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M. Brilly Mira Kobold University of Ljubljana Slovenian Environment Agency

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1/22 3rd International Workshop on Hydrological Extremes University of Calabria, Cosenza, Italy, July 10, 2008

FIRST HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EXTREME FLOOD IN ON SEPTEMBER 18, 2007

Mojca ŠTRUKELJ, Mitja BRILLY, Matjaž MIKOŠ University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Mira KOBOLD Environmental Agency Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

OVERVIEW

2/22 OVERVIEW

 Measured rainfall.

 Hydrological analysis.

 Damage estimation.

 Conclusions. University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

MEASURED RAINFALL

3/22 Measured daily rainfall rate in mm September 18, 2007 University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

MEASURED RAINFALL

4/22 Measured daily rainfall rate in mm September 18, 2007 University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

MEASURED RAINFALL

5/22 Assessed return periods of measured daily rainfall rates September 18, 2007 University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

MEASURED RAINFALL

6/22

Station 30 Return period 120 Return period 720 Return period min [years] min [years] min [years]

Kneške Ravne 53 50 – 100 157 > 250 297 > 250

Slovenske Konjice 23 2 – 5 46 5 – 10 124 > 250

Lesce 27 5 – 10 78 50 – 100 173 > 250

Vogel 53 > 250 114 100 – 250 289 100 – 250 University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

MEASURED RAINFALL

7/22 Maksimalne dnevne vrednosti padavin v posameznem letu v

200 Železnikih 180 160 140 120 100 80 60

padavine [mm] padavine 40 20 0 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

Maksimalne dnevne vrednosti padavin v posameznem letu v Tržiču Annual maximal 200 180 daily rainfall 160 140 rates 120 100 80

padavine [mm] padavine 60 40 20 0 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS

8/22 University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

BAČA and CERKNICA Rivers

9/22

Bača na v. p. Bača pri Modreju 300 0

250 10

20 200 10 - 20 year return period 30 150 40 vodostaj [cm] vodostaj 100 50 padavine [mm]

60 50 70

0 80 18.9.2007 19.9.2007 20.9.2007 21.9.2007

Kneške Ravne - padavine Bovec - padavine vodostaj [cm] University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

SORA River

10/22 Selška v. p. Vešter 0

450 10

400 20 350 30 300 10 - 20 year 40 250 return period 50 200 pretok [m3/s] pretok padavine [mm] padavine 150 60

100 70

50 80

0 18.9.2007 19.9.2007 20.9.2007 21.9.2007

Davča - padavine hidrogram vQvk sQs

Sora na v. p. Suha

0

800

5 700

600 10 500 5 – 10 year 400 15

pretok [m3/s] pretok return period 300 [mm] padavine 20 200

100 25

0 18.9.2007 19.9.2007 20.9.2007 21.9.2007

Suha - padavine pretok [m3/s] vQvk sQs University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

Tržiška Bistrica & Bohinjka Rivers

11/22 160 Tržiška Bistrica v. p. Preska 0 140 5 120 10 100 >100 year 15 80 return period 20

pretok [m3/s] 60 padavine [mm] 25 40 30 20 35 0 18.9.2007 19.9.2007 20.9.2007 21.9.2007 40 Zg. Jezersko - padavine hidrogram vQvk sQs

Bistrica na v. p. Bohinjska Bistrica

120 0

10 100 >100 year 20 700 na v. p. Bodešče 30 0 80 600 return period 40 10

500 20 60 50

60 30 pretok [m3/s] 400 20-25 year padavine [mm]padavine 40 70 40 300 return period 80 50 pretok [m3/s]

20 padavine [mm] 60 90 200 70 0 100 100 18.9.2007 19.9.2007 20.9.2007 21.9.2007 80

Bohinjska Češnjica - padavine hidrogram vQvk sQs 0 90 18.9.2007 19.9.2007 20.9.2007 21.9.2007 22.9.2007 23.9.2007 100 Bohinjska Češnjica - padavine hidrogram vQvk sQs University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

Pšata & Rača Rivers 60 12/22 Pšata na v. p. Topole 50 0

40 > 100 year 5 return period 30 10

20 pretok [m3/s] padavine [mm] 15 10

20 0 18.9.2007 19.9.2007 20.9.2007 21.9.2007 Krvavec - padavine hidrogram vQvk sQs 25 90

80 Rača na v. p. Podrečje 0 70

60 5 50 25-50 letna 40 povratna doba 10 30 pretok [m3/s] padavine [mm]

20 15

10

20 0 18.9.2007 19.9.2007 20.9.2007 21.9.2007 Kamniška Bistrica - padavine hidrogram vQvk sQs 25 University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

SAVINJA River 1600 13/22 na v. p. Laško 1400 0 1200

5 1000 50-100 year 800 10

600 return period

pretok [m3/s] 15 padavine [mm] 400

20 200

0 25 18.9.2007 19.9.2007 20.9.2007 21.9.2007 22.9.2007 23.9.2007 Celje-padavine hidrogram vQvk sQs 30

140 Ložnica na v. p. Levec 0 120 2

100 4 6 80 8

60 > 100 year 10 v. p. Škofja vas pretok [m3/s]

200 padavine [mm] return period 12 0 40 18014 5 20 16016 10 14018 0 18.9.2007 19.9.2007 20.9.2007 21.9.2007 12020 15

Levec-padavine hidrogram vQvk sQs 100 > 100 year 20 80 pretok [m3/s] return period 25 padavine [mm] 60

40 30

20 35

0 40 18.9.2007 19.9.2007 20.9.2007 21.9.2007

Spodnji Dolič - padavine hidrogram vQvk sQs University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

DRAVINJA River

14/22 90 Dravinja v. p. Loče 0 80

70 5

60 10 50 20-50 year 40 return period 15 pretok [m3/s] 30 padavine [mm] 20 20

10 25

0 18.9.2007 19.9.2007 20.9.2007 21.9.2007 30 Sl. Konjice-padavine hidrogram vQvk sQs University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

METHODOLOGY OF COMPUTING RUN-OFF COEFFICIENTS

15/22 Hudinja na v.p. Škofja vas

Rainfall gauging Measured Thiessen station rainfall Polygon Area weighted rainfall rate in the [mm] weight watershed: Spodnji Dolič 105.4 0.4555 126 mm Vojnik 149.7 0.4157 125.1 0.0899 Rogla 108.6 0.0271 Computed surface run-off coefficient: Oplotnica 116.5 0.0081 0.36 Celje- Levec 105.4 0.0070 University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

ANTECEDENT MOISTURE

16/22 300

250

200 BOHINJSKA BISTRICA

KRVAVEC 150 LJUBLJANA - BEŽIGRAD

100 SLOVENSKE KONJICE Padavine [mm]

50

0 4 6 8 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 10 12 14 16 18 2.sep. 15.avg. Čas [dnevi] University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

COMPUTED RUN-OFF COEFFICIENTS IN SELECTED WATERSHEDS

17/22 University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

HYDROGEOLOGICAL MAP OF SLOVENIA

18/22

granular porosity karst/fissure porosity fissure porosity mixed porosity very low porosity

River basin Ložnica Sava Dravinja Savinja Hudinja Selška Pšata Tržiška Bohinjka Sora Bistrica Rainfall [mm] 146 137 242 128 118 116 126 199 203 154 Direct run-off coef. 0,62 0,60 0,55 0,49 0,45 0,42 0,36 0,32 0,21 0,20 University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

FLASH FLOOD CONSEQUENCES

19/22

Floods Erosion Slumps, slides Sedimentation University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

DAMAGE ESTIMATION 20/22 Final estimated direct material damage ~ 200 mio €

Damaged Number of infrastructure damaged objects Housing objects 4321

Traffic infrastructure - municipalities Economic objects 979

Watercourses Public institutions 61

Private business 192

Objects Roads 1590.8 km

Assests Bridges 147 Railway infrastructure Agricultural land Water supply network 16.9 km

State roads Captured water 48 springs Landslides 432

Threatened houses 29 due to landslides University of Ljubljana Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Chair of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

CONCLUSIONS

21/22  Immediate relief actions by Civil Defense units and Military  Relief actions on public traffic infrastructure and water supply  First preliminary mitigation (remediation) on water infrastructure finished  In order to prevent high economic damages in future, it is necessary to enlarge the network of monitoring stations in order to improve meteorological forecasting and nowcasting, as well as hydrological forecasting and early warning capabilities University of Ljubljana

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CONCLUSIONS 22/22 Instead of the final word ....

Prevention, prevention and again prevention, and in the case of an immediate emergency: efficient early warning system & Standing waves on the Sora River in Škofja Loka effective relief planning.

Thank You !