Chinese Leaders and Ministries who make China’s Tibet Policies

Tenzin Tseten: Host

Good morning dear friends. Today we have a presentation from a very good and long friend Claude Apri. Please allow me to introduce Claude Apri briefly. Claude Arpi is a French-born author, journalist, historian and tibetologist. He is the author of The Fate of Tibet: When big insects eat small insects and Glimpses of Tibetan History. He has numerous articles on Tibet, China, India, and Indo-French relations. He is the director of Tibet Pavilion in Auroville also named Pavilion of Tibetan Culture. The pavilion was inaugurated by His Holiness…

Sonam Tenzin

Thanks for the introduction, our friend and author, Mr. Claude Arpi is being requested to use half an hour for the presentation followed by questions from the floor, thank you. Mr. Claude Arpi would you would mind, please begin.

Claude Arpi

Thank You, I want to… very grateful to TPI [Tibet Policy Institute] who invited me, particular to my very old friend Thubten Samphel lak that the… Thubten Samphel lak visited us all in Auroville in 1985 on the occasion of the international youth [inaudible word: year?] he was the first Tibetan delegate in Auroville, and since then we have been in contact and I am very grateful for inviting me and grateful to Sonam lak for sharing that [inaudible word: session?] and Thubten lak to organized my [inaudible word: brief?] in Dharamsala. So I will be very brief because Sonam said I only have half an hour and I have a small problem that I left my glasses to see from far in [the] hotel, so I have to come close to see what is written here. So I will speak about the leadership change and what is the implication for Tibet. So, this… I will skip few of the thing[s] or you may not have your lunch which is not very good. So that’s the structure of the , as well as the government. Now you know that there this time is only seven member[s] of the standing Committee of the Politburo, but for Tibet the most important person is the number four who is the chairman of the CPPCC Yu Zhengsheng who really look after Tibetan affair[s] and who has visited in one year since the election and the 18th congress. He has visited already three times Tibet and what China calls the Tibetan inhabited area. So, Yu Zhengsheng is… and at the same time he is the chairman of the small group, small Tibet work group and I will come to it later. The state council, I pass also very quickly, one premier, four vice-premiers and one lady who had been also involve[d] in Tibet and five state- councilors. Now the main decision for all the Tibet policy, since 1980, since Deng Ziaoping came into power and since he met Mr. Gyalo Thondup [or Dhondup] in ‘79 and the first delegation came… went in ’79. The main decision are taken in the Work Forum and it consists of all the standing committee member; politburo, people from the PLA, people from the PAP, local cadres; so it’s [a] large gathering of two [or] three hundred people who take really the decision for the following five or ten years. The First Work Forum occurred in March of 1980, which means it was about three months before the visit of [inaudible words] of one general secretary to Tibet in which he brought very new policy which [has] been relatively favorable. One of the few period which have been very favorable to the Tibetan[s] after the visit of general secretary Hu Yaobang. So the last… most recent one in January 2010 and I think today, China still follow this [inaudible word] last year 18th congress leadership change, still follow the policy of the Fifth Tibet Work Forum.

So I will not go into detail of the Fifth [Tibet Work Forum], but basically it was to strengthen the Party organization at the local village, level; mainly in the villages and in the monastery in… as well as in the town[s] like Lhasa and Shigatse where they put this [inaudible word] and lot of cadres in the villages… for a few months to teach people what is the party and how good the party is. So I will leave all this detail with Thubten Samphel lak and… but I think most of you already know. Actually, they had mention that they would send 23-24,000 cadres to the Tibetan village[s], but recently last month I read an article in the China-Tibet Online that they have sent 60,000 cadres to indoctrinate or to teach the good thing that the party is doing for Tibetans[s]. So I think never since the [has] there been so much indoctrination and so much effort from the party, leadership to really go to the grassroot level because they have… they always speak about stability, stability means that unless at the grassroot level; at the level of the village, at the level at the of the house or the cities, at the level of the monasteries. There is the full control not only of the communication of the internet of the people what they… what each person, individual is doing. If they don’t… not able to monitor they are afraid that the incident of 2008, March–April 2008, the riot and demonstrations all over Tibet could occurred again, so they want to find a way to prevent this so they believe that indoctrinating at the grassroot level this could change. The main basis for the Fifth Work Forum was stability, stability means controlling what is happening.

Now, once this decision are taken in the Work Forum, they have to be implemented. And as you know China… the Communist Party is using these small groups. These small groups at coordinating different ministry[s] who are dealing with one issue. Now last [inaudible words] two days back the central committee, the 205 member of the central committee, have decided to set up two new Work Forum[s]. One is for reform, economic reform, not political or social reform. One is economic reform and the second one is National Security Board for national security [a] small group to monitor all the demonstration[s], all the riots, all the disturbance which could happen the lower [inaudible word] problem all over. So it will have certainly a lot of repercussion also for Tibet in the sense that for the first time in a small group we… I’m not sure who will be the chairman of that small group but they will include the PLA, the PAP, the PSB and all the different organization of the party who are dealing with law and order. So in our case in case of Tibet that central Tibet work coordination group shared by Yu Zhengsheng is the main group who deals and decide…take decision. So like very often in china the composition is secret. Once or twice they mention in the press that Yu Zhengsheng was [the] chairman but we don’t know as yet who are the other members. So I did some guessing work. The chairman used to be Jia Qinglin the chairman of the CPPCC now is Yu Zhengsheng. Always the ministry of public security is represented, so who was already in the previous small group on Tibet will be… probably [be in the group]. was posted in Tibet as the party secretary few years back, he is now the party secretary for maybe in it. Ma Kai who has been looking after development is probably in it. And Ling Jihua who looks after the United Front. And the other member[s] I just guessed. Zhang Yijiong replaces Zhu Weiqun as the person who deals directly with His Holiness‘ envoy. So it’s just guessing work so I did my own small group on Tibet but it still secret and every few people I think in China know who are they. But for sure there is people from the PLA and PAP and general Wang Jianping, who has been posted in Tibet few years back, as the director of the commander of the PAP, he is now all, overall china commanding the PAP. So he [is] certainly in it. General Yang Jinshan is now been transferred in Chengdu as the deputy commander but he was earlier commander of the Tibet district military area, so he is the member of the central committee; he is very powerful, he is someone who will make it probably in a few years in the Politburo. So he is certainly in it. And maybe the… because all… as you know the minority, what the china call the minority, have not much say usually in china, but one of the person from the minority Wang Zhengwei who is in charge of Ministry of Ethnic Minority is a Hui, from Hui nationality. He visited Tibet, so I have…, recently three four months ago he visited Tibet so it make me think that he might be also in it. Now the day to day affairs, once the small committee has taken decision out to be implemented is left with United Front. So now here you see the new person Zhang Yijiong who is replacing Zhu Weiqun and will probably deal with the Tibetan envoys if there is any negotiations. Of course always the Chinese Panchen Lama, Gyaltsen Norbu, as well as Reting Rinpoche he… he is involved. There is one Tibetan Gunpo Tashi who is a cabinet member of the central committee who is one of the senior most Tibetan, young Tibetan, in charge of the United Front he is also probably. And Sitar[or Sithar] who is based in Beijing who used to be based in Switzerland and who speaks German. He [has] recently been visiting also Tibet, so he is one of the main person. Ling Jihua he was suppose to become a member of the politburo he was one of the favorite, very close to unfortunately, his son had a Ferrari. Is very strange, son of a senior cadre with a Ferrari and he had an accident… he got killed and one of the girl, two Tibetan girls were with him and he got demoted and the demotion is to be the director of the United Front. So he once visited Tibet this year but I don’t think because of what happened they will not forgive him that incident because on the top of that he tried to hide the facts that his son had an accident. So it was one way to get rid of him and unfortunately it’s a very important post in the United Front which deals with Tibet affairs. So I’ve mention[ed] Yu Zhengsheng, he is been very important member of the standing [committee of] Politburo. He is a developer, he is from he did a lot of good work according to Chinese characteristic in Shanghai, so many people believe that he really wants to do development in Tibet. He tries to solve the issue of Tibet using more and more development which may not solve at all, but that is another issue.

[Zhang] Yijiong…sorry excuse me. He is… also [a] member of the central committee. Central committee member are very powerful because when there is a plenum they are giving the direction, even suppose the general secretary Xi Jinping wants to go in certain direction and if is not followed by the 205 member or if there is dissention or power struggle within he won’t be able to implement. So Yijiong hopefully will meet his holiness representative but I don’t know when and I don’t know if you’ve decided who will be the next envoy. But when Yu Zhengsheng visited [Tibet] in early August he visited Lhasa for six days, he accompany him. So, if you look at the composition of the delegation there was Sithar, Yijiong, and there was vice-minister for transport because they want to do new road, new airport. And there was the chairman of the china electricity grid because most probably they want to do more dams and the grid will be very important if they produce electricity with dams on the Yarlung Tsampo and other rivers in Tibet. That electricity will have to be exported to the mainland.

Wang Huning is a very, I think, is a very important person though he’s never been much in the news, but he has been advising and writing speeches for Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and now for Xi Jinping. When Xi Jinping went to Gonchu, means just a few, one hundred kilometer, from Labrang Tashi Kyil he was accompanying. When Xi Jinping went to America to meet Obama in California, Wang Huning was accompanying him. He is a member of the politburo. And I read yesterday some rumor that he may become the national security advisor. And another thing that Wang Huning is member of the Tibet delegation, you know there is a Tibet delegation going every year to the NPC, the National People’s Congress. So there are people who are not Tibetan, Hu Jintao was one of that, Hu Jintao was going part of the Tibet delegation to the NPC. So Wang Huning is part of the Tibet delegation. So he is someone really to follow… what is doing and where is appearing to maybe to give some indication. One of the fore most powerful department is the General Office department of the Communist Party and now… [Li] Zhanshu is the director so he will have… because all the files, all the problem all the issue will ultimately come to the general office so it’s a very powerful post position like Wen Jiabao before becoming premier. During the Tiananmen events in ‘89 he was general secretary of the general office of CP.

These three people have served in Tibet. Deputy Secretary ling libo he was, now is minister, so my point is that all these people after serving in Tibet have got a promotion. Whoever does good in Tibet, good for china not good for Tibetan[s], good for the party gets a promotion. So he is Yang Chungtang and more recently but few months ago Qin Yizhi has been promoted that the director of the Youth League as called. So there is many cases. Another case is madam Liu Yangdong who was the director of the United Front when the first negotiation occurred in 2002 with Lodi Gyari and Kelsang Gyaltsen, she has been promoted in the Politburo. She is one of the two ladies in the politburo I mentioned already, General Wang Jianping who served in Tibet as a PAP commander, now is overall china commander of the PAPF. General [Zhang] Zongqi he is, he was also serving commander in Tibet now he has been big promotion. There is a spelling mistake in Jinan, of the military regiment of Jinan. So it means that next time he will make it to the Central Military Commission. So all these people, who have been in Tibet, who have been tough with the Tibetan[s], who have done well according to the standard of the party; they get their promotion. And as I have mentioned three people in the Tibet delegation to the NPC are not Tibetan. Wang Huning I mentioned [before], Prof. Ding Zhongling, who is a deputy chairman of the Chinese Academy of Science and one businessman from the China Unicom group one of the largest… IT group in China, Chang Xiaobing. Three of them are member[s]. So when Xi Jinping was asked apparently when he visited in march of this year, the Tibet delegation he was saying that each of these three people represent some area where China wants to invest like the… they want all the big business to invest in Tibet in Infrastructure and development. They want science, they want… because of the climate change and all [inaudible] that the Prof. Zhongling from the Chinese Academy of Science will be representing. And of course [inaudible] represent the political aspect of it.

… That’s the structure of the fifteen member of the standing committee of the Tibetan Autonomous Region… Pema Choling, actually, that Pema Choling I was asking some friend in here that he has not been much… he has not been in the press at all for the last six months so I was wondering what happened to him if he had been sacked or he has been sick and everything. But he is the only member of the central committee from Tibet. Now I… Tibet press and Chinese press Lobsang Gyaltsen he’s the inaugurating… he’s altogether the main guy… You know that there is always that strict order when they come onto stage or whatever; one, two, three, four… There is order of precedent… the number four is Wu Yingjie. And he is one of the four deputy secretary, since two months, he is not in Lhasa, I mean according to the newspaper… the website of the town, he is in Nagchu. So it means they are so worried about the secret situation in Nagchu they… it means that by particularly the party secretary in Nagchu is not able to deal with the situation and Wu is constantly in Nagchu. I think one of the main guy one to make it in a few years time, in the politburo is Deng Xiaogang. He is looking after the security in Tibet. He is quite young and very, very powerful and he has done so well for the Chinese once again that the, recently two weeks back, the people from , from Urumqi, the party secretary from Urumqi came and visited Tibet to see all the great system and whatever monitoring system they have put there… So, Gunpo Tashi I mentioned, I just want to mention these two last cadres. Apparently, they are Chinese Han, but born in Tibet. Their parents or their father was part of the 18th army who invaded Tibet in 1951 and these guys are relatively young are born in Tibet; so I don’t know if they are half-Tibetan. Because otherwise, few of the Chinese leader[s] can speak Tibetan. I think Wu maybe speaking because he has been posted [for] thirty-nine years in Tibet. But most of them don’t speak Tibetan, no. So this I will go because you know about the secretary of the party. So as I [inaudible] today one of the most important or the most important deputy secretary is Deng Xiaogang. He is relatively young, he is also in charge of all the affairs with Nepal. He went to Nepal in… he received all the in dignitaries and he is in charge of security. And Wu who has been serving for many years in Tibet is in… roaming around Nagchu. Yu Zhengsheng visited twice I mentioned, Ganzi [Garze or Kardze] [in] January, Kahlo in July and more importantly just before the, every July-August, the Party has this conclave in [inaudible] near the sea, you know it’s too hot in Beijing. So just days before he went for six days inspection of Tibet and one sign, you have to try to read signs. So one sign that the Chinese are not at all confident in Tibet is that they keep their visit, that visit, totally secret and only on the 7th of August when he reached Beijing it was published in the newspaper that he had been for six days in Tibet. So, it is not like in India you get all this politician cutting ribbon and giving speeches and everything. He visited, he met all the people, so they’re really, their so called inspection tour is really work to get to know the situation on the ground. So somehow I believe that they have quite, fairly good assessment of the situation on the ground. It doesn’t mean that they will take good decision that is another thing. So he went to Lhasa, it was a day that the big opera, Wencheng opera, was inaugurated. But in India I was thinking that the guy would have been officiating and inaugurating this thing, he didn’t go and he just met people. Du Qinglin also visited. Now he is in General Office, he used to be in the United Front director I think envoys have met him but now he’s in… central committee and general office, so he is very powerful. And I have mentioned earlier about Wang Zhengwei who is very close to Yu Zhengsheng. When he is… actually the secretary of Xinxiang small group. There was like a small group for Tibet there is a small group for Xinxiang. So he visited in August, Tibet, and he went to Nyingtri [or Lingzhi], yeah I think, because the other leader didn’t got to Nyingtri. Of course they [are] using the Panchen Lama, Gyaltsen Norbu, but as I was telling my friend yesterday in TPI I think this time it was very [inaudible word] the visit for example he stayed for nearly three weeks in Tashilhunpo. Not in Tashilhunpo, in Shigatse. And he was not staying in Tashilhunpo, he was staying outside the Tashilhunpo [inaudible words] summer palace of the Panchen Lama. He went only for a couple of hours to Tashilhunpo and without any grand reception and anything. So, my idea is that China is not fully controlling that Gyaltsen Norbu.

So you know that there is only one… Tibetan in the Central Committee. And if you look at the armed forces… like the… Just a few words about the Choedrak, who is the party secretary for Lhasa. Yesterday he inaugurated [inaudible (29:46)] museum, so China is on the… they are trying to recuperate many of the Tibetan future, and [inaudible] really represents something very special for Tibetan modern mind and everything. They are trying to use it, they have built a three-story museum, and yesterday Choedrak, they called [inaudible], he is inaugurated it. Central Military Commission, again, there is no Tibetan. There were 67 member[s] of the PLA and the PAP in the central committee. There only, not a single… only 100% Han, not a single minority represented. It means how much confidence they have in their so called minority.

Two Military regiments are looking after the border with India. One is Chengdu and the other one is Lanzhou. So is that… he used to be in the small group of Tibet, general Yang Jinshan and last week there was a joint military exercise between India and China. And they say that the purpose, objective of this military exercise were anti-terror. So I wrote the anti-terror against whom? Against the Tibetan and Uyghurs [inaudible], it can only be this. But he is the one who is officiating and received General [inaudible] and… he is really person looking after all military affairs. There is a new person, general Xu Yong, who is the commander of the Tibet Military District… Just a word about Lanzhou military regiment and the Xinjiang military district which face Ladakh. And you know about the incident, the entry or concerned intrusion into India’s territory. And the incident near the Karakoram pass in Depsang plain. That General Peng Yong was the army commander and I written, I always some feeling, that he was… he had taken the decision on his own without referring to Lhasa. Now, last week when that car rammed into some tourists in Tiananmen Square, the day after he was sacked. But actually it has nothing to do with law and order and the problem with whatever is happening in Xinjiang [inaudible] if there they say they are terrorist and thing like that, He is only purely army so my reading is that he was sacked because of having provoking India, It might have been a deal with India to sign. You see… the previous commander of the… general Guo Yili he died of a heart attack, so he was commander of the PAP in Tibet and he was replaced by, two months back, by another general. So I think they have a tough time also, I’m not going to try or to... but I think it it’s a very tough posting I’ll say. So he was 54 only when he passed away. You see it was at the time all the in driru and also Garze there was all the demonstrations. Xi Jinping visited Tibet in July 2011, he went to Nyingtri and he said that he remember… he mentioned when he spoke to the Tibetan delegation, he mentioned that he knows that many of the now senior cadre in the politburo and all have been linked with Tibet. And he said that he will probably continue to help us stabilize the situation. That’s the meeting he had in… so Jampa Phuntsok, Pema Choling, Lobsang Gyaltsen…

Claude Arpi: …And just a few words to conclude because I have gone over [time]. The main objective that he mention, Xi Jinping at that time, was the maintenance of stability and leap- frog style developments. Means you provide development you give more infrastructure, more road you make the Tibetan wealthier. The increased GPD last year was 12% while in China it was 7.5% so you make the Tibetan[s] richer and you solve the problem of stability. Unfortunately… for them it has never worked that way. But he mentioned also… that the special characteristic of Tibet must be respected with even greater protection for its culture and religious face as well as continuous support for its rapid leap-frog economic development. Now, I don’t know how much is going to be implemented; if it’s just words when he met the delegation, or not. But only the future will tell us if he can give us another direction like Hu Yaobang when he visited in May of 1980, when he visited Tibet. If Xi Jinping along with [Yu Zhengsheng] can give a new direction to the Tibet or if they will continue the old way of more repression and more repression. I obviously [believe]… the more development will not help, but… what I hope that sometime when they to go for these inspection visit and they really seriously look at the ground situation that they will realize, but I’m not so sure because the past shown they have never realized. Because for them, if they lose in Tibet they will lose at the same time in Xinjiang and they will lose also in [Inner] Mongolia. So, that’s [the] other implication that they have to take into account. my concluding that we have to… that plenum, that third plenum for three days last week, people were… had great expectation especially of economic reform… but I think there [are] limitations their own power struggle; you know the big general chief also have been overspending, they have been corrupt, the PLA is totally corrupt. I think for Xi Jinping, they are studying the collapse of the Soviet Union and they are trying not to repeat the same thing. So, their first priority may not be Tibet or Xinjiang, but to try to root out corruption, to make the people’s life easier. You know that when people put petition now they are beaten in Tibet or mainland… This hukou [household registration] system of migrant worker; to work have no freedom and no facility. So, I think this time… they have priority, and huge state owned enterprise also who are losing money and who are not efficient. I mean we know in India what means state owned enterprise, you can look at the BHEL or DRO [inaudible] they are unable to do anything. So, they want to clean up this first. Of course, [inaudible word: seven?] small group that I mentioned before on national security, so this will be probably have consequences for Tibet. But I don’t… I’m not sure that Xi Jinping has full control, though he has taken… it went much faster than Hu Jintao he became chairman of CMC, he became president in no time. But still within the central committee it will depend how much he can bring reforms, but Tibet may not be the first priority.

Thank you

Question & Answer Session

Questioner 1

Good morning sir, I have three sets of questions, and I’ll be very brief. My first question is in your presentation you said the policies on Tibet have been framed during the work forum, but the work forums are held for only [every] 5-10 years. So does it mean that they don’t make policies… in between?

Claude Arpi

The first one was about Work Forum. In between Work Forum I think that they tried to take a decision for 5-10 years and stick to it because the advantage of the Work Forum it’s such a large meeting where everybody is represented. So they cannot have such meeting every year or so. So, they take considering the situation at that time they take direction and they try to implement it after. So, I don’t think they can keep changing in between and like that.

Questioner 2

During the second to fourth work forum, they have proposed infrastructure projects amounting huge amounts of dollars, but then in the fifth work forum they have not proposed any projects as such. So what could be the reason, because most of the infrastructure projects are still going on in Tibet.

Claude Arpi

The second question was about… I think the infrastructure continues. The point with the infrastructure is always dual use. It’s used for the PLA for, the Army, like for example when they do all this work in Nyingtri; airports, 5-6 airports now with Nagchu very soon or the train. Next few months the train will reach Shigatse. This is [an] ongoing project which will use for civilians for stabilizing… the situation as well as for in case of a conflict… to bring troops. But it’s very clear that the infrastructure even if it’s not mentioned precisely probably because of that that times during 2010 the situation was very acute after 2008. The stability issue was very acute, so they insisted more on stability than on infrastructure as any case is going on when Yu Zhengsheng went to Lhasa in August two of the main participants people, who were senior cadre, were accompanying him were dealing directly with infrastructure.

Question 3

From first to fourth work forum all the… policy have been confined only to the ... The most important selling feature during the fifth work forum it has tried to confined, it has tried to include all the three traditional provinces of Tibet. So does it mean that all the policies failed during the first to fourth work forum, has not implemented beyond the Tibetan Autonomous Region. Thank you.

Claude Arpi

About larger Tibet, I mean, I think it’s mainly due to the riots after in 2008 of the March. So then they, we saw that map of Tibet and I have noticed nearly or immediately after in their website Tibet-china website, Tibet-China Online… they started to include news and if you look at the main website today. They give news from , from , from for they give you from Labrang Tashi Kyil or from Karze or from not only restricted. So it’s true in their mind the riots, the unrest in 2008, March-April 2008, has really changed the map of Tibet. In one way is what His Holiness has always been asking that the three regions should really have one policy… without saying it, and they will never say it openly but… it’s like an admission the fact that the fifth work forum… included also Tibet what they call Tibet inhabited area.

Questioner 4

I would like to take you to the third plenum station that has been recently concluded. So, in your presentation you said that areas of the discretion economy, work forum, and national security… The purpose of the national security work forum was to monitor demonstration[s] and protests. So, what is your opinion, do you think that China will deploy more army to Tibet? Do you think the situation in Tibet will become more oppressive?

Claude Arpi

I think frankly speaking, I don’t know. And after… the third plenum they have published a small press release which if you read the words is very vague. You can understand whatever you want. So it’s very good for the journalist and for the commentator to give their own interpretation, but nobody really knows. Now even if you take the NSA, the national security adviser… and small group for the national security affairs, it doesn’t know. It doesn’t say if it will include foreign affairs or only internal affairs. It’s in that Jiang Zemin when he was going, he went to in the 90’s, to Washington and he was very, very impressed by the whole of the NSA for coordinating all national security issue[s] in America. So that time the seed of the NSA came. Now, Xi Jinping probably has pushed that new thing, but we still don’t know. The commentators do not agree. Now they say that for the first time, usually after the first communicate, it takes months to publish the full text of their decision. So, morning today morning they say it will be published in ten days, one week, ten days; we will have the full text. So it will be maybe slightly clearer of the… small press release. At that time we may know if they will increase, but they don’t really need the NSA to increase if necessary... I think one of the important factors is infrastructure. Now this is a road to Methok, if they want to bring… PLA to the border it’s much easier than it was previously. Same thing when the train will reach Shigatse early 2014… If there is [an] issue, law and order issue. And I think one of the objectives of to have very quickly an airport in Nagchu. It will be also in 2014 it’s also to try to so call stabilizes the area, which is now in turmoil. And they don’t know how to solve it because if they have to send one of the deputy secretary for two-three months. I don’t know those of you who follow the, I mean you know better than me because you can follow the Tibetan, Tibet-Daily and everything. But if you read the paper and realize that the deputy secretary for two-three months is there, it means there a big problem, no?...

Questioner 5

In your presentation there was a comment about an army general or commander who acted without any… order from the center, acting on his own. So, I would speculate that many of these… repressions that we have seen in Tibet and areas, somehow the local leaders and local politicians, the party secretaries would act on their own without the any explicit order from the central. Now having the fact that… we have now the Security Council… after this third plenary… and of course like you said, we don’t really know what is going to be. What is the stated… responsibility of this security council will be, but somehow have you seen some willfulness from the Xi Jinping... in terms of centralizing the king of securities policies that he would want to practice.

Claude Arpi

I think we have… We’ll have to wait for this National Security Council… small group for national security, what is its composition. Usually these small groups are for coordination. They take people, but of course it is true what you say in the beginning, very often each local boss is doing his own thing. One factor also I very briefly mentioned that the corruption within the PLA. You know the first thing that Xi Jinping did in January-February of 2013; during their spring festival was to ban the banquet. The wife of the PLA general [was] not supposed to spend lots of [inaudible] buying things. The plates of the car, they gave 10-20 different cars, Mercedes, Ferrari, Maserati, you cannot use PLA plate, it means that before they were using means there was so much corruption in the PLA and so much Beijing is very far from Xinjiang. So that General was sacked, god knows what he was doing. What make me think that something has happened that prime minister [inaudible]… is quite weak, very weak with dealing in China in general? But he said no, no that depsang incident in 16 of April is due to local, local issue. He used local issue, and he spoke of local issue. And it happen just two weeks back that general [Peng] Yong was sacked, so I put one and one together. But like everything in looking at china is guessing, guessing thing. There was the CIA wrote a very beautiful report that you should read it was I think in 1974, '73 or '74, at the end of the cultural revolution. It’s about the art of watching China, so these 20 pages or so. I mean I was telling Thubten Samphel la that you know divination is much more accurate than art of watching China, so you can make no mistake... Even the best watcher do a lot of mistake, so you guess, maybe you’re right or sometimes wrong.

Questioner 6

Since nothing is immortal, of course the Tibetans are not immortal. And China is not immortal, and definitely the Communist Party of China. So therefore, change is imminent is a question of just time and the mode, how will they change? So I see just briefly three options now they have one is just let it lose and it goes away like a wild fire, without any control. So this is what I think the people are most afraid of especially the common people in China. And the second one is that the there is a greater change started from the independence and the peoples respect to people rights, and that may slowly just evolution or perhaps democratic way or a peaceful, building of a peaceful society in China, not in Tibet. And the third option is to have a party system, multi-party system. The communist party should be wise [inaudible] to work aside or just retire very gracefully and then let people participate in the building of the nation. So what my question is either by watching, maybe using the tools of the CIA, bunch of pages, so what do you think that they have these three choices, which one would they be heading for in the next let me say the shortest time like 15 years.

Claude Arpi

About the… Yes, I think nobody is immortal and the CCP is not immortal at all. I mean if you look at history on centuries you can really see that all big empires, look at the British Empire were so powerful, so powerful and in '47. And now England is a small island, [inaudible words] they were so very upset the British, but [inaudible words] they just a small island. So maybe china also will explode. I know that many people have predicted the collapse of China. They have written books and they are selling their books much better than me. But its something that sells very well to say that China will collapse. I think China is… they are quite intelligent and they are study scientifically the history also… I mention the collapse of the Soviet Union. They asked the Chinese of social science to do very in-depth studies. So, these three options they know which one they can take if they want to. If they let loose, they know that they it will follow the Soviet model… Xi Jinping has mentioned very clearly, we cannot let loose. The multi- party system is an invention of the West, of the America, it’s not suiting China. So we should have a model with Chinese characteristics. So their third option is to keep the party as it is but to purify it to, to cleanse it, to remove all and to do what it calls mass line program; is to go to the people, to listen to the people and to respond to their aspiration. But now if it can, I personally have strong doubts it can work because it has not work in the early days of Mao Zedong. It became very corrupt during the Cultural Revolution, with Mao’s wife and this entire thing. It’s clear that Xi Jinping wants to preserve the party, purify the party to make it an instrument for the people. If you look in China, everything is peoples. People’s national congress, People’s Liberation Army, People’s this people that… Here we have Rajiv Gandhi university… we use Gandhi in India for everything. There they use people, but actually they cut from the people, they are totally cut. But I think it’s very old, when they were in the cave Mao Zedong, already there was different treatment for different leaders. And one time there was a dissident in the '40s, when they were in the cave who wrote why should the Senior Party leader Mao Zedong and all dine and wine and dance, they love dancing at night, while the ordinary soldier had hardly any, enough to eat. So, already there was… there’s never been pure the party. You cannot have a very strong people to be pure, so I feel it will have to collapse. Let’s hope that immortality will be very short and Tibetans will have some freedom…

Questioner 7

This year recently completed the plenum meeting they have decided to [inaudible] an extra board or council for national security purpose. So and also very recently the guy Tibet-Chinese general secretary, party general secretary has said that we will cut off any sign of the Dalai Lama from the Tibetans. No speech no picture, no nothing, nothing [inaudible] finally they said… he will swear out every kind of connection. But of course that could be physical. But in the spiritual level, on the mental level nobody, nobody even the gods they cannot, they will not cut off the spiritual connections between the Tibetans and the Dalai Lama. So such drastic statements or actuals if they ever implement[ed]. Do you think this will encourage or this will compel more self-immolations in Tibet? Thank you.

Claude Arpi

I think, Zhu Weiqun that quote you mention, but at the same time in China there’s also other opinion. That professor Jin Wei, from the Party school, she published that article that interview in Hong Kong in which she said that we have to work with the Dalai Lama. That the golden urn has been manipulated. The golden urn will not work, we don’t want two Dalai Lama like we have today two Panchen Lama. What you mention is one view only. And Zhu Weiqun, if it’s that quote is from Zhu Weiqun. Now he is out of power, he has been replaced in the United Front. He’s not in the deal in the future with the… His Holiness envoys, but these guy to come in the press you know they put very radical. They have a set of retired generals or so who put very aggressive thing against Japan or India. So, their master, China, to use these type of people you know to show the extremist views, it doesn’t mean all the leadership believe in that view.

Questioner 8

Bon jour, I’m glad to hear you once again. I’m little bit curious to know your scholarly opinion that His Holiness has recently commented that the number of liberal-minded amongst the Chinese educated people is increasing and this isolates the hardliners in the Chinese leadership. So, what do you think, how much impact does positive change got… bring to the or among the Chinese leadership while formulating the policies on Tibet. Thank you, sir.

Claude Arpi

I think the vast majority of people, I mean I’m not speaking for the few people that have come to Dharamshala and His Holiness has met here or America or Europe. The vast majority of Chinese are totally uneducated about Tibet. They don’t know about… I’ll tell you a small incident in Auroville in our school. We have two Chinese young, 10 and 11 or something like that… Around Losar we had invited the Tibetan children village, 15 kids from Suja School. So they were invited to the school to speak with… to all the students. One Chinese, one young boy, refused he said they don’t like us… I don’t want to attend that session. One young girl, she was very courageous, she came. And this Tibetan… the boys and girls from Suja they start telling their own story, you know about how they escaped from Tibet. And that Chinese girl she start crying, she said “no, no is not true I have never heard this I always”… because she only came recently to Europe she been for 10 years in China. She said “I have never heard this… Tibet has always been part of China”. And she start crying, “I didn’t know we did this to the Tibetan”. So, it became very dramatic. The young Tibetan they start crying also. After they kissed each other, they say very sorry, everyone say sorry and everything. And they invited that girl to come to the Tibetan Pavilion to visit their exhibition of history of Tibet. My point is in school the 90.99% of Chinese… have only the image of Tibet what they are told by the party. And yesterday I gave that presentation in a museum, there is 15 million Chinese who come to Tibet as tourist, they will also only get that vision because all the museum, all the exhibition, everything is done, or the Wencheng opera, is to project Chinese version of history. So I think it’s only a small minority, but hopefully slowly by slowly they will get more educated. But today apart from certain intellectuals, very rare or some professors like that, mostly they just have to swallow the parties’ version of history…

Sonam Tenzin

Okay, it looks like we are out with time. We have used all the time concluding remarks from the moderator. Claude Arpi I thank you very much, you have taken us quite appropriately and sequentially starting with the structure of the Chinese authorities to relevant to the Tibetan decision making for the Tibetan people, state council, structure of the CCP in Tibet. What we noticed from the presentation is even though there may be a number of members in the CCP in Tibet there are hardly few, few Tibetans in it; to name a few Pema Choeling, Lobsang Gyaltsen, Norbu Dhondup very few Tibetans and they too with hardly any decision making powers. It seems therefore what has we have been hearing for the past twenty years has still remained, nothing has changed in terms of who makes decisions. The topic today, who makes China’s Tibet policies is quite apparent the decisions are made by… decisions effecting the Tibetan people inside Tibet are made not by the Tibetan leaders but by the Chinese leaders. What I liked about our presenters, some of the words that I will probably not forget is Yu Zhengsheng, perhaps we should be using Yu Zhengsheng the one that you had used.

I think from this talk what we take is the most recent plenary that was held appears to be putting some groups together, maybe one or two groups together, in the name of reforming the country and stabilizing the country. In other words, words of the author of this morning…, controlling the people, controlling the provinces, controlling the people who are more rebellious and [are] troublemakers. Claude Arpi on behalf of the civil servants who are gathered here as well as those who are not able to gather [inaudible] I would like to thank you very much for taking your time and [for] making the presentation. On behalf of the CTA we would like to thank you very much, from the bottom of our heart. Thank you very much.

Claude Arpi

I just I… I think it’s… not easy if you take it from the point of view of Xi Jinoing today. Like when he came into power, last year he said he will stop the labour camp. Because he knows his own father had suffered so much. He was a nine years old kid when Xi Zhongxun in ‘62 September was sent to the, this prison, imprisonment, and labour camp. So one of the first thing he said was he will stop this labour camp, now after one year he has not been able to stop it. And still there is a lot of discretion. So, it means that even if there is a will at certain level, of certain people to change, it takes time. And there is so much [inaudible] and power struggle that it will take time. But immortality we should shorten it, shorten it.

Thank you!