Impact of Carbon Dioxide Concentrations On

Plant Archives Vol. 19, Supplement 2, 2019 pp. 1450-1456 e-ISSN:2581-6063 (online), ISSN:0972-5210

IMPACT OF CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS ON ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER IRAQ AND SOME NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES Swma Jamalalden Al-jaf and Osama Tareq Al-Taai* Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad, Iraq *Author for correspondence: E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract

Iraq one of the most Middle East countries confronts to climate change, where it faced many environmental challenges the most important of high temperatures above the rate of the natural. The Carbon dioxide (CO 2) gas work on the absorption of part of the heat inside the atmosphere and prevent the leakage into space and this leads to increase temperature of the air and knows this phenomenon of global warming. The aim of this research is to study the effect of CO 2 to increase their concentration in the atmosphere of temperature variation. Where the data was taken from satellites recorded by the European Centre for medium range weather forecasts (ECMWF) and Giovanni reanalysis for NASA. This study choice Iraq and neighbor countries from latitude (27- 37) oN and longitude from (39-50) oE for years (2003- 2016), where we studied the behavior of CO 2 gas concentration and its relationship with air temperature variation. The result by using correlation coefficient between CO 2 and temperature we found that the relationship is positive in the northern stations, Sulamaniyah (Iraq) +0.5, Mosul (Iraq) +0.3 and weak positive in other regions, as for neighboring countries also be positive in Ahwaz (Iran) +0.5, and Batman (Turkey) +0.4 and weak positive in Jubail (KSA), Amman (Jordan), Aleppo (Syria). Keywords : Greenhouse gases, Carbon dioxide, ECMWF, Climate change, Iraq.

Introduction since the middle of the twentieth century (Hegel, 2007). while natural phenomena, such as solar eclipses and Carbon dioxide is a trace gas in the composition of the Earth's atmosphere, with an average concentration of 400 volcanoes, have a small warming effect since ages before the ppm, according to NOAA measurements on the island of industry until 1950 and the effect of small cooling thereafter (Amman, 2007), (Howden et al., 2007). The Absorbance and Mona Loa, Hawaii (NOAA, 2018), (Ewald, 2013). The Emissivity Solar Radiation by Clouds, Aerosols and some concentration of CO 2 gas varies between areas close to the Earth's surface and high areas, and its concentration varies on Atmospheric gases, for this study used data were taken from the satellites of the European Center for Meteorological a local basis between cities and rural areas, and between industrialized countries and non-industrialized countries. In Forecasts ECMWF, Specifically, the model was used (ERA- et al., addition, there is a difference in the concentration of carbon interim) (Abood 2018). The employed GIS for mapping that in both Iraq and Jordan the climate should dioxide by months of the year. In the northern half of the become drier, with reduced growing periods, shifts in Earth, the CO 2 concentration is at its peak in the spring and at its lowest level in the fall, at a repeated annual cycle. Carbon climatic zones, and higher temperatures and water requirement than currently (De Pauw et al., 2015). Today's dioxide is released continuously into the atmosphere from natural sources. About 40% of the gas emitted by volcanoes temperature is almost double that of 200 years ago. during the eruption is from carbon dioxide (Enting, 1987). It The causes of global warming are different; some is estimated that volcanoes release between 130 and 230 scientists say pollution is the main cause, while others say it million tons of CO 2 into the atmosphere each year. However, is a change in nature. There are several theories that explain CO 2 emissions from human activities are about 135 times this increase. Global surface temperature is expected to greater than that of volcanoes. The imbalance in the increase by 1.4 °C to 5.8 °C from 1990 to 2100, and the concentration of atmospheric gases especially in the world surface temperature is now 0.6 °C (Nasrallah et al., concentration of gas carbon dioxide because of the activities 2004). of human led to enclosure part of the energy in the Materials and Methods atmosphere causing alter rates of temperature of the earth's surface and this composition is known as the phenomenon of The Study Area global warming (Blackstock, 2008). Iraq is country in Western Asia spanning most of the The Global warming increase in surface temperature northwestern end of the Zagros mountain range, the eastern medium in the world with increasing the amount of carbon part of the Syrian Desert and the northern part of the Arabian dioxide, methane and other gases in the Atmosphere. These Desert. The desert is in the southwest and central provinces, gases are called greenhouse gases because they contribute to along the borders with Saudi Arabia and Jordan and the heating of the Earth's surface atmosphere, a phenomenon geographically belongs with the Arabian Peninsula. The known as global warming (Baettig et al., 2007). The increase climate of Iraq is characterized by sub-tropical, continental, in average air temperature since the middle of the 20th arid to semi-arid with dry hot summers and cooler winters. century has been observed as it continues to escalate, with The average annual temperature is varies from 8.5 ºC to 49 the surface temperature increasing by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the °C. The summer temperature range is between 16 oC to 49 last century. The International Committee on Climate Change oC, while winter temperature range is between 8.5 oC to 14 has concluded that greenhouse gases. The resulting human oC. The work was carried with the monthly mean of the years practices are responsible for most observed temperature rise (2003-2016) the CO2 and Temperature data taken from the Swma Jamalalden Al-jaf and Osama Tareq Al-Taai 1451

European center medium weather forecasts (ECMWF) Results and Discussion specifically model (ERA-interim) (Dee et al., 2011), and CO 2 Study the Behavior of Monthly Mean of CO in Study from Giovanni reanalysis for NASA (Giovanni, 2013). This 2 Stations data is taken over Iraq and neighbor countries where chosen o for this work located at the latitude SW (27, 37) N and The Fig. 2 and Fig 3 shows the monthly average of CO 2 longitude NE (39, 50) oE with spatial resolution 2*2.5 degree on the study region from January 2003 to December 2016. as shown in Fig. 1 and Table 1. The CO 2 values appear Spatial variation on most parts of Iraq and some neighboring regions with differences in spatial space Patterns for each season, and various seasonal fluctuations depend on Weather conditions and topographic. Carbon dioxide concentrations are constantly increasing due to human activities and huge quantities of fuel burned by industrial facilities, fuel stations and transport engines in transportation, as well as increasing population has a role in increasing the percentage of carbon dioxide because the human activity is the main reason Increase the proportion of the gas. Gas concentrations increase during the summer (June, July and August) during the hot months, with the highest values during the summer in June if the concentration of gas CO 2 391.3 ppm in Jordan as well as the high gas values in the northern regions (Mosul, Sulaymaniyah), In the southern stations of Basrah, as well as in Baghdad because of the low consumption of gas by plants in the summer, so the proportion of gas in the atmosphere increases because photosynthesis is of lower value. Carbon dioxide is an essential factor in the process of making Food in plants. During winter (December, January and February), carbon dioxide has less value during the cold months as the plant and tree growth season begins. And less during the spring (March, April) but begin to increase again Fig. 1: The study stations. during the month of May, the end of the spring where in the spring process photosynthesis of the plant is at its greatest Table 1: Location and Altitude for study stations from north value, where the growing season of plants and increase the to south. consumption of carbon dioxide and thus reduce the amount Altitude of gas in the atmosphere, Also during the fall (September, Longitude Latitud Stations above sea October and November), gas concentrations are relatively (oE) e ( oN) level (meter) low because of gas consumption and thus less in the Batman (Turkey) 41.16 37.87 601 atmosphere. This increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide will lead to negative results in relation to the Mosul (Iraq) 43.15 36.31 223 atmosphere of the Earth where the Earth is exposed because Aleppo (Syria) 37.17 36.23 379 of these imbalance gas concentrations, including carbon Sulamaniyah (Iraq) 45.43 35.55 882 dioxide gas to a series of climatic changes and the most important high temperatures than normal. As the CO Hadithah (Iraq) 42.35 34.13 80 2 molecules have a great ability to absorb infrared radiation Baghdad (Iraq) 44.43 33.30 34 and increase this gas, the heat gets absorbed as the gas works Amman (Jordan) 35.98 31.98 750 to absorb the heat and emits it into space and thus increases Amarah (Iraq) 47.15 31.83 10 the temperature of the atmosphere. This increase in carbon dioxide concentrations and the long-term combustion of Ahwaz (Iran) 48.66 31.33 21 fossil fuels will lead to a significant increase in the Nasriyah (Iraq) 46.26 31.02 9 temperature of the atmosphere. This increase in the CO 2 ratio Basrah (Iraq) 47.82 30.52 5 for Iraq and neighboring regions led to an imbalance in the amount of rainfall. Drought and drought caused many in the Jubail (Saudi Arabia) 49.4 28.00 7 falling rain as some of the neighboring regions suffered from floods due to the heavy rainfall. This imbalance in the Statistical Used climate system is caused by high temperatures due to the Choosing spearman (Rho) from many statistical tests high concentration of CO 2 gas as it is one of the greenhouse has been selected regression analysis .Using statistical gases and causing global warming. program SigmaPlot to figure out the slope of regression (Sigmaplot, 2013), and p-value simple linear regression way to detect the relationship between the gas concentration and temperature by simple linear regression. And using surfer 13 programs to show gas behavior and GIs program (Surfer, 2013). 1452 Impact of carbon dioxide concentrations on atmospheric temperature changes over Iraq and some neighboring countries

Fig. 3: The spatial variation of total yearly behavior of CO 2 for period (2003-2016)

Study the Behavior of Monthly Mean of Temperature in Study Stations The Fig. 4 and Fig. 5 showing the behavior of temperature , data of temperature was taken from the European Center Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ,The program Surfer13 was used to plot the spatial distribution of the rates monthly of temperature of each month of the year during the period of study [2003-2016], this maps as shown in figure (4). during the study it founded that the highest temperature in the southern stations of Iraq in the August, and the lowest temperature in the January, while in the neighbor stations temperature less than Iraqi stations, just Jubail stations in Saudi Arabia has temperature like the southern stations of Iraq, because it has high concentration of greenhouse gases Jubail was industry region therefore has high pollutions. The highest rate of temperature was observed in August in Basrah station in south part of Iraq where the average temperature was 39ºC and the lowest temperature during August was in Batman in Turkey where the temperature was 26ºC. The lowest rate of temperature was during the month of January where temperature was the lowest -2ºC in Batman in Turkey and the highest rate of temperature during the month of January

Fig. 2: The behavior of monthly mean of carbon dioxide for in Byblos in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia where the the period (2003-2016). temperature was 13ºC. Swma Jamalalden Al-jaf and Osama Tareq Al-Taai 1453

Fig. 5: The spatial variation of temperature behavior in the study stations

Effect of Change in CO 2 on Temperature for Period (2003-2016) By studying the behavior of carbon dioxide gas by taking yearly averages for the study period (2003-2016), we observe that CO 2 gas is constantly increasing as a result of the increase of fossil fuel combustion, the generation of coal, oil and natural gas mainly, the use of alternative energy and the use of oil and its products. Transportation, aviation and electricity generation. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that causes high temperature (9-26%). 75% of the increase in carbon dioxide is due to the burning of fossil fuels and the rest is human consumption such as removing trees and leaves Another factor that plays an important role in this increase is the increase in the population, The highest value of carbon dioxide during the summer and decrease during the winter and the beginning of the plant growth season where the plants withdraw carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through the process of photosynthesis, so the value of CO in the cold 2 months and increase during the summer months warm, see the Fig. 6 .

405 35 Batman station CO 2 400 T 30

395 25 C) 0 390 20

385 15 Temperature(

Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Carbon 380 10

375 5 370 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fig. 4: The behavior of monthly mean of temperature for the Years period (2003-2016). 1454 Impact of carbon dioxide concentrations on atmospheric temperature changes over Iraq and some neighboring countries

405 35 4 0 5 3 5 Mosul station CO 2 C O 2 A leppo station T T 400 30 4 0 0 3 0

395 25 3 9 5 2 5 C) C) 0 0 390 20 3 9 0 2 0

385 15 3 8 5 1 5 Temperature( Temperature(

Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Carbon 380 10

Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Carbon 3 8 0 1 0

375 5 3 7 5 5

370 0 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 3 7 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 20 2 2 2006 2007 2008 2009 2 2 2 2 2014 2015 2016 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Years Y e a rs 405 35 Sulaymaniyah station 405 35 CO 2 CO 2 Baghdad station 400 T 30 T 400 30

395 25 395 25 C) 0

390 20 C) 0 390 20 385 15 385 15 Temperature(

Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Carbon 380 10 Temperature(

Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Carbon 380 10 375 5

375 5 370 0 3 4 5 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2006 2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 370 0 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 3 4 5 6 1 1 00 00 Years 2 200 200 2 200 200 2009 201 201 2012 20 201 201 20 410 35 Years Jordan station CO 2 405 35 405 T 30 CO 2 Ahwaz station T 400 400 30 25 C)

395 0 395 25 20 C) 390 0 390 20 15 385 Temperature( 385 15

Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Carbon 10 380 Temperature(

Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Carbon 380 10 375 5

375 5 370 0 8 10 12 003 005 014 2002 2 2004 2 2006 2007 200 2009 20 2011 20 2013 2 2015 2016 2017 370 0 2 03 04 06 07 08 09 10 11 1 13 14 15 16 Years 0 20 20 2005 20 20 20 20 20 2 20 20 20 20 20 405 35 Years Nasiriyah station CO 2 T 400 30 405 35 Jubil station CO 2 T 395 25 400 30 C) 0 395 25 390 20 C) 0 390 20 385 15

Temperature( 385 15

Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Carbon 380 10 Temperature(

Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Carbon 380 10 375 5

375 5 370 0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 370 0 7 03 12 13 Years 0 005 006 00 010 011 0 0 015 016 2 2004 2 2 2 2008 2009 2 2 2 2 2014 2 2 Years 405 35 Hadithah station CO 2 Fig. 6 : Relationship between yearly mean of Carbon dioxide T 400 30 and Temperature in Iraq and neighbor countries stations 395 25 C) 0 390 20 Scatter Plot between CO 2 and Temperature 385 15 Temperature(

Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Carbon 380 10 Through use correlation coefficient spearman (rho)

375 5 between carbon dioxide and temperatures it founded

370 0 5 7 9 1 3 5 03 0 0 0 10 1 12 1 14 1 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2004 2 2006 2 2008 20 2 20 2 20 2 20 2 that there is a positive correlation between the increase Years of gas concentrations and high temperature and correlation 405 35 CO Amara station 2 coefficient values are higher in the northern region of Iraq 400 T 30 and in Iran and Turkey, it means that Iraq and neighboring 395 25 C) 0 390 20 areas suffer of the increase of concentrations of carbon

385 15 dioxide gas, which is one of the greenhouse gases, then Iraq Temperature(

Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Carbon 380 10 and neighboring countries in the risk of facing global

375 5 warming. Using the sigma plot program (scatter plot)

370 0 4 6 7 0 3 6 between the monthly rates of total CO and temperature 0 05 0 0 1 11 1 14 1 0 0 0 0 2 2003 2 2 20 20 2008 2009 20 2 2012 20 2 2015 20 Years during the study period (2003-2016) for Iraq and 405 35 CO 2 Basrah station neighboring countries, in order to know the strength of the T 400 30 relationship between the increase of gas concentrations and 395 25 C) 0 the high temperature of the area of study. In order to know 390 20

385 15 the strength of the correlation between the concentrations of Temperature(

Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Carbon 380 10 gas and temperature we used the statistical laboratory 375 5 (Spearman), note that the relationship between gas

370 0 3 9 0 04 05 07 08 0 10 11 13 14 15 16 concentrations and temperature is a positive relationship 20 20 20 2006 20 20 20 20 20 2012 20 20 20 20 Years positively for Iraq to be the largest coefficient of correlation between gas and temperature in Amara where the value of correlation coefficient (+0.4), which lies to the south of Iraq. The greatest value of the coefficient of correlation between the gas and temperature concentrations in the northern regions of Iraq, where the value of the coefficient of Swma Jamalalden Al-jaf and Osama Tareq Al-Taai 1455

Sulaymaniyah station correlation between gas and temperature in the Sulamaniyah 40

CO 2 vs T station (0.4) and in Mosul station (0.3). For the countries 35 neighboring Iraq, the highest value of the Spearman 30 C) coefficient is in Ahwaz (Iran) where the coefficient of 0 25 correlation (+ 0.5) and in Batman (Turkey) the correlation 20 coefficient value (+0.4) Gas and positive grades even if they 15 Temperature( are lower values, positive value between gas and 10

Temperature means that the high concentration of CO2 has 5 impact on high Temperature and in result has impact on 0 387 388 389 390 391 global warming in study stations, see the Fig. 7 and Table Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Hadithah station 2. 40

CO 2 vs T Table 2: The values of the Spearman coefficient correlate 35 30 between temperature and CO 2 for period (2003-2016) for C) study stations 0 25 20

Spearman rho Simple linear 15 Temperature(

Stations test regression 10

R Correlation P-value Relationship 5

Batman 0.4 low 0.2 Linear 0 387 388 389 390 391 Mosul 0.3 low 0.7 Non-linear Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Baghdad station Aleppo 0.2 low 0.5 Non-linear 40

CO 2 vsT Sulamaniyah 0.4 low 0.2 Linear 35

Hadithah 0.1 low 0.8 Non-linear 30 C) Baghdad 0.1 low 0.8 Non-linear 0 25 Amman 0.3 low 0.3 Linear 20

Amarah 0.4 low 0.4 Non-linear Temperature( Ahwaz 0.5 low 0.2 Linear 10 Nasriyah 0.2 low 0.5 Non-linear 5 0 Basrah 0.3 low 0.5 Non-linear 387 388 389 390 391 Jubail 0.2 low 0.4 Non-linear Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Jordan station 40 CO 2 vs T Batman station 35 40

Co 2 vs T 30 35 C)

0 25 30

20 C)

0 25

20 Temperature(

10 15 Temperature( 5 10

0 5 387 388 389 390 391 0 Carbon dioxide(ppmv) 387 388 389 390 391 Amara station Carbon dioxide(ppmv) 40 CO vs T Mosul station 2 40 35

CO 2 vs T 35 30 C)

30 0 25 C) 0 25 20

20 15 Temperature( 15

Temperature( 10

10 5 5 0 0 387 388 389 390 391 387 388 389 390 391 Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Carbon dioxide(ppmv) Ahwaz station Halab station 40 CO vs T 40 2 35 CO 2 vs T

30 30 C)

0 25 C)

0 20 20

15 Temperature(

10 10 Temperature( 5

0 0 387 388 389 390 391 Carbon dioxide(ppmv) -10 387 388 389 390 391 Fig. 7: Relationship between CO 2 and T for period (2003-2016) Carbon dioxide(ppmv) for study stations

1456 Impact of carbon dioxide concentrations on atmospheric temperature changes over Iraq and some neighboring countries

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