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W E E K L Y D I G E S T 14 D E C E M B E R – 20 D E C E M B E R S Y R I A

Politics

Russia and Exchange Back-and-Forth Comments Over Syria Fighting between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the predominately Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria experienced a lull during the week, although the situation remains fluid as international powers continue to exert their influence in the region. On Sunday (15th January), Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, once again criticised Moscow and Washington for failing to abide by the removal of the People's Protection Units (YPG), the largest group within the SDF, in accordance with the safe-zone agreement concerning northern Syria. In response, Moscow put attention on the situation in Idlib, northwestern Syria, where Turkish-backed forces are also present, saying that “terrorist groups” are still active and accusing Ankara of failing to deal with them. It appears that Moscow appears to be leveraging Ankara's interests in northern Syria against those in Idlib.

UN Discusses Renewal of Humanitarian Assistance to Syria The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held a meeting on Monday (16th January) to discuss the renewal of the mandate to provide humanitarian assistance to Syria under UN Resolution 2165, which will expire in January 2020. The UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, warned that cross-border aid remains vital for 4.3 million people in Syria and that the mandate of the UN should be expanded. During the talks, Russia presented an alternative UNSC Resolution, calling for the mandate to be expanded for only six months and for the complete closure of two border crossings, one with Iraq and the other with Jordan. Taken with the ability to veto UNSC Resolutions, Moscow has a significant advantage in passing its version of the Resolution.

Assad Meets with Russian Deputy PM in Damascus The Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, met with the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Yuri Borisov, on Tuesday (17th January), with the two sides discussing economic cooperation and reconstruction. Following the meeting, Borisov announced that Russia would spend $500 million to modernise the commercial port of Tartus over the course of four years, while also planning to build railroads linking to Iraq to enable easier transport of goods between the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf. He added that a number of factories across Syria also received investments and that the capacity of these will be increased. The announcements suggest that Moscow is undaunted about the prospects of expanded sanctions while also highlighting that Damascus is now in full reconstruction mode and is seeking investments for it.

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Israel Defence Minister Once Again Issues Warning to Iran Israel's Minister of Defence, Naftali Bennett, reiterated his threats against Iran, warning that he will intensify steps against the Iranian presence in Syria. Bennett described the steps as continuous and involving increased operations in Syria, and expressed optimism that Iranian forces will be convinced to leave. Perhaps highlighting the increased Israeli pressure, there were reports on Tuesday evening that an Iranian arms depot in Sabikhan in Deir ez-Zour was targeted by suspected Israeli jets. However, Israel's increased efforts may bring it to closer confrontation with Russia. Overnight, some Israeli outlets reported that the Russian military opened fire on an Israeli drone that entered Syrian airspace overnight.

Kurdish Authorities in Northern Syria Attempt to Create Greater Unity The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AA), the political authorities ruling in the region, are continuing efforts towards greater international recognition and internal unity. On Tuesday evening, the AA announced the launch of a new initiative to bolster ties with the Kurdish National Coalition (ENKS), a coalition of opposition parties that also enjoy warm ties with many political parties in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq. The ENKS has historically enjoyed cordial relations with Turkey, although these have deteriorated over the past two years. Bringing the ENKS closer to the AA would therefore reduce what little influence Turkey holds over Kurdish groups in northern Syria and solidify Kurdish unity in the region. In related news, the AA also received unexpected backing from Egypt and the country’s president Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi, who expressed support for the cause of Kurdish nationalism, criticising the governments of Turkey and Iran in their policies against its Kurdish minorities.

Regional Powers Eye Up Syria’s Oil Wells Syria's oil fields appear to be attracting increasing attention from multiple sides involved in the country. Turkish President Erdoğan said that he would present a plan to use some of Syria's oil wealth for reconstruction efforts in the towns in the northern Syria safe-zone. A group of experts from Saudi Aramco also visited the Omar Oil Fields in eastern Syria at the behest of the United States in order to assess whether the sites can be improved and whether Aramco would benefit from investing in the wells. The Syrian Government's Parliament announced that it approved the signing of contracts for oil exploration with two Russian companies: Mercury LLC and Velada LLC. The deals cover oil exploration operations in two blocks in northern Syria as well as gas exploration in one block north of Damascus. In related news, the Syrian state-news agency, SANA, announced that production has resumed in the Sharifa 2 and Sharifa 104 natural gas wells in Homs and will increase total production by a million cubic meters.

Death of James Le Mesurier, One of the White Helmets Founders, Ruled as Turkish coroners announced that James Le Mesurier, the founder of Mayday Rescue that helped build the Syrian Civil Defence (White Helmets), died due to trauma sustained as a result of his fall. The coroners found no evidence of DNA belonging to another person. The assessment will likely support the police’s current position that he died as a result of suicide. However, speculation around the circumstances of his death will not abate. The Turkish Sabah newspaper recently published security camera stills showing Le Mesurier doing his weekly shopping prior to his death, citing them as proof of him not being suicidal.

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Russia Repatriates 8 IS Militants as Others Leave Al-Hawl Camp Authorities in al-Hawl Refugee Camp announced that 91 families, making up around 340 people, left the camp on Tuesday and returned to their villages in southeast Deir ez-Zour, as well as a smaller group of others to Homs and Damascus. The release of some of the people were secured through agreements with local tribes on grounds that many of them no longer have other support structures. The Russian Government also announced that it has repatriated eight Islamic State (IS) militants from al-Hawl, as well as some from the prisons of the Syrian Government. Russian press also reported that officials are conducting DNA tests on children to determine if any of them are from Russia. For its part, the Turkish Government announced that it deported four British IS militants to the on Friday.

Security

Fighting Intensifies in Southern Idlib as Syrian Government Forces Make Gains The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) launched a renewed offensive in southern Idlib on Thursday night (19th December), capturing a number of villages by Friday afternoon (20th December). The town of Ma’arat al-Numan, which has long been a bastion of both anti-Government and anti-extremist sentiment, has also been a focal point for heavy shelling and airstrikes throughout the week. On Tuesday, 22 people were reportedly killed after Ma’arat al-Numan and its surrounding areas, including the nearby town of Jarjanaz, were targeted by airstrikes. It remains to be seen whether the SAA and allied militia will attempt to make significant incursions into Idlib or incremental advances as with previous offensives.

Tensions Emerge Once Again Among Hard-line Opposition Factions in Idlib Pro-Opposition outlets reported that there have been renewed disputes between hard-line group Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the semi-official al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, Tanzim Hurras al- Din (THaD). On Friday (13th December), the THaD conducted a raid at the HTS headquarters in Muhanbal (Idlib), arresting the group's local commander. The HTS claimed that the raid came after local HTS officials warned the THaD against cutting off electricity pylons to sell them. In retaliation, the HTS arrested a number of known THaD figures including a commander named Abu Abdul Rahman al-Libi. However, it would appear that the tensions were contributed by, or have otherwise exposed, pre-existing hostility that existed since the battles in northern Hama where the HTS was defeated by the SAA, with the weekend’s incident merely serving to expose the simmering tensions.

IS Ups its Attacks on Syrian Government Areas in Country’s Eastern Desert Region Pro-Government outlets reported that the SAA and the National Defence Forces (NDF) were deployed on Wednesday (18th December) in the Syrian Desert following a series of IS attacks around the village of Shoula. Activists reported that the IS briefly took control of Shoula but was repelled, with fighting in the region on-going. Further north, two NDF fighters were killed after an IS attack near Ayyash. More troops were deployed on Thursday following another attack by the IS around Shoula. Pro-Government activists also warned that IS militants have set up fake checkpoints around Shoula using flags, ID cards and uniforms captured.

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