2007
Background Reports ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The Muskoka Watersheds Report Card is based on current science and local monitoring programs. It would be impossible to recognize all the technical experts who have willingly provided their input and assistance but we are grateful to all of them. Without their knowledge and expertise, it would not have been possible to complete this project.
In particular, we would like to acknowledge our provincial and federal partners. The staff of the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of the Environment were essential in providing data and guidance.
The Trillium Foundation, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Department of Fisheries and Oceans provided the funding for the Muskoka Inventory Project, without which we could not have completed the land component of the Report Card.
It is through working together that we will all be able to protect the health of the watersheds that we all love and enjoy. 2007 MUSKOKA WATERSHEDS REPORT CARD
TABLE OF CONTENTS
MESSAGE FROM THE CHAIR...... 2
KEY MESSAGES...... 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY……………………………………………………………………….4
INTRODUCTION...... 8
WATER ...... 10
AIR ...... 28
LAND...... 41
CLIMATE...... 64
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION ...... 75
GLOSSARY ...... 81 MESSAGE FROM THE CHAIR
As we increase our understanding of the health of our watersheds and the factors that impact on their condition, we have more questions than answers. Increasing amounts of research and analysis provide more detailed perspectives, revealing more complex relationships than previously appreciated. For example, the recently completed Muskoka Strengthen Nature’s Inventory Project provides new insights into the current condition of our land and its Capacity to Cope with contributions to the overall health of the watershed.
Change A watershed is defined as the land area that drains into a particular body of water, such as a lake or a river, and includes all the natural and human communities found there. The report Card looks at the health of the Muskoka and Black/Severn River Watersheds that flow from Algonquin Park through Muskoka, Haliburton, Simcoe, and Parry Sound into Georgian Bay.
For over two decades, measures of the health of the watersheds of Muskoka focused on the quality of the water in lakes and rivers. A more recent and broader view of watershed health considers not only the state of the water, but the quality of surrounding terrestrial and aquatic habitats such as forests and wetlands, and the air in which they function. The following sections on Land, Air and Water detail various indicators of watershed health.
Recent thought challenges us to understand the importance of the local, regional and global interconnectedness of the natural systems. While natural evolutionary change occurs When one tugs at a regardless of human activity, people cause other kinds of change. At a global we’re seeing single thing in nature, the effects of climate change, acid deposition , and exotic species. At the local level we see changes to natural habitats resulting from forestry practices and the way that development is he finds it attached to influenced and controlled. the rest of the world. The primary objective of the 2007 Watershed Report Card is to evaluate change in John Muir ecosystem condition and the impact of human actions against a standard of a healthy, functioning and sustainable watershed.
The best insurance against loss of the natural, scenic, economic and intrinsic watershed values that are important to the people of Muskoka is to maintain our watersheds in as natural a condition as possible, buffering whatever stresses they face now and in the future.
Several recent studies confirm that protecting, maintaining and enhancing the health and the diversity of ecosystems is essential to long-term sustainability of watersheds that will be threatened by the changing climate.
Simply put, as a community, we will need to strengthen nature’s ability to cope with change.
How is this best accomplished? The 2007 Report Card focuses on four primary dimensions of watershed health where we can make a difference: water, air, land and climate. The Report Card provides the foundation for an initial consideration of the key messages outlined below and described in detail in the following chapters.
Deb CummiCummingngngng Chair
KEY MESSAGES
Strengthen Nature’s Capacity to Cope with Change
ö Reduce habitat fragmentation
ö Maintain large undisturbed natural areas
ö Contain urban sprawl
ö Remediate degraded land and water resources
ö Reduce hardened surfaces
ö Protect natural vegetation along shorelines
ö Protect significant wetlands
ö Reduce carbon emissions
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The report card takes an ecosystem approach to the analysis of watershed health An ecosystem is a unit of the living part of the world (Biosphere) e.g. pond, lake, forest, meadow, biome region e.g. great lakes forest. These units can be very small or very large. They all have living (e.g. ferns and frog) and non-living (e.g. water, soil, air) parts and they all have the sun as their source of energy. Energy moves through the ecosystem through food An ecosystem is a chains from plants (producers) to animals (consumers) to decomposers in a one-way flow. However, ecosystems all cycle or recycle nutrients e.g. phosphorus, nitrogen and carbon unit of the living part etc. All of this goes on in a kind of fluctuating balance (dynamic equilibrium). of the world e.g. pond, lake, forest, In the report card, the Muskoka and Black/Severn River watersheds are large ecosystems. meadow Inside these large ecosystem are a number of smaller ecosystems: ponds, wetlands, softwood forests, hardwood forests, meadows, lakes, streams, barrens, edge habitats between forest and field each merging into the next. This report card reflects the health and balance that exists in our watershed ecosystems.
Water
As people live and work around lakes, rivers and streams, they impact and change those ecosystems. Some changes may be beneficial and others may degrade the natural systems upon which both humans and other species rely. This report uses a variety of indicators to Maintain natural identify present and potential stresses on lake systems and evaluates the health of both watersheds water used for recreation and the water we drink.
Our waterbodies are generally in good to very good condition for recreational use. However, our lakes are changing and scientists do not completely understand the processes that are currently occurring. Natural events and behaviours are becoming less predictable and long- term trends are not as well understood as they were previously. It appears that some indices suggest improvement while others indicate deterioration. It is generally agreed that climate change is affecting natural processes, and that intact natural systems will be critical in adapting to projected changes in climate.
Prepare and implement Phosphorus is the nutrient that controls the growth of algae in most Ontario lakes. For this remedial action plans reason, a change in phosphorus concentration in a lake impacts the types of algae that live in the lake and the potential for algae blooms. Algae blooms detract from recreational water for all lakes considered quality and in some cases affect the habitat of coldwater fish species such as lake trout. Over Threshold The long-term objective is to maintain natural levels of phosphorus. Although there has been a gradual increase in long-term phosphorus over the undeveloped standard, improvement is occurring and over the last twenty years, phosphorus in over 60% of the lakes in Muskoka has remained constant or has decreased.
Protect natural Shorelines vegetation protects waterbodies from nutrients and toxic chemicals that can be vegetation along carried into the lake and contribute to water quality issues. Native vegetation is an important component of a lake system and provides habitat, stormwater management, water shorelines. purification and visual beauty. Naturally vegetated yard-areas between the residence and the water strengthen nature’s capacity to resist stress, as do increased set backs for both buildings and septic systems.
Protect sources of The protection of both private and municipal sources of water is essential to maintaining drinking water good drinking water supplies. In order to have a drinking water problem, there must be a source of contamination. With few exceptions, neither public nor private drinking water sources within our watersheds are subject to significant threats or possible sources of contamination.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Air
The watersheds of interest to the Muskoka Watershed Council are located on the eastern shores of Georgian Bay of Lake Huron. This geographic position is critical to our air quality Poor Air Quality as much of the air pollution that affects Ontario comes from the United States. This portion Smog (NOx + VOC) of Central Ontario is in the flow path of the air mass that originates in the heavily industrialized Ohio Valley, which brings with it high concentrations of particulate matter, and nitrous oxide and volatile organic compounds that cause smog and ozone. PM 2.5 The recreational area of Muskoka/Georgian Bay/Parry Sound has always been considered to be pristine, healthy and a good place to escape the dirty air of many of the urban areas to the south. In the early 1900’s people were sent to the Sanatorium in Gravenhurst to enjoy the fresh air and recover from tuberculosis. However, since the industrialization of southern Ontario and the Ohio Valley in the States this has been a myth. Locally, with steam trains and steam boats, excessive lumbering and industrial development in the early 1900’s, not to mention the pollutants that would have been carried into the watershed from more distant sources, our air quality has not been pristine for decades.
Reduce energy Components of air pollution come from various sources including point sources such as consumption in homes industry and coal fire electricity generation plants, mobile sources such as most forms of and businesses, and transportation, and natural sources such as forest fires. Much air pollution impacting Muskoka comes from the United States but a significant portion of that source is generated for recreation and to fuel local manufacturing, transportation of consumer goods and power generation. transportation Therefore, local actions to reduce electricity use and consumption of goods will reduce the demand for and the need to produce these goods and services.
Muskoka’s air quality has been measured for several years, and the record shows that its quality is below a healthy standard one day out of three or four during May through September. If our air quality is to improve, a greater concerted effort will be required from federal, provincial, and municipal governments along with behaviour and lifestyle changes Advocate for from individuals and businesses
meaningful Further improvements in Ontario’s air quality depend on the ability of the provincial and legislation, federal governments to negotiate stricter emission controls on Canadian and U.S. industries. mandatory A fundamental approach to our American neighbours is to set a good example with strong regulations and hard political leadership and demonstrated emission reductions that are monitored and reported targets for carbon to the public.
emissions, and The province has taken a leadership role but their plan will only be successful if it is programs and implemented at the local level by businesses, municipalities, school boards, individuals and services that ensure all possible organizations. The province needs to set guidelines and provide expertise to cleaner air help the reduction of air pollutants as well as to educate the public about the importance of dealing with the problem.
Land
Land ecosystems play several key roles in a healthy watershed. They provide resources such as food, clean water, medicine, clothes, furniture and heat. They regulate water levels Forests provide food, and control flooding, moderate our climate, improve the quality of the air we breathe and limit clean water, flood the spread of disease. They serve as a base for much of our recreational activities allowing control, clean air and for spiritual rejuvenation and the expression of cultural values. They provide essential a place to relax. supporting services to nutrient cycling by producing oxygen binding carbon and fixing nitrogen.
Forests sequester carbon and support birdlife that controls pests. They contribute directly to the economy through the ongoing production of forest products and indirectly by providing a setting for our tourism industry. 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Maintain large Although much of the watershed remains naturally vegetated, the recently completed natural areas Watershed Inventory Project makes clear that there are some serious threats on the horizon. Maintaining ecological function is critical if we are to benefit from natural areas, but this is dependent to a significant degree on maintaining large undisturbed natural areas and also maintaining a representative sample of all ecosystems within a connected and self- sustaining system.
The Watershed Inventory indicates that much of the forested area in our watersheds is Reduce fragmentation by fragmented through development and vulnerable to other forms of degradation. The ever- preserving, connecting increasing network of roads and other transportation and communications corridors are and enhancing natural resulting in a sharp reduction in undisturbed wilderness. In a very real sense, much of areas Muskoka and the surrounding areas are experiencing a form of urban sprawl that threatens our natural areas and the health of our watersheds. Remediation efforts through land acquisition or habitat improvement are vital in order to enhance the important ecological values that contribute to watershed health.
Stormwater carries Stormwater runoff from built up areas is generated from a number of sources including pollutants, nutrients, residential areas, commercial and industrial areas, roads, highways and bridges. sediment, oil and toxic Essentially, any surface which does not have the capability to pond and infiltrate water will produce runoff during storm events. When a land area is altered from a natural forested chemicals to our lakes ecosystem to rooftops, streets and parking lots, the hydrology of the system is significantly and rivers. altered. Water that previously ponded on the forest floor, infiltrated into the soil and converted to groundwater, used by plants and evaporated or transpired into the atmosphere is now converted directly into surface runoff. As the amount of hardened surfaces increase in a watershed, more rainfall is converted to runoff and not available to the watershed processes that depend on it.
Stormwater from built-up areas usually carries a witches’ brew of pollutants, nutrients, sediment, oil and toxic chemicals that enter streams, rivers and lakes diminishing water Reduce hardened clarity, reducing oxygen levels, contributing to undesirable algae blooms, and damaging fish surfaces in built-up habitat. areas In order to protect the ecosystems supported by the lakes and rivers that flow through our communities, urban areas should strive to reduce hardened surfaces to a level where water is still available for plants and animals and groundwater is replenished.
The shoreline zone is the last line of defence against the forces that damage otherwise healthy lakes and rivers. A naturally vegetated shoreline filters run-off removing harmful chemicals and nutrients. It prevents erosion and provides critical aquatic habitat. Preserve and protect natural vegetation Wetlands provide continuous, sustainable, environmental, economic and social benefits that contribute to healthy watersheds. They maintain and improve water quality, aid in flood along shorelines control and protect from shoreline erosion. They support complex food chains that are essential for a broad range of living organisms, provide habitat for a wide variety of plants, animal and aquatic species, control and store water, and allow for the recharge and discharge of groundwater.
Identify and protect The identification and protection of significant wetlands within our watersheds has not significant wetlands received the attention it deserves. If water quality and watershed health are to be sustained, that are essential to this must become a high priority item. watershed health
6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Climate
Climate is the sum of the prevailing weather conditions of a place over a period of time and is comprised of all the features associated with weather, such as temperature, wind patterns, precipitation, and storms. Since the agricultural revolution, the human influence on the natural world including climate has accelerated.
A clear majority of respected and responsible scientists and community leaders agree that climate change is occurring and that humans are responsible for warming the planet at a rate In 1997, the average that has never been experienced in human history. Since the Industrial Revolution, home created concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased by 30 per cent, methane by 145 per cent, approximately 13 tons and nitrous oxide by 15 per cent. As a result, within the past century the average global 0 of Green House Gas temperature has increased by 0.8 Celsius. However, only very recently has it been possible emissions. to detect even minute shifts in either temperature or biological response to the warming trend. Even then, natural variation and evolutionary change make it very difficult to state 33.9% space with absolute certainty that any particular local trend is a result of global climate change. heating. 13.7% water The cause of these increases has been human activities related to our increasingly sophisticated and mechanized lifestyle, in particular the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, heating oil, and natural gas to generate electricity and to fuel our factories and cars. As well, we 8.2% lighting have cleared more land for human use in the past 100 years than in all of prior human history. This has resulted in the loss of forests and wetlands, which absorb and store greenhouse gases and naturally regulate the atmosphere.
Climate change will have ecological, social and economic impacts on the local watersheds. Scientists do not understand all the possible implications but some changes and stresses are already being documented not only across Canada and the world but also in Muskoka. Some data that may be interesting to track over time that will be influenced by global warming include: data for freeze up and break up of local lakes and rivers; first and last days for golfing; severe weather events such as wind storms, hail and tornados, flooding and freezing rain; the return date of migratory birds, and sighting of birds and animals that usually live farther south.
Impacts on regional watersheds
Global climate models and scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions indicate a warming of our Temperature may watersheds by 2.2°C to 4°C, accompanied by an increase of precipitation of 1% to 16%. 0 increase by 2.2 to 4 C. The net results could include the following: Precipitation may increase from 1% to • Decreasing lake levels on Georgian Bay of 0.08 m to 1.18 m. • 16%. Increased temperature of inland lakes and reduced dissolved oxygen leading to changes in the freshwater fishery with resulting impacts on the recreational fishery industry. • Increased forest fire hazard and insect infestations. • Increased severe weather damage resulting in higher costs to address storm damage. • Increased health costs due to increase in air pollution. • Changes in outdoor recreation activities including hunting due to habitat loss, and in snowmobiling and X-country skiing due to warmer winters. • Loss of many traditional native species as ecosystems change in response to climate variation.
7 INTRODUCTION
The Muskoka Watershed Council has an interest in the health of all the watersheds totally or partially within the District of Muskoka. A watershed is defined as the land area that drains into a particular body of water, such as a lake or river, and includes all the natural and human communities found there.
The Watersheds Report Card will report on the health of The Muskoka River Watershed, the Black/Severn River Watershed and includes smaller river such as the Moon River and Musquash River among others (See Map 1).
The municipalities that make up this watershed region include all six Area Municipalities within the District of Muskoka plus the southern portion of the Township of the Archipelago, Seguin Township, McMurrich/Monteith Township, Perry Township and the Town of Kearney in the District of Parry Sound. In the County of Haliburton the eastern portion of the Townships of Algonquin Highlands, Dysart et al, and Minden Hills fall within this watershed region. The northern portion of the City of Kawartha Lakes the northern portion of the County of Simcoe and the western portion of Algonquin Park make up the remainder of the land area within the watershed.
Map 1: Location Map
Background
The watersheds of Muskoka are underlain by granite-gneisses bedrock that was formed during the Precambrian age (3.7 billion to 570 million years ago). During the Pleistocene epoch (1.8 million to 10,000 years ago), the advances and retreats of the Laurentian ice sheet have since worn them down. This process has resulted in the many lakes that dot the landscape.
The terrain is generally characterized by rough relief with rounded ridges and knobs varying from 15 to 60m in height and numerous wetlands in low-lying areas. Soils vary considerably over short distances from outwash sands and gravels to glacio-lacustrine fine grained silts and clay deposits formed while much of the area was submerged under Lake Algonquin following the retreat of the glaciers approximately 10,400 years ago 1.
1 Chapman, LJ & DF Putman. 1984. The physiography of southern Ontario. 3rd edition. Government of Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. INTRODUCTION
The chemistry and general characteristics of lakes and other surface water is determined by the geology and watershed parameters that are unique to each lake. However, generally in Muskoka/Haliburton/Parry Sound, lakes tend to be clear, low in nutrients, and have low alkalinity , because of the granite bedrock. It is these characteristics that make this area a desirable cottage and tourist destination. In order to maintain this economic base, along with the ecological significance of the lakes, maintaining the health of the natural systems of the watershed is important.
Watershed Health
For over two decades, watershed health has been narrowly defined as the trophic status , or nutrient enrichment, of the lakes within the watershed. More recently, a broader view of watershed health has been embraced that considers not only the nutrient enrichment of waterbodies but also the quality of surrounding terrestrial and aquatic habitat, forest health, changes in fish populations and bacteria levels in lakes, amongst other matters.
Recent ecological thought challenges us to broaden our understanding of nature and recognize that natural processes are complicated and interconnected. Ecosystems are changing but not all change is bad and not all change can be controlled at a local level. Change is occurring on three different levels:
1. Natural evolutionary change that would occur regardless of human activity. 2. Global change such as climate change, acid deposition and invasive species. 3. Local change such as development pressure, forestry practices and structural alteration to fish habitat.
In order to understand the stresses, changes and strengths of the lakes within our watersheds a variety of factors have been considered and reported on through the Muskoka Watersheds Report Card.
In general, the best insurance against loss of the natural, scenic, economic and intrinsic watershed values is to maintain our watersheds in as natural a condition as possible. In this way, the strengths of the intact natural system will be able to buffer whatever stress occurs.
The objective of the Watersheds Report Card is to evaluate changes in ecosystem condition and the impact of human actions against a standard of a healthy functioning ecosystem . A review of existing data on the health of our water, air and land forms the basis upon which the Watersheds Report Card was developed.
The section on climate change examines the potential and current impact of this very real stress on our natural systems and explores what it might mean for the future ecological, social and economic health of the watersheds.
In summary there is a review of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to the watershed that highlight areas and programs that can address some of the identified threats, build on the strengths and take advantage of the opportunities to ensure the long-term health of the area.
9 WATER
Recreational water quality, drinking water quality, and water within the natural system, including the health of aquatic species such as fish are the fundamental base of a healthy watershed . As people live and work around lakes, they impact and change the lake ecosystem . Some of these changes may be beneficial and others may degrade the natural systems upon which both humans and other species rely. The report card uses a variety of indicators to identify present and potential stresses on lake systems and to evaluate the health of our water resources.
Indicators of the health of the water in Muskoka include:
1. Recreational Water Quality a. Nutrient enrichment b. Lake sensitivity c. Changes in lake clarity d. Bacteria levels in surface water e. Changes in algal communities f. Impact of acid deposition 2. Drinking Water Quality a. Municipal drinking water systems b. Private drinking water systems c. Source Water Protection 3. Aquatic Habitat a. Fish habitat b. Impact of shoreline development 4. Stewardship activities a. Lake Associations b. Municipal action
Background
Lake Size Chart 1 There are over 500 lakes in this geographic area that range in Lake Size size from very large and deep to very small and shallow. Chart 1 500 384 illustrates the range in lake size 400 across the watersheds. Each 300 lake has its own characteristics 200 and natural healthy equilibrium; 71 therefore, in evaluating the Lakes of No. 100 7 6 1 1 0 4 health of a lake it can only be 0 compared to itself as it changes .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 + 0- 4 9 9 9 9 9 50 over time and should not be 1- 5- compared to other lakes. 10-1 20-2 30-3 40-4 Lake Size (km2) Recreational Water Quality
Recreational water quality is the quality of the water in lakes and rivers used by people to enhance recreational pursuits such as swimming, boating, fishing and aesthetic enjoyment. The standard indicators of good recreational water quality used across Ontario have been adopted as reliable indices for the Muskoka Watersheds Report Card and include phosphorus levels, water clarity, bacteria levels and acid deposition.
Lakes in Muskoka are generally in good to very good condition for recreational use as defined by the number of algae blooms and background bacteria levels. It is important to note, however, that lakes are WATER
changing and that scientists do not completely understand the processes that are currently occurring. In general, data are becoming more chaotic and long-term trends are not as predictable as previously observed. As noted below, some indices suggest signs of improvement while others indicate deterioration. It is generally agreed that climate change is affecting natural processes, therefore, intact natural systems, as we enjoy in Muskoka, will be critical in adapting to the projected changes in climate for this area.
Nutrient Enrichment
Phosphorus is the nutrient that controls the growth of algae in most Ontario lakes. For this reason, a change in phosphorus concentration in a lake impacts the types of algae that live in the lake and the potential for algae blooms. Algae blooms detract from recreational water quality and in some cases affect the habitat of coldwater fish species such as lake trout.
The District Municipality of Muskoka has monitored over 180 lakes across the District for over twenty-five (25) years for Secchi depth and phosphorus levels. Even with this long-term data set, it is difficult to understand changes and trends that might be occurring. Phosphorus levels in a lake will naturally vary between years as a result of such factors as precipitation, wind, and levels of sunlight. Scientists are also starting to understand that climate change is also affecting phosphorus levels. In order to understand trends in phosphorus concentration detailed studies that relate all these factors to variables such as development, invasive species and other human impacts would be necessary.
In any watershed, there is also a natural variation in phosphorus concentration from lake to lake as a result of such variables as lake size, amount of wetlands, and flow characteristics. This variation should be maintained over time as development and other changes occur. Chart 2, graphs the variance in phosphorus concentration across the watershed. The long-term objective is to maintain the same number of lakes with 3, 9, 15 and 20ug/l 2 of phosphorus, as there would be without development. As the bars on the graph move to the right the lakes are experiencing higher phosphorus concentrations, which might result in more algae blooms. As the bars shift to the left the lakes are experiencing lower phosphorus concentration, which might result in a loss of lake productivity and lead to stress in aquatic animals. Neither situation is desirable or healthy for the long-term life of the lake.
Chart 2 illustrates that there has been a gradual shift in long-term phosphorus levels to the right, which indicates a slight increase in phosphorus concentrations over the undeveloped standard. However, improvement is occurring and over the last twenty years, phosphorus in over 60% of the lakes in Muskoka has remained constant or has decreased.
Chart 2 Total Phosphorus Comparison Pre-development to 2006 Monitored Data
100 90 80 70 Backgroud 60 50 2003 data 40 2006 data 30 Sampled 20 10
Number of Number Lakes 0
9 9 9 9 . . . . 0+ -4 -9 14 19 2 0 5 0- 5- 1 1 Total Phosphorus (ug/l)
2 ug/l means micrograms per litre and is equivalent to parts per billion (ppb). This would represent one grain of sand in one billion grains of sand.
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Data collected by the Ministry of Environment over a wide series of lakes across all of Ontario indicate that many lakes are experiencing a decrease in phosphorus. The mechanism for this decrease is not completely understood but the multiple stresses of climate change and acid deposition are considered to be a contributing factor. Long-term studies are required to truly understand the complex nature of such trends.
Paleo core samples indicate that in some cases, the present day concentration of phosphorus on some lakes in Muskoka is below that experienced before European development on the lake. 3 The data collected by the District of Muskoka over the last twenty years also indicates that some lakes are decreasing in phosphorus concentration. In fact, forty-seven lakes in Muskoka have a long-term phosphorus average of less than the predicted background or undevelopment value for that lake.
This apparent contradiction in data makes it hard for lake managers to develop effective programs and predict the impact of management decisions. Further monitoring of lake system changes is required to fully understand many of these trends.
Chart 3 illustrates that sixty-two percent (62%) of lakes in the watershed are considered oligotrophic , or nutrient poor, and have phosphorus concentrations of less than 10 ug/l 4. These lakes are considered excellent recreational lakes and are highly valued for cottage development. Thirty-five percent (35%) of the lakes are considered mesotrophic , or moderately enriched, and have phosphorus concentrations between 10 and 20ug/l. These lakes tend to be smaller and support warm water fish species and more diverse shoreline habitat. Three percent (3%) are considered eutrophic , or enriched, and have phosphorus concentrations over 20ug/l. These lakes naturally have elevated levels of phosphorus based on natural watershed inputs.
Chart 3 Long Term Phosphorus (ug/L)
120 100 80 60 40 20 Nu,mber Nu,mber of Lakes 0 Under 10 between 10 & 20 over 20 Phopshorus Concentration ug/l
Lake Sensitivity
The single most significant impact on water quality on most recreational lakes and rivers in Ontario is the increased levels of phosphorus that are entering surface waterbodies. Sources of phosphorus are both natural and man-made. Natural sources of phosphorus include such things as precipitation and natural drainage from the watershed. Man made sources of phosphorus include increases in overland flow as a result of disruption in the natural vegetation (leading to erosion) in and beyond the riparian zone , use of
3 Cornelisse, K.J. and Evans, D.O. The Fairy and Peninsula Lakes Study, 1994-1998: Effects of Land Use on the Aquatic Ecosystem. 4 ug/l means micrograms per litre and is equivalent to parts per billion (ppb)
- 12 WATER
fertilizers, increased stormwater run-off from impervious surfaces and effluent from septic systems and sewage treatment plants.
The province of Ontario takes a strategic approach to managing the recreational water quality of lakes. The Provincial Water Management Guidelines state that to avoid nuisance concentrations of algae in lakes, total phosphorus concentrations should not exceed 20 ug/l. The guideline goes on to state that a high degree of protection against aesthetic deterioration will be provided by a phosphorus concentration of 10 ug/l. It is recommended that this lower standard should apply to all lakes that are naturally below 10 ug/l. 5
The District of Muskoka has taken a more pro-active approach to protecting recreational water quality and has established lake specific water quality standards that will protect the long-term health of the water resources in the watershed.
Based on the recreational water quality model as detailed in the report prepared by Gartner Lee Limited in 2005 entitled Recreational Water Quality Management in Muskoka , the lakes and rivers in Muskoka have been classified as having high, moderate or low sensitivity to phosphorus. This classification is based on the responsiveness of a waterbody to phosphorus and the mobility of phosphorus within the watershed. A lake’s classification will not change.
Lakes of low sensitivity respond only minimally to the input of phosphorus and it is unlikely that development related phosphorus will increase concentrations by more than 50% of the undeveloped phosphorus load. Where shoreline vegetation is maintained, lakes of moderate sensitivity have some ability to receive phosphorus without a significant decrease in water quality. Where a lake is classified as being of high sensitivity, there is the potential for development to input more phosphorus into a lake than it can sustain, causing the measured phosphorus levels to increase beyond the acceptable threshold.
Where the phosphorus loading to a waterbody exceeds 50% of the undeveloped phosphorus load, the lake or river is considered as being “Over Threshold” for phosphorus loading. "Over Threshold" lakes require a higher level of development control as a precautionary action to protect the long-term health of the lake.
Figure 1: Fairy Lake Data, illustrates both the background, or undeveloped phosphorus level and the threshold level of phosphorus that should not be surpassed for the lake. As is typical with most lakes, the Fairy Lake data has a high degree of variability from year to year. However, it is the long-term average of those annual data that is important. For Fairy Lake, the background level of 6.4 ug/l and the threshold level of 9.6 ug/l define the healthy zone. The long-term phosphorus average for Fairy Lake is 9 ug/l and falls within that healthy zone. This lake specific standard is below the provincial standard of 10 ug/l.
Muskoka has long-term monitoring data for approximately 183 lakes. Of those lakes, 142 lakes meet the stringent local water quality standard or threshold. As noted above, this standard is considerably more restrictive than current provincial standards and is used in a pro-active fashion to ‘red flag’ potential water quality concerns. When a lake is identified as exceeding its threshold value, a higher level of care is exercised during development and redevelopment, as a precautionary action, to protect the long-term health of the lake. The Province would not consider any of the forty-one (41) lakes that do not meet this local standard to be a water quality concern.
Where a lake has been identified as exceeding its threshold for phosphorus, Muskoka recommends that remedial action plans be prepared to address significant sources of human phosphorus. Currently remedial action plans are being developed for several lakes.
5 Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Water Management: Policies, Guidelines and Provincial Water Quality Objectives, July 1994.
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Figure 1: Fairy Lake Data
Programs have also been undertaken in Muskoka Bay in Gravenhurst and Long Lake in Muskoka Lakes where the municipal sewage treatment systems have been removed from those waterbodies and they are now beginning to recover. Several other lake associations have expressed an interest in developing stewardship programs and understanding the dynamics of their lakes in order to reduce human sources of phosphorus.
In summary, the water quality in area lakes is very good and the planning controls in place in each municipality should maintain that quality as development occurs. A comparison of the amount of development around a lake and the change in phosphorus concentration can provide some insight into this relationship. If the change in total phosphorus increases as development increases, it would indicate that development might be driving the phosphorus change: this is not the case.
A statistical comparison of development on the monitored lakes in Muskoka and the change in total phosphorus levels for those lakes demonstrates that there does not appear to be a significant relationship between the two. In other words, both the positive and negative changes in phosphorus levels in the lakes in Muskoka do not appear to be directly related to increases in development.
In summary, the above charts indicate the following:
1. Over 50% of lakes in Muskoka naturally have less that 10 ug/l total phosphorus and will generally not support excessive algae growth.
2. On average, lakes have slightly more phosphorus today than pre-development levels. However, over the last twenty years, phosphorus in over 60% of lakes has remained constant or has decreased.
3. Of a total of 183 lakes in Muskoka with data, 142 lakes meet the stringent local water quality standard. Of the 41 lakes that do not meet this standards: 21 lakes have long-term phosphorus concentrations of less than the provincial standard of 10 ug/l.
- 14 WATER
16 lakes have a decreasing trend in phosphorus levels
4. Development does not appear to be the sole driver in increases in phosphorus levels.
5. 47 lakes (26%) have a long-term phosphorus average of less than the predicted phosphorus level if the lake was undeveloped.
It is recommended that the watersheds be left as natural as possible in order to be able to buffer any stress in the future.
Lake Clarity (Secchi Depth) and Colour (DOC)
Secchi depth is a measurement of water clarity. In Muskoka, the major determinant of water clarity may be either natural colour, determined by dissolved organic compounds (DOC) or an increase in nutrient input from the surrounding watershed.
A lake may naturally be a brown colour due to high levels of DOC that comes from wetlands Chart 5 in a watershed. DOC colours lakes brown and reduces water clarity, but is not an DOC Levels indication of nutrient enrichment. Examples of lakes with naturally low clarity because of 50 high DOC content include Brandy Lake and 40 Tea Lake. These lakes tend to be smaller 30 and have Secchi depth readings of less than 20 two (2) metres. Chart 5 illustrates that thirty- 10 seven percent (37%) of lakes in Muskoka No.ofLakes have a reading of 5 ug/l or higher DOC, which 0 indicates that they are moderately to .9 .9 .0 - 4 - 6 10 .0 .0 - significantly coloured. 0 5 7.0 DOC (mg/l) Water clarity can also decrease as nutrients from the surrounding watershed enter and enrich the lake, resulting in high levels of suspended sediments or algal growth.
Water clarity can change weekly or yearly as a result of weather, length of winter ice cover, shoreline development, natural seasonal trends or other impacts. However, when the primary determinant of water clarity is a function of nutrient enrichment, a long-term trend that indicates a reduction in water clarity is an indication of reduced water quality. Charts 6, indicates that lakes in Muskoka that are not influenced by DOC tend to be clear with Secchi depths of more than four (4) metres. Thirty-six percent (36%) of lakes have a sechhi depth of four (4) metres or greater.
Chart 6 Secchi Depth
100
80
60 No. 40 of Lakes 20 0 0-1.99 2-3.99 4-5.99 6+
Secchi Depth (m)
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Muskoka has monitored lake clarity for over twenty-five years. These data (Chart 7) show that the clarity on ninety percent (90%) of lakes has Chart 7 either stayed the same or improved over that time Change in Secchi Depth Readings period. Specifically, eighty percent (80%) of the lakes have not had a significant change in their 120 Secchi depth reading, while nine percent (9%) have increasing water clarity. Nine percent (9%) 100 have seen a decrease in water clarity. Several 80 lakes in this third category are small and have high DOC readings and higher natural levels of 60 enrichment. The constant level of water clarity 40 reflects the excellent recreational water quality experienced across the watershed and the Lakes of Number 20 naturally low levels of phosphorus in lakes. 0 In reviewing the District of Muskoka Secchi depth Decreasing Increasing No Change data, only one lake stands out as an anomaly having low DOC and a low Secchi depth reading. 6 Change in Secchi Depth A remedial action program is already being implemented on this lake to address the issue of increases in phosphorus loading as a result of development and other human activity.
Bacteria Levels
Since the E.coli outbreak in Walkerton in the spring of 2000, there has been an increased interest in bacteria levels in lakes. The term bacteria refers to a wide range of microorganisms, many of which cause disease. Groups of bacteria, called indicators (total coliform, E.coli ) occur at higher concentrations in the intestinal tract of both people and animals and can be used to identify possible areas of contamination.
From a health perspective, there is an interest in bacteria levels because of the possible illness or diseases that may result from drinking or swimming in contaminated areas. Recently, there has been an increase in the interest in using the trends in bacteria levels to understand the long-term impact of shoreline development and other human activities on recreational water quality. The Provincial standard for E.coli for full-body contact recreational use is 100cfu/100ml and is an indicator of the level at which there is a significant human health risk.
Several lake associations across Muskoka have identified a local standard of 10cfu/100ml as a more appropriate indicator of a change in water quality. This lower standard is based on several years of local testing that confirms that the background levels of E.coli in the recreational waters of Muskoka are consistent with undeveloped areas (<5cfu/100ml). Monitoring results from over 70 sites across Muskoka confirm that bacteria levels in shoreline residential areas are less than 10cfu/100ml and are generally less than 5cfu/100ml. Higher E.coli readings are more probable near marinas and in more densely developed areas like Honey Harbour and adjacent to some trailer parks. 7 Municipalities should be encouraged to explore programs to address these areas of higher bacteria concentrations.
6 The District of Muskoka Planning and Economic Development Department, 2006 Lake System Health Monitoring Program, Year End Report and Data Report, October 2006. 7 Schiefer, K. and Schiefer, K, Water Quality Report 2005, Township of Georgian Bay, GBA Foundation, December 2005. and LURA consulting, Muskoka Lakes Association, Water Quality Initiative, Summary report 2005, Monitoring Program, 2005. and Cumming D, Lake of Bays Association 2004-2005 Data, unpublished data and Jim Marshall Peninsula Lake Data, 2004 –2005 unpublished.
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Very preliminary testing of stormwater in urban areas indicates that very high bacteria counts can also be expected in near shore areas after storm events where the stormwater drains off parking lots or other hardened surfaces.
By monitoring lakes using this more stringent standard, areas that have consistently higher E.coli readings or have an increasing trend in E.coli levels can be identified.
There are several limitations to using bacteria as an indicator of water quality. In order to understand the data collected these need to be understood.
1. The level of indicator bacteria detected in water will usually decrease with time and distance from the pollution source. This means that any results are both site and time specific. If the discharge is stopped, the problem will disappear over a short period of time. 2. As with any data collection, one high reading does not necessarily constitute a significant concern. Data must be analyzed over time and with a series of results in order to understand the long-term trend and any management implications. 3. Volunteer-based monitoring that uses a home-test kit approach is a good method to identify possible areas of higher bacteria concentration, however, a scientific level study would be required to truly determine the cause of any specific hotspot and develop a reasonable remedial action plan. 4. Certain areas such as creeks and wetlands have a naturally higher level of bacteria that may not be a result of human activity.
Algae
Algal communities are changing in Canadian Shield lakes although scientists do not have a good understanding of the mechanisms behind these changes. Long-term trends are not evident at this time and this is an area that requires further study.
There is no question that there is a relationship between changes in phosphorus concentration and changes in algal production. However, there have been an increasing number of episodes of algae that thrive in low alkalinity , nutrient-poor lakes like lakes on the Canadian Shield. 8 Detailed study of a series of lakes in the Muskoka/Haliburton area show a marked increase in this type of algae, known as chrysophytes, in more than 90% of the lakes examined. The increase in chrysophytes is a change from the algae blooms that have historically been experienced in the area which would have had a higher percent of diatoms. Chrysophytes result in taste and odour problems that were not traditionally experienced in these lakes.
Rapid increase over the past two decades indicates that these trends are the result of one or more human based stressors that are operating at a broad, regional scale. After studying various factors that might explain this change, the recent studies determined that there was no correlation between lake water pH or increases in total phosphorus and the increase in chrysophytes. The data appeared to indicate that a regional stressor that may be induced through climate change might have more impact on the changes that are being experienced. 9
Acidic Deposition
The impact that acidic deposition will have on a waterbody is dependant on the buffering ability of the waterbody. Alkalinity is a measure of a lake’s ability to buffer the impacts of acid precipitation . The alkalinity of lake water is mostly determined by the geology of the soils and rocks surrounding the lake.
8 Paterson, A.M., Cumming, B.F., Smol, J.P., Hall, R.I. Marked Recent Increases of Colonial Scaled Chrysophytes in Boreal Lakes: Implications for the Management of Taste and Odour Events . In Freshwater Biology, 2004, 49 , 199-207 9 ibid
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Rocks that contain carbonate, bicarbonate, and hydroxide compounds contribute to alkalinity. In addition, other chemical compounds may add to the buffering capacity of water. Limestone, as found in southern Ontario, is an example of a rock that is rich in carbonates, and contributes to alkalinity in lake water. Granite is the opposite in that it does not contain any minerals that contribute to alkalinity, so lakes with granite geology have low alkalinity, and poor buffering capacity. Table 8 indicates that ninety-two percent (92%) of the lakes in Muskoka have an alkalinity reading of less than 20 ug/l, which means that they are susceptible to acid deposition.
Chart 8 Alkalinity Levels in Muskoka Lakes
70 60 50 40 30 20 No. of Lakes No. of 10 0
0 9 9 9 9 < 4. 9. 20+ 0- 5- 14. 19. 10- 15- Alkalinity (u/L)
Figure 2: Changes in Wet S0 4 Deposition illustrates that significant gains have been made in the reduction of SO 4 across eastern Canada, including in Muskoka/Haliburton/Parry Sound. However, recent studies undertaken in central Ontario indicate that given the current targets (after full implementation of reduction strategies in Canada and United States by the year 2010), the total area of eastern Canada where deposition is expected to continue to exceed the critical load covers almost 800,000 square kilometres, including about 95,000 lakes, and extends from central Ontario through southern Quebec and across much of the Atlantic provinces. Within these areas, many species of fish and other aquatic organisms will disappear entirely from some lakes and be severely reduced in others. The resulting decline in species richness, which is defined as the number of species per lake, is estimated to be between 6% and 15% for fish. Altogether, it is estimated that continuing acidification of these lakes will result in a net loss of nearly 162,000 fish populations alone. 10
In December 2005, the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) produced a five-year review of the Canada-Wide Acid Rain Strategy. In it, they indicate that even after all strategies are implemented after 2010, Muskoka will still be receiving 15 to 20 kg/ha/yr of acid deposition. It is estimated that the ‘critical load’ or the maximum yearly amount of acid deposition that will allow 95% of the lakes within a region to maintain a pH of 6 (acceptable measure of acidity) or more is less than 8 kg/ha/yr for the more sensitive lakes of our watersheds. 11
10 Canadian Wildlife Service, Ontario Region, Acid Rain, Effects on Lakes and Birds and Beyond. http://www.on.ec.gc.ca/wildlife_e.html 11 Environment Canada, State of the Environment Report website, http://www.ec.gc.ca/soer-ree/English
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Figure 2: Changes in Sulphate Deposition 1990-1994 to 1996-2000 (Source Ministry of the Environment)
Drinking Water
Municipal Systems
The Sierra Legal Defence Fund recently published its evaluation of municipal drinking water systems in Canada entitled Waterproof II – Canada’s Drinking Water Report Card. This report gave Ontario an A - stating that the province had Canada’s best drinking water legislation. Ontario was lauded for its rigorous standards, public transparency and accountability. The only concern expressed was for the slow adoption of source water protection legislation, which was subsequently passed by the legislature in October 2006 and came into force on July 3, 2007. 12
Provincial regulation requires all municipal plants to maintain this high standard of municipal drinking water. There are nine (9) municipal drinking water systems in the watershed, all located in the District of Muskoka.
As required by provincial legislation, Muskoka annually monitors twelve (12) inorganic parameters, such as mercury and cadmium, and over 55 organic parameters, such as pesticides and fertilizers. There have been no exceedances at any of the plants of either organic or inorganic parameters in the period of review. In addition, Muskoka monitors the raw water, treated water and water in the distribution lines for both e-coli and total coliform. As expected, the raw water will have bacteria counts from time to time, but there have been no adverse readings for bacteria in treated water and distribution system.
Private Systems
Over 50% of the residents in the watershed rely on private, individual sources of drinking water. These sources may either be surface water sources such as a lake or river, or they can be groundwater sources. If the water source is a drilled well, then the Health Unit recommends routine monitoring but does not
12 Sierra Legal Defence Fund, Waterproof II – Canada’s Drinking Water Report Card, October 2006
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indicate that a treatment system is necessary. Where the drinking water source is a shallow dug well or a surface water source the Health Unit recommends either a chlorine system or a UV filter to ensure safe water supplies.
Where a drinking water source is private, it is the responsibility of the private owner to ensure that the water is protected and potable. In Ontario, the Health Unit will test drinking water for bacteria contamination but no other water quality monitoring is undertaken on a routine basis. Through the Well Aware program 13 , individuals can learn how to care for their well and drinking water supply.
Muskoka has some of the most restrictive shoreline development policies in the province with the objective of protecting lake system health for both recreational and drinking water purposes. Recent policy amendments require increased set backs from waterbodies for both buildings and septic systems, property owners are encouraged to maintain or re-establish vegetation, and shoreline development is monitored in order to evaluate the implementation success of municipal policy and objectives.
Source Water Protection
In both private and municipal systems, the protection of the water source is key to maintaining good drinking water supplies. In order to have a drinking water problem, there must be a source of contamination. With few exceptions, neither public nor private drinking water sources are subject to significant threats or possible sources of contamination. In general, the major threats to either ground or surface water sources include municipal and private waste disposal systems, historic and existing landfill sites, agriculture, historic and existing industrial sites, like tanneries, and old buried gasoline storage tanks. Unlike major urban areas to the south, there are limited current or historic industries in the watershed that have contaminated drinking water sources. In addition, the District of Municipality of Muskoka has rigorous municipal programs to address waste treatment and landfill sites; these threats have been minimized over the years.
Waste Disposal Systems - Based on the standards established by the Sierra Legal Defence Fund, Muskoka’s Sewage Treatment Plants would receive a grade of A + similar to the grade given to Calgary because all the sewage treatment plants have UV disinfection, or equivalent, added to the 100% tertiary treatment. 14 Private waste disposal systems also meet a relatively high standard with all municipalities undertaking septic system re-inspection programs.
Solid Waste Disposal – There are groundwater monitoring program around waste transfer sites, landfill sites, and septage lagoons to ensure groundwater sources are not contaminated from these facilities. Where groundwater has been contaminated due to historic activities, Muskoka has acquired the groundwater rights have been acquired by the municipality.
Land Use Controls -Through the development process, sites that might have contaminated soils have been identified and are required to be cleaned before new development can proceed. Several sites have already been rehabilitated and include such historic uses as old tannery sites, saw mills and gas stations.
Several municipalities have begun to develop Source Protection Plans to protect municipal drinking water sources as required under the new Clean Water Act. As threats are identified or verified, action will be taken to reduce any threat on drinking water source.
There is no regulated approach to the protection of private drinking water sources.
Georgian Bay Drinking Water Sources – Binational.net is a collaboration between the United States Environmental Protection Agency and Environment Canada, to provide a single window on joint Great
13 Well Aware is a provincially sponsored program that provides individuals information, tools and resources about installing, operating and maintaining private well-based water sources. 14 Sierra Legal Defence Fund, National Sewage Report Card III, September 2004
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Lakes programs. This initiative is underway, with postings of several binational programs and reports. The State of the Great Lakes Ecosystem Conference (SOLEC) is a forum at which reports on binational programs are presented and discussed. The State of the Great Lakes 2005 was released at the 2006 conference. The State of the Great Lakes 2005 Report indicates that municipal systems are in good shape stating that the current municipal water treatment technologies ensure the high quality of the drinking water. 15
Aquatic Habitat
Fish Habitat
There is a belief that key fish populations across Ontario, like lake trout, have been degraded. The extent of the damage, however, cannot be assessed objectively because the required data are not available. Much of these data come from case studies instigated in response to a perceived problem. Such data have enhanced the understanding of the stressors that impact fish populations, but they are not very useful in addressing questions about the overall condition of the fish resource. 16 For this reason, the discussion below is primarily qualitative.
Inland lakes - In 2005-06, Stanley Sutey of Accipiter Fish & Wildlife Services undertook a series of studies on fish species in Lake of Bays. From November 2005 to May 2006, he studied the spawning behaviour of the native species of brook trout and rainbow smelt, and the introduced species of northern pike. His results indicated that the native species had likely declined while the introduced species appeared to be reproducing and increasing in numbers.
The decline in both brook trout and rainbow smelt is likely a result of the destruction to spawning habitat by such activities as poor logging practices and gravel extraction near streams, dredging and filling within watercourses and a general reduction of ground water feeding streams. 17 These stresses are general in nature and can be assumed to impact fish resources in other inland lakes.
Lake Trout – Lake trout are a top predator in many of the lakes in Muskoka/Haliburton/Parry Sound. As a top predator, they are an important component of the food web and act as an indicator of the health of the aquatic system. It is widely held that if the top of the food chain (or web) is healthy then all the components leading to that top predator must also be in a healthy condition.
In total, thirty-two (32) lakes in the watershed are managed for lake trout. Lake trout are found in lakes as shallow as Pine and Tasso Lakes, which are less than 20 metres in depth, to very deep lakes like Lake Joseph, which has a 90 metre deep hole in the northern part of the lake. More commonly, lake trout lakes in Muskoka range in depth from 30 to 60 metres.
An indicator of the health of the lake trout resource is the number of lakes that are stocked. Stocking is done when a lake does not supply enough natural reproduction to support a healthy population. Currently twelve lakes in the Muskoka River Watershed are being stocked on a put-grow-take basis; meaning that little or no natural reproduction is occurring. One lake (Lake Muskoka) is stocked supplementally, meaning that some natural reproduction is occurring. When calculated by surface area, the majority of the lake trout fishery in the watershed is supported entirely (56%) or partly (31%, Lake Muskoka) by natural reproduction. 18
15 Binational.net, State of the Great Lakes 2005 – Drinking Water Report. ISBN 0-662-41480-2, September 2006. 16 Lest, N.P., Dunlop, W.I. Monitoring the State of the Lake Trout Resource: A Landscape Approach. In Boreal Shield Watersheds: Lake Trout Ecosytems in a Changing Environment ed. By. J.M. Gunn, R.J. Steedman, and R.A. Ryder. Lewis Publishers, 2004. 17 Sutey, Stanley, Lake of Bays Brook Trout Spawning Observations, 2005. 18 Steve Scholten, Fisheries Biologist – Parry Sound District, Bracebridge Area Office, pers. com.
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On the other hand, Mary, Fairy and Vernon lakes that have supported healthy lake trout populations in the past, are now stocked because they do not currently support significant natural reproduction despite most aspects of their habitat being good to excellent for lake trout. Ecosystem changes caused by the introduction of exotic species such as smelt and the spiny water flea ( Bythrotrephes) may be a reason for this decline. 19
The nine other lakes currently stocked are generally small lakes with naturally limited areas of suitable juvenile habitat. Five are believed to have had natural populations that have been lost. Two have introduced populations. The origin of two populations is unknown. Without stocking, these lakes would only be able to sustain very limited fishing effort. 20
Georgian Bay fishery – As with many of the inland lake situations, Georgian Bay is experiencing multiple ecological stressors and is in a state of change. Georgian Bay has more extensive shallow water fish communities as compared to Lake Huron proper. This means that there tend to be more warm and cool water species.
Over the past few decades, there have been some improvements in the Georgian Bay fishery along with some negative trends. The abundance of large and small mouth bass is improving with warmer water, which can be directly linked to climate change. Northern pike, however, is in decline as a result of lower water levels and the subsequent drying of coastal wetlands. Round Gobi, an invasive species that may pose a serious threat to aquatic ecosystems displacing native fish and destroying local fisheries is now proliferating in the Severn Sound area. However, there is now a naturally reproducing population of lake trout in the Bay, which is a good news story.
Biologist on Georgian Bay are starting to see a shift in nutrients from the open water to the shore area as zebra and quagga mussels access the offshore nutrient and bring it to the near shore area. This transfer of nutrients results in higher phosphorus levels in the shallow near shore area and may lead to increases in algae blooms and further negatively impact both the near-shore and off-shore fishery.
With all these changes, it is unclear as to the change in biodiversity on the Bay. There is no existing baseline, as biodiversity was not monitored in the past. It appears that some areas have seen an increase in biodiversity while, where species like the round gobi have been introduced, biodiversity has probably decreased. 21
Shoreline Habitat
Shoreline vegetation protects waterbodies from nutrients and toxic chemicals that can be carried into the lake and contribute to water quality issues. Native vegetation is an important component of a lake system and provides habitat (for both aquatic and terrestrial animals), stormwater management, water purification and visual beauty.
The District of Muskoka has undertaken shoreline land use surveys on thirty-three (33) lakes across Muskoka. These surveys indicate that the natural shoreline buffer is often very narrow with significantly altered vegetative areas behind. Natural shoreline areas include wetlands, deciduous or coniferous forests and natural beaches, amongst others. Altered shoreline areas include man-made beaches, lawns, and hardened shorelines, amongst others.
Based on five (5) years of data, the average amount of shoreline left in a natural state around a lake is between 81 and 100%. However, behind that narrow vegetated area and within sixty-six feet (66’) of the water, the vegetation in the yard area is often significantly altered. On average about 45% of the yard-
19 Ibid 20 Ibid 21 Liskauskas, Arunus Lake Huron Fish Assessment Unit, Ministry of Natural Resources, Owen Sound. Pers. Com.
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area is made up of such features as a thinned forest with little shrub or undergrowth, lawn, road or other types of landscaping. The overall weighted average is 31% altered and 69% left naturally vegetated. The level of disturbance, however, ranges from 5% to 75% altered, which means that 95% to 25% of the area has been left in a natural state.
In order to provide the highest level of protection for our waterbodies, as ecological and development pressures increase, wider and more robust shoreline buffers should be encourage. Over time, yard-areas between the residence and the water should be re-vegetated providing more opportunity for nature to adjust.
Stewardship Activities
Lake Associations
Stewardship is key to protecting the health and natural attributes of our water resources. Only when the people that live on the lake take responsibility for their lake will the natural systems of the area be afforded appropriate levels of respect and protection. Lake stewardship can consist of many activities such as the development of lake plans, local education programs, monitoring, and remedial programs.
Lake Plans - Lake planning is a process, undertaken by lake residents, to identify the special character of their lake and to put in place a strategy to protect the high quality of life they currently enjoy.
People are now realizing that lakes, like all ecosystems, have limits and that if a lake’s capacity is exceeded because of overdevelopment, the combined effects of pollutants and other pressures will cause a degraded environment from both an ecological and aesthetic point of view. In general, the way a site is developed and managed will have a significant influence on the health of the lake and watershed.
Lakes have their own unique physical, biological, chemical and geographical landscape characteristics, which are reflected in local communities. The goal of lake planning is to identify, protect and restore the natural (chemical and biological), physical and social integrity of the lake’s ecosystem. Lake management is not so much about managing natural resources, as it is about managing the human activity that affects these resources. 22
Currently, in the watersheds over fifteen (15) lakes have or are currently developing lake plans. This is a significant increase in lake level planning since the 2004 report card. Once a lake has developed a lake plan, stewardship programs and other implementation activities generally follow as associations work at achieving their stated goals and objectives.
Stewardship Programs - Stewardship programs are lake specific, action-oriented programs that target specific issues. They may include education programs such as a dock-to-dock programs or a series of community lectures that address local concerns. The objective is to educate lake residents on topics of interest to the lake and to encourage behavioural change to lessen the human impact on the lake system.
A stewardship program may also involve lake monitoring. A monitoring program can include sampling for water chemistry, bacteria, benthic macroinvertebrates, or a host of terrestrial indicators like tree health, salamanders or lichens. By getting to know the lake and shore area first hand, many people gain a new and deeper understanding of the importance and value of the resource they own and share with both other people and the rest of nature. In the watershed, all large lakes and many of the medium and small lakes carry out annual stewardship programs. The District of Muskoka now assists 20 lake associations with an ecosystem monitoring program.
22 For more information on lake planning visit http://www.lakeplan.com/ or contact the Huntsville Lakes Council for a copy of their document entitled A Template & Manual – Developing a Lake Plan for Your Lake.
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Municipal Action
To be successful, stewardship has to be lake based; however, municipalities can play a significant role through the many powers and responsibilities they have under the municipal act, planning act, building code act and others. Specifically, all municipalities within the watersheds implement a septic re- inspection program, ensuring that private systems meet current standards and function properly. New planning policy that incorporates restrictive development policy around lakes for both new development and redevelopment has also recently been approved in Muskoka.
All municipalities participate in the Muskoka Watershed Council and work cooperatively to identify watershed issues and develop coordinated remedial strategies, where appropriate. Recently, several municipalities have renaturalized urban park shorelines providing a local example of a remedial action that can be implemented on private property.
Areas where additional municipal action could be focused include urban stormwater management and greater emphasis on lake specific management concerns.
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Our Water – Summary (B+)
Activity Comment Grade
Recreational Water Quality A-
1. Over 50% of lakes have naturally low total phosphorus levels and will generally not support excessive algae growth. 2. On average, lakes have slightly more phosphorus today than undeveloped levels. However, over the last twenty years, phosphorus in over 60% of lakes has remained constant or has decreased. 3. Development does not appear to be the driver in increases in phosphorus levels. • Nutrient Enrichment 4. Of a total of 183 lakes in Muskoka with data, 142 lakes A- meet the stringent local water quality standard. Of the 41 lakes that do not meet this standard: a. 21 lakes have phosphorus levels that will not generally support algae blooms. b. 16 lakes have a decreasing trend in phosphorus levels. 5. 47 lakes (26%) have a long-term phosphorus average of less than the predicted phosphorus level if the lake was undeveloped.
1. Water clarity has remained the same or improved on 90% of lakes. • Water Clarity A 2. Only one lake is an anomaly having low DOC and low Secchi depth readings.
• Algae 1. Insufficient data. -
1. Generally at natural background levels. • Bacteria 2. Some highly developed areas may experience higher A- concentrations.
1. Real improvement has been realized over the last decade. • Acid Deposition B 2. Annual load has not been reduced enough that all lakes in the watershed will recover.
Drinking Water A-
1. Rigorous training of staff. • Municipal Water 2. Extensive monitoring of contaminants. A 3. No exceedances of contaminants.
1. Shoreline policy protects surface water sources. 2. Septic re-inspection program protects wells and surface • Private Systems A- water. 3. A ‘Well Aware’ program would help private homeowners.
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Activity Comment Grade
1. Existing policy in Muskoka Official Plan protects municipal intakes from incompatible uses. • Municipal Source 2. All waste disposal plants have tertiary treatment and A- Water Protection most have UV disinfectant. 3. Source protection plans are to be developed .
1. There is no comprehensive program to address source water protection for private systems. 2. Municipalities have implemented septic re-inspection • Private Source programs. B Water Protection 3. Significant areas of Crown land provide watershed level protection for sources of drinking water. 4. Regulation requires rehabilitation of contaminated sites prior to redevelopment.
Aquatic Habitat B
1. Significant human related damage has occurred to various fish habitats on inland lakes. 2. Increased human stress is impacting lake trout habitat • Fish Populations and including stocking practices, fishing pressures and C Habitat development. 3. The Georgian Bay ecosystem is under change and not stable. The introduction of invasive species has stressed the Severn Sound Area. 1. On average 31% of the area between the lake and the cottage is altered. • Shoreline Habitat 2. Still experiencing dramatic loss of shoreline vegetation A- on individual lots although some landowners are starting to re-naturalize shorelines. Stewardship Activities A-
1. Over 15 lakes have or are developing lake plans. 2. All large and many moderate and small lake associations • Lake Associations undertake monitoring programs. B+ 3. The District of Muskoka assists over 20 lake associations with ecosystem monitoring.
1. Planning documents encourage large setbacks and maintenance of vegetation. 2. Policy to address the impact of urban areas on surface water resources is required. • Municipal Action A- 3. All municipalities participate in local stewardship programs and sit on the Muskoka Watershed Council. 4. Several municipalities have taken action to improve urban shorelines.
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Bibliography
1. Binational.net, State of the Great Lakes 2005 – Drinking Water Report. ISBN 0-662-41480-2, September 2006. 2. Canadian Wildlife Service, Ontario Region, Acid Rain, Effects on Lakes and Birds and Beyond http://www.on.ec.gc.ca/wildlife_e.html 3. District of Muskoka Planning and Economic Development Department, 2006 Lake System Health Monitoring Program, Year End Report and Data Report, October 2006. 4. Herman Clemens, Director of Public Works, pers, com. 5. Lest, N.P., Dunlop, W.I. Monitoring the State of the Lake Trout Resource: A Landscape Approach. In Boreal Shield Watersheds: Lake Trout Ecosytems in a Changing Environment ed. By. J.M. Gunn, R.J. Steedman, and R.A. Ryder. Lewis Publishers, 2004. 6. Liskauskas, Arunus Lake Huron Fish Assessment Unit, Ministry of Natural Resources, Owen Sound. Pers. Com. 7. Paterson, A.M., Cumming, B.F., Smol, J.P., Hall, R.I. Marked Recent Increases of Colonial Scaled Chrysophytes in Boreal Lakes: Implications for the Management of Taste and Odour Events . In Freshwater Biology, 2004, 49, 199-207 8. Phair, C. Henson, B.L., Brodribb, K.E., Great Lakes Conservation Blueprint for Aquatic Biodiversity, 2005. 9. Schiefer, K. and Schiefer, K, Water Quality Report 2005, Township of Georgian Bay, GBA Foundation, December 2005. and LURA consulting, Muskoka Lakes Association, Water Quality Initiative, Summary report 2005, Monitoring Program, 2005. and Cumming D, Lake of Bays Association 2004-2005 Data, unpublished data and Jim Marshall Peninsula Lake Data, 2004 – 2005 unpublished. 10. Scholten, Steve, Fisheries Biologist – Parry Sound District, Bracebridge Area Office, pers. com. 11. Sierra Legal Defence Fund, Waterproof II – Canada’s Drinking Water Report Card, October 2006 12. Sierra Legal Defence Fund, National Sewage Report Card III, September 2004 13. Sutey, Stanley, Lake of Bays Brook Trout Spawning Observations, 2005.
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Air quality impacts both human and watershed health. Deterioration in air quality as a result of industrial emissions from the Ohio Valley as well as our own increased vehicle use and increased use of fossil fuels for electrical generation has impacted the quality of all life in Muskoka. Some unfamiliar terms may be clarified in the Glossary at the back of the report.
Indicators of the quality of the air in the Watershed include:
1) Air Quality Readings a) Reduce peak ground-level ozone (O 3) levels to less than 50 (defined as good to very good) b) Reduce peak fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) readings to less than 22 (defined as good to very good) c) Achieve zero air quality advisories annually
2) Transboundary Air Pollution a) Reduce all transboundary components of smog to below critical levels b) Reduce transboundary sulphur emissions to achieve acid deposition concentrations below critical load levels
Background
The key components of air quality monitored by governments include:
• Ground level ozone (O 3) • Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) • Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) • Several specific chemicals including nitrogen oxide (NO x), sulphur dioxide (SO 2), and carbon monoxide (CO).
Volatile organic compounds combine with nitrogen oxide in the presence of sunlight to create ozone, a well-known health hazard for all forms of life. Fine particulate matter is a proven persistent respiratory irritant for people and likely for all animals that breath air. Nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide combine with oxygen and water vapour to produce acids that make rain acidic. It has damaged much of our aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems for the past many years, although there has been some reductions during the past few years. Carbon monoxide is poisonous for all life. Since the industrial revolution, concentrations of all these pollutants have increased dramatically.
In the early 1980’s air quality monitoring became more standardized and comprehensive. Since that time both Canada and the United States have taken measures to curb emissions, however, there has been only a slight improvement in air quality over that time period. A more aggressive approach is required if real improvement in air quality is to be realized.
The National State of the Environment Report on air quality provides information on ground level ozone levels (O 3), and its chemical reactants: nitrogen oxide (NO x) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), as 23 well as fine particulate matter PM 2.5.
Ground-level ozone levels have not changed significantly across Canada since 1980 and tend to be higher east of the Manitoba/Ontario border. Levels are heavily dependent on the season, with the highest levels occurring in the warmer months. The overall rating for urban air quality in Canada in 2000 was ‘no change to a slight improvement’ over the 1990 to 2000 reporting period. This rating was based on
23 Environment Canada, State of the Environment, Infobase, Air Quality http://www.ec.gc.ca/soer- ree/English/headlines/ind3.cfm AIR changes in ozone ranging from an improvement of 3% to a deterioration of 12% in various locations across the country since 1990. In general, levels of ozone in eastern Canada remain above the Canada- wide Standard of 65ppb. 24 (see figure 1)
Locally, the Parry Sound area stands out as having peak daily ozone readings of 85 to 95 parts per billion (ppb). This is higher than the surrounding area which tends to have peak levels in the 75 to 85 ppb range. All of which are above the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb. 25 Hourly peak ozone levels in both locations can exceed 100 ppb. 26
Figure 1: National Ground Level Ozone (Source Environment Canada)
As seen in Figure 2 below, ambient levels of several other important pollutants have dropped over the last 10 years in urban areas. Meanwhile, emissions of volatile organic compounds from all sources have not shown an improvement (Figure 4). Changes in monitoring methods for fine particulates (PM 2.5 ) make it difficult to determine historical trends, but the data available do show that many areas record daily levels that can lead to adverse health effects (Figure 3). In all cases, annual averages do not highlight the peaks in contaminants experienced during the warm summer months. For example, the annual average reading for PM 2.5 at both the Parry Sound and Dorset air quality station is below 5 ppb, however, peak readings can exceed 70 ppb for short periods of time.
24 ibid 25 ibid 26 Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Air Ontario website http://www.airqualityontario.ca/ 29
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Figure 2: Air Pollutant Levels for Key Parametres (Source Environment Canada)
Figure 3: Levels of Fine Particulate (Source Environment Canada)
Figure 4: Volatile Organic Compound Levels (Source Environment Canada)
30
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Air Quality Readings
Components of air pollution come from various sources including point sources such as industry and coal-fires generation plants, mobile sources such as most forms of transportation, and natural sources such as forest fires. Although much of the air pollution that impacts this region comes from the United States a significant portion of that source is generated by fuel manufacturing, transportation of consumer goods and electricity generation that are used locally. Therefore, local actions to reduce electricity use and consumption of goods will reduce the demand for and the need to produce these goods and services.
Air quality readings are reported daily by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment (MOE) through the Air Quality Ontario site at www.airqualityontario. The Air Quality Index (AQI) is an indicator of air quality, based on hourly pollutant measurements of some or all of the six most common air pollutants: sulphur dioxide, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, total reduced sulphur compounds, carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter (see Table 1 for a description of which air pollutants are measure at each station). The critical pollutant in our watersheds is ozone and occasionally PM 2.5 .
An Air Quality Index (AQI) value below 32 is considered relatively good and does not impact health significantly. Within the range of 32 to 49 (moderate category), there may be some adverse effects on very sensitive people, and values in the 50 to 99 range (poor category), may cause adverse health effects for both humans and other animals and significant damage to vegetation and property to statues, buildings and gravestones. An AQI value of 100 or more (very poor category) may cause adverse effects on a large proportion of those exposed. 27
The MOE issues Smog Alerts (either Smog Watch or Smog Advisory) when poor air quality is expected. A Smog Watch is issued when there is a 50% likelihood of AQI readings above 50 within the next three days. A Smog Advisory is issued when it is almost a certainty that such conditions will occur within 24 hours or already exist. 28
The watersheds of interest to the Muskoka Watershed Council are located on the eastern shores of Georgian Bay of Lake Huron. This geographic position is critical to the air quality of the region because much of the polluted air comes from the United States.
Air quality for the Muskoka watersheds can be determined by measurements made at Parry Sound, Barrie and Dorset. The readings from these stations have been compared to readings from North Bay, Sudbury and North Toronto to provide a comparison and establish a context for the local data. (Please see Table 1 for what data are available.)
Table 1 Provincial Air Monitoring Stations
Station AQI ( since) O3 PM 2.5 NO 2 CO SO 2 Barrie Y(2001) T T T T T Parry Sound S(2001) T T Dorset S(2000) T T North Bay Y( 2000) T T T Sudbury Y(2000) T T T T T North Toronto Y( 2000) T T T Y – year round measurements NO 2 – nitrogen dioxide S – Seasonal measurements (May 1 to September 30) CO – carbon monoxide O3 – Ground level ozone SO 2 – sulphur dioxide PM 2.5 – fine level particulate matter T – Taken
27 Air Quality Ontario website, http://www.airqualityontario.com/ 28 ibid 31
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The prime reason for issuing an Air Quality Advisory in Muskoka/Haliburton/Parry Sound is for elevated levels of ozone. As an example 97% of days when advisories were issued were because of elevated levels of ozone. As temperatures rise in the summer, nitrogen oxide (NO x) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) react in the presence of sunlight to form ozone, which is why poor air quality is usually a summer phenomena although it is becoming a more frequent winter event. The provincial air quality readings for Toronto, North Bay, Sudbury and Barrie verify this pattern and indicate that the air quality reading is generally good to very good for these sites from October to April unless there is an unusually warm period, in which case a reading of moderate may result.
The recreational area of Muskoka/Haliburton/Parry Sound has always been considered to be pristine, healthy and a good place to escape the dirty air of many of the urban areas to the south. In the early 1900’s people were sent to the Sanatorium in Gravenhurst to enjoy the fresh air and recover from tuberculosis. However, since the industrialization of southern Ontario and the Ohio Valley in the States this has been a myth. Locally, with steam trains and steam boats, excessive lumbering and industrial development in the early 1900’s, not to mention the pollutants that would have been carried into the watershed from more distant sources, local air quality has not been pristine for decades.
The current average summer air quality rating for the Muskoka/Parry Sound/Haliburton area is rated as good, with an average below 32. (See Table 2: Average Summer Air Quality Readings)
Table 2 Average Summer Air Quality Readings
Four-year Municipality 2003 2004 2005 2006 Average Barrie 24.7 25.7 28.1 25.9 25.8 Dorset 26 25.5 28.9 26.5 26.7 Parry Sound 26.2 26.8 27.7 26.2 26.7 North Bay 24.7 23.3 25.7 23.8 24.4 Sudbury 23.6 21.3 25.3 24.5 23.7 Toronto 28.5 26.3 30.2 26.2 27.8 Source: Ontario Ministry of the Environment
However, there are 4 to 10 air quality advisories a year representing 10 to 30 days each summer. These moderate to poor ratings suggest unhealthy conditions for 25 to 35% of the time during the summers since readings have been provided (2003 – 2006) by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. (See Table 3)
Table 3 indicates that while there is insufficient data to determine a long-term trend in readings, it does suggest that the readings at Dorset and Parry Sound, while marginally better than North Toronto, are more similar to our urban southern neighbours than the urban centres to the north.
Table 3: Percent of Summer AQI Readings Ranked Good and Moderate/Poor
Year Barrie Parry Sound Dorset North Bay Sudbury North Toronto % % % % % % % % % % % %
Good mod/poor Good mod/poor Good mod/poor Good mod/poor Good mod/poor Good mod/poor 2003 72 28 77 23 79 21 86 14 80 20 73 27 2004 83 17 75 25 82 18 85 15) 90 10 74 26 2005 78 22 69 31 63 37 73 27 77 23 64 36 2006 78 22 75 25 76 24 84 16 82 18 70 30 Source: Ontario Ministry of the Environment
32
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Ozone Levels (O 3)
Ozone levels in the watershed are generally below 32 ppb at most times of the year and are consider to contribute to good to very good air quality. However, peak readings over 100 can occur. Generally, these higher readings are experienced for short periods of time (several hours) during the summer months and generally result in air quality advisories. Ozone levels vary throughout the day with hourly readings indicating that higher ozone levels tend to be experienced later in the afternoon.
Table 4 Peak Ozone Readings in parts per billion (ppb)
Year Dorset Parry Sound 2001 95 116 2002 106 102 2003 81 103 2004 89 99 2005 100 104 2006 88 89 Source: Ontario Ministry of the Environment
Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 )
Like ozone, the level of fine particulate matter in the watershed is considered to be very good at most times of the year with an average reading below 10 ug/m 3. Peak readings, however, can range from 36 3 to 71 ug/m . In the Haliburton/Muskoka/Parry Sound area, episodes of high PM 2.5 tend to last for a few hours to a few days. This is in contract to areas to the south which can experience high levels of PM2.5 for weeks or even a full month in some cases. Although periods of elevated PM 2.5 are generally associated with periods of elevated levels of ozone, high PM 2.5 can also be associated with wood smoke during a temperature inversion in the winter months.
Table 5 3 Peak PM 2.5 Readings in micrograms per cubic metre (ug/m )
Year Dorset Parry Sound 2003 49 56 2004 47 45 2005 71 63 2006 38 36 Source: Ontario Ministry of the Environment
Transboundary Air Pollution
Smog Components
In June 2005, the Province of Ontario released a report entitled Transboundary Air Pollution in Ontario. This report identifies various components of air pollution and their origin. During widespread smog episodes, the report identifies that the United States contribution to ozone, excluding background levels, is expected to be as much as 90% in Ontario cities and towns on the northern shore of Lake Erie, the eastern shore of Lake Huron (Parry Sound on Georgian Bay) and in the extreme southwest near the United States border 29 .
Like Ozone, fine dust particles (measured as PM 2.5 ) can be transported many hundreds of kilometers from their sources. Neighbouring American states release approximately 28 times as much primary fine
29 Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Transboundary Air Pollution in Ontario, June 2005. 33
AIR particulate matter as does Ontario, mainly from on-road transportation and industrial sources 30 However, due to the distance of Muskoka/Haliburton/Parry Sound to the United States, PM 2.5 from the United States is not as significant for air quality as ozone emissions.
In the past few decades, improvements have been measured in the reduction of several components of air pollution. For example, Figure 5 illustrates a reduction in sulphur dioxide (SO 2) emissions to the year 2002, the last year for which data are available. This reduction has translated into a 23% reduction in 31 sulphate (SO 4) deposition across Ontario. A similar reduction has been recorded in the United States.
Figure 5: Sulphur Dioxide and Particulate Sulphate Concentrations 1990 – 2002
Source: Ontario Ministry of the Environments
Figure 6 demonstrates, however, that weather plays a dominant role in year-to-year variation in smog episodes in Ontario. Ozone exceedance days tend to correlate to hot temperature days. As a consequence, there are no apparent long-term trends in elevated regional ozone levels in Ontario over the past two decades. 32
In Muskoka, these provincial trends translate into a local level of air quality that is highly dependant on the pollutants carried into Canada with air masses flowing out of the United States. In particular, using the Canada-wide Standard for Ozone concentration, the Parry Sound area stands out as having peak readings of 85 to 95 parts per billion (ppb). This is higher than the surrounding area which tends to have peak levels in the 75 to 85 ppb range. All of which are above the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb. Air mass flows demonstrate that these higher concentrations are coming from the United States. A similar pattern, with higher readings in the Parry Sound area, is not seen for the Canada-wide standard for 33 PM 2.5 . At this point, there are no data indicating a change geographically or over time of these ozone and PM 2.5 levels.
30 Ibid. 31 ibid 32 ibid 33 ibid 34
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Although studies indicate that over 50% of smog causing ingredients flow into the watershed from the United States, the other 50% of the nitrogen oxide and VOC come from local sources. Addressing these local sources of pollutants is essential to ultimately achieve better air quality in the area. Recreational activity, transportation and electricity use are all key contributors to poor air quality. As with all Ontarians, we need to continue to improve the fuel efficiency of the cars we drive, find alternative methods of transportation, reduce our electricity use, and work toward a smaller global footprint.
Figure 6: Trends for Ozone Exceedance Days and “Hot Days” in Ontario (1990 – 2003)
Source: Ontario Ministry of the Environment
Acid Rain
Acid deposition, commonly referred to as acid rain, primarily results from the transformation of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide into dry or wet pollutants such as sulphuric acid and nitrous acid and ammonium nitrate. The sulphur compounds are the most significant pollutant in the watershed, therefore, the other compounds are not dealt with in this report.
The national indicator on acid rain shows that there was a 19% reduction in sulphur dioxide since 1990. 34 In December 2005, the Canadian Council of Ministers (federal and provincial) of the Environment (CCME) produced a five-year review of the Canada-Wide Acid Rain Strategy. Although CCME recognized that significant reductions in acid rain causing substances had been achieved by 2000, they realized that additional reductions were required to ensure that areas in eastern Canada that are particularly sensitive to acid deposition were meeting their critical loads.
In terms of acid rain, critical load is the amount of SO 4 deposition that an ecosystem can sustain without significant damage. The value is a function of the geology of the area and the ability of the ecosystem to buffer acid input. The watersheds of Muskoka are underlain by granite-gneisses bedrock that was formed during the Precambrian age (3.7 billion to 570 million years ago). Unlike the limestone region to the
34 Environment Canada, State of the Environment Report website, http://www.ec.gc.ca/soer-ree/English . 35
AIR south, granite does not contain any calcium or other minerals that buffer either terrestrial or aquatic ecosystems from acid rain.
The Canada-Wide Acid Rain Strategy for Post-2000 established new sulphur reduction targets and timelines. In it, Ontario undertook to reduce its previous target for SO 2 under the former Eastern Canada Acid Rain Program by 50% to 442.5 kilotonnes (kT) per year by 2015. The Province is now considering 35 advancing this timeline to 2010. By 2000, Ontario had reduced it SO 2 emissions by 33% from the baseline. 36
The result of these programs has been a reduction in acid rain in Muskoka over the last few decades. Figure 7 shows that SO 4 deposition rates in Muskoka have decreased from 20 - 25 kg/ha/yr in 1990-1994, to 15 - 20 kg/ha/yr from 1996-2000. Scientists indicate, however, that a further reduction to as low as 8 kg/ha/yr is required to ensure that critical load levels are achieved in this area. 37
Figure 7: Changes in Sulphate Deposition 1990-1994 to 1996-2000
Source: Ontario Ministry of the Environment
Government Action
Real change in air quality, or the results of emissions, is not detectable due to the lack of data. What can be measured are changes in pollutant sources and efforts to reduce key emissions. Governments are acting on air quality concerns to approach healthy levels and a concerted effort will be required from all levels of government along with behaviour and lifestyle changes from the public.
Federal Government
The proposed Clean Air Act, released in October 2006, is ineffective for reducing pollutants or green house gases. 38
35 Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, Five-year Review of The Canada-Wide Acid Rain Strategy for Post-2000 , December 2005. ISBN-10 1-896997 – 47 -3 36 Ibid 37 Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Transboundary Air Pollution in Ontario, June 2005. 38 Government of Canada, Environment Canada http://www.gc.ca/main_e.html 36
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Figure 8: Projected Reduction Targets
The act could be improved if reductions were based on total allowable emissions from all sources rather than just reductions in intensity from each individual source. A cap on total allowable emissions from all sources would make it possible to reach the ambitious projected targets displayed on Fig 10; but the act allows absolute levels to increase if higher levels of production occur. In April 2007, the Minister of the Environment indicated that he was not committed to bringing the bill back to the legislature for approval. Both David Suzuki and Al Gore chastised the minister responsible for the proposed act and Gore accused him of trying to mislead the public.
In May 2007, the government announced an accord with the United States to address the transboundary flow of fine particulate matter, but the flow of nitrous oxide and volatile organic compounds responsible for poor air quality in Muskoka was not addressed.
Province of Ontario
The Ontario government has an integrated approach for addressing air quality issues which includes leadership, promoting education and energy conservation, developing cleaner energy sources, improving public transit, reducing industrial emissions, supporting research and innovation, and protecting natural spaces. As a result of implementing these types of programs between the years 1990 and 2005, Ontario’s emissions of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide decreased by 45 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively. 39
The Environment Commissioner of Ontario’s (ECO) 2005/2006 report deals with air issues. While commending the Ministry of the Environment for reforming air quality rules for industry, the ECO cautions that the effectiveness of the reform will depend on the capacity of the Ministry to enforce compliance with new regulations. Because of reduced resources, the ministry is able to inspect only about 1-2% of industrial facilities a year. 40 The efforts of the provincial government should be monitored to determine the impact of proposed programs.
On the other hand, the government has postponed the closing of the Nanticoke coal-fired generation plant because alternatives are not in place and demand for electricity continues to grow. Installing scrubbers on fossil fuel plants along with encouraging conservation and renewable energy sources such
39 Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Fact Sheet Ontario Takes Action on Clean Air and Climate Change , June 2006. http://www.ene.gov.on.ca/envision/news/2006/062602fs.htm 40 CNW newsgroup Grave Consequences for Environmental Neglect, Warns Environmental Commissioner, website www.newswire.ca 37
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as wind and solar may be a better alternative to committing to the nuclear energy path that is currently occurring in Ontario.
Further improvements in Ontario’s air quality depend on the ability of the provincial and federal governments to negotiate stricter emission controls in the U.S. A foundation for any approach to our American neighbours in this regard will require strong political leadership along with demonstrating emission reductions. Continued monitoring and reporting air quality to the public is important to ensure the Ontario public is knowledgeable about the action required to protect the air we breathe.
United States
The United States passed the Clean Air Act in 1990. It regulates emissions that cause, smog, greenhouse gases and acid rain. Emissions in the States are much greater than in Canada. Although steps are being taken by the EPA and individual states to address various components of air pollution, there is no concerted effort to reduce the pollution coming from the industrialized areas of the States, which influences air quality in Central Ontario.
Local Actions
Much of the Provincial Air Quality plan will best be implemented at the local level by industries, municipalities, school boards, individuals and local non-government stewardship organizations. Programs that deal with energy reduction, transportation, public education, and greenhouse gas emissions should be locally based and supported if the necessary behavioural change is to be achieved. Local programs are beginning to be developed in many municipalities across the watershed and the local health unit has recently announced a pilot program in Gravenhurst to discourage idling. Local municipalities have been active in hydro generation for many years and continued support of this form of electricity generation will continue to support clean air.
Emerging Issues
Mercury
Mercury is a heavy metal found in soil, water and air. In Canada, airborne mercury comes primarily from coal-fired power plants in the United States and from Canadian metal smelting operations and incinerators. Mercury also has natural sources such as the weathering of bedrock and gaseous emissions from soils. It combines with other atoms to form a very toxic compound, methylmercury. It accumulates in all species, especially fish causing damage to the central nervous systems, reproductive failure among loons and river otters, and neurological and developmental damage in humans. Even very limited exposure to mercury may cause problems, such as learning disabilities in children. Women of childbearing age, pregnant women, children, and populations who depend on fish as a traditional food source are most at risk.
The Guide to Eating Sport Fish identifies restrictions for the eating of fish because of mercury contamination from most lakes in the watersheds of Muskoka. Based on a June 2005 report prepared for the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME), in October 2005, provincial and territorial environment ministers agreed to cut toxic mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants by 60 per cent in less than four years. Further monitoring of this commitment to determine its on-ground effect is required.
Winter Smog
Wood is used in more than 3 million Canadian homes as heat source. However, wood smoke reduces the quality of the air and can cause breathing difficulties and other health problems even at relatively low levels. In fact, residential wood burning is a major contributor to winter smog especially in rural areas.
38
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In a hot wood fire only carbon dioxide (CO 2), water and traces of Calcium, Magnesium and phosphorus compounds are emitted into the air. Where as, smoke from the incomplete combustion of wood contains a mix of hazardous particles and chemicals such as volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide. The severity of the resulting winter smog depends on fresh air moving in. On a cold winter night, when a temperature inversion occurs and lots of fires are dampened down to a slow smoky burn, these pollutants are trapped close to the ground and cause major rural residential smog. 41
Our Air – Summary (C)
Activity Comment Grade Air Quality Readings C-
1. O levels are above the Canada-wide • Ozone (O ) 3 D 3 standard.
1. Not a major cause of air quality • Fine Particulate Matter B advisories
1. There are 4 to 6 Air Quality advisories • Air Quality Index each year representing 10 to 30 days a D summer.
Transboundary Air Pollution C
1. Marginal improvement in ozone concentrations. • Smog Components D 2. Reduction in several other chemicals from the Ohio Valley (SO 4, SO 2).
1. Real reductions in sulphate have been achieved. • Acid Rain B 2. Deposition will remain above critical loads
41 Environment Canada, Clean Air On-line website, http://www.ec.gc.ca/cleanair-airpur/Winter_Smog- WSAFF4D58F-1_En.htm 39
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Bibliography
1. Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Fact Sheet Ontario Takes Action on Clean Air and Climate Change , June 2006. http://www.ene.gov.on.ca/envision/news/2006/062602fs.htm 2. Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Transboundary Air Pollution in Ontario, June 2005 3. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, Five-year Review of The Canada-Wide Acid Rain Strategy for Post-2000 , December 2005. ISBN-10 1-896997 – 47 -3 4. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, 2004-2005 Progress Report on the Canada- Wide Acid Rain Strategy for Post-2000, 2006. ISSN 1911-1541 5. Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Air Quality in Ontario 2004 , 2006. ISSN 1710-8128. 6. Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Georgian Bay Air Quality Study 2001 , September 2002. 7. Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Transboundary Air Pollution in Ontario, June 2005 http://www.ene.gov.on.ca/envision/techdocs/5158e_1.pdf 8. Air Quality Ontario website http://www.airqualityontario.com/ . 9. CTV.ca, Harper rolls Out First Part of Environment Plan, October 10, 2006 10. CNW newsgroup Grave Consequences for Environmental Neglect, Warns Environmental Commissioner, website www.newswire.ca 11. Environment Canada, State of the Environment website http://www.ec.gc.ca/soer-ree/English/ .
40
LAND
As people live and work, they impact and change the land which impacts the plants and animals in the watershed and the watershed’s ability to provide both ecosystem services and ecosystem functions. A variety of indicators will be used to identify present and potential stresses on the land and to evaluate the health of our terrestrial resources.
Indicators of the health of our terrestrial ecosystems include:
1. Protection of ecosystems and maintenance of natural areas a. Protection of a representative sample of all ecosystems. b. Protection of at least one area 10,000 ha or greater in both the Muskoka and Black/Severn river watersheds. c. Maintenance of 80% or greater natural cover in all sub-watersheds. d. Maintenance of blocks of land in each lake and river watershed that are 200 hectares or greater and have an interior forest with a 200 metre buffer. e. Establishment of a connected system of natural protected areas. 2. Reduction of hardened surfaces to a level where water is still available for plants and animals, and groundwater is replenished 3. Maintenance of 85% or greater naturally vegetated shorelines in non-urban areas 4. Protection of wetlands a. Evaluate all wetlands and wetland complexes that are 40 ha or greater. b. Protect all Provincially Significant Wetlands through Crown land regulation or Land Trust ownership. c. Protect all wetlands from incompatible uses.
Protection of Ecosystems and Natural Areas
Intact ecosystems are important for a variety of reasons; in particular, ecosystem services (benefit to man) and ecological function (benefit to nature) are identified as key attributes. Ecosystem services are defined as the provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting characteristics of natural areas, and more particularly as:
1. Provisioning – the ability of natural areas to provide resources such as food, clean water, and fiber for such needs as cloths (wool, cotton), furniture (wood, bamboo), and heat (wood, oil, gas). 2. Regulating – the ability of natural areas to provide such benefits as flood control, moderating climate, limiting the spread of disease, and improving air quality. 3. Cultural – the ability of natural areas to support spiritual rejuvenation, recreational activities and cultural values. 4. Supporting Services – the ability of natural areas to support nutrient cycling such as producing oxygen, binding carbon and fixing nitrogen.
Natural ecosystems and the plants and animals within them provide people with services that would be very difficult to duplicate. While it is hard to place an accurate monetary amount on ecosystem services, some of the financial values can be calculated. Many of these services are performed seemingly “free” yet are worth many trillions of dollars. For example, it is estimated that Canada’s boreal forest contributes $14.9 billion in forest products and an additional $5.4 billion in pest control by birds and $1.85 billion in net carbon sequestering annually. 42 In Muskoka, recent studies have valued the tourism sector at $220 million dollars a year. 43 In addition, it is estimated that the second home population contributes
42 Pembina Institute Counting Canada’s Natural Capital – Assessing the Real Value of Canada’s Boreal Ecosystems. http://www.borealcanada.ca/pdf/Boreal_Wealth_Report_Nov_2005.pdf 43 The District Municipality of Muskoka, Economic Profile, October, 2004. http://www.muskoka.on.ca/planningeconomic/Economic%20Profile.pdf .
41 LAND approximately $581 million dollars annually to the economy. 44 Both these sectors rely heavily on a healthy natural environment.
Although ecological services are how people interpret and value ecosystems and natural areas, maintaining ecological function is critical if we are to continue to benefit from these natural areas. Ecosystems are intricate and complicated and often a minor change in one part of the system can have a significant impact on another part. The long-term implications of change are not well understood. As climate change is starting to be experienced and studied, these inter-connections are becoming even more evident.
Each ecosystem is unique and fills a niche which supports a range of plants and animals. In order to ensure the wide range of both ecological services and functions in the future, a representative sample of all ecosystems within a connected and self-sustaining system is required.
The best and most efficient way to maintain ecological function is to maintain large undisturbed natural areas. Table 1 highlights the size of natural areas required to maintain key indicator species . Animal species are a good indicator of ecosystem condition and, therefore, its ability to function because they rely on the broad range of ecosystem functions to live and thrive. They integrate the values of natural cover, access to clean water and clean air in their everyday survival and are often more sensitive to ecosystem deterioration than people.
Table 1 Natural Area Requirements
Area Forest/Treed Swamp Marsh • Edge tolerant mammals (Squirrels) • Small populations of Muskrat • Common edge-tolerant birds (Blue Jay, • Edge-tolerant birds (Red-winged American Crow) Blackbird, Canada Goose, Mallard) 1 ha • A few birds may be associated with • Persistent and common mature trees (Black-capped Chickadee, herpetofauna (such as Green Frog Eastern Wood-Pewee) and Midland Painted Turtle)
• A very few common edge-tolerant birds • (Downy Woodpecker, Great Crested Similar species as above, but may 4 ha Flycatcher) also support Bullfrog • Eastern Chipmunk may be present
• Still dominated by edge-tolerant species; may have very small areas of interior • May support Marsh Wren, other 10 ha habitat supporting low numbers of waterfowl species moderately area-sensitive species (Hairy Woodpecker, White -breasted Nuthatch) • May be large enough to support some species of salamander • Similar marsh bird species as above, 30 ha • Small populations of edge-intolerant plus possibly Black Tern species (Winter Wren, Brown Creeper, Black-and-White Warbler)
44 The District Municipality of Muskoka, Second Home Study, September 2005. http://www.muskoka.on.ca/planningeconomic/2004%20Second%20Home%20Study.pdf 42
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Area Forest/Treed Swamp Marsh • A variety of area-sensitive species may be present; some will be absent if there is no nearby suitable habitat • • Still predominantly edge influenced, but Least Bittern may be present in 50 to 75 ha will support small populations of most marshes of this size forest bird species • Some will be absent if there is no nearby suitable habitat
• Forest-dependent bird species will still • Small numbers of diving ducks 100 to 400 ha be in low numbers and may be absent if possible (e.g., Redhead, there is no nearby suitable habitat Canvasback, Ruddy Duck)
• Suitable for almost all forest birds • All marsh species, although some 1,000 ha • Some forest-dependent mammals may still have small populations present, but most still absent
• Almost fully functional ecosystem, but may be inadequate for a few mammals • Fully-functional ecosystem 10,000 ha such as Gray Wolf and Bobcat (100,000 ha has been suggested as a minimum)
Using the species identified in Table 1 as indicators of ecological function, areas of 100 to 400 hectares are required throughout the watershed to support a wide range of animal species and to ensure that many of the provisioning and regulating ecological services are supported. In addition, some areas that are 10,000 hectares or greater are required to support larger mammals and the ecosystem services and functions they require.
Cultural services can also be impacted by a reduction in natural areas. Studies over the last ten years have demonstrated that some visitors or tourists avoid visiting resorts because they have experienced or anticipate overcrowding leading to their reduced enjoyment of natural areas. 45 These large natural areas also support other economic and cultural activities such as forestry, hunting and fishing and are an important foundation to the Muskoka economy and quality of life.
Natural areas can best be protected through provincial and national parks, Crown land nature reserves, and private land trust holdings. Areas can also be protected through provincial and municipal land use policy and private stewardship, but these tools do not guarantee the same level of long-term protection. Although these two levels of protection can work together to create a mosaic of high-level ecosystems, it is recommended that at a minimum, the land area required to maintain a natural areas strategy be incorporated into the top level of protection.
Although over 50% of the natural land-base within the watershed is protected either as Crown land, or as a provincial or national park, it is not evenly distributed and not all ecosystems are represented in protected areas with many having very low representation. Specifically, protected areas are geographically skewed to the far eastern and western portions of the watershed with far less protection in the central portion where many of the ecological services (clean water, flood control, air quality, recreation areas, carbon sequestering) are required to ensure a high quality of life for area residents. The location and amount of protected areas coincides with areas of Crown land in the Townships of Algonquin
45 Eugenio-Martin Juan Luis, Monitoring the Congestion Level of Competitive Destinations with Mixed Logit Models, Chritel Dehaan Tourism and Travel Research Institute, University of Nottingham, 2004. 43
LAND
Highlands and Georgian Bay and the Black/Severn River watershed, and is influenced by Algonquin Provincial Park and Queen Elizabeth II Provincial Park.
Over the last two years the Muskoka Heritage Foundation, in collaboration with the Muskoka Watershed Council, District of Muskoka and the Ministry of Natural Resources has developed the Watershed Inventory Project which uses existing satellite, air photo, and field level data to undertake a Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis of the natural areas and level of protection. The results of this project were used to evaluate several aspects of the health of the land component of our watershed.
The Watershed Inventory Project established three categories of protected areas as follows:
• Level 1 protected areas are primarily provincial and national parks and provide full protection of natural areas through strictly regulated planning policies and covers about 19.4% of the watershed’s land-base. This level of protection contains about 76% provincial parks, 22% conservation reserves, 1% National Parks and less than 1% private land trust properties.
• Level 2 protected areas are primarily Crown land and provide a high level of protection through policies and agreements with a variety of users, including private landowners, industry and/or other agencies. Level 2 protected areas cover 32.8% of the watershed’s land-base (excluding those areas in level 1 protection that also fall under level 2 categories) and include Crown land (making up 93%), Muskoka Heritage Areas (7%), the Muskoka Heritage Trust easements (0.01%), and Provincially Significant Wetlands (1%).
• Level 3 protected areas are privately owned and are protected from incompatible land-use decisions related to development through municipal official plan policies and comprehensive zoning by-laws. There is little protection for significant natural features outside the development approvals process. Level 3 protected areas cover about 6.7% of the watershed’s natural land- base. These areas include confirmed Areas of Natural and Scientific Interest (2%) and all wetlands that have not been identified as being provincially significant (98%).
For the purpose of the report card, level 3 protected areas were not included in the evaluation because there is limited protection to these areas outside a formal development approval process. Figure 1 illustrates areas of the watersheds protected by level 1 and level 2 type protection.
44
Figure 1: Protected Areas
45
Watershed Evaluation a. Protection of a representative sample of all ecosystems
As discussed above, in order to ensure the long-term health of the watersheds in Muskoka, a percentage of all ecosystems should be protected. As highlighted in Table 2, currently 77 out of 157 ecosystems have less than 30% of their area represented in a protected area. This represents about 50% of Muskoka’s ecosystems. Figure 2 illustrates that most unprotected ecosystems are located within the central portion of Muskoka.
Table 2 Percent of Ecosystems within Protected Areas (to be updated)
% of Ecosystem Area Number of % of Ecosystem Area Number of Protection Ecosystems Protection Ecosystems 0% protected 21 50.01-60 15 .01-10 21 60.01-70 8 10.01-20 20 70.01-80 11 20.01-30 15 80.01-90 10 30.01-40 19 90.01-99.9 3 40.01-50 12 100% Protected 2 Source: Watershed Inventory Project
Although much of the central portion of the watershed is still naturally vegetated, it is fragmented and vulnerable to development or other forms of degradation. The Watershed Inventory Project identifies this area as highly degraded and natural connections that allow the flow of species across a broad geographic range are limited. Remediation efforts through land acquisition or habitat improvement are required to enhance ecological values. Figure 2 illustrates the location of ecosystems in the watershed that have less than 30% protection. Action should be taken through land stewardship, ownership by a land trust, or development policy to increase protection of these vulnerable ecosystems. Priority for protection can be established based on local values and interests and based on the evaluation recently completed through the Watershed Inventory.
46
Figure 2: Ecosystems that are less than 30% Protected
47 LAND
b. Protection of at least one area of 10,000 hectares or greater In both the Muskoka and Black/Severn Watersheds
Large natural areas support nutrient cycling like the production of oxygen and the binding of carbon. They also provide habitat for large mammals, help moderate climate, and limit the spread of disease. Resource extractive industries such as forestry, and the essential tourism and second home sector of the area’s economy also rely on large natural areas. Figure 3 illustrates that, while located outside the District of Muskoka, there are two 10,000 ha or greater areas in both the Muskoka River Watershed and the Black/Severn River Watershed. These areas are part of provincial parks and Crown land and already benefit from a high level of protection. All private land portion of these areas should be considered as core areas through a natural heritage strategy.
Figure 3: Protection of Patches 10,000 Ha or Larger 48
LAND c. Maintenance of 80% or greater natural cover in all sub-watersheds
Regardless of ownership or level of protection, large areas of all watersheds should remain in natural cover in order to support the provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem functions described earlier. At a landscape level, based on satellite and air photography techniques, all major watersheds in the Muskoka and Black/Severn River Watersheds are currently comprised of over 80% natural cover and many have over 90% natural cover (see Figure 3 and Chart 1). Natural cover is defined as forest, grassland, rock, wetland and water. This landscape level of coverage is a good indicator of watershed health and is important to maintain.
Figure 4: Land Cover
49
Chart 1: Percent Natural Cover
Percent natural terrestrial ecosystems, water, and non-natural types for each quaternary watershed (Black/Severn River Watershed).
100%
80% Non Natural 60% Water
40% Percentage (%) Percentage Natural
20%
0% ec_13 ec_14 ec_15 ec_16 ec_17 ec_18 Quaternary watershed within area of interest
Percent natural terrestrial ecosystems, water, and non-natural types for each quaternary watershed (Muskoka River Watershed). 100%
80%
Non_Natural 60% Water
40% Natural Percentage(%)
20%
0% eb_02 eb_03 eb_04 eb_05 eb_06 eb_07 eb_08 eb_09 eb_10 eb_11 eb_12 eb_13 eb_14 eb_15 eb_16 Quaternary watershed within area of interest
Source: Watershed Inventory Project
On closer analysis, however, it is evident that roads, development and utility corridors fragment much of the forested area of the watersheds. These smaller, often disconnected, parcels cannot always provide the same level of ecological services and functions provided by larger, connected natural features. In particular, there are significant local areas that have been severely degraded and do not support the full range of ecological services and functions (see Figure 5). For a more detailed discussion of built-up areas, see the section on hardened surfaces.
In addition to existing fragmentation, a large portion of each watershed is vulnerable to vegetation loss because of development pressures. In order to maintain the character of Muskoka and benefit from the ecological benefits of natural systems it is recommended that at least 80% of each major watershed should be left in natural cover. In order to maintain this standard as development occurs, municipalities will need to focus development in urban areas while, at the same time, develop an urban green strategy. Rural and waterfront development will also have to occur within a sustainable framework that supports the maintenance of healthy natural ecosystems. This may be accomplished through municipal land use policy, private land stewardship initiatives, or land acquisition by local land trusts. A focus on developing these growth strategies and sustainable development plans and programs is required.
50
Figure 5: Road Fragmentation
51
d. Maintenance of blocks of land in each lake and river watershed that are 200 hectares or greater and have an interior forest with a 200 metre buffer
Moving from a landscape level analysis down to a regional level, the fragmentation of natural areas becomes more evident. The Muskoka and Black/Severn River watersheds are made up of the smaller watersheds of a variety of lakes, and large and small rivers. The health of each of these smaller watersheds needs to be looked at individually and each one requires natural areas within them to support local processes that serve the needs of the local residents for the many ecosystem services and functions they provide.
There are two issues to be addressed. First, in order to ensure that there are sufficient natural areas to support watershed processes within each of these smaller watershed, there should be at least one 200 ha parcel with an interior forest protected by a 200-metre buffer. Second, these core areas need to be protected through private or public means including land trusts, stewardship agreements and public ownership. It is these protected areas that function as core natural areas and ensure the long-term health of the watershed.
The Crown land portion of the watersheds ensures that many of the smaller watersheds have intact areas of 200 hectares or greater. In fact, many of the sites are part of Crown land nature reserves and are afforded a reasonable level of protection. Figure 6, however, illustrates that there is a large portion of the central area of the watershed that does not have natural areas that are 200 hectares or greater. In order to maintain the ecological function of the watersheds, remediation of degraded areas should occur in such a way that existing natural areas are enhanced and larger blocks are created.
52
Figure 6: Natural Core Patches that are 200 ha or Greater
53
e. Establishment of a connected system of natural protected areas
There is no established comprehensive system of protected areas within the watersheds. The large areas of natural cover identified above are a direct result of remnant areas of Crown land; the foresight of the provincial and federal governments to establish provincial and national parks, and nature reserves; and the limited and focused private land development activity over the last 150 years. The pressure for development is and will continue to increase in the next few decades. Steps need to be taken now to protect the natural values of the watershed to ensure that they do not become highly fragmented and require considerable time and resources to remediate in the future.
Muskoka still enjoys many areas that are in good condition and have very high ecological significance. These areas should form the base, or core, of a protected areas strategy. Muskoka is a mosaic of Crown and patent land and land managers responsible for both classifications of land must work together to develop a comprehensive approach to the protection of the area.
Figure 7 illustrates the protected areas within Muskoka. Protected areas are defined as federal and provincial parks, Crown lands, provincial nature reserves, provincially significant wetlands, and land trust lands. The local watersheds benefit from large areas of Crown land and eleven (11) provincial parks, including a large portion of both Algonquin and Queen Elizabeth II Wildlands Provincial parks and one national park. The two large provincial parks and the Crown land provide a foundation for the development of a comprehensive natural areas strategy, however, Figure 7 also illustrates that the central portion of the watershed and especially adjacent to highway 11, has very little protected area although it still supports many highly significant natural areas. A protected areas strategy needs to build on the strengths of the existing protected areas and encompass the core areas identified on Figure 7 in a connected manner that supports a healthy natural system.
54
Figure 7: Protected Areas
55
Reduce hardened surfaces to a level where water is still available for plants and animals, and groundwater is replenished
Stormwater runoff from built up areas is generated from a number of sources including residential areas, commercial and industrial areas, roads, highways and bridges. Essentially, any surface which does not have the capability to pond and infiltrate water will produce runoff during storm events. When a land area is altered from a natural forested ecosystem to a landscape consisting of rooftops, streets and parking lots, the hydrology of the system is significantly altered. Water that previously ponded on the forest floor, infiltrated into the soil and converted to groundwater, used by plants and evaporated or transpired into the atmosphere is now converted directly into surface runoff. An important measure of the degree of urbanization in a watershed is the amount of hardened surfaces. As the amount of hardened surfaces increases in a watershed, more rainfall is converted to runoff and not available to the watershed processes that depend on it.
Table 3 illustrates the variation in flow paths of stormwater in a watershed as it becomes hardened. 46
Table 3 Impact of Imperviousness on Stormwater Runoff
Natural Ground 10-20% 30-50% 75-100%
Cover Hardened surfaces Hardened surfaces Hardened surfaces Evapotranspiration 40% 38% 35% 30% Runoff 10% 25% 30% 55% Shallow Infiltration 25% 21% 20% 10% Deep Infiltration 25% 21% 15% 5% Total Stormwater 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: United States, Environmental Protection Agency
In order to protect the ecosystems supported by the lakes and rivers that flow through our communities, urban areas should strive to reduce hardened surfaces to a level where water is still available for plants and animals and groundwater is replenished.
The stormwater case study undertaken by the Muskoka Watershed Council demonstrated that stormwater runoff in our urban areas is significantly impacting the recreational water quality of our lakes and rivers. Overland flows from streets, rooftops, and parking lots engorge downstream waterways every time it rains. This stormwater has nowhere to go because the natural vegetation and soils that could absorb it have been paved over. Instead, it becomes a high-speed, high velocity conduit for pollution into our rivers and lakes.
The negative impacts of unmanaged stormwater on natural systems are numerous. Some of the most significant concerns include:
1. Reduction of natural base flow which supports plant life, feeds aquifers used for drinking water, and cools and cleans the water before it reaches the lake or river. 2. Increases in flow magnitude and duration resulting in local flooding and increases in erosion and sediment load to the waterbody. 3. Reduction in stormwater quality resulting in nutrients, bacteria, chemicals and other pollutants reaching our lakes and rivers. 4. Loss of natural habitat, and 5. Loss of scenic urban areas.
Emerging techniques present a new pollution-control philosophy that use soil and vegetation to trap, filter, and infiltrate stormwater. In a water balance approach not only is it important that pre and post flows are
46 http://www.epa.gov/waterscience/guide/stormwater/files/usw_b.pdf.
56 LAND equal but also, pre and post volumes, velocity and water quality. This can be accomplished through the use of Low Impact Development (LID) techniques.
New, innovative infrastructure can be used to restore vegetation and green space in city areas that have been hardened. Planting street trees can reduce stormwater runoff because urban tree canopies intercept rainfall before it hits the pavement and is converted to stormwater. Trees with mature canopies can absorb the first half-inch of rainfall. Other options include decentralized, engineered stormwater controls. These techniques are designed to mimic the functions of the natural environment and are installed to offset the impacts of urbanization and hardened surfaces. These management techniques can be used to minimize, capture, and treat stormwater at the location at which it is created and before it has the opportunity to reach the collection system. Engineered systems commonly used in urban areas include green roofs, rain gardens, rain barrels and cisterns, vegetated swales, pocket wetlands, and permeable pavements.
Many cities are currently beginning to retrofit and soften large downtown core areas at a considerable cost. At a minimum, municipalities should be encouraged to require that new development or redevelopment incorporate alternative stormwater techniques that limit hardened surfaces. Remedial measures to soften existing areas should also be considered by municipalities when undertaking local area improvements or redevelopment projects.
Some local Area Municipalities are beginning to explore improved stormwater techniques in urban core areas. The Town of Huntsville has taken some preliminary steps to remediate an area of hardened surfaces within their urban core creating a small park area and residential condominium project. The Town of Gravenhurst also incorporated enhanced stormwater techniques in the redevelopment of the Muskoka wharf project. As urban areas undergo redevelopment, on-site rain gardens, rain barrels, cisterns, road side plantings and more unique projects such as green roofs and pervious paving should be encouraged.
Maintenance of 85% or greater naturally vegetated shorelines in non-urban areas
The interrelationship between a lake and its shoreline is important. The shoreline zone is the last line of defense against the forces that may otherwise destroy a healthy lake. A naturally vegetated shoreline filters runoff generated by surrounding land uses, removing harmful chemicals and nutrients. At the same time, shoreline vegetation protects the lake edges from erosion caused by waves and ice. The shoreline zone also provides critical habitat for aquatic insects, microorganisms, fish, and other animals, thereby helping to maintain a balance in sensitive aquatic ecosystems.
Table 4 provides an overview of shoreline development and alteration on several lakes within the watershed. On average, 90% of shorelines on lakes in Muskoka have been left in a natural state. This percentage ranges from 78% natural to 100% natural. On the other hand, the area between the shoreline buffer and the house or cottage is often more disturbed with an average of 67% altered; again, the percentage varies between lakes from a low of 5% to a high of 79% altered.
The combined disturbance of the natural vegetation along the shoreline and in the yard area between the residential structure and the water’s edge is an important indicator of the impact shoreline development may be having on a waterbody. A weighted average for each lake was calculated combining the findings of the shoreline and yard area data. The overall weighted average is 31.27% altered or 68.73% left naturally vegetated.
Across the watershed, the District and Area Municipalities, lake associations and heritage foundations such as the Muskoka, Georgian Bay and Lake of Bays Foundations have done significant work to encourage landowners to maintain or renaturalize shorelines. Both the Town of Bracebridge and the Township of Muskoka Lakes, in conjunction with the Muskoka Heritage Foundation, have undertaken local projects to renaturalize the shoreline in public parks. Recent municipal policy at both the District and Area Municipal level requires the maintenance of shoreline vegetation through the development approval
57
LAND process. The Township of Lake of Bays has also implemented a develop permit system that requires a permit to remove shoreline vegetation.
Table 4 Shoreline Alteration
Weighted 47 Shoreline Yard Area Lake Average % Natural % Altered % Natural % Altered % Altered Baxter 87.42 12.57 51.78 48.22 45.55 Bruce 94.70 5.30 66.75 33.25 31.15 Gull 90.29 9.71 45.02 54.98 51.58 Joseph 48 88.21 11.79 N/A N/A N/A Leech 79.02 20.98 20.35 79.65 75.25 Leonard 91.93 8.07 55.62 77.38 72.18 Long (Bala) 89.90 10.10 51.76 48.24 45.38 Long’s 78.32 21.68 44.08 55.92 53.35 (Utterson) Loon 95.50 3.50 58.72 36.76 34.27 MacKay 81.42 18.58 57.77 42.23 40.46 Muskoka 49 84.34 15.66 N/A N/A N/A Nutt 94.91 5.09 72.76 27.24 25.58 Paint 87.27 12.73 51.35 48.65 45.96 Pell 100.00 0 94.98 5.02 4.64 Pine (BB) 93.64 6.36 53.76 46.24 43.25 Ril 89.04 10.96 53.48 46.52 43.85 Rosseau 50 86.83 13.17 N/A N/A N/A Silver (ML) 93.06 6.94 44.97 55.03 51.42 Spring 89.94 10.06 31.16 68.84 64.43 Six Mile 92.33 7.67 77.80 22.20 21.11 Three Mile 94.53 5.47 59.02 40.98 38.32 (ML) Tooke 89.26 10.74 45.70 54.30 51.03 Turtle 96.27 3.73 65.68 64.32 59.78 Twelve Mile 97.57 2.43 82.50 17.50 16.37 Bay Walker 89.57 10.43 34.46 65.56 61.43 Wood 86.77 13.23 45.96 54.04 50.98
Lake 90.12 9.88 67.00 33.00 31.27 Average Source: District of Muskoka
47 The District Municipality of Muskoka, Planning and Economic Development Department, Shoreline Land Use Survey, 2002 – 2006. 48 Ministry of the Environment, Dorset Environmental Science Centre, The Limnology of the Muskoka Lakes, 2000. 49 ibid 50 ibid 58
LAND
Wetland protection
Wetlands are defined as “ lands that are seasonally or permanently flooded by shallow water as well as lands where the water table is close to or at the surface. In either case the presence of abundant water has caused the formation of hydric soils and has favoured the dominance of either hydrophytic or water tolerant plants. The four major types of wetlands are swamps, marshes, bogs and fens”. 51
Wetlands have been recognized by all levels of government as being important components of a healthy environment. The Federal government, through the National Round Table on the Economy and the Environment, considers wetland loss an indicator of environmental health. The Provincial government has taken many steps to identify and protect wetlands, the most notable being the adoption of a protective policy statement in the mid 1990’s.
Wetlands are essential ecosystems and parts of ecosystems. Wetlands do not function in isolation and require the physical and biological interaction with the surrounding lands in order to continue to function and provide benefits. In conjunction with the surrounding land, wetlands create regional hydrological systems that help control surface water flow, purify the water, maintain soil moisture levels, and recharge both groundwater and surface water sources. Ninety percent (90%) of wildlife that rely on wetlands also live in upland areas for a portion of their life. Forty percent (40%) of endangered species rely on both the wetland and the surrounding land for all or a portion of their life cycle. Therefore, in order to ensure the continued functioning of wetland environments, consideration must be given to the wetland and the surrounding land as changes are proposed.
Wetlands and the area that surrounds them provide continuous, sustainable environmental, economic and social benefits that contribute to the high quality of life in Muskoka. For convenience, wetland values are generally grouped into biological, hydrological and socio-economic benefits; however, many of the values contribute to all three broad categories.
Wetlands and their surrounding area:
• Are important for the control and storage of surface water and the recharge and discharge of groundwater; • Maintain and improve water quality, aid in flood control, and protect shorelines from erosion; • Trap sediments which would otherwise fill watercourses; • Support and initiate complex food chains which are ultimately essential for a broad spectrum of living organisms, including humans; • Provide important habitat for a wide variety of plants and animal species; • Immobilize some contaminants and nutrients; • Reduce other contaminants to less damaging compounds; • Assist in maintaining water quality in adjacent lakes and streams that support fish populations; • Provide valuable resource products such as timber, fish and wild rice on a sustainable basis; • Contribute substantial economic and social benefits to the municipality through trapping, hunting, fishing and outfitters; and • Provide active and passive recreational opportunities, including canoeing, bird watching, hunting and fishing.
Although all wetlands have importance, it is broadly recognized that larger wetlands that support regional hydrological systems or are home to rare, threatened and endangered species require an extra level of protection.
51 Government of Ontario, Provincial Policy Statement, Queen’s Printer, 2005 59
LAND a) Evaluate all wetlands and wetland complexes that are 40 ha or greater
Relatively few wetlands in Muskoka have been evaluated. As development pressure continues, it is important to identify and evaluate wetlands in order to ensure that appropriate consideration is given to the protection of the function and values of the wetland through the development process.
As identified on figure 8, thirty wetlands have been identified as being provincially significant, however, as noted previously, only relatively few wetlands have been evaluated and there is no comprehensive program to evaluate any more. It is recommended that a program that systematically evaluates wetlands and wetland complexes over 40 ha be undertaken so that the general knowledge of wetland values improves over time. In addition, once wetlands have been identified as being of provincial significance, they should be protected through Crown land regulation or land trust protection to ensure their long-term survival. b) All Provincially Significant Wetlands protected through Crown land regulation or private land trust
Forty-three percent (43%) of identified Provincially Significant Wetlands in the watershed are on Crown lands and 38% are designated as being a Conservation Reserve and protected from incompatible land uses. Provincially Significant Wetlands on private land have policy protection only and are vulnerable to incompatible uses and other forms of degradation. c) Protection of all wetlands from incompatible uses
In Muskoka, both the District and Area municipalities have adopted land use policy that recognizes and protects the values of wetlands. However, there is very little ability for any level of government to protect wetland areas outside a formal approval process. In these situations, a combination of municipal regulation and stewardship are necessary. New tools available to municipalities, such as development permit, cut and fill regulations, and trees bylaws can be used to regulate alterations to wetlands. In addition, increased education and stewardship incentives by lake associations, environmental organizations and municipalities are important.
60
Figure 8: Provincially Significant Wetlands
61
Our Land – Summary (B-)
Activity Comment Grade
Protection of Ecosystems and A Maintenance of Natural Areas
1. 50% of watershed protected but not all ecosystems are represented. • Protection of a representative 2. Protection relies on Crown land and provincial C+ sample of all ecosystems parks. 3. About half the ecosystems are <30% protected. • Protection of at least one 1. There are two large areas in the Muskoka River area 10,000 ha or greater in Watershed and two areas in the Black/Severn River A each tertiary watershed Watershed. • Protection of 10% of each 1. Not all sub-watersheds have 200 ha natural blocks. sub-watershed in blocks that 2. Rely on Crown land for protection. Very little private A are 200 ha or greater land benefits from any long-term protection. • Greater than 80% natural 1. All sub-watersheds have more than 80% natural A cover in all sub-watersheds cover. 1. Most ecologically significant areas are located on • Protection of ecologically Crown land and are afforded some level of significant areas in a natural B protection. areas system 2. Areas on private land are not protected. Development Impacts C 1. All urban core areas are more than 10% hardened. • Hardened areas in built-up 2. Urban areas need to reduce the amount of D and major development hardened surface to allow water to soak into the ground. 1. 31% of the land between the residence and the • Naturally vegetated water has been significantly altered. shorelines in non-urban B+ 2. Municipal policy requires maintenance of shoreline areas vegetation but implementation is difficult. Protection of Wetlands C
• Evaluate all wetlands and 1. Relatively few wetlands have been evaluated. wetland complexes that are D 2. There is no program to evaluate additional wetlands. 40 ha or greater
1. 43% of provincially significant wetlands are • All Provincially Significant protected through Crown land regulation. Wetlands (PSW) protected 2. 38% of provincially significant wetlands are through Crown land protected as part of a Crown land conservation A- regulation or land trust reserve. ownership 3. Additional private land stewardship is required to ensure protection of PSWs on private land.
1. Planning policy provides protection through the • Protection of all wetlands development process. C from incompatible uses 2. Require more education and stewardship to secure wetlands where there is no development application.
62 LAND
Bibliography
1. District Municipality of Muskoka, Economic Profile, October, 2004. http://www.muskoka.on.ca/planningeconomic/Economic%20Profile.pdf . 2. District of Muskoka, Heritage Areas Program, 1994. 3. District Municipality of Muskoka, Second Home Study, September 2005. http://www.muskoka.on.ca/planningeconomic/2004%20Second%20Home%20Study.pdf 4. District Municipality of Muskoka, Planning and Economic Development Department, Shoreline Land Use Survey, 2002 – 2006. 5. Eugenio-Martin Juan Luis, Monitoring the Congestion Level of Competitive Destinations with Mixed Logit Models, Chritel Dehaan Tourism and Travel Research Institute, University of Nottingham, 2004. 6. Government of Ontario, Provincial Policy Statement, Queen’s Printer, 2005 7. Ministry of the Environment, Dorset Environmental Science Centre, The Limnology of the Muskoka Lakes, 2000. 8. MNR, Wetland Evaluation file. 9. Pembina Institute Counting Canada’s Natural Capital – Assessing the Real Value of Canada’s Boreal Ecosystems. http://www.borealcanada.ca/pdf/Boreal_Wealth_Report_Nov_2005.pdf 10. http://www.epa.gov/waterscience/guide/stormwater/files/usw_b.pdf .
63
CLIMATE
Climate is the sum of the prevailing weather conditions of a place over a period of time and is comprised of all the features associated with weather, such as temperature, wind patterns, precipitation, and storms. Since the agricultural revolution, the human influence on the natural world including climate has accelerated.
A clear majority of respected and responsible scientists and community leaders agree that climate change is occurring and that humans are responsible for warming the planet at a rate that has never been experienced in human history. Within the past century, the average global temperature has increased by 0.8 0 Celsius. However, only very recently has it been possible to detect even minute shifts in either temperature or biological response to the warming trend. Even then, natural variation and evolutionary change make it very difficult to state with absolute certainty that any particular local trend is a result of global climate change.
This report will provide more questions than answers but will identify local biological and social factors where scientists have predicted that significant change will occur in the future. The Muskoka Watershed Council will continue to monitor these factors and report on trends in future report cards.
Climate Classification
The climate of a place includes measurable environmental factors that affect all forms of life. Physical components of meteorology that may be useful in describing climate include insolation (incoming solar radiation), infrared radiation, atmospheric pressure, wind, relative humidity, temperature, cloud cover, fog, smog , precipitation type and intensity, evaporation, transpiration, and the incidence of cyclones, anticyclones, and frontal passages. Many of these parameters are not included for general climatic descriptions because measurements of them have not been widely available. W. Koppen developed a simple climate classification system based on local terrestrial plant life, temperature and precipitation seventy years ago. 52
Koppen's climatic zones are defined by temperature and precipitation averaged both over the whole year and by individual months. These parameters have been measured for many years in many places allowing Koppen's system to be applied worldwide. For our region the current climate is described as Dfb.
• D stands for a snowy climate (with sufficient heat and moisture for the growth of high trunked trees) and the warmest month mean temperature over 10 0 C and coldest month mean under –30 C. • f stands for sufficient precipitation in all months. • b stands for warmest months average temperature under 22 0 C and at least four months with over 10 0 C.
A Dfb climate may be described as a cold, snowy forest climate, moist all year with warm summers. Located in central and eastern parts of continents of middle latitudes, Dfb is in the battleground of polar and tropical air masses. Seasonal contrasts are strong and weather highly variable. Ample precipitation throughout the year is increased in summer by invading maritime tropical air masses. Cold winters are dominated by modified continental air masses. 53
The Parry Sound/Muskoka/Haliburton area has enjoyed this temperate climate for thousands of years and continues to do so. At this point we are experiencing fluctuations in weather but the overall climate of the area remains as a ‘cold, snowy forest climate’. Scientists and meteorologists have not predicted if global warming will significantly alter this basic climatic classification.
52 Strahler, Physical Geography (4th ed.), Wiley, New York ( 1975 ) 53 ibid
64 CLIMATE
History of Climate Change
Prior to the ice ages of the past 600 thousand years, the climate of our region was warmer than now for a period of at least 250 million years. Evidence for this is in the fossil records of the sedimentary rocks just to the south that were not destroyed by the grinding of glaciers.
Trying to piece together the climate record during and after the retreat of the last continental glacier has led investigators to many varied sources. They include both continental and alpine glaciers, pollen deposits in bogs, tree rings, isotopes and archaeological data 54 . Since the most recent ice sheet began to retreat 13,000 years Before Present (B.P.), Earth’s climate warmed gradually to a maximum around 4000 B.P. when sea level was two to seven metres higher than present levels. Pollen deposits in bogs indicate that the spruce forest belt (the arctic tree line) moved north, keeping close to the edge of the retreating ice. By 4000 B.P. the spruce forest was 250 to 300 km farther north than its present limits, and temperatures averaged 30C warmer in Keewatin at 61 latitude. Hardwood forests also advanced 300 km farther north due to the warmer climate. 55
During the past 4000 years, average temperatures have varied 2 to 3 C in the northern hemisphere. Examples of these variations, the warmth of the thirteenth century followed by the cold regime of the Little Ice Age (1550 to 1700 A.D.) are well documented in European records of alpine glaciers retreating and advancing, length of winters, growing seasons, and duration of ice in northern ports. Since 1900 a significant warming trend has been occurring. 56 In the Algonquin region however, this warming trend during the past 2000 years has not altered the forest community appreciably. 57
Given that climate is always changing and there have been warm periods in the past, why is there concern about the current warming trend? The climate change we are seeing today differs from previous climate change in both its rate and its magnitude.
Human Influence On Climate Change
Since the industrial revolution, human activity has caused a warming of the Earth’s atmosphere that has been accelerating along with its population and consumption of fossil fuels (peat, coal, petroleum and natural gas).
According to a clear majority of respected and responsible earth scientists, the recent rapid warming is caused not by changes in the sun’s energy output, as it has been in the past, but increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases: water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides and a few human made compounds. Without these special gases, that trap infrared radiation near the Earth’s surface it would be too frigid for life as we know it to exist. As a result of burning fossil fuels, and as shown in Figure 1, concentrations have increased 30% for carbon dioxide. In addition, methane has increased by 145 per cent and nitrous oxide by 15 per cent. 58
54 Lamb, H.H., 1995, Climate, History and the Modern World, Methuen, London. 55 ibid 56 ibid 57 Cwynar, L.C. 1977The Recent Fire History of Barron Township, Algonquin Park, On. Can. J. Bot. 56: 10-21. 58 Government of Canada, Environment Canada, Climate Change Overview , The Science of Climate Change http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/overview_science-e.html 65 CLIMATE
Figure 1: Trends in Global Carbon Dioxide Concentrations 59
Another factor causing increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane is the increasing worldwide human destruction of forests and wetlands that absorb and store them. Increased development in Muskoka may lead to the loss of both wetlands and forests and continued vigilance, through the development approval process is required to protect these important resources.
Warming is not spread evenly over the continents, but rather greater warming has occurred at higher latitudes than near the tropics and there is greater warming on land masses than in the oceans. People and animals such as polar bears that inhabit the northland have experienced recent disruptive changes due to late freezing and early melting of winter roads and shrinking of the ice pack. Scientists agree that the warming will continue even if fossil fuel consumption is reduced, and if the current trend to consume more continues. The rate of warming may cause significantly more catastrophes within the next decades. Unfortunately, no one is able to predict exact consequences, but informed predictions about how such rapid warming may affect life on Earth can be made.
On the global scale, the following natural consequences will continue to increase: melting of alpine and polar continental glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica, rising oceans levels, expanding deserts in some places (Australia and Africa), shifting pole ward of warmer climates along with there associated plants and animals, increasing in intensity and frequency of catastrophic weather events such as hurricanes, severe thunderstorms and their damaging tornados, downbursts, hail and cloud bursts as well as more surprising weather such as ice storms and wind storms. Many animals, including humans will continue to have difficulty adapting to change; plant and animal populations in some areas will plummet while in others will rise as changes in their habitat occur.
Watershed Implications
Climate change impacts in our watershed are likely to be subtle and gradual. From 1895 to 1999, annual mean temperatures have increased by only 0.7°C for the southern portion of the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence basin, which includes Muskoka/Haliburton/Parry Sound. From 1948 to 2005, a warming trend of 0.5°C has been recorded. Total precipitation has increased from 1895 to 1995. However, an extension of a trend for the period 1996 to 2005 is inconclusive. Since 1860, annual water levels in the Great Lakes have only fluctuated about 2 m from measured maximum and minimum levels. Recently,
59 Government of Canada, Environment Canada Climate Change and Severe Weather http://www.ec.gc.ca/TKEI/cc_weather/cc_e.cfm 66 CLIMATE lake levels dropped dramatically from highs in 1997 and remained low through to 2001, as a result of exceptionally hot and dry conditions. 60
Climate change will have ecological, social and economic impacts on the local watersheds. Scientists do not understand all the possible implications but some changes and stresses are already being documented not only across Canada and the world but also in Muskoka. Some data that may be interesting to track over time that will be influenced by global warming include: data for freeze up and break up of local lakes and rivers; first and last days for golfing; severe weather events such as wind storms, hail and tornados, flooding and freezing rain; the return of migratory birds, siting of birds and animals that usually live farther south. A brief summary of some key factors is presented below.
Wildlife
It is difficult to predict the specific impacts that climate change will have on the wildlife of an area, as each species will react differently and in a site-specific manner. More research is required to understand all the relationships involved.
In general, the northern limit of species ranges tend to be determined by abiotic factors such as temperature where as the southern boundary is usually defined by biotic factors such as competition and parasites. Therefore, the southern boundary tends to be more fluid and change more quickly than the northern boundary. This may result in some species getting ‘squeezed out’ if they cannot adapt and migrate northward fast enough.
Species that will tend to be successful as change occurs will be those that are able to adapt quickly and are generalists. They will likely have high reproductive rate, be capable of long migrations, colonize rapidly, be tolerant of people, and survive in a broad range of environmental conditions. Species that are easily identified in this category are squirrels, raccoon, beaver and skunks; often considered urban pests.
Scientists have identified several local species that are expected to be directly impacted by a warming climate. These species can be tracked over time as indicators of change in the natural system as climate changes.
Moose – Moose will be impacted as deer moved up into the traditional moose territory. Deer carry a disease that impacts the brain and is fatal to moose although it is manageable in the deer population. Moose will also be impacted if changing precipitation results in heavier snowfall, which tends to produce larger wolf packs, which, in turn, have a higher kill success on moose.
Blacked Legged Tick – The black-legged tick is the carrier of lyme disease. Traditionally found only in warmer, more southern areas this pest is beginning to move north. Populations of the insect are already established in southern Ontario and it is predicted that they will be in all parts of Muskoka by 2020.
Eastern Bluebird – It is possible that eastern bluebirds may become more prevalent in Muskoka as more habitat is created through fire and development. With warmer temperatures, these little creatures may find the area very welcoming.
Turtles – Many species of turtles are already under stress due to habitat loss and transportation corridors. Climate change will add to that stress. The sex of turtles is temperature dependent. Eggs incubated
60 Tina Tin Hydrological Changes in the Great Lakes – St. Lawrence Basin under Climate Change and Impacts on Hydropower Generation in Implications of a 2°C global temperature rise on Canada’s water resources Athabasca River and oil sands development Great Lakes and hydropower production http://wwf.ca/AboutWWF/WhatWeDo/ConservationPrograms/GlobalWarming/reports/WWF_2degCanada _WaterReport.pdf 67 CLIMATE above a pivotal temperature of about 30° C develop into females and those below about 30° C develop into males. Warmer temperatures could result in a gender imbalance in many species of turtles. 61
Changing climate has also resulted in changes in the timing of breeding for several animals. There has been an advance in the birthing date for red squirrels of 18 days since the 1950’s. Because they have a head start each spring, red squirrels now out-compete other similar rodents and are bigger and healthier by the following winter. This genetic shift may result in a shift in squirrel composition.
Tree swallows are also breeding nine days earlier than thirty years ago. The concern with the early breeding of some birds is that they are then out of phase with insects that serve as food. In these cases, the bird may suffer and become more vulnerable to other stresses, such as parasites and sudden cold temperature.
Warmer temperatures will mean that some species at their southern limit will not survive. A recent study of the non-migratory Canada jay or grey jay in the northern part of the watershed illustrates the stress that some local species are already facing. Grey jays have always been a common sight in the Algonquin and Huntsville portions of the watershed, however, their population has dropped by 50 percent in the last 25 years. 62 Grey jays store food in the trunks of trees where it will freeze in the fall and winter and be available in late winter and early spring, when it is needed to feed the young. However, with warmer temperatures, their hoards are rotting and the grey jay is dying out in the southern part of its range, including Muskoka.
Forestry
A general trend toward warmer conditions combined with increasing levels of carbon dioxide could increase forest growth in Canada. It could take decades, or even centuries, however, before forests adjust to new climatic conditions. Climate models predict that tree species would have to migrate at a rate of 3.6km/yr to adapt to climate change. Historically, using paleo core analysis, trees have never migrated more than 1 km/yr. During this period of adjustment, the boreal forest in particular could be more vulnerable to insects and diseases, forest fires, and competition from unwanted species, and the forestry industry will have to adapt to new climatic conditions. The rate of change, as well as the number and severity of extreme events, will dramatically affect the magnitude of impacts and our ability to cope with them.
Most of Muskoka is situated at the northern limit of the temperate mixed hardwood forest of south central Ontario while some of the higher country in the northern part of the watershed supports boreal species such as black spruce. As the climate warms it is predicted that there will be a shifting northward of the ecological zones, however, there will likely be variation in the change depending on individual site characteristics.
As noted above, we can expect a gradual change in our forests and their associated plants and animals. Already local foresters are indicating that both beech and maple are becoming stressed and when replanting occurs, drought tolerant species like black cherry, red oak, white ash and white pine are favoured. It is likely that northern species such as black spruce will eventually disappear from the landscape. 63 However, in general, the landscape will remain forested and support a variety of common hardwood and softwood species.
Damage to seed crops will also add stress to the forest ecosystem . When a severe weather event such as wind, hail or heavy rains takes down seed prematurely, natural regeneration will not occur. In addition,
61 Lovich, J.E. Turtles and Global Climate Change, United States Geological Service and Department of Biology University of California, Riverside, 2003. http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/impacts/biology/turtles/ 62 Waite, T.A; Strickland, D, Climate Change and the Demographic demise of a Hording Bird Living on the Edge, in Proceedings of the Royal Society B . 63 Peet, Tyler, Forester, Haliburton Forest and Wildlife reserve presented at Climate Change and Your Woodlot Stewardship Session Kinark Outdoor Centre, Cararvon, May 25, 2007 68 CLIMATE immature seed cannot be collected and grown in local nurseries to supply replanting needs. Pollen may also be washed out of the system prematurely limiting seed production.
It is unclear as to how our local forests will adapt to climate change and the multiple stressors being experienced. Although the climate may be more amenable to the growth of some trees, there is some concern that many essential nutrients, such as calcium, have been washed out of the native soils as a result of acid rain. The combination of all these stresses along with development, and invasive species and parasites, may be catastrophic to the forest and subsequently to the tourism and recreation, and forestry industries that rely on them. 64
Fisheries
A warming by a few degrees in average temperature to well managed aquatic ecosystems will have subtle and not catastrophic affects on their health. The lakes within the watershed will continue to turn over due to freeze up in winter and warm up in spring. This annual cycle is the most significant factor that determines the kind of fish and other aquatic plants and animals that thrive here. History shows that human interference such as acid precipitation , other poisons, increased nutrient levels, suspended solids and habitat destruction especially along shorelines are likely far more detrimental to aquatic ecosystems than what global warming will likely cause.
Climate change will, however, affect both the productivity of fish populations and how they are distributed throughout our lakes and streams. Changes to water temperature, currents, water quality, food supply, and predators could all have effects on fish populations.
The freshwater fishery is mostly a subsistence and recreational fishery. Change to the distribution of highly prized species would have an effect on the recreation fishery industry, with possible losses occurring in some areas and gains in other areas. In general, as lake and stream temperatures warm, species at their warmer southern limit will either die or migrate northward to more favourable habitats. Cool and cold-water freshwater fish populations, including species such as trout, whitefish, and grayling, could be reduced in many lakes and streams on the Canadian Shield due to declining water levels and flow and reductions in nutrient loading and recycling.
Freshwater fish species that currently live at the northern limit, or cold-water limit, of their preferred habitats in larger lakes will likely benefit from warmer water temperatures, experiencing increased survival and growth.
Growth rates, age of sexual maturity, and distribution of some marine fish species are sensitive to water temperatures. Cooler temperatures could typically result in delayed spawning and a shift in distribution southward, while warmer temperatures could result in earlier spawning and a shift in distribution to the north.
The composition of the fish population in Muskoka is changing with the introduction of warm water fish species like bass and the cold-water fish species like trout experiencing stress.
Preliminary work undertaken by Dr. David Evans of the Ministry of Natural Resources indicates that warming temperatures may negatively impact some lake trout populations in the watershed. 65 Dr. Evans’ study indicates that warming and drought will result in reduced export of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) to lakes with increased transparency and light resulting in greater thermocline depth and reduced volume of habitat for cold-water species.
Earlier springs and protracted falls will result in extended thermal stratification and greater oxygen depletion in the bottom waters of lakes leading to reduced habitat quality for lake trout. Earlier and extended spring mixing in small lakes with greater whole-lake warming and increased temperatures in the
64 Watmough, S.A., Dillon, P.J. Calcium losses from a forested catchment in south central Ontario, Canada. Environmental Science and Technology 37: 3085-3089 (2003). 65 Evans D.O., Implications of Climate Change for Lake Trout Fisheries in Ontario, A talk given at the A.D. Latornell Conservation Symposium, Alliston, Ontario, November 16, 2006 69 CLIMATE bottom of lakes will result in increased plant decay further reducing the amount of available oxygen in the bottom waters of lakes.
Based on temperature and precipitation records for the last 70 years from the Muskoka Airport, Dr Evans identified that both the annual temperature and annual precipitation has increased, however, the increases are seasonally influenced which has a further negative impact on sensitive lake trout. His research indicated that there has been an increase in temperature of 0.243 o C in March but that average temperatures in October are cooler by –0.326 o C. He noted that there was no change in the average summer temperature. Dr. Evans noted that average precipitation in May had increased by 0.148/mm/day/decade and in October, the increase was 0.152 mm/day/decade. No change was noted during March, July or December, however, the snow depth during March has been reduced.
The main concern for lake trout with this shift in temperature and precipitation appears to be earlier stratification of the lake, warmer waters at the bottom of the lake and increased oxygen depletion during the summer. These changes put a significant stress on the juvenile population as it forces the young up into the waters occupied by the adults who tend to cannibalize the population.
On the other hand, the bass population appears to be thriving in lakes such as Lake Muskoka. As bass tournaments are a large tourist draw, this shift in fish populations may have a positive economic spin-off.
Health
It is predicted that climate change could affect the health of Canadians due to higher temperatures, more frequent storms, and increases in air pollution episodes. Changes in the transmission of insect- or water- borne diseases could also have an impact on Canadians' health. As well as affecting the health of individual Canadians, these projected changes would place additional stresses on the health- infrastructure and social-support systems.
The World Health Organization has warned that heat stress and climate-induced respiratory problems as a result of reduced air quality could occur in urban areas, and could lead to increased death rates. Locally, the Ontario Medical Association (OMA) has reported that Muskoka experienced 31 premature deaths in 2005 with an additional 56 deaths projected for 2006 as a result of poor air. Most premature deaths are due to poor air quality that results in cardio-vascular and respiratory complications. The OMA also identified a total cost to the health care system and lost productivity in Muskoka due to poor air quality as $3.42 million in 2005. This cost is expected to rise as warmer temperatures produce more poor air quality days. 66
Infrastructure
In 2007, there is insufficient local trend data to determine any real change in long-term trends with respect to such factors as the levels of precipitation, temperatures or wind storms and how that might impact on local infrastructure.
Nationally, it is projected that changes in rainfall intensity and snowmelt runoff could increase the potential for flooding in water basins, with over-tipping of dams, culverts, and flood control structures. Projected increases in rainfall intensity could change the patterns of flooding in Canada, requiring adaptation of flood-prevention infrastructure.
Human settlements and infrastructure are especially vulnerable to extreme weather events. In 1996, floods and hailstorms cost an estimated $1.5 billion in damages to homes, business, and infrastructure.
Although Muskoka has not experienced some of the extreme flooding, ice storms and wind damage seen in other areas, there has been an increase in severe weather damage over the last ten years and municipalities are beginning to take steps to adapt to what is seen as a new reality. Based on previous year’s experiences where ‘clean-up’ dollars had to be redirected from capital projects to address storm
66 Ontario Medical Association, Illness Costs of Air Pollution (ICAP) – regional Data for 2005 (with projections to 2006) . 70 CLIMATE damage, such as the rebuilding of Fraserburg Road (DR #14) in the 2000, Muskoka has established a storm reserve in the 2007 budget with an initial contribution of $103,000.
Economic Impact
Changing weather patterns could mean differences in how Canadians enjoy the outdoors and may impact the local economy. Adapting now may place us in a favourable position to take advantage of future opportunities.
Hunting of game and waterfowl is likely to feel the impact of climate change as wildlife may be displaced due to habitat loss, altering community structures, or increased competition. Protection of wetland habitat and forested areas will be important to support this activity.
Recreational fishing may be locally disrupted by lower water levels in lakes, declining flow rates in streams, warmer temperatures, and reductions in nutrient loading. On larger lakes, however, opportunities for events such as bass tournaments may present themselves as warm water fish species move into the area.
The season for summer outdoor activities may be lengthened with warmer temperatures earlier in the spring and later in the fall. In the past twelve years the average opening date for several golf courses has gone from the May 24th weekend to late April or early May, a lengthening of 2 to 4 weeks. Although an anomaly, in the fall of 2006, golf was still being played in some areas across the watershed well into December. 67
The season for outdoor activities in winter will likely be shorter, especially in more southerly latitudes. Shorter winters with less snow but more ice storm problems, fewer days with frozen lakes that are safe for travel and ice fishing, fewer days for Nordic and Alpine skiing and snow mobiling, and less energy demand for heating per household can be expected.
Economic opportunities also exist, especially if consumers reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Industries that support sustainable technologies such as, geothermal, solar and wind as well as efficient transportation vehicles and buildings, and mass transit are thriving in Europe and could do so here. In addition, towns are likely to become more densely populated as fuel prices and shortages drive prices up and commuters move closer to their work places.
A Call To Action
Global warming as a result of human activity is occurring, and its effects will continue to affect all life on Earth. Rapid unsettling change may be reduced if individuals and communities “act locally and think globally”.
Recent books such as Tim Flannery’s The Weather Makers and videos such as Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth restate practical advice that has been around for generations; they also encourage local action that may lead to worldwide action. A question that each individual should ask is: “Am I going to be part of the problem or part of the solution?”
An overwhelming majority of World leaders, with earth scientists’ encouragement, signed the Kyoto Protocol on Feb. 16, 2006. It is intended to reduce the causes of Global Warming: the excessive and increasing use of fossil fuels.
“The treaty marks a great divide, on one side of which stand those who are certain it is essential to Earth’s survival, and on the other those who are fiercely opposed on economic and ideological grounds. Many in this group think Kyoto is economically flawed and politically unrealistic. Others believe that the entire climate change issue is hogwash.” 68
67 Don MacKay, owner, Muskoka highlands Golf Club, pers com. 68 Flannery, The Weather makers, 2006, p 223 71 CLIMATE Since Canada’s federal Liberal government signed the agreement, little has been done to get on with the difficult decisions that will curb our appetites for fossil fuels and excessive lifestyles that drive our economy. The current Conservative government, in agreement with U.S.A.’s president has declared Kyoto too potentially damaging to Canada’s economy and has put another plan that supports the status quo.
Positive initiatives are occurring. Both federal and Ontario’s governments have recently encouraged intelligent purchases of new fuel-efficient cars by giving rebates and reducing sales tax. According to a local car dealer, there are no more of the preferred cars available for this year, and hopefully the manufacturers will build more to meet the demand.
The Ontario provincial government is promoting conservation and non-polluting renewable sources such as solar and wind energy with the long-term goal of reducing fossil fuel use in electrical generation. As with many issues, a solution to the reduction of greenhouse gases is not simple or straightforward. The decision to replace coal with nuclear-fueled plants is debatable and although it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it will increase nuclear waste and perhaps increase threats to the environment from nuclear accidents or acts of war.
The Ontario provincial government is also amending the elementary and secondary school curriculums to include more about ecology and the importance of fostering the natural environment. The grade 10- science curriculum will have a whole unit on Global Warming.
Canadians, however, remain the biggest fossil fuel consumers per capita in the world and grass roots initiatives are required to demonstrate to senior levels of government that actions can be taken to curb carbon emissions while still maintaining a healthy economy.
At the local level, both the Towns of Huntsville and Bracebridge have enacted anti idling bylaws, and several local municipalities have passed by-laws or resolutions discouraging the non-essential use of pesticides. Local governments could take a leadership role by leasing energy-efficient vehicles, undertaking and implementing energy audits on all buildings, and promoting energy efficiency through local program initiatives.
Community groups across the watersheds have formed to promote activities that will reduce carbon emissions and develop sustainable communities. These include: the Active Transportation Committee, the Huntsville Local Environmental Committee, the Muskoka Sustainability Coalition, the Huntsville Lakes Council, and many lake associations. These groups undertake local action, like trail development and support for bicycle commuting; education activities, like environment fairs; and support local government initiatives.
On a broader scale, the Muskoka Heritage Foundation and the Muskoka Watershed Council have joined with the District of Muskoka and the Ministry of Natural Resources to develop a watershed inventory that identifies significant areas for protection. The District of Muskoka will use the information as background to develop a natural areas strategy that will be incorporated into the revised Official Plan. The Muskoka Heritage Foundation will develop an acquisition strategy to guide in future purchases of key parcels of land. Maintaining Muskoka’s forests in this way will ensure they continue to sequester carbon and produce oxygen into the future.
It is likely that if administrators and directors of business and institutions implemented a bottom up approach for finding ways to reduce energy use, Canada would be well along in its commitment to The Kyoto agreement. Global Warming caused by humans could be slowed with efforts by all levels of societies.
72 CLIMATE
TOP 4 LOCAL ACTIONS TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE
1. Reduce Energy Used For Transportation a. Reduce the use of your vehicle – walk, bike, car pool, use public transportation b. Make sure your next car meets low greenhouse gas emissions standards c. Don’t idle more than 10 seconds 2. Reduce your use of electricity a. Reduce your use of air conditioning b. Turn off lights, install compact fluorescent light bulbs, buy energy efficient appliances 3. Make sure that your home is energy efficient a. Insulate b. Upgrade to an high efficiency furnace 4. Become an advocate for Change a. Write your local MP, MPP, and local councils and demand action at all levels to address climate change issues b. Encourage dialogue with the United States to reduce American emissions
73 CLIMATE
Bibliography
1. Cwynar, L.C. 1977The Recent Fire History of Barron Township, Algonquin Park, On. Can. J. Bot. 56: 10-21. 2. Don MacKay, owner, Muskoka highlands Golf Club, pers com 3. Lamb, H.H., 1995, Climate, History and the Modern World, Methuen, London. 4. Flannery, The Weather makers, 2006, p 223 5. Evans D.O., Implications of Climate Change for Lake Trout Fisheries in Ontario, A talk given at the A.D. Latornell Conservation Symposium, Alliston, Ontario, November 16, 2006 6. Government of Canada, Environment Canada, Climate Change Overview , The Science of Climate Change http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/overview_science-e.html 7. Government of Canada, Environment Canada Climate Change and Severe Weather http://www.ec.gc.ca/TKEI/cc_weather/cc_e.cfm 8. Lovich, J.E. Turtles and Global Climate Change, United States Geological Service and Department of Biology University of California, Riverside, 2003. http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/impacts/biology/turtles/ 9. Ontario Medical Association, Illness Costs of Air Pollution (ICAP) – regional Data for 2005 (with projections to 2006) . 10. Peet, Tyler, Forester, Haliburton Forest and Wildlife reserve presented at Climate Change and Your Woodlot Stewardship Session Kinark Outdoor Centre, Cararvon, May 25, 2007 11. Strahler, Physical Geography (4th ed.), Wiley, New York ( 1975 ) 12. Tina Tin Hydrological Changes in the Great Lakes – St. Lawrence Basin under Climate Change and Impacts on Hydropower Generation in Implications of a 2°C global temperature rise on Canada’s water resources Athabasca River and oil sands development Great Lakes and hydropower production http://wwf.ca/AboutWWF/WhatWeDo/ConservationPrograms/GlobalWarming/reports/WWF_2deg Canada_WaterReport.pdf 13. Waite, T.A; Strickland, D, Climate Change and the Demographic demise of a Hording Bird Living on the Edge, in Proceedings of the Royal Society B . 14. Watmough, S.A., Dillon, P.J. Calcium losses from a forested catchment in south central Ontario, Canada. Environmental Science and Technology 37: 3085-3089 (2003).
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SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
The overall health of the Muskoka River and Black/Severn River Watersheds is a B-. This evaluation is based on an analysis of the Water, Air and Land components of the natural environment.
The first Muskoka Watersheds Report Card was released in July 2004. It took a cursory and very strategic look at the health of the Muskoka and Black/Severn River watersheds. Three years later, there is a little more data upon which the evaluation of the watershed can be based. Although it is generally agreed that the health of the watersheds have not changed significantly in the three intervening years, our ability to analyze and evaluate ecosystem health has improved.
In 2005, the District of Muskoka completed its review and analysis of their recreational water quality model and the 20 years of sampling data. The review resulted in the Lake System Health Program and new restrictive development policy around lakes. The completion of the District review provided an updated understanding of lake nutrient levels and the health of lakes across the watershed.
In 2005, the Muskoka Heritage Foundation in collaboration with the Muskoka Watershed Council, District of Muskoka, and the Ministry of Natural Resources, began to develop the Muskoka Watershed Inventory. This project has provided a better and more detailed understanding of the health of our forests. We now understand the fragmented nature of the watershed and the vulnerable state of some of our most dearly loved natural areas.
The data we have on our air quality has not changed significantly over the last three years. The provincial air quality monitoring stations continue to record sporadic high levels of ozone and fine particulate matter , however, no trend is readily apparent. In Muskoka, we will not be satisfied with our air quality until there are no days during the year where smog is an issue. This will not occur until international agreements on air quality address the nitrous oxide (NO X) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions coming from the Ohio valley.
Comparison of 2004 to 2007
Water
In general, both the 2004 and 2007 analysis indicated that the recreational water quality in lakes is good to excellent with low bacteria and phosphorus levels and it is likely that the water quality of the lakes has not changed over this time period. Our understanding of the data, however, suggests that there has been a slight decline in water clarity over the 20-year time period for which there are monitoring data and this may be a first ‘red flag’ that should continue to be monitored. The reason for a decline in water clarity is not understood and may be a result of a change in types of algae, changes due to climate change, or a result of nutrient enrichment.
Drinking water continues to score very high. Both ground and surface water sources are clean and not subject to any significant threats. Over the next several years, the District of Muskoka will develop source protection plans that will provide an even higher level of security for our drinking water sources.
The aquatic habitat section expands on the fish section from the 2004 report card. In 2004, the report card highlighted a mild concern about fish. Many fish species had eating advisories and the Georgian Bay fishery was experiencing threats due to invasive species, fishing pressures and chemical contaminants. In 2007, these stresses have not lessened but our increasing understanding of the impacts of climate change has complicated the analysis. For this reason, fish have been addressed through the new Climate Change section, however, it should be noted that concern for our fish populations remains. This section also examines the loss of natural shoreline vegetation that is critical to the survival of many aquatic and terrestrial species. Additional work is required on this indicator to fully report on the health of aquatic habitat
75 SUMMARY and CONCLUSION A new section on Stewardship was added to the 2007 report card. People’s actions around water will significantly impact the health of the lakes and rivers in the watershed. This is a difficult indicator to evaluate and will evolve as more sophisticated measures are developed.
Air
Air quality has not changed significantly over the three years between the first and second report cards. There is still concern about the level of ozone and fine particulate matter and the number of air quality advisories across the watershed. Without a concerted effort by all levels of government to reduce emissions through industrial regulations, conservation and improved transportation standards, air quality will remain the same or worsen.
Land
The Land section of the report card demonstrates the most change since 2004, although it is unlikely that there has been that noticeable a change on the land. As a result of completing the terrestrial component of the Muskoka Watershed Inventory the evaluation of the land section has benefited from a more detailed review of data. The watershed inventory identified landscape level concerns and geographic patterns that could not previously be understood. It is now evident that many ecosystems are not protected and are vulnerable to being lost. There are only a few very large intact natural areas that can support some of our native large mammals. In some areas of the watershed, even moderate sized natural areas are missing. These areas are important to support interior forest species like many birds.
A new area of concern is hardened surfaces. Scientific studies indicate that when 10% or more of a watershed or smaller catchment area is hardened, erosion and other damage will result.
The ongoing concern for the protection of the area wetlands continues. There have been no new wetland evaluations completed in the last three years. Although municipalities take a proactive approach, through the development process to protect these areas, much damage is done when no approvals are required. Increased education and stewardship are required, along with protection through the efforts of local land trusts.
Climate Change
A new section for the 2007 report card is Climate Change. Climate change will be the single most significant stress on the watershed in the foreseeable future. Although it is still too early to truly understand what changes will occur and the impact on the social, economic and environmental systems within the watershed, some early changes have been noted. It is generally agreed that there is little that can be done in the short-term to significantly alter the impact of climate change. Adaptation to rapidly evolving situations will be essential for both natural and human systems to survive.
People will adapt and find opportunities for improvement along the way. Many species and ecosystems will not be able to adapt as quickly and it is likely that many native species will become extinct. With these multiple stressors affecting our watersheds, maintaining healthy natural, intact ecosystems is the best insurance against widespread degradation.
Watershed Evaluation (B-)
The health of the Muskoka and Black/Severn River Watersheds has been defined through an analysis of the water, air and land. The following analysis of the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) of the watersheds begins to highlight areas and programs that can address some of the identified threats, build on the strengths and take advantage of the opportunities to ensure the long-term health of the area. For the purpose of this report these term are defined as follows:
76 SUMMARY and CONCLUSION
Strength – an inherent quality of the landscape, the geographic location, or human interactions that provides a benefit to the natural values and ecological functioning of the watershed.
Weakness - an inherent quality of the landscape, the geographic location, or human interactions that is a liability to the natural values and ecological functioning of the watershed.
Opportunity – an action that may result in an improvement to the natural values or ecological functioning of the watershed
Threat – an action that may result in a deterioration of the na tural values or ecological functioning of the watershed
This analysis will form the basis for the next three-year work program to continue to monitor the health of the watershed and report again in 2010.
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Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
General
Watershed is subject to multiple There are many associations and Climate change will impact all Well-vegetated watershed with stressors including acid rain, individuals becoming involved in facets of the natural systems many natural areas. invasive species, climate change, stewardship and environmental within the watershed and development. action activities.
The area is located outside There is insufficient data to Good stewardship ethic by southern Ontario and there is New municipal planning policy is understand the threats and residents and district and area limited funding opportunities or encouraging better individual potential impacts of climate councils. government programs to address stewardship. change. data gaps.
There is poor data and there is no local organization with the People have a passion for the New funding opportunities are Current targets for the reduction in mandate and dedicated budget to natural beauty and strengths of becoming available for sulphur will not reduce acid collect data and undertake the the watershed. environmentally related projects. deposition below critical levels. analysis to understand change and impact.
As we begin to adapt to changing Acid deposition has and will ecological processes and warmer continue to impact the forests, Good planning policy. temperatures many new social, waters and air quality of the economic and environmental watersheds. opportunities will arise
Increased development may Increased development may provide opportunities for encroach into natural areas or remediation and the protection of degrade wetlands and other wetland areas and other important natural areas. natural areas.
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Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Water
Small lakes that support cold- Removal of shoreline vegetation water fish are at the southern There is a new comprehensive as small ‘traditional’ cottages are Good to excellent recreational edge of their range and are being provincial program to develop replaced with large homes and water quality in our lakes. significantly impacted by warming source water protection plans. lots are landscaped based on temperatures which is reducing urban values. important bottom habitat.
Most lakes have only normal Fish tournaments that rely on Introduction of invasive species background levels of bacteria and warm-water fish will become more through bait fish and boat have low levels of total viable. movement phosphorus.
Good nutrient and bacteria data Many lake associations are Climate change and acid for most lakes across the undertaking local lake planning. deposition watershed
The Dorset Environmental Science Centre is located within the watershed and provides good scientific level data on many lakes and undertakes lake specific studies where warranted.
Good clean sources of drinking . water.
Planning policy limits incompatible uses adjacent to municipal drinking water sources and encourages good stewardship adjacent to all lakes and other surface water sources.
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Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Air
Location of the watersheds in the Current environmental climate is Increased industrial development Improved air quality data with two flow path of air masses from the good to get real improvements in in the Ohio Valley without watershed-based stations. Ohio Valley. air quality legislation. improved air quality standards.
Reliance on vehicle transportation Federal governments reliance on from southern Ontario, especially intensity-based air quality during the summer when air standards. quality is an issue.
Land
Only a few wetlands have been General environmental concern Development may fragment the A forested landscape with many identified and classified as has increased people’s interest in landscape and reduce the intact natural areas. provincially significant. donating land to land trusts. connectivity of natural areas The District of Muskoka plans to There is no comprehensive or 11 provincial parks including 2 develop a natural areas strategy coordinated program to evaluate large natural environment parks. in conjunction with the current wetlands review of its Official Plan There are large areas of crown Poor data sets to understand land health of natural areas.
The cores of built-up areas have Many privately owned large more than 10% hardened natural areas including hunt surfaces and municipalities have camps and lake association not identified hardened surfaces holdings. as a concern for remediation. No comprehensive growth strategy to accommodate Three local land trusts accelerated development pressures and to establish firm urban boundaries. No comprehensive natural areas strategy upon which a protected areas plan can be developed.
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GLOSSARY
General
Watershed : is the land area that drains into a particular body of water, such as a lake or a river, and includes all the natural and human communities found there.
Trophic Status : relates to the amount of nutrient, or food, available to organisms.
Water
Abiotic : is the nonliving component of the environment including soil, water, air, light and nutrients.
Acid Deposition : is rain, snow, fog and other form of precipitation with extremely low pH (acid).
Alkalinity : is a substance which combines with acid and neutralizes it to form a salt.
Biodiversity : the natural variance in the biological community
Critical Load : is the maximum yearly amount of acid deposition that will allow 95% of the lakes within a region to maintain a pH of 6 or more.
Dissolved Organic Compounds (DOC) : predominantly carbon, the most abundant element found in all organisms. In aquatic environments, it is produced by plant photosynthesis and bacterial growth.
Ecosystem : is the biotic community and its abiotic environment functioning as a system
Ecology : the study of organisms in relation to their environment.
Escherichia coli (E. coli) : is a water-borne bacteria found in human and animal waste that can cause illness or in some cases, death.
Eutrophic : a body of water with high nutrient content and high productivity.
Inorganic : something that does not have the characteristics of a living organism or a chemical substance that does not contain carbon.
Mesotrophic : a body of water that is moderately enriched with nutrients.
Oligotrophic : a body of water that is low in nutrient and productivity.
Paleo Core : A core sample of lake sediment used to study the ecology of past lake communities by means of fossil records.
Riparian Zone : the area of land along banks of rivers, lakes and streams.
Remedial Action Plan : A community-based action plan to address water quality issues on a lake. Source Water Protection: is the process, programs and actions required to protect municipal sources of drinking water.
Secchi Depth : is a measure of clarity for a lake. The higher the Secchi depth value the clearer the lake.
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Air
Smog : is a word derived from ‘smoke’ and ‘fog’ mixing. Smog is now used to describe a condition when particles and chemical pollutants are present in high density. This condition reduces visibility and may irritate eyes and respiratory systems.
Air Mass : is a body of air in which temperature and moisture conditions are uniform over a large area such as the Great Lakes and central Ontario. Cold dry air masses in winter originate in the Arctic ocean and tundra. Warm moist air masses originate over tropical areas.
Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ): is a complex mixture of very small (2.5 micron) liquid droplets or solid particles in the air . Major sources are cars, trucks, construction equipment, coal-fired power plants, wood burning, vegetation and livestock.
Acid Precipitation : is the broad term used to describe several ways that a weak solution of inorganic acids, such as nitric and sulfur ic acid, falls out of the atmosphere as rain, snow, mist and fog.
Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) : are primarily the lighter parts of oil or hydrocarbons. Emissions come, for example, from households (cleaners, cosmetics, lacquering), the metal industry (paints and coatings), the printing industry (inks and cleaners), oil refineries (loading, storage and transfer of hydrocarbons products), petrol stations (the pumping of petrol) and the dry-cleaning industry (cleaning solvents).
Nitrogen Oxide (NO x): is the generic term for a group of highly reactive gases, all of which contain nitrogen and oxygen in varying amounts. Many of the nitrogen oxides are colorless and odorless. Nitrogen oxides form when fuel is burned at high temperatures, as in a combustion process. The primary sources of NOx are motor vehicles, electric utilities, and other industrial, commercial, and residential sources that burn fuels.
Air Quality Index (AQI) : The Air Quality Index (AQI) is an indicator of air quality, based on hourly pollutant measurements of some or all of the six most common air pollutants: sulphur dioxide, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, total reduced sulphur compounds, carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter .
Transboundary Air Pollution : is air pollutants that originate in the United States and are brought into Canadian air space as part of a large air mass .
Air Quality Exceedance Day : is any day when the AQI is greater than 50.
Concentration : the relative amount of a substance mixed with another substance. An example is five parts per million of carbon monoxide in air or 1 milligram/liter of iron in water .
EPA : refers to the Environmental Protection Agency in the United States.
Land
Aquifer : an underground layer of rock and sand that contains water
Base Flow : The portion of river surface flow which remains after deduction of storm flow.
Boreal Forest : a northern forest comprised of trees such as black spruce, jack pine and tamarack.
Core Natural Area : The area of habitat essential in the breeding, nesting and rearing of young, up to the point of dispersal of the young.
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Indicator Species : A species whose status provides information on the overall condition of the ecosystem and of other species in that ecosystem. They reflect the quality and changes in environmental conditions as well as aspects of community composition.
Geographic Information System : A computer system designed for storing, manipulating, analyzing, and displaying data in a geographic context.
Provincially Significant Wetlands (PSW) : A wetlands that score high under the provincial wetland evaluation protocol.
Representative Sample : A sample that has approximately the same distribution of characteristics as the population from which it was drawn.
Stewardship Agreement : A voluntary agreement that commits the signatories to caring for land and associated resources in order to pass healthy ecosystems to future generations
Wetland Complex : a series of wetlands in close proximity to each other and joined together hydrologically.
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