www.policy-network.net e: [email protected] +44(0)2073402211 f: t: +44(0)2073402200 United Kingdom London SW1P3QB Street11 Tufton Second floor Policy Network policy network paper Don't ForgetDon't The Middle majority How Labourcanbuildanewcentre-left June 2017 Patrick Cadywould DiamondandCharlie
2 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle The-Broad-Church The Broad Church, whichcanbefound here: http://www.policy-network.net/publications/6228/ ProgressiveNext Project for Accompanying thelaunch: Britain. marking thisisanotherreport ofthelaunchPolicy workstream: Network publishedaspart This isoneoftwo reports The author ofthefamousstudiesLabour’s Discomfort’,‘Southern hasbeenaninspiration. Newlove andAlex Porter, have alsoprovided invaluable assistance. Lord GilesRadice, original for theircomments Josh andfeedback drafts. onearly Colleagues particularly at Policy Network, addition to this,In our thanks go to Professor Andrew Gamble, Liddle Laza and Roger Matthew ClaudiaChwalisz andAndrewwritten, inparticular Cooper for theirever-incisive contributions. We would alsoliketo thankPopulus hasbeen for thepollinguponwhichreport conducting thisstudy. for to undertake providing thefinancialsupport StetterErnst andAnia Skrzypek, We would liketo thanktheFoundation ofEuropean Progressive Studies (FEPS),inparticular Acknowledgements from University College London. BA insocialandpoliticalsciences from inpublicpolicy theUniversity ofCambridge andanMSc economic policy, aswell asvarious analyses ofpublicopinionandvoting behaviour. Heholdsa Prior to joining, hewas aresearcher at onsocialand Demos, numerous authoring reports CadywouldCharlie isaresearcher leadingitswork atonthefuture Policy oftheleft. Network, ofPoliticsthe Department at theUniversity ofOxford. University ofLondon, GwilymGibbonfellow at Nuffield College, Oxford, andavisitingin fellow in Public He is lecturer Patrick of Policy Policy Network. at Mary, Queen Diamond is co-chair About theAuthors Marso /Shutterstock.com Marso Cover Photo Credit: www.policy-network.net
policy network paper paper 1. Executive summary
This paper argues that Labour can win the next general election whenever it comes. However, to secure a decisive parliamentary majority that will sustain a Labour government in office for at least two terms, the Labour party will have to significantly expand its electoral support. Our analysis,
based on an exclusive public opinion survey by Populus, indicates there are two political and policy network electoral strategies available to Labour. The first strategy is termed the ‘Bernie Sanders’ approach of continuing to expand Labour’s vote among the professional middle-class; economically precarious younger voters; and the poorest groups on the very lowest incomes. These voters comprised the core of the 2017 Corbyn coalition.
The alternative approach we have labelled the ‘Clem Attlee’ strategy: this approach entails building support for Labour in all social grades and classes, and across the nation. The Attlee strategy means the party has to gain support among the lower and middle income voters who tend to populate ‘Communitarian Britain’, and who are less convinced about Labour’s programme and policy agenda. This voter group is defined by their struggle to ‘make ends meet’: they live on low to middle incomes and make just enough to get by through careful management of their household budget. The 64 parliamentary seats that Labour has to win next time to secure an outright majority are disproportionately populated by these voters, in the C2 social grades, who tend to earn approximately £21,000-34,000 a year. The aim should be not just to sneak past the winning post with ‘one more heave’, but to achieve a significant mandate through which Labour can transform the country for the benefit of the many not the few.
The voters Labour needs to win
Almost two-thirds of the 64 marginal seats Labour has to win at the next election have more C2 social grade voters than AB voters. This contrasts with Britain as a whole: just 55% of seats across the country fit this profile. Our poll suggests that those on middle incomes are currently most sceptical about and have a less favourable view of the Labour party.
Labour actually won few converts in 2017 among those who voted Conservative in 2015.
Labour’s ‘core vote’ is increasingly concentrated among the highest and very lowest earners in Britain. Being a middle income earner (£21,000-£34,000) decreases the probability of voting Labour by 9 points compared to someone earning less than £14,000 per annum.
The 2017 election result
The voter groups at the 2017 general election who had a decisive impact on the result were not so much the very young or the very old, but 25-44 year olds, particularly university graduates, who switched in large numbers to Labour. The party’s success was in winning over these working-age voters.
Educational achievement as well as age matters in voting. For example, the Conservative party led among voters aged over 35 where voters had not attended university. In general, the more highly educated voters are, the more likely it is they will support the Labour party. We estimate that having a university degree increases the probability of voting Labour by 9 percentage points.1
1.See our regression analysis model in the technical appendix
3 | Don't Forget The Middle | How Labour can build a new centre-left majority | June 2017 www.policy-network.net Labour to make gains among former UKIP voters. voters. UKIP to make former gains among Labour may perception This sector. have well financial the elite or enabled to as political close the viewed longer is no party the sector; public the and unions to trade the closest toVoters be Labour perceive party. decisive as a‘strong’ or Labour view not do voters still but services; public improving and concerns communities, in their everyday with crisis, dealing cost living of the addressing on is strongest party Voters that Labour believe the vulnerabilities. biggest are its Brexit on a to‘good negotiate is deal’ unable that Labour view the and incompetence economic of issues remain: perception the policy on weaknesses Labour’s party. the likely to more support class makes voters 9points as working longer. self-identifying said That any class supporters’ working ‘traditional to is close its thatMany Labour believe not voters do in 2017.Labour likely were to less support voters who income middle lower and the ‘fairness’, of particularly party the ‘equality’. of to be voters want Labour More party the is principally Voters that believe Labour Labour’s image in minds the of voters has process even begun. Brexit the awave of before pessimism is grip in the economic Britain of as awhole. country the or personally them for better, either are getting standards that living believe not do in Britain people Most in London. that voters live fact than the rather variables social and demographic of consequence is the London dominance in electoral Labour’s on patterns. voting effect’ ‘London discernible no was There England. of gains South in the party’s the driving 8th, June on towards broke heavily Labour remainers’ 'Hard at losing. risk of is most that incomes Labour middle on meet ends that is It are those making categories. grade social across and income;current income this applies by their to on likely to get voters are more much say that are they struggling Labour this, Alongside 4 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper of the report are based on extensive opinion research conducted with the polling organisation, organisation, polling the with research conducted opinion extensive on are based report the of findings time. The to to next do win needs Labour what is to examine this of initial report purpose The ageneration. for in power Labour keeps which majority ‘one heave’, more to achieve but 10 governing the to create asustainable required cent swing per with post winning the to past not sneak be aim should 4.9 cent. of The per aswing requires Labour election. at next the majority to aparliamentary cent win swing per a0.3 need Conservatives the Britain. of government next the be to right the earn to has Labour laurels; its on rest to party the for time no is This years. eighty for capitalism western in crisis worst the after arow in elections general three lost now has party Labour The in 2017 seats parliamentary fewer in 1992. Kinnock Neil under thandid it gained at 43 cent. Labour per election the called minister prime the when polls in the been had it where roughly upending held vote actually abysmal the Tory Conservative the Despite campaign, Democrats. Liberal the and Greens the by squeezing werepredominantly achieved victories party’s Labour former the voters: gainsnet among significant no made Tory Labour 1983 election. general vote share the of since highest the their secured and seats, Yet most the won still Conservatives the Tory the of party. history in the leaders worst the among foxhunting. of May is return demonstrably the supporting by brand their ‘retoxified’ Conservatives The Brexit. of catastrophe economic the on to embark set were to and way make into its that pay packets, failed people’s growth over anaemic of seven years Tories The airwaves. the presided had from absent chancellor, the and virtually was Philip Hammond, narrative economic no clear had campaign elderly. The well-off relatively the core particularly voters, their on involved manifesto anattack Conservative history. The political Tory in modern campaign in 2017. votes of seats or amajority win not did party ineffectual most the confronting was Labour hill to Labour climb. has asteep The now, ayear months or from in three outright, party the election to another But win politics. in British power contender for as aviable has now re-emerged Labour towards socialism. decisively shifts nation the of mood the where ‘1945 another to experience is about moment’ party that Labour the left British the on belief growing is a justice. There social and fairness given way voters with to concernapparently among anew have narrow isolationism and inequality austerity: of seven years conversation national after the to reshape able finally was party The to contrast Conservatives. the in stark costed and clear was manifesto minster, prime party’s robotic many, inspiring while Labour The young. the especially authority, in to calm contrast acold and to exude managed Corbyn well executed: was campaign Wales of Labour’s Scotland. and as Celtic well England as heartlands the towns Southern of leafy since 1997. in the gains of across country; the anumber delivered that election the merely not was It Labour for support electoral in rise biggest with the expectations outperformed significantly Corbyn power.of brink on the stands Jeremy Labour generation in a time first the for aconsequence, As granted. for taken be can survival Government’s Conservative the May nor Theresa Neither now take. should process that Brexit the form and shape the about Conservatives senior among even agreement (DUP) is little might There collapse at any moment. Party Unionist Democratic Irish Northern with the tentative the arrangement ‘confidence sustainable; is barely and supply’ majority a parliamentary May’s without Government has evaporated. deal Brexit a‘tough’ mandate to secure a with majority parliamentary a greatly enhanced to obtain were expected Conservatives the which in Anelection life. national in UK 2017 earthquake The apolitical has delivered election general Introduction 2. 5 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle According Curtice, to John Professor www.policy-network.net
policy network paper return to imminently. government return it if is to election next fight the should Labour which on strategy and agenda the conclusions about draws time. Finally, brief to over win is it next report to if the triumph needs that Labour seats key the voter considers marginal and groups report the Then, eyes in the voters. of weaknesses and relative strengths its in particular, to ascertain party Labour the parties, political the of perceptions to dominant We attention our Britain. turn of landscape political new the We by analysing begin power.back pathto a find and coalition asuccessful election-winning to assemble able be Labour will to electorate the carefully listening Yet voters. by particular of only opinions the slavishly following groups, by focus replaced be should We issues. that policy-making believe key not on do political views and perceptions electorate’s the us aricher, to develop help can data account nuanced more polling of of use rigorous Nonetheless, Populus. 6 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle 2 We recognise the methodological limitations of polling as revealed in recent elections. in recent as elections. revealed polling of limitations We methodological the recognise sample down-weighted the2015Labour resultgeneral and election results were weighted by 2017 for detailedanalysis. The overall to ensure arobust samplesize of 2015and2017Labourvoters June 2017,includingboosters in Great between 2-5 Britain 2511peopleonline surveyed 2. Methodological note: Populus www.policy-network.net
policy network paper between younger, more liberal, pro-European, and better educated voters who are more likely to are more voters who educated better and younger, pro-European, liberal, more between that is underway, atransition doubt however. polarised is little increasingly be can politics British Wales England, There Scotland. and Northern of heartlands urban and industrial former in the lies still advantage electoral Labour’s England. concentrated in Southern remains overwhelmingly support Conservative politics. as in Britain’s well asInevitably, change is continuity there electoral history. its in time first the for MP aConservative elected towards heavily Leave leaned year’s which town mining in last in Derbyshire EUformer referendum, a Mansfield, advance. Labour’s of symbols voters were the liberal by younger, middle-class, more populated Hove, and Brighton South: the gains overwhelmingly and cities in the made but Midlands the and England by Tories the in Northern constituencies of squeezed in anumber itself found and seats of a handful lost Labour redrawn. is being Britain of map electoral the a consequence, As parents. than their off materially worse be in will, all likelihood, generation that next the concerned Labour, doubt no towards 24 of ages the 45 and shifted also voters between Younger middle-aged and prospects. economic future that their are damaging policies haveclass backgrounds, austerity against revolted ‘dementia tax’. middle- Younger from so-called well educated are relatively even who voters, those introduce a and lock’ ‘triple pension to Tories, the to the end manifesto in the proposals despite loyal broadly remained programme austerity Conservatives’ the from protected have been largely voters who older and Pensioners precariousness. and inequality of are creating patterns which new austerity, of aftershocks ongoing is the politics British of landscape the changing third dynamic The across UK. the are emerging identities political and is It that clear social new politics. identity of choice, form a new now a lifestyle is party that argue voting a political who for analysts are some There communities. towns rural and live in who those and areas, urban large populate who those is cleavage between agrowing there than willing ever were to more vote range income low Conservative. toin the middle Conversely, grades. social workers highest the among support more is securing Labour But politics. in British matters that class voting class and case longer is isthe no changing: also it not between relationship The at this election. factor critical were the year olds 25-44 gains among that Labour’s Labour. to However, flock be remembered ought electors young it to while Conservatives, the likely more to support voters significantly older with politics in UK line dividing new the become that ‘age’ said has has It been politics. coalitions in British and that is creating alignments new change demographic and is social landscape political in the transformation of dynamic second The England. gains in Southern quite unexpected secure and London, through to sweep party Labour the enabled This tactically. to vote Labour were prepared Brexit a ‘softer’ wanted voters who ‘pro-remain’ class ardently and middle- Wales, and England In predominantly to win. placed were they best where candidates Democrat Liberal or Labour to Conservative, 2017 support switched voters tactically as ‘pro-union’ in Scotland in seats (SNP)to ‘leave’ ‘remain’ or twenty lost Party EU. in the National Scottish The voters want union; Wales, the and in England whether ‘against’ or voters are ‘for’ whether Scotland, in politics: (EU). Union European the into lines electoral British dividing new has introduced This Scottish independence, and the 2016 referendum on whether the UK should remain a of member the 2014two referendums: major of on aftershock referendum structural is the dynamic first The dynamics. by political several propelled isunderway. process being This is realignment structural of process along-term and is changing, politics UK of landscape The 3. The new of British politics landscape 7 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle 3 Moreover, per cent per cent; C221percent; DE21 as follows: AB27percent; C127 across population theBritish is ofsocialgrades the proportion classification-data/social-grade), co.uk/nrs-print/lifestyle-and- to theNRS(http://www.nrs. According grade-a-b-c1-c2-d-e). ukgeographics.co.uk/blog/social- occupations’ (Source: http://www. unemployed andlowest grade manual occupations, DE: andunskilled ‘Semi-skilled manualoccupations’,‘Skilled professional occupations’; C2: managerial, administrative, &junior clerical ‘Supervisory, professional occupations’; C1: managerial, administrative, AB: &intermediate‘Higher defined inthe following way: grades3. Social are commonly www.policy-network.net
policy network paper matter of electoral calculation. Labour was created at the beginning of the 20th century to be the the to be century 20th the of createdat beginning was the Labour calculation. electoral of matter a ispurely not Attlee, or Sanders to adopt, Moreover, strategy which of Labour, for question the Commons. of House in the to seats win capacity party’s the and support electoral its of depth as the breadth the as on much success depends aparty’s system, electoral post poor. the andfirst-past-the- theyoung Ina educated, highly the affluent, relatively votes the among by up piling merely election general at next the progress make will further unlikely that Labour time, is it At voters. same the working-class conservative socially more among support strong 1945, of 1997, and alliance victories in the 1964-66, electoral abroad secured assembled party the Yet values. Labour conservative and where authoritarian to socially sympathetic most are the and time: many voters are in favour EU, the these leaving of of next Labour for a challenge evidently is self- 1945 approach famous eve Attlee the on its of did The victory. party as the Britain, of parts all classes and throughout Labour for aim is the to support ‘Attlee’ the build strategy; labelled be in 2017. to Conservatives the defected whom of some in marginalgroups seats, can approach This social lower income and into middle the support Labour’s is to extend alternative strategy The Labour. for pay-off is electoral likely to have along-term strategy’ Sanders ‘Bernie over the time: case, in which well educated and diverse ethnically urban, liberal, more becoming is that Britain claimed we has it have been As lives. seen, precarious economically leading people by austerity, as well as younger as were they appalled Ukip from defected whom of some incomes, lowest very the voters on to leave by decision the EU, the angered working-class Britain but liberal only not includes 8June on galvanised alliance Labour electoral strategy’. unique The Sanders June ‘Corbyn of 2017.the Coalition’ takeis forward to first The ‘Bernie the be labelled This might fruitful. potentially appear strategies Two political and support. electoral political of base to grow its astrategy needs it election, general at next the advances is to make further Labour If forWhat Labour? next Toriesthe is likely proveas a to are finished consequence mistaken. to claim but that educated; better and tolerant, more diverse, more is UK becoming The appeal. and 1920s in the electorate 1930s, and message have political their altered constantly Conservatives the of working-class the growth the and suffrage to Since change. universal pragmatically themselves to adapt capacity Tories the have diverse: and a remarkable shown liberal century last more the for becoming is Britain because merely party the to off agreatConservative mistake write be also would It culture war.existential an of grip in the not certainly is most Britain than we might think. together are closer politics British of ‘tribes’ two the issues, and policies about key On questions disappeared. policy economic on right and left ‘open’ between line is either ‘closed’; world or the dividing traditional has the neither think who people of is comprised not ‘cosmopolitan’ electorate ‘communitarian’ and The Britain. between division as realignment a straightforward this political to is simplistic It depict too elections. in UK underway to be appears realignment Clinton. Asimilar structural of process voters weaker. much was income in Trump’s prevalent even was more trend over This Hilary victory middle whitelower and among Obama’s communities. black support poorer voters with educated 2012 and in 2008 presidency college income high by a‘post-industrial uniting coalition’ upscale, of 2017 the won Obama States: United in the example, for has to similarities recent elections election socially, and ‘cosmopolitan’ the ‘communitarian’ and Demographically Britain. between divide claim in agrowing the of other. truth the likely on to in towns is reside villages some most and There are voters who pro-Leave older, conservative, Alongside socially hand. more one live the inon cities 8 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper worker’s party fighting for those families in Britain struggling each year meet. maketo struggling ends Britain families in those for fighting worker’s party the remain should party Labour The election. general at is next it to the if outright win strategy nation-building political an Attlee-inspired pursue should that Labour We in this argue report governing party. acredible to resolve be and strength the as right place, lacking in the but ‘compassionate’. ‘strong’ and both heart by many voters too as having its these of seen is still Labour as have they perceived to be tended politics, in British majority parliamentary aviable have secured parties political Where by were matched obligations. rights as possible, as far where responsibility social and in mutuality believed They state. of the independent fiercely clubs often that were more men’s working and facilities, cultural and sports societies, friendly co-operatives, schools, churches, unions, trade institutions, class social own createdtheir proletarian new The programmes. or values to socialist sympathetic communities that were never overtly in working-class roots strong had always party Labour the Pugh has demonstrated, Martin ashistorian the working-people; of party 9 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper per cent); May’s party is seen as representing wealth, power and privilege in Crucially, today’s Britain. privilege and wealth, power as representing is seen cent);per May’s party ‘upper-middle the class’ for (24 stand cent) ‘upper per the Conservatives class’ the and (38believe that public too the is It striking voters. Tories the May’s to bring campaign to working-class closer Theresa of failure strategic the of anindicator Conservatives, the for cent same say the 2per Just working-class. the for now stands that Labour perceived survey in our cent respondents 56 of per as a‘moderate’ party. described be best can (23 cent) as incompetent per weak (13 and Labour cent). Labour cent per believe C2s of 4per Just likely to to Tories and the see perceive were most strong, and respondents C2 authoritarian to be ‘patriotic’. was cent that party The thought the 4per only and as competent described be could best (15‘competent’ cent), per ‘strong’ (12 and Labour cent). believed cent per public the of 7 per Only (13 as ‘authoritarian’ (20 cent). are seen cent), per per Conservatives ‘forward-looking’ the contrast, In (18 as ‘incompetent’ viewed likely to be most was cent), (16 per ‘weak’ cent), per positively, more and today’, Labour party Labour the and party Conservative the describe terms ‘best asked which When Labour. for damaging politically be could liberties on civil stance a clear by sacrificing attitudes social authoritarian more voters with to cent in appealing disagree). per far too cent Going AB agree/7 (44 per grade in social those (51 cent disagree); per cent category 25 to age in the agree/3 and 34 per respondents younger for important is particularly cent disagree). cent (40 per freedom on emphasis agree/8 per agenda The policy and political in its emphasise should that Labour as aprinciple scores highly also ‘Freedom’ overwhelming. is hardly Conservatives over the advantage its but fairness, of asparty the perceived likely to is more be party Labour The (41 (43 cent Labour Democrats centper cent distrust), per 20 Liberal and the per cent distrust). per yourself’, 31 well for cent do (46 and make distrust), per aliving, 36 cent Conservatives the chose per place to hard, work afair make ‘to Britain trusted most they party which we asked all respondents voter When British is than commanding. less population). position this group, Labour’s Among by 51 favour ‘fairness’ on anemphasis centgrade to (C2s 6per 21 comprise cent total the of per has yet to social convince. C2 in the Labour groups Those social the among is strongest feeling This disagree). (37‘equality’ cent agree/12 per cent disagree) ‘internationalism’ per or (19 cent agree/18 per cent per (45 cent disagree) than cent is to per ‘fairness’ rather emphasise agree/8 per like most Labour would public the that value the is It striking agenda. its of ‘internationalism’ put at heart the party the if likely to more vote be would Labour cent). public the of per reality, In members few relatively are ‘environmentalism’ to Labour (43 important cent) thinkthey least per ‘internationalism’ and (42 (63 (59 cent),‘equality’ per by ‘fairness’ cent) followed (56 per cent). ‘community’ and per values The is to Labour is important believe groups across all social that public the principle political The couples. married older and were pensioners to Labour disposed favourably least The degrees. higher with those cent), and (44 per dwellers students, current were urban Labour of view favourable most the with groups Those cent advantage. adecisive unfavourable). had per however, truth, In party neither cent cent cent (34 favourable/40per unfavourable) favourable/40 per per Conservatives than the (37 party Labour the of view favourable amore had public the campaign, election the of end the By party Labour the of Perceptions parties political the Views of 4. 10 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper Base: all respondents (2511) all respondents Base: class supporters? working traditional away its from further or has closer moved party you think Labour do the Figure 2: to extent what closer, moved had away. 47 and cent further per cent party the group: thought 22 per social C2 the among marked away. 39 and cent particularly was closer further per perception This moved had supporters’, 27 only cent party the thought per working-class traditional away its from has ‘moved further or that closer Labour However, believed they whether we public asked the when (2511) all respondents Base: for? stand Figure 1: Conservatives the and you think do Labour who (13 ‘all for or classes in society’ cent both). for per class (10 middle the for to stand is perceived cent Labour), 8per cent Conservative; per party neither 11 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper ‘negative families’, their for 21 and community’. cent ‘negative per local the for ‘negative UK’, the for been had community’. 24 that globalisation cent Only believed per 18 cent per UK’, ‘good the for has been cent 28 families’, ‘good their per for cent local ‘good 22 the per and for vote the to in driving leave EU. the factor that 39 globalisation cent this In voters poll, of believed per astrong was identity national and jobs on impact thatindicate antipathy its and to globalisation to appeared EU year’s on membership referendum Last neutral. more is generally attitude their that and to globalisation, hostile overwhelmingly are not shows public that British the survey Our on of globalisation BritishThe voters impact long-term (2511) all respondents Base: close) cent close/very (per groups? following the from distant or is close party you thinkLabour do the Figure 3: to extent what UKIP. once voted for who those among were limited gains that Labour’s has indicated Curtice John Professor although voters, UKIP overwinning former in may useful have establishment been political and economic ruling the from separation Labour’s elite political per cent)(65per cent) the and (68 below). sector Figure 3 financial the (see from distant is most (81 cent). (68 (69 per party cent), cent), The per per sector working-class public the the and surprisingly, not unions to is trade seen, the as closest to Labour key relation In in society, institutions concerns. everyday people’s touch with of out likely to be most party the C1s the among Tories Labour). The cent trust groups in both as(where 23 per only DEs are and seen economy the on voter trusted population) think that Tories being the and deal, best the get will cent voters (21 C2 of per 54 where cent is Brexit British weakest total on the of per party Labour The (42 EU’ management (47 the with deal economic cent) Brexit per ‘negotiating and cent). agood per (37 on lead cent). services cent), in per public Conservatives money for value The ensuring and day toin your areaabout cent), (40 crisis day (38 in Britain’ cost living of life per the per tackling concerns the people of are ‘understanding by public the most is trusted Labour issues which on The policies Perceptions of Labour's 12 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper Britain. for beneficial has been diversity religious and ethnic (47 DE cent) grade (48 year olds in social per those and 64 that cent) likely to per disagree were most positive. 55- has been likely to that diversity believe were most cent), degrees higher with those and (49olds cent), AB (47 per grade (45 in social those sector cent), per public in the per working those Britain’: 37 for while 18-24 cent 35 statement the good disagree. with cent per agree per been year has that ‘ethnic public British the diversity Moreover, among religious and is agreement less there cent) likely to agree. per (64 most were the education asecondary only with those over-65sThe (67 cent), per (65 C2s the cent), (65 Midlands per cent), east in the per living those and over taken (11 companies’ by being foreign from in Britain based companies cent disagreed). per prevent British should government UK that ‘the agreed cent 58 respondents of per Overall, workers. and companies British to to protect more do voters want governments and national as a whole, electorate than the globalisation about positive are less much well educated less the said, That England. of class north voters in the to makeworking- greater among headway Conservatism of brand isolationist and nationalistic more May’s 2017 in the Theresa of failure the alongside weak performance relatively election, general UKIP’s explain might partly globalisation pessimism about underlying of absence the Overall, (17 extent to same the register not did immigration movement and cent). per ‘corporations cent 58 said controlling per and elites’. globalisation, with surprisingly, Somewhat free we asked 2015 When jobs. British taking 2017 and associated most voters they terms what Labour for responsible was likely to that globalisation believe most voters were the C2 UK’sthe prospects. on effect anegative had that globalisation cent voters believed C2 of per 34 contrast, In UK. the on impact apositive had that thought globalisation than £55,000 more cent earning those of per 60 of globalisation. effects the about likely to haveyear opinion most are the sceptical or anegative voters a (37 £21,000 grade AB social cent). £34,000 per and between earning those voters and C2 annum (54 cent),18-24 per than £55,000 per more earning those among cent), (46 year olds per and strongest issurprisingly not your family’ and ‘you on globalisation of impact the of view A positive 13 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper middle incomes, that Labour is struggling with most. with is struggling that Labour incomes, middle on those voting meet’, are ‘making Labour. already ends who is particularly It those overwhelmingly –are rent in London exorbitant paying professionals or freeze benefits the of experience hand have who is it those first- –whether that are struggling they feel who Those spectrum. income the across and variables demographic other for controlling factor is asignificant model, regression the of results in the as shown This, comfortable. being reported who than those likely to vote Labour more were considerably income’ present Voters by their were they ‘struggling to on get said who (83 45-54 yearand olds cent) that big. gapis likely too the to agree per most were the cent), per (84 degrees cent), per (84 large’; is DE too university with Britain grade those in social those in poor and rich gapbetween that ‘the agreed survey inMoreover, our cent respondents 77 of per poor’). cent cent ‘the to for 3per (87 worse 76 better, while per cent were they getting thought were getting per people British the of (39 in 2017Labour cent). who per voted per centof those five Only standards that living believed the (65 cent), poor the per (54 cent), for in Britain’ per worse ‘people your family’ and ‘you and getting to be are believed poor’. in Britain’; standards cent ‘people ‘the living Conversely for for 7per and cent 13 your family’; and ‘you 9per only for but are improving standards living cent agree better; per rich’ are getting UK in the ‘the of standards think that living the richer. cent respondents of per 66 are getting rich the where is a country that believe Britain overwhelmingly survey in our public The Living and new the standards inequalities key concerns and these of voters? motivations are the what So groups. income middle C2 so-called by these populated into back are disproportionately government get to to win since needs it many marginal seats the of Labour issue for voters is strategic a major these to Appealing standards. living in their squeeze at present the are frustrated downwards and not by, voters are aspirational: get they upwards, income. These current their on look they but living problems major to over win likely are to less report failed far has so –that Labour others – and in this group Those budget. household their of by tight to through management get enough make and voters: incomes just live they low to on middle ‘make are the group This meet’ ends gravitated towards Conservatives. the ayear, have £21,000 increasingly £34,000 and between earning those and C2s the middle, havingoften a Those good and education, the poorest in segments of the working-class. the people who younger faceaffluent professional middle-class, precarious a future despite the either are Labour vote to tend who Those hollowed-out. been has support electoral its of middle-ground the that is faces now Labour that challenge electoral greatest The 5. Key voter groups 14 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper results of regression model) regression of results on of voting get by’,to Figure 5:‘struggling effect bracket full by income for (see Appendix Technical say voted they in 2017 who 2220Base: respondents income present by their to on get struggling or are comfortable they feel respondents by whether Conservatives, and Labour for Figure 4: support 15 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper to -31 cent) below: per as Figure 7demonstrates were even 35-54 greater (23 year among olds to -7university cent), than 55 per older those and (-4 to going of impact the gap and over(36 lead Conservatives). point education to 25 percentage The university attended had if they party Labour the likely more to Labour,support significantly but survey, our 18-34In were they voting aged in 2017 those said who likely to were more much vote Education and voting behaviour standards. voters’ living and economy British the for horizon the on are gathering clouds Dark working. agency temporary of growth the and change technological resulting market from labour in the ‘hollowing-out’ and polarisation growing with is widespread years;insecurity than atjob any 40 last in the time unstable are more incomes nowlesswas it than is worth overbenefit Household ago, affecting 17 families. years 10 million highlight thatFoundation child Resolution the example, for declined: has also benefits of value The in real terms. fall sharply payto begun has sector kick in. Public process Brexit of the effects full the before table Moreover, EU the of growth according at bottom the to is OECD UK already the the Source: Independent, The April 12 2017 payFigure versus inflation Nominal 6: UK earnings. eating into median pay growth, to outstrip beginning risingwas and Inflation standards. living falling and in realwages aclimate fought was stagnant of that 2017 the Tories the forced remembering is It worth issues. to downplay economic election Brexit since to a wages ‘hard’ deficit real the 2010 and down to bring of growth vulnerability the and failure The appreciated. than had they aliability of more that becoming was economy the realized evidently strategists Conservative campaign. the from disappearance total almost acknowledged, by Chancellor, the economy. the of state the Philip symbolized was about self- Hammond’s, This 2017 the feature of astonishing Perhaps most the debate serious of absence the was campaign 16 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper towards Conservatives: the ago. 2015, In in 2017 but grades; across social the vote evenly was distributed Labour’s swung DEs years thirty with compared grades has AB in grown social C1s the the support Labour’s DEs. or (79 cent) per than either as working-class likely to voters are more identify C2 to working-class. the AB say belong they Even cent grade society. voters of in 38 social per middle-class overwhelmingly is now claim an the that Britain as amyth exposes This cent upper-middle-class. 2per class, and 37 survey, cent our In middle- per 61 working-class, to be themselves cent voters perceived of per voting and Class say voted they in 2017 who 2220Base: respondents education Figure and by 7: age lead Labour 17 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper Base: 2220 respondents who say voted they in 2017 who 2220Base: respondents Figure voting 9: in 2017 2017 income by household annum according to per £21,000 Figure 9below: £34,000 and between earning incomes middle on those among deficit has it asignificant But earners. lowest the and earners highest the among now leads Labour party. Labour ayear the £55,000 say voted they for (35 cent Labour cent). to per 38 about per positive than more cent Moreover, earning those of per 46 cent unfavourable), per cent (34 to 46 favourable C1s per the while Conservatives least were the cent cent unfavourable)(46 to per 34 favourable per to and have the of view favourable a less party likely to have Labour are now the most of view grade afavourable AB in social the Those say voted they in 2017 who 2220Base: respondents 2017 election Figure general 8: voting grade, by social 18 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper semi-routine occupations:semi-routine and routine in scale employment the of end lower the at voters among weakest is support occupations’. technical and that indicates analysis This ‘intermediate, lower supervisory occupations; and professional and occupations; managerial in ‘routine semi-routine’ and population age working the of by percentage the in constituency each to Labour Conservative from swing the see we can grade, social than standard rather categories we NS-SEC occupational use If on voting effects Figure 10: socio-economic class’, grade: your of social regardless likely to you are more vote Labour as ‘working- line); (the likely red are to less much the of vote right side Labour you self-identify if have but occupation a‘DE’ as ‘middle-class’ in Figure as shown 10, model our In identify who those 19 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle Labour’s www.policy-network.net
policy network paper Figures 11, 12 key groups 13: and occupational among to Labour Conservative from swings 20 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper as the de facto pro-European party. 32 per cent of voters earning more than £55,000 per annum 32 per than £55,000 cent more voters of earning party. per pro-European facto asde the Labour establish to sufficient have to right appears to been UK the in the remain in Britain residing to and give EU target citizens migration anarbitrary to not set manifesto in Labour’s pledge The market. single the of continuing membership 50, to or support to not vote Article against deciding voters (see Figure 14however, to over win able was pro-remain party below) the despite Labour 65s Importantly, (47 England. of cent), per cent), (40 C2s the per north-east in the living those and by Voting desire to the remain. over- according the to to wish among the leave EU the strongest was UK leave in to the wishfor voting by the the were ‘strongly influenced’ EU, and per centof 17 voters Wanting desire to voters than the ‘remain’: to for motivator ‘leave’ EU the astronger was cent 30 per Conservatives. the from votes directly takecan Labour likely if most to are come election gainsnext at the additional significant parties, left-of-centre other for to vote Ultimately, tactically). support success Labour’s with in squeezing per notcent intending were closely (60 most with identified they party voting the not meant for Conservatives’. However, 15 only to vote intended they tactically, even said it if cent explicitly per According 31 to to the ensure ballot to ‘strong poll, their our opposition cast cent public the of per seats. ‘progressive that in key atacit evidence battleground alliance’ is operating was some There vote has declined. also Green national The elections. cent than 20 in general more per averaged (declining slightly to 7.5bottom have Democrats cent). Liberal the per 30 years, last the Over 2017, In party. Conservative the around at vote rock- share the of remained Democrat Liberal the right consolidated the whereas divided, was support centre-left because in part century 20th the in elections lost Historically, voters. Labour Green and Democrat Liberal former among up support vote, sweeping successLabour’s in 2017 centre-left the to unify ability to its small in no due was part Uniting the centre-left? class. since 1945. than at anyprofessionals election Tory working- more The and vote older is increasingly middle-class voters among fewer won Conservatives the over changing time: at this election, been has Tory the of party make-up social The Heath’s to defeat Government. stations Conservative into polling poured council on estates living occupations semi-routine and voters in routine is thatIt 2017 clear the 1974 February the not was working-class where election general election 21 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper housing market for those on modest incomes), June In modest on likely children. to those more have and for market housing dependent (due past than of in the toaccessing difficulties the the homeowners likely are to less year be olds 25-44 old. very the or young by very the shaped overwhelmingly anelection not was This year olds. in 2017 to heavily party the Labour, for that group swung the wot young it’ won were 25-44 ‘the that was it view media held widely the Despite election. in the factor decisive more the was olds year 25 to 44 among swing The gains. Labour unexpected the delivered voters who youngest the groups to motivating vote.However,younger at effective wasn’tit particularly was Corbyn Jeremy at 2017 the people young that is among evidence There performance improved its election. Labour The surge among the young? Brexit. to a‘hard’ opposition its voters despite away these of some to successful in peeling have appears been austerity. Labour by of seven years exacerbated establishment economic and antipathy to governing political the Europe, issues but and such as migration politics by identity motivated only not was historically vote Ukip The races. to in tight balance tip the cent, constituency enough 20 around per secured Labour while voters, Ukip cent former of per 60 won estimates that Conservatives Curtice the John supporters. Ukip former among too gained of Ukip’sLabour but collapse, beneficiaries were the 2017 the of Tories The to Conservatives. the shift vote only not that was Ukip did the campaign features towards heavily EU. remarkable the leaving more most the of leaned One who incomes lowest the on those among inroads made still Labour voters, remain among progress making Despite to Labour defectors Ukip say voted they in 2017 who 2220Base: respondents the in desire EU remain to by influenced vote strongly was Figure 14: election whose those voters and remain among voting movements time: first the for party Labour the Kensington, and by won such England as of Canterbury gains South in the unexpected producing to over, win hoped went ‘diehard to but were the Labour, Democrats remain’ voters that Liberal the by desireto EU. the in the remain motivated were strongly These degrees higher with those and 22 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper cent of the female vote; but the Conservatives led among men by 43 men among to 39 cent. led vote; per cent female Conservatives the the of but 41 secured both Conservatives per the and Labour Overall, to have women. with appears resonated 2017,In agenda policy women’s successful in capturing party’s relatively was votes. The Labour andGender voting Labour. alliance for electoral to ‘socialism’broad of have a building language in off appears paid Corbyn’s the eschew to largely decision beliefs. ideological by traditional motivated particularly not but are idealistic, in Britain that indicates people young Moreover, poll our from evidence the say voted they in 2017 who 2220Base: respondents Figure 15: voting by age 2017, as Figure 15 party, towards heavily Labour the leaned groups illustrates below: these 23 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper Figure 17: grades in AB social those outnumber households C2 where seats of percentage have 100 the than of AB voters: C2 out AB; more 66 top targets grade than social C2 have time grade voters in social more has to next win Labour constituencies parliamentary 64 However, that unites them. pattern that 41 know we do demographic or social the of out particular country, the of is no there region and in every exist seats These Commons. of House in the one of amajority to now has secure to in order win that Labour constituencies parliamentary are 64 There The new marginal seats say voted they in 2017 who 2220Base: respondents in 2017 voting byFigure gender 16: party 24 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper both ‘communitarian’both ‘cosmopolitan’ and Britain. voters that of inhabit to diversity the to appeal strategy political and electoral acoherent need will harder,become Tories with at 2017 the majorities gains increasing their or making Labour election. Stoke-on-Trent to has task leave voted decisively EU. South Labour’s the seats, many In latter the of like constituencies other pro-remain; thatclearly were Barnett such asseats Chipping affluent more are there course, towards heavily lean leave not Of do remain. average, or constituencies On these • • • are generally: on to focus need will marginals new Labour The as awhole. like more and Britain hold, currently they like less seats the look seats target Labour’s whole, the On 25 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle Have fewer voters outside born the UK Have fewer students whitevoters of proportion ahigher with Those www.policy-network.net
policy network paper None of this ignores the fact that Labour is still some way from winning a parliamentary majority majority aparliamentary winning way from some is still that Labour fact the this of ignores None 1980s efficiency. economic and to 1990s consumer both and welfare detrimental have been the of privatisations the are monopolies; natural UK in the industries revisited: manyto be privatised assumptionsPrevious rail. ought especially utilities, the of towards ownership private hostile more water, Yet into ownership. back rail gas public or is that it clear since 1997, has become opinion public like utilities public major to costly too bring to be believed was it because by Labour rejected was in the Nationalisation interest. public in the 1990s effectively regulated be could still sector private the through delivered services that public thought and was utilities It matters. longer no private or is public ownership that whether has been party assumptionLabour in the the 30 years, last For the knowledge. and information of distribution and towards production the geared economy in apost-industrial ownership public of question the was manifesto Labour in the issues raised important most the Among voters. mainstream with popular are still ‘leftwing’ to be perceived measures widely that are presented, effectively is that third when lesson project’s Corbyn The British voters. among waning be to appears newspapers of influence The confounded. been chances has Labour’s destroy assumption coverage that would press negative mainstream in the Moreover, the since 1945 towards attempt left. the audacious centre the politics of ground to shift most its made Labour Corbyn, under this In election settlement. Thatcher the of parameters basic by win accepting could only the country, that left and the conservative aninherently become had convinced Thatcherism of many that Britain ascendency The itself. to revitalise think and capacity the of party Labour the lobotomy. denuded anintellectual way This working of membership party to was government of give entire the PLP and aparty Labour to making approach best the as if behaved modernisers some past, at the taken In his to word. ought be he policy; about debate since late the 1980s. an open now wants says Corbyn he party the that has plagued defensiveness over to intellectual get the needs is that Labour project Corbyn the of lesson second The 8June. to on win unable was West that Labour North Glasgow and like in Stoke-on-Trent constituencies winning mean West, Thurrock, Reading South, will victory Labour Adecisive soon. relatively called likely to be appears election general Another government, and to deliver like policies and investment. public progressive redistribution enter to seats, marginal of numbers greater win to required is that ‘have nots’ and ‘haves’ The challenge ahead for Corbyn’s is project to alliance the the construct electoral between democracy. social aresurgence British of for platform the this might be forward carried If privilege. inherited away and institutions anachronistic sweeping of spoke campaign of the speech Hisfirst them. than ‘to’ rather things ‘with’ people doing that is about participation of politics an innovative offers apparently leader Labour The conviction. and clarity, principle of rare a combination articulated Corbyn’spolicy on targets. views reduction deficit missed and rises, tax cuts, of spending decade a nearly after society of vision analternative offered prospectus Labour’s calculation. by conventional constrained not was electoral his programme because ‘hope’ voting since UK in late the the from 1980s. thatgroups have abstained projected Corbyn increasingly social manyto as as well the is appeal thatvoters, lesson younger Corbyn’sevidently first politics The result. wake election in the the of project political Corbyn the from lessons strategic of anumber glean can We to respond. obliged now will be party the of to all sections which party Labour the of politics in the shift adecisive marks fought Corbyn Jeremy that campaign the doubt little be can There and conclusions Summary 6. 26 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper ‘new politics’ agenda. Moreover, too few voters see Labour as the party of environmentalism, at environmentalism, of asparty the Moreover, Labour agenda. voters‘new few see too politics’ 43 cent his just to own vote. on develop the of placed per seats is Corbyn Jeremy ideally most the that Conservatives gives the system electoral anachronistic and an outdated of because tactically to vote compelled voters were often English. At the voice lack of and the England election, the for particularly settlement, constitutional current in the imbalances the that UK addresses afederal for 1980s in the did 88 1990s. as Charter and change aplan creates We a consensus political for need beyond the issue of remaining in Europe. voters Green and Democrat Liberal former among appeal its consolidate to has Labour Third, as anissue immigration of is likely to salience remain. Europe. The movement of across freedom of impact the voters are unhappy about income lower to middle thatmany acknowledges ‘Brexit’ on stance Labour’s particular. in policing neighbourhood effective emphasising to communities law keep safe, on order and policies of generation a new develop has to party Labour The to over win marginal seats. in crucial needs many voters Labour the of to is attractive as an ‘authoritarian’ areparty viewed that Conservatives the fact the truth, In risks. disorder,public geo-political crime, and instability, family but about financial insecurity, concerns and economic only insecurity, not of have alive to to politics be the parties Centre-left defence. of 2017 issue the on However, particularly voters’ trust, campaign. in winning done to is be more there the during atrocities terrorist the of aftermath in the intelligence the agencies and in policing cuts of heightened terrorist threats. of atime at order social maintaining on weak relatively as viewed is Labour Second, with. most struggles currently many of ‘communitarian’ voters Labour the the of instincts interests), and sectional other or (not class belonging identity place and of sense to people’s appeal under-investment of would decades UK that haveof the suffered parts to the Concrete offers banks. development regional proposed the through example for economies, local to revitalise could help investment private low, is too investment public country in the to where and where map election next the has it now before time the use should Labour Instead, campaign. greater scrutiny next in the to subjected inevitably is platform Labour’s when unaffordable sounding risk and ‘retail’ offers other Labour’s with not level do sit national figures at the comfortably spending large and abstract in the Investment is local. that all politics premise the on Further, built be investment must plans Labour’s NHS. suchthe as services to improve efficiently public pay they is used reassuring voters that tax the as away taxes of ‘hypothecated’ new of consider introduction is the should that Labour solution possible One stability. threaten plans economic spending public that and its aspirations, people’s on to place acap wants that charge party the the of wary be also must Labour But services. public investment in extra for case to courage make the had anexplicit Labour tax. income higher paying ayear from than anyone £80,000 less earning excluded deliberately plans tax McDonnell’s John ‘cost the crisis’. to tackle living of placed is better party the even believe they if policies, Labour’s of impact the about concerned more to be to appear lower incomes middle on Those party. Labour the towilling support were most low incomes very and high research isour that very voters on isFirst, still not Labour perceived to be an economically competent party. budget. household their of by tight to through management get make enough and incomes just live groups low tovoters: on these middle to ‘make in appealing meet’ ends particularly addressed, urgently to be that need vulnerabilities has critical still Labour but forward, taken be can agenda Corbyn The comes. election next the to whenever win is guaranteed that Labour mean not does This did in Attlee as 1945. party Labour the with affiliation tribal is little there where Britain’ to out ‘non-Labour reaching of capable has to be party the supporters: committed to already rouse merely isenough It not Britain. throughout seats winning of capable has to be Labour Conservatives, since 27 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle Corbyn was effective in pointing out the damaging long-term effect effect long-term damaging the out pointing in effective was Corbyn The party needs a constitutional reform agenda that agenda reform aconstitutional needs party The The evidenceThe from www.policy-network.net
policy network paper just getting by, it can win the next election whenever it comes. it whenever election by, next getting the win just can it are who families those for fighting worker’s remains the party Labour if and policies, and strategy right the develops easy.be willnotparty sceptical if voters the But to these effectively Appealing incomes. by lower to voters on middle populated Commons of are disproportionately House the in majority anoutright to time secure has to next win that Labour seats parliamentary 64 The budget. household their of by diligent management to through get make enough and incomes just voters: live they low to on middle ‘make are the group This meet’ ends agenda. policy and political Britain’, ‘Communitarian Labour’s of populate merits the yet convinced are not about who and generally voters who grade social C2 the ayear: £21,000-34,000 earning those among support has to gain that means party the strategy That nation. the of breadth and across length and the classes, and grades all social among support ‘Attlee’ isbuilding of the approach strategy second The in 2017. Coalition core Corbyn the the of was This incomes. lowest the on groups voters; poorer younger and precarious class; economically middle- professional the among continuing approach: support to grow Labour’s Sanders’ ‘Bernie the is termed strategy available to first Labour. The strategies electoral and political are two there indicates analysis Our support. have will toelectoral grow its party Labour the terms, two at least for in office government aLabour sustain that can majority However, parliamentary adecisive to secure comes. it whenever election general thisIn next paper, the win can we have that Labour argued election. at next the progress to make in order further values its surrender not Corbyn’s need goals. Labour exclusive mutually are not society good the shaping and values Labour’s votes,winning upholding interdependence. and mutuality Yet of values on co-operation, premised society of kind different order, economic and social a new and of a confidence has the to speak He issueand positioning. of targeting voter politics the eschewing by brand Labour claim that has Corbyn ‘detoxified’ the in the truth is some There believe. does he what saying actually for gains credit much believes, he what of some with disagree by electorate who, even aman the of much if replaced haveyears been Labour New the of strategies vote-seeking cautious The calculation. by narrow electoral motivated that is not he that Corbyn’s Jeremy fact recognised the is centred on be appeal should it course, Of in France. President Macron with relationship constructive that Tories a the build negotiations the can badly, Labour areso mishandling if undertake especially to placed is it ideally mean Europe throughout parties centre-left relationships with constructive Labour’s people. of control migration the to better governments national provisions that enable movement’ of to ‘freedom current changes the securing while union, customs the and market single remains in UK the the as possible as in far which is apolicy to develop party Labour the for first. jobs puts that Brexit a‘progressive’ for plan own its need will Labour Fifth, office. for in preparing done to is work much be There industry. the of running such in the railways as agreater the that role workers gives citizens and a sector in ‘social’ ownership of has aform to develop party the programme: Labour’s of plank prominent Tory measures in the care social Equally, than manifesto. the proposal is now a nationalisation as a‘death by Conservatives the tax’, derided was sensible is it more amuch but policy The death. on have would taxed care residential estate their needed who people older in which proposals care government. for programme aviable assemble and challenges long-term address to has Labour Fourth, politics. in its as well as egalitarian green to be needs President Trump left when a time Paris to the The Climate destroy Agreement. Change is seeking 28 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle For instance, ahead of the 2010 election, Andy Burnham developed practical social social practical 2010 the of For ahead instance, developed Burnham Andy election, The challenge challenge The www.policy-network.net
policy network paper Figure 18: logistic regression model, probability of voting of Labour probability Figure 18: model, regression logistic below. are reported to 0.05. equal than less or Average all have but marginal effects a p-value todue small sub-samples, large relatively are confidence intervals cases, some per at a significant In level. cent 95 confidence as reported are Effects variables. categorical with replaced effects non-linear exhibiting variables with any wasordinal also or tested, continuous variable each of effect the of linearity The model. the to added effects significant and tested, interest then were of theoretical effects Interaction confidence level. per wereat significant the cent 95 variables until additional no this and repeated was baseline, the to added was p-value lowest the with variable The to that baseline. temporarily it by adding tested was variable additional each then model, creating aninitial baseline simultaneously to model the (<0.01) p-values lowest the with Those model. in the included initially be should were initially added variables demographic which to were establish computed models regression logistic bivariate Next, were small sub-samples. there where to and collapse variables points, data outlier extreme variables, explanatory the between to multicollinearity were run test initial diagnostics First, model. in the by Populus were applied provided voter at 2017 the voteraLabour be will weights respondent The an individual election. general that probability on the of interest factors demographic in of discrete changes to effect measure the analysis regression another, logistic uses one from study our factors these to disentangle order In to shown correlatevoting have with intention. been factors demographic individual of A number analysis Regression were weighted by 2017 2015 the down-weighted result and sample. election general Labour 2015 2017 and overall results The analysis. detailed size for sample voters to ensure arobust Labour 2511Populus surveyed 2-5 2017, June between Britain in Great online people of boosters including Survey Technical6. appendix 29 North WestNorth East North City-dweller Nonwhite Christian Male Home ownership age#university sity Has attended univer Age (singleyear) | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle - Coef. -0.026 -0.427 -0.131 -0.210 -0.559 0.574 1.044 0.490 0.595 0.020 Std. Err. 0.243 0.310 0.121 0.282 0.120 0.115 0.133 0.007 0.366 0.005 z -3.570 -1.140 -1.580 -1.530 -5.260 2.360 3.370 4.040 2.110 2.810 <0.001 <0.001 P>z 0.018 0.001 0.035 0.000 0.254 0.113 0.005 0.126 (95%) Lower CI -0.661 -0.357 -0.470 -1.276 -0.036 0.098 0.437 0.252 0.042 0.006 (95%) Upper CI -0.192 -0.016 1.050 1.651 0.727 1.148 0.094 0.050 0.034 0.158 www.policy-network.net
policy network paper 30 Pseudo R-squared size Sample Constant get by strugglingtoReally Struggling to getby by nor strugglingto get Neither comfortable dle-class#DE orupper-mid Middle- dle-class#C2 orupper-mid Middle- dle-class#C1 orupper-mid Middle- gradeSocial DE gradeC2Social gradeSocial C1 dle-class orupper–mid Middle- £55k moreIncome than £34-55k Income £21-34k Income £14-21k Income WestSouth East South Scotland East ofEngland Wales East Midlands West Midlands side Yorkshire &Humber | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle - - - - - 2049.000 -0.568 -1.144 -1.001 -0.580 -0.010 -0.057 -0.464 -0.108 -0.022 -0.502 -0.298 -0.011 0.140 0.247 0.296 0.477 0.696 1.218 0.664 0.349 0.111 0.153 0.327 0.106 0.362 0.269 0.268 0.257 0.424 0.274 0.170 0.139 0.348 0.383 0.291 0.220 0.245 0.214 0.211 0.251 0.200 0.173 0.181 0.267 0.240 0.281 0.250 -0.040 -0.280 -2.680 -0.590 -0.080 -2.090 -1.060 -0.040 -1.570 -3.280 -2.620 -1.990 0.510 0.620 1.530 0.500 0.920 1.110 1.850 1.640 4.450 3.900 2.510 <0.001 <0.001 0.613 0.533 0.127 0.615 0.968 0.777 0.007 0.553 0.933 0.037 0.289 0.964 0.117 0.359 0.269 0.064 0.101 0.012 0.001 0.009 0.046 -0.320 -0.328 -0.093 -0.307 -0.502 -0.449 -0.803 -0.464 -0.545 -0.972 -0.849 -0.500 -1.279 -0.281 -0.229 -0.027 -0.135 -1.826 -1.751 -1.149 0.681 0.330 0.076 -0.124 -0.031 -0.461 -0.251 -0.010 0.543 0.633 0.746 0.519 0.482 0.335 0.248 0.501 0.253 0.478 0.142 0.774 0.821 0.981 1.527 1.755 0.997 0.622 www.policy-network.net
policy network paper Figure 19: marginal effects of logistic regression model regression Figurelogistic of 19: marginal effects 31 get by struggling toReally Struggling to getby by nor strugglingto get Neither comfortable DE C2 C1 dle-class orupper–mid Middle- £55k moreIncome than £34-55k Income £21-34k Income £14-21k Income WestSouth East South Scotland East ofEngland Wales East Midlands West Midlands side Yorkshire &Humber WestNorth East North dwellerCity Nonwhite Christian Male Home ownership sity Has attended univer Age (singleyear) | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle - - - dy/dx -0.065 -0.048 -0.094 -0.002 -0.011 -0.091 -0.022 -0.004 -0.095 -0.058 -0.002 -0.107 -0.086 -0.026 -0.042 -0.004 0.068 0.018 0.050 0.061 0.099 0.119 0.217 0.099 0.122 0.088 0.249 0.133 Std. Err. 0.056 0.034 0.027 0.035 0.037 0.031 0.025 0.051 0.041 0.034 0.037 0.053 0.046 0.054 0.050 0.066 0.055 0.055 0.053 0.049 0.062 0.025 0.059 0.024 0.023 0.027 0.027 0.001 z -1.070 -0.040 -1.620 -3.530 -1.140 -1.570 -4.860 -1.870 -1.300 -3.820 -0.040 -0.280 -2.650 -0.590 -0.080 -2.070 0.920 1.110 1.880 2.420 3.500 4.010 2.070 3.240 4.460 3.890 2.530 0.570 P>z <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.286 0.964 0.105 0.358 0.267 0.061 0.016 0.039 0.255 0.117 0.001 0.011 0.062 0.193 0.572 0.968 0.777 0.008 0.553 0.933 0.039 (95%) Lower CI -0.165 -0.100 -0.236 -0.057 -0.047 -0.004 -0.133 -0.070 -0.094 -0.005 -0.133 -0.120 -0.044 -0.143 -0.102 -0.091 -0.158 -0.094 -0.109 -0.185 0.023 0.095 0.050 0.006 0.035 0.140 0.066 0.015 (95%) Upper CI -0.038 -0.002 -0.046 -0.024 -0.005 0.049 0.096 0.022 0.158 0.168 0.202 0.216 0.339 0.147 0.237 0.019 0.010 0.142 0.359 0.200 0.121 0.003 0.024 0.079 0.098 0.068 0.050 0.100 www.policy-network.net
policy network paper Figure 21:education and age effect, interaction grade social and classidentity effect, Figure 20: interaction 32 | Don't Forget |Don't |June2017 majority |HowThe Labourcanbuild anewcentre-left Middle www.policy-network.net
policy network paper