Ilembe District Municipality

ILEMBE DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY

QUARTERLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND

INTELLIGENCE REPORT

THIRD QUARTER 2012

JULY-SEPTEMBER 2012

Enterprise iLembe Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive

Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal Tel: 032 – 946 1256

Fax: 032 – 946 3515

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

FOREWORD This intelligence report comprises of an assessment of key economic indicators for the iLembe District Municipality for the third quarter of 2012, i.e. July to September 2012. This is the 7th edition of the quarterly reports, which are unique to iLembe as we are the only district municipality to publish such a report.

The overall objective of this project is to present economic indicators and economic intelligence to assist Enterprise iLembe in driving its mandate, which is to drive economic development and promote trade and investment in the District of iLembe.

This 7th edition of the report includes updated CENSUS 2011 data where available. Census data shows the following interesting facts about our district:  The population in iLembe is 606,809 people and is growing at 0.8% per annum, out-migration to coastal LMs persists;  The number of households is 157,692 and is growing at 2.7% per annum;  34% of the population is under the age of 15 years, 62% of the iLembe population falls within the working age bracket (15 – 64 years), and only 5% is over the age of 65 years;  The number of people over the age of 20 with no schooling has declined by 50% in most cases although Maphumulo still remains high with 31% of the population not having received any schooling;  Household services in iLembe are, in general, well below the national average with Maphumulo having almost no services other than electricity;  64% of the households in iLembe are formal dwellings and the number of formal dwellings has grown by 38% since 2001;  The district’s unemployment rate is 31% in general and 37% amongst the youth (15-35). Employment and youth unemployment is highest in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe at 49% and 58% respectively;  Unemployment and youth unemployment has declined in iLembe by 36% and 33% respectively since 2001. These points are elaborated on in section 2 pages 34-44.

News from this quarter is that the Entrepreneur final was held and 11 people were provided with the financial and intellectual support in order to grow their small businesses. The creativeness and perseverance of the business owners were an inspiration to all who attended. The Nonoti area plan is completed and a snap shot is given here, as well as the Business Retention and Expansion Survey of Mandeni. Lastly, Enterprise iLembe has been found to be the best out of 14 municipalities with regard to LED – see excerpts of the report in the news section. Enjoy!

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Table of Contents Foreword ...... 2

Overview of the iLembe District Economy ...... 8

Latest News and Developments within iLembe ...... 9

Section One: iLembe Economic Indicators and Analysis (Quarterly Data) ...... 15

Summary of the State of the Economy: Quarter 3, 2012 ...... 15

Business Confidence ...... 17

Building Plans and New Service Connections for KwaDukuza ...... 22

Transport Trends ...... 25

Tourism Trends ...... 29

Employment Indices for South Africa ...... 33

Ballito Chamber of Commerce Business Expansion & Retention Survey (2012) ...... 35

Section Two: iLembe Economic Indicators and Analysis (Base Data) ...... 37

Demographic Profile ...... 37

Socio-Economic Indicators ...... 42

Employment Indicators ...... 44

The Informal Economy ...... 47

Production, Expenditure and Investment ...... 50

ANNEXURE ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS ...... 58

A1.1 Population and Households ...... 58

A1.2 Racial Profile ...... 58

A1.3 HIV and AIDS ...... 58

A1.4 Gender Profile ...... 58

A1.5 Age Profile ...... 59

A1.6 Household Services ...... 59

A1.7 Household Dynamics ...... 59

A1.8 Education Level ...... 59

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

A1.9 Employment and Unemployment ...... 60

A1.10 Employment by type and skill level ...... 60

A1.11 Employment by Industry ...... 61

A1.12 Gross Geographic Product by Industry ...... 61

A1.13 Expenditure by Category ...... 62

A1.14 Expenditure by sub-category ...... 63

A1.15 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Investment Type ...... 64

A1.16 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Industry ...... 65

A1.17 Building Plans KwaDukuza ...... 65

A1.18 New Service Connections KwaDukuza ...... 66

A1.19 Airport Passenger Movements ...... 67

A1.20 Port Movements ...... 68

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Summary of Key Indicators The table below contains a summary of the key indicators for iLembe within the context of the KwaZulu-Natal province, and highlights the provincial and district indicators for 2011, and the district indicators for 2010 for comparative purposes. In the few cases census data was available, it has been used.

Table Summary of Key Economic Indicators Key Indicator iLembe KwaZulu-Natal 2010 2011 2011 Population 562 815 606,809 10,267,300 Households 134,275 157,692 2,539,429 Race (%) African 90.48% 90.71% 85.64% Coloured 0.46% 0.47% 1.41% Asian 6.91% 6.67% 8.34% White 2.15% 2.15% 4.61% Gender (%) Male 48.35% 47.84% 47.69% Female 51.65% 52.16% 52.31% Age (%) 0 - 14 years 33.19% 34% 31.9% 15 - 64 years 62.27% 61% 63.1% over 65 years 4.53% 5% 4.9% HIV/Aids (%) HIV Positive 16.82% 16.42% 15.68% Aids Deaths 1.27% 1.26% 1.20% Unemployment Unemployment Rate (Strict) 22.39% 30.6% 33% Youth Unemployment Rate 37.2% 42.1% Type of Formal 78.32% 76.81% 76.98% Employment Informal 21.68% 23.19% 23.02% (%) Skill (%) Highly Skilled 11.32% 15.34% 18.07% Skilled 40.50% 39.00% 43.03% Semi and Unskilled 48.18% 45.67% 38.89% Employment by Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.52% 10.16% 4.86% Industry (%) Mining and quarrying 0.52% 0.63% 0.80% Manufacturing 16.79% 16.47% 13.19% Electricity, gas and water 0.11% 0.11% 0.29% Construction 6.44% 6.33% 6.31% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and 21.98% 21.48% 21.73% accommodation Transport, storage and communication 3.26% 3.17% 5.59% Finance, insurance, real estate and business 13.58% 13.28% 14.73% services Community, social and personal services 17.19% 16.65% 16.59% General government 10.61% 11.73% 15.92% Gross Value Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.84% 4.47% 4.47%

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Key Indicator iLembe KwaZulu-Natal 2010 2011 2011 Added by Mining and quarrying 0.83% 2.14% 2.14% Industry (%) Manufacturing 29.17% 18.18% 18.18% Electricity, gas and water 0.93% 3.00% 3.00% Construction 2.83% 4.21% 4.21% Wholesale and retail trade, catering and 14.83% 15.91% 15.91% accommodation Transport, storage and communication 7.21% 12.27% 12.27% Finance, insurance, real estate and business 19.85% 18.37% 18.37% services Community, social and personal services 5.08% 7.12% 7.12% General government 9.43% 14.32% 14.32% Expenditure (%) Durable Goods 10.08% 7.90% 7.79% Semi-Durable Goods 13.00% 9.18% 9.09% Non-Durable Goods 36.02% 41.75% 40.80% Services 40.90% 41.16% 42.33% Domestic Fixed Buildings and construction works 32.57% 38.84% 45.24% Investment (%) Machinery and other equipment 49.22% 48.27% 39.45% Transport equipment 16.64% 11.49% 13.88% Transfer costs 1.58% 1.40% 1.42%

Source: Quantec Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012) with some Census 2011 data where available

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

OVERVIEW OF THE ILEMBE DISTRICT ECONOMY The iLembe District Municipality is situated on the east coast of South Africa, in the KwaZulu-Natal Province. iLembe is one of the 11 district municipalities of the KwaZulu-Natal province and is also the smallest District Municipality in the province, with a total population of approximately 606,809. The District Municipality covers approximately 3260 square kilometres and is divided into four local municipalities. The four municipalities are:  Ndwedwe Local Municipality  Mandeni Local Municipality  KwaDukuza Local Municipality  Maphumulo Local Municipality iLembe is located between two of Africa’s busiest ports, Durban and Richards Bay, on the primary economic development corridor in the province, and is therefore well positioned not only to local, but also international markets. The recent development of King Shaka International Airport and the Dube Trade Port just a few kilometres from the southern border of iLembe has magnified what was already a prime investment destination. Despite its strategic location, iLembe faces numerous economic challenges such as the high levels of poverty in the rural inland areas, which contrasts with rapid development along its coastal regions. The District has been proactive in developing Enterprise iLembe, a broad based institution aimed at facilitating local economic development, in response to its challenges of high rates of unemployment and correspondingly high levels of poverty.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

LATEST NEWS AND DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN ILEMBE Winners announced at the Grand Finale of the 2012 Entrepreneur Competition The Entrepreneur competition was initiated in 2011 in a joint venture partnership between African Bank, Enterprise Ilembe and the Ilembe Chamber of Commerce, with the purpose to provide entrepreneurs and micro-businesses with a platform and vehicle to move their business forward to a sustainable level of growth. The 11 finalists of the 2012 Entrepreneur Competition arrived looking nervous, but all handsomely presented and eager to give it their all and earn a place in the winners’ line-up. The grand finale show took place at the Pumpkin Theatre in Ballito on Friday evening, the 1st of November. The finalists all took to the stage and were allocated 5 minutes to pitch their business to the audience and judges panel, followed by on-the-spot questions from the judges. The Top 5 winners’ line- up included;

 Cindy Gien, who won R50 000 investment into her company called Domestic UIF, who offers a simple online registration service for Domestic Employers with the Unemployment Insurance fund.  Bhekie Buthelezi also won R50 000 investment into Buthelezi Enterprises who offer an Internet Cafe and printing service located in Etete.  The charming duo from Superwaste Recycling, Vusi Maduna and Xolani Sibiya receive R30 000 which will go towards the transport and logistics of their recyclable waste products. These two young men who started their waste recycling business four years ago – with two supermarket trollies and flattening tin cans by jumping on them! They now have equipment worth R70,000 but have still never taken a salary. However, when they sold their first batch of glass (30 tons broken with a 4lb hammer), they did take R100 to buy themselves one pizza!  Donald Manda, alias ‘Donald Trump’ of Donald Manda Properties receives R30 000 which will be used to employ and train 2 new staff members.  Toni Watson, aka ‘The Iron Lady’ (because she gave birth to her baby daughter during the final weeks of the competition), and owner of The Sarmie Shop receives R30 000 to expand her catering operation.

Benchmark Local Economic Development Report The KZN Department of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs (CoGTA) funded project “Benchmarking LED maturity in 14 KZN based municipalities” was released in the third quarter. The aim of the report was to provide the reader with a comparative picture of the level of LED maturity in the participating

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

municipalities. The conclusions of the report on iLembe were positive, with iLembe coming out best of the 14 municipalities with regard to LED maturity/effectiveness. The conclusions were as follows:  iLembe District has a separate development agency, which makes it unusual. The sheer number of staff within the agency has boosted its capacity above most Districts in the province.  iLembe District stands out among the municipalities participating in this study in the way in which it communicates with business. The district holds business breakfasts, provides quarterly economic indicators and intelligence reports, and has an LED forum.  This district has performed at above the provincial norm in terms of LED strategy at district level. This may indicate favourable levels of capacity within the LED function. The district reports 16 staff and no vacancies. This makes it the largest district in terms of staff working on LED in the province.  The district reports over R25 million rand received from donors in the past financial year. This district has been able to attract more donor funding than any other district in KwaZulu-Natal in this sample in the past financial year. This attests to the ability of the agency to attract donors, presumably by showing capacity to package projects, manage implementation and finances to a higher standard.  iLembe municipality performs far above average with regard to LED maturity in comparison to the other municipalities. The municipality scores well in both the ‘ability to execute’ and ‘insight & strategy” dimensions indicating that the municipality has a grasp on its economy and opportunities that will stimulate inclusive growth as well as has the ability to put good ideas into practice.  The business opinion survey found business confidence in iLembe high in both the formal and informal sector. iLembe District formal sector respondents showed a high level of interest in expanding. This reflects a positive outlook about the future. Key recommendations that came out of the report include: Profile business stakeholders (create a database of businesses) Help other municipalities communicate with business more creatively Consolidate internal LED review capacity Harness positive business outlook by supporting expansion Informal sector business improve its organisation Consider measures to tackle the perception of corruption/and or bribery iLembe Chamber Business Retention and Expansion Survey Following three weeks of intensive interviews with a total of 59 businesses the Business Retention & Expansion Visitation Programme (BR&E) for Mandeni & Isithebe came to a close on Wednesday 24 October 2012 at the Feedback Session. The programme aimed to identify opportunities for local businesses and to address obstacles to expansion and growth in the region by way of a visitation survey that was undertaken by a trained

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

task team made up of local volunteers. The key recommendations in addressing some the challenges facing the business sector in Mandeni & Isithebe includes; 1. Skills (shortage of techical skills) 2. Labour (labour issues affecting productivity) 3. Quality of Life (lack of social infrastructure) 4. Image of the Area (poor image of the area does not attract new businesses) 5. Networking (need for networking between private and public sector, access to information) The full results of the survey will be available on the following websites; www.ilembechamber.co.za and www.enterpriseilembe.co.za

Nonoti Development Project The Nonoti Development Project involves the conceptualisation and realisation of a proactive and strategic development framework for the Nonoti Tourism Zone which has been prioritized by the iLembe District Municipality. The development of a Strategic Environmental Management Plan; an Area based Plan encompassing the surrounding areas from Blythedale moving north to the Nonoti river mouth and detailed Precinct Plan for the Nonoti Tourism Zone has been completed. The initial development brief was to develop a ‘Mass Tourism Node’ at Nonoti, however the site is not equipped to facilitate a ‘Mass Tourism Node’. The Nonoti Precinct contains one of the last portions of coastal grasslands on the KwaZulu Natal coastline, which yields high conservation value. However, the proposed Blythedale Tourism Node is intended to facilitate the ‘Mass Tourism’ proposed for the Nonoti Precinct. The Blythedale Node currently has public beach and community open space facilities, however these are proposed to be upgraded. A general summary of the findings for the Nonoti site is given below.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

ENTERPRISE ILEMBE UPDATE (Q3 2012) Enterprise iLembe is the Economic Development Agency for the iLembe District Municipality responsible for Trade & Investment Promotion and Local Economic Development in the region. Since their inception, the agency has been responsible for an enormous amount of development and promotion within the district which has resulted in real infrastructure and employment creation. Some examples of this development include:

Agricultural Projects: Enterprise iLembe has been prolific in their initiation of diverse and unique agricultural projects. These projects have created 674 jobs thus far. These include:  Agri-processing hubs: This project involves the establishment of 8 hydroponic (tunnel) farms in the four local municipalities. Over R17 million has been invested into this project to date, 140 jobs created, and profits are already being reaped through the sale of high quality fruit and vegetables harvested. October saw the handover of this project from EI to special purpose vehicles.  Open Farms: This project involves supporting community-based co-operatives to establish viable agricultural gardens which produce vegetables such as cabbage, butternut, potatoes, onions, etc. for both community needs and for sale in the market as processed products. 600 jobs have been retained through co-operatives across 18 farms. R1.5 million has been created. Project closure in on-going.  Vineyards: ILembe Vineyard project involves the establishment of a primary Villard Blanc crop that will be grown as a catalyst to the establishment of a wine industry in the district. Vineyards in Nyoni, Ndwedwe and Maphumlo were planted and are currently yielding their first harvest. Thus far, 50 direct jobs have been created across the 10.1 hectares of vineyards that have been planted, and R5.5 million has been invested.

Tourism Projects: Tourism is an important sector for iLembe and a lot of work is being done to ensure that the sector is diversified and includes opportunities for SMMEs.  Nonoti Beach Resort: Previously, a mass beach node was planned for Nonoti, but it was found by various specialist studies that the area is not equipped for a mass resort and it contains one of the last portions of coastal grasslands on the KwaZulu Natal coastline, which yields high conservation value. An area plan has been developed where sites for community tourism nodes and agricultural development have been identified. The planned Blythedale Resort will go ahead as the mass beach resort.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

 Winery: The vineyards mentioned above will supply grapes to a winery that has been established at Collisheen Estate. A technical operator has been selected and handover will occur at the end of November. R3.9 million has been invested and 12 jobs created thus far.  King Shaka Tourism Route: The draft route report has been completed and is awaiting approval.

Arts and Crafts Projects:  ILembe Volume One, which is iLembe District Municipality’s very own CD is out. The CD is brewed with local talent from the district. It contains genres such as Hip Hop, Maskandi, Gospel and Kwaito. This CD will be distributed to radio stations and councillors.  A second CD will be released in due time, this will entail a competition where people can vote for their favourite song and stand a chance to win a prize, the competition is planned to be rolled out through taxis, where passengers will listen to the songs whilst on the taxi and vote via SMS for their favourite song. Prizes will be given to one lucky winner who voted for their favourite song, the taxi with most votes will get a prize and finally the artist also gets a prize.  A musical festival is being planned for next year March/April in honour of Ray Phiri. World renowned Paul Simon will be the star performer, it is planned to be held at Amatigulu in Mandeni.  Inyoni Craft Centre in Mandeni will be revived; plans are underway to put up a new structure where the old one was.  A crafter from iLembe Craft Hub Thembelihle Luthuli will be attending the International Cooperative Alliance World Expo in Manchester London from the 29th of October 2012 until the 03rd of November 2012.

Manufacturing Projects:  Bio-diesel Manufacturing: This project aims to establish a bio diesel processing plant, delivering vehicle-grade diesel from used oil (initially) and ultimately from Moringa seed (as mentioned above). A tender to handover the project to the technical manager has gone out. The awarded Technical Operator will be required to fund the remaining balance of the EIA compliance as well as the operations. The project has received the waste management licence and the next step is to seek approval for the Manufacturing Licence from the Department of Energy.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

 Informal market and iLembe pack house: The feasibility study has been completed and is under review.

Marketing and Communications: Enterprise iLembe are establishing and maintaining partnerships with various stakeholders and institutions in order to further the mandate of the agency.

For more information on these projects and a large amount of potential investment opportunities visit www.enterpriseilembe.co.za

Key Findings: Enterprise iLembe Update  Vineyards in Nyoni, Ndwedwe and Maphumlo were planted and are currently yielding their first harvest;  ILembe Volume One, which is iLembe District Municipality’s very own CD is out. The CD is brewed with local talent from the district. It contains genres such as Hip Hop, Maskandi, Gospel and Kwaito;  The Nonoti Area Plan has been completed and optimal land uses have been identified. These are primarily tourism and agriculture, with the coastal belt being reserved for tourism and Blythedale being identified as the site most suited to a mass resort.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

SECTION ONE: ILEMBE ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND ANALYSIS (QUARTERLY DATA)

Summary of the State of the Economy: Quarter 3, 2012

Quarter 3 has been very tumultuous with regard to the economy in South Africa, with labour relations being at the forefront of this. Mine worker shootings were broadcast globally and investors were frightened off as a result. With Mangaung looming, cries for nationalisation and accusations of corruption are increasing which only further provokes investors’ trepidation. The IMF recently revised down South Africa’s projected growth rates for 2012 and 2013 to 2.6% and 3.4% respectively. Interestingly, the IMF report (released August 2012) cited a lack of competition, particularly amongst publically run enterprises, and labour regulations that protect those with jobs but exclude those without jobs as major challenges to growth. This comes at a time where nationalisation is being debated and labour regulations, including BEE and labour brokering policy, are only increasing. Needless to say, South Africa’s macro-economic challenges remain as fervent as ever.

In iLembe, businesses are feeling the pinch as business confidence is down this quarter to 5.2 from 6.8 in the previous quarter, although the majority of businesses said that their business conditions have remained mostly unchanged. Expectations for next quarter are positive with the majority of businesses saying they expect conditions to improve or at least remain unchanged. The largest constraints to business growth in quarter 3 are poor municipal services, the small size of the local market, and poor infrastructure (electricity, water and roads). Tourism confidence has declined again quarter 3 to 4.2, however, future expectations show that most tourism service providers expect bookings to increase next quarter as peak season begins.

Due to some residential and commercial building being completed in August, completions have increased this quarter with regard to value and area. Industrial building remains low. The number of water connections and 3 phase electricity connections increased in quarter 3, however, the number of single phase electricity connections decreased. New vehicle registrations in Stanger are still positive in Q3 2012 (511), although they have decreased for the second quarter in a row. New vehicle registrations were positive in Maphumulo for the first quarter in a year with 53 new vehicle registrations and Ndwedwe remained consistent at 29.

Further quarterly indicators including employment, airport passenger stats, port stats, business and tourism stats are given over the following pages.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Business Confidence

The business confidence section is made up of the iLembe BCI which is based on surveys conducted online in the district, the national BER BCI which is also based on surveys, and the national SACCI BCI which is based on market analysis.

Enterprise iLembe Business Survey

Both the business and tourism surveys are conducted online in the month after the end of each quarter, and run for approximately two weeks. Emails containing the unique link to the online surveys are sent out to businesses that are registered with the iLembe Business Chamber, and businesses on the Urban-Econ database (please contact Urban-Econ on [email protected] if you wish to be added to this database and receive the quarterly survey results). There are no criteria for businesses to take part in the business survey (other than they must be located in iLembe).

Business Confidence Business confidence is represented by the number of respondents that are satisfied with the prevailing business conditions. The Business Confidence Index for Quarter 3 of 2012 is 5.2 which means that 52% of respondents are satisfied with the business conditions. The index has declined quite substantially by 1.6 points from quarter 2 2012 when it was 6.8. This is the lowest that business confidence has been at since the commencement of this survey as is portrayed in the graph below.

Prevailing Business Conditions Businesses were asked to indicate movement (increase, decrease, no change) in certain indicators within their business in quarter 3, 2012 compared with quarter 2, 2012. As shown in the graph below, the majority of respondents said that their business conditions had remained unchanged (between 50% and 60%). Interestingly, the remainder was spread evenly between improved and worsened conditions (between 20%

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

and 26% respectively). The most positive results were for the demand of goods and services which 38% of businesses say has increased in quarter 3.

The largest constraints to business growth in quarter 3 are poor municipal services, the small size of the local market, and poor infrastructure.

Future Expectations Businesses were asked to estimate movement in indicators within their business in the next quarter (3) in comparison to the current quarter (2). Expectations are positive with the vast majority of businesses stating that all indicators will either stay the same or improve in quarter 4. This is likely due to seasonal sales increases over the holiday/Christmas/summer period.

Business Profiles The majority of businesses this quarter are in the ‘Tourism, Catering and Accommodation’ (23%), construction (15%) and manufacturing (19%) industries. 61% of respondents are part of the iLembe Business Chamber.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

The graphs below describe the number of full time staff, average annual turnover and location of businesses who responded. The majority of businesses (39%) have less than 5 staff members, with 19% having 11-50 staff. The majority of businesses turn over between R2million to R10million (29%), and R150 000 to R2million (26%) annually. This profile suggests that the majority of respondents are small businesses who reside in greater Ballito, however there are a fair amount of large businesses this quarter (23% over 100 staff).

SACCI Business Confidence Index

Business confidence continued to fluctuate around an overall downward trend since the 2nd quarter of 2011. The uncertain and volatile domestic as well as international economy remains the backdrop to poor business confidence in South Africa and the SACCI BCI reflects the net impact of this situation. The BCI bounced back by 4.1 index points from the 90.9 in July 2012 to 95.0 in August 2012 – this is after declining by 4.0 index points in July 2012 to 90.9. The BCI was 3.6 points below the August 2011 reading. The short-term unpredictable nature of the BCI will probably continue until year-end unless the domestic economy undergoes substantive changes that would support more positive BCI results.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Source: South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry – Business Confidence Index (August 2012) Press Release

The BER/RMB Business Confidence Index

The RMB/BER BCI increased from 41 in the second quarter to 47 in the third quarter of 2012. This partially reverses the big fall registered in the second quarter. Of all the sectors, the new motor trade registered the biggest increase in confidence, jumping by 14 points to 79. Retail sales improved relative to the second quarter of 2012. The growth in manufacturing production slackened in the third quarter relative to the second quarter, but remained positive. While it is encouraging that the RMB/BER BCI did not extend its second quarter decline, the improvement in sentiment during the third quarter was small, with most of the respondents still downbeat about prevailing business conditions. This is reflective of underlying economic activity remaining weak.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Source: http://www.ber.ac.za/

Key Findings: Business Confidence  Business confidence is down this quarter to 5.2 from 6.8 in the previous quarter although the majority of businesses said that their business conditions have remained mostly unchanged. Expectations for next quarter are positive with the majority of businesses saying they expect conditions to improve or at least remain unchanged. The largest constraints to business growth in quarter 3 are poor municipal services, the small size of the local market, and poor infrastructure (electricity, water and roads).  While the RMB/BER BCI increased 6 points to 47 in the 3rd quarter, the improvement in sentiment was small, with most of the respondents still downbeat about prevailing business conditions; and  SACCI Business confidence continued to fluctuate around an overall downward trend since the 2nd quarter of 2011 reaching 95 points in August.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Building Plans and New Service Connections for KwaDukuza

The following section looks at the total area of building plans approved, submitted and completed; the number of new water connection made; and the number of new single phase and triple phase electricity connections made over the last year in KwaDukuza. KwaDukuza has been chosen because it represents the majority of activity in iLembe. Building Plans, KwaDukuza The graph below shows the total value (millions of rand) of building plans (including additions, alterations and deviations) approved, submitted and completed since January 2010. The total value of building plans approved in Quarter 3 was R466 million and the total value submitted was R399. These values are down from the previous quarter. The total value of building completed was R226 million which indicates an increase this quarter.

Source: KwaDukuza Municipality, info for July and September 2011 not supplied *total includes additions, alterations and deviations

The table below gives a breakdown of the total area (m2) of approvals, submissions and completions this year. The highest type of approved, submitted and completed plans is for residential building, with relatively smaller spikes in commercial and industrial building.

APPROVED SUBMITTED COMPLETED Reside Comme Indust Reside Comme Industri Reside Comme Indust Total* Total* Total* ntial rcial rial ntial rcial al ntial rcial rial Jan-11 14 118 12 900 4 355 34 696 5 652 0 0 7 158 3 141 0 0 6 012 Feb11 7 694 0 1 456 10 730 8 254 185 0 12 274 7 876 0 1 818 10 132 Mar11 6 967 0 0 10 115 16 308 2 201 479 21 325 10 220 0 0 11 855 Apr11 9 579 133 0 11 278 8 189 0 0 10 654 10 111 0 359 10 895 Ma11 6 340 0 0 7 972 11 329 7 170 395 19 881 6 004 649 912 8 267 Jun11 44 622 1 708 395 48 530 32 304 2 097 0 36 649 41 108 0 0 41 263 Aug11 1 811 2 097 0 4 752 16 252 1 812 0 19 125 7 628 0 0 8 068

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

APPROVED SUBMITTED COMPLETED Reside Comme Indust Reside Comme Industri Reside Comme Indust Total* Total* Total* ntial rcial rial ntial rcial al ntial rcial rial Oct11 9330 7934 0 20557 9618 0 1955 13 627 8064 0 0 8 537 Nov11 12131 0 0 13149 23947 1496 104 26 829 11182 0 0 11975 Dec11 21502 0 1955 24222 8073 624 0 10 306 9416 2843 0 12627 Jan12 9471 1 093 0 12228 4817 0 0 6 317 3360 0 0 3 598 Feb12 6696 0 0 8463 7385 0 794 12 513 10694 2 644 0 13 688 Mar12 13070 0 0 16188 17799 131 704 20 805 9531 2 270 0 12 368 Apr12 4395 131 0 6661 8632 25434 0 18493 5063 0 0 41115 May2 16376 130 0 34727 6663 0 2149 14002 7621 0 0 21094 Jun12 10444 22660 4511 5157 14330 154 787 7730 6409 469 2838 10482 Jul-12 5 433 154 0 8076 14494 0 0 18817 10760 0 0 10824 Aug12 12964 0 1875 16719 7369 3695 864 13909 11146 4535 0 15901 Sep12 22949 370 787 29735 19497 0 0 24452 5391 0 0 5598 Source: KwaDukuza Municipality, info for July and September 2011 not supplied

New water connections, KwaDukuza The graph below describes the number of new water connections made in KwaDukuza since the beginning of 2010. The number of water connections in Q3 2012 was 234, up by 107% from 127 in Q2. The number of water connections made increased in Q3 2012 in comparison to 2010 and 2011 which suggests an increase in construction of residents, commercial and industrial premises.

Total Water Connections, KwaDukuza 400 300 200 100 0 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

Source: KwaDukuza Municipality

New electricity connections, KwaDukuza The graphs show the number of new single and three phase electricity connections for KwaDukuza. The number of new single phase connections represents the number of new small residential (3 bedroom house) and low cost housing (including prepaid connections). The graph shows a substantial decrease in single phase connections between quarter 1 2012 and quarter 3 2012. Connections have decreased from 285 to 45 over

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

this time. The number of three phase connections represents larger, upmarket urban houses (with air conditioning etc.). Three phase connections are up from 15 connections to 17 connections in this quarter. The number of maximum demand connections (commercial and industrial buildings) is zero for the 7th month in a row with 1 connection that occurred in August and back to back to zero on September.

Source: KwaDukuza Municipality

Single Phase Electricity Connections, KwaDukuza 800 600 400 200 0 Q1 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 Q32011 Q42011 Q12012 Q22012 2012 Q3

Key Findings: Building Plans and new service connections, KwaDukuza  Due to some residential and commercial building being completed in August, completions have increased this quarter with regard to value and area. Industrial building remains low.  The number of water connections and 3 phase electricity connections increased in quarter 3, however, the number of single phase electricity connections decreased.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Transport Trends

This section describes trends in road vehicles, airport trends and port movements within iLembe, the province and nationally.

Vehicle Registrations

The figure below details the quarter-to-quarter new additional vehicle registrations per licencing district, while the table below shows the total number of vehicle registrations per licensing district. This is a good reflection on sales and economic activity in these areas. New vehicle registrations in Stanger are still strongly positive in Q3 2012 (511), although new sales have decreased for the second quarter in a row. New vehicle registrations were positive in Maphumulo for the first quarter in a year with 53 new vehicle registrations. New registrations in Ndwedwe remained consistent at 29.

Source: http://www.enatis.com/

The table below shows the total number of vehicles registered at the Stanger, Maphumulo and Ndwedwe licensing stations. There has been growth at all stations this quarter which is positive. Maphumulo currently has 754, Ndwedwe 451 and Stanger 39,314 vehicles registered. The total number of vehicles registered in KZN is 1,428,169.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Table: Total number of vehicle registrations per licensing district

Total Heavy Load Heavy Load Light Load Heavy Light Minibus Motorcycle/ Special Unknown Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle (GVM passenger mv passenger Motor Vehicle (GVM>3500k (GVM>3500k 3500kg or (12 or more MV(less than tricycle/Quad g,not to g,equp to less) persons) 12 persons) rucycle draw) draw) Maphumulo Q2-11 715 8 4 336 9 209 126 7 15 1 Q3-11 732 11 3 339 7 225 125 6 16 1 Q4-11 726 14 4 338 5 220 117 9 18 1 Q1-12 720 12 4 345 5 206 124 8 15 1 Q2-12 701 11 3 335 8 208 117 5 13 1 Q3-12 754 11 4 353 23 213 131 5 13 1 Ndwedwe Q2-11 362 4 2 173 1 153 18 2 8 1 Q3-11 387 4 2 182 5 165 17 2 9 1 Q4-11 366 2 2 183 5 151 12 2 8 1 Q1-12 399 2 3 190 3 166 21 3 9 2 Q2-12 422 2 3 195 3 185 21 3 9 1 Q3-12 451 2 4 205 3 201 22 4 9 1 Stanger Q2-11 36812 1452 1125 10187 137 20722 776 779 1579 49 Q3-11 36927 1443 1110 10206 147 20810 777 814 1572 48 Q4-11 37415 1423 1130 10439 144 21035 792 814 1588 50 Q1-12 38165 1435 1171 10522 152 21563 811 869 1590 52 Q2-12 38803 1435 1182 10564 150 22080 837 897 1605 53 Q3-12 39314 1414 1190 10690 135 22517 792 927 1594 55 KZN Q3-12 1428169 39411 38175 384490 7049 836266 46823 34077 39690 2188 Source: http://www.enatis.com/newsite/

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Airport Passenger Movement

King Shaka International Airport lies on the North Coast and is only approximately 13km from Ballito and therefore has a direct impact on the local economy. The graph below describes the number of passengers per quarter for each of the international airports. King Shaka International experiences the least passenger traffic at an average of 400 000 passengers per month out of the three international airports. Passenger numbers have remained constant this quarter at 1,178 million whereas OR Tambo grew by 7.8% and Cape Town International by 0.6%. Compared to quarter 3, 2011 all international airports have experienced fewer passengers, although KSIA has experienced the largest decline of -2.13%.

Source: www.acsa.co.za

Port Movements

Richards Bay and Durban contribute approximately 60% of all port movements in South Africa. This is economically significant for iLembe because iLembe is situated between these two ports and therefore, the activity of these two ports is a good gage of economic activity in the area in general. The table below gives figures for total cargo handled, number of vessel calls and gross tonnage of vessels for the previous year at Durban, Richards Bay and South Africa. The figures in red show a decrease from the previous quarter and the figures in green show an increase. While there have been fewer vessel calls in Richards Bay and Durban this quarter, the gross tonnage of vessels and total cargo handled is higher. All indicators have decreased in total for South Africa though which shows that RB and Durban ports have an advantage.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Total Cargo Total Number of Gross Tonnage of Handled (metric Vessels Vessels tonnes, thousands)* Richards Bay Q3-11 21 936 451 16 366 Q4-11 25 493 449 18 074 Q1-12 23 223 436 17 057 Q2-12 21 434 408 16 694 Q3-12 22.980 370 19.904 Durban Q3-11 21 230 1 092 31 452 Q4-11 20 799 1 016 29 766 Q1-12 16 160 941 29 896 Q2-12 22 128 1 021 30 766 Q3-12 20.049 1608 24.493 South Africa Q3-11 65 650 3 260 83 016 Q4-11 71 061 2 867 84 157 Q1-12 63 338 2 693 81 905 Q2-12 69 721 3 026 81 399 Q3-12 67.855 2523 78.030 Source: PORTS & SHIPS www.ports.co.za *As is customary the figures shown in this table reflect an adjustment on the overall tonnage to include containers by weight for which PORTS & SHIPS estimates an adjustment of 13,5 tonnes per TEU to reflect tonnages. This figure is on the conservative side with 14 tonnes or even more perhaps being a more realistic figure, particularly in view of the increasing quantity of bulk cargo which is now being handled in containers.

Key Findings: Transport Trends  New vehicle registrations in Stanger are still positive in Q3 2012 (511), although they have decreased for the second quarter in a row. New vehicle registrations were positive in Maphumulo for the first quarter in a year with 53 new vehicle registrations and Ndwedwe remained consistent at 29.  Passenger numbers have remained constant this quarter at 1,178 million whereas OR Tambo grew by 7.8% and Cape Town International by 0.6%. Compared to quarter 3, 2011 KSIA has experienced a decline of - 2.13%.  While there have been fewer vessel calls in Richards Bay and Durban this quarter, the gross tonnage of vessels and total cargo handled is higher. All indicators have decreased in total for South Africa. Year on year growth has slowed this quarter for Durban in particular.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Tourism Trends

This section discusses the results from the tourism quarterly survey conducted by Enterprise iLembe; and the number of visitors to the Sangweni Information Centre in Ballito this quarter.

Tourism Survey

The tourism confidence survey is conducted online in the month after the end of each quarter, and is run for approximately two weeks. Emails containing the unique link to the online surveys are sent out to tourism places of accommodation on the Urban-Econ database (please contact Urban-Econ on 031 202 9673 if you wish to be added to this database and receive the quarterly survey results).

Tourism Business Confidence Similarly to the business survey, business confidence for tourism in iLembe is represented by the number of respondents that are satisfied with the prevailing tourism conditions. It is clear from the graph below that tourism confidence (blue line) has declined again this quarter to 4.2. This means that more people are unsatisfied with the prevailing tourism business conditions than are satisfied. Confidence is still higher this quarter, however, when compared to quarter 3 of 2011. Reasons given for poor business confidence include poor municipal services, poor marketing and high costs of rates and property.

Prevailing Business Conditions (Tourism) The graph below shows the trend for demand for tourism services over the previous year. It is positive to see that 25% of respondents experienced high demand in quarter 3, increased from only 15% in quarter 2. However, the majority of respondents (45%) experienced low demand in quarter 3 – unchanged from quarter 2.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

The graph below describes occupancy as compared to the previous quarter and the previous year. 42% of all respondents say that occupancy has decreased in comparison to both the previous quarter and the previous year. 32% say that occupancy has increased in comparison the previous year, while 26% say that it has remained unchanged.

The table below shows the occupancy levels as stated by respondents which confirm the sentiment reflected in the previous graph which is that occupancy/demand has been steadily decreasing over the previous year. Occupancy Trend Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Less than 20% 5% 10% 15% 22% 20% to 40% 21% 19% 46% 44% 41% to 60% 21% 52% 23% 28% 61% to 80% 42% 14% 15% 6% Over 80% 11% 5% 0% 0%

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Future Expectations (Tourism) 58% of respondents expect bookings to increase over the next quarter (Q4 2012), up from 23% in the previous quarter. This is expected due to the tourism peak season falling partly over the next quarter.

Number of tourists visiting Sangweni Tourism Information Centre, 2011

The number of people who make any type of query at the Sangweni Tourism Information Office in Ballito is recorded monthly and gives an indication of the number of new tourists visiting Ballito. This does not represent actual figures for the North Coast but gives a helpful indication of trends based on a segment of tourists in the North Coast. The number of foreign visitors to the Sangweni tourism information centre has decreased this quarter by 60% to 73 visitors. This number is the lowest since January 2011. However, the number of domestic visitors has increased this quarter by 66% to 689 tourists which is promising.

Source: Sangweni Tourism Information Centre

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Key Findings: Tourism  Tourism confidence has declined again quarter 3 to 4.2, however, future expectations show that most tourism service providers expect bookings to increase next quarter as peak season begins.  Four the fifth quarter in a row the majority of service providers have stated that occupancy has been less than the same time the previous year which shows a constant decline in occupancy levels. This is a concerning trend. Reasons given for low business confidence in tourism include poor municipal services, poor marketing and high costs of rates and property.  The number of foreign visitors to the Sangweni tourism information centre has decreased this quarter by 60% to 73 visitors. This number is the lowest since January 2011. However, the number of domestic visitors has increased this quarter by 66% to 689 tourists which is promising.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Employment Indices for South Africa

The following employment indices and indicators are drawn from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey released by StatsSA, and the Adcorp Employment Index which is released by Adcorp monthly. These are for South Africa and KZN as quarterly data is not available for iLembe as yet.

Quarterly Labour Force Survey

The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) is a household-based sample survey conducted by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). It collects data on the labour market activities of individuals aged 15 years and above who live in South Africa. The labour force in South Africa increased by 397 000 persons between Q2:2012 and Q3:2012. This increase was reflected in an increase in the number of both employed persons (198 000) and unemployed persons (197 000), which saw the unemployment rate increasing by 0,6 of a percentage point from 24,9% to 25,5% in Q3:2012. The Q3:2012 rise in employment translates into an increase of 670 000 in the number of employed persons since Q3:2010, although this level is still 382 000 below the peak in employment of 14million reached in Q4:2008. The unemployment rate in KZN is still lower than SA at 21.3%, although it increased this quarter by 1.5% mostly due to an increase in the labour force participation rate of 1%. Employment increased by 13 000 between Q2:2012 and Q3:2012. The KZN stats are given in the table below. Sectors that lost jobs in Q3:2012 include trade, utilities, mining and agriculture.

Source: Statistics South Africa, Quarterly Labour Force Survey, Quarter 2, 2012

Adcorp Employment Index

Employment shrank in August, falling at an annualized rate of 0.23%. This follows sharp declines of 3.1% in May and 2.0% in June and stalled employment in July. South Africa faces a very real prospect of a jobs recession, being six consecutive months of declines in employment. Most of the job losses during August were in the formal sector, which shed 14,382 jobs whereas informal sector employment rose by a brisk 2.0%, representing the 14th consecutive monthly rise. The services sectors (trade, transport, finance and

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

community services) gained 14,000 jobs, whereas the primary and secondary sectors (mining, manufacturing and construction) shed 16,000 jobs.

Key Findings: Employment  According to the QLFS, the unemployment rate in KZN is still lower than SA at 21.3%, although it increased this quarter by 1.5% mostly due to an increase in the labour force participation rate of 1%. Employment increased by 13 000 between Q2:2012 and Q3:2012. Sectors that lost jobs in Q3:2012 include trade, utilities, mining and agriculture.  According to Adcorp, employment shrank in August, falling at an annualized rate of 0.23%. This follows sharp declines of 3.1% in May and 2.0% in June and stalled employment in July. South Africa faces a very real prospect of a jobs recession, being six consecutive months of declines in employment.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Ballito Chamber of Commerce Business Expansion & Retention Survey (2012)

In 2011 the Ballito Chamber of Commerce Tourism and Industry implemented its first business retention and expansion programme. Following the success of the programme, and recognising that up to 80% of all new jobs are created by the growth of existing business, the Chamber with support from Itala Bank and funding from the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC), decided to implement a programme in the Isithebe Industrial Estate. The programme was launched on 6 September 2012.  The majority of firms interviewed (72%) are in wholesale retail or motor trade whilst about 15% are wholesale, retail and motor trade. Out of the 59 respondents 3 were in construction and building and one in transport.  Almost 80% of firms are locally owned, with the remainder of the 10% being branches of either national or international companies.Almost all businesses are locally owned.  Almost 77% of the respondents are well established having being in Isithebe for over 10 years, with 12% being in existence for about 5 years. Only 2 businesses interviewed have been in Isithebe for less than 1 year.  National customers (around South Africa) are the main source of sales for 53% of the businesses surveyed while another 20% focus predominantly on the KwaZulu Natal and an equal amount do business with local customers from in and around Mandeni. Only 8% focus their sales internationally.

Employment Between them the businesses surveyed employ 4831 men and 3633 women, i.e., a total of 8464. Of these 85% are full time, 7% part time and 8% are casuals or contractors. In light of the recession 40% of the respondents said they had decreased the number of people employed over the last two years while almost the same amount 38% said there had been no change in numbers. The reasons cited include economic restraint conditions, or closure of specific company departments, and poor labour relations. A quarter of respondents (21%) have increased the number of people employed mostly due to business expansions, and increased production demands. More optimistically, 36% of businesses interviewed expect to employ more people over the next two years, while about 46% expect their numbers to remain the same due to projected business growth and expansion.

Business Environment Relative cost of land and property was cited by 44% of businesses interviewed, as the main advantage of doing business in Isithebe, whilst 40% feel that reliability of electricity and water and access to customers are the main advantages. The most frequently (47%) mentioned disadvantage was high crime rate. Next on the list for

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

an equal number of respondents (42%) of businesses was availability of skills locally and access to suppliers. The cost and reliability of transport and access to customers were also disadvantages for many businesses in Isithebe. With the onset of an oppressive economic climate, 45% of businesses said sales had decreased over the last two years. The majority of businesses however have optimistic outlooks for the future with 49% expect sales to increase over the next 2 years.

Business Opportunities The vast majority (96%) cited “availability” as the reason for purchasing from outside of Mandeni. Most of these products are specific raw materials needed in manufacturing, but a vast number also cited the need for stationery. Other products that they would like purchase locally or have a bigger pool to source from include basic hardware and fresh produce. There was a strong opinion about on what new businesses might succeed in Isithebe. The most frequently mentioned was a stationery and general office equipment store, as well as a restaurant and take away store. Other suggestions were businesses who sell electrical components, and a major logistics/transport hub.

Future Plans On the other hand 70% of business people say they have plans to expand or change their businesses. Some intend to acquire bigger premises or open new company branches; many are diversifying into new products or services. Most interviewees see new machinery and equipment (56%) and improved staff skills (43%) and new products (43%) as the key to improved performance in the year ahead. Improved labour relations (34%) would also help. Other ideas include trade information and improved management skills.

Key Findings: Business Retention and Expansion Survey  Labour laws and regulations are seen by 70% as a constraint to growth.  Businesses supplying goods and services to factories in Isithebe are facing a declining market as firms close or relocate.  The availability of artisans and skilled machinists is a constraint to growth.  Access to suppliers, maintenance, repairs, service and spares is a disadvantage.  Transport is increasingly costly; road transport is the only option since the rail service was withdrawn.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

SECTION TWO: ILEMBE ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND ANALYSIS (BASE DATA) Most socio-economic data is not available on a quarterly basis at a District and Local Municipal level. This section comprises of the most recent annual economic intelligence and statistical analysis available for iLembe and its LMs. It is broken down into various sub-sections, which include a demographic profile; a socio- economic profile; education, employment and skills; and economic activity. Where Census data is available, it has been updated. Where census data is not yet available, Quantec Regional Data for 2011 has been used. Which source of data has been used is indicated at the bottom of each graph.

Demographic Profile

Population and Households

Recent Census results show that the population in iLembe is 606,809 people and is growing at 0.8% per annum. The trend of migration from rural local municipalities of Maphumulo and Ndwedwe to coastal and more urban LMs of Mandeni and especially KwaDukuza is evident. The number of households is 157,692 and is growing at 2.7% per annum. Households in KwaDukuza have grown at a fairly high rate of 4.8% per annum, whereas households in Maphumulo have declined by 1%. Average household size is 3.8 and the percentage of female headed households is 45.8% which is above the national average of 41%, but average for KZN.

Table Population and Households (2011) Population Households

Number Population Number Household Average Female Growth (% Growth (% Household Headed p.a.) p.a.) Size Households % iLembe 606,809 0.80 157,692 2.7% 3.8 45.8 Maphumulo 96,724 -2.21 19,973 -1.0% 4.8 62.1 Mandeni 138,078 0.81 38,235 2.9% 3.6 48.6 KwaDukuza 231,187 3.20 70,284 4.8% 3.3 36.7 Ndwedwe 140,820 -0.27 29,200 1.4% 4.8 52.8

Source: StatsSA, Census 2011

Population Groups

The graph below displays the split of the population of the district and local municipalities by population group. For the district and all local municipalities besides KwaDukuza, Africans comprise over 90% of the total

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

population, with KwaDukuza having the largest Asian population (predominately Indian) of 18.3%. KwaDukuza also contributes the largest portion of Whites (5.3%) of which a large number reside in the urban area of Ballito. Maphumulo comprises the largest African population (99.9%). In terms of average yearly growth rates, the Black and Asian populations declined slightly over the previous 5 years, whereas the coloured and white populations experienced a positive growth rate.

Graph Racial Profile for 2011

Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)

Gender Profile

The graph below displays the gender distribution of the district and local populations. There are 91 males in iLembe for every 100 females. KwaDukuza is the most even at almost 50% each, whereas Maphumulo is the most uneven with only 81 males for every 100 females.

Graph Gender Profile 2011

Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012)

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Age Profile

The graph below provides an indication of the age distribution within the district. 34% of the district’s population is under the age of 15, 61% is made up of the working age population (15-64), and only 5% are 65 and over. The youngest population is found in Maphumulo (41%) and KwaDukuza has the highest working age population (67%).

Graph Age Distribution for 2011

Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012)

The dependency ratio describes the number of dependents per 100 people between the age of 15 and 64. Dependents are people who cannot work due to their young (under the age of 15), or old (over the age of 65) age. A high dependency ratio is a large burden to carry for carers who are in many cases unemployed. The highest dependency ratio of almost 90 people per 100 working age people is in Maphumulo and the lowest is in 50 in KwaDukuza. The average for iLembe is 63.

Graph Dependency Ratio

Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012)

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Education Profile

The number of people over the age of 20 with no schooling has declined by 50% in most cases although Maphumulo still remains high with 31% of the population not having received any schooling. The number of people with higher education has decreased from 3.7% to 3.1% in 2011 which is alarming and shows possible out migration of highly skilled workers. The number of people with matric has increased to 26.6% in 2011 which is a per cent less than the average for South Africa. It is promising to see that 91.3% of all children between the ages of 6 and 13 are enrolled in primary education.

Table Education Profile, 2011  Education Profile  No Schooling Higher Education Matric Primary Educational Enrolment aged 6-13  2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 iLembe 29.8 15.3 3.7 3.1 17.1 26.6 87.9 91.3 Maphumulo 49.0 31.2 2.6 1.7 9.4 21.9 89.3 91.5 Mandeni 19.2 10.1 3.6 2.0 22.3 30.6 89.3 90.9 KwaDukuza 20.6 9.7 5.7 5.1 21.1 28.2 85.2 91.2 Ndwedwe 39.4 22.2 1.7 1.3 12.0 22.1 87.8 91.5

Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012)

HIV/AIDS Deaths

The final demographic indicator is that of HIV positive individuals and AIDS Deaths recorded. The graph below displays these trends. In 2011, Mandeni had the highest incidence of HIV with almost 20% of the population being infected by the virus, while 16.4%of the district population were infected (down from 16.8% in 2010). This is 1% higher than the average for the province. The number of HIV infections increased by 0.7% in 2011.

Graph HIV Positive and AIDS deaths in 2011

Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Key Findings: Demographic Profile  Recent Census results show that the population in iLembe is 606,809 people and is growing at 0.8% per annum, out-migration to coastal LMs persists;  The number of households is 157,692 and is growing at 2.7% per annum;  34% of the population is under the age of 15 years, 62% of the iLembe population falls within the working age bracket (15 – 64 years), and only 5% is over the age of 65 years.  The number of people over the age of 20 with no schooling has declined by 50% in most cases although Maphumulo still remains high with 31% of the population not having received any schooling  In 2011, Mandeni had the highest incidence of HIV with almost 20% of the population being infected by the virus, while 16.4%of the district population were infected (down from 16.8% in 2010).

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Socio-Economic Indicators

Five socio-economic indicators are assessed before moving onto an analysis of growth indicators. The indicators analysed below are used as a measure of growth of social infrastructure such refuse removal, electricity, access to water, type of housing and type of toilets.

Household Services

Household services in iLembe are, in general, well below the national average. The number of houses with a flush toilet connected to sewerage on their property has increased by only 1% to 22.5% in 2011 (average for KZN is 40%). The percentage of houses with weakly refuse removal is 34%, but is as low as 2% in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe and as high as 60% in KwaDukuza. 24% of houses have piped water inside the dwelling which is half the national average. 71.4% of all houses have electricity. It is clear that KwaDukuza and Mandeni both have below average service delivery, while Maphumulo and Ndwedwe have near to no services at all, electricity being the only exception. This is indicative of municipalities with a severe service infrastructure backlog and a scattered settlement pattern that often comes with traditional land.

Table Household Services, 2011  HOUSEHOLDS SERVICES  Flush Toilet Weekly Refuse Piped Water Electricity for connected to Removal % Inside Dwelling % Lighting % sewerage %

 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 iLembe 21.5 22.5 23.1 34.4 15.2 23.7 50.8 71.4 Maphumulo 2.2 2.2 1.2 1.9 0.6 6.3 17.5 33.7 Mandeni 30.5 26.4 29.8 27.5 21.2 25.8 63.8 82.5 KwaDukuza 34.2 33.7 40.8 60.7 25.4 33.6 73.9 90.2 Ndwedwe 5.5 4.7 2.7 2.3 2.9 9.3 23.9 37.3 SOUTH AFRICA 50.0 57 55.4 62.1 32.5 46.3 70.2 84.7 KWAZULU-NATAL 38.3 40.4 48.5 51.5 29.5 40.0 61.7 77.9 Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012)

Type of Dwelling

64% of the households in iLembe are formal dwellings and the number of formal dwellings has grown by 38% since 2001. This is highest in KwaDukuza (64%) and lowest in Maphumulo (22.9%). 57% of these dwellings are owned or being paid off.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Table Percentage of formal dwellings and ownership, Census 2011  Formal Dwellings % % Housing owned/paying off  2001 2011 % change 2001 2011 % change

iLembe 46.7 64.4 38% 48.1 56.5 17% Maphumulo 22.9 40.8 78% 53.2 80.9 52% Mandeni 54.0 58.7 9% 41.5 52.9 27% KwaDukuza 64.1 80.9 26% 43.8 41.5 -5% Ndwedwe 28.9 48.5 68% 58.6 80.5 37% Source: StatsSA Census 2011 (2012)

Key Findings: Socio-Economic Indicators

 Household services in iLembe are, in general, well below the national average with Maphumulo having almost no services other than electricity;

 64% of the households in iLembe are formal dwellings and the number of formal dwellings has grown by 38%

since 2001.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Employment Indicators

The graph below provides unemployment rates and youth unemployment rates for the district and LMs. The district’s unemployment rate is 31% in general and 37% amongst the youth (15-35). While unemployment is above the national average, it is average for KZN. Youth unemployment is substantially lower than both the national and KZN average (with the exception of Maphumulo and Ndwedwe). Employment and youth unemployment is highest in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe at 49% and 58% respectively.

Graph Employment Status in 2011

Source: StatsSA Census, 2011 (2012)

The table below provides a comparison with 2001. Unemployment and youth unemployment has declined in iLembe by 36% and 33% respectively since 2001.

Table Unemployment 2001 vs 2011 Unemployment Rate Youth (15-34) Unemployment Rate

2001 2011 % change 2001 2011 % change

iLembe 48.0 30.6 -36% 55.8 37.2 -33% Maphumulo 75.9 49.0 -35% 83.3 58.4 -30% Mandeni 45.1 28.6 -37% 51.5 34.6 -33% KwaDukuza 34.3 25.0 -27% 42.6 30.8 -28% Ndwedwe 67.8 48.7 -28% 76.4 58.3 -24% Source: StatsSA Census, 2011 (2012)

The graph below shows the percentage contribution of employment by industry for iLembe and each of the LMs. The majority of employment in iLembe is in the wholesale, retail and trade industry (21%), community services (17%) and manufacturing industry (17%). The majority of employment in Ndwedwe is in agriculture,

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

the majority of employment in Mandeni is in manufacturing, employment in Maphumulo is being sustained by government employment, and employment in KwaDukuza is most diversified across all sectors.

Graph Employment contribution by industry and local municipality, 2011

Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)

The graph below shows the 10 year employment trend for iLembe. Agriculture has gone from the sector that employs the most people, to the sector that employs the 6th most people. Both the manufacturing and agricultural sectors have declined over the previous 5 years by 4 100 and 17 400 jobs respectively. The majority of job gains over the previous 5 years were in the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors and the government and community services sectors.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Graph Employment by Sector for iLembe, 2001-2011

Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)

The graph below displays the breakdown of formal employment into the three skills categories. Between 14% and 16% of the formally employed in all municipalities are highly skilled, with the exception of Maphumulo which has 24% of its employment as highly skilled. This increase is mainly in government services, but also transport and communications. The overall contribution of highly skilled persons in iLembe has increased by 4% over the previous year, however, it is still lower than the average for KZN of 18%. Just over 39% of the formally employed district population are skilled persons, and 45.7% are semi and unskilled.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Graph Formal Employment by Skill Level in 2011

Source: Urban-Econ Estimates based on Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)

The Informal Economy

South Africa’s informal sector is the unofficial part of the economy whereby many people are forced to eke out a meagre economic existence through lack of formal job opportunities. This sector of the economy, which evades income taxes and circumvents labour laws, now represents over 30% of SA’S potential workforce and is the fastest growing sector.

The graph below displays the distribution of formal and informally employed persons. In iLembe, about 23% of the working age population are informally employed, while approximately 77% are formally employed. Within the district, all the local municipalities display a similar trend, however with only 16% informal employment displayed in Maphumulo.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Graph Formal and Informal Employment in 2011

Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset (2012)

The informal economy in iLembe is heterogenic, ranging from average street traders and shebeen owners to child carers and domestic workers. It is often characterised by its flexibility, creativity, resilience to absorb shocks, and its ability to adapt to changing external environments. The largest informal economy exists in KwaDukuza. The following table describes the type of informal activities that occur in KwaDukuza and their estimated size.

Table Types of Informal Activities in KwaDukuza Types of informal Activities Estimated Number

Taxi and Minibus operators 200 Tourism (B&B, Tour guides) 10 Informal Builders 500 Domestic Workers 50 000 Agriculture (urban subsistence) 60 Light industries (tailors, Dressmakers and hatters, Embroiderers and related workers, 2000 plumbers, welders)

Informal technicians (shoe, watch, car, furniture, etc. repairers ) 2000

Street traders Numbers Barbers and Hairdressers 1000 Fruit sellers 2000 Craft and bead sellers 100 Cardboard collectors 40 Live chicken sellers 50

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Millie cookers 50 Newspaper vendors 5 Second hand clothes dealers 20 Tavern and shebeen operators 2000 Spaza shop owners 2000 Street food vendors 1000 Traditional Medicine practitioners and Muthi traders 150 Mr. Phone dealers 50

Source: KwaDukuza Business Development Unit, Urban-Econ Interviews

Key Findings: Employment Indicators  The district’s unemployment rate is 31% in general and 37% amongst the youth (15-35). Employment and youth unemployment is highest in Maphumulo and Ndwedwe at 49% and 58% respectively.;  Unemployment and youth unemployment has declined in iLembe by 36% and 33% respectively since 2001;  The majority of employment in iLembe is in the wholesale, retail and trade industry (21%), community services (17%) and manufacturing industry (17%);  Both the manufacturing and agricultural sectors have declined over the previous 5 years by 4 100 and 17 400 jobs respectively;  The overall contribution of highly skilled persons in iLembe has increased by 4% over the previous year.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Production, Expenditure and Investment

This section covers a variety of economic indicators and provides an understanding of the economic status of iLembe, as well as its leading and lagging industries.

Gross Geographic Product

In 2011 iLembe’s GVA (an indicator of gross geographic produce) was R16 011 billion. This accounts for 3.8% of KZN’s GGP making iLembe the 7th highest contributor to KZN’s GDP out of 11 districts and one metro. iLembe’s GDP grew by 2.9% in 2011, up from 2.7% in 2010, while KZN’s total GDP grew by 3.1%, up from 3% in these same years. The majority of growth is being experienced in the tertiary sector which grew by almost 5% in 2011. The secondary sector grew by 0.6%, while the primary sector contracted by 0.8%.

Graph GVA growth trend by 3 sectors, iLembe, 2001-2011

Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)

The graph below displays the contribution of each industry to total GGP in 2011. For the first year, the most significant sector within the district is ‘finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector’, contributing 18.4% to total GGP. This sector accounts for 19% of the Mandeni economy, 30% of the KwaDukuza economy, and 18% of the Ndwedwe economy, with manufacturing in Maphumulo only contributing 9%. The ‘finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector’ has grown by 5.5% over the previous 5 years, despite the recession.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Manufacturing is the next highest contributor, contributing 18.2% to total GGP in the district. Manufacturing accounts for 23% of Mandeni’s economy, 30% of KwaDukuza’s economy, 23% of Ndwedwe’s economy and 15% of Maphumulo’s economy. Manufacturing grew over the previous year by 0.6%, but has declined over the previous 5 years by 0.4% (due to the recession in 2008).

Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation contributed the third highest to GDP with 16%, general government contributed 14%, transport, storage and communication contributed 12%, and community services contributed 7%. Agriculture, forestry and fishing now only contribute 4.5% to iLembe’s GDP, although it is the most significant sector in Maphumulo.

Graph Goss Geographic Product for 2011, percentage contribution per 9 sectors

Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)

Income and Expenditure

Average annual income per household for iLembe in 2011 was R94 576 (R7 881 per month) which is lower than the previous year. Total household income for 2011 in iLembe was estimated at R12 722 billion, of which

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

93% was used as household expenditure. Of total income, remuneration accounted for 67% and whole unearned income accounted for 33% of total income which suggests that a third of households in the district are surviving on government grants and remittance. Mandeni and KwaDukuza accounted for 77% of total remuneration in the district which again shows the spatial economic dynamics of the district.

The graph below shows the trend in income for iLembe over the previous 10 years. It is evident that current income has increased by 2 billion over the previous 10 years, however, the majority of this increase, especially over the previous 5 years, has been due to increases in unearned income. Unearned income increased by 4.3% over the previous 5 years, and 9.6% from 2010 to 2011, while remuneration only increased by 1.6% and 1.5% in these same years.

Graph Income, remuneration and unearned income trends for iLembe, 2001-2011

Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)

The graph below displays the contribution of expenditure across the four categories of expenditure for each municipality. Durable goods comprised about 7.6% - 9.2% of total expenditure within all of the municipalities, with semi-durable goods comprising between 8% - 12.4% of total expenditure. The most significant categories of expenditure are non-durable goods and services, which account for between 78% - 84% of total expenditure. Non-durable goods expenditure was the highest in Ndwedwe (51% of expenditure), while services contributed 40% to expenditure in Mandeni, 47% in KwaDukuza, and almost 36% in Maphumulo. The proportion of expenditure on durable and semi-durable goods has decreased substantially over the previous year which is expected considering that income has reduced over this same period.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Graph Distribution of Expenditure in 2011

Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)

The graph below provides a detailed breakdown of the sub-categories within each main category as a percentage of total expenditure. Food, beverages and tobacco is the largest expenditure category contributing 26.6% to total expenditure in iLembe, and as high as 32% of total expenditure in Ndwedwe. Transport and communication contributed 8.6% to total expenditure in iLembe, while rental contributed 10.5% in the district and Clothing and footwear contributed 5.4% to total expenditure in the district.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Graph Breakdown of Total Expenditure into Sub-Categories, 2011

Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)

Domestic Fixed Capital Investment

A final indicator of economic activity that is assessed is domestic fixed capital investment by type and sector. R1 702 billion was invested into capital in iLembe in 2011, with 811 billion of that being in KwaDukuza. The graph below shows that investment is mainly being directed into machinery and other equipment which is normal for an economy with a large agricultural and/or manufacturing sector. Investment into this category is decreasing, however, along with the agricultural and manufacturing industries and is being replaced by investment into building and construction works as well as transport equipment.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Graph Domestic Fixed Investment, 2011

Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)

The graph below displays the breakdown of capital investment into the various sectors within iLembe. It is clear that domestic fixed investment in iLembe has been predominately channelled into the manufacturing (29%), transport, storage and communications (16.5%), as well as finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors (15.6%). The most impressive sector over all is the transport, storage and communications sector which, is not only the second highest contributing sector to total investment (16.5%), but is growing at 12.4% on average annually in real terms.

However, within the local municipalities the situation varies according to the comparative advantages of that municipality. 24% of investment within Mandeni was in the finance sector, 41% into manufacturing, while investment into transport and storage contributed just over 12%. Within KwaDukuza 10% of investment was into agriculture, 30.5% into manufacturing, 15% into transport and storage and 15% into finance. Investment in Ndwedwe was more evenly distributed between the sectors, with agriculture (19%), manufacturing (15%), electricity, gas and water (18%), transport and storage (14%) and general government (14%) all contributing substantially. In Maphumulo, investment was dominated by the transport, storage and communication sector (43.6%) and the general government sector (almost 25%).

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Graph Domestic Fixed Capital Investment per Industry in 2011

Source: Quantec’s Standardised Regional Dataset v2011 (2012)

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Key Findings: Production, Expenditure and Investment  iLembe’s GDP grew by 2.9% in 2011, up from 2.7% in 2010, while KZN’s total GDP grew by 3.1%, up from 3% in these same years;  For the first year, the most significant sector within the district is ‘finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector’, contributing 18.4% to total GGP;  Of total income, remuneration accounted for 67% and whole unearned income accounted for 33% of total income which suggests that a third of households in the district are surviving on government grants and remittance;  The most significant categories of expenditure are non-durable goods and services, which account for between 78% - 84% of total expenditure;  Food, beverages and tobacco is the largest expenditure category contributing 26.6% to total expenditure in iLembe, and as high as 32% of total expenditure in Ndwedwe;  R1 702 billion was invested into capital in iLembe in 2011, with 811 billion of that being in KwaDukuza; and  The most impressive sector with regard to domestic fixed investment is the transport, storage and communications sector which, is not only the second highest contributing sector to total investment (16.5%), but is growing at 12.4% on average annually in real terms.

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

ANNEXURE ASSUMPTIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS The tables below display both the nominal and percentage contribution values for each of the indicators presented in the report.

A1.1 Population and Households

Population Households Number Population Number Household Average Female Growth (% Growth (% Household Headed p.a.) p.a.) Size Households % iLembe 606,809 0.80 157,692 2.7% 3.8 45.8 Maphumulo 96,724 -2.21 19,973 -1.0% 4.8 62.1 Mandeni 138,078 0.81 38,235 2.9% 3.6 48.6 KwaDukuza 231,187 3.20 70,284 4.8% 3.3 36.7 Ndwedwe 140,820 -0.27 29,200 1.4% 4.8 52.8

A1.2 Racial Profile

KwaDukuza Maphumulo Percentage Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local iLembe Local Local Contribution Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Black 90.7% 93.6% 76.2% 98.2% 99.9% Coloured 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% Asian 6.7% 4.4% 17.6% 1.0% 0.0% White 2.1% 1.4% 5.3% 0.7% 0.0%

A1.3 HIV and AIDS

KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local Number iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality 564 088 132 331 172 915 143 914 114 929 Population 92 650 25 061 26 890 24 179 16 520 HIV Positive 7 127 1 893 2 027 1 887 1 320 AIDS Deaths

KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality 16.4% 18.9% 15.6% 16.8% 14.4% HIV Positive AIDS Deaths 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1%

A1.4 Gender Profile

iLembe Maphumulo Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Number of males per 100 females 91 81 90 98 89

A1.5 Age Profile

<15 15-64 65+ 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 iLembe 36.6% 34% 58.5% 61% 4.9% 5% Maphumulo 44.1% 41% 49.6% 53% 6.3% 7% Mandeni 35.2% 33% 61.2% 63% 3.6% 4% KwaDukuza 29.9% 29% 65.7% 67% 4.3% 4% Ndwedwe 39.4% 37% 55.0% 57% 5.6% 6%

A1.6 Household Services

Flush Toilet Weekly Refuse Piped Water Inside Electricity for connected to Removal % Dwelling % Lighting % sewerage %

2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 iLembe 21.5 22.5 23.1 34.4 15.2 23.7 50.8 71.4 Maphumulo 2.2 2.2 1.2 1.9 0.6 6.3 17.5 33.7 Mandeni 30.5 26.4 29.8 27.5 21.2 25.8 63.8 82.5 KwaDukuza 34.2 33.7 40.8 60.7 25.4 33.6 73.9 90.2 Ndwedwe 5.5 4.7 2.7 2.3 2.9 9.3 23.9 37.3 SOUTH AFRICA 50.0 57 55.4 62.1 32.5 46.3 70.2 84.7 KWAZULU-NATAL 38.3 40.4 48.5 51.5 29.5 40.0 61.7 77.9

A1.7 Household Dynamics

HOUSEHOLDS DYNAMICS % Housing Average Female Headed Formal owned/paying Households Household Size Households % Dwellings % off 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 iLembe 120390 157692 4.3 3.8 47.1 45.8 46.7 64.4 48.1 56.5 Maphumulo 22149 19973 5.4 4.8 65.4 62.1 22.9 40.8 53.2 80.9 Mandeni 28657 38235 4.1 3.6 49.5 48.6 54.0 58.7 41.5 52.9 KwaDukuza 44117 70284 3.5 3.3 34.6 36.7 64.1 80.9 43.8 41.5 Ndwedwe 25467 29200 5.1 4.8 51.4 52.8 28.9 48.5 58.6 80.5

A1.8 Education Level

EDUCATION (aged 20 +) Higher Primary Educational No Schooling Education Matric Enrolment (aged 6-13)

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011 iLembe 29.8 15.3 3.7 3.1 17.1 26.6 87.9 91.3 Maphumulo 49.0 31.2 2.6 1.7 9.4 21.9 89.3 91.5 Mandeni 19.2 10.1 3.6 2.0 22.3 30.6 89.3 90.9 KwaDukuza 20.6 9.7 5.7 5.1 21.1 28.2 85.2 91.2 Ndwedwe 39.4 22.2 1.7 1.3 12.0 22.1 87.8 91.5

A1.9 Employment and Unemployment

KwaDukuza Maphumulo Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local Number iLembe Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Population - Working age (16 - 348 508 86 405 113 734 87 218 61 151 65 years old) Employed - Formal and 100 455 27 886 47 821 17 001 7 747 informal Unemployed 27 202 9 102 8 029 7 641 2 430 Not economically active 220 851 49 417 57 884 62 576 50 974

A1.10 Employment by type and skill level

Maphumulo Mandeni Local KwaDukuza Local Ndwedwe Local Number iLembe Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Employed - Formal and 100455 27886 47821 17001 7747 informal Employed - Formal 77158 21189 36276 13181 6512 Employed - Formal - Highly 11834 3248 4966 2051 1569 skilled Employed - Formal - Skilled 30088 9481 13538 4500 2569 Employed - Formal - Semi- 35236 8460 17772 6630 2374 and unskilled Employed Informal 23297 6697 11545 3820 1235

KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumul o Mandeni Local iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Percentage Contribution Municipality Municipality Municipality Formally Employed 77% 76% 76% 78% 84% Informally Employed 23% 24% 24% 22% 16%

KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Percentage Contribution Municipality Municipality Municipality Highly Skilled 15% 15% 14% 16% 24% Skilled 39% 45% 37% 34% 39% Semi and Unskilled 46% 40% 49% 50% 36%

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

A1.11 Employment by Industry

Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Number iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Agriculture, forestry and fishing 10 207 1 072 5 155 3 585 395 Mining and quarrying 636 301 237 83 14 Manufacturing 16 542 7 490 7 164 1 581 306 Electricity, gas and water 109 9 40 55 6 Construction 6 355 610 3 788 1 732 226 Wholesale and retail trade, 21 573 7 160 10 891 3 122 399 catering and accommodation Transport, storage and 3 186 797 1 211 470 708 communication Finance, insurance, real estate 13 336 6 349 5 419 1 021 547 and business services Community, social and personal 16 730 2 529 9 378 2 420 2 402 services General government 11 782 1 570 4 538 2 931 2 742 Total 100 455 27 887 47 822 17 001 7 746

Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Agriculture, forestry and fishing 10.2% 3.8% 10.8% 21.1% 5.1% Mining and quarrying 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% Manufacturing 16.5% 26.9% 15.0% 9.3% 4.0% Electricity, gas and water 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Construction 6.3% 2.2% 7.9% 10.2% 2.9% Wholesale and retail trade, 21.5% 25.7% 22.8% 18.4% 5.2% catering and accommodation Transport, storage and 3.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.8% 9.1% communication Finance, insurance, real estate 13.3% 22.8% 11.3% 6.0% 7.1% and business services Community, social and personal 16.7% 9.1% 19.6% 14.2% 31.0% services General government 11.7% 5.6% 9.5% 17.2% 35.4%

A1.12 Gross Geographic Product by Industry

Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Rand Millions iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Agriculture, forestry and fishing 18 752 1 590 196 813 519 Mining and quarrying 8 959 289 122 122 39 Manufacturing 76 246 3 671 1 414 1 804 375 Electricity, gas and water 12 590 199 17 77 93

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Construction 17 651 627 64 360 183 Wholesale and retail trade, 66 749 2 697 864 1 417 368 catering and accommodation Transport, storage and 51 487 1 107 249 459 152 communication Finance, insurance, real estate 77 060 3 090 1 377 1 381 225 and business services Community, social and personal 29 883 998 140 526 139 services General government 60 084 1 745 207 794 385 Total 419 462 16 011 4 650 7 753 2 477

Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Agriculture, forestry and fishing 4.5% 9.9% 4.2% 10.5% 21.0% Mining and quarrying 2.1% 1.8% 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% Manufacturing 18.2% 22.9% 30.4% 23.3% 15.1% Electricity, gas and water 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 3.7% Construction 4.2% 3.9% 1.4% 4.6% 7.4% Wholesale and retail trade, 15.9% 16.8% 18.6% 18.3% 14.9% catering and accommodation Transport, storage and 12.3% 6.9% 5.4% 5.9% 6.1% communication Finance, insurance, real estate 18.4% 19.3% 29.6% 17.8% 9.1% and business services Community, social and personal 7.1% 6.2% 3.0% 6.8% 5.6% services General government 14.3% 10.9% 4.4% 10.2% 15.5%

A1.13 Expenditure by Category

KwaDukuza Maphumulo Rand Millions (2nd Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local iLembe Local Local quarter) Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Durable Goods 937 294 384 150 109 Semi-Durable 1 088 384 404 152 147 Goods Non-Durable 4 948 1 646 1 905 882 515 Goods Services 4 878 1 544 2 370 545 419 11 851 3 869 5 064 1 729 1 189 Total

KwaDukuza Maphumulo Percentage Mandeni Local Ndwedwe Local iLembe Local Local Contribution Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Durable Goods 7.9% 7.6% 7.6% 8.7% 9.2% Semi-Durable 9.2% 9.9% 8.0% 8.8% 12.4% Goods Non-Durable 41.8% 42.6% 37.6% 51.0% 43.3%

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Goods Services 41.2% 39.9% 46.8% 31.5% 35.2%

A1.14 Expenditure by sub-category

Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Rand Millions (2nd quarter) iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Furniture, household 183 61 68 30 24 appliances, etc Personal transport 533 162 207 99 65 Durable equipment Goods Recreational and 132 42 70 10 11 entertainment goods Other durable goods 88 29 39 12 9 Clothing and footwear 642 239 220 87 96 Household textiles, 166 57 59 27 23 furnishings, glassware, etc Semi- Motor car tyres, parts and 165 52 64 29 19 Durable accessories Recreational and 75 22 40 8 6 entertainment goods Miscellaneous goods 40 14 22 2 3 Food, beverages and 3 149 1 046 1 232 559 313 tobacco Household fuel and power 542 210 153 108 71 Household consumer goods 488 174 194 68 52 Non- Durable Medical and pharmaceutical 171 43 92 22 14 products Petroleum products 485 142 175 111 57 Recreational and 113 32 59 13 8 entertainment goods Rent 1 250 371 688 126 66 Household services, 303 100 133 42 27 including domestic servants Medical services 767 252 367 79 70 Services Transport and 1 018 325 503 99 91 communication services Recreational, entertainment and 551 190 231 67 63 educational services Miscellaneous services 990 307 449 132 102

Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Furniture, household 1.54% 1.57% 1.34% 1.74% 2.05% appliances, etc Durable Personal transport 4.50% 4.19% 4.10% 5.72% 5.48% Goods equipment Recreational and 1.11% 1.09% 1.38% 0.56% 0.88%

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Rand Millions (2nd quarter) iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality entertainment goods 0.74% 0.74% 0.76% 0.68% 0.75% Other durable goods 5.42% 6.17% 4.34% 5.03% 8.11% Clothing and footwear Household textiles, 1.40% 1.47% 1.16% 1.55% 1.97% furnishings, glassware, etc Semi- Motor car tyres, parts and Durable accessories 1.39% 1.36% 1.27% 1.66% 1.61% Recreational and 0.64% 0.58% 0.78% 0.44% 0.49% entertainment goods Miscellaneous goods 0.34% 0.36% 0.43% 0.11% 0.22% Food, beverages and 26.57% 27.03% 24.33% 32.33% 26.28% tobacco Household fuel and power 4.57% 5.42% 3.03% 6.24% 5.99% 4.12% 4.50% 3.83% 3.93% 4.40% Non- Household consumer goods Medical and pharmaceutical Durable 1.45% 1.11% 1.83% 1.29% 1.14% products 4.09% 3.67% 3.45% 6.43% 4.78% Petroleum products Recreational and 0.95% 0.83% 1.17% 0.78% 0.67% entertainment goods Rent 10.55% 9.59% 13.58% 7.27% 5.55% Household services, 2.55% 2.58% 2.63% 2.45% 2.29% including domestic servants Medical services 6.47% 6.51% 7.24% 4.54% 5.85% Transport and Services 8.59% 8.40% 9.94% 5.72% 7.63% communication services Recreational, entertainment and educational services 4.65% 4.91% 4.55% 3.85% 5.33% 8.35% 7.93% 8.87% 7.66% 8.54% Miscellaneous services

A1.15 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Investment Type

KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local Rand Millions iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Total 3 006 884 1 389 479 253 Buildings and construction works 1 168 277 522 238 130 Machinery and other equipment 1 451 490 699 187 75 Transport equipment 345 91 156 51 47 Transfer costs 42 26 12 3 1

KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Mandeni Local Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Buildings and 38.8% 31.4% 37.6% 49.7% 51.3% construction works

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Machinery and other 48.3% 55.4% 50.3% 39.0% 29.6% equipment Transport equipment 11.5% 10.3% 11.2% 10.6% 18.7% Transfer costs 1.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5%

A1.16 Domestic Fixed Capital Investment by Industry

Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Rand Millions iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Agriculture, forestry and fishing 284 35 145 93 11 Mining and quarrying 63 27 26 8 1 Manufacturing 872 362 424 71 16 Electricity, gas and water 179 15 68 86 11 Construction 49 5 28 14 2 Wholesale and retail trade, 231 73 123 31 4 catering and accommodation Transport, storage and 494 111 205 68 111 communication Finance, insurance, real estate 470 213 208 34 16 and business services Community, social and personal 62 7 26 8 21 services General government 300 36 137 66 62 Total 3 005.8 884.0 1 389.4 478.9 253.5

Mandeni KwaDukuza Ndwedwe Maphumulo Percentage Contribution iLembe Local Local Local Local Municipality Municipality Municipality Municipality Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.4% 4.0% 10.4% 19.4% 4.4% Mining and quarrying 2.1% 3.1% 1.9% 1.7% 0.5% Manufacturing 29.0% 40.9% 30.5% 14.8% 6.2% Electricity, gas and water 6.0% 1.7% 4.9% 17.9% 4.3% Construction 1.6% 0.6% 2.0% 3.0% 0.6% Wholesale and retail trade, 7.7% 8.3% 8.8% 6.6% 1.6% catering and accommodation Transport, storage and 16.5% 12.6% 14.7% 14.2% 43.6% communication Finance, insurance, real estate 15.6% 24.1% 15.0% 7.1% 6.2% and business services Community, social and personal 2.1% 0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 8.2% services General government 10.0% 4.0% 9.8% 13.8% 24.4%

A1.17 Building Plans KwaDukuza

Approvals Submissions Completions

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Total Area Total est. Total Area Total est. Total Area Total est. no of (m2) value no of (m2) value no of (m2) value plans plans plans January 2010 90 12078 93842500 55 13635 2207795000 46 19495 129497900 February 2010 96 46786 321615230 70 4385 22670000 25 19352 128306875 March 2010 89 16707 116731000 95 18866 115951500 16 4789 26816500 April 2010 112 18266 124816500 84 9813 118196500 29 16291 108908500 May 2010 89 15242 114903500 128 123474 183075000 40 510775 60990200 June 2010 86 12693 104840000 113 14821 102759000 40 14894 61089900 July 2010 117 16673 125744050 114 19639 133149600 21 11944 93582500 August 2010 87 18745 146161800 95 35703 222819239 28 12674 78991500 September 161 31303 251041000 101 33291 268594000 21 6970 35691900 2010 October 2010 74 6686 56310700 65 11256 21696590 28 5064 40151500 November 67 13126 93724300 130 18992 109294200 20 5005 33298300 2010 December 48 3984 29435700 57 12631 96012600 46 14209 87521400 2010 January 2011 98 34696 226678500 57 7158 57607700 20 6012 36864000 February 2011 59 10,730 20,321,627 48 12,274 88,310,500 29 10,132 53,595,200 March 2011 83 10,115 80,806,900 79 21,325 201,871,400 37 11,855 70,215,327 April 2011 70 11,278 92,231,400 59 10,654 85,104,700 37 10,895 72,623,600 May 2011 53 7,972 70,088,600 58 19,881 149,547,200 24 8,267 56,281,000 June 2011 50 48,530 347,642,100 106 36,649 292,644,800 26 41,263 293,105,300 August 2011 100 4 752 216 431 300 55 19 125 152 784 600 27 8 068 58 919 800 76 20 557 127 061 800 74 13 627 115 416 700 30 8 537 57 643 000 October 2011 November 47 13 149 121 166 400 88 26 829 267 061 800 28 11 975 81 425 564 2011 December 33 24 222 173 981 000 65 10 306 81 800 200 27 12 627 77 714 200 2011 January 2012 67 12228 93557700 39 6317 45497100 10 3598 27113200

February 2012 52 8463 72289600 66 12513 93405400 39 13688 105407100

March 2012 93 16188 127968700 76 20805 142623677 25 12368 98389100 April 2012 94 6 661 52 460 700 53 34 727 187 200 800 15 5 157 19 641 200

May 2012 51 18 493 172 877 800 74 14 002 100 441 954 25 7 730 64 637 103

June 2012 85 41 115 270 773 246 103 21 094 183 931 000 28 10 482 29 374 900

July 2012 65 8 076 72 290 100 78 18817 176619500 39 10 824 68655900

August 2012 87 16 719 148 140 470 76 13909 101 520 770 44 15901 119890900 September 71 29 735 246 052 500 83 24452 120734700 25 5598 37955700 2012

A1.18 New Service Connections KwaDukuza

Single Three Phase Maximum Total Electricity Total Water Phase Demand Connections Connections

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

Single Three Phase Maximum Total Electricity Total Water Phase Demand Connections Connections

Jan-March (Q1) 2010 56 21 3 80 160 April-June (Q2) 2010 86 30 4 120 340 July-Sept (Q3) 2010 72 19 2 93 144 Oct-Dec (Q4) 2010 223 16 1 240 142 Jan-March (Q1) 2011 519 10 1 530 207 April-June (Q2) 2011 605 14 2 621 180 July 2011 277 5 1 283

August 2011 33 10 0 43

September 2011 17 11 1 29 81 October 2011 29 2 0 31 17 November 2011 11 10 1 22 44 December 2011 11 2 2 15 26 January 2012 8 2 0 10 48 February 2012 222 1 0 223 33 March 2012 495 5 0 500 46 April 2012 39 2 0 41 35 May 2012 14 5 0 19 30 June 2012 232 8 0 240 48 July 2012 26 6 0 32 August 2012 11 4 1 16 September 2012 8 7 0 15 234

A1.19 Airport Passenger Movements

King Shaka OR Tambo Cape Town International International International Jan-11 397,781 1,507,654 689,035 Feb-11 376,166 1,373,190 687,458 Mar-11 423,680 1,665,879 773,929 Apr-11 422,985 1,590,663 708,336 May-11 405,906 1,516,484 615,991 403 318 1 449 627 74 353 Jun-11 449 259 1 651 390 675 602 Jul-11 415 435 1 614 289 651 619 Aug-11 419 924 1 633 639 690 890 Sep-11

Oct-11 436 447 1 719 212 754 177 Nov-11 420 581 1 570 063 757 303 Dec-11 466 749 1 702 244 813 866 Jan-12 389 108 1 514 082 743 912 Feb-12 388 380 1 436 322 738 675 Mar-12 422 002 1 605 986 808 104

iLembe District Municipality – Quarterly Economic Indicators and Intelligence Report: 3rd Quarter 2012

407 655 1 579 605 742 647 Apr-12 May-12 386 178 1 460 882 634 812 384,959 1,457,861 609,793 Jun-12 Jul-12 403,758 1,623,505 662,114 383,966 1,599,960 657,631 Aug-12 Sep-12 390,988 1,623,505 680,027

A1.20 Port Movements

Richards Bay Durban

Total Cargo Total Gross Tonnage Total Cargo Gross Tonnage Total Number Handled (metric Number of of Vessels Handled (metric of Vessels of Vessels tonnes, millions) Vessels (millions) tonnes, millions) (millions)

Jan-11 6,377 136 4,878 6,377 348 10,504 Feb-11 7,321 172 5,611 7,321 368 11,274 Mar-11 7,031, 146 5,219 5,772 341 10,044 Apr-11 6,817, 162 5,108 5,868 359 10,559 May-11 6,020 127 4,140 6,510 375 10,981 Jun-11 5,773 157 5,216 7,538 374 11,039 Jul-11 6,680 140 4,639 6,830 350 10,140 Aug-11 8,743 164 6,513 7,525 360 10,692 Sep-11 6,513 147 5,214 6,875 382 10,620 Oct-11 8 977 157 6 288 7 734 323 9 229 Nov-11 8 210 146 5 775 7 253 355 10 775 Dec-11 8 306 146 6 011 5 812 338 9 762 Jan 2012 8 418 141 5 641 4 988 315 10 254 Feb 2012 7 874 158 6 383 5 191 327 10 487 March 2012 6 931 137 5 033 5 981 299 9 155 April 2012 7.589 148 5.580 6.576 310 9.396 May 2012 7.580 136 5.111 7.741 342 9.998 June 2012 6.265 124 5.003 7.811 369 11.372 5.409 298 9.122 July 2012 7.496 114 4.876 7.568 325 9.962 August 2012 7.884 125 5.154 7.072 330 5.410 September 2012 7.6 131 9.874

REPORT COMPILED FOR:

Enterprise iLembe Cnr Link Road and Ballito Drive Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal Tel: 032 – 946 1256 Fax: 032 – 946 3515

REPORT COMPILED BY:

Urban-Econ Development Economists 37 Hunt Road, Glenwood Durban, 4001 Tel: 031 – 202 9673 Fax: 031 – 202 9675 Email: [email protected]