The Conservative Party, Policy Change, and Europe: 1997-2016 Tristan Martin To be submitted for the qualification of Doctor of Philosophy School of Geography, Politics and Sociology Newcastle University May 2019 i ii Abstract This thesis provides an analysis of policy change in the Conservative Party on the question of European integration between 1997 and 2016. The thesis answers two principal research questions. Firstly, in what ways did European policy change in the Conservative Party between May 1997 and February 2016? Secondly, what caused these changes in European policy and how can they be understood in relation to exogenous and endogenous factors? It answers these questions through a qualitative analysis of 36 original interviews with party elites, 119 speeches, 267 parliamentary statements, 290 newspaper articles, and nine manifestoes. Additionally, it has drawn on secondary quantitative survey data from Ipsos Mori, YouGov, and the British Social Attitudes Survey. It concludes that policy has moved incrementally over the period from a minimalist-Soft Eurosceptic position to a more revisionist-Soft Eurosceptic position with Hard Eurosceptic elements. Policy experienced periods of both stability and volatility depending on the internal and external political context. Theoretically, it advances an approach centred upon new institutionalist theories. It argues this better accounts for the underlying processes and mechanisms behind policy change in political parties. In doing so it provides an integrated approach which can be applied to the future study of policy change in other political parties. This thesis makes an original contribution to both the literature on the Conservative Party and European integration, and policy change in political parties more widely. It does so by providing an empirically systematic and theoretically informed analysis of the development of European policy, an approach lacking in previous research, covering a period in which changes in policy over Europe in the Conservative Party would contribute directly to the June 2016 EU Referendum. As such, it also makes an important contribution to our understanding of the UK’s historical path towards Brexit. iii Acknowledgements I would like to thank all the academic and professional staff, and PGR colleagues past and present, at the School of Geography, Politics, and Sociology for all their help and advice while I have completed this thesis. Special thanks, of course, go to Dr Nick Randall and Dr Alistair Clark for being my supervisors. Additionally, I would also like to express my gratitude to anyone else who might have given me support or guidance over the past four years. Family, friends, and random people I have now forgotten the names of. I have appreciated all of it, even if it didn’t look like it at the time. I would also like to acknowledge the life of Professor Hugh Berringtion (1928-2010). Professor Berrington was a former Head of Department in Politics at Newcastle University and pioneered many approaches to the study of politics and political behaviour. Without the financial support provided by the scholarship established in his name, and the many generous individuals that contributed to it, I would not have been able to carry out this research. This thesis is dedicated to his memory, academic legacy, and family. Tristan Martin March 2019 iv ‘Many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view’ Obi-Wan Kenobi – Star Wars: Episode VI – Return of the Jedi (1983) v Contents Abstract page iii Acknowledgements iv List of Tables and Figures ix-x Summary xi Chapter 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Thesis scope 2 1.2 Research methods and data collection 2 1.3 Structure of the thesis 5 1.4 Original contribution and key findings 6 Chapter 2: Change in Political Parties 10 2.1 Change in Political Parties 10 2.2 Endogenous Causes of Party Change 14 2.3 Exogenous Causes of Party Change 20 2.4 Conclusion 28 Chapter 3: Theoretical Framework: New Institutionalism 30 3.1 New Institutionalism 31 3.2 A New Institutionalist Framework of Institutional Change 38 3.3 Mechanisms 42 3.4 Conclusion 53 Chapter 4: Conservative Party and Europe, 1997-2016: Analysis of Change 54 4.1 Categorising Party-based Euroscepticism 54 4.2 May 1997-June 2001 59 4.3 June 2001- May 2005 64 4.4 May 2005 – May 2010 71 4.5 May 2010 – May 2015 74 4.6 May 2015 – February 2016 82 4.7 Conclusion 86 Chapter 5: Europe and Policy Change under Hague, 1997-2001 91 5.1 Historical Legacies 91 5.2 Rival Political Parties 98 5.3 Ideological Composition of the Conservative Party 102 5.4 Critical Junctures 107 5.5 Public Opinion 112 5.6 Domestic Political Context 120 vi 5.7 Internal Political Context 124 5.8 Pressure Groups 127 5.9 Individual Actors 128 5.10 Media 132 5.11 Conclusion 133 Chapter 6: Duncan-Smith to Howard – Policy Change and Europe, 2001-2005 136 6.1 Historical Legacies 136 6.2 Ideological Composition of the Conservative Party 139 6.3 Rival Political Parties 145 6.4 Public Opinion 150 6.5 Domestic Political Context 153 6.6 International Political Context 156 6.7 Individual Actors 157 6.8 Conclusion 165 Chapter 7: Cameron in Opposition – Policy Change and Europe, 2005-2010 167 7.1 Historical Legacies 167 7.2 Ideological Composition of the Conservative Party 172 7.3 Rival Political Parties 179 7.4 Public Opinion 185 7.5 Domestic Political Context 188 7.6 International Political Context 190 7.7 Individual Actors 195 7.8 Conclusion 199 Chapter 8: Cameron in Government – Policy Change and Europe, 2010-2016 201 8.1 Historical Legacies – 1997-2010 202 8.2 The 2010 General Election and the Coalition Agreement 206 8.3 Ideological Composition of the Conservative Party 212 8.4 Public Opinion 220 8.5 Rival Political Parties 224 8.6 Domestic Political Context 229 8.7 International Political Context 232 8.8 Factions and Tendencies 233 8.9 Individual Political Actors 239 8.10 Conclusion 241 Chapter 9: Conclusion 243 9.1 Endogenous/Exogenous causes of Policy Change in Context 243 9.2 Contribution of the New Institutionalist Approach 246 9.3 Applying the Approach to other Examples 249 9.4 Conservative European Policy 1997-2016 and Brexit 250 9.5 Implications for Future Research 251 Appendix: List of Interviewees 253 vii Bibliography 256 viii List of Tables and Figures Tables 4.1 Conservative Eurosceptic Spectrum page 56 4.2 Hall’s Orders of Policy Change 56 5.1 Conservative MPs in the 1997-2001 Shadow Cabinet 105 5.2 UK Voters and Euroscepticism, 1992-1997 112 5.3 UK Public Attitudes towards the Euro, 1992-1997 113 5.4 UK Voters’ Positions on Major Issues (Mean Scores), 1992-1997 114 6.1 UK Public Attitudes towards the EU, 2001-2005 151 7.1 MP Ballots: Conservative Party Leadership Election, 2005 170 7.2 Conservative Member’s Attitude to European Integration, June 2009 178 7.3 UK Public Attitudes towards the EU, 2005-2013 185 8.1 UK Public Attitudes towards the EU, 2008-2016 221 ix Figures 1.1 Levels of Change page 11 5.1 Conservative Voters’ Attitudes Towards EU Membership, 1987-97 115 5.2 UK Voters saying Europe No1 Issue, 1992-2001 117 5.3 UK Public Attitude towards the Euro, 1991-2001 119 5.4 UK Party Leader Satisfaction Ratings, 1997-2001 121 5.5 UK Voting Intention, May 1997-June 2001 122 5.6 ‘Best Party on Key Issue’: Europe, 1997-2001 123 6.1 UK Public Attitude towards the Euro, 2001-2005 152 6.2 UK Voters saying Europe No1 Issue, 2001-2005 153 6.3 UK Party Leader Satisfaction Ratings, 2001-2005 155 6.4 ‘Best Party of Key Issue’: Europe, 2001-2005 156 7.1 UK Public saying Immigration No1 Issue, 2004-2012 183 7.2 UK Voting Intention, 2005-2010 184 7.3 UK Public Attitudes towards the EU, 1992-2015 186 7.4 UK Public saying Europe No1 Issue, 2005-2010 187 7.5 UK Party Leader Satisfaction Ratings, 2006-2010 189 7.6 ‘Best Party of Key Issue’: Europe, 2005-2007 190 8.1 UK Public Attitudes towards the EU, 1992-1996 221 8.2 UK Public saying Europe No1 Issue, 2010-2016 222 8.3 UK Public saying Immigration No1 Issue, 2010-2016 223 8.4 UK Voting Intention, 2010-2016 225 x Summary This thesis provides an in-depth analysis and explanation of policy change in the Conservative Party on the question of European integration, from May 1997 to February 2016. Firstly, it puts into context what is meant when we say that a political party has changed, before proceeding to examine the exogenous and endogenous factors that can influence a political party to change policy positions. Following from this, it considers how insights from new institutionalist theory can provide a more comprehensive explanation of how an institution like a political party changes policy over time. It achieves this by introducing further theoretical tools and mechanisms, such as path dependency and historical legacy, that helps provide a more detailed analysis of the processes behind policy change. It then traces Conservative European policy from May 1997 to February 2016, identifying the changes and continuities in chronological order. It categorises each period according to Lynch and Whitaker’s typology of different varieties of Euroscepticism and identifies the type of change observed. The following chapters are then structured thematically, using the exogenous and endogenous factors of policy change and the new institutionalist theory approach, to analyse the causes of policy change from 1997-2001, 2001-2005, 2005-2010, and 2010-2016. The main findings of the thesis are summarised as follows: • Incrementally over the period European policy moves in a more Eurosceptic direction.