Environmental and Economic Impacts of Chemical Fertilizer Use: a Case Study of the North China Plain

Environmental and Economic Impacts of Chemical Fertilizer Use: A Case Study of the North China Plain Thesis Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degrees Master of Arts and Master of Science in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Jane Elizabeth Powell, B.A. East Asian Studies Interdisciplinary Program and Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics The Ohio State University 2018 Thesis Committee: Karen M. Mancl, Adviser Hongtao Yi H. Allen Klaiber, Adviser Sathya Gopalakrishnan Copyright by Jane Elizabeth Powell 2018 Abstract Since the 1960’s China’s agricultural system has gone through drastic changes. Modernization of this system necessitated adoption of key innovations, including new seed varieties, farm management practices, and the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. This thesis examines the impacts of three major transformations of China’s agricultural economy, including the Socialist Period, the Green Revolution, and the Reform Period. A production function was used to estimate the effect of different agricultural inputs, regions, and decades for China’s provincial grain production, including wheat, maize, and rice. The ordinary least squared estimates demonstrate the changes in China’s agricultural system in this period. The North China Plain’s (NCP) agricultural system was used as a case study, and demonstrated the changes in intensity of grain production from 1960-2016. Increasing chemical fertilizer use was found to be the most important change in China’s agricultural inputs, as changes in other inputs such as land, labor, and agricultural machinery were constrained. Chemical fertilizer use was found to be more effective for grain production in the NCP compared to other provinces. However, high or poorly balanced chemical fertilizer applications in this region has important environmental health consequences. This fertilizer intensive production is reinforced by Chinese farmers’ needs for ensured income and management practices introduced during the Green Revolution. China’s environmental policy has had limited success in addressing these problems. i Dedication Dedicated to my father, Kevin Charles Powell ii Acknowledgments From the East Asian Studies Center, I would like to thank my adviser Dr. Karen Mancl for her profound support of my research process, and Dr. Hongtao Yi for his help in navigating Chinese data sources. From the Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, I would like to thank Dr. H. Allen Klaiber and Dr. Sathya Gopalakrishnan for their help in developing an interdisciplinary thesis. iii Vita 2011…………………………………………………..North Baltimore High School 2015………………………………………..B.A. Asian Studies, Bowling Green State University Publications Powell, Jane. "Chinese Educational Reforms: Transition of an International Powerhouse." International ResearchScape Journal 2.1 (2015): 4. Powell, Jane. "Hiroshima’s Hibakusha: The Costs of Human Health in a Nuclear Age." International ResearchScape Journal 2.1 (2015): 1. Fields of Study Major Fields: Interdisciplinary East Asian Studies and Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics iv Table of Contents Abstract………………………………………………………………………………………….i Dedication……………………………………………………………………………………….ii Acknowledgments……………………………………………………………………………….iii Vita………………………………………………………………………………………………iv List of Tables…………………………………………………………………………………….vi List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………………vii Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………1 Chapter 1: China’s Green Revolution and the Environment…………………………………….3 The Socialist Period……………………………………………………………………...3 The Green Revolution……………………………………………………………………5 Reform Period……………………………………………………………………………7 Intensive Fertilizer Use…………………………………………………………….…….9 Environmental Impacts……………………………..……………………………………18 Policy and Local Response……………..………………………………………………..21 Chapter 2: China’s Agricultural Economy………………………………………………………32 Fertilizer, Land Use, and Efficiency……………………………………………………..32 Application Habits……………………………………………………………………….35 Long-Term Effects……………………………………………………………………….40 Methods…………………………………………………………………………………..43 Results……………………………………………………………………………………47 Discussion………………………………………………………………………………..52 Conclusions………………………………………………………………………………………70 References………………………………………………………………………………………..75 Appendix: Tables and Figures……………….….….….….….….………………………………81 v List of Tables Table 1: Categorization of Province Areas in (Cho, Chen, Yen, and English, 2007, p. 145)…...81 Table 2: Regressions of Grain Production (Grain Weight) on Agricultural Inputs and Conditions in China, 1960-2016……………………………………………………………………………..82 Table 3: Regression of Grain Production (Grain Weight) on Agricultural Inputs and Conditions in China, With and Without Provincial and Decade Variables, 1960-2016……………………..84 vi List of Figures Figure 1: Average Chemical Fertilizer Consumption per Chinese Province (10,000 metric tons), 1960-2015………………………………………………………………………………………..86 Figure 2: China Average Provincial Grain Production (10,000 metric tons)…………………... 87 Figure 3: Percent NCP Grain Production of National Grain Production Based on Decade Averages…………………………………………………………………………………………88 Figure 4: Grain Sown Area (1,000 hectares) by Decade Average………………………………89 vii Introduction In December of 2017, an article title the Chinese newspaper, The People’s Daily, announced “no increase in chemical fertilizer and agricultural chemicals in China” (我国化肥农药使用量零增长). The article noted that since 2015, according to a news briefing from the Ministry of Agriculture, chemical fertilizer use has not increased, and chemical pesticide use nationally was also reduced (Chang Q. , 2017). The significance of this announcement lies in the complicated transformations that China’s agricultural system has gone through since the communist revolution. In the early 1950’s, China’s agricultural system was characterized by outdated methods and severely limited in the use of modern technologies. Modern agricultural innovations, such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and farm machinery were virtually non- existent. By the 1980’s, with the adoption of key innovations, China’s agriculture had begun to develop into a modern system. China’s rapid agricultural development relied on three major transformations of the agricultural economy. The first was the communist government’s restructuring of the agricultural system, and promotion of intensification through scientific farming during the socialist period. Second, was the introduction of new seed varieties, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides of the Green Revolution. Third, was market liberalization and increased farmer autonomy in the Reform Period. Through these changes, attitudes about agriculture have shifted, so that high production was prioritized over environmental health. In recent decades the high applications of chemical fertilizers shows increasing concern that it poses risks to environmental and human safety, contaminating soil and water supplies. 1 The North China Plain presents an excellent example of the effects of these transformations, both economically and environmentally. The intense production of wheat and maize in this region demonstrates the major changes in China’s agricultural economy. Intensive fertilizer application in this region, tied to lessons learned during the Green Revolution, demonstrated the changing attitudes towards agriculture’s relationship with nature. Reaching the Ministry of Agriculture’s goals of reducing agricultural chemicals depends on understanding the long-term effects of these major transformations. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to explore fertilizer use in the North China Plain, and to analyze the impacts of fertilizer use on the environment and agricultural economy. 2 Chapter 1: China’s Green Revolution and the Environment The People’s Republic of China began promoting intense agricultural development in the 1950’s. At the same time, an international development program, called the Green Revolution, was underway. The program was designed to transfer modern agricultural knowledge, practices, and materials to agricultural systems in less developed nations (Parayil, 2001, p. 971). By the 1960’s and 1970’s, China’s agriculture was impacted by the Green Revolution, but the strongest effects were not seen until the 1980’s One of the most important of these practices was chemical fertilizer use, a critical component of adopting the Green Revolution as a package. Farmers quickly learned that increasing fertilizer applications, in combination with other Green Revolution techniques and materials, could guarantee larger yields. These other key technologies included high-yield seeds, chemical pesticides, agricultural machinery, and improved irrigation (Parayil, 2001, p. 975). However, these improvements come at a cost, and intensive chemical fertilizer use has contributed to the pollution problems of China today. The Socialist Period One of the unique aspects of China’s Green Revolution was that its introduction coincided with the Socialist Period, from the 1950’s to late 1970’s. Unlike the agricultural sectors of many other Green Revolution nations, such as in India or Mexico, that were left to “fend for itself” (Parayil, 2001, p. 975), much of the research showed that The People’s Republic of China was highly involved in the control of the agricultural sector. However, this period suffered from structural problems, which despite good intentions, contributed to an ineffective system. 3 During this period,

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