The Security Council and Global Peace, “Issues and Challenges”
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Long Cycles: a Bridge Between Past and Futures Professor Adrian Pop, Ph.D. Lecturer Răzvan Grigoras, Ph.D
6th International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) – Future in the Making Brussels, 4-5 June 2018 Long Cycles: A Bridge between Past and Futures Professor Adrian Pop, Ph.D. National University of Political Science and Public Administration, Bucharest, e-mail: [email protected] Lecturer R ăzvan Grigoras, Ph.D. National Defence University “Carol I”, Bucharest, e-mail: [email protected] Abstract Developing an anti-fragile behaviour by enhancing foresight capacity is a mandatory asset in the risk society. Cycles of continuity and change are preferred topics in the fields of history, economics, and international relations. Although centred on the past, the long cycles theory in general, and George Modelski's model in particular, might offer valuable insights into probable futures that might be involved in the planning practice of international actors. By identifying recurring historical patterns, one could extrapolate future developments. However, the key assumption of the paper is that possible novel developments are bound to be influenced by a series of drivers, both trends and wild cards. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the predictive capacity of the long cycle theory by using future study methodologies. The present paper attempts to suggest some ways for doing that in a two-step progressive method. The first step is to identify the most important drivers that could trigger deviations from the extrapolation of historical patterns identified by the long cycles theory and to quantify the expected shifts in the distribution power by using four indexes: the Foreign Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) Index, the Global Power Index (GPI), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the State of the Future Index (SOFI). -
Archons (Commanders) [NOTICE: They Are NOT Anlien Parasites], and Then, in a Mirror Image of the Great Emanations of the Pleroma, Hundreds of Lesser Angels
A R C H O N S HIDDEN RULERS THROUGH THE AGES A R C H O N S HIDDEN RULERS THROUGH THE AGES WATCH THIS IMPORTANT VIDEO UFOs, Aliens, and the Question of Contact MUST-SEE THE OCCULT REASON FOR PSYCHOPATHY Organic Portals: Aliens and Psychopaths KNOWLEDGE THROUGH GNOSIS Boris Mouravieff - GNOSIS IN THE BEGINNING ...1 The Gnostic core belief was a strong dualism: that the world of matter was deadening and inferior to a remote nonphysical home, to which an interior divine spark in most humans aspired to return after death. This led them to an absorption with the Jewish creation myths in Genesis, which they obsessively reinterpreted to formulate allegorical explanations of how humans ended up trapped in the world of matter. The basic Gnostic story, which varied in details from teacher to teacher, was this: In the beginning there was an unknowable, immaterial, and invisible God, sometimes called the Father of All and sometimes by other names. “He” was neither male nor female, and was composed of an implicitly finite amount of a living nonphysical substance. Surrounding this God was a great empty region called the Pleroma (the fullness). Beyond the Pleroma lay empty space. The God acted to fill the Pleroma through a series of emanations, a squeezing off of small portions of his/its nonphysical energetic divine material. In most accounts there are thirty emanations in fifteen complementary pairs, each getting slightly less of the divine material and therefore being slightly weaker. The emanations are called Aeons (eternities) and are mostly named personifications in Greek of abstract ideas. -
Reposturing the Force V
NAVAL WAR COLLEGE NEWPORT PAPERS 26 N A Reposturing the Force V AL U.S. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century W AR COLLEGE NE WPOR T P AP ERS N ES AV T A A L T W S A D R E C T I O N L L U E E G H E T R I VI IBU OR A S CT MARI VI 26 Carnes Lord, Editor Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen Cover Preparations for evening flight operations on board the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) in March 2005. U.S. Navy photo by Photographer’s Mate Airman Ryan O’Connor. T:\Academic\Newport Papers\Newport Paper Lord\Ventura\NPLord.vp Tuesday, February 07, 2006 10:14:03 AM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen Reposturing the Force U.S. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century Carnes Lord, Editor NAVAL WAR COLLEGE PRESS Newport, Rhode Island T:\Academic\Newport Papers\Newport Paper Lord\Ventura\NPLord.vp Tuesday, February 07, 2006 10:14:13 AM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen Naval War College The Newport Papers are extended research projects that the Newport, Rhode Island Editor, the Dean of Naval Warfare Studies, and the Center for Naval Warfare Studies President of the Naval War College consider of particular Newport Paper Twenty-six interest to policy makers, scholars, and analysts. February 2006 The views expressed in the Newport Papers are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the President, Naval War College Naval War College or the Department of the Navy. -
Global Strategy Amidst the Globe's Cultures
Global strategy amidst the globe’s cultures: Cultures in individual cognition, states and the global system Nicholas D. Wright – v1 September 2019 – The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Department of Defense Joint Staff Strategic Multilayer Assessment Group, and requested by the Joint Staff J-39 in collaboration with USEUCOM, USINDOPACOM, USCENTCOM, USSOCOM, the Services, Department of Homeland Security, Department of State, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Further information may be obtained from Intelligent Biology (www.intelligentbiology.co.uk). A FAMILY OF PRODUCTS TO CREATE INFLUENCE This report is part of a coherent family of products that together provide a framework for successful influence across the spectrum of competition, including the Grey Zone. All are available from www.intelligentbiology.co.uk.They include: Principles of Grey Zone influence: • Wright, ND (2019) From Control to Influence: Cognition in the Grey Zone, Intelligent Biology. Outer space competition: • Wright, ND (2019) MindSpace: Cognition in space operations, Intelligent Biology. • Ed. Wright, ND (2018) Outer Space; Earthly Escalation? Chinese Perspectives on Space Operations and Escalation, U.S. Dept. of Defense Joint Staff. North Korea and Grey Zone competition: • Wright, ND (2018) Getting Messages Through: The cognition of influence with North Korea and East Asia, Intelligent Biology. Artificial Intelligence in the global competition for influence: • Ed. Wright ND, (2018) AI, China, Russia and the Global Order: Technological, Political, Global, and Creative Perspectives, U.S. Dept. of Defense Joint Staff. About the author Dr Nicholas Wright is affiliated with Georgetown University, University College London (UCL), Intelligent Biology and New America. -
Global Civil War and Post-Colonial Studies
Global Civil War and Post-colonial Studies Globalization Working Papers 06/3 May 2006 WORKING PAPER SERIES Heike Härting Université de Montréal GLOBALIZATION AND AUTONOMY MONDIALISATION ET AUTONOMIE www.globalautonomy.ca PREFACE Professor Heike Härting has engaged in a program of research focused on the relationship be- tween globalization and violence and how violence has tended to be rendered "normal" or "expected" in a globalizing world. This paper is part of this research program and begins with the concept of "global civil war" presented by Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri in their recent joint work. Professor Härting argues that their conception is too limited because it fails to take adequate account of the rootedness of such war in long-standing power relations of imperialism and colonial modernity. By failing to take these linkages into account, dominant, more wealthy countries can take a position of bringing civiliza- tion to the unruly and violent practices of so-called rogue states or other failing states. Such a position, she argues, verges on hypocrisy because the very problems faced in these parts of the world are linked intimately to the violence and racialization characteristic of imperialism and colonialism that formed these states in the first place. In bringing post-colonial theory to bear upon these questions, Professor Härting also makes reference to literary works focused on the civil war in Sri Lanka by Michael On- daatje and Jean Arasanayagam. The paper finishes up with some thoughts on why we are constantly faced with assumed permanent emergencies, a state of being even more pronounced since the declara- tion of war on "global terror" after the events of 11 September 2001. -
The Full 100+ Page Pdf!
2014 was a unique year for pro-wrestling, one that will undoubtedly be viewed as historically significant in years to follow. Whether it is to be reflected upon positively or negatively is not only highly subjective, but also context-specific with major occurrences transpiring across the pro-wrestling world over the last 12 months, each with its own strong, and at times far reaching, consequences. The WWE launched its much awaited Network, New Japan continued to expand, CMLL booked lucha's biggest match in well over a decade, culminating in the country's first million dollar gate, TNA teetered more precariously on the brink of death than perhaps ever before, Daniel Bryan won the WWE's top prize, Dragon Gate and DDT saw continued success before their loyal niche audiences, Alberto Del Rio and CM Punk departed the WWE with one ending up in the most unexpected of places, a developing and divergent style produced some of the best indie matches of the year, the European scene flourished, the Shield disbanded, Batista returned, Daniel Bryan relinquished his championship, and the Undertaker's streak came to an unexpected and dramatic end. These are but some of the happenings, which made 2014 the year that it was, and it is in this year-book that we look to not only recap all of these events and more, but also contemplate their relevance to the greater pro-wrestling landscape, both for 2015 and beyond. It should be stated that this year-book was inspired by the DKP Annuals that were released in 2011 and 2012, in fact, it was the absence of a 2013 annual that inspired us to produce a year-book for 2014. -
Michael Mann the Sources of Social Power Volume 3: Chapter 15
Michael Mann The Sources of Social Power Volume 3: Chapter 15: Conclusion I leave theoretical conclusions to my fourth volume, though it is already obvious that to understand the development of modern societies we must give broadly equal attention to the causal power and inter-relations of all four sources of social power – ideological, economic, military and political. This was very evident in this period, with its intensifying ideological struggles between democratic capitalism, communism and fascism, and its self-destructive racism; with its capitalism whose powers of both creation and destruction had never been higher; with its two devastating near-global wars and the global threat of the atom bomb; and with its intensifying nation-states and global empires. It is unlikely any one of these could be “primary”. In a varied world generalizations are hazardous. Each macro-region, each country, each region within countries, was different in one way or another, and this obviously reduced the homogenizing effect of globalizations. All countries are “exceptional” in the sense often used by Americans to refer to their own country. The myth of a unique American exceptionalism is deeply entrenched in American nationalism and in American politician’s rhetoric. But it is false. The United States’ principle exception in this period was that it suffered from serious white racism at home, whereas other Western countries had racism in their colonies. The US was not unique in having almost no socialism, since nor did the other Anglo countries. Though the US initially lagged in some aspects of social citizenship (though not in educational rights or progressive taxation) it caught up in the New Deal. -
The Civil Wars of the 20Th and 21St Century: Global War As Seen from Mozambique
The civil wars of the 20th and 21st century: Global war as seen from Mozambique Bjørn Enge Bertelsen Dept. of social anthropology University of Bergen, Norway [email protected] Paper to be presented at the panel “Guerra Civil em Moçambique” at the conference “V conferência internacional do IESE: Desafios da investigação social e económica en tempos de crise”, 19-21 September 2017, Maputo. DRAFT – PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT PERMISSION Abstract What one can label the civil wars of the 20th and 21st century in Mozambique – with particular periods of intensity from 1976 to 1992 and from 2013 until now – have profoundly shaped the post-independence era in terms of socio-economic trajectories, political subjectivities, troubling legacies and memories, regional divisions, and much more. What can such a protracted period of recurring instances of civil war learn us about war in general – at a global level? How can the harrowing experiences of violence and suffering instantiated on Mozambican soil inform our comprehension of war in a global age of permanent violent clashes, of omnipresent militarism and of an increasingly belligerent state form? Rather than insularizing or exceptionalizing the Mozambican civil wars – by way of emphasising local and purely national dynamics or by way of labelling or typologizing these in terms of macroeconomic or political schemata conforming to certain preconceived ideas of wars and unrest in the global South – I will in this paper attempt to draw on my own ethnographic material from Manica province as well as other analyses to answer such questions. The overall aim of the paper will then be to use the available material on the civil wars in Mozambique as a prism for analysing, understanding and redefining the nature of contemporary global war and political-military dynamics more generally. -
Ring of Honor Tickets
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Digital Capitalism and Global Police State
RAC0010.1177/0306396818769016Race & ClassRobinson: The next economic crisis 769016research-article2018 SAGE Los Angeles, London, New Delhi, Singapore, Washington DC, Melbourne The next economic crisis: digital capitalism and global police state WILLIAM I. RobINSoN Abstract: Transnational capitalists and global elites are confident that the world economy has recovered from the 2008 financial collapse, but there is good reason to believe that another crisis of major proportions looms on the horizon. Digitalisation and fourth industrial revolution technologies are driving a new round of global capitalist restructuring, yet they are also aggravating the underlying structural conditions that generate crisis; in particular, overaccumulation. Transnational investors have been pouring billions of dollars into the rapid digitalisation of global capitalism as the latest outlet for its surplus accumulated capital and hedging their bets on new investment opportunities in global police state. The concept of global police state allows us to identify how the economic dimensions of global capitalist transformation intersect in new ways with political, ideological and military dimensions of this transformation. There is a convergence around global capitalism’s political need for social control and repression and its economic need to perpetuate accumulation in the face of stagnation. When the next crisis hits, the Left and resistance forces from below must be in a position to seize the initiative and to push back at global police state. Keywords: digitalisation, fourth industrial revolution, global police state, overaccumulation, Transnational Capitalist Class, twenty-first century fascism, world economic crisis William I. Robinson is Professor of Sociology, Global and Transnational Studies, and Latin American Studies at the University of California at Santa barbara. -
Geo-Political Significance of Kashmir: an Overview of Indo-Pak Relations
IOSR Journal Of Humanities And Social Science (IOSR-JHSS) Volume 9, Issue 2 (Mar. - Apr. 2013), PP 115-123 e-ISSN: 2279-0837, p-ISSN: 2279-0845. www.Iosrjournals.Org Geo-political Significance of Kashmir: An overview of Indo-Pak Relations Naseer Ahmed Kalis* Shaheen Showkat Dar** * Naseer Ahmed Kalis, Junior Research Fellow in the Department of Strategic and Regional Studies University of Jammu.18006. (J&K) ** Shaheen Showkat Dar, Assistant Professor in the Department of Strategic and Regional Studies University of Jammu. 180006. (J&K) Abstract: Geopolitical significance is an important aspect of relation between states which have common borders. In case of India and Pakistan, geopolitical deliberations owe their significance to the very act of partition of India into two independent states and Kashmir as a disputed and divided territory between them. In this context, this paper will analyse the geo-political significance of Kashmir for India and Pakistan. There are strong evidences in the scholarly literature that the two states are creating an atmosphere of chaos, hostility and their citizens are battling with insecurities of poverty, illiteracy and underdevelopment. The duo states are acting as oppressor in Kashmir where thousands of people has been died and left their homes due to Indo-Pak hostility. The panorama of peace and human rights from last 24 years is in murky. Therefore, the geo-political, significance of Kashmir has put India and Pakistan on formidable wars from the last 65 years. The root cause of instability and hostility revolves around Kashmir, a landlocked territory, a bone of confrontation and a contributory cause of Indo- Pak hostility from the day one of their independence. -
The Clash at 20 Abridged What Did Samuel P
The Clash at 20 Abridged What did Samuel P. Huntington's "The Clash of Civilizations?" get right and wrong, and how does it look two decades later? FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM THE CLASH AT 20 The Clash at 20 i Gideon Rose Introduction 1 Gideon Rose The Clash of Civilizations? 3 Samuel P. Huntington The Summoning 28 ‘But They Said, We Will Not Hearken.’ Fouad Ajami The Dangers of Decadence 37 What the Rest Can Teach the West Kishore Mahbubani The Case for Optimism 42 The West Should Believe in Itself Robert L. Bartley Civilization Grafting 47 No Culture Is an Island Liu Binyan The Modernizing Imperative 51 Tradition and Change Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Do Civilizations Hold? 55 Albert L. Weeks The West Is Best 57 Gerard Piel If Not Civilizations, What? 58 Paradigms of the Post–Cold War World Samuel P. Huntington Conflict or Cooperation? 69 Three Visions Revisited Richard K. Betts The Legacy of Sam Huntington 81 Eliot A. Cohen, Francis Fukuyama, Gideon Rose, and Fareed Zakaria foreign affairs Foreign Affairs Collection: The Clash at 20 Editor Gideon Rose Introduces the Collection In honor of its twentieth anniversary, we’re revisiting Samuel P. Huntington’s “The Clash of Civilizations?” and the debate that followed. Read it and decide for yourself what things he got right—and wrong. Click here to watch the video introduction. on the origins of the piece: on how it looks 20 years later: In 1993, Foreign Affairs Editor Jim Hoge There are some things Huntington clearly and Managing Editor Fareed Zarakaria got right. Cultural variables are very were looking for something big and important, even in the modern world.