Do Iceland’s volcanoes pose a threat to the UK?
JA Stevenson1
1Royal Society of Edinburgh / Scottish Government Research Fellow School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh
Geographical Association - 15 April 2014
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They’re unlikely to kill you, but they can certainly make life miserable.
Sort of. Sort of.
They’re unlikely to kill you, but they can certainly make life miserable. Locations in Iceland
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1 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds
2 Perceptions and reality of Icelandic volcanism Frequency of eruptions and ash clouds Hekla and Katla: ready to blow? Volcanoes and climate
3 Potential impacts of the largest eruptions Explosive: Hekla 3 and Hekla 4 Effusive: Laki 1783
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1 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds
2 Perceptions and reality of Icelandic volcanism Frequency of eruptions and ash clouds Hekla and Katla: ready to blow? Volcanoes and climate
3 Potential impacts of the largest eruptions Explosive: Hekla 3 and Hekla 4 Effusive: Laki 1783
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1 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds
2 Perceptions and reality of Icelandic volcanism Frequency of eruptions and ash clouds Hekla and Katla: ready to blow? Volcanoes and climate
3 Potential impacts of the largest eruptions Explosive: Hekla 3 and Hekla 4 Effusive: Laki 1783
Blog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 5 / 51 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Outline
1 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds
2 Perceptions and reality of Icelandic volcanism Frequency of eruptions and ash clouds Hekla and Katla: ready to blow? Volcanoes and climate
3 Potential impacts of the largest eruptions Explosive: Hekla 3 and Hekla 4 Effusive: Laki 1783
Blog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 6 / 51 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 The eruption began with basalt lava
http://www.npr.org/ Halldor Kolbeins/AFP/Getty Images
23 days eruption; 0.02 km3 lava; 1.3 km2
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Páll Einarsson - University of Iceland; Gudmundsson et al (2012)
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http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/04/more_from_eyjafjallajokull.html AP Photo/Brynjar Gauti
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Páll Einarsson - University of Iceland; Gudmundsson et al (2012)
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Peter Vancoillie, Your Shot via nationalgeographic.com
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40 days eruption; 0.3 km3 tephra
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Image: Wikipedia/Flickr - katjung
95,000 cancelled flights Image: Eric Moody, British Airways Economic impact: e5 billion
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Gudmundsson et al (2012)
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Stevenson et al (2012)
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4 days eruption; 0.7 km3 tephra 900 flights cancelled, mainly in Scotland and Scandinavia
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Most of the tephra was deposited south of the crater...... from the lowest part of the plume
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Most of the tephra was deposited south of the crater...... from the lowest part of the plume
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Stevenson et al (2013)
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Stevenson et al (2013)
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Stevenson et al (2013)
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Data from ICAO: http://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/Facts-Figures_WorldEconomyData.aspx
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Data from ICAO: http://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/Facts-Figures_WorldEconomyData.aspx
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Data from ICAO: http://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/Facts-Figures_WorldEconomyData.aspx
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Predicting concentrations is more difficult
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Predicting concentrations is more difficult
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Predicting concentrations is more difficult
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Predicting concentrations is more difficult
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Predicting concentrations is more difficult
Blog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 27 / 51 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds Models predict location and timing well
Predicting concentrations is more difficult
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Predicting concentrations is more difficult
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Predicting concentrations is more difficult
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Predicting concentrations is more difficult
Blog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 27 / 51 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds Models predict location and timing well
Predicting concentrations is more difficult
Blog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 27 / 51 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds Models predict location and timing well
Predicting concentrations is more difficult
Blog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 27 / 51 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds Models predict location and timing well
Predicting concentrations is more difficult
Blog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 27 / 51 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds Models predict location and timing well
Predicting concentrations is more difficult
Blog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 27 / 51 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds Models predict location and timing well
Predicting concentrations is more difficult
Blog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 27 / 51 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds Models predict location and timing well
Predicting concentrations is more difficult
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Predicting concentrations is more difficult
Blog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 27 / 51 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds Models predict location and timing well
Predicting concentrations is more difficult
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Predicting concentrations is more difficult
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Predicting concentrations is more difficult
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Predicting concentrations is more difficult
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Predicting concentrations is more difficult
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1 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds
2 Perceptions and reality of Icelandic volcanism Frequency of eruptions and ash clouds Hekla and Katla: ready to blow? Volcanoes and climate
3 Potential impacts of the largest eruptions Explosive: Hekla 3 and Hekla 4 Effusive: Laki 1783
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Leadbetter and Hort (2011)
An eruption every ∼5 years 75% are explosive Wind blows to SE about 33% of the time
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Terrametrics / Google Earth
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Larsen et al (1998)
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Recent eruptions 1755
Larsen (2010) 1823 1860 16 of the past 20 eruptions similar to or smaller than 1918 Grímsvötn 1955? 1999? (2011?)
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Data from Icelandic Met Office http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/
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Recent eruptions: 1947, 1970, 1980, 1991, 2000
Ofeigsson et al (2011)
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McCormick et al (1995) IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
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1 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011 Eyjafjallajökull 2010 Grímsvötn 2011 Mapping volcanic ash clouds
2 Perceptions and reality of Icelandic volcanism Frequency of eruptions and ash clouds Hekla and Katla: ready to blow? Volcanoes and climate
3 Potential impacts of the largest eruptions Explosive: Hekla 3 and Hekla 4 Effusive: Laki 1783
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Hekla 3: 2879±34 14C years BP; 12 km3 Hekla 4: 3826±12 14C years BP; 9 km3 (Larsen and Thorarinsson, 1977; Dugmore, 1989) Likely duration of main eruption: hours to days
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Hekla 3: 2879±34 14C years BP; 12 km3 Hekla 4: 3826±12 14C years BP; 9 km3 (Larsen and Thorarinsson, 1977; Dugmore, 1989) Likely duration of main eruption: hours to days
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Dugmore (1989)
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341 locations, 461 samples
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341 locations, 461 samples
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NASA MODIS image via Icelandic Met Office http://www.vedur.is/vedur/athuganir/vedurtungl/modis/
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United States Geological Survey Keszthelyi et al (2004)
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8 months eruption; 14.7 km3 lava; 565 km2
Thordarson and Self (2003)
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8 months eruption; 14.7 km3 lava; 565 km2
Thordarson and Self (2003)
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Jón Steingrimmsson quotes via Witze and Kanipe, Island on Fire
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Jón Steingrimmsson quotes via Witze and Kanipe, Island on Fire On the stench of the lava flows: “as if burning coals had been doused with urine”
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Jón Steingrimmsson quotes via Witze and Kanipe, Island on Fire On the symptoms of fluorine poisoning: “These people who did not have enough older and undiseased supplies of food to last them through these times of pestilence also suffered great pain. Ridges, growths, and bristles appeared on their rib joins, ribs, the backs of their hands, their feet, legs, and joints. Their bodies became bloated, the inside of their mouths and their gums swelled and cracked, causing excruciating pains and toothaches.”
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Jón Steingrimmsson quotes via Witze and Kanipe, Island on Fire On the lack of food: “cooked what skins and hide ropes they owned, and restricted themselves to the equivalent of one leather shoepiece per meal, which was sufficient if soaked in soured milk and spread with fat”
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Jón Steingrimmsson quotes via Witze and Kanipe, Island on Fire
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Ken Carlslaw, Leeds Univeristy Schmidt et al (2011)
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Ken Carlslaw, Leeds Univeristy Schmidt et al (2011)
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Ken Carlslaw, Leeds Univeristy Schmidt et al (2011)
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1 Aviation rules and weather are as important as eruption duration and style in determining impact on flights 2 On average, ash clouds reach the UK every two decades 3 The largest eruptions can affect European populations and agriculture
Acknowledgements Colleagues at Edinburgh University, the British Geological Survey, the Met Office, University of Iceland, Icelandic Met Office Open source map-making tools: GRASS, QGIS, Python Basemap, OpenLayers
Blog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 48 / 51 Further reading Further reading I Books Popular science Witze A, Kanipe J (2014) Island on fire: the extraordinary story of Laki, the volcano that turned eighteenth-century Europe dark. Profile Books, London Introductory guide Jerram D (2011) Introducing volcanology: a guide to hot rocks. Dunedin, Edinburgh Field guide Thordarson T, Hoskuldsson A (2002) Iceland - Classic Geology in Europe. Terra Publishing Undergraduate textbook Francis P, Oppenheimer C (2004) Volcanoes. Oxford University Press, Oxford; New York Websites Global Volcanism Program: http://www.volcano.si.edu/ British Geological Survey myVolcano app: http://www.bgs.ac.uk/myvolcano/ Volcanoes Top Trumps: http://volcanoestoptrumps.org/ Icelandic Met Office: http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/ Streva Project (volcanic hazards): http://streva.ac.uk/ Blogs Eruptions: http://www.wired.com/category/eruptions volcan01010: http://all-geo.org/volcan01010/every-post-ever/ Volcanic Degassing: http://volcanicdegassing.wordpress.com/ Twitter @eruptionsblog: Volcano news as it happens @alexwitze: Geology-themed science news @volcan01010: Volcanoes, Iceland, open source software @volcanofile: Volcanoes and atmosphere @jonathanstone10: Communicating volcanic hazards @volcanologist: General volcanology, #volcanomonday photos @subglacial: Volcanoes, Iceland, Chile photos
Blog: all-geo.org/volcan01010 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @volcan01010 49 / 51 References References I
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