becoming increasingly clear that the dragon dragon the that clear increasingly becoming is it as China, with ties in bilateral grown have and irritants concerns years, In recent tune. positive this to exception obvious the –were muted more years and in recent public, in –first human on rights Beijing with discussions Critical dragon. rising rapidly the from emerging benefits economic the reap to aimed that agenda apositive large and by was This China and …China. China, about been long has states and EU member Union European in the on Thinking strength. and military political economic, gain in to continue countries and Asian influential less relatively is Europe wherein aworld with reckon to shifts policy tactical and thinking strategic serious on embarked last have at policymakers European liberal international order that developed developed that order international liberal the into fully socialising without risen has Europe can follow through on its intentions. its on through follow can Europe whether show will cases test several ahead, months Inthe adjustments. of these most make unwilling to far been have so capitals European trade-offs. make political to willingness as a well as language, and official priorities of political a reconsideration vision, long-term apractical requires in Asia partners key with relationships reframing in success that argues It capitals. and in European in Brussels and tactics strategy in shift of this and drivers key context the discusses Brief Policy Clingendael This and . as such countries’, ‘like-minded so-called with relations deepen to seeking nowadays are states member EU and its the and Asia, in Europe transitions manageto disrupting Attempting China. of engagement positive chiefly than more little around revolved for many years Asia towards policy EU and Dutch a new trilateral? Japan: and with India Europe’s partnerships Reimagining 2018 FEBRUARY 1 and vote Kingdom’s Brexit United The in Asia. countries’ ‘like-minded so-called with relations of strengthening in Europe talk growing is there countries, European of approach default the engagement and positive central China remains While since have promoted West in the countries 2017, available Relations’,EU–China of Audit Power A New Gates: the at ‘China andand Godement Vasselier, Abigaël François MERICS Report Europe’, in Influence Political Growing China’s to Responding Advance: ‘Authoritarian Shi-Kupfer, Kristin and Poggetti Lucrezia Thorsten Benner, Jan Gaspers, Mareike Ohlberg, Ohlberg, Mareike Gaspers, Jan Benner, Thorsten 1945. 1 online , February 2018, available 2018, available , February . ECFR Report , 1 December , 1December GPPi & GPPi online

;

Maaike Okano-Heijmans Policy Brief Clingendael Policy Brief

steps by Donald Trump’s administration to uphold the rules-based liberal system. in the that undermine the The successful agreement of the high-quality multilateral, rules-based system – including EU–Japan EPA and the reinvigorated Trans- within the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Pacific Partnership (TPP) are cases in point. and US withdrawal from the Paris Climate After all, even when the United States – the Agreement – have added urgency and new largest negotiating partner – withdrew from challenges to this trend. After all, the United the TPP negotiations, the remaining eleven Kingdom and the United States as two of countries moved to TPP 2.0. In January 2018 the traditional flagbearers of the liberal an agreement was reached on what is now international order can no longer always be the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans- relied on as partners with whom to pursue Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and countries interests. The EU-27 thus need to invest including , Taiwan and in new partners with whom to protect and have shown an interest in joining the deal at strengthen the open, rules-based system the next stage. Importantly, even the tactic of and the liberal values that the EU embodies. luring the United States back into the trade deal by moving forward after Washington The prime example of this growing political left negotiations seems to have paid off, will to strengthen ties with like-minded as President Trump at the World Economic countries in Asia is the successful conclusion Forum in Davos in January 2018 intimated of the Economic Partnership Agreement a possible US return to the TPP.4 (EPA) between the EU and Japan. On the eve of the Summit in Hamburg in Many countries that adhere to liberal values June 2017, the two partners announced their of openness, transparency and a rules-based agreement in principle. This was symbolic of order thus still want to forge alignments the EU’s and Japan’s shared concerns about and to protect and deepen the liberal order. Trump’s economic nationalism and Chinese However, this requires more out-of-the-box geo-economic activism in Asia.2 Illustrative thinking today compared to earlier times of the strengthening EU–India ties was the when the United States and the United wide representation of European officials and Kingdom were the natural go-to partners. experts at India’s Raisina Dialogue in January 2018. As political leaders and experts from around the world gathered in Delhi to Like-minded Partners? discuss foreign and security policy at India’s premier international conference, high-level The European Union and its member states EU and Indian representatives voiced their are thus looking to deepen ties with so-called intentions to deepen bilateral ties. ‘like-minded countries’, especially in Asia. Recent EU statements on Japan talk of the two sides as ‘like-minded strategic partners A Crisis of Authority and major economies sharing common values and principles’.5 At the EU–India Summit Are we facing a crisis of the liberal order, in September 2017, European Commission as policymakers and experts increasingly President Jean-Claude Juncker was more suggest? Hardly so, says South Korean specific: ‘We are the world’s two largest expert Yul Sohn. Instead, the crisis is one of democracies. We are two of the world’s authority:3 as Washington retreats, others biggest economies. We share the same values are continuing (or even stepping up) efforts and the belief in freedom, equality, tolerance and the rule of law. Working together with a

2 Maaike Okano-Heijmans, ‘Europe and Japan Should Look to Each Other amid Uncertainty about 4 Japan Times, ‘Trump Woos Davos with TPP Trade Trump and Xi’, Clingendael Policy Brief, June 2017, Deal Shift, Says US is “Open for Business”’, available online. 27 January 2018, available online. 3 Yul Sohn in the session ‘Fragile World: Geopolitical 5 European Commission, ‘Statement by President and Geoeconomic Challenges’, at the Raisina Juncker at the EU–Japan Leaders Meeting’, Speech, Dialogue, Delhi, 18 January 2018. Brussels, 21 March 2017, available online.

2 Clingendael Policy Brief

like-minded partner like India simply makes European capitals are looking for partners sense. It is natural’.6 However, EU–India like- that are willing to bind forces in protecting mindedness appears less natural from the (and ideally, deepening) the rules-based Rule of Law Index, which considers factors international order – with its such as fundamental rights, constraints (UN)-based centrality in the field of security on government powers and absence of and WTO-based centrality in the economic corruption.7 Here, India ranks far closer to realm. China (62nd and 75th position, respectively) than to Japan and European countries, for Reinvigorated EU–Japan and EU–India example the Netherlands or (14th, 5th relationships would bring Europe’s relations and 18th position, respectively). with these countries in line with the strengthening regional profile of the two Clearly, behind the lofty rhetoric lie Asian countries. Despite being more of a realist political considerations and promise than a reality in terms of regional pragmatic diplomatic tactics. After all, power and influence today, India is becoming and notwithstanding a certain degree of serious about raising its international profile. like-mindedness on basic principles, the Since taking office in 2014, Prime Minister democratic systems of EU member states, has repeatedly voiced Japan and India are vastly different, and the India’s ambition to rise as a responsible three certainly differ in their understanding power. If India is the great power-in-waiting, of some crucial issues, such as the death Japan is the only country that is willing penalty and personal data protection. That and able today to offer real alternatives to said, the EU, Japan and India have much in Chinese actions and propositions – whether common when compared to the country that militarily in the South and East China Seas, is currently the single biggest force of the or economically to China’s Belt and Road global shift in political, economic and military Initiative (BRI). Tokyo and Delhi share influence: China. Efforts to strengthen EU– between them key concerns about China’s India and EU–Japan relations should thus growing assertiveness in the region. also be viewed as a form of indirect China policy and a scramble for viable alternatives to the Chinese market, which is losing Japan, India and the Quad 2.0 the appeal it has held for several decades because of rising labour prices and growing Despite its relative economic decline and (legal) impediments and insecurities. More the bad press that it has received in Europe than pooling together a group of countries over recent decades because of its sluggish that share similar approaches to a broad economic growth, Japan is certainly no spent set of basic principles, ‘like-mindedness’ force. Tokyo is offering Quality Infrastructure as a geopolitical concept thus serves to Partnerships to countries in Southeast distinguish authoritarian powers like China Asia, emphasising standards such as social and from a group of countries that and environmental considerations, high- are all liberal democracies of some sort. technology assistance, local job creation, and consideration for the financial situation of Set against this context, it is no surprise that recipients. Tokyo also provides development Japan and India emerge today as Europe’s assistance that bolsters these countries’ Asian partners of choice. South Korea, naval military strength. , New Zealand and Indonesia may also be included in this list. Put simply, In a poll among Southeast Asian experts conducted in 2017 by -based think tank ISEAS, Japan was the only country to pass the 50 per cent threshold on the 6 European Commission, ‘EU–India Summit: question of what country is expected to Strengthening our Strategic Partnership and Moving Forward with our Common Agenda’, Press ‘do the right thing’ in contributing to global Release, Brussels, 6 October 2017, available online. peace, security, prosperity and governance. 7 World Justice Project, WJP Rule of Law Index 2017– The European Union – the biggest investor 2018, 2018, available online. in the region – came in second with an

3 Clingendael Policy Brief

admirable 45 per cent, albeit quite a distance or a geo-economic reality,11 but includes a from Japan’s 62 per cent.8 By contrast, geopolitical agenda that responds to China’s 70 per cent of respondents to this same poll growing influence. Similarly political a term, expressed little or no confidence that Beijing the so-called ‘Quad’ – an informal strategic will ‘do the right thing’. Concerns have grown partnership of Japan, India, the United States among Southeast Asian experts about China and Australia – was reinvigorated in late 2017, building artificial islands in the South China after its first short-lived manifestation in 2007– Sea and its construction of airstrips and 2008: the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. docks on disputed islands and reefs, as well Australia effectively squared the Quad as about Chinese BRI projects also leading 2.0 with its Foreign Policy White Paper of to flows of illegal migrant workers and drug November 2017 – its first in fourteen years – smuggling from China. In addition, Beijing’s which largely focuses on the challenges increasingly widespread use of economic presented by China’s rise and states that levers such as unofficial import restrictions Australia is ‘open to working with our and tourist boycotts are a growing concern. Indo-Pacific partners in other plurilateral agreements’. Next to security cooperation, In an overt attempt to offer an alternative to the Quad 2.0 is taking on also a geo-economic China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, angle, as illustrated by talk of cooperation on Japan and India in September 2017 the Blue Economy and coordination of joint launched the Asia– Growth Corridor financing for regional infrastructure projects. (AAGC)9 – a collaborative vision to promote development, connectivity and cooperation between Africa and Asia as part of a ‘liberal Shared Destination, Distinct and value-based order’. A month later, US Approaches Secretary of State Rex Tillerson confirmed Washington’s alignment with these countries in a speech in Delhi, followed by similar There can be little doubt that the EU and its remarks by President Trump himself on the member states share ideas on the end goal sidelines of the annual East Asia Summit regarding China with many countries in Asia. in Manila in November 2017.10 This led All wish for China to develop as a country to a quick popularisation of the concept that respects and conforms to standards ‘Indo-Pacific’ to refer to Asia, rather than enshrined in today’s open, rules-based liberal Asia-Pacific. international order. Fundamental differences exist, however, in how much of a priority First coined by the United States, Indonesia, China is to the EU and its member states, Japan and Australia in the early 2010s, and to Japan, India and ASEAN countries. Trump’s recent reference to the Indo- Obsessed with its immediate neighbourhood, Pacific immediately made it – again – a Europe has long been oblivious to the fact politically charged concept. The term does that China poses the long-term challenge to not merely refer to a geographical region the international system. By contrast, relations with China are vital for all Asian countries in political, economic and security terms. In addition, ideas diverge between European and Asian capitals on the preferred approach and 8 ‘Iseas Poll Shows Low Trust for China in Region’, timing of policies, the preferred language and Today Online, 4 May 2017, available online. the acceptable level of trade-offs. Seen in this 9 Jagannath P. Panda, ‘Asia–Africa Growth Corridor context, like-mindedness as democracies and (AAGC): An India–Japan Arch in the Making?’, the shared desire to maintain the rules-based Focus Asia, No. 21, August 2017, available online. order and market-capitalism provide a thin 10 Rex W. Tillerson, Remarks on “Defining Our base for real cooperation to work smoothly. Relationship With India for the Next Century”, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), Washington, DC, 18 October 2017, available online; and C. Raja Mohan, ‘Donald Trump’s “Indo-Pacific” 11 Rory Medcalf, ‘The Indo-Pacific: What’s in a Name?’, and America’s India Conundrum’, ISAS Insights, The National Interest, Vol. 9, No. 2, 10 October 2013, No. 476, 13 November 2017; available online. available online.

4 Clingendael Policy Brief

Consider, for example, the fact that to This brings us to a third divergence, which Japan and India, China’s encroachment on concerns the difference in foreign policy geographical boundaries poses an immediate priorities. As illustrated by diplomatic challenge. Since 2010, Japan and China have activities and speeches, bilateral statements clashed in a growing number of incursions and conference programmes, the primary involving warplanes, ships and fishermen in challenges for Japan and India are North the East China Sea. For its part, as recently Korea and terrorism, respectively. These as summer 2017, India faced a military stand- issues also feature on the agenda of the off with Chinese soldiers on the Doklam EU and its member states, but in very plateau – territory claimed by both China different ways: Pyongyang is relatively less and Bhutan. By contrast, European concerns of a priority for Europe – because it is not with China’s growing assertiveness and an immediate threat13 – and the problem reach have been much less tangible, as they definition and desired approach to tackling are mostly economic in nature, rather than (counter-)terrorism are quite distinct in territorial and military. Europe and India. Specifically, European countries are concerned about accusations This difference in direct exposure to Chinese of human rights violations regarding India’s shows of force between Japan, India and methods in combating extremism. This gap other Asian countries on the one hand, and in prioritisation and approach obviously European countries on the other, reinforces complicates practical, on-the-ground a second divergence: a clash of cultures in cooperation on these issues. the concepts used. In Asia, sovereignty and nationalism are very much part of today’s reality. They are not relics of the nineteenth The Road Ahead century, as many in Europe conceive them to be. In the Asian region, the United States is more willing and able to speak and act Beyond geographical challenges that result in ways that conform with the mind-set in military confrontations, sovereignty of Japanese and Indian counterparts. In issues also feature in the economic realm. conferences such as India’s Raisina Dialogue, ’s sovereignty, for example, became for example, the European Union and EU disputed when its government – struggling member states’ governments would organise to pay its debt to Chinese banks – handed sessions dealing explicitly with the EU or the over the strategic port of Hambantota to a EU’s relations with another country. Doing Chinese state-owned enterprise on a 99-year so risks an excessive focus on EU internal lease in December 2017. Such debt creation affairs and may keep away an audience when used to create dependency also that does not have a profound interest in threatens countries’ economic sovereignty. Europe. This is particularly problematic, as In this form, sovereignty issues may have many Europeans are still oblivious to the already reached European borders, as the fact that lots of Asians look at the EU as example of Chinese loans to EU candidate a shaky grouping, a region in trouble, or member Montenegro testifies.12 – back in 2017 when several European cities experienced terrorist attacks – even as a ‘war frontier’.14 The smarter way of engaging like- minded countries in Asia may be that of US and Japanese companies, foundations and governments. Their approach is to stimulate 12 The huge cost of the Bar–Boljare motorway – of which €689 million out of €809 million is funded by a China Exim Bank loan – compared to Montenegro’s small economy has raised concerns 13 Sico van der Meer, ‘The EU and North Korea: among international financial institutions and rating Sanctions Alone are Not Enough’, Clingendael Alert, agencies about driving up Montenegro’s debt October 2017, available online. burden. See Clare Nuttall, ‘China Rising: Chinese 14 Several sessions at the Raisina Dialogue in January Funded Highway Drives Up Montenegro’s Debt 2018, as well as other exchanges with experts from Burden’, IntelliNews, 10 July 2017, available online. East Asia in 2017.

5 Clingendael Policy Brief

discussion on a specific topic – for example, also depend on their willingness to make innovation or climate change – that deliver trade-offs. Such trade-offs may include their own views, interests and objectives adjustments in their political prioritisation or more subtly, with government officials taking understanding of particular policy issues, or a back seat. they may risk upsetting China. Test cases of such preparedness are found in the security Without suggesting that the EU adopts the and political–economic fields. talk and priorities of Asian countries (or of the United States, for that matter), a key In the field of security, one thing to watch issue to be addressed is whether the EU and is whether the EU and its member states its member states are willing to engage in will start talking about the ‘Indo-Pacific’ some best-practice learning from the region. in the foreseeable future. Theoretically, One such example is to come up with a using the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ makes sense framework for cooperation that incorporates to Brussels and European capitals, as it a long-term vision with concrete action references the part of Asia that is most points for cooperation. This serves the geographically close and that links Europe purpose of linking abstract rhetoric about to Asia: the Indian Ocean. Considering the shared values with practical, on-the-ground implicit geopolitical agenda ingrained in the cooperation. After all, pragmatic cooperation concept, however, it is in practice quite a that brings local, visible and quick(er) political leap to introduce the term in official solutions to practical challenges will have discourse. After all, ‘Indo-Pacific’ takes ‘like- greater effect if they are part of a shared mindedness’ one step further: both implicitly narrative on dealing with bigger issues such reference China, but ‘Indo-Pacific’ is directly as regional power shifts and the acceptable related to the regional (security) order in (financial and political) costs of reaching Asia. This runs counter to the EU’s approach this objective. India and Japan’s Asia–Africa of strengthening regional solutions and Growth Corridor offers a good example in cooperation in Asia. So far, only France and this regard. the have indicated interest in the quasi-military alliance that the ‘Indo- Track 1.5 or Track 2 dialogues between Pacific’ and the Quad involve.15 Hence, while generalists as well as specialists may countries including India and Japan, as well contribute to identifying avenues for such as the United States, will welcome an EU joint action at both the long-term visionary shift to talking about ‘Indo-Pacific’, it would and the short-term practical levels. There has probably be less popular with policymakers been a dearth of investment in such people- in Beijing. to-people exchange in EU–India and EU– Japan relations. Institutionalising intellectual Second, will the EU and its member states exchange may also foster greater recognition be willing and able to move closer to the of the actions of Japan and – to some extent Indian and Japanese foreign policy priorities, – India in Europe and our backyard, and vice namely terrorism and North Korea? In versa. How many policy makers and experts rhetoric, this is already occurring – as is in EU capitals are aware, for example, of apparent from the opening paragraphs of the Western Balkans Cooperation Initiative, EU–India and EU–Japan summit statements. which was established by the Japanese But what about real action in, for example, government in January 2018, and of the fact a trilateral or regional setting? that the EU as a whole is the single biggest investor and key trading partner of Southeast Asian countries and India?

15 The French and British navies are stepping up their Test Cases for Europe presence in the Asia–Pacific region, and France’s ministry of defence makes broad reference to Whether the EU and its member states the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ in official documents; see succeed in truly deepening their relationship French Ministry of Defence, France and Security in with ‘like-minded countries’ in Asia will the Asia–Pacific, June 2016, available online.

6 Clingendael Policy Brief

The EU lost relevance in shaping inter- connectivity and global value chains, Korean security after the Korean Peninsula economic and financial governance and Energy Development Organisation (KEDO) trade diplomacy – rise in importance, more effectively became redundant in late 2002. institutionalised cooperation on economic That said, a positive example of practical and financial governance is hardly a luxury. action was the interception in January Discussions should be held on mini- or 2018 by Dutch authorities of a shipment multilateral efforts to protect and maintain of generators destined for North Korea the rules-based order, transparency and in accordance with UN sanctions over its (financial) standards related to government nuclear and missile programmes. In relations procurement and state subsidies. Although with India, European concerns over India’s the EU is a key trade and investment partner approach to combating extremism have of many countries in Asia, such issues have resulted in a lack of trust between the two not been on the agenda in a structured sides, which in turn is an impediment to setting. cooperation in the sensitive dimension of sharing intelligence data.16 Here, shifting To conclude, the EU and its member states the rhetoric from terrorism to radicalisation should be credited for their renewed in EU–India relations is one way to further efforts to broaden and deepen relations debate and practical cooperation on with so-called ‘like-minded countries’ in the topic. Asia, including Japan and India. A mature relationship takes these affiliations beyond In the political-economic field, one test the fields of trade and investment, to include case may lie in whether the EU or individual also practical cooperation in the security, EU member states will cooperate on the political and geo-economic realms. This Asia–Africa Growth Corridor, proposed by can only succeed if European capitals are Japan and India, and complementing their willing to move out of their comfort zone. involvement with China’s Belt and Road The values-driven approach referencing Initiative. The political sensitivity of such ‘like-mindedness’ with countries in a move should be small, as Europeans Asia needs to be complemented with a have until now engaged in a wide range greater degree of geopolitical, interest- of connectivity initiatives, rather than with driven, strategic balancing. A practical China’s BRI alone. The real question here long-term vision that bridges on-the- may be whether Europeans are willing to put ground cooperation with rhetorical like- their money where their mouth is. In other mindedness is an important step in this words, are they willing to spend money regard. Furthermore, what is needed is a on infrastructural projects that may be reconsideration of political priorities, official undertaken under this flag? language and a willingness to make political trade-offs – steps that European capitals Another test of the willingness of the EU, have so far been unwilling to make. India and Japan to commit political and financial capital to deepening ties concerns the creation of a High-level Strategic and Economic Dialogue. European Commission Vice-President for Jobs, Growth, Investment and Competitiveness Jyrki Katainen proposed such a platform in Delhi in November 2016, but the Indian response was muted and the initiative was not pursued. As geo-economic issues – including

16 Patryk Kugiel, ‘EU–India Counter-Terrorism Cooperation: Limitations and Prospects’, Bulletin PISM, No. 5 (1076), 15 January 2018, available online.

7 About the Clingendael Institute Clingendael – the Netherlands Institute of International Relations – is a leading think tank and academy on international affairs. Through our analyses, training and public debate we aim to inspire and equip governments, businesses, and civil society in order to contribute to a secure, sustainable and just world. www.clingendael.org  @clingendaelorg [email protected]  The Clingendael Institute +31 70 324 53 84  The Clingendael Institute

About the author

Maaike Okano-Heijmans is a Senior Research Fellow at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’ in The Hague. She is a Scientific Coordinator of the Asia–Pacific Research and Advice Network (#APRAN) for the European Commission and the European External Action Service.