General

A Seminar on “: Current Situation and Prognosis” was held at the Manekshaw Center on 28 Mar 2012. The event by was chaired by Prof Kalim Bahadur, former Professor, School of International Studies, JNU. The main speaker was Capt (IN) Alok Bansal, Senior Fellow, CLAWS, while the two discussants were Mr Sushant Sareen, Senior Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation and Mr Rana Banerji, former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. The concluding remarks were made by Maj Gen Dhruv Katoch, SM, VSM (Retd), Additional Director, CLAWS.

Opening Remarks: Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd), Director CLAWS

Of all the problems that Pakistan is facing, one of the more serious is the fissiparous tendencies emerging across the state. Of late, even the Sindhis want to go back on their old commitment of joining Pakistan and now yearn for an independent ‘Sindhu Desh’. The movement is nascent but nevertheless, over a hundred thousand people staged a peaceful march in support of their demand. The demand for Pakhtunkhwa has been simmering under the surface for long and, depending on which way the wind blows, could find actualisation after the ISAF forces draw down from Afghanistan in 2014. A nascent demand for autonomy is growing in Gilgit Baltistan which could erupt into a larger movement for independence. Balochistan, which is the topic of this seminar is perhaps the province of greatest concern wherein the demand for Independence has never left the consciousness of the Balochi people.

Some years ago, at the Observers Research Foundation discussed the issue of the –Pakistan-India oil pipe line. The participants were firmly of the view that the pipeline was not a good idea as it would be difficult to ensure security of the pipeline from Jihadi attacks and Indian investment would not be safe. Senator Sanaullah Baloch, then Member of Pakistan Senate, gave an even stronger reaction by stating that the Balochi people will not allow the pipeline to run even for a single day because Pakistan will not pay the Baloch province the royalty they deserve on the gas passing through their geographical territory. This highlights the deepest division between Balochistan and rest of Pakistan. This division has historical roots but is also an expression of the opposition to the callous neglect of the region by successive Pakistan Governments.

Remarks by the Chairperson

Balochis have been fighting for their independence ever since 1947. They have made innumerable sacrifices since the 50’s and 70’s and the situation is becoming serious and deteriorating every day. Unfortunately, the dual establishment of army and politicians in Pakistan have not realised that they are looking at repetition of 1971 when majority of population of present Bangladesh revolted against them and seceded into a new nation. Capt (IN) AlokBansal, Senior Fellow, CLAWS

Balochistan is in the news again. Consequent to the US Congressional hearing on Balochistan, this province is back in media headlines after a long time. In between, there was a considerable period when, despite all violence and suppression actions, it had receded from media glare. Some facets of the current situation in Balochistan are: -

As per Voice of Baloch People, there are about 14,385 Balochis who are classified as missing persons. These persons were picked up by the Security Agencies and their traces are unknown.

There are almost 400 bullet ridden mutilated bodies found in last two years, most of them bearing severe torture marks.

According to estimate from a Baloch website, almost 90 per cent of Baloch territory (less the territory in the North, which is dominated by Pakhtuns), is dominated by the Baloch Nationalist Forces and the government writ is actually confined to towns and cities.

Baloch Nationalists have been targeting outsiders, Muslim Punjabis have been identified as valid targets and off late, even Mohajir speaking population has also been targeted.

According to Human Rights Commission of Pakistan report of 2011, over 100 families of Mohajir and Punjabi families have migrated out of the province. The Balochis have been marking the houses of so called ‘outsiders’ with red marks for easy target identification.

Security Forces have been trying to divide the Baloch Nationalists. Despite not being totally united under one singular command, most of the Baloch Nationalist groups have common objectives. While they have forged some sort of operational cooperation towards the cause of independence, Security Forces have been trying to create differences along tribal / sectarian lines and this has had huge sectarian backlash. Malik Ishaq, who was alleged to have killed 70 odd Shias has been released.

Over 100 Shias have been killed in Sectarian violence in Balochistan in 2011 itself. There have been some reprisal attacks on Sunni clerics also.

Deep persecution of minority families has been resorted to by the Nationalists. Over 100 Hindu families have migrated from Balochistan because of threats of kidnapping and demands for extortion.

The US Congressional Hearing has given tremendous boost to the Baloch Nationalist Movement and the reaction from the Pakistani establishment has been expectantly harsh. The level of violence in Balochistan has consistently been high. From 2006 till this Congressional hearing, though Balochistan had receded from the media headlines, it had by no means become peaceful. The level of violence remained consistently high and unabated, except for three months from Sep to Jan 2009, when the Baloch Nationalists had offered a unilateral ceasefire consequent to national elections in Pakistan.

Importance of Balochistan to Pakistan

Balochistan comprises of 43.6 per cent of land mass of Pakistan but has only about 5 per cent of its population. In 1947, the bulk of the territory of present day Balochistan was under a fully functional princely state of Kalat under Khan of Kalat. Kalat had two Houses of Legislature, with a British as Foreign Minister and Mr Jinnah as Legal Advisor. The State of Kalat had submitted to the Cabinet Mission that its status was similar to that of State of Nepal and that their treaty relations were with Whitehall and not New Delhi; and thus pleaded similar status. When proposal to merge Kalat with Pakistan was put to vote in Kalat parliament, the leader of Kalat’s Lower House, Mr Mir Gaus Bakhsh Bizenjo (heading the political party – Kalat State National Party) said that if the mere fact that Kalat is a Muslim state and should thus must merge with Pakistan, then even Iran and Afghanistan must be asked to merge with Pakistan. He countered the contention that Kalat could not survive without Pakistan, by stating that Kalat had mineral wealth and a long coast line and Pakistan too could not survive without Kalat. This was the high point of Kalat Nationalism.

Kalat remained independent till 27 March 1948, when troops were mobilised and the Khan of Kalat was forced to sign the accession on 28 Mar 48. Immediately, his brother, Prince Karim led the first rebellion against the Pakistani occupation. It is significant that at the time when the rest of Pakistan was celebrating the creation of new State, there was a major group actually revolting against the creation of the State. The Balochis revolted in 1959, then again from 1963 to 69 and then again from 1973 to 1979. At the height of violence in the seventies, 80,000 Security Forces personnel were battling 55,000 insurgents. The Pakistan Security Forces were supported by Iranian Air Force and the Shah of Iran, who was worried about the restlessness in his part of Balochistan. Post 1979, there was relative peace for three decades. Amnesty was granted and the Baloch Nationalists were co-opted into the National Government.

Violence erupted again in 2004 and continues till date. Gen Musharraf when in power exhibited a cavalier attitude towards the Baloch and sought to address the issue by force. The killing of Nawab Bugti was a major turning point in the Baloch Movement, a consequence being that it actually succeeded in bringing the tribes together. At this time, due to the emergence of the Taliban, media focus shifted away from Balochistan, despite continuing high levels of violence which remain till date. State Response

The edifice of Pakistan was centred on promoting an all-inclusive Islamic identity to subsume the ethnic identities of the people. In Balochistan, this was partly successful and by the 2004 elections, during the Musharaf era, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) had made deep inroads into Balochistan. Inter-tribal and intra tribal differences were also propped up by the state as part of its policy to keep control over the area. Sectarian violence has seen an upswing with targeted killing of Shias. Another strategy of the Security Forces has been to eliminate the leaders of Baloch movement. After killing Nawab Bugti, and Nawabzada , they have been targeting those who could emerge as potential leaders of the Baloch movement. There has been excessive use of air power and artillery leading to heavy collateral damage. Also, by demographic engineering, Pakistan is trying to settle people from outside the region in Balochistan. During Afghan war, large numbers of Afghan refugees were settled here. Off late the whole Gwadar project and the land along the coastal highway has been sold out to people from outside Balochistan. This remains a major grouse of people of Balochistan.

Baloch Response

The causes of the Baloch movement could be attributed to the following: -

 Lack of Representation in the Government.  Economic Exploitation.  Ethnic Marginalisation.  Absence of Autonomy.  Lack of Political and Cultural Freedom.  Mega Infrastructural Projects being set up in the Province have not provided any benefit to the local people.  There is External Support which props up the movement. This arises more from Western interests in the region, especially US interests in Afghanistan.

As Balochistan is vast and arid, the Pakistani Army, and other security forces are targeted along the long lines of communication. The main targets have been as under:-

 Security personnel.  Government collaborators.  Punjabi settlers.  Chinese Companies.  Gas pipelines.  Communication links – telephone, micro wave towers etc.  Electricity power grids.  Coal mining operations.  Railway and Road bridges.

Present Status of Baloch Insurgency

The Baloch alienation is more or less complete. On 23 March 2012, there was a shutter down strike in entire Balochistan province. Pakistan government was so worried on this day that, for 8 to 10 hours, entire mobile communication network was shut down. This was to prevent people from passing derogatory SMSs or bring people out to protest.

To protest 64 years of Pakistani occupation, the Province observed a complete shutdown on 27 Mar 2012. In all schools in Balochistan, neither the Pakistan flag is flown nor the national anthem sung. The insurgency has reached a stage where it is actively and anxiously looking for external sponsors and the US Congressional Hearing has given tremendous boost to the movement.

In 2008 elections in Balochistan, the polling percentage was least and the current provincial government does not represent actual will of Baloch people. A fresh election could possibly change situation.

The Security Forces have succeeded in creating divisions and the sectarian violence continues unabated. They do not seem to be keen to compromise on Balochistan and they want a hard-line posture against the Baloch government. Any half-baked reconciliatory efforts of Pakistani federal government have been vetoed by Security Forces.

Mr Sushant Sareen, Senior Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation

To link the sectarian terrorism and say that it is a division in the independence movement is not entirely correct. The sectarian violence in Balochistan has more to do with the sponsorship of the Taliban groups by the Pakistan state. Groups like Quetta Shura and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi are both enemies of the Pakistani state at one level and a strategic asset at another level. They have been promoted to counter ethnic nationalism. Ever since formation of Pakistan, Islamism has been seen by the state as an antidote to ethnic nationalism. Evidence suggests that many religious parties have made deep inroads into Balochistan and are posing a challenge to Baloch nationalists. While the Pakistan state says that attacks on NATO convoys in this area is the work of Baloch nationalists working with Taliban, I think that this is a canard to destroy credibility of the Balochis. It is the work of Taliban groups in these areas that are carrying out the attacks with complete impunity with the state turning a blind eye. These religious groups active in the area also carry out Shia butchering.

Independence movement has become more robust in some ways. Although was a reluctant entrant to the freedom struggle, his killing provided the much needed impetus to the movement. On the other hand, while the Sardars talk of a united movement, they are more driven by their individual interests and regularly resort to hyperbole. Pakistan is reacting to the situation in a heavy handed manner with extensive use of gunships and artillery in the area. Death squads have been pushed in, which are responsible for kidnappings, killings and torture. Some shadowy vigilante groups have been raised which take credit for most of the controversial killings in the area. The aim of the state is to bludgeon Balochis, but this is causing more alienation among the people.

The basic structure of the freedom movement has now transformed from the Sardars to a new emerging middle class resistance which cuts across tribal lines. It equally troubles the Sardars as it challenges their authority. Dr Allah Nazar has emerged as the biggest icon of the Baloch movement. The movement however is severely starved for resources and is succeeding in spite of not finding any external assistance.

Unless there is some tangible international material, monetary, political or diplomatic support, Pakistan is strong enough to bludgeon the into silence. However, the changing international scenario does open up a few interesting choices. A friendly and independent Balochistan is a one stop solution for international interests in the region. Balochistan as a separate entity will enable a presence in Afghanistan, an ability to create trouble in Iran as well as to keep a watch over Pakistan.

The biggest problem is that the Balochis have not been able to have a unified national movement. They only air their grievances but do not project a vision for the future though there has been an effort to put up a freedom charter recently. In absence of a unified stand, it is difficult to force the state to negotiate.

Mr Rana Banerji, Former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat

There is an overwhelming disproportionate force of the state in region. In addition to the two Divisions of 12 Corps, 33000 personnel of 48 Wings of Frontier Corps are distributed over the A & B areas of the province. B areas are those that have been given by the state to the Sardars. State police is effective only in the A areas and the writ of the state does not run in B areas. Frontier Corps has been more effective against about 5000 Baloch liberation fighters which are divided into three main groups. The Sardari culture psychologically remains part of the Baloch psyche but things are now changing. A recent survey in various colleges has shown the emergence of an articulate educated Balochi youth which is deeply alienated from Pakistan.

The Pakistani State, besides using the traditional manner of scuttling the movement, is also trying other methods including media management. Two recent articles by General Musharraf, although more for personal interest, have tried to disparage the entire Baloch movement. These opinions were countered by Sana Baloch who effectively negated some of the opinions of Musharraf. Judiciary has been on the back foot for not having taken up the case of disappearing people earlier. They have now taken cognisance and the Chief Justice has accused the Army and ISI of having mishandled the Baloch situation. In response, the Army has asked for appearance in higher courts in camera to bring out certain facts to satisfy the judges of the hand of secessionist movement.

The allegation of an Indian hand is being churned out regularly. However, there is no evidence of this. Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, who had been Pakistan's High Commissioner to India, has written balanced articles in the Pakistani media to say that while India does have the possibility of leverage but it cannot actually do anything to support the Baloch cause in absence of territorial contiguity.

Balochis feel that the world will recognize the justness of their cause. Balochis moderate voices have been repeatedly silenced, it is not clear by whom, whether state forces or by hardliners which do not want their agendas to be compromised.

Discussion

There was a report of the Dawn newspaper refusing to tone down the coverage of the Baloch issue. The paper was denied government advertisements and had to approach the court for reprieve. Of late, Dawn has changed its editorial policy and has ceased to give importance to Baloch issues as it used to in the past.

Pakhtoons have become too much part of establishment to be part of any nationalist movement. Pakhtoon nationalism has not been revived. There has also been a clash of interests between Pakhtoons and Balochis and Pakhtoons and Sindhis. Baloch-Sindhi- Mahar is still relevant.

In one declaration, Baloch separatists stated that the ‘Balochistan country’ will sign the CTBT if Balochistan becomes an independent country. In this eventuality, Pakistan will lose its only testing ground and would be forced to accept the CTBT.

India does not have an access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. It has to depend on Iran and thus has to support Iran on issues which might be inimical to India. An access to these parts independent of Iran and Pakistan is in India’s interests. A sovereign Balochistan also sounds the death knell for the two nation theory.

Afghanistan continues to be supportive of the insurgency. Despite Pakistani claims however, there are no camps running in Afghanistan to support the movement.

Baloch movement has been able to sustain itself since 2004. They may have constraints of high technology weapons, but they do not lack ammunition. has carried out some emphatic attacks in Iranian Balochistan, including suicide attacks. The same has not been practiced by the Balochi nationalists. It has a Sunni sectarian agenda and reports suggest that it does have some western support to cause unrest in Iran. Persecution of Baloch in Iran acquires sectarian undertone besides an ethnic one.

There is no evidence of state sponsored assistance being given to Balochis from Afghanistan. At best the state is turning a blind eye, basically to give back to Pakistan for what it is doing in Afghanistan. As the whole area of Afghanistan and Pakistan is awash with weapons, it is not difficult to support the insurgency in terms of arms. But there is still a dearth of resources for a sustained movement.

US interest in the area is still not clear. The resolution by two US congressmen in the US Congress may be a trial balloon being launched to gauge the reaction. A similar attempt was made by the US in Kashmir in the 90s. Pakistan has not given clearance to US to open a consulate in Quetta.

The opinion of most people in Balochistan is for independence. However, it would need strong external support to sustain the movement.

India needs to define its policy on Pakistan. Most governments have resorted to small gestures to break the logjam. The small numbers of moderates in Pakistan is its public face but do not form its reality. Pakistan Army, although professional, has been highly Islamized. Only a clear policy on Pakistan will define our stand on Balochistan.

Jundallah may have had support from either CIA or ISI in the past but not any longer, firstly due to the changed equation between CIA and ISI and secondly because Pakistan does not want to antagonise Iran.

While the resentment of the Balochis will not wither away, the scare of alienation will ensure that the turmoil will continue to simmer but nothing major will happen in the next five to ten years. The children of Sardars and the new middle class leaders will continue to fan the dissent.

India’s role in this region is in uncertain domain due to varied international pressures. The decision will have to be a deliberate political one.

As far as Afghanistan’s involvement is concerned, after Musharraf’s ouster, Karzai and Zardari have been sweet talking to each other. This has resulted in much of support to Balochis being stopped. Most Balochi leaders have now shifted base to Europe. Pakistan does not feel that Afghanistan presently has the capability to trouble it in Balochistan.

Closing Remarks: Maj Gen Dhruv Katoch (Retd), Additional Director CLAWS Disturbances have been taking place all across Pakistan and the situation is extremely volatile. General Musharraf, writing in his recent two articles, has stated that the Pakistan’s military has adequate conventional capability. However, Pakistan Army’s ability to handle insurgency across the length and breadth of the country is doubtful and this is a dangerous signal which needs to be flagged. While India has little control over what will happen in Pakistan, the unfolding situation needs to be continuously monitored and analysed for appropriate response. The situation is volatile and throws up a tantalising set of possibilities.