FX & FI Strategy
Northern Lights Rate path Bonanza Nordea Research, 24 June 2014 Editors Steen V. Grøndahl Senior Director Sweden – Riksbank under immense pressure +45 3333 14 53 The Swedish economy is booming, but inflation targeting credibility will [email protected] rd force the Riksbank to cut the repo rate by 25 bps on 3 of July. Also, the Mikael Sarwe Riksbank’s repo rate forecast, see chart below, is increasingly looking like Director something out of a fairy tale. A substantial downward revision should occur, +46 8 614 99 09 [email protected] which markets already are speculating on. We expect SEK weakness to continue into the meeting, but see scope for some bounce thereafter. Norway – Norges Bank destroyed NOK
A very weak survey of the oil companies’ investment plans and lowered foreign policy rate expectations convinced Norges Bank to slash its rate path last week. No hike until well into 2016 and a 25-30% probability for a rate cut before that. EURNOK moved from 8.12 to 8.35, which we, despite downside risks to Norges Bank’s economic forecasts, believe is overdone.
Denmark – back in the comfort zone
The tightening of the Danish monetary policy relative to the ECB has widened money market spreads between Denmark and the Euro zone significantly. This has in turn triggered a strengthening of the DKK against the EUR so it is now again trading below the central parity.
Finland – rays of light
The underperformance of Finnish bonds reached new lengths this month, when 5-year bonds briefly traded above France. But a new government and slightly better data means that the overall picture is starting to improve.
Wake up Sveriges Riksbank – your path is not credible!
3.00 NO policy rate + NB forecast 3.00 SE policy rate + RIX forecast
2.50 ECB refi rate + market fwds 2.50
2.00 2.00 Contents 1.50 1.50 Overview…………………………………..2 Sweden ...... 3 1.00 1.00 Norway ...... 6 Denmark ...... 9 0.50 0.50 Finland…………………………11
0.00 0.00 Jan 10 May 11 Sep 12 Feb 14 Jun 15 Nov 16 Source:Riksbank, ECB, Norges Bank, Ecowin
Last line a
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Northern Lights
Overview: The Rate Path Steamroller Most of us probably agree that there is no particular need for any policy rate cuts in Sweden or Norway from an economic or business cycle perspective. Mikael Sarwe That said, Norges Bank nevertheless decided to slash its rate path last week Director and include a 25-30% chance of a rate cut on the back of lower oil industry +46 8 614 9909 investment plans and lower foreign policy rate expectations. At the same [email protected] time the Riksbank is widely expected to cut the repo rate by 25 bps on 3rd of Gaute Langeland July and probably lower the rate path substantially further out to increase the Chief Analyst inflation targeting credibility. Another way of looking at it is that in a +47 22 48 53 91 [email protected] disinflationary world, strict inflation targeting central banks as ours cannot afford the additional burden of currency induced imported deflation. ECB in this sense forces out the Nordic rate path steamrollers. Strict inflation targeting central banks can’t afford Norges Bank destroyed NOK. EURNOK went from 8.12 early last week to the additional burden of a 8.35. We think the move is overdone. Negative deposit rates in ECB meant stronger currency less than a, what we know from history, volatile and unreliable rate forecast from Norges Bank: the markets’ perception could change. Also SEK was dragged down; guilt by association. SEK weakness should continue into the Riksbank meeting, and we do expect a “dovish” cut. But increased hedging interests seen north of EURSEK 9.10 and a swing from negative to positive economic surprises should help SEK for a brief period after that. However, the SEK case is not a slam dunk, since there could be some political noise around the September election and rate cut expectations could re-emerge in the autumn. In fixed income space, Finland has underperformed this month. We stick to a somewhat negative stance but feel that Finland fundamentally is a buy if we reach levels above France. Also, the new Finnish government is a ray of Less negative on Finland light. Furthermore, with Norwegian and probably Swedish rate paths being lowered substantially – possibly a sign that it is growing harder and harder to deviate too much from ECB – then longer dated bonds continue to look attractive compared with core Europe.
Chart 1. NOKSEK rollercoaster continues Chart 2. Spread value remains in longer-dated bonds
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Northern Lights
Sweden – Full throttle
Riksbank caught in a vice Torjörn Isaksson Chief Analyst The Swedish economy has performed well over the past year and the outlook +46 8 614 8859 is favourable. Household consumption is increasing rapidly, house prices [email protected] and employment are also picking up fast and construction investment is
booming. Nonetheless, the Riksbank is still in an easing mode. The reason is that the bank is caught in a vice between too low inflation and an increasingly expansionary monetary policy from the ECB. As the Swedish FSA has been given the main mandate in respect of financial stability and macroprudential policies, the Riksbank can, or is forced, to focus on the low inflation. A rate cut in July a done deal The main event in the coming weeks is no doubt the Riksbank’s monetary policy meeting Wednesday 2nd of July (announcement 3rd of July). We consider a rate cut by 25bp to 0.50% to be a done deal.
The rate path the focal The focal point will be the rate path that looks set to be revised down both point short term and long term. The Riksbank’s rate path deviates sharply from the ECB’s monetary policy signals but also from Norges Bank’s rate path and market pricing. In the April report, the Riksbank’s rate path ended at 2.65% in Q1 2017. A downward revision towards 2% is not unreasonable. Inflation remains in the spot light May retail sales and trade balance are out 27 June. We expect retail sales to correct downwards after the upsurge in the previous months while exports CPIF at 0.5% y/y in June? should pick up. The most important key figure in the coming weeks is inflation data for June (10 July). Our preliminary call for June CPI is -0.1% m/m while we see CPIF at 0.5% y/y, 0.2% point below the Riksbank’s view.
Chart 3. Core inflation below the Riksbank’s view Chart 4. Exports to pick up
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Northern Lights
Swedish Rates: Prepare for a dovish cut
rd Fredrik Floric There is one key event left in Sweden, the 3 July Riksbank rate Chief Analyst announcement, before heading into the typical July summer lull. The main +46 8 614 82 15 [email protected] happenings since the previous decision in April can be summarized by; inflation surprising somewhat on the downside again, ECB having cemented low-for-long further, and most recently, Norges Bank being much softer than unanimously expected. These are the key issues the Riksbank needs to tackle, and from a strategy perspective it looks lined up for a dovish message. Indeed, we expect the bank to cut by 25bps, but in order to re-gain credibility, a sharp adjustment lower of the rate path is also necessary. The easiest way to illustrate the need for such a revision is to compare the current rate forecast with the messages by ECB and Norges Bank, central banks that are highly central for the policy setting. As chart 5 shows, the Riksbank base-line scenario is now for an unprecedented decoupling vis-à- vis ECB, to levels that haven’t been seen previously, even with inflation well above the 2% target. On a similar note, chart 6 shows that the relationship Rate path could be revised with Norges Bank looks equally, if not more, obsolete. This simply tells us lower by as much as 80- that, besides the much anticipated rate cut, the bank also needs to revise the 100bps, which would be a very dovish signal… rate forecast substantially lower and likely also pencil in a near-term easing bias. Our macro team sees a downward revision of about 65 bps as likely. But given that the inflation targeting credibility has been severely questioned, from a strategy standpoint, there is scope for an even larger downward revision in the magnitude of 80-100bps for 2015-16, which would be a very dovish signal. In markets, such a message would likely trigger further speculation of another move down towards 0.25%, but it will indeed also be seen as an encouraging fact for front-end receivers against euro rates. It will cement the very front-end further and isolate it against a move higher in global yields over the summer, leaving the curve even more directional to longer tenors than before. As such, steepeners in Sweden could be an attractive pick for those anticipating a weaker bond climate globally over the summer. In this perspective, the 5yr part of the curve should prove most fragile, with 2yr2yr forward rates at round all-time lows (just like EUR) and yield curve convexity fully decoupled with the likes of USD and GBP markets.
Chart 5. Riksbank vis-à-vis ECB Chart 6. Riksbank vis-à-vis Norges Bank
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Northern Lights
EURSEK: Guilt by association
Mikael Sarwe We have seen it before over the last year or so; how a big EURNOK move Director triggered by the Norwegian part translates into a similar EURSEK move. +46 8 614 99 09 [email protected] Last week it was Norges Bank that surprisingly slashed its rate path dragging down first the NOK and then the SEK – central bank guilt by association Henrik Unell ahead of the Riksbank meeting in early July. Combine this with the very thin Chief Analyst +46 8 534 910 97 liquidity over the midsummer holiday and the effect became an easy SEK [email protected] kill where EURSEK briefly almost touched 9.17, the strongest level since May 2012. Where to from here? Three factors have been driving EURSEK since late 2008 - relative central bank expectations/the 2-year spread, Swedish data surprises and general risk on/off. During 2014, 2 out of 3 of these have spelled a weaker SEK. The 2- year spread vs Germany has gone from 75 to 52 bps. Both the Swedish economic and inflation surprise index have basically been the weakest in the Both the Swedish economic western world. The only SEK-friend has been a buoyant stock market. and inflation surprise index have been the weakest in the Currently the FX market smells blood with technical levels broken, the west so far in 2014. stronger EURSEK trend firmly in place and growing speculation that the Riksbank will lower the rate path substantially (Nordea’s forecast) and even might need to deliver more than one rate cut (not Nordea’s forecast). However, should we learn something from how the SEK has traded the last couple of years we should probably not try to go with this story at this point. First, there has so far in 2014 been a quite solid interest from Swedish export companies to hedge their exposure at EURSEK north of 9.10 and with USDSEK at 6.70 this also looks interesting. The budgets of these companies are calculated on much stronger SEK levels than todays. Second, the There has been a quite Swedish economic surprise index is at a very negative level and our solid interest amongst economic forecasts indicate that it should swing into positive territory. Chart Swedish export companies 7 clearly shows that such moves in the past have meant a stronger SEK. to hedge when EURSEK Third, the ECB seems quite sincere in its attempt to halt and possibly reverse has been north of 9.10 the previous trend towards a stronger EUR. Do we want to fight the ECB? Fourth, the EURSEK is starting to look high both in a long-term structural way (8.50 fair value) and in a short-term financial market way (8.85 fair value), see “Sweden & the SEK” published tomorrow on Nordea Nexus. The last time the Riksbank cut the repo rate, December 2013, the SEK weakened into the meeting and then strengthened on better data after. It looks like there is a repeat on the cards for the July 2014 meeting.
Chart 7. Data surprises guide the SEK Chart 8. A repeat of December 2013 on the cards?
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Northern Lights
Norway – downside risk to growth
Erik Bruce Norges Bank presented a much lower interest rate forecast than expected in Analyst its last MPR. Not only was the first hike postponed to well into 2016, the +47 2248 4449 [email protected] rate forecast implies a 25-30% chance of a cut before the March 2015 meeting. One of the reasons for the lower rate path was the very weak Q2 survey of the oil companies investment plans. By giving a rate cut a 25 -30% chance Norges Bank is signalling that minor downside news could be enough to trigger a rate cut. Still, with marginally weaker news Norges Bank could at the next meeting lower the rate path somewhat giving a rate cut 50% chance and postponing the first hike. That was what it did between the March and June meeting last year. Despite the dovish rate path we see the risk for downside news on Norges Much lower rate path from Bank’s outlook for growth the coming months as rather high. Norges Bank Norges Bank than expected. has assumed that the strong rebound in private consumption in Q1 was the Partly due to weaker outlook for oil related industries. start of a new trend and forecast similar growth (0.8% q/q) through the rest of the year. Its forecast for mainland investment also seems to be on the strong side. Last but not least, Norges Bank forecast for oil investment implies a rather strong upward revision to the oils company’s investment plans in the coming oil investment surveys. The Q3 oil investment survey Risk to Norges Bank’s out September 2nd could give some indications of whether this is right, but growth forecast is on the we must probably await the Q4 survey to get a more definitive answer. downside. But if news is Even if we believe that the risk for downside news on growth is rather high weak enough to bring rate we see the chance of a rate cut as rather small. NOK weakened significantly cut on the agenda weaker NOK will prevent an actual after the June meeting and is currently nearly 2% weaker than forecasted cut (Q3 average). That will lift the coming September rate path quit significantly if it last and news on growth should be very weak to offset that. The NOK will most likely move somewhat stronger looking ahead (see NOK chapter), but if the economic news is weak enough to bring rate cut on agenda NOK will probably weaken again. The main downside risk to rates in Norway is ECB. If we see a general euro weakening NOK could strengthen a lot. In the case of a significant NOK strengthening Norges Bank could cut rates.
Chart 9. Oil companies planning for lower investment Chart 10. The market still somewhat below Norges Bank
Source: Nordea Markets and Bloomberg
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Northern Lights
Norwegian Rates: Go for steeper FRA curve
Gaute Langeland Norges Bank was surprisingly dovish at the meeting last week. They opened Chief Analyst the door for a cut later this year. Although this is not the base case it +47 22 48 53 91 [email protected] indicates that the risk for the policy rate is skewed to the downside and that a hike is a long way off.
Central bank puts large The main surprise was the emphasis the central bank put on weak forecasts emphasis on weak forecasts for investments in the petroleum sector next year since these forecasts are subject to large revisions. This hugely important sector is definitely no longer the major growth engine it was in the years prior to 2013, but it was surprising that the central bank already now pencilled in a 10% drop for 2015 given the large revisions these forecasts are subject to. A possible rate cut is some way off so the very front end of the curve is Little room for further anchored by the current policy rate. This meant that the 5yr sector sharply outperformance of the 5yr outperformed the rest of the curve as rates fell on the new rate path. The caused by low 2s5s10s butterfly front end of the curve flattened while the back end of the curve steepened. The 2s5s10s butterfly is now so low that the 5yr sector has little room for further outperformance (see chart 11). The 2s5s10s butterfly has even fallen relative to the European equivalent. Given the level of the fly, it seems interesting to position for a move higher. However, carrry for paying 5yr vs the wings is prohibitively expensive at approx 25bp/yr so investors need to look for more carry efficient alternatives. From chart 11, it is obvious that the main move behind the richening of the 5yr has been a flattening of the front end of the curve, not a steepening of the back end. As such, steepeners in the front end attractive.
Significant flattened FRA The FRA stip has flattened significantly over the past months. It should of stip over the past months course steepen on a move higher in rates, but if we go far enough out on the strip it also has the potential to steepen on a move lower in rates if this happens in conjunction with (firm expectations of) a rate cut. Given that the calendar spreads in the reds are close to multi year lows and roll is low, steepeners here stands out as attractive. We like the Jun15/Dec15 steepener (4th vs 6th contract) at 6bp.
Chart 11: 5yr sector has outperformed sharply Chart 12: We like steepeners in the red FRAs
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Northern Lights
EURNOK: Rising from the debris of the Olsen Storm
Ole Håkon Eek-Nielsen Norges Bank destroyed NOK with their rate message Thursday last week. Chief Analyst The emphasis being put to the forecast of the central bank is quite close to +47 2248 7869 [email protected] amazing. Norges Bank is by far the most important driver of NOK. The rally started with the dovish rate path in March last year when we were trading 7.40. The sum of currency movement in the weeks following Norges Bank meetings is actually larger than 90 big figures we have in terms of the net change from 7.40 to 8.30. Also worth mentioning; EURNOK has in all the cases of a dovish message from Norges Bank come down almost as much as it increased. This time around there is one feature that is quite different from the episodes of dovish Norges Bank last year; neither risk reversals nor volatilities in EURNOK have rallied. Implied volatility normally increases both with the interest for buying protection from something looking surprisingly nasty Norges Bank gave more and from the fact that increased realized volatility makes the option positions upside in a market already more expensive to hedge. The reason could of course be that market makers trading with bid tone. were long vega before the meeting. Another explanation could be the flow picture. There were quite large redemptions in Norwegian investments (incl dividends from Norwegian equities) on foreign investors’ hands the last couple of weeks. In Nordea we have only seen this much outflow during 20 days to speculative accounts (foreign banks) once since the financial crisis. Only ¼ of it was on the day of the central bank meeting. Most of the rest could be associated with the dates of redemptions. In other words; Norges Bank gave more upside to EURNOK in a market with heavy right hand side interests. This is now behind us. Looking at the NOK case going forward one should bear in mind that the alternative might not be highly attractive either. Negative deposit rates in ECB left less impression than a rate forecast from Norges Bank; that could turn. In todays’ risk willing environment carry trades could keep performing NOK is the weakest in general. It seems interesting that NOK is the weakest currency against currency against EUR, but EUR, while having the third highest carry-to-risk in the G10 space. it has the third highest carry-to-risk in the G10 With low volatilities and high EURNOK it makes sense looking at buying space. put-options. If the direction is wrong, implied volatility should pick up and the vega could at least partly offset the delta in such position.
Chart 13. Heavy outflows also before Norges Bank Chart 14. NOK is weak despite high carry-to-risk
1.00 EURNOK 0.75
0.50 EURJPY 0.25 EURUSD
Stdev to 10Stdev y average to EURCAD 0.00 EURGBP
-0.25 EURSEK
-0.50 EURAUD
-0.75
-1.00
-1.25 EURCHF EURNZD -1.50 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 Source: Bloomberg Carry to risk (2y ir-dif /3m impl vol)
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Northern Lights
Denmark – back in the comfort zone Jan Størup Nielsen Two rate hikes in less than two months Senior analyst +45 3333 3171 A continued weakening of the DKK vs the EUR has over the past two [email protected] months triggered a strong reaction from the Danish central bank. In April the
central bank intervened for more than DKK 20bn and made an independent rate hike of 15bp of the deposit rate. This move was followed by an implicit rate hike on 5 June when the Danish central bank kept its monetary policy unchanged while the ECB cut rates. The opposite movements mean that the Danish central bank deposit rates are now again back in positive territory while the ECB has adopted negative deposit rates. EUR/DKK is again below the central parity
Widened money market The tightening of the Danish monetary policy relative to the ECB has spreads between Denmark widened money market spreads between Denmark and the Euro zone and the Euro zone significantly. This has in turn triggered a strengthening of the DKK against the EUR so it is now again trading below the central parity. In our main scenario we expect the ECB to remain on hold for a long period to come as higher growth and a slow upward trend in inflation will keep it on Unchanged monetary the sideline. In this scenario we do not expect the Danish central bank to do policy from the central anything, as a stabilization of EUR/DKK just around 7.455 is right in the bank for the rest of the middle of its comfort zone. Thus, we forecast an unchanged monetary policy year from the central bank for the rest of the year. In 2015 we expect the Danish central bank to continue its gradual normalization process of the monetary policy, taking the spread between the lending rates to 25 bp. Normalization will continue If the ECB engages in another big round of monetary policy easing over the coming months – either by cutting rates or by additional liquidity measures Alternatives scenarios that will put additional downward pressure on the short-term money market rates in the Euro zone, we expect the Danish central bank will be forced to (at least partially) follow the ECB lower to avoid excessive widening of the DKK-EUR rate differential. This would at the same time result in an unwelcome reintroduction of negative deposit rates, probably with a renewed subsequent widening of current account deposits.
Chart 15. Deposit rates Chart 16. EUR/DKK and central bank intervention
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Northern Lights
Danish rates: Denmark after the cut – has the dust settled?
While the effect on EURDKK was somewhat muted in the wake of the Niels Blixenkrone relatively large 15bps hike from Nationalbanken in April, we have seen a Chief Analyst substantial appreciation of DKK in the wake of the ECB cut in early June. +45 3333 1457 [email protected] The two relative hikes have been accompanied with a stark widening of the fixing-spread. We even saw increasing Cibor fixings after the ECB cut – as the market had factored in some possibility that Nationalbanken would follow suit. It is worth noting that the move in relative rates has not been enough to pull FX fwds into positive territory due to a still high (and stable) Danish bonds have taken a FX basis. This means that EUR based investors rolling FX swaps are still beating in the aftermath of able to secure a positive FX related contribution of some 10bps on top of Nationalbanken’s hike and their DKK bonds. 6-9m FX swaps look the best. On the xCcy basis curve Draghi’s cut. DKK basis has actually become further negative lately while bases on most other currencies has widened against EUR.
We eye a buying opportunity: Further out the curve we have seen a waning demand for 10y DKK bonds in combination with efforts from the Nationalbanken to build liquidity in the new DGB25. On that note, the Nationalbanken has just revised the target up from DKK 75 to 100bn for 2014 (proceeds of DKK 58,1bn have been Substantial issuance in the ensured YTD). Chart 17 suggests that IRS is still the cheapest way of getting DKK 10y segment in Danish exposure, but after the recent widening cash based investors can now combination with semi-core performance leaves buy the AAA rated DGBs at a yield pick-up of some 16 bps to Germany – Denmark an attractive which begins to look like an attractive alternative to other semi-core markets alternative at current levels (even excluding xCcy basis) cf. chart 18. We still favour being long Denmark through IRS, but see the DGB23/25 as a top picks on the Danish curve. They offer the best roll and carry, and the issuance premium in the DGB25 looks fair. The stronger DKK has wiped the slate clean in terms of more hikes and even led to discussions of a Danish cut somewhere down the road. It might be too soon to claim that Denmark has weathered the storm – but we believe it is time to do the first clip now…
Chart 17. DGB, DBR, DKK IRS and EUR IRS Chart 18. Yield pick-up to Germany DK and peers
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Northern Lights
Finland – Rays of Light
Jan von Gerich 5-year spreads trading briefly above France Chief Analyst – Fixed Income Global Strategy The underperformance of Finnish bonds reached new lengths earlier this +358 9 165 59937 month, when 5-year bonds were briefly trading above France. Finnish @JanVonGerich [email protected] spreads have since snapped back a bit. We continue to see risks to Finnish bonds, but are gradually also seeing some rays of light. The forming of a new government has decreased political uncertainty, while at least some economic data is raising hopes Finland could finally join the recovery (see more below). Still generally negative on Although we retain a somewhat negative stance on Finnish bonds, we are Finnish bonds, but increasingly also looking for interesting opportunities on the Finnish curve. increasingly looking for The 5-7-year part of the curve looks interesting. We would definitely prefer opportunities on the Finnish bonds over French ones, if offered at a pick-up again. After all, 10- curve. year French bonds offer more than 10bp pick-up over Finnish ones. Only limited near-term stimulus – industrial orders picked up New government New Prime Minister Stubb revealed his Growth and Employment programme to lift debt-to- programme last week. Taking into consideration that the remaining term of GDP marginally. the new government is less than a year, only so much can be done. Still, the programme looks modestly positive, though far from ambitious. The lowest income tax brackets will be adjusted for inflation next year, amounting to modest tax cuts compared to earlier plans, while infrastructure investments were increased, but only from 2016. The earlier talks of larger scale stimulus measures thus did not materialize. More importantly, the new government committed to implementing the structural reforms proposed by the old government, hopefully making the Finnish economy a bit more flexible. The new measures are expected to lift the debt-to-GDP ratio by only 0.4%- points in 2018, but the debt-to-GDP ratio is now set to top only in 2018, keeping the credit rating under pressure. Given the uncertain growth outlook, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio back to a downtrend requires a lot of work that needs to be increasingly done on the spending side of public finances. Some economic data Most economic data remain depressed, but industrial orders appear to have started to pick up. started to rise, while confidence has shown signs of bottoming. We are thus confident that GDP will start rising again in the latter half of the year.
Chart 19. Finnish bonds briefly trading above France Chart 20. Recent Finnish order data encouraging
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Northern Lights
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