The-Scenarios-Question
THE SCENARIOS QUESTION by Andrew Curry Andrew Curry, the cenarios work is one of the distinctive Travelled,” Wendy Schultz and I explored four: can be produced by any and all of the specific editor of this book, practices of futures. In the minds of many the double uncertainty method, popularized by methods used by futurists.” has led scores of it is associated strongly with the 2x2 ‘double Peter Schwartz’ book, The Art of the Long View; The Art of the Long View scenarios projects S uncertainty’ matrix, in which ‘important’ future two methods used by the University of Hawai’i using a range of This leaves us still with the question of why, uncertainties are compressed into two significant futures school, Futures Archetypes and Manoa; different approaches, when there are so many ways of producing themes of uncertainty, and a set of scenarios and Causal Layered Analysis, invented by Sohail and has written about scenarios, the double uncertainty method has developed by exploring the worlds which emerge Inayatullah, himself a Hawai’i alumnus. And scenarios methods. become so dominant. The answer seems to lie in by combining the different outcomes. beyond these, the list stretches down the hall. a moment of publishing history. Peter Schwartz, However, this method wasn’t always a The French prospective school has its own scenario who had run the Shell scenarios team through dominant model, and it is worth exploring how development techniques, and Morphological much of the 1980s and had left to set up the it came to be so. Futures work is a relatively Scenarios (also known as Field Anomaly futures consultancy Global Business Network in young discipline, and hasn’t yet developed its Relaxation, or FAR) have a long history.
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