FOOD SECURITY BULLETIN – 1

Food Security Monitoring System Highlights Data collected in rural areas in November 2008

Overall, in October and November, food security in was at a similar level as in April 2008. Sughd and DRD regions have seen an increase in the number of zones affected by food insecurity over the previous three months, while the conditions in Khatlon region seem to have improved in some areas. The food security monitoring in October and November identified almost 650,000 people as severely food insecure and 1.5 million as moderately food insecure (see table page 9 for more details). Three zones are of a particular concern: zone 15 (Vakhdat, Fayzabad, Varzob), zone 19 (Baldzhuvan, Khovaling, Muminabad, Shuroabad) and zone 16 (Gafurov). Further assessment of the situation in these zones should be undertaken with a particular emphasis on zone 15, in which up to 225,000 people were found to be at a risk of severe food insecurity.

Overview helped many households move peak in August, but remain quite from the severely food insecure high at 2.45 TJS/kg compared to The food security situation in the to the moderately food insecure. 1.42 in early 2007; they are at the country is at a similar level as same level as last year at the same The data reports that spring during the emergency assessment in time. Same decreasing trend is harvests (wheat, vegetables, April 2008. For the months of observed for wheat flour first grade potato) were lower than usual. August, September and October and wheat grains. Potatoes: Price The 285 farmers and key 2008, the situation has improved in of potatoes has also fallen but informants interviewed several zones but deteriorated in remains high compared to last year confirmed this data. These others (see tables next pages for at an average of 1.70 TJS/kg over harvests have nonetheless, more details per zones). Data from the past three months. Pulses: helped some households to the round one of the food security Prices have decreased slightly over stock up some wheat and monitoring confirmed that the main the past three months but overall potatoes for the coming weeks. issue is access to food as most of they are still uncharacteristically Losses are mainly due to the the households are still finding it high. Only in Gharm city the prices harsh winter, drought and in hard to purchase food and for many have fallen. The lowest price is in some areas locusts (see Box 1). the only way is to rely on Gharm city (3 TJS/kg) and the Hydromet data and reports from remittances or borrowing. IMF data highest in Khorog (5 TJS/kg). Oil: government agencies show that shows that the period from August After a steep increase in 2007, since April 2008 rainfalls to October has the highest in-flow of prices are going down (cotton oil) or have been below normal all remittances, which could explain stabilizing (vegetable oil). Prices in over the country and more stabilized food security levels have decreased more especially in June. Rains in early in certain zones for that time frame. significantly. Prices remain unusually October have come too late for Fears that the global financial high though across the country with most of the planting (except for crisis will negatively affect an average of 8.4 TJS/l for the very south of the country: remittances and see a massive vegetable oil and 7.4 TJS/l for Shartuz and in parts of Kulyab). return of immigrants have not yet cotton oil. Other commodities: Livestock purchases and been reflected in the data from the Prices of fuel and diesel have ownership have also shown survey, nor from IOM. However, recently gone down (except in some improvement and recent declarations from the Russian Khorog) and prices of meat and positive effect on food government that it will reduce by dairy products remain stable. security in several zones half the number of working Reports from many regions also confirming data from the immigrants in 2009 are worrisome. indicate that the price of coal has Ministry of Agriculture. In This should be closely monitored increased significantly (for example, general, it was found that when over the next months by IOM and in Gharm city, 1 ton of coal has households depend more on the Government. The Early Warning increased more than 100% from their own food production, the Indicator system set up by REACT 350 TJS per ton to 800 TJS this level of food security is higher. also monitors remittances, for this year). Because prices continue to be purpose (www.untj.org/react). Food price data: high, the majority of households in In July, the increase in value of Wheat: Prices in November the country cannot afford the daily pensions and of some salaries has have fallen slightly since their basic food basket of 2.92 TJS as FOOD SECURITY BULLETIN – 1

defined by the World Bank and the Scenarios and State Statistical Committee. Most recommendations households purchase food rather Box 1 – FAO survey on locust than grow it. The 95 traders infestation: results interviewed did not mention any In the next three months, the significant increase in demand for ongoing food, seed and cash FAO conducted an evaluation of the credit and data shows that distributions should help 2008 locust outbreak project and households in many zones have not affected households to either assessed losses, risks for 2009 and used credit in the past three improve their food security gaps in the fight against locusts. months. status or become food secure. The project benefited to 74,000 According to traders, the main Stocks can be built up for the rural farmers as they manage to reasons for the continuing high coming winter months. secure their crops and harvest. prices are wholesale prices and Monitoring of remittances Overall, 2 million rural residents transportation (fuel) costs. 75% of remains important as most of indirectly benefited from this them also indicated taxes as a the seasonal labour migrants are project. Awareness campaign and reason for keeping prices high in planning to go back to Russia in trainings were undertaken targeting local shops. the spring of 2009 while Russian farming communities. authorities have indicated plans “Unusual high food prices” is for lower labour quotas. Most FAO estimates that locust control in still the most mentioned Tajik labour migrants may face 6 Districts of DRD, 8 in Khatlon and difficulty all over the country. But difficulties in legalizing their 4 in Sughd (see map below) allowed other structural problems linked to status next year. Many might for savings up to 18 million USD. water and agriculture (lack of water) not be able to work legally in Damages are estimated at 3.6 are still affecting many households Russia, possibly forcing them to million USD mainly on pastures and their food security status, illegally emigrate with all the land. forcing some households to adopt precarious consequences. The negative coping strategies. These food security will depend on Locust have been developing earlier include reducing the portion size of favourable climatic conditions than usual and therefore control in meals, selling productive assets and the absence of natural many planned districts was not (especially animals) or relying on disasters (avalanches, possible affecting directly food cheaper food of a lesser quality. landslides). A resumption of cold security of many households in , Spitamen , Non-food expenditures at the temperatures would once again Jabbor Rasulov, Pyanj, Qabodiyon, household level have remained the increase already high and Zafarabad. same since April apart from fuel/energy expenditures and increases in education expenses translate into electricity and For 2009, survey of locust (October was the beginning of a new water shortages, impacting populations was conducted in academic year; new books, uniforms human diseases, irrigated crops October 2008 providing clear etc. were purchased) and, in some and animal reproduction and picture of over 150,000 ha infested zones, in health care. The recent survival. High levels of debts territories, most of it in Khatlon religious celebrations have also should be closely monitored in area. GoT has already allocated 5 increased the total expenditures of the coming months. million TJS for treatment but many the households. The average share Further investigation into the constraints such as cross-border of food out of the total situation in zone 15 is issues, droughts and obsolete expenditures remains high but recommended. That zone control methods may limit the reduced slightly (from 73 to 65%). continues to suffer strong effects of the control campaign in Energy expenditures remained low, shocks – drought, lack of water, 2009. likely due to mild weather. erosive coping mechanisms, high debt levels etc. Households For more information, please Most of the households have in the zone have few means to contact entered the fall season in a weaker improve their situation. Zones [email protected] economic situation than last year 19 and 16 are also of concern. and half of interviewed The latter in particular, as it households reported their receives little external economic situation in October to assistance for preparation for be worse than a year ago. the coming winter.

FOOD SECURITY BULLETIN – 1

Food Security Monitoring As households interviewed in significantly different from previous October 2008 are different than monitoring results. System – Background and in April 2008, comparisons Data was collected and managed by methodology should be made with caution.

the NGO CSR Zerkalo and data The April 2008 joint assessment Within each zone, it is possible analysis was conducted by WFP recommended improving the to compare results and start Rome and WFP Tajikistan. mechanisms to regularly monitor building trends. For the purpose The next round of data collection is the food security. of the FSMS, the same planned for January 2009 and will households will be used for each The approach used for the FSMS is also include nutrition indicators. round improving the one which best balances cost and comparability of the results over level of detail for a monitoring For more information on the results time and allowing for an system, rather than a one-off and methodology and for a copy of adequate assessment of the assessment. The FSMS gathers data the database, please contact: situation. every quarter from 665 households [email protected] and 475 key informants in all rural The low number of households More details on analysis areas of Tajikistan. The in each zone also calls for methodology can be obtained from: methodology is based on the one caution when interpreting the [email protected] also used for the joint assessment in results at a broader scale. April and was refined with the Food Security Cluster members. It is There may be a need for further available on www.untj.org. investigation when figures are strikingly low or high, or

Jamoats selected: 1- Panj, 2- Avzikent, 3- Loiq Sherali, 4- Qirquduq, 5- Hiloli, 6- Vanj, 7- Zarbdor, 8- Vankala, 9- Tabnochi, 10- Mujum, 11- Urmetan, 12- Khonaobod, 13- Yakhakyust, 14- Navobod, 15- Gumbuloq, 16- Utkansoy, 17- Alga, 18- Jilikul, 19- Balkhobi FOOD SECURITY BULLETIN – 1

Outlook Zone Situation Report Immediate/ Underlying causes April- Baseline information (district) October Severely Food Insecure Zones (more than 19% of severely food insecure households) All households have reported harvest failure as a In April, the zone was main shock from which very few have been able considered moderately to recover from. As a result many have already food secure though This zone seems to be started to sell animals, take children out of school households already the most affected by 15 and contract new debts. The large size of families depended highly on food insecurity over the (Vakhdat, did not help satisfying basic food needs. Moreover, remittances (still an past 3 months with Fayzabad, key informants indicated that migrants are important income in 89% of it population in Ä Varzob) returning from Russia, which would increase the October but greatly food insecurity: around pressure on the household. Structural issues such reduced), this zone has 300,000 people.1 as lack of education of the head of household and been affected by new the lack of agricultural assets are also an shocks, other than food influencing factor. price. Food consumption has gone drastically down and money available for food is lower than in April. This zone has been of concern in April due to Around one third of the 77% of interviewed households reported that food 19 high numbers of households are consumed in the past 7 days came from food aid, (Baldzhuvan moderately food insecure severely food insecure. compensating for a usually high dependence on , Khovaling, households. Coping Total of roughly the market. Here too harvest failure and price Muminabad, Ä strategies used by 110,000 are food increases have pushed households to send more Shuroabad) households in this zone insecure. migrants to Russia and to get indebted for it. The increase in health and education expenditure also are among the most contributed to worsening the situation. negative. Most of the households depend on the market for Households in this zone their food. High prices of food and low incomes were already identified as Two third of the (mainly coming from agricultural wage labor) have at risk in April. The zone population is compromised their access. As a result, more than also has the highest level considered food half of the households interviewed have used of non-educated heads of insecure (66%) among credit for buying food but their purchasing power households which was 16 which 29% severely. remains very low (biggest gap to reach food confirmed by this round. (Gafurov) Estimated total of food basket). Stocks are insufficient for the coming Ä This is the only zone were insecure people is winter months that will be hard on these unemployment and loss 182,000. households, especially the 25% that does not own of salary has been animals or any asset. Unless the slight increase constantly reported. High noted in migration will bring most needed prices remain the main remittances allowing them to buy food. difficulty faced by people. Highly Food Insecure Zones (between 11 and 18% of severely food insecure households) Most of the households depend on agricultural activities and remittances but 15% of them reported depending on borrowing and begging as Less households fall Around 40% of the under the moderately 18 a second source of income. The combination of population is food food insecure category Dzhilikul, low income, high prices and high reliance on insecure, out of which than in April (29/19%). Rumi, market (60% percent depend on it for more than 19% severely. A total Unemployment and Vakhsh, 70% of their food) make the households in this of around 200,000  chronic economical Sarband, zone still highly food insecure. Key informants people could be food difficulties have been Bokhtar) have confirmed increase of migration and other insecure. coping mechanisms such as buying food on credit reported again in (40%) also confirm the access problems October. households face in this zone. Food consumption score in this zone remains the October survey confirms same as in April. Remittances still constitute a big trends and livelihoods 14% are severely food part of the overall income but are in decline and observed in April. Food 2 insecure and food more households rely on agricultural wage labor. insecurity was higher in (Mastcho) insecure population is Salaries and pensions might also have contributed à female-headed estimated at 34,000. to increase access to food. Most are still highly households and 10% of dependent on the market for food but 89% own the interviewed are in this

1 Data from this zone are unusually high and additional field visit will be conducted soon to check whether data collection was undertaken properly. FOOD SECURITY BULLETIN – 1

animals especially sheep/goats. Migration has situation. New moderately slightly increased as many households are seeking food insecure households alternative employment. Main difficulty reported is come from previously harvest failure which might have a negative severe food insecurity. impact in the long run as food stocks are low (do not last more than 3 weeks). Most households cited high prices as the main problem in the zone which led 80% of them to contract debts to buy food. A high number of 22% of the households households do not own especially livestock and Serious increase in food interviewed are found 35% reported losses of livestock in the past three insecurity from 0% of to be food insecure in 8 months, impacting seriously on their food severely food insecure in this zone and 12% (Murgab, consumption. As a result, an increase in migration April to 12% in October. severely. Shugnan) was reported by 25% of the surveyed households Ä Many households only Total food insecure and confirmed by key informants. Many have 1 source of income population: 9,000 households rely on borrowing food from relatives and depend on markets. people. and friends. High level of human diseases was cited as an important shock. Few possess stocks for the coming winter. The main problem of food insecurity is access: from 55% of households receiving remittances in April, it dropped to 10%. Other income sources relate to agricultural wage labor and government In April, only 3% of the households in this zone One third of the jobs. Most households depend on the market for were severely food households surveyed food and 70% of their income is used to purchase insecure and 15% 4 are food insecure to food. The lack of assets does not allow coping moderately. The survey (Asht) (around 34,000 people) with the main problems: high prices and harvest Ä confirms few stocks and out of which 11% in failure. Instead, 80% of the households reduced shows a slightly worse severely. the portion size and numbers of meals, and decreased non-food expenditures such as on food consumption than in health. Key informants confirmed more arrivals April. than departures of migrants which might increase pressure on most vulnerable households. Moderately Food Insecure Zones (less than 10% of severely food insecure households) The situation in this zone has slightly improved Around 15% of the since April. Many households own livestock in this In April, the zone had population is 19% of food insecure 13 zone and have been benefiting from good prices of considered food households. Mainly due to (Tavildara, meat and dairy products. Food stocks are also insecure out of which high loss of livestock Nurobad, high and the relatively low dependence on the 9% severely. Total of à following the winter and a Ragun) market for food and the increase of pensions also 8.500 people are food contributed to improve food security status. (46% low reliance or access to insecure. rely on either pension or salaries). remittances in the zone. The main source of income remains employees/salaries for 40% of the households. Situation remains Survey also confirms dependence on market for Most indicators are roughly the same with food. No increase has been noted in migration. confirmed from April 14 9% severely food The slight increase in food insecure household survey: low ownership of (Gissar, insecure and 15% (from 5 to 9%) is not significant enough to draw animals, low levels of Shakrinav, moderately. Estimated conclusion. Irregular rains, harvest failure  education, unsafe water Tursunzade) food insecure (reported as main problem) could indicate that used remain main population:170,000 situation will worsen but households holds good difficulties. stocks of wheat and potato for the coming months. In the past month, many households relied on agricultural wage labor subsequently boosting their income and food expenditures contributing to Situation greatly 9% severely food an improved food consumption. Remittances improved from 19% 9 insecure and 12% continue to play an important role in the total severely food insecure (Dangara, moderately. Food income, more than 20% rely on government and high number of Temurmalik) insecure population: à salaries and therefore benefited form recent moderately food insecure 30,000 increases. Nonetheless, the number of households households. still relying on credit to purchase food remains high (50%). The number of out-migrants FOOD SECURITY BULLETIN – 1

increased in the past 3 months, contributing to reduction of an already high dependency ratio.

More households have been relying on Situation improved from remittances which confirms that the strategy 22% severely food adopted by households at the end of the winter is insecure but the number 1 6% severely food paying off. However most of the population of moderately food (Shartuz, insecure and 16% remains vulnerable as income sources are volatile, insecure remains the Khusrav, moderately. Estimated same. Survey confirmed stocks are not of long duration, half of them are in à Kubodiyon, affected population: debts with long period of reimbursement and if large size of families, low Kumsangir) 90,000 economic downturn in Russia materializes, they level of education for will be highly affected. Households can female head of nonetheless rely on strong ownership of livestock. households and high dependence on migration. Main shock remains high food prices but also reduced drinking water and human diseases. The Situation improved from households have been addressing those shocks 20% severely food insecure and number of 24% of households thanks to an increase of remittances as first moderately food insecure 5 interviewed are food source of income (and the number of migrants is greatly reduced. Survey (Khuroson, insecure among which still increasing) but also by relying more on confirmed high reliance , 6% are severely. agriculture and livestock activities over the past à on remittances and Ravan) Estimated affected three months bringing home one of the highest government salaries population: 75,000 income of all zones. Food still mostly came from the market and all households interviewed had (more households in the less than half of their food coming from own sample get their income production. from salaries) The households of this zone have good income (agricultural wage labor), good stocks (especially 12% of households fruits) depend for 40% on their own production, interviewed are food own poultry and sheep/goats and do not rely on Results are very similar to 3 insecure among which migration as much as other zones do. The main April period both in terms (Panjikent) 6% are severely. coping strategy to face price increases consists in  of food consumption and Estimated affected consuming less preferred and cheaper foods. in terms of food access. population: 14,000. Harvest failure was cited as an important shock and might affect food security of households depending on agriculture in the coming months. Despite the highest percentage of female headed households (31%), this zone manages to remain fairly food insecure thanks to good income sources Many households with 2 17% of food insecure or 3 income sources. 12 and ownership of animals. But stocks are not (6% severely for an Heavy reliance on (Kanibadam, particularly high and many households have still estimated total of remittances. Slight Isfara) not recovered from their main shocks. Apart from Ä 46,000 people. high prices, households indicated reduced salaries deterioration of food of household members that could explain some security. differences since April. Most of the food of the households comes from local markets where they spend 52% of their expenditures on food. Although households do not 10 Few severely food have productive assets and livestock (apart from High percentage of (Rasulov, insecure households donkeys/horses), they can rely on field crops, households with 2 or 3 Uroteppa, and very few agricultural wage labor and remittances for a income sources. Gonchi, moderately (6%). living. Harvest failure was cited by 25% of the  Households relying on Spitamen, Estimated food insecure respondents as a recent shock and therefore field crops such as wheat Shakhristan) population: 42,500. might have a negative impact on households’ and potato income in the coming months. But good potato and fruit stocks might limit it. Remittances, government salaries, pensions and agricultural wage labor have helped households to Reduction of the number 23% are moderately get out of food insecurity. At the same time, 83% 7 of food insecure might be food insecure. None are have contracted debts for buying food. (Khamadoni, due in part to change of severely food insecure. Households still use a high number of negative Farkhor, households sampled. High 99,000 people food coping mechanisms and do not own much stock à Panj, Vose) number of indebted insecure. apart from wheat. Food prices, water and pest problems might on the long run push most households confirmed. households back to food insecurity. FOOD SECURITY BULLETIN – 1

Almost no household relied on remittances in the past three months. Instead households received their income from the production and sale of field crops and from pensions and allowances. At the Members of households 20% are moderately migrate primarily for 17 same time, households have reduced their food insecure. None are studies abroad, strong (Gharm, dependence on the market as almost half got their severely food insecure. ownership of livestock Tojikobod, food from their own production allowing them to 40,000 people food à and good food stocks. Jirgatol) reduce their food expenditures and strong stocks insecure. for the winter. Harvest failure was reported as the High percentage of per main shock by 89% of households and the impact capita expenditures. needs to be seen in the coming weeks. This shock was mainly due to lack of water. This is the only zone where 12% of the interviewees reported relying on small business as Very few food insecure Large number of 6 a first source of income. Few shocks were household in this zone: sheep/goats owned. (Murgab, reported over the past 3 months but increase in 3% moderately. 2,500 Medium dependency on Shughnon) migration was reported by both key informants  people food insecure. and households. Main shocks were high prices and market. earthquakes. Small size households with good food stocks generated by their own production make up for most of the households sampled. 62% rely on field crops and 24% on livestock. 50% can rely on Food security improved in remittances in difficult times. Key informants this zone where 11 households mostly rely on Very few food insecure confirmed return of migrants in the past three (Ayni, Kukh. their own production. No household in this zone months to help in the fields (no respondent à Mastcho) reported out-migration). To face high prices and household reported harvest failure, 66% sold more animals. Reduced remittances compared to grazing areas and water quantity problems might 64% in April. have a negative impact on people’s livelihood during winter.

FOOD SECURITY BULLETIN – 1

FSMS - RURAL AREAS TAJIKISTAN - ESTIMATION OF NUMBERS OF FOOD INSECURE PEOPLE

Severely food insecure Moderately food insecure Total food insecure Zone Households People Number Number Number Number Number Number % % % households people households people households people

13 2,057 94,843 9 185 8,536 6 123 5,691 15 309 14,226 14 106,395 711,578 9 9,576 64,042 15 15,959 106,737 24 25,535 170,779 15 43,080 357,963 63 27,140 225,517 26 11,201 93,070 89 38,341 318,587 17 30,140 192,893 0 0 0 20 6,028 38,579 20 6,028 38,579 DRD 181,672 1,357,277 20.25 36,901 298,095 16 33,311 244,076 36 70,212 542,171

6 13,166 84,434 0 0 0 3 395 2,533 3 395 2,533 8 7,386 41,095 12 886 4,931 36 2,659 14,794 48 3,545 19,726 GBAO 20,552 125,529 6 886 4,931 20 3,054 17,327 26 3,940 22,259

1 67,534 410,143 6 4,052 24,609 16 10,805 65,623 22 14,857 90,231 5 45,066 314,729 6 2,704 18,884 18 8,112 56,651 24 10,816 75,535 7 51,006 432,047 0 0 0 23 11,731 99,371 23 11,731 99,371 9 18,351 138,492 9 1,652 12,464 12 2,202 16,619 21 3,854 29,083 18 73,618 523,260 19 13,987 99,419 19 13,987 99,419 38 27,975 198,839 19 22,835 180,413 31 7,079 55,928 29 6,622 52,320 60 13,701 108,248 KHATLON 278,410 1,999,084 12 29,474 211,304 20 53,460 390,003 32 82,934 601,307

2 11,982 77,652 14 1,677 10,871 31 3,714 24,072 45 5,392 34,943 3 26,187 116,665 6 1,571 7,000 6 1,571 7,000 12 3,142 14,000 4 26,266 110,672 11 2,889 12,174 20 5,253 22,134 31 8,142 34,308 10 100,864 531,843 2 2,017 10,637 6 6,052 31,911 8 8,069 42,547 11 18,640 90,519 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 58,980 271,166 6 3,539 16,270 11 6,488 29,828 17 10,027 46,098 16 50,933 276,858 29 14,771 80,289 37 18,845 102,437 66 33,616 182,726 SUGHD 293,852 1,475,375 10 26,465 137,241 16 41,924 217,383 26 68,388 354,623

TOTAL 774,486 4,957,265 13 93,726 651,571 18 131,749 868,789 31 225,475 1,520,360 Low numbers of households and sampling method call for caution in interpreting results and numbers presented in the table FOOD SECURITY BULLETIN – 1

Market Prices Basic Food Commodities all markets (TJS/KG)

10.00

9.00

Data 8.00 Average of Wheat flour high quality

7.00 Average of Wheat flour first grade

6.00 Average of Wheat grain

5.00 Average of Potatoes Somoni 4.00 Average of Pulses (Mosh - dried green pea) 3.00 Average of Cotton Oil

Average of Vegetable oil 2.00

1.00

- Jul Jul Jan Oct Jan Oct Apr Jun Apr Jun Feb Feb Mar Mar Dec Sep Sep Nov Nov Aug Aug May May 2007 2008 Year, Month Source: WFP, 2008 FOOD SECURITY BULLETIN – 1