approximation 233 5. The Normal Model and Mid-Event Wagering 234 6. Summary 236 References 237 12 Comparing Efficiency of the Over/Under-Bets on NFL and NBA Games 239 Joseph Golec and Maurry Tamarkin 1. Introduction 240 2. The Sports Betting Market: Setting Point Spreads and Over/Unders 240 3. NFL and NBA Betting Market Efficiency 242 4. Conclusion 249 References 251 13 Arbitrage and Risk Arbitrage in Team Jai Alai 253 Daniel Lane and William T. Ziemba 1. Introduction 254 2. The Arbitrage 258 3. Risk Arbitrages 261 4. Final Remarks 269 References 271 Part V Semi-Strong Form Efficiency 273 14 Semi-Strong Form Information Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets 275 M. Sung and J. E. V. Johnson 1. Introduction 276 2. Semi-Strong Form Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets: Single Variable Models 277 2.1. Arbitrage Between Parallel Markets 278 2.2 Professional Predictions 285 xii Contents 2.3. Betting Volume 289 2.4. Post Position 290 2.5. Pedigree 291 2.6. Distance Preference 292 2.7. Single Variable Models: Overview 292 3. Semi-Strong Form Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets: Multiple Variable Models 293 3.1. Distribution-Based Methods 294 3.2. Distribution-Free Methods 298 3.3. Multiple Variable Models: Overview 300 4. Semi-Strong Form Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets: Conclusion 301 References 302 15 The Dosage Breeding Theory for Horse Racing Predictions 307 Marshall Gramm and William T. Ziemba 1. Introduction 308 2. The Racetrack as a Sequence of Markets 310 3.
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