SMART CITY NARRATIVES – WORKING PAPER 3 Decarbonising Public Transport in Kong

John Ure For the Inter-Modal Transport Data Sharing Programme January 2021 Table of Contents A. The Environment ...... 2 The Scope of the Problem and of the Solution ...... 2 Health Costs and Benefits ...... 3 B: Decarbonising Public Transport in ...... 5 1. Taxis ...... 5 2. Ferries ...... 7 3. Trams and Trolley Buses ...... 8 4. Public Light Buses (PLBs) ...... 10 5. Franchised Single and Double-Decker Buses ...... 12 5.1. Battery Electric Buses (BEBs) ...... 13 5.2. Recharging/Refuelling Infrastructure ...... 15 Batteries and Recharging ...... 15 Business models ...... 16 Hydrogen Fuel Cells ...... 17 Fuel Cells versus Batteries ...... 17 6. Walking ...... 19 Connectivity ...... 20 7. ...... 23 Annex A: Electricity or Fuel Cells ...... 26 Annex B: Central Estimates of Life-Time Cycle Cost Estimates ...... 27 Annex C: Batteries ...... 34 Annex D: An ITF Model for Urban Passenger Transport ...... 36

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Smart City Narratives A. The Environment This section of the Report deals with ways in which the Data Trust model can assist in public policy making for decarbonising public transport using the Exchange Square PTI Proof-of-Concept model. The first step is to understand the scope of the problem and the nature of challenge. The second step is to make simplifying assumptions for the purposes of the initial analytics and/or obtain better detailed data on emission levels per vehicle/km. The Scope of the Problem and of the Solution Smart cities do not prematurely kill their citizens through poor air quality, and in large numbers. Given that air pollution contributes to global warming and to climate change smart cities take effective preventative measures and those that don’t are not smart. The solutions in part lie in the development and application of new and innovative ‘green’ technologies and in part in the will to use them effectively by understanding their social impact and the costs and the benefits involved. Premature deaths and the loss of work time and of productivity cost societies significantly in both human and dollar terms – the so-called Value of Statistical Life or VOSL – and minimising these costs constitute the immediate benefits, while the longer term benefit is the prevention and reversal of global warming. On the other side of the equation are the dollar costs of adopting the preventive measures, for example, in the case of public service vehicles such as buses, ferries, taxis and trams, the dollar costs of replacing motorised vehicles driven by internal combustion engines with electric vehicles driven by battery or fuel cells plus the building a recharging/refuelling infrastructure.

But e-vehicles (EVs) and other applications such as digital technologies that consumes electricity, driven by batteries or by hydrogen fuel cells – hydrogen being the most common element on the planet – come at several costs. The major cost is their generation. Power stations mostly exude carbon; hydrogen extraction exudes methane, both greenhouse gases (GHG). Electricity generation is estimated to be the largest single source of carbon (67%) in Hong Kong.1 Another growing cost is the disposal of toxic waste from spent batteries and components of digital devices – there are more microchips in a family car than onboard the first space craft to the moon. It is not in the scope of this Report to examine the challenges of power generation, but to note that they are relevant to the pace of adoption of pure EVs as internal combustion engines (ICEs) and hybrid vehicles are phased out.

The practical options seem to be twofold: (i) ) phase out ICEs gradually by introducing more hybrids until such time as all ICEs can be eliminated; (ii) phase out all vehicles driven by ICEs as soon as they can be replaced by EVs irrespective of cost. The former policy option is driven by two considerations. First, EVs remain in their development stage, the recharging infrastructure has still to be built, and heavy vehicles such as double-decker buses which need regularly recharging to complete their schedules may not be technically or commercially available until the mid-2020s. Second, it has been suggested that since EVs raise the demand for electricity their introduction together with tackling the issue of power generation should be synchronised because as one source of pollution falls

1 Council for Sustainable Development (2020) Report on Public Engagement on Long-term Decarbonisation Strategy https://www.susdev.org.hk/download/report/council_report_e.pdf

2 another may increase. However, while a shift to EVs in general will raise the demand for electricity generation, the methods of tackling the problems of power generation are independent of the ways in which power is used, while the impact of roadside pollution is so immediate on pedestrian health it needs to be prioritised. This shifts the balance of argument to the second policy preference, but inevitably subject to the availability of funds which for public transport implies some level of subsidy. The cost-benefit analysis follows below. Meanwhile, if an immediate or a very short term wholesale shift to EVs is not practical, a move to hybrid vehicles can at least achieve some instant reduction in tailpipe emissions. Health Costs and Benefits The following paragraphs estimate the health costs of pollution arising from the over 6,000 franchised public buses in Hong Kong. Health costs are typically counted as the Value of Statistical Life (VOSL) attributed to premature deaths arising from pollutants together with the costs associated with visits to doctors, time spent in hospitals with respiratory diseases associated with pollution, and the resulting loss of productivity.

The difficulty is there have been two major studies in Hong Kong over recent years (2011 and 2016) of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) and the Economic Impact Assessment (EIA) of pollutants, one by the School of Public Health, the University of Hong Kong (HKU) published in the Open Epidemiology Journal (2011) 2 and one from the School of Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) and posted on the website of the Environmental Protection Department (2016),3 and they come to widely differing estimates of the EIA. Using the CUHK model, this Report arrives (see below) at an estimate annual health cost of HKD800 million, but the cost would be considerably less using the HKU model.

At the centre of the analysis is an estimation of the RR (Relative Risk) to a baseline level of pollutants. The base line is typically that of the World Health Organisation (WHO) of 10μm/m3 for 3 PM2.5 and 40μm/m for NO2. In the case of Hong Kong, the levels used in the CUHK 2016 study were 3 3 28.6μm/m for PM2.5 and 52.7μm/m for NO2. The difference between the two levels is referred to as the attributable fraction. According to the CUHK model using 42,000 total deaths recorded in 2012, the estimated number of premature (preventable) deaths was 6,308 and the total health costs came to a staggering HKD99.55 billion.4 But the question is how much of the total arose from franchised public bus and (PLB) emissions.

An estimate of the source of these pollutants in 2007 was 53% from Hong Kong and the rest from outside the territory.5 Using this estimate In the absence of more up-to-date data, the total cost due to local pollution can be re-estimated at around HKD52.8 billion. An estimate published in 2014 of the percentage of air pollutants in Hong Kong that were due to road transport were as follows: NO2 19%, and PM 14% respiratory suspended particulates and 17% fine suspended particulates.6 Using as a ballpark figure 17% overall, and making the assumption that the total health cost of pollutants can

2 The Open Epidemiology Journal 2011:v4:pp.106-122 ‘Assessment of the Health Impacts and Economic Burden Arising from Proposed New Air Quality Objectives in a High Pollution Environment’ Hak-Kan Lai, Chit-Ming Wong, Sarah McGhee and Anthony Hedley. Copy available from https://benthamopen.com/ABSTRACT/TOEPIJ-4-106 or upon request [email protected] 3 EPD (2016) Developing an Instrument for Assessing the Health and Economic Impacts of Air Pollution in Hong Kong: Final Report https://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/sites/default/files/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/studyrpts/files/instrument_impacts_air_pollution.pdf 4 Premature deaths from pollution is a global phenomenon. Across 41 countries of Europe in 2018 there were an estimated 470,000 premature deaths (379,000 in the EU-28) according to the EU (2020) Report No 09/2020 Air quality in Europe https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/air-quality-in-europe-2020-report 5 Civic Exchange (2007) Relative Significance of Local vs. Regional Sources: Hong Kong’s Air Pollution https://civic- exchange.org/report/relative-significance-of-local-vs-regional-sources-hong-kongs-air-pollution/ 6https://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/sites/default/files/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/air_quality_objectives/files/RT%20Paper%202_2016.p df

3 be assigned according to their percentage contribution to the whole, the annual cost of pollutants from road transport comes to almost HKD9 billion. It is estimated that 95% of road pollutants arise from commercial traffic such as buses and heavy trucks,7 so the total health costs arising from heavy commercial vehicle emissions would be HKD8.6 billion. In 2019 there were around 124,000 commercial vehicles registered by the Transport Department,8 of which close to 9% were buses and light public buses (green and red mini buses), so using these proportions the total health costs that might be assigned to single and double decker buses and PLBs alone would be around HKD800 million annually.

Below it is assumed that by, say 2025, a new all-electric bus will cost around HKD4 million and replacing over 6,000 buses would therefore cost upwards of HKD24 billion, not including the recharging infrastructure, nor additional drivers if required due to possible recharging delays requiring additional buses to complete schedules. At this cost the payback period in terms of health costs avoided would be 30 years, including a reduction of over6,000 premature deaths in year one if all buses were converted in one year and cumulatively by180,000 over 30 years.

Using the HKU’s Hedley Institute model, the number of preventable deaths is estimated at 1,860 and the EIA from the three categories of premature deaths, visits to GPs and hospitalisations and lost productivity as USD2.58 billion or HKD20 billion after adjustment to Hong Kong’s Air Quality Standard Objectives (HKAQO)9 – although the HKAQO has itself been criticised as inadequate by the HKU School of Public Health in 2011,10 and the Clean Air Network.11 Clearly the gap between just under HKD100 billion and HKD20 billion is substantial. If all the estimates are reduced by 4/5th the financial payback period would stretch into several generations of citizens, while the cumulative reduction in premature deaths over the extended period would exceed one million.

Box 1: Methodological Differences in Health Cost Estimates

The reasons for such variance in estimates has to be explained by the methodologies used – although the actual death data used by the Hedley model is an average of 2000-2004 (35,064 deaths) and by the CUHK is for 2012 is notably higher (43,917 deaths)12 – together with the assumptions made, for example of the Value of Statistical Life (VOSL). A key difference between the two approaches is, according to the author of the CUHK paper, that in the CUHK model “only the impact of long-term exposure to air pollution” is estimated, whereas the HKU was “designed as a communications tool of the effects of short-term exposure to air pollutants on health.”13 The critique of this approach is that the levels of pollution are not constant over a year. It seems that the HKU/HEI model uses a highly granulated bottom-up approach, “predicting annual pollution levels” (p.108) and then estimating the number of deaths hourly for the pollutants and aggregating them over 24 hours and from there extrapolating to annual projections using the WHO model and an RR to extrapolate the number of likely deaths, using a VOSL of USD1.28 million to calculate the cost. By contrast, according to Dr Thach of the HKU, the CUHK model multiplies “the attributable fraction of a pollutant RR-1/RR by the total number of deaths per year - resulting in the total number of deaths attributable to a pollutant per annum. This potentially

7 https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr18-19/english/panels/ea/papers/ea20181219cb1-319-4-e.pdf 8 https://www.td.gov.hk/filemanager/en/content_4883/table41a.pdf 9 https://www.aqhi.gov.hk/api_history/english/report/files/aqr96e.pdf 10 https://www.hku.hk/press/news_detail_6375.html 11 http://www.hongkongcan.org/doclib/2012%20Air%20Quailty%20Review%20-%20ENG_v3.pdf 12 https://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B10100022019MM11B0100.pdf 13 Email 4th November 2020 from Prof Tze Wai Wong, School of Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong.

4 inflates the number substantially 14…” Another difference is that the HKU accounts for the inter- relatedness of four pollutants on health, while the CUHK model assumes the effects of PM2.5 and N02 are independent and additive. Overall, the CUHK approach appears to be more top-down, using the same variables but estimating the proportion of actually recorded deaths that could be premature due to air pollution and using a VOSL of USD2.02 million. Hovering somewhere between these extremes will lie the real figure; in reality the answer would become apparent very shortly after all buses became electric.

There are countervailing costs. The cost – and the possibility – of generating electricity from non- renewable sources, or capturing hydrogen without a methane as a by-product, is an unavoidable issue that has to be addressed in terms of Hong Kong’s commitments to the Paris Agreement on climate change; and the costs of building a recharging (for e-vehicles) and refuelling (for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) infrastructure - see Annex A. Some of the facilities for buses and commercial vehicles could be shared, and maybe for taxis also, but not really for private cars. Building such an infrastructure could integrate with multi-modal transport initiatives because e-vehicles could share much of the same recharging and refuelling infrastructure, especially all forms of public and heavy commercial vehicles, along with vehicle diagnostics facilities and passenger multi-modal transport information systems at points of interchange.

B: Decarbonising Public A targeted outcome of the HK Smart City Blueprint (2017)15 is for citizens to “enjoy more environmentally friendly transport modes, including use of cleaner fuel in vessels to improve air quality and address other environmental concerns.” This is meant to apply to all forms of motorised public transport: buses, the green and red public light buses (PLBs), ferries, trams and taxis. By far the major polluters by number are the buses, PLBs and taxis. In reverse order: 1. Taxis Summary – There appear to be constraints, mostly to do with battery technology, holding back the advent of e-taxis, but these constraints may well be solved by mid-2020s. In the meantime, the major reason holding back the adoption of low-carbon or no carbon taxis appears to be the recharging times during which a taxi cannot ply for business. Until that issue is addressed, other issues such as the cost of adoption cannot be solved.

There are over 18,000 licensed taxis in Hong Kong, 98% of them using fossil fuel either as diesel or in the form of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) which is supposedly cleaner than diesel, but without constant maintenance the emission levels remain dangerously high, a fact recognised by the Environment Protection Department (EPD) since at least 2013.17

Source: EPD Roadmap On Popularisation Of Electric Vehicles16

14 Email 30th October 2020 from Dr T.Thach, School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong. 15 PwC for the OGCIO (2017) HK Smart City Blueprint https://www.smartcity.gov.hk/doc/HongKongSmartCityBlueprint(EN).pdf and https://www.smartcity.gov.hk/?lang=en_US 16 EPD (2021) Hong Kong Roadmap On Popularisation Of Electric Vehicles https://www.enb.gov.hk/sites/default/files/pdf/EV_roadmap_eng.pdf 17 Legco Panel on Environmental Affairs (June 2013) Retrofitting Franchised Buses with Selective Catalytic Reduction Devices https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr12-13/english/panels/ea/papers/ea0614cb1-1269-1-e.pdf

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Around 1,200 of the LPGs are hybrids, imported since 2019 by Crown Motors, a subsidiary of Inchcape and sole importer of the Toyota Comfort Hybrid taxis in the territory. According to Michael Chan Ting-bond COO of Inchcape, the new hybrids will cut fuel costs by half using a combination of hydrogen fuel cell electricity while driving in densely built-up urban areas and LPG in more open environments by achieving just under 20km per litre of LPG compared to just under 10km for older taxis. They are therefore not pure e-taxis but represent to half-way house prior to suitable e-taxis becoming widely available. The government response is to consult on a road map to be introduced in 2021 under the city’s Clean Air Plan while Inchcape is suggesting government should offer incentives for drivers to switch to hybrids.18 However the 2021 roadmap referenced above commits government only to LPG taxis while small-scale trials of various e-taxi models are being conducted in Lantau Island and Sai Kung and “various government departments have been working together to identify appropriate locations in the above two areas to set up [100kW] quick EV chargers for e- taxis.”

Another step has been to inject a further HKD800 million into the renamed New Energy Transport Fund (previously the Pilot Green Transport Fund) to subsidise transport sector ‘green’ innovations , including for goods vehicles, taxis, light buses, buses, vessels, motor-cycles, non-road vehicles, and others.

Eventually, by converting to electric, including hydrogen hybrids, taxis which can easily accommodate hydrogen fuel tanks, could make shared use of recharging poles with other forms of public transport, and shared use of hydrogen refuelling stations with other commercial and private vehicles, spreading the costs involved. The EPD did trial e-taxis but in 2017, after a two year trial, abandoned the scheme due to “[h]igh production cost, limited service life, long charging time [emphasis added] and low energy density of e-vehicle batteries are the key constraints for electric vehicles to take up commercial transportation duties…” adding “A taxi under normal operation cannot spare about four hours a day for charging.”19 Internationally, the outstanding challenge does seem to be the recharging of e-taxis and ways in which to render a recharging infrastructure commercially viable.20 Therefore:

Suggestions • Government does need to plan a way to provide quick e-recharging/refuelling stations for e- taxis beyond the provision of private recharging facilities at various carparks. Specialised facilities could be shared at least in part with other modes of public transport, such as PLBs and possibly at bus terminals during hours when buses are not fully utilising the facilities. Sharing will spread the costs and reduce the need for new locations. Unlike GMBs, taxis are flexible in their routing. • In the case of hydrogen hybrid taxis there is a general need to equip petrol stations with hydrogen pumps and hydrogen storage. • A business case may exist for a third party to provide ready-to-go recharged batteries for taxis and other public service vehicles.

18 SCMP (July 2020) Hong Kong taxi distributor says including hybrid models in electric vehicle road map will reduce emissions in near-term https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3094763/hong-kong-taxi-distributor-says-including-hybrid-models 19 YP Discover News (May 2017) Hong Kong government’s electric taxi trial backfires https://www.scmp.com/yp/discover/news/hong- kong/article/3055185/hong-kong-governments-electric-taxi-trial-backfires 20 IEEE Transactions On Vehicular Technology (June 2020, Vol. 69, No. 6) Can Charging Infrastructure Used Only by Electric Taxis Be Profitable? A Case Study From Karlsruhe, Germany https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=9006907

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2. Ferries Summary – pollution from ferries is at last being addressed by trials of in-harbour electric ferries and hybrid diesel-electric propulsion ferries to the outer islands. The trials are not scheduled until 2022-23 and by that time feasible alternatives to diesel may be available. Ferries offer an especially attractive mode of transport but their inter-connects with other modes – taxis, PLBs, MTR, franchised buses – could be upgraded, for example, by extending the Exchange Square catchment area down to the harbour front as a pedestrian landscape with improved walkability.

Given Hong Kong’s high reliance upon marine traffic, pollution from vessels is particularly damaging. The EPD has launched two pilot schemes, one for in-harbour Electric Ferries and one for hybrid ferries under the Vessel Subsidy Scheme21 following a technological feasibility Summary Report commissioned in 2017.22 The trials will run for two years 2022-2023 involving the four cross-harbour operators who run seven vessels and six hybrid ferries on six outer island routes. The Report 2017 estimated e-ferries could reduce in-harbour pollutants SO2, NOX, PM10, PM2.5, HC and CO by 1.3 tonnes, 79.4 tonnes, 1.6 tonnes, 1.5 tonnes, 1.1 tonnes, and 14.3 tonnes, respectively. Replacing outer island ferries with hybrid electric ferries would further reduce these pollutants by 8.2 tonnes, 485.9 tonnes, 9.2 tonnes, 8.4 tonnes, 6.8 tonnes and 87.1 tonnes respectively. The hybrid CODLOD (Combined Diesel-Electric or Diesel Engine) was recommended for the outer island ferries whereby battery power would provide propulsion and diesel onboard power. The advent of hybrid ferries that do away with diesel altogether must await the later 2020s.

In 2018 with a subsidy of HKD3 million under the Pilot Green Transport Fund, Star Ferry upgraded the 55-year old Morning Star to a hybrid diesel-electric propulsion vessel. The upgrade followed a less successful pilot under the same fund in 2017. According to Transit Jam the journey across the harbour is smoother, less vibration and cleaner, but suffers a high-pitched scream at maximum thrust.23 This may support the advice emphasised in the Report 2017 that “new vessels should be designed and built, instead of retrofitting in-use ferries.” In good weather the ferries are an attractive means of transport, including with tourists and they permit the carriage of bicycles for first mile, last mile commuting as well as for leisure. In light of this:

Suggestions • Consideration should be given to upgrading ferry terminals in the Hong Kong harbour to airport standards, making them more than just travel terminals. As they are privately run this would of necessity require public funding. • Extending the Exchange Square catchment area down to the ferry piers by creating an attractive environment to replace the unattractive long walkway bridge to shops and transport hub at Exchange Square and upgrading the current taxi and PLB space adjacent to the piers. It would be ideal for a trackless tram/trolley service (see below).

21 Legco Panel on Environmental Affairs (January 2020) A Series of Measures to Improve Environment and Air Quality https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr19-20/english/panels/ea/papers/ea20200122cb1-336-4-e.pdf 22 Transus Consultants (December 2017) Provision of Service to Identify Green Ferry Options that are Technically Feasible in Local Context: Summary Report https://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/sites/default/files/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/studyrpts/files/GFS_summary%20report_eng.pdf 23 Transit Jam (July 2020) Hybrid Engines On Test For Star Ferry Again https://transitjam.com/2020/07/14/new-hybrid-engines-on-test- for-star-ferry/

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3. Trams and Trolley Buses Summary – Technology is allowing emission-free trams and trolley buses to become ‘trackless’, substituting optical guidance system for rails and replacing catenary overhead wires with pantographs. But the most likely application is in new towns connecting to outer districts where spatial planning is more flexible. Application to older crowed urban areas would call for a redevelopment of roadways occupied by cars to car-free zones devoted to pedestrian piazzas and public transport vehicles.

Trams and Trolley buses are making a reappearance in cities globally 24 decades after they were replaced by buses and the private car, 25 although the tram never went away in Hong Kong. Running on tracks embedded in the road, trams have been traditionally more restricted in their movements than trolley buses, but a new generation of ‘trackless trams’ or what China’s CCRC, the world’s largest manufacturer of rail stock, calls Autonomous Rail Rapid Transit (ART), has arrived. These trackless trams replace tracks with an optical guidance system using sensors and replace steel wheels with rubber tyres mounted on railway-like bogeys (see video).26 However, these e-vehicles are not a substitute for Hong Kong’s traditional tram winding its way through crowded streets but, as it does not require rails and is comprised of two or three carriages of 10 metres each, certainly a rather less expensive way to offer a light rail service.

Each tram has sensors that allow then to track Diagram 1 their own routes – see Diagram 1 – but at around 30 metres in length they need suitable roads and regulations permissive. They run entirely on batteries that can be recharged at stations in 30 seconds or at terminals in 10 minutes. According to one report from Australia the costs of trackless trams works out at between AUD6-8 million (HKD34-45 million) per kilometre compared with conventional light rail at between AUD80-120 million (HKD450-680 million).27

‘Trackless Trolley buses’ that dispense with most of the catenary or overhead wiring and/or use pantographs for recharging their batteries are another substitute for light rail. Hong Kong conducted a feasibility study in 2001 on whether trolley buses could be used in densely crowded urban areas but concluded that the cost of finding suitable substations for their recharging and the visual and fire-risks associated with overhead wiring close to buildings were too great.28 Their advantage over traditional trams is flexibility of movement, especially if hybrid powered by batteries permit the trolley to become independent of the overhead wires for part of the route 29 – see Diagram 2. One study found that “the battery assisted trolleybus is the most cost-effective bus system for high

24 https://www.sustainable-bus.com/trolley-and-tramway/trolleybus-market-a-growing-demand-thanks-to-zero-emission-operations/ 25 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-51034523 26 The Conversation (October 2019) Trackless trams v light rail? It’s not a contest – both can improve our cities https://theconversation.com/trackless-trams-v-light-rail-its-not-a-contest-both-can-improve-our-cities-125134 27 https://theconversation.com/why-trackless-trams-are-ready-to-replace-light-rail-103690 28 Correspondence 20th November 2020 with Dr Dorothy Chan, ex-Deputy Commission for Transport, Head of Logistics and Transport, HKU Space 29 “Hess of Switzerland, one of the main trolleybus producers can offer the option of a battery range extender.” https://www.busworld.org/articles/detail/5269/electric-buses-the-evidence

8 capacity lines.”30 The reality is that e-trams without rails and e-trolley buses without overhead wires and light rail systems are converging as technology advances.

Diagram 2: Trolley bus route with and without overhead wires A study by Civic Exchange as early as 2002 concluded that “If local power generation is efficient and is at least moderately reliant on natural gas - and both prerequisites hold true in Hong Kong - replacing buses with trolley buses and trams along certain routes will not only improve street level air quality but also result in lower overall pollution and energy consumption in Hong Kong.”31 Their study examines the shortcomings of a 2001 study by

Source: www.sciencedirect.comTransportation Research Procedia 40 (2019) 229–235 the Transport Department A Feasibility Study of Introducing Electric Trolley Buses into Hong Kong but which came to a similar conclusion, that a system of modern trams (wider) and e-trolleys could be suitable for new development areas and areas with few degree of incline. Civic Exchange points out that “Reluctance to concede some additional road space appears to have superseded the obvious benefits of wider, faster, and more comfortable modern trams… [but] Modern trams could be an integral part of local transport in new town developments as well as in some older urban areas. The major limitations of trams are that they are restricted to flat or nearly flat areas and, being heavy, may require strengthening of roadbeds. However, trams are well suited to reclaimed areas, which tend to be flat, such as the northern shoreline of Hong Kong Island, the Kowloon peninsula, and parts of the . Trams can also be used imaginatively in conjunction with pedestrian schemes… [And] Unlike other clean technologies, such as fuel cell, electric battery, or hybrid vehicles, electric trolley buses and modern trams are already available and commercially viable.” (pp.44-46). Since 2002 advances in technology, notably the use of track sensors to do away with rails, and ways of recharging of batteries to do away with overhead cables, are opening up new opportunities for trams and trolley buses.

Suggestions • There seems to be a strong case for adopting zero emission trackless trams/trolleys for flexible routing in new towns, in the New Territories and in other relatively open areas as a low-cost alternative to public light rail. • In heavily congested urban areas trackless trams/trolleys would only be suitable if there were a wholesale re-planning of streets to provide a ribbon of connected pedestrian-only areas inclusive of cycling and e-vehicles for the handicapped. • Creating ribbons of connected pedestrian-only piazzas would not require wholesale redevelopment but rather a redesign of street and walkways. • These spaces could adopt a tiered system of access by vehicles: • Level 1 would allow emergency vehicles, public transport vehicles and taxis

30 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352146519301966 31 https://civic-exchange.org/wp-content/uploads/2002/06/24-200206URBAN_SustainableTransportDirectionsOpportunities_en.pdf

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• Level 2 would allow delivery vehicles, but restricted by time of day/night and by weight/emission ratings • Level 3 would allow private e-vehicles to restricted areas within the ribbon where vertical parking and recharging facilities would be available • Level 4 would allow other vehicles with appropriate restrictions and a road pricing scheme.

4. Public Light Buses (PLBs) Summary – Over 4,000 PLBs using LPG are responsible for 8% of respirable suspended particulates and 4% of nitrogen oxides emitted. The technical details of changing them to an all-electric fleet, which will require a change in design with rails on their roof to synch their batteries with a pantograph recharging mechanism, maybe more straightforward than the approvals process for trials. It might therefore be time for transport and environmental issues to come under a single overarching authority where data sharing and planning are complementary.

PLBs in Hong Kong by fuel used Of the 4,350 mini-buses 77% are Green PLB (GMB) with fixed routes and the rest Red (RMB)32 with variable routes but excluded from motorways so as not to compete with GMB. While LPBs constitute only 0.6% of all vehicles they are nevertheless responsible for about 8% of respirable suspended particulates and 4% of nitrogen oxides emitted,33 so their conversion to electric needs to be a priority issue. Government established an interdepartmental e-PLB Task Force in 2019 consisting of nine government agencies plus advisory groups, an indication of two things: first, many of these Source: EPD Roadmap On Popularisation Of Electric Vehicles agencies need to be involved in an approval

process for tests to be implemented in public spaces, including the Buildings Department which is not actually a member of the committee;34 second, the apparent complexity of what is, in principle, a fairly straightforward pilot project, yet one that involves several crucial parties, such as the maker of the buses, the bus operators, the supplier of the charging apparatus, the construction site such as a terminal or depot or on-route bus stop, the supplier of the power, the management, monitoring and data-recording of the pilot, a series of planning approvals and business contracts, for example covering equipment failure and liability issues. Unless a process such as this is given priority status across all the departments concerned, which would require an overarching coordinating authority, the bureaucratic process is bound to be slow.35 There would seem to be an argument for bringing transport and environmental issues under one authority where data sharing and planning are complementary.

32 https://www.td.gov.hk/en/transport_in_hong_kong/public_transport/minibuses/index.html 33 https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr19-20/english/panels/ea/papers/ea20200122cb1-336-4-e.pdf 34 The Task Force comprises representatives of the EPD, Electrical and Mechanical Services Department, Government Property Agency, Housing Department, Innovation and Technology Commission, Lands Department, Transport Department, Architectural Services Department, Highways Department, representatives of the Hong Kong Institution of Engineers, as well as academics and experts of electric vehicles technologies. 35 The word ‘bureaucracy’ tends to be synonymous with slowness, but in the work of Max Weber (1864-1920) bureaucracies existed because they were the most efficient means of policy administration. How efficient is determined by their governance.

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In 2020, Government earmarked HKD80 million for a 12-month trial starting 2023 of up to 40 e-PLBs starting with GMBs. The pilots will involve quick charging facilities at termini, PTIs at Kwun Tong, Kowloon Bay, and the tourism node at Kai Tak, and elsewhere. The facilities will offer “air- conditioned waiting halls with seats, free Wi-Fi service and interactive display panels.”36 Timetable information will derive from installed location detection devices.37This is certainly a step in the right direction and contrasts with the facilities at most PTIs and ferry terminals. Making facilities attractive and with shops and other amenities will encourage their better use and generate revenues.

As of January 2020 the view of the Environment Bureau (ENB)/the Environmental Protect Department (EPD) was that ‘fast charging’ using a pantograph would only require 10 minutes with several chargings per journey. But owing to a lack of suitable PLBs equipped for pantograph charging – it requires rails on the roof of the bus and a Wi-Fi connection to help manoeuvre the bus into position – the first trial of e-PLBs has been delayed until mid-2023 by which time PLBs designed and manufactured by the Hong Kong Productivity Council (HKPC) should be available. A tender for the pantograph and back-up plug-in chargers for installation at the new Kwun Tong PTI which is due to open early 2021 was issued by the EPD in October 2020.38 However, Green Mobility Innovations Ltd (GMI)39 a Hong Kong-registered manufacturer of PLBs is already collaborating with Siemens and the Hong Kong Science & Technology Park (HKSTP) to run tests.40 There are several manufacturers of Pantographs (see Diagram 3) using a common OppCharge standard, 41 such as TGood 42 and Siemens. A word of warning is that methods of ‘fast charging’ may more rapidly degrade the charging components on the bus adding to the lifetime costs.43

Diagram 3

Source: TRANSIT JAM 44

36 https://www.enb.gov.hk/sites/default/files/pdf/EV_roadmap_eng.pdf 37 http://www.pccw.com/assets/Common/files/press-release/2020/Sep/20200914e%20HKT%20TD%20green%20minibus.pdf 38 HKG SAR October 2020) Press Release https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202010/15/P2020101500414.htm 39 http://www.gmi-hk.com/portfolio/gemini-public-light-bus/ 40 Interview (15th October 2020) with Thomas Chan, Senior Manager, Green Technology Cluster, HKSTP https://www.linkedin.com/in/thomas-chan-07627559/?originalSubdomain=hk 41 https://www.oppcharge.org/ 42 http://tgood.com/int/en/pages/about 43 https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-electric-buses-benefits-outweigh-costs 44 Transit Jam (October 2020) Fast Chargers For Electric Minibuses To Descend On Kwun Tong https://transitjam.com/2020/10/15/fast- chargers-for-electric-minibuses-to-descend-on-kwun-tong/

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Trials will tell how viable the pantograph solution is, with the question of land and space to locate them at points along the numerous LPB routes perhaps being the major challenge. Therefore

Suggestions • Data and spatial analysis of bus routes, times and passenger requirements using the HKU Data Trust or some similar facility should be used to identify ideal locations for recharging points. • Wherever possible, recharging facilities should be in locations offering the greatest opportunities for sharing to spread costs. A staggering of the recharging schedules might be an efficient way to avoid queues of vehicles. Again the Data Trust analytics could be helpful. • Bringing the Transport and Environmental departments and possibly others under a single roof could be an effective way to manage the governance of future transport planning with a view to reducing emissions as a major contribution to Hong Kong’s carbon commitments. • A standing committee rather than select or ad hoc inter-departmental committees embracing at least Transport, Housing, Environment, Highways, Planning, Development and the OGCIO would serve the long-term interests of Hong Kong meeting its climate change objectives and promoting inter-modal transport data sharing policies as an essential component of smart city planning and development.

5. Franchised Single and Double-Decker Buses Summary - all the evidence suggests that double-decker battery electric buses (BEB) suitable for Hong Kong’s terrain, climate and typical route distances won’t become widely available until post- 2024. Only then will their purchase price also become competitive with diesel or hybrid buses. The estimated price is around HKD4 million per bus and with over 6,000 buses a total replacement would cost not less than HKD24 billion. Single-decker BEBs are close to being available today, subject to a supply of batteries that are of the right quality.

In all cases the availability of an adequate recharging infrastructure, or refuelling infrastructure in the case of hydrogen fuel cell powered e-buses, is a constraint, but not an insurmountable one. Problematic is the time to recharge the batteries. Fast charging for around 5-to-10 minutes using pantographs located at selected bus stops could be manageable for single-decker e-buses travelling shorter routes using smaller batteries that do not eat into passenger space on the buses. Equally 5-to-10 minute refuelling for hydrogen fuel cell hybrid double-decker buses at bus terminals or shared petrol stations is a feasible, possibility using much larger batteries supported by conventional batteries for periods of acceleration or when additional power is needed. Otherwise the options seem to be either 3-to-4 hours overnight plug-in charging of BEBs which may not be sufficient to manage the longer routes in which case either hydrogen fuel cell e-buses may be needed or shorter bus routings introduced, or quick-charging facilities are located along longer routes, or third-party battery recharging companies could be employed to provide fully powered-up battery replacements at strategic points along bus routes. Of the trials that have so far taken place, none has proved wholly successful suggesting the need for • a more developed manufacturing supply chain for e-buses and batteries • a more pro-active approach towards building the recharging/refuelling infrastructure • an urgent focus upon reduced carbon or carbon-free supplies of electric power and/or hydrogen fuel • bring forward policy and business model options for the supply of battery recharging and hydrogen refuelling facilities • a clear decision to accelerate the replacement of all Euro IV buses by the mid-2020s in light of the health benefits, notably reduced premature deaths and respiratory illnesses and cardiac failures resulting from tailpipe emissions.

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5.1. Battery Electric Buses (BEBs) The total bus fleet in Hong Kong currently stands at around 6,000 buses,45 of which close to 96 per cent are double decker, so to replace them with BEBs and assuming that by 2025 and with a discount they cost HKD4 million each,46 it would require about HKD24 billion in today’s money.47 The total capital costs could be less if prices fall further by the mid-2020s, against an estimated annual cost to arising solely from emissions from buses and PLBs of around HKD800 million (see above), a payback of around 30 years but at a considerable saving of premature deaths estimated at over 6,000 a year. A caveat is if the transition to e-buses requires a higher ratio of e- bus: diesel than 1:1 due to the fact that e-buses may have distance restrictions arising from the limits of recharging that pose the need for more buses and therefore more drivers over the lifetime of the buses. In Berlin it is estimated their additional lifetime costs could be the equivalent of HKD20 billion.48 Commenting on the conversion to e-buses in Shenzhen, a Legco paper in 2019 notes that the ratio of bus replacement was 1.2 electric for 1 diesel which raises the costs somewhat and the lifetime costs of the fleet including the additional drivers.49

Commercially, it is the lifetime cost that is important, including the costs of maintenance, wear and tear and the replacement of parts and components and batteries. Lithium-ion batteries are judged to have 7-8 years expectancy or half the lifetime of a bus although companies like China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) claim a new generation of batteries that can last in cars – which are far less demanding – up to 16 years 50 One study in the US using 2017 data assumed 12 years.51 The benchmark for many of these developments is Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk’s ‘Battery Day’ announcements.52 Added to these costs is the cost of re-charging apparatus, its installation and the electricity consumed. It is estimated that on their own, no bus operator could afford to cover all these costs for at least 5 years according to a McKinsey analyst.53 There are numerous lifetime cost studies and models available for operators and governments alike, many of them available from the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory.54 Typically they find that while the capital costs of creating an e-bus fleet with an effective recharging infrastructure can be higher than using diesel buses – although this finding is “strongly refuted” by at least one Hong Kong expert – the lower operating costs more than compensate, but subject to the distances to be covered. The advantages can be lost over longer distances that require larger and heavier batteries depending upon the charging methods in use. On the other hand, these can be offset for the operator if the external health costs of emissions are factored into a grant or tax concessions. This is a crucial policy decision beyond the powers of the operators to determine. In the 2021 paper, government announced the New Energy Transport Fund (NET Fund) had approved funding for two of the

45 HKG Press Release ( December 2018) LCQ16: Electric buses https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201812/12/P2018121200670.htm 46 In private correspondence, one expert advised a ballpark figure for an e-bus double decker in Hong Kong today would cost around HKD5 million. By 2025, economies of scale in production, improvements in battery technology and bulk-buying should lower that price. 47 By pre-Euro and Euro buses 1-3 were phased out in 2020. 48 The Berlin Spectator (May 2020) Berlin: 5 Billion Euro for the Most Elegant Electric Buses https://berlinspectator.com/2020/03/09/berlin-5-billion-euro-for-the-most-elegant-electric-buses/ 49 Legco Panel on Environmental Affairs (January 2020) Promoting the Use of Electric Vehicles https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr18- 19/english/panels/ea/papers/ea20190128cb1-487-3-e.pdf 50 Bloomberg (June 2020) The Electric Car Battery Boom Has Screeched to a Halt, For Now: Longer term, the technology still is on track to become more powerful, cheaper and ubiquitous.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-17/the-electric-car-battery-boom- has-screeched-to-a-halt-for-now 51 NREL (June 2020) Financial Analysis of Battery Electric Transit Buses https://afdc.energy.gov/files/u/publication/financial_analysis_be_transit_buses.pdf 52 Popular Mechanics (September 2020) Elon Musk Finally Reveals His Grand Plans to Revolutionize the Battery https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a34114885/elon-musk-tesla-battery-day-recap/ 53 Financial Times (November 2019) Number 214 to Highgate leads UK’s electric bus charge https://www.ft.com/content/5c81dee4-ffe1- 11e9-b7bc-f3fa4e77dd47 54 NREL website www.nrel.gov/publications

13 franchised bus companies (FBCs) to embark upon trials of e-double decker buses “in the next two years.”55 Hong Kong’s Approach – Retro-fitting? A report issued 2015 by Clean Air points out that there is a noticeable difference between testing new buses – the standard for testing is the Portable Emission Measurement System (PEMS) 56 that avoids reliance upon the manufacturers’ claims, a necessary precaution after a series of emission falsifications by car manufactures57 – and actual performances when buses are on the roads travelling their entire routes, noting the Euro V bus in particular does not meet the required NOx limits.58 For the moment, tests in Hong Kong along the Franchised Bus Low Emission Zones (FBLEZs) – of which there are three located in Central, Causeway Bay and Prince Edward Road – are confined to the Euro V or Euro Vl.59

Compared with other cities Hong Kong has been quite hesitant in testing electric buses. For example in London by 2019 there were 200 electric buses and the aim is to have all 9,200 buses electric by 2037.60 In 2019 it was reported Paris is ordering 800 new zero-emission e-buses to combat the city’s smog problem ahead of the Olympic Games in 2024.61 In 2018 the EPD reported that few suitable models of electric double-decker buses were available on the market and “their passenger carrying capacity and operational efficiency still fail to fulfil the local operational needs (including long daily service hours, high peak passenger loadings, the need to tackle hilly terrains as well as intense air- conditionally in hot and humid summer, etc..” For battery-powered single decker buses the tests showed they could only cover a range of up to 150 km with high levels of air-conditioning, whereas the daily requirements were typically 200 km - 300 km. The 2021 government report is optimistic that over “the next few years … battery capacity is further enhanced to support more than 300 km per day after a full charge.”62 There is also the problem of finding adequate space and power capacity for daytime recharging at bus terminals and transport interchanges.63 The same report mentions trials had shown that super-capacitor single-decker buses can be fully charged within 20 minutes but may thereafter only travel 20-30 km depending upon whether uphill or level roads. The charging stations are located at a KMB bus terminal and a KMB bus depot.

As early as 1999, KMB used diesel oxidation catalytic converters (otherwise known as SCR or selective catalytic reduction) on 1,800 of its vehicles to reduce emission levels, however the “decision was not prompted by regulatory requirement, but rather the company's desire to support broad initiatives to make Hong Kong a world-class city.”64 This voluntarist approach was somewhat reflective of Hong Kong’s market-led laissez-faire policy of “positive non-intervention” of the period

55 https://www.enb.gov.hk/sites/default/files/pdf/EV_roadmap_eng.pdf 56 EPA PEMS (Portable Emissions Measurement System) https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?Lab=OTAQ&dirEntryId=72469 57 Clean Energy Wire (May 2020) "Dieselgate" - a timeline of the car emissions fraud scandal in Germany https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/dieselgate-timeline-car-emissions-fraud-scandal-germany 58 Clean Air (November 2015) Guideline: Cleaner Buses http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:jQWsU4CNWHgJ:www.cleanair- europe.org/fileadmin/user_upload/redaktion/downloads/BUND/10_B2_Update_Guideline_- _Cleaner_Busses_EN.pdf+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=sg&client=firefox-b-d 59 HKG Press Release (Dec 2019) Tightened emission requirements of Franchised Bus Low Emission Zones to Euro V standard take effect today https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201912/31/P2019123100268.htm 60 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-17/the-electric-car-battery-boom-has-screeched-to-a-halt-for-now 61 France 24 (April 2019) Paris orders 800 new electric buses to fight smog https://www.france24.com/en/20190409-paris-orders-800- new-electric-buses-fight-smog 62 https://www.enb.gov.hk/sites/default/files/pdf/EV_roadmap_eng.pdf 63 HKG Press Release ( December 2018) LCQ16: Electric buses https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201812/12/P2018121200670.htm 64 True (December 2018) Real-world emissions from London buses https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/TRUE%20London%20Bus%20Fact%20Sheet%2020181218.pdf

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– the policy was announced as abandoned by the Chief Executive in 2015.65 Signs of pro-activity by government came in the Policy Address of 2010, which announced the retro-fitting of Euro-buses to Euro VI hybrid standards to reduce tailpipe emissions but the buses were only to be phased out at the end of their life by 2019 and 2026 respectively, such was the lack of perceived urgency. In 2013 a Legco paper explained that part of the drive came for “working with the Mainland to reduce the concentration levels of ozone, which can promote the conversion of the zero emissions from 66 vehicles to NO2 at the roadsides, in the Pearl River Delta region.” The retro fitting was completed by 2017, and was followed by a plan in 2019 to subsidise a retro-fit the nearly 4,000 Euro IV and V buses to the tune of HKD38 million “with reference to London’s experience.” 67

Suggestions • Given the size of Hong Kong’s total bus fleet it would seem rational to buy BEBs when they are available on behalf of all the private operators to maximise price discounts and after-sales services. • Government subsidies and offsetting incentives should factor in the health cost savings to Hong Kong citizens, estimated in this paper at around HKD800 million annually including over 6,000 premature deaths arising from transport pollutants using estimates by the CUHK’s School of Health and Primary Care • The earlier the transition to e-buses the greater the accumulated health cost savings over subsequent years

5.2. Recharging/Refuelling Infrastructure Summary – to the cost of e-buses must be added the capital costs of the recharging/refuelling infrastructure. In the example from Singapore, the costs for single decker e-buses were bundled into the price of the bus. New business models are arising whereby in some cases battery suppliers or third parties manage the infrastructure. If a hydrogen fuel cell option is introduced for double decker buses then a Well-to-Wheel supply chain needs to be created. This could well be shared with private commercial vehicles, taxis and cross-border GBA traffic. Using the Data Trust at the HKU would be one way to model the level of demand and optimal locations for such an infrastructure.

Batteries and Recharging Batteries and a recharging or refuelling infrastructure needs to come together. In the case of Singapore for example, 40 single decker e-buses in 2018 cost a total of SGD32 million or around SGD800,000 each (HKD4.6 million). A further 10 single decker and 10 double decker e-buses cost around SGD8 million and SGD10 million, that is HKD5 million for each double decker. These prices were inclusive of the recharging infrastructure.68

The chargers consist of (i) 150kW chargers for overnight charging, each charger connecting to 2 buses so ten chargers can recharge 20 buses within 4.5 hours; and (ii) 450kW roof-top pantograph ‘fast chargers’ located at “key interchanges” which can recharge a bus in under 10 minutes.

65 ChinaDailyAsia (August 2015) The economic era of ‘positive non-intervention’ is finally over https://www.chinadailyasia.com/opinion/2015-08/12/content_15302803.html 66 Legco Panel on Environmental Affairs (June 2013) Retrofitting Franchised Buses with Selective Catalytic Reduction Devices https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr12-13/english/panels/ea/papers/ea0614cb1-1269-1-e.pdf 67 Legco Panel on Environmental Affairs (December 2018) Progress on Improving Roadside Air Quality https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr18- 19/english/panels/ea/papers/ea20181219cb1-319-4-e.pdf 68 “As part of tender requirements, tenderers were also required to provide the necessary charging infrastructure to support their fleets. ABB revealed in a press release on July 2019 that they would be supplying the electric bus charging infrastructure for BYD & ST Engineering as part of this tender.” Land Transport Guru (October 2018) 60 Electric Buses Procured by LTA https://landtransportguru.net/electric- buses-procured-by-lta/

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Recharging smaller batteries works for single decker buses but for larger batteries as required for double decker buses, overnight plug-in recharging is necessary. Business models Business models such as outsourcing, lease-back and facilities sharing are a way to reduce operator costs. The role of the Chinese battery manufacturer BYD in Shenzhen is a case in point where there is a clear synergy between BYD’s manufacturing business and its venture in a battery recharging infrastructure. The Shenzhen Bus Company (SBC) operates the world’s first all-electric fleet of 16,000 vehicles,69 within an ecosystem including BYD and two power sources, China Putian Energy and the China Southern Power Grid.70 However, as in Hong Kong, finding suitable and available locations for the recharging infrastructure is a major challenge and the SBC has been renting locations and entering agreements with recharging pole manufacturers Yonglian and ZTE,71 including ZTE wireless recharging technology using mobile charging vehicles.72

Another example comes from the UK where Zenobe Energy which has specialised in providing off- grid electricity storage to support grid peak-loading times. The Newport Bus company in Wales has purchased Yutong electric buses from China and outsourced to Zenobe Energy who charge an annual fee. The bus operator only needs to know that recharged batteries are always available. In 2020 Zenobe secured a GBP20 million loan from NatWest Bank to finance enough batteries to power about 100 electric buses owned by private transport firms and councils around the UK.73

Suggestions • Hong Kong’s two power companies could easily offer recharging services as well as the power if regulations permit, and opportunities should be explored for new entrants specialising in off- grid and renewable energy storage systems. • As the Environmental and Energy Study Institute has pointed out, in the US many commercial delivery and truckling companies, such as FedEx, DHL and UPS, are purchasing their own recharging infrastructure which could be shared by BEBs reducing the costs and search for locations.74 • Given the volume of cross-border trucks in Hong Kong journeying to and from the Greater Bay Area, recharging points, either fast charging or hydrogen fuel cell pump refuelling could serve numerous modes of transport and even act as transit points for passengers switching modes. • A Pubic Transport Interchange would be a natural location for recharging facilities, for use by BEBs, PLBs, taxis and other on-demand services and data sharing in the form of vehicle diagnostics and digital passenger information boards.

69 In 2005 Hong Kong-based KMB became a founding shareholder of the Shenzhen Bus Company. Transport International (January 2005) KMB's Investment in Shenzhen Bus Group Company Limited http://www.tih.hk/english.php?page=others&file=press/news2005011901.html 70 http://en.szbus.com.cn/intro/1.html and http://en.szbus.com.cn/intro/18.html 71 EVHUI.Com (June 2017) 5,698 operating vehicles of Shenzhen Bus are purely electric, and the government is fully committed to "charging" https://evhui.com/54398.html 72 ZTE (October 2013) Wireless Power Charging Is Ready for Cars NOW! https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjj- 770o8fsAhVq63MBHSlcChUQFjABegQIBBAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwiki.unece.org%2Fdownload%2Fattachments%2F12058681%2FEVE- 07-09e.pdf%3Fapi%3Dv2&usg=AOvVaw3lIfyvAjVoSB_R6sH-9ra5 73 The Guardian (June 2020) UK electric buses boosted by innovative £20m battery deal https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/23/uk-electric-buses-battery-deal-zenobe-energy 74 EESI (October 2018) Fact Sheet: Battery Electric Buses: Benefits Outweigh Costs https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-electric- buses-benefits-outweigh-costs

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Hydrogen Fuel Cells Fuel cells generate electricity through the reaction of different chemicals, in the case of vehicle fuel 75 cells most often hydrogen (H2) and oxygen (O), plus an electrolyte – which can be liquid or a solid – with a waste product of water H2O. In a vehicle the hydrogen is stored in a tank and fed into the cell to generate electricity. See Diagram 4.

Although HFCs produce lower levels of power than batteries, they compete on distance which makes them suitable for commercial vehicles - but requiring large tanks they are less suitable for cars – and can be recharged within minutes and therefore have the additional advantage of not requiring a separate electric recharging grid.76 By 2020 the first hydrogen fuel cell buses were in use in the UK,77 and in least 14 cities across the EU.78 Other Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) may use biomass, for example Sorghum, to produce ethylene and FCEVs can currently travel up to 300 km after one refuelling, or 500 km according to other estimates. 79

Diagram 4 – A hydrogen fuel cell vehicle

Source: https://www.bmw.com/en/innovation/how-hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars-work.html#pwjt-1

Fuel Cells versus Batteries Comparing the costs of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) with battery electric vehicles (BEVs including buses or BEBs) or fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEVs) depends upon the research source and the measures used. Using lifetime cost of ownership or total cost of ownership (TOC) is ideal but based upon ‘guestimates’ of future costs and prices. For example, one research report concludes that compared to FCEVs, by 2030 “both the BEV and FCHEV have significantly lower lifecycle costs.”80 A very different conclusion is reached in a 2019 report by Deloitte that estimates while FCEVs are currently approximately 40% more expensive than BEVs on a per 100km basis “the

75 Smithsonian Institute (2020) Fuel Cell Basics https://americanhistory.si.edu/fuelcells/basics.htm 76 Power Technology (October 2019) Realising the hydrogen economy https://www.power-technology.com/comment/standing-at-the- precipice-of-the-hydrogen-economy/ 77 Fuel Cell Electric Buses (August 2020) Towards clean public transport with Hydrogen https://www.fuelcellbuses.eu/ 78 Fuel Cell Electric Buses (August 2020) Demo's in Europe https://www.fuelcellbuses.eu/category/demos-europe-0 79 ICCT (October 2017) Developing hydrogen fueling infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles: A status update https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Hydrogen-infrastructure-status-update_ICCT-briefing_04102017_vF.pdf 80 Research Gate (January 2010) Comparative analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222517464_Comparative_analysis_of_battery_electric_hydrogen_fuel_cell_and_hybrid_vehicl es_in_a_future_sustainable_road_transport_system

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TCO of FCEVs is forecasted to be less than BEVs by 2026… Overall, we estimate that the TCO of FCEVs will decline by almost 50% in the next 10 years.”81 Part of the problem lies in the reality that manufacturers will price above marginal costs until the market becomes fully competitive.

The big disadvantage of HFC, apart from the methane and carbon involved in hydrogen capture,82 is the current lack of refuelling facilities at regular petrol/diesel stations which have to be supplied either by pipeline or tanker trucks or the hydrogen captured onsite at the refuelling station. This is the so-called Well-to-Wheels supply chain as illustrated in Diagram 5.

Diagram 5: Well-to-Wheel Fuel-Cell Supply Chain

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/jec/activities/wtw

Suggestions • Develop hydrogen capture using renewable energy sources including from the Greater Bay Area (GBA) – Hong Kong alone cannot produce sufficient renewable energy • Plan strategically for a Well-to-Wheels supply chain • Develop station hydrogen refuelling facilities that can be used by taxis, HFC buses and other heavy commercial vehicles • Develop the refuelling facilities with cross-border GBA transport in mind • Use the Data Trust at the HKU to analyse the ideal locations for such facilities

81 Deloitte (January 2020) Fueling the Future of Mobility Hydrogen and fuel cell solutions for transportation https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cn/Documents/finance/deloitte-cn-fueling-the-future-of-mobility-en-200101.pdf 82 In Germany the Clean Energy Partnership Initiative (CEP) reckons 50% of the hydrogen is already generated using renewal energy and aims to have 130 refuelling stations by 2022 allowing for 60,000 FCEVs on the roads. - https://cleanenergypartnership.de/en/clean- energy-partnership/what-is-the-cep/ . In Asia, Japan is the leader – ICCT (October 2017) Developing hydrogen fuelling infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles: A status update - https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Hydrogen-infrastructure-status-update_ICCT- briefing_04102017_vF.pdf

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6. Walking Summary – Walking is the mode of mobility for all but the disabled, and transport and environmental policies need to give far more prominence to both. Walking for leisure has received recent policy focus with ‘Walk in Hong Kong’ for example, but walking the first and last miles to work, school, shops, etc., has been under-reported and under-represented. As much walking involves some degree of inter-modal transport, a good starting point would be gathering reliable data which has been sadly lacking over the years as the emphasis has been far more on motorised forms of mobility. The evidence that does exist suggests that more covered walkways connecting to MTR and bus stops through interconnected buildings allowing the sharing of air con at zero marginal cost and offering landscaped surroundings, shops and other facilities would be environmentally friendly and could encourage reduced use of private vehicles.

Walking is the mode of mobility that universally links to other modes of transport, but it is rarely measured as such. According to information from a government department, the measurement of pedestrian footfall is mostly carried out by property developers as part of their planning process. In the future services such as Google’s Adsquare Real-Time Footfall Measurement and similar apps may be providing the data.83 What has changed most recently are some tentative steps towards street improvement for pedestrians as part of an as yet unpublished report commissioned from Mott MacDonald,84 and an important aid to planning is the release by the Lands Department of 3D visualization of pedestrian walkways and by the Transport Department of topographical features such as terrains and infrastructures.85 However, there appears as yet to be no systematic pedestrianization nor introducing a tiered approach to motorized transport that favours public vehicles and e-vehicles over others. In addition, the Transport Department has conducted a “Pedestrian Connectivity in Hong Kong Island North from Wan Chai to Sheung Wan – Feasibility Study” and a “Consultancy Study on Enhancing Walkability in Hong Kong – Feasibility Study”, based up which there will be “trial measures for enhancing walkability in HK in the two pilot areas of Central and Sham Shui Po, including rearranging traffic signs and removing non-essential railings.”86 Walkability is also a part of the consultancy study by Arup for the Energizing Kowloon East Office (EKEO) of the Development Bureau to redesign parts of the industrial zone Kwun Tong.87

Besides these welcome initiatives there still needs to be more reliable data on walking habits if the 3D visualisations are to be populated with real activities and much greater consideration of the ways in which to incentivise walking both as a way to avoid the use of private cars and as a healthy way of living.88 This needs to involve a greater focus on walkways, making them attractive and rendered low or pollutant-free, for example connected covered walkways between buildings sharing their aircon at zero marginal cost and offering shops and cafes along the way. This in turn needs to involve town

83 https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-03-20_HK_Mobility_Report_en-GB.pdf 84 HKG Press Release (May 2020) Legco: Improvement to Pedestrian Facilities https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202005/13/P2020051300347.htm 85 HKG Press Release (December 2020) 3D Pedestrian Network and 3D Visualisation Map datasets made free to public https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202012/03/P2020120300289.htm 86 https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr20-21/english/panels/tp/papers/tp20201120cb4-139-6-e.pdf 87 Five studies in total: Development of Pedestrian Wayfinding Signage System for Hong Kong – Feasibility Study (on-going); and in 2017: Proposed Pedestrian Environment Improvement Works in Kwun Tong Business Area - Ngau Tau Kok Portion; Pedestrian Connectivity in Hong Kong Island North from Wan Chai to Sheung Wan – Feasibility Study; Pedestrian Environment Improvement Scheme for Transformation of Kwun Tong Business Area – Feasibility Study; Review of Assessment Mechanism for Hillside Escalator Links and Elevator Systems and Preliminary Feasibility Studies – Feasibility Study. 88 For a study of the positive relationship between walkability and health see https://www.citywayfinding.com/walkability-of-cities-is- linked-to-health-scientific-study-proves/

19 planning and the architecture of linked-buildings, subways, etc. The two reports referred to above could lay the basis for such changes.

The previous study of walkability was in 2011 when the Transport Department commissioned a territory-wide survey 89 including motorised and non-motorised modes of travel.90 Of motorised trips, the study estimated 84% involved only one form of motorised travel, mostly by public transport (rail or bus). 14% of trips involved two motorised legs and 2% involved more than two. Most multimodal motorised trips involved the MTR (33%)91 followed by franchised buses (27%), public light buses (19%), ‘others’ (13%) and special purpose buses such as school buses (8%). Interchange between motorised modes of transport was most frequent where travel involved ferries where 69% involved at least one other motorised mode of transport.

For non-motorised modes of mobility, of those walking the ‘first or last mile’ to their destination over 75% of residents walked 5 minutes or less to their point of transport, as illustrated in Diagram 6. The time to walk at the interchanges was 5 minutes or less for 85% of pedestrians. But some people are prepared to walk longer up to 15 minutes under sheltered and air conditioned walkways – or where there were escalators – to the different types of public transport. The average walking time outdoors under sheltered conditions ranged 10-12 minutes. Respondents generally placed a higher value on walking time than upon travel distances and cost – except for the lowest income households – implying a ‘door-to-door’ service is highly desirable. The premium given to time came to the fore when asked whether a major increase in travel time would result in a change of mode of transport or a change in the hour of travel, say from peak to off-peak. The respondents clearly would choose to change their mode of transport, which naturally correlates with the purpose of their journey, to work, to school.

Diagram 6

Source: Transport Department 2011

Connectivity Walking, whether for leisure or for more functional activities such as going to work, school or shopping, is clearly desirable. The NGO DesigningHongKong has produced interesting proposals for connecting overhead walkways in crowded urban districts to create a latticework of skywalks, in districts such as Tsim Sha Tsui and Admiralty/Wan Chai,92 albeit still open to the elements.

89 https://www.td.gov.hk/filemanager/en/content_4652/tcs2011_eng.pdf 90 The report uses the term mechanised, but rightly excludes bicycles, so motorised is the preferred term. 91 Since 2011 the MTR network has expended considerably implying >33% by 2020. 92 DesigningHongKong (Website) Elevated park to complete the footbridge network in Wan Chai https://www.designinghongkong.com/edm/index.php?option=com_acymailing&ctrl=archive&task=view&mailid=345&key=oltItJKr&subid =179375-XDA6YtbbOM5kny&tmpl=component

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Walking for any purpose is also likely to involve two or more modes of transport and therefore inter- connectivity is an inherent aspect of walkability.93 In 2017 the Planning Department issued a consultation paper outlining its approach,94 followed up in 2018 with a Walk Hong Kong strategy paper,95 and at the same time the Transport Department issued an outline paper.96 These were influenced by a framework proposed by Civic Exchange97 that identifies four conditions that could encourage citizens to walk, and makes an important distinction between the link and space functions of walkways.

Civic Exchange: Making walkways attractive by making them • Smart – providing user-friendly information on walking routes, for example, to stations, bus stops, taxi ranks • Connected – enhancing pedestrian walkways, for example, covered air con walkways between buildings leading to transport hubs • Enjoyable – making walking a pleasant experience, for example, with green surroundings, street art and shops • Safe – providing a safe pedestrian environment, for example, wide well-lit and covered walkways

The Link function – providing efficient, comfortable and interesting walkways, e.g. to transport interchanges from shopping areas, from footbridges, etc. The Place function – providing environmentally enticing areas, e.g. plant green spaces around interchanges with fountains, sitting areas and surrounding art and shops The Combination – the 4-criteria framework for good walkability

Efficient to Walk Comfortable to Walk Interesting to Walk Possible to Walk Source: Civic Exchange Measuring and improving Walkability in Hong Kong, December 2016

Civic Exchange proposed a 10-item CEx Walkscore index accompanied by guidelines98 to be used by the public and a version for professionals to assess the walkability of different routes in different . As confirmed by the 2011 study, walking time is an important consideration for pedestrians, especially those going to work or eager to get home, and walking time could be reduced by improved walkways:

“For example, MTR patrons in Hong Kong on average would walk 500 metres or a 10- minute journey to the MTR station in a typically cluttered and crowded urban street environment. With better street design and pedestrian facilities, such as widened sidewalks and prioritized pedestrian crossings, MTR patrons could complete over 800 metres in 10 minutes, instead of 500 metres, as they can walk more efficiently. As a result,

93 Good Wayfinding also encourages a shift of mode away from private cars https://www.citywayfinding.com/city-wayfinding-can-be- justified-using-a-benefit-cost-ratio/ 94 Planning Department (February 2017) Hong Kong 2030+ Knowledge Sharing Seminar Liveability II: Rethinking Public Space and Walkability https://www.hk2030plus.hk/document/KSS_PPT/2nd_KSS/Rethinking_Public_Space_and_Walkability.pdf 95 Walk Hong Kong (Website) Background https://walk.hk/en/aboutus/background 96 Transport Branch (2019) 2019 Environmental Report of the Transport Branch https://www.thb.gov.hk/eng/psp/publications/transport/publications/TB%20Environmental%20Report%202019_en.pdf 97 Civic Exchange (December 2016) Measuring and Improving Walkability in Hong Kong: Final Report https://civic-exchange.org/wp- content/uploads/2016/12/201612URBAN_Walk2report-1.pdf 98 The guidelines are that walkways provide: accessibility and connectivity to nearby destinations, easy wayfinding, a safe, comfortable and healthy environment, equitable access, diversity and vitality, built on a human scale, streets as public spaces that require appropriate management, and integration with public transport (“walking offers the most natural, emission-free and healthy option for public transport patrons to complete the first-or last-mile of their journeys.”)

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the 10-minute walking catchment of an MTR station would be enlarged from a 500-meter radius to an 800-meter radius.”

In the 2017 Public Transport Strategy Study,99 the Transport and Housing Bureau outlined its plans for upgrading public transport interchanges (PTIs) setting aside HKD88 million to subsidise franchised bus companies to install electronic information boards and install seating, and pilot projects to include the improvement of the exterior design, enhanced access to Wi-Fi services, toilets, exterior refurbishment, brighter lighting, etc. “TD and the Architectural Services Department are in the course of identifying two sites for conducting the pilot projects … after consultation with the District Councils.” Throughout the document the focus is upon the management of these improvements by the operators rather than management by government whose focus is more upon (i) a rationalisation of transport services to meet the changing patterns of demand, for example, more bus routes serving hospitals as the population ages, (ii) creating guidelines and designs for operators to implement, and (iii) collaborating with other departments such as the Architectural Services Department and the Highways Department and with District Councils to bring about these changes. This rather laissez-faire approach – see above, it used to be called ‘positive non- intervention’ – includes the setting up of bus-to-bus (B2B) interchanges which is left to the private agreement of the bus companies. Presumably, the exceptions would be where town planning of new PTIs linked to shopping malls are under consideration.

Overall, surveys tend to find citizens are not particularly negative about walkability of Hong Kong. A study in 2010 (cited by Civic Exchange) estimated 39% of daily trips (not trip times) in Hong Kong were by walking,100 while Civic Exchange estimate 90% of these are feeding into public transport involving over 10,000 trips per hour. The 2010 report found that

“more than fifty percentage of people are satisfied with the existing pedestrian facilities in the city and those who are not happy feel the need of improvements in street lighting; clean, weatherproof and wider foot paths; reducing road traffic and speed; removal of obstacles along the walking paths and more crossing points. Among the nine variables that were evaluated in the field observational survey, walkways in commercial areas have the best infrastructures and level of service, including provision of facilities for the physically disabled. There is plenty of room for improvement in other areas, in particular the industrial areas.”101

Several things follow from this.

Suggestions • Over 50% satisfied leaves many who may be expecting improvements, and the guidelines expressed by Civic Exchange are a good starting point. 102 • There needs to be a much greater recognition of the needs of the physically disabled in the design and redesign of walkways. A heavily built up environment need not be a major challenge for disabled people. On the contrary with conveniently-placed braille signage and well-paved sheltered connected walkways with lifts and chairlifts for wheelchairs it should offer ease of mobility.

99 https://www.td.gov.hk/filemanager/en/publication/ptss_final_report_eng.pdf 100 Hung, Manandhar and Ranasinghe, (2010). “A Walkability survey in Hong Kong”, Proceedings of 12th International Conference on Mobility and Transport for Elderly and Disabled Persons (TRANSED 2010), Hong Kong, 2-4 June 2010 (USB) http://ira.lib.polyu.edu.hk/handle/10397/50308 101 Transport Research Board (2010) A Walkability Survey in Hong Kong https://trid.trb.org/view/1126939 102 A major constraint on creating an inviting outdoors environment is the lack of a cohesive policy for street management, often involving multiple government agencies and red tape as highlighted by a Civic Exchange report Managing Vibrant Streets (2018) https://civic- exchange.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Managing-Vibrant-Streets-for-web.pdf

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• Cleanliness and physical obstacles along walkways are specifically highlighted which suggests a need to go beyond simply clearing them away and to consider redesigning walkways and spaces along with rethinking the way they are managed to accommodate different modes of mobility – pedestrians, cyclists and motorised forms of transport. • Examples could include redesigning the layout of streets for pedestrians and cyclists and extending the role of electric trams or trolley buses at the district-level. • A further example would be shopping precincts adjacent to MTR stations and bus interchanges to encourage the use of public transport to minimise carbon emissions as recommended in a report for the World Resources Institute (2020) by Civic Exchange Pathways to Net Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050.103

7. Cycling Summary – There is a chronic shortage of data on cycling in Hong Kong so transport policies have been less evidence-based and more assumption-based. But even the scant data that does exist suggests that ‘functional’ cycling to work, to school, to shops, etc., is more prevalent that often assumed, and frequently it involves inter-change with other modes of travel. Further, that even in urban areas there is an, albeit small, under-estimated demand for cycling and that going forward the redesign of streets and walkways as part of a strategy to reduce air pollution and the use of private cars should see cycling as an important part of that strategy, following the lead of other global cities – see Paris box below.

A Transport Department survey by Arup in 2011 estimated 374,000 bicycles owned by households,104 but notes the absence of independent statistics on cycling and warns that as a result it may be under-estimated while recommending a survey focused on cycling.105 In fact a study of cycling in Shatin in 2008 carried out for the District Council by Dr Ng Sai Leung, director of the Centre for Environmental Policy and Resource Management at the CUHK, recorded over 150,000 bikes in that town alone, with 55.7% of families owning a bike and 33.5% of the population cycling more than once a week.106 However, in November 2020 in Legco the Secretary for Development answered a question about cycling data saying there was no need to collect utilisation data on bike paths as these were only “public recreational facility for leisure and recreational purposes.”107 This information is at odds with a survey done by Atkins (2004) for the Transport Department which reports that the Travel Characteristics Survey (TCS) of 2002 shows weekday cycle trips were “mainly for functional purposes and that 60% of the trips were related to work or school.”108 It seems Legco was relying upon a separate survey of 6,000 households recording cycle trips undertaken during the previous 3 months of which 70% were for leisure, and work and school-related trips were around 14%. Of those 15 years + who knew how to ride a bike, only 3.5% had ridden to work or school over the previous three months. The data seems to suggest that both functional and leisure cycling are

103 Civic Exchange/World Resources Institute (June 2020) Pathways To Net Zero Carbon Emissions By 2050 https://civic-exchange.org/wp- content/uploads/2020/06/Hong-Kong-2050-policy-report_Final-20200626-1.pdf The report recommends (i) Transport Department oversight of the system should shift from decisions on matters such as specific bus routes to regulating at the whole-service level; (ii) the key service measure should be how long it takes to get from a public transport pick-up point to a destination; (iii) District councils should be provided with comparisons of actual and target service levels for their district and focus on the quality of the service level provided rather changes to individual bus routes. 104 Transport Department (February 2014) Travel Characteristics Survey 2011Final Report https://www.td.gov.hk/filemanager/en/content_4652/tcs2011_eng.pdf 105 Another cycling study by Arup was Study on Traffic, Transport and Capacity to Receive Visitors for Lantau - Feasibility Study (2017) 106 Provided by Martin Turner, Chair of the Hong Kong Cycling Alliance, 3rd December 2020. The weblink no longer works - Shatin as a Cycling City (沙田單車城市的進一步發展研究報告) http://www.cuhk.edu.hk/rao/research_profile/rpp0809/project/ssc_bm.pdf 107 https://transitjam.com/2020/11/11/govt-clueless-on-cycle-track-use-admits-sec-dev/ 108 Transport department (2004) Cycling Study: Final report https://www.td.gov.hk/filemanager/en/publication/cyclingstudy.pdf

23 important, the former mainly during weekdays, the latter involving greater numbers and probably more at weekends, and that only a minority of people 15 years+ who can ride do so. So by not maintaining data on cycling the level of demand for cycling to work, to school, to shops, to church, to gym, etc., is easily overlooked, exactly as the 2011 survey suggests.

And the 2011 survey supports this conclusion. The 2011 survey found that there were 347,000 bicycles owned by households and that 20% of cycling trips involved interchange with another mode of mobility. These were mostly Home-Based Other (HBO 45%) and Home-Based Work (HBW 43%) related trips, and 85% of these were made within the same district. Of all residents who had bicycles, over the three months prior to the survey interview, 12% had used them for business, commuting or school trips during weekdays and 28% had used them for other activities such as leisure. In other words, there were between 12% (41,640) and 40% (138,800) ‘regular’ (not necessarily daily) cyclists and 20% of them involved a mode of transport interchange.

The Transport Department says it is committed to encouraging ‘first mile, last mile’ use of bicycles to connect to public modes of transport has focused upon new towns and the New Territories to provide parking facilities, according to a Legco Paper May 2020, such as “over 330 bicycle parking spaces at the former Sheung Shui Park-and-Ride car park site, and the number of spaces will increase in phases to over 700 spaces in 2020… TD will continue to identify suitable locations at PTIs and near railway stations when opportunity arises.”109 Under the circumstances, ‘when the opportunity arises’ sounds a rather passive response, suggesting that raising the level of priority with greater collaboration with the Lands and Planning Departments is due. The Tragedy of the (Urban) Commons? Whether regular bike commuters who transfer to public motorised transport own their bikes or rent then on a daily basis is unknown owing to a lack of data. The Transport Department assumes the use of ADBRS (Automated Diagram 7 Dockless Bicycle Rental Services) is more likely by occasional leisure bikers, but their own data suggests this might not be entirely accurate – see Diagram 7.110 The peaks in demand are between 7am -8am and between 5pm and 6pm, that strongly suggests commuting.

Nevertheless, it remains unfortunately true that when a shared resource is abused by individuals indifferent towards the collective good – illegal parking, vandalism and abandoning bikes in unauthorised locations requiring clearance operations – the result becomes unsustainable. In Hong Kong the initial enthusiasm peaked in 2018 at seven ADBRS companies operating 26,000 bikes, but rapidly declined to three

109 Legco Panel on Transport (May 2020) Improvement works for cycle track networks in new towns and operation of automated dockless bicycle rental services https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr19-20/english/panels/tp/papers/tp20200515cb4-532-5-e.pdf 110 Provided by Martin Turner, Chair of the Hong Kong Cycling Alliance, 3rd December 2020.

24 companies operating 5,200 bikes by 2020. Government policy has been to introduce a Code of Practice for the operators,111 including “their bicycles will not be deployed in the urban areas.”112

The prohibition on ABDRS in urban areas seems to be in line with the Transport Department’s view that urban cycling is dangerous and there is little demand for it, and at odds with the data that suggests there is a demand, albeit relatively small, for urban cycling. During COVID-19 the demand for cycling has surged. An article in the South China Morning Post in March 2021 cites Jason Lee, the managing director of Chung Yung Cycle in Sheung Shui, saying “sales suddenly spiked– as much as 45 per cent compared to 2019 figures – following school closures and the introduction of work-from- home arrangements in March last year.”113 One cyclist complains about the dangers of cycling in Hong Kong Island, adding “Hopefully the government will continue to build more bike lanes and dedicated cycling areas not only for promoting exercise, but also to encourage commuting and to reduce the impact of travelling on air quality and the environment.” COVID-19 has offered up the opportunity to rethink cycling in urban areas. Measures to reduce pollution on the roads could be married with measures to provide for cycling lanes and parking in pedestrian-only redesigned streets and walkways. Redesigning street layouts by connecting them and pedestrianizing them would not only clean the air but could actually boost people traffic by foot or by bicycle to shopping areas.

Suggestions • Hong Kong needs better and more up-to-date information on both walking and cycling preferences and options for citizens. • Based upon that information, Hong Kong would do well to firm up its programmes to encourage walking and cycling by creating more opportunities for both, creating more space for both at the expense of polluting vehicles, and by facilitating and encouraging multi-modal mobility, for example, providing storage for bikes in trains and buses. • In a cleaner, greener Hong Kong cycling in urban areas should be facilitated and no longer sacrificed to motorised vehicles. • There needs to be far more inter-agency urgency and planning given to these programmes with a significant reduction in the red tape of permissions and licencing that may be required. • Consideration should be given to an ombudsman with ‘mayor-like’ powers of coordination of Hong Kong’s response to climate change, and the cleaning and greening of Hong Kong • Hong Kong should replicate the best practices that are to be found in many other global cities – for example, see Paris below. • These changes will take time, so the journey needs to begin right away.

111 Transport Department (September 2018) Code of Practice (CoP) for Automated Dockless Bicycle Rental Services https://www.td.gov.hk/mini_site/cic/files/others/code_of_practice_en.pdf 112 Legco Panel on Transport (May 2020) Improvement works for cycle track networks in new towns and operation of automated dockless bicycle rental services https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr19-20/english/panels/tp/papers/tp20200515cb4-532-5-e.pdf 113 SCMP (21 March 2021) https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3126353/hong-kong-records-rise-sale-bicycles- amid-covid-19

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Source: Legislative Council Panel on Transport 15th May 2020

Paris – A City encouraging walking and cycling Paris is a compact city ideal for cycling, but with dense traffic congestion caused by private cars. Led by an energetic mayor, and as part of its own effort to meet the climate accords, Paris has a programme to encourage both walking (the Paris Pietons programme) and cycling (the Paris cycling plan 2015-2020). Seven city squares have been redesigned to shift space from vehicles to people with cars banned from long stretches of the riverside and 50% more space give over to walkers and cyclists. The plan aims to give 15% modal share of traffic to cycling, with bike parking at all Parisian railway stations, 10,000 new parking spaces by removing them from private cars, a real-time cycling app for routes, and buses will be required to provide storage spaces for bikes. The result is that by 2020 there has been over 40% increase in bike traffic since 2015.

Source: research by RA Valerie Pang

Annex A: Electricity or Fuel Cells Generating Green Electricity or Hydrogen for Fuel Cells Nuclear Fusion The Holy Grail of energy physics is recreating the Sun on Earth through nuclear fusion, which unlike nuclear fission produces no harmful radioactivity side effects. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has announced that its small SPARC reactor should be able to produce electricity by 2025.114 This would be the realisation of an insight of the 1930s.115 Renewables Generating sufficient electricity using renewable energy sources is a way off, and a transition to electric vehicles will add to demand. Currently less than 20% of the world’s energy supplies come from renewables, but annually the percentage is rising and costs falling, By far the most important source to date is hydropower with wind power growing rapidly as depicted by the chart below measuring in Terawatts. Hydro in some developing countries such as Brazil, constitutes around 45% of power consumption but in highly industrial countries such as the US, Japan, China and Germany the rates vary from 9% to 13% to 17%.116 However, according to the International

114 Power Technology (January 2020) Nuclear fusion: is halfway good enough? https://www.power-technology.com/features/future-of- nuclear-fusion/ 115 LLPFusion (2020) Brief History of Fusion Power https://lppfusion.com/technology/brief-history-of-fusion-power/ 116 Our World in Data (2019) Renewable Energy https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy

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Energy Agency wind and solar will overtake coal and gas globally as sources of power by 2024.117 For the full set of forecasts in which solar leads the growth see IEA Renewables 2019: Market analysis and forecast from 2019 to 2024.118 Chart 1

Source: Renewable Energy Generation (2020) https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy

Hydrogen and Biomass Hydrogen is the lightest and most common element known to physics, and along with biomass such as the use of sorghum, it can be used in fuel cells to create electricity with only water as the by product. Capturing hydrogen is the problem as it involves breaking down or ‘cracking’ methane (CH4 or one atom of carbon and four atoms of hydrogen) through a process known as steaming reforming with carbon dioxide as a side product. Strenuous research efforts are underway to capture the carbon before it gets released into the atmosphere – see for example research at the Institute of Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT).119

Annex B: Central Estimates of Life-Time Cycle Cost Estimates (GHG emissions and energy requirements) of urban transport modes per passenger (pkm) and vehicle (vkm) A study in 2020 by the International Transport Forum/OECD 120 applied the following model which can be used to estimate the carbon footprint of various modes of transport using different fuels and different ways of transportation, by land sea and air. In all graphics that follow the original Figure numbers have been retained.

117 World Economic Forum (November 2020) IEA: Wind and solar capacity will overtake both gas and coal globally by 2024 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/iea-wind-solar-gas-coal-oil-renewables-climate-change-environment/ 118 IEA Renewables 2019: Market analysis and forecast from 2019 to 2024 https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2019/power 119 https://newatlas.com/hydrogen-production-methane-without-co2/40502/ 120 Source: International Transport Forum/OECD (2020) Good to Go? Assessing the Environmental Performance of New Mobility https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/environmental-performance-new-mobility.pdf

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The Data Trust at the HKU – see Chapter 1, Final Draft Report – is ideally placed to work with such a model or any of its components.

The following figures are estimates of the Report compiled from global sources that are subject to variation and approximations – see page 22 of the ITF/OECD Report – hence “central estimates” of different modes of transport measured according to four components: vehicle manufacture, fuel type and consumption, road infrastructure type, nature of operational services, against two parameters passengers/Km (p/Km) and vehicles/Km (v/km). For example, an older design of diesel taxi travelling through narrow urban streets with numerous traffic light stops and ‘deadheading’ in search of passengers will produce far more GHG p/Km and v/Km than an electric bus using similar routes and possibly bus lanes.

The influence of the components will vary according to circumstances. Figure 12 illustrates the sensitivity of GHG from buses to these variations. “Figure 12 considers the cases of higher amounts of deadheading kilometres and a full reliance on dedicated bus lanes, it includes key examples of fuel/powertrain technology switching (namely to BEVs and FCEVs, also with zero carbon electricity) and also shows energy consumption per pkm of each case.”

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By definition, every mode of transport includes the carbon produced in its vehicle manufacture, even the shoes used for walking, and includes the carbon that goes into the construction of the roads it uses, the rails and the walkways. All forms of motorised transport consume some kind of generated fuel and the service levels will determine to period of operation and therefore fuel consumption levels.

The conclusions of the ITF which seem predictable are that “in the case of public transport, most of the sensitivity changes lead to limited variations of the GHG emission impacts, especially if compared with the magnitude of GHG emissions for private cars. Lower ridership, higher deadheading, the use of dedicated lanes, lower vehicle life, lower infrastructure life and increased frequency all lead to small relative increases in GHG emissions per pkm. The impact of lower ridership is particularly relevant for public transport operators weighing responses to Covid-19. Increases in ridership, vehicle and infrastructure lifetime and decreased frequency all lead to relative reductions in GHG per pkm. Dedicated lanes come with net energy savings thanks to lower energy use per vkm due to smoother traffic, but also greater emissions and energy use from the infrastructure component due to lower frequencies of use of dedicated lanes vs. conventional road space.”

Figures 2 and 3 measure GHG emissions and energy requirements respectively with regard to p/Km. Figures 4 and 5 measure both with regard to v/Km. Varying any of the four components will produce changes in the levels of GHG emissions, but the most important ratio because it embraces all four components is the total number of passengers travelling to the total number of vehicles on the road or (p/Km) / (v/Km). The higher the proportion of passengers travelling on buses (notably on e-buses) the rise in v/Km will outpace the rise in p/Km, but this will only reduce the rise or bring about a fall in GHG emissions if buses are electric battery or hybrid-electric fuel using.

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See notes from https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/environmental-performance-new-mobility.pdf

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The life cycle of GHG emissions in figures 2 and 4 below, and the energy requirements in figures 3 and 5 below, embrace estimates of the carbon created ‘well-to-wheel’ that is from electricity and hydrogen generation in power plants, along the ‘well-to-tank’ supply chain to the recharging points and pumps, and then from the ‘tank-to-wheel’ involving the vehicle design as the power is transmitted to the steering and the wheels. There is an argument that comes from some vehicle manufacturers that a balance approach needs to be taken so as not to rush into e-vehicles until electricity power generation can also be de-carbonised, however this is not convincing as a policy option for at least two reasons. First, tailpipe emissions are of immediate threat to pedestrians by producing particulates that are most easily absorbed into the lungs and need to be addressed with urgency. They are also an easy ‘win’ for regulators. Second, the growing demand for end-use electricity can only hasten the resources put into cleaner ways of generating power, whether it is market-led or state-funded.

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See notes from https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/environmental-performance-new-mobility.pdf

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See notes from

https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/environmental-performance-new-mobility.pdf

Multi-Modal

Figure 14 reports estimates of GHG p/Km for various combinations of multi-modal transport. The findings are summarised as follows:

• Combining buses or metro and urban trains with different forms of micromobility (shared e- scooters, bikes, e-bikes, electric mopeds) results in a similar level of GHG emissions per pkm as single use of either buses or metro and urban trains, especially when most of the distance is carried out on urban buses (i.e. when other modes have a feeder function).

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• Combining ridesourcing with public transport can mitigate the GHG emission and energy use impacts of these services provided that the combined trips actually expand public transport use by displacing car use. Under all the assumptions retained for the central estimates shown in Figure 2 to Figure 5, combining ridesourcing with high capacity transport services like metros and urban trains can maintain GHG emissions/pkm below those of ICE cars if the distance travelled in ICE-car-based ridesourcing services is below half of the total distance.

Annex C: Batteries The intermediate step of improviding the electricity storage capacity of batteries is currently one of the fastest developing areas of new technology. Among the advances is the speed up in charging of batteries. In one case to 80% of capacity within 15 minutes by the replacement of liquid- electrolytes inside lithium-ion cells with ceramic material to create solid-state batteries, 121 and in another recharing in 5 minutes by a company called StoreDot by replacing the use of graphite with semiconductor nanoparticles.122 A non-comprehensive review of the studies and reports points towards the mid-2020s when battery technology will become price competitiive for heavy vehicles such as double-decker buses and the life-cyle economics will warrant a wholesale replacement of non-electric bus fleets, but the planning for that needs to start now. For smaller vehicles such as mini-buses, taxis, delivery vans and cars e-vehicles will cost-in earlier – See below. At the turning point when e-vehicles become cheaper to buy as well as cheaper to run than ICE vehicles, the focus will shift fro price to distance between recharging, and the availability of, and access to, recharging points. The more shared points there are, and refueling stations in the case of hydrogen fuel cells, the easier it will be to spread the costs. Regulations that allow battery-recharging and replacement services to operate will be helpful.

121 Financial Times (20 January 2021) ‘QuantumScape pushed to prove its solid-state battery goes the distance.’ 122 The Guardian (19 January 2021) ‘Electric car batteries with five-minute charging times produced’ https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/19/electric-car-batteries-race-ahead-with-five-minute-charging- times?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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Source: The Guardian (22 January 2021) ‘Falling lithium battery prices’ https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/22/electric- vehicles-close-to-tipping-point-of-mass-adoption?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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Annex D: An ITF Model for Urban Passenger Transport

Source: ITF (2020), “Decarbonising Azerbaijan’s Transport System: Charting the Way Forward”, International Transport Forum Policy Papers, No. 87, OECD Publishing, Paris https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/decarbonising-azerbaijan-transport-system.pdf

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