Hurricane Lester Information from CPHC Advisory 34, 5:00 PM HST Thu September 1, 2016 Lester Is Moving Toward the West-Northwest Near 14 Mph

eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Lester Information from CPHC Advisory 34, 5:00 PM HST Thu September 1, 2016 Lester is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph with higher gusts. Lester is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in intensity is expected into tonight, followed by gradual weakening.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 125 mph Position Relative to 595 miles E of Speed: (cat. 3 hurricane) Land: Hilo, HI Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 957 mb Coordinates: 18.7 N, 146.0 W

Trop. Storm Force 150 miles Est. Max Sustained Bearing/Speed: WNW or 285 degrees at 14 mph n/a Winds Extent: from center Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ The current NHC forecast map (below left) and wind field map based on the NHC’s forecast track (below right) both show Lester moving northwest of the Hawaiian Islands at tropical hurricane strength (74+ mph). To illustrate the uncertainty in Lester’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Hurricane conditions are possible over Hawaii and Maui Counties on Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possibly developing as early as late Friday night. Hurricane conditions are possible over Oahu on Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions possibly developing as early as Saturday afternoon. ■ Swells generated by Lester will build over east facing shores tonight and Friday. Surf will peak this weekend, becoming very large and damaging along portions of east facing shores. Heavy rains associated with Lester may reach Hawaii and Maui counties on Saturday, and may reach Oahu on Saturday night.

Forecast Track for Hurricane Lester Forecast Wind field for Hurricane Lester (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 18:00 UTC from Kinetic Analysis Corp.)

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Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probabilities at 2 PM HST Thursday September 1 for the Next 5 Days The maps below show probabilities of maximum sustained wind speeds over the next five days. The map at lower left shows the Hawaiian Islands with chances of seeing tropical storm force wind speeds (39 - 73 mph) ranging from 10% to 70%. The map at lower right shows the Islands of Maui, Molokai, and Oahu with 0% to 5% chance of seeing hurricane force wind speeds (74+ mph).

New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the low moves west- northwestward or northwestward near the coast of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium. Chances of formation are 60% through 2 days and 80% through five days. A weak area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is expected to meander during the next few days, and any development should be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds. Chances of formation are 10% through 2 days and 20% through five days.