MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook January to June 2015
Severe floods will delay seasonal harvests in affected areas of the northern and central region
KEY MESSAGES
Households directly impacted by the flooding are likely to face Stressed acute Current acute food security outcomes, food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 2) in the central and northern areas of January 2015. the country that received extremely heavy rainfall. Households that have been displaced by the flooding along the lower Licungo and Zambezi river basins are living in temporary accommodation centers and are only able to meet their minimal food requirements through humanitarian assistance.
While a comprehensive needs assessment is forthcoming by the joint Government and Humanitarian Country Team (HTC), the severity and high risk of further flooding in the central and northern river basins, suggests that food and non-food interventions will be required to avert worsening food security outcomes and to ensure the recovery of livelihoods among households in these areas.
As the lean season progresses the food security conditions throughout parts of the country not impacted by flooding are stable. For this time of the year more households than usual are still consuming food stocks from their 2013/14 above-average production.
From January to June most of the households across the country will face Source: FEWS NET Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) while poor households displaced This map represents acute food insecurity by flooding within the Licungo and Zambezi river basins are expected to be outcomes relevant for emergency decision- making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In the typically grain deficit areas of the semi-arid and insecurity. Visit here for more on this scale. interior zone, the majority of households are expected to continue consuming their food reserves from the previous season, so acute food insecurity will remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1).
NATIONAL OVERVIEW
Current Situation
Since the start of severe flooding due to abnormally heavy rains in early January 2015, thousands of people have been displaced and have had their livelihoods disrupted in areas along the lower Licungo, Zambezi, Messalo river basins. Some of these households that lost their houses are now living in accommodation centers and being provided assistance while others have found refuge in the homes of their relatives.
As of January 26th, the National Center of Emergency Operations (CENOE) from the National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC) was estimating that a total of 157,172 people have been impacted by this season’s floods. According to INGC/CENOE the estimated death toll is 120, a total of 12,799 houses have been destroyed, and 950 classrooms are estimated to be damaged. Additional information on the impacts of the flooding is still forthcoming.
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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook January to June 2015
Given the recent floods in the central and northern provinces and the fact that the peak of the rainfall and cyclone season continues through February, the Council of Ministers through INGC has increased the institutional alert level from Orange to Red, which fully Projected food security outcomes, activates operations by CENOE and the National Civil Protection Unit January to March 2015. (UNAPROC).
Outside the flooded areas, acute food insecurity outcomes are stable throughout most of the country. As the lean season continues more households than usual are still consuming food stocks from their 2013/14 above-average production, and are also using typical livelihood strategies for this time of the year.
Local markets have adequate food supplies. Food prices of most staple foods such as maize, rice, and cowpeas are close to the five-year average and generally affordable, allowing households that are mostly market- dependent during this time of the year to access food from local markets. Normally food prices are expected to peak in February. However, this year due to the late start of the season in most of the country, the peak period may extend until March.
During the current rainfall season (2014/15), the rain started in late Source: FEWS NET December instead of October/November in parts of the southern zone, particularly in the remote interior livelihood zones of Gaza and Inhambane. Projected food security outcomes, In the central and northern regions the rains were delayed by one to two April to June 2015. months. An exception is Maputo province where rains started on time.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MASA), despite the floods, to date the prospects for the 2014/15 agricultural season are good. Crops appear in various states of development and are progressing well. In the southern and central zone the level of planting was estimated to be 90 percent of planned area, while in the north by early January widespread rains had covered the whole region and the planting level was estimated to be 80 percent of planned.
Assumptions
The Food Security Outlook for January to June 2015 is based on the following national-level assumptions:
Agroclimatology
Source: FEWS NET Although rainfall this season started late and had a poor start, deficits This map represents acute food insecurity observed in the first half of the season were largely neutralized by the rains outcomes relevant for emergency decision- that occurred in December and January. The CPC/IRI Consensus Probabilistic making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit here for more on this scale ENSO forecast suggests a gradual weakening of El Niño conditions while neutral conditions start setting in during the January to April period. Based on the current climate mode, the updated forecast by the National Institute of Meteorology indicates that between January and March the southern region has an increased chance of receiving near-normal to below-normal rainfall, while the rest of the country (including the productive areas in the central and northern zones) has an increased chance of receiving near-normal to above-normal rainfall.
There is still the risk of flooding and cyclones since the peak of the season is in February. Until April, cyclone events or heavy winds are possible along the coastal areas, mainly between Nampula and Inhambane Provinces. While moderate to severe localized flooding are already occurring there is the possibility of more flooding in the central and northern
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river basins. The central river basins, including the Zambezi and Licungo and some northern rivers like the Messalo and Lugenda, have already exceeded the alert level. Additional flooding may delay the recovering process of the affected people.
Markets and Trade
Maize supplies in most markets and at the household level are expected to remain adequate for this time of the year through March. Supply levels will improve when harvests are available during the second half of the outlook period (April- June). In the majority of areas that experienced a delayed start of season, most households will continue to consume their own crop production from last season and will likely be minimally dependent on markets.
Technical analysis suggests that between January and March the actual maize price trends will continue to be 25-30 percent lower than the five-year average and will decrease after April when the harvest of new crops arrives. Overall, maize grain prices will remain closer to the five-year average and similar to last year’s prices in most markets throughout the outlook period.
Maize prices across the country are expected to continue to follow seasonal trends. Between January and June, the flow of food commodities will continue to follow normal patterns. However, between January and March, further flooding and continued heavy rains may interrupt some access roads and this could cause a temporary disruption of some markets. This disruption could affect household food access by pushing up price levels.
Normal and stable rice and cowpea prices patterns are expected throughout the outlook period.
Main Season Production
Crops were planted late due to the late start of season in the southern and central zones which will delay the availability of the green harvest and will prolong market dependency for the majority of poor households.
Recent crop losses due to flooding was localized and the seasonal harvest in these areas is expected to be delayed by 1- 2 months (May/June), depending on how successful replanting will be after the floods. In areas of the country that are likely to experience rainfall deficits, reduced yields are possible. Seasonal prospects are still favorable in the areas situated away from shocks.
Based on weather forecasts for the January to March period, conditions should allow for the replanting of crops. Reduced rainfall is expected from April to June and will benefit the maturing of seasonal crops.
Agricultural Labor
Because of the current level of farming activities (including replanting and weeding), the agriculture labor opportunities are at near normal levels for this time of the year and are expected to continue to behave like this between January and March in areas not affected by flooding. From April to June, agriculture labor opportunities will be linked to harvest activities throughout the country.
Replanting activities in the flood affected areas should spur agricultural labor opportunities between May and June.
Humanitarian Assistance
Emergency food assistance needs are expected throughout the outlook period in the flood affected districts of Licungo, Zambezi, and other flooded basin areas. These needs will likely be covered by the Government of Mozambique and the HTC. Input and seeds distribution will also be provided timely to enable replanting where conditions permit.
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Most Likely Food Security Outcomes
Countrywide, the levels of acute food insecurity will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) for the majority of the rural poor households between January and February. This will be possible due to ongoing satisfactory cropping season in the bulk of the country, which will provide green foods and the main season harvest during the outlook period. In the southern region, particularly in Maputo and the coastal areas of Gaza and Inhambane Provinces, the green harvest is expected to occur in February. In the interior of Gaza and Inhambane, the green harvest is expected to take place a little after March. In much of the central and northern zones the harvest is expected in April and May, respectively. The above-average carry-over stocks from the previous agriculture season, purchases from local markets, and relatively average prices will enable food access for the majority of households before green foods become available. Additionally, the poor and very poor households in these areas will continue relying on a range of typical livelihood and coping strategies. Thus, households will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between January and March. From April to June, as the green foods and crops from the main harvest start to gradually become available, access to food for the majority of poor households will improve and the Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is expected.
Some households in the districts impacted by flooding will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes from January to June. Since the preliminary estimates of the people affected is less than 20 percent of each total district population the acute food insecurity for area classification is Minimal (Phase 1). Please refer to the areas of concern section for more details about the flood affected areas.
AREAS OF FOCUS
Flood affected areas: Lower Licungo basin, lower Zambezi basin, and parts of the central and northern zones
Current Situation
Since early January unusually heavy rains fell over central and northern Mozambique triggering severe flooding along rivers and in flood plains located near the Licungo and Zambezi basins. The flooding has caused dozens of deaths, displaced entire communities, damaged households, infrastructure, crops, and increased the risk of waterborne diseases. Flooding has impacted transportation in these areas by cutting-off the National Road (N1) around Mocuba district that links the central region of the country to the northern region. Secondary roads and bridges have also been destroyed, which is impeding the movement of people and goods. A major impact of the flooding has been the interruption of power supply to large parts of central and northern regions due to damage to the main electricity transmission line.
Temporary accommodation sites have been established and relief operations are underway. Coordination between the Government and its partners is ongoing. The movement of food supplies and other goods have been affected due to some impassable roads. However, additional resources are still needed for response efforts in the most severely affected area, the Zambézia Province in the Licungo basin. According to INGC/CENOE as off January 28th a total of 124,381 persons were affected in Zambézia Province, from which around 47,020 people are hosted in 39 accommodation centers. Preliminary findings of post-flood assessment has estimated that about 65,000 ha or five percent of the total planted area in Zambézia province was impacted by flooding and heavy rains. There is a high probability that the amount of planted area lost will increase given the fact that additional flooding could occur before the end of the current agriculture season.
Thousands of households living in the districts hit hardest by flooding, including Mocuba, Namacurra, Nicoadala, and Maganja da Costa, are facing Stressed acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 2), though preliminary estimates of people affected is less than 20 percent. Households in other districts that are moderately impacted by the floods and heavy rains, including Morrumbala and Mopeia in Zambézia Province, Mutarara, Zumbo, and Mágoe in Tete Province, Caia, Marromeu, Chemba, Nhamatanda, and Búzi in Sofala Province, Cuamba, Mecanhelas, and Metarica in Niassa Province, and Ribáue, Murrupula, Moma, and Nacala Porto in Nampula Province are also Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but this figure is also less than 20 percent of the total populations in each district, so the area classification is Minimal (IPC Phase 1).
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Assumptions
With thousands of people staying in accommodation centers, the emergency period may last for three or more months and the recovery phase will be underway by June. Priorities during the emergency and recovery phases will include: Immediate repair of hospitals, water systems and electricity supply, and seeds for post-flood planting in the affected areas. Figure 1. Districts affected by flooding (in red) along the Zambezi and Licungo basins, Local informal and formal January 2015. trade flows will continue and staple food will be imported from neighboring unaffected districts. As soon as possible, traders are expected to make up for some of the market supply shortfalls by bringing in additional foods from northern Zambézia, Tete, and Sofala provinces between January and June.
The potential for further flooding remains, especially as the rainfall season is expected to continue until April and the updated forecast from INAM indicates high probability for normal to above normal rainfall in much of the central and northern regions of the country. According to the National
Directorate of Water (DNA) Source: FEWS NET the areas of greatest flood risk, are Licungo basin in Gurue and Mocuba and Maganja da Costa districts (Nante administrative post). Other basins with moderate to high risk of flooding include the Zambezi basin in Mutarara, Caia and Marromeu districts and adjacent areas of Lúrio River and Messalo River in Miangaleua during the February-March period.
The lean season is expected to be extended and last until the green harvest in April in these areas. It is expected that a successful replanting once the water recedes will allow the main harvest to take place from May-June.
For the affected areas, these income opportunities will be disrupted as most households will be engaged in recovering their basic livelihoods or receiving food assistance while in accommodation centers.
Most Likely Food Security Outcomes
With government and partners providing inputs and seed supplies, post-flood planting will take place immediately following the recession of flood waters in order to fully take advantage of the available soil moisture. The destruction of access roads and bridges will likely result in unseasonable increases of staple food prices due to constrained access to markets and the resulting undersupply of food. With gradual reopening of some access roads and anticipating supply shortfalls, additional supplies from neighboring markets will flow into local markets but generally food prices will remain above-average and may increase. The high chance of another flood event in February and March could reduce agricultural labor opportunities and may lead to reductions in income for very poor and poor households living in flood plains. However, people may seek labor opportunities outside the flooded areas.
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With adequate supplies of inputs/seeds a good flood-recession harvest is possible in mid-2015. Typically, after the floods higher than normal yields are produced if households manage to take maximum advantage of soil moisture availability. Green foods may start to be available in May, which may improve food security for those households able to plant immediately after the recession of flood water.
Within the severely flooded districts (Mocuba, Nicoadala, Namacurra and Maganja da Costa) and moderately flooded districts, thousands of displaced households will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from January to June, however preliminary estimates of people affected is less than 20 percent, so the acute food insecurity for area classification is Minimal (Phase 1). During this period there is the chance that some households will manage to return to their homes. If this occurs they will be engaged in typical farming activities and partly accessing food from own production complemented by purchases from the markets and humanitarian assistance.
OTHER AREAS OF CONCERN Figure 2. Districts (in orange) and the Livelihood Zone (lines) affected by dryness
and erratic rainfall since January 2015. Parts of Livelihood zone 22: Southern Semiarid Cereals and Cattle (Chigubo, Mabote, and northern Chibuto and Guija districts)
Current Situation
Acute food insecurity is currently Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in these areas. Very poor and poor households are able to expand their typical livelihood strategies or employ typical coping mechanisms, while the middle and better-off are able to draw down on extra stocks or sell animals.
In contrast with the flooded areas of the country, the interior of Gaza and Inhambane Provinces have experienced erratic rainfall since the beginning of 2015.
During the first twenty days of January, much of the southern region have received less than half of the normal rainfall for the period. Most planted crops, particularly maize are currently in the vegetative to flowering stages when water requirements are high. Insufficient water supply during these critical stages may lead to reduced crop yields or at extreme conditions to total crop failure. In such dry conditions,
households will continue planting whenever rains occur as it has been Source: FEWS NET habit during the last few years.
Even if crop production happens to be poor in these areas, the impact is not likely to be felt until much later in the 2015/16 consumption year.
Most households still have seeds from their own stocks, while others are purchasing or receiving them from relatives or neighbors. So far, most crops are still in good condition. The Crop and Early Warning Unit (DCAP) from the Ministry of Agriculture is yet to carry out an official crop assessment to estimate the impacts of the erratic rainfall in parts of the southern region. Cropping activities like weeding and harvesting are providing normal levels of casual labor opportunities. Income generating livelihood strategies, including self-employment are also contributing to stabilize food security outcomes among the poorest households.
Markets are adequately supplied and staple food prices remain close or below the five-year average. The reference markets in the basin (Chokwe and Xai-Xai) are being supplied mostly by local surpluses. In the surrounding districts maize is also widely available in the local markets. The December maize price in Chókwe, for instance, was same as the five- year average and close to last year’s price. These staple food prices are favoring food access for the majority of households depending on market purchases. Emergency food assistance is not taking place in the area, however there
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is ongoing safety-net programming for the chronically ill, including elders, widows, the disabled, and households headed by children.
Although the rainfall has been erratic for the last 20 days, water availability has improved substantially in the area. This factor is extremely beneficial for households as it allows them to focus their time on activities such as farming and searching for forest products and food to sell.
Assumptions
The downscaled and more detailed forecast from the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM), indicates that during the January, February, and March, much of the southern region that includes Gaza, Inhambane, and northern Maputo Provinces has a high likelihood for the occurrence of normal to below-normal rains.
Local informal and formal maize trade flows are expected to continue to supply staple foods to local markets. The flows will originate from local areas or from central region.
Most Likely Food Security Outcomes
During the first half of the scenario period (January-March), poor and very poor households will have access to last season’s food stocks, green foods, and market purchases as their main sources of food. In addition to this cashew nuts, an important seasonal foods in the area, will provide both food and income to poor households between January and February. Availability of wild and seasonal foods (fruits, water lily seeds, baobab pulp, and other wild foods) will stabilize food access for poor households until the green harvest becomes available in late February. Between January and March households will expand the typical livelihood strategies to generate income for food and non-food expenditures. Expansion of some of these strategies includes increasing agriculture labor, intensive gathering, and sale of wild foods, grass, and the consumption of wild foods including wild roots. They will also sell building poles, firewood, and charcoal for income, while also carrying out informal labor (in exchange for food), and hunting for food. Remittances will likely increase for households who have relatives working in urban areas and in South Africa.
During the second half of the scenario period (April-June), the majority of households will be consuming food from own production and making less purchases from the market. Casual labor through land preparation, planting, and weeding for the second season will also play an important role during this period. The seasonal decrease of staple food prices will continue until June and this will improve access to food purchases. Given the assumptions made about areas of concern in this livelihood zone, poor and very poor households will not experience food deficits during this outlook period.
In this livelihood zone, poor and very poor households will face Minimal acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1) throughout the outlook period.
EVENTS THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK
Table 1. Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario.
Area Event Impact on food security outcomes Flooded areas Substantial reduction This may accelerate return of affected households to their normal of rainfall and quick livelihoods. The number of people living in the accommodation recovering of flood centers may reduce drastically since households will tend to return affected households to their homes. Southern Semiarid Cumulative rainfall Crop failure or significant reduction in crop yields will compromise Cereals and Cattle deficits that are half of food security situation during the 2015/16 consumption season, (LHZ 22) normal for the area. particularly for the very poor and poor households who may require food assistance. This dryness may also compromise the second season since the availability of residual moisture would be minimal.
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Cyclone prone areas in Major cyclone Could result in severe livelihood destruction and food insecurity, coastal Nampula and (category 2 and above) prompting a larger external response needs. Inhambane, Zambézia, and Sofala Provinces
Traders do not respond Local markets would be undersupplied, pushing food prices higher as anticipated and no than currently projected. Food deficits could increase, especially for additional food stocks poor households. flow to the deficit areas All zones Inadequate input Will prevent households from benefiting from the expected supply for post-flood favorable agroclimatic conditions for replanting following receding replanting and second flood waters. season. Inadequate Failure to respond in a timely fashion will cause poorer households humanitarian to begin employing negative coping strategies. assistance response
ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes those assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to develop scenarios estimating food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET reports the most likely scenario. Click here for more information.
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