ln cornpliance with the Canadian Privacy Legislation sorne supporting forms may have been removed from this -dissertation. While these forms may be included . in the document page count, their removal does not represent any loss of content from the dissertation. REFERENDUM: A DEAD LETTER Prospects for Self-Determination in Western Sahara Gallit Dobner Department of Political Science McGill University, Montreal March2003 A thesis submitted to McGill University in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Master' s of Arts © Gallit Dobner, 2003 National Library Bibliothèque nationale 1+1 of Canada du Canada Acquisitions and Acquisisitons et Bibliographie Services services bibliographiques 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A ON4 Ottawa ON K1A ON4 Canada Canada Your file Votre référence ISBN: 0-612-88634-4 Our file Notre référence ISBN: 0-612-88634-4 The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive licence allowing the exclusive permettant à la National Library of Canada to Bibliothèque nationale du Canada de reproduce, loan, distribute or sell reproduire, prêter, distribuer ou copies of this thesis in microform, vendre des copies de cette thèse sous paper or electronic formats. la forme de microfiche/film, de reproduction sur papier ou sur format électronique. The author retains ownership of the L'auteur conserve la propriété du copyright in this thesis. Neither the droit d'auteur qui protège cette thèse. thesis nor substantial extracts from it Ni la thèse ni des extraits substantiels may be printed or otherwise de celle-ci ne doivent être imprimés reproduced without the author's ou aturement reproduits sans son permission. autorisation. Canada Freedom is a plant alien to our part of the world. Whenever implanted, it dies ... We used to blame the colonialists, then sorne of us colonized others and the plant of freedom died over and over again. Each time it died a dreamer who inhabited his own world would try to revive it only to perish along with it.. aIl those who made the effort rode against powerful windmills with wooden swords. - Jihad al-Khazin TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ..................................................................................... i RÉSUMÉ .......................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................... iii MAP OF WESTERN SAHARA .............................................................. v INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 1 A BRIEF HISTORY: From Tribalism to Nationalism ..................................... 3 Western Sahara and Hs People ....................................................... 3 Spanish Colonization .................................................................. 5 The Liberation Strugg1e Begins ...................................................... 6 Regional Designs ....................................................................... 7 The Liberation Struggle Continues ................................................... 9 THE PRINCIPLE OF SELF-DETERMINATION: More than a Quarter ofa Century Of Failed Promises ................................................................... 10 Self-Determination as a Univers al Legal Principle ................................ 10 The Failed Application of Self-Determination in Western Sahara .............. Il Initial Support .. .............................................................. , Il The International Court ofJustice. ..... .. 13 Moroccan Occupation ........................................................ 15 OA U Involvement... ..... ... 16 UN Involvement ............................................................... 17 THE REFERENDUM AS A MOROCCAN PREROGATIVE ........................... 19 Morocco' s Stake in Western Sahara. .... .. 19 Regime Legitimacy ........................................................... , 20 Natural Resources ............................................................ 24 Extensive Investment ......................................................... 26 Regional Bargaining Power ................................................. 27 Morocco's Efforts to Obstruct a Referendum ....................................... 28 Refusai to Negotiate ........................................................... 28 Stalling the Pro cess ............................................................ 30 Advocatingfor a Political Agreement.................. .................. '" 31 Prospects ................................................................................. 33 THE REFERENDUM AS A PREJUDICED PROCESS .................................. 34 Voter Eligibility ........................................................................ 34 Voter Registration ...................................................................... 38 Voter Identification ............................... , ..................................... 38 Ceasefire Violations .................................................................... 41 Premature 'Repatriation' ............................................................... 43 UN Personnel. ..... .. 45 Moroccan Control over MINURSO Personnel ... ......................... 45 Neutrality ofthe UN in Question ............................................ 46 Prospects ................................................................................. 49 THE REFERENDUM AS AN UNENFORCEABLE INSTRUMENT .................. 50 UN Passivity ............................................................................ 50 UN Enforcement in Western Sahara ........................................ 51 UN Enforcement in East Timor and Namibia .............................. 52 Moroccan Alliances: Powerful Friends ............................................. 53 The United States .............................................................. 53 France ........................................................................... 57 Other Instrumental Allies ..................................................... 59 Polisario Alliances: Dwindling Support ............................................. 61 Aigeria .......................................................................... 61 Other Lesser Allies ............................................................ 63 Prospects ................................................................................. 65 ALTERNATIVES TO THE REFERENDUM ............................................... 65 The Status Quo ......................................................................... 66 More ofthe Same: The Benefits ............................................. 66 An Untenable Situation: The Costs ......................................... 68 A Return to Arms ....................................................................... 74 Terrorism ....................................................................... 74 Guerrilla Warfare ............................................................. 76 A Political Soluntion ................................................................... 81 A Polisario-Moroccan Compromise ... ..................................... 81 Auton()lny ............................................................... 82 AUfonomy: nU! Framework Agreement ........ 82 Er:lens'tve AUfonorny ... ..................................... 84 f)artition ............................................................... 86 A UN Imposed Resolution ................................................... 90 An Algero-Moroccan Pax .................................................... 92 Algerian-Polisario Relations ....................................... 92 Algerian-Moroccan Relations ...................................... 94 Aigerian lnterests .................................................... 95 IN CONCLUSION .............................................................................. 100 REFERENCE LIST ............................................................................. 103 ABSTRACT Western Sahara has been granted the dubious distinction of Africa's last colony. Long a victim of imperial enterprise, the territory was annexed by Morocco in 1975 just as Spain withdrew. Despite international protest affirming the Saharawi people's right to a referendum of self-determination, still the question of Western Sahara lingers, frozen in time. This paper will demonstrate that a referendum no longer offers a way forward for three reasons: it is unlikely a referendum will be held due to Morocco' s unwillingness to cooperate; if a referendum went forward, it is improbable that it would prove free and fair given Moroccan attempts to undermine the process; and if a successful referendum took place, it is unlikely the international community would be prepared to enforce Saharawi sovereignty. As such, alternatives must be sought. An examination of possible scenarios suggests limited autonomy, as a result of an Algero-Moroccan rapprochement, is Western Sahara's most likely trajectory. RÉSUMÉ Le Sabra Occidental est accordé la distinction douteuse d'être la dernière colonie en Afrique. Victime de longue date de l'entreprise coloniale, le territoire a été annexé par le Maroc en 1975, aussitôt que l'Espagne s'était retirée. Malgré la contestation internationale affirmant le droit du peuple sahraoui à un référendum d'autodétermination, la question du Sabra Occidental persiste, comme si elle était gelée dans l'histoire. Cette exposition démontrera qu'un