INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH
Madhya Pradesh Election Visit Freebies working, but not for long
INDIA | STRATEGY 15 November 2018
We travelled 1,000kms through rural and urban Madhya Pradesh (MP) to gauge veridical Anjali Verma sentiment about elections and government policies. We saw that rural MP has received (+91 22 62464115) every benefit from state and central policies – a factor supporting the BJP. However, the [email protected] underprivileged want more – a reason for angst among the middle class because of higher taxes on them – and clearly evident in the states’ stressed fiscal condition. Infrastructure Neeraj Chadawar has seen a substantial upgrade across MP (particularly roads). Cash spending has been (+91 22 62464116) tight ever since demonetisation, causing unhappiness among all people (even now); GST [email protected] and higher compliance cost is an added issue. We see anti‐incumbency partly shadowing Raag Haria the BJP government’s constructive efforts and steps taken towards the development of (+ 9122 6246 9943) the state. Thus, it is likely to be a very close contest between the BJP and the Congress [email protected] (INC). The Congress is likely to gain more seats vs. last elections; BJP leads currently. Our analysis Meaningful development has taken place in MP during Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s 15‐year tenure as the Chief Minister of the state. The people are fond of him and dotingly call him Mamaji. Substantial progress has happened in road infrastructure, with assured regular water/power supply, better health facilities and numerous benefits for the poor (subsidies/benefits on food, fertilizers, seeds, crops, healthcare, electricity, transport, tractors, jobs, etc.). Government (BJP) policies are pro‐poor and it is spending a sizeable amount on rural development – this is paying off as nearly 72% of MP’s population resides in rural areas and 55% is dependent on agriculture. Here are some observations from our visit: (1) BJP is facing considerable anti‐incumbency, (2) There is a section of people – such as daily wagers, businessmen, and traders – that are disappointed with the incumbents due to lack of jobs/profits and GST/demonetisation. (3) The fact that the ruling government can promise limited incremental benefits to the people of MP is an impediment to victory. (4) There seems a mixed response from the rural population – while some were quite appreciative of the BJP government’s efforts, others complained about delivery. Lack of cash payments and the addition of structured layers for receiving benefits is a source of dissatisfaction. All this portends a close fight between the BJP and Congress with the latter predominantly fighting on employment issues (we found it to be a real problem across rural and urban MP) and favoured by anti‐incumbency. Vote‐swing probabilities • In 2013, parties won 117 seats with a margin of less than 10% votes. These seats will be the flashpoint for a swing in vote share for the upcoming elections. Of these 117 seats, BJP won 72 seats and Congress 40; 48 seats (28 ‐ BJP, 16 ‐Congress, 3 ‐ BSP) are crucial due to their thin margins of less than 5,000 votes. • In the 2013 elections, votes of the underprivileged were distributed similarly between the BJP and Congress (at 44%). In 2018, these votes could add to the swing factor. In 2013, the upper/middle/lower classes had favoured the BJP over Congress. • 2013 saw SC votes split three ways between the BJP, INC and BSP. Despite this, the BJP managed to win 28/35 SC seats. However, this time, any swing in SC votes could lead to a decrease in the BJP’s seats. • People are likely to give greater weightage to candidates and the work done.
The government’s benefits for the public (particularly rural and BPL) are extensive. While the public has gained, the fiscal stress is substantial. Fiscal deficit for FY19 is budgeted at 3.24% and can slip to 3.5% after accounting for freebies/subsidies distributed to the public. New private sector investment in MP is tepid, despite numerous investor meets. Sector growth has been led by agriculture (significant progress seen), followed by services while industry has lagged behind. BPL (Below Poverty Line) population constitutes 32% of the state’s total population.
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Our travel across MP • 1,000km Ground View visits to Madhya Pradesh. We started at Ujjain (Malwa region) and travelled through Indore to Bhopal. Malwa is a traditional demographic for the BJP, where it holds 54 out of 62 seats with more than 50% vote share. • We then headed to the Baghelkhand region where BJP is not only fighting with the INC, but also with the BSP in most of the border areas of Uttar Pradesh. • Finally, to get a flavour of development there, we travelled to Mahakoshal region from Jabalpur. Here, the BJP holds 34 constituencies out of 49 with almost 50% vote share vs. 39% for INC. • We met with farmers, traders, distributors, shopkeepers, politicians, and journalists. • Our aim was to get a perspective on the economic, business, political, and sentiment‐driven impact of the state and central government’s policies rolled out in the last five‐years.
Travelled 1,000 kms across MP over five days
MP road trip: A highway distance sign
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MP Road trip – the ruling government has done a lot, but it is facing anti‐incumbency On 28th November 2018, 230 seats will be contested in MP with the results scheduled on 11th December. BJP has been the ruling government in MP for the last 15 years, in which period it has offered many benefits to the underprivileged. Nevertheless, it is likely to face the stress of anti‐incumbency. PM Modi has had a great influence on people, along with Shivraj Singh Chauhan. Many candidates have switched parties (BJP has many aspirants due to its size and success; it is well managed), which, as always, will play an important role in election making.
People told us they think that the Congress’ campaign is deep‐rooted. The party has released its manifesto, promising farm‐loan waivers, lower fuel prices, unemployment benefits, and higher benefits for housing construction, among others. The BJP party is yet to release its manifesto.
INC Manifesto INC renamed its manifesto to Vachan Patra. Here are the key highlights: • Farmers: Has promised to waive‐off farm loans at nationalised as well as state government cooperative banks, and reduce electricity bills of farmers by 50%;. 7.0‐7.2 million farmers will benefit. • Aam Admi: Promise to reduce petrol , diesel, and cooking‐gas prices. • Youth: Rs 10,000 per month unemployment allowance for one member of a family. • Girls: Rs 51,000 at the time of marriage. • Landless people: Rs 250,000 for the construction of houses on a plot size of 450 sq. ft. • Other major highlights: Free laptops to all toppers; “Gou shala (cow shed)” in each gram panchayat.
Election history of the Madhya Pradesh assembly MP INC BJP BSP SP Others IND GGP BJSH Total Party Won 2013 58 165 4 3 230 BJP 2008 71 143 7 1 3 5 230 BJP 2003 38 173 2 7 5 2 3 230 BJP 1998 172 119 11 4 5 9 320 INC Source: India Votes
A BJP follower has gained from the Modi Chai Stall However, he said, “Congress ki lehar hai is baar (there is a Congress wave this time)”. In his area, BJP has done tremendous work.
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Feedback from farmers and rural MP
Mixed reaction to Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana (BBY) We reached Bhopal early in the morning and thought it was the best time to visit the Sehore mandi (market in Hindi), where farmers come to sell their produce. We were surprised to see that some of the farmers had been waiting for their turn at the mandi since the previous night – and peacefully. These long waits were for the traders to reach the mandi and buy their produce. These farmers were selling fresh soybean at a going rate of Rs 2,900/quintal while the MSP for soybeans is set at Rs 3,400/quintal. In another mandi, near Jabalpur, farmers had gathered to sell corn, which has seen good output.
Under the Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana (prevalent in MP since October 2017), the balance amount (Rs 500) is transferred to the farmers’ bank account by the MP government. We learnt from our interaction with farmers that it takes about one to six month for the benefits to come into farmers’ accounts. Many were uncertain about whether transfers would happen at all this time (in case the BJP government is not re‐elected). Some also complained that they haven’t received last year’s dues. Lack of cash availability, due to strict checking by the Election Commission, is delaying payments to the farmers in the near‐term.
Strict checking witnessed across MP by the Election Commission
While some farmers were satisfied with the incremental benefits that they were receiving from the government on soybean, many complained that largely only the traders benefit. Additionally, they said that due to the Bhavantar Bhugtan Scheme, market prices were constrained. These prices would otherwise have been higher and would have directly benefitted farmers. We received a similar response about corn.
In another mandi in Ujjain, smaller farmers were not aware of BBY, while larger farmers were happy with the scheme and supported it. The soybean market rate here was Rs 3,100/quintal, due to better quality of crop.
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Long queue of trucks/tractors to sell soybean and corn in mandis around MP
Crop insurance – It is working Most of the farmers have benefitted from the government’s crop insurance scheme and have been receiving Rs 5,000 per acre, twice a year. Smaller farmers didn’t seem to be utilizing the scheme as much as larger farmers. We were told that larger farms are being divided into smaller ones for registration in order to receive higher benefits from crop insurance.
India Crop Insurance Scheme (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojna ‐ PMFBY) PMFBY is a crop insurance scheme designed to provide cover against failure of crops and help stabilize farmers’ income. The scheme covers all food & oilseed crops, and annual commercial/horticultural crops. PMFBY is compulsory for all farmers that obtain crop loans/KCC accounts for notified crops. It is voluntary for other/non‐ loanee farmers to get their crops insured. In the event of crop loss, the farmer will be paid based on the difference between the threshold yield and actual yield. The threshold yield is calculated based on average yield for the last seven years.
Premiums: These would be 2% of sum insured for all kharif crops, 1.5% for rabi crops, and 5% for annual commercial/horticultural crops – as a percentage of coverage decided based on the farmers land. The difference between premium and the rate of insurance charges payable by farmers shall be shared equally by the centre and the state.
Sum insured: The ‘sum insured’ would be equal to ‘scale of finance’ for that crop as fixed by District Level Technical Committee (DLTC). Where the value of the threshold yield is lower than the scale of finance, the sum insured will be a higher amount. Multiplying the Notional Threshold Yield with the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of the current year one arrives at the ‘value of sum insured’. For crops where MSP is not declared, farm‐6‐gate price established by the marketing department / board shall be adopted.
A total of Rs 50.8bn out of the Rs 151.8bn earmarked by the centre has been spent in Madhya Pradesh alone. A total of 1.64mn farmers benefited, with each of them receiving Rs 31,036 on an average.
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Tractors downloading soybean in Sehore Mandi, MP
Madhya Pradesh farmers insured under the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojna Farmers Gross Farmers Farmers Area Insured Sum Insured Premium State GoI Premium Claim Paid Benefited Insured (mn) (ha) (Rsmn) (Rsmn) (Rsmn) (Rsmn) (Rsmn) (Rsmn) (mn) Rabi 2017 3.1 5,574,999 183,745 3,122 4,302 4,302 11,726 1,505 0.2 Kharif 2016 4.1 6,399,822 183,111 4,209 10,992 10,992 26,194 18,395 1.1 Kharif 2017 3.6 6,520,763 235,268 5,081 14,949 14,949 34,979 50,819 1.6 Source:Ministry of Agriculture, GoI
PM Awaas Yojana (PMAY) – All the people we met had availed of the benefit of Rs 120,000 towards the construction of their house under the PM Awaas Yojana. This scheme also provides employment to daily wagers. They told us, “Sar pe chatt de di Modiji ne, is se jyaada kya maang sak te hain (Modiji has given us a roof over our heads, what more do we need to ask for).” However, many complained of the inability to receive benefits as government officers seek money to clear/approve documents for house construction.
As per our reading, PMAY scheme is going to play a crucial role in supporting the BJP in state elections. We saw many new houses being constructed under this scheme.
People of MP are happy with Modiji’s policies and partly happy with Shivraj Singh Chauhan
“ Modiji ne to sab de diya, unhi ko hi waapas laayengey (Modiji has given us everything ; we will get him re‐elected.”
Kuccha (primitive) houses being converted to pukka (modern) house across MP, using PMAY
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Electricity benefits People praised the chief minister, as every house now had electricity vs. the previous regime. Additionally, the CM recently launched SAMBAL Yojana for the BPL category. Under this scheme, electricity bill of the BPL families is capped at only Rs 200. People were quite thankful to the government that their electricity bills reduced to Rs 200 (irrespective of usage) from Rs 600‐800 per month earlier. While most have availed of this scheme, in some areas, these benefits haven’t reached yet.
PM Ujjwala Yojana Most MP residents have applied for this and have received LPG gas connections. However, they are facing problems in receiving cylinders at a subsidised rate and complained that it is turning out to be more expensive than the ‘chulah (wood‐fired)’ system. We informed them that the subsidy benefit should reflect in their bank account (they were not aware of this). A sore point was the upfront payment of Rs 1,000 per cylinder (the subsidy takes more than a week to reflect in their accounts).
PM Jan Dhan Bima Yojana is being used by everyone. Most farmers have bank accounts and receive benefits directly into their accounts. In interior areas, farmers showed lack of interest in visiting banks and there was lack of access.
Health facilities There seemed to be reasonable improvement in government hospitals. Doctors, nurses, and medicines were regularly available. The ambulance availability was appreciated. There was no information/awareness about Aayushman Bharat.
CM Helpline – Very effective Farmers/rural India seemed extremely appreciative of the CM’s 24*7 helpline. They told us that all their problems were resolved within a weeks’ time. All complaints were accepted, lodged, and addressed. There were checks to ensure that all complaints were resolved within a certain timeframe. The website CMhelpline.mp.gov.in showed that total complaints received were 7,199,517 of which 6,795,243 (94%) were resolved.
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The complaints… Jobs and education – Lack of jobs and job opportunities is a problem that everyone is facing. People said that there were no new industries to offer jobs to the youth. While there are many engineering colleges, there are no jobs for the graduates of these colleges, and they end up migrating from the state. TCS has now built a centre while Infosys’ facilities are under construction – these should offer better opportunities to these graduates.
People complained that not much has been done by the government to generate employment
Another interesting observation was that the people were so used to freebies that they were unwilling to work. This seemed to be adding to the problem of labour availability in the state.
Daily wagers – All of them were unhappy about governance and lack of benefits for their ilk. They were vehement that they would vote for the Congress, as the BJP government hasn’t offered them any benefits. All announcements were on paper, and even as they complained, nothing was actually available. There is lack of employment and daily wages (at Rs 200‐250) are miniscule considering inflation. Many daily wagers were unable to open bank accounts due to lack of adequate documentation.
Delivery of benefits is not up to the mark – While much has improved in terms of Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT) electronically, which are deemed well‐targeted, people complained about the time gap in receiving benefits vs. the immediate cash payments that they had to make. Underprivileged people, the ones that typically need these benefits the most, lack money; not surprisingly, such delays affect them. These delays were largely blamed on administrative laxity and gaps, despite the government’s good policies.
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Journalists’ view point Journalists believe that there is likely to be a close fight between the BJP and Congress, with the BJP already on a better footing that could improve after PM Modi’s rallies. BJP is suffering from anti‐incumbency and unemployment is a big problem in MP because of which the party is launching 50‐100 new and credible faces. People are still very fond of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and can associate with him. According to reporters, he has done a lot of good work and has good communication skills. BJP also benefits its large size and disciplined and dedicated workers.
Another view was that if the Congress had formed a pre‐poll coalition with the BSP, it would have worked in the former’s favour. In case the Congress falls short of a few seats to form the government, the BSP is likely to support Congress. Both Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia are campaigning aggressively in MP. The chief ministerial face of Congress isn’t announced yet, as that can cause rift. Both Kamal Nath (71, one of the longest serving and senior most members of Lok Sabha belonging to the Congress Party)and Jyotiraditya Scindia (47, MP, related to the Scindia family that once ruled Gwalior) are liked by their supporters. Kamal Nath has done a lot of good work in his constituency according to journalists.
Business Viewpoint While business people appreciated infrastructure development and some of the policies, in general, sentiment was weak due to rising competition, demonetisation, and GST. Businesses were laying off employees to manage cost pressures. While GST was hailed as a good step, it was causing compliance costs and difficulty to escalate.
Business people said that modern trade was eating into the business of distributors and the latter felt like they could only stand by and watch this happen as modern trade was a layer of competition that was rightfully receiving benefits from companies due to large volume share. This is leading to margin pressures. While some businesspersons said that they would vote for BJP (due to lack of options), others said that they would give elections a miss this time.
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Madhya Pradesh’s political battleground
War against anti‐incumbency – Party‐wise victory distribution in the 2013 Assembly
BJP INC BSP
Source: Maps of India
Madhya Pradesh: Regional distribution
Source: Live Mint, Trivedi Centre for Political data
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Ground View – 1,000km across Madhya Pradesh
Our Ground View visit to Madhya Pradesh started with Ujjain, which is a part of the Malwa region in Madhya Pradesh, followed by Indore and Bhopal. Malwa is a traditional demographic for the BJP where it has 54 out of 62 seats, with more than 50% of vote share. From Malwa, we headed towards Baghelkhand region where BJP is not only fighting with the INC but also with the BSP in most border areas of Uttar Pradesh. Finally, we travelled to the Mahakoshal region from Jabalpur to get a flavour of development – there the ruling party (BJP) holds 34 constituencies out of 49 with almost 50% vote share vs. 39% for INC.
Game of numbers 2013 Assembly election Victory Margin (%) Margin (%) BJP INC IND BSP >=25% 23 4 0 0 >=15%<25% 28 7 0 0 >=5%<15% 76 22 1 1 <5% 38 25 2 3 Total Seats (230) 165 58 3 4 Vote share 46% 36% 6% 12% Source: India votes, PhillipCapital India Research
In 2013, the incumbent (BJP) government won with a remarkable majority (46% vote Around 117 seats that the BJP, INC, and share). The BJP was able to capture 165 seats in the 230 seats MP assembly vs. 143 other parties won with a margin of less seats and 38% vote share in 2008. A sharp turnaround in vote share helped the BJP to than 10% in the 2013 elections will be convert almost 38 nominal‐margin seats (won with less than 5% margin) into victory, crucial in 2018 while it won 51 seats with a comfortable margin of more than 15%.
Around 117 seats that the BJP, INC, and other parties won with a margin of less than 10% in the 2013 elections will become the epicentre of the swing in vote share in the 2018 election. These seats would face maximum anti‐incumbency and unemployment‐related sentiment swings.
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Seat dynamics
In 2013, the BJP performed well in all five regions of Madhya Pradesh and was able to capture 46% vote share vs. direct competitor INC that received a vote share of 36%.
In Chambal, the BJP was able to convert 20 seats into victory (out of a total 34 seats) with a vote share of 38%, which was only 2% more than INC; here, BSP received 16% vote share. There was a similar performance in Bagelkhand, where the BJP received 39% vote share vs. INC’s 33% and BSP’s 12%. For the remaining three regions, BSP’s visibility was very low – so the BJP’s direct fight was with the INC; this being a traditional demographic region, BJP benefited and gained higher vote share in 2013. This time, these three regions are likely to face maximum anti‐incumbency and unemployment‐related sentiment swings.
Region‐wise seats distribution in the 2013 assembly election Total Seats Vote Share (%) Total Seats BJP INC IND BSP BJP INC BSP Others BagelKhand 56 36 18 0 2 39% 33% 12% 16% Chambal 34 20 12 0 2 38% 36% 16% 11% Mahakaushal 49 34 14 1 0 46% 36% 3% 15% Malwa North 62 54 7 1 0 52% 38% 2% 9% Malwa Tribal 29 21 7 1 0 46% 41% 2% 12% Total 230 165 58 3 4 46% 36% 6% 12% Source:India Votes, CSDS survey, 2014 LOkniti, SAGE Publication, PhillipCapital India Research
Not an easy going for incumbents Incumbents have been in power in Madhya Pradesh for the last 15 years, out of which 12 years were chaired by the current Chief Minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, popularly known as Mamaji. He is a well‐liked face in Madhya Pradesh along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is one of the major reasons why BJP was able to perform exceptionally well in the 2014 general election. That year, BJP won 27 out of 29 Lok Sabha seats with a remarkable 55% vote share, which was almost 10% greater than the 2013 assembly elections vote share.
The belief is that the BJP government has delivered in Madhya Pradesh in terms of catering to the basic requirements of the people. Kushal Pal Singh a resident of Fanda village on the busy Bhopal‐Sehore Highway told us, “Mamaji has given us 24 hours un‐interrupted electricity, eight hours of electricity to farms, and we’re getting benefits under Bhavantar Yojna. People are benefitting under the Sambal Yojna, Ladli Lakshmi, and the Mukhyamantri Teerth Yarta Yojna and other major schemes. This is what we will expect from the government ahead”.
After 15 years in power, Shivraj Singh Chouhan is still popular with the masses, but anti‐incumbency is a major factor that could hinder the BJP’s victory. Babulal Malviya, a daily wager that we spoke to, earns Rs 200‐300 per day working under the Pradhan Mantra Aawas Yojna. He said he was not happy with the overall performance of the government. “We’re not getting work on a regular basis. Few of us have not been able to get the benefits of LPG subsidies or the Sambal Yojna. Unemployment is the biggest issue, especially among daily‐wagers, and the BJP will have to face our wrath,” Malviya told us.
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Risk of a pendulum shift for low‐margin seats • 48 out of 230 constituencies in the 2013 assembly elections were won by a nominal margin of less than 5,000 votes. • Out of 48 critical seats (28 for BJP, 16 for INC), 23 seats were won with very thin margins of less than 2,000 votes. These seats are spread across the region – 12 are in Bagelkhand, 10 in north Malwa, 9 in Chambal and tribal areas, and 8 in Mahakoshal.
2013 assembly elections: Critical seats with nominal margins Victory Margin BJP INC IND BSP Total GEN SC ST <5000 votes 28 16 1 3 48 28 10 10 <2000 votes 12 9 1 1 23 13 5 5 Source: India Votes, CSDS survey, 2014 LOkniti, SAGE Publication, PhillipCapital India Research
2013 victory by nominal margins Runner‐up candidate Margin Victory Seats Won BJP INC IND BSP SP others BJP 28 ‐ 25 0 2 1 0 INC 16 16 ‐ 0 0 0 0 <5000 Votes IND 1 1 0 ‐ 0 0 0 BSP 3 2 1 0 ‐ 0 0 Source: India Votes, CSDS survey, 2014 LOkniti, SAGE Publication, PhillipCapital India Research
2013 assembly election: Critical seats with margins of less than 5,000 BagelKhand Chambal Mahakaushal Malwa North Malwa Tribal Total BJP 8 6 4 6 4 28 INC 3 3 4 3 3 16 IND 0 0 0 1 0 1 BSP 1 0 0 0 2 3 Total 12 9 8 10 9 48 Source: India Votes, CSDS survey, 2014 LOkniti, SAGE Publication, PhillipCapital India Research
Caste Equation
What are the economic classes thinking? In the assembly elections in 2013, support for the BJP was almost uniform across all economic classes. Conversely, INC had higher support from the underprivileged compared to well‐off people. Similar support was seen for BJP in the 2014 general election, in which it gained more confidence from the upper and middle classes vs. its direct opponent INC, while its performance improved with the under‐privileged.
Support from different economic classes in the Assembly Election 2013 BJP INC BSP Others NOTA Upper 42% 27% 3% 26% 1% Middle 46% 34% 6% 9% 5% Lower 45% 38% 8% 7% 1% Poor 44% 44% 7% 5% Source: India Votes, CSDS survey, 2014 LOkniti, SAGE Publication, PhillipCapital India Research
Support from different economic classes in General Election 2014 BJP INC BSP Others NOTA Upper 55% 27% 2% 14% Middle 53% 36% 4% 7% Lower 56% 32% 4% 4% 4% Poor 48% 47% 4% 0% Source:India Votes, CSDS survey, 2014 LOkniti, SAGE Publication, PhillipCapital India Research
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What are the different castes saying? A favourable factor for BJP in its remarkable victory with a majority in 2013 was the votes from traditional upper castes and a consolidation of votes from OBC, SC, and ST categories. After the 2013 election, surveys showed that along with all major upper castes such as Brahmins, Rajput, and Yadavs, ‘other OBCs’ had also favoured BJP in 2013. On the other hand SC votes were split between BJP, INC, and others despite which BJP converted 28 out of 35 SC seats into victory. This time around, any swing in SC votes could lead to a decrease in the number of seats for incumbents.
Support from different economic classes in the 2013 assembly polls BJP INC BSP Others NOTA Brahmin 57% 22% 6% 15% Rajput 60% 25% 3% 7% 5% Other Upper castes 43% 25% 4% 24% 4% Yadav 67% 25% 3% 5% Other OBC 44% 35% 6% 12% 3% SC 36% 33% 22% 9% Bhil 35% 51% 2% 12% Gond 52% 41% 3% 4% Other ST 50% 41% 3% 4% 2% Muslims 17% 72% 1% 10% Other 55% 26% 7% 12% Source: India Votes, CSDS survey, 2014 LOkniti, SAGE Publication, PhillipCapital India Research
Critical seats won with margins of less than 5,000 in the 2013 assembly elections BagelKhand Chambal Mahakaushal Malwa North Malwa Tribal Total GEN 38 27 28 48 7 148 SC 9 7 5 11 3 35 ST 9 0 16 3 19 47 Total 56 34 49 62 29 230 Source: India Votes, CSDS survey, 2014 LOkniti, SAGE Publication, PhillipCapital India Research
Victory margin (%)in the 2013 assembly elections ______BJP______INC______Other______Seats Total Seats >10% >10%<5% <5% Total >10% >10%<5% <5% Total >10% >10%<5% <5% Total GEN 148 58 25 23 106 13 9 17 39 1 0 2 3 SC 35 17 2 9 28 1 1 2 4 1 0 2 3 ST 47 18 7 6 31 4 5 6 15 0 0 1 1 93 34 38 165 18 15 25 58 2 0 5 7 Source:India Votes, CSDS survey, 2014 LOkniti, SAGE Publication, PhillipCapital India Research
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MP Macros • Madhya Pradesh is the fifth most populous state in the country with a population of over 72.6mn people. Population has increased at an average annual pace of 22% since 1991. • Rural population accounts for nearly 72% of the state’s total population. • The demographics of the state over the past two decades have remained stagnant; Madhya Pradesh has not experienced rapid urbanization unlike other states. Its urban population accounted for 28% of the total population in 2011 vs. 25% in 1991. • Moreover, the sex ratio has changed little since 1991 and stands at 931 females per thousand males. • In terms of literacy rates from an overall perspective, Madhya Pradesh has made significant progress – rising from 45% in 1991 to 69% in 2011. However, literacy rates for backward classes remain low (SC: 16%, ST: 21%). • While the state has made significant progress in alleviating poverty, it still ranks amongst the highest in the country with 32% of the population (23mn people) still below the poverty line. • Madhya Pradesh is home to 6%/15% of India’s scheduled caste/tribe population. Nearly 16% of Madhya Pradesh’s population is classified as scheduled caste and 21% is classified as scheduled tribe.
Madhya Pradesh’s economy has seen a CAGR of 7% over the last six years (FY12‐18) (vs. 8% national growth). The economy expanded 7.3% yoy in FY18. Sector growth is led by services, agriculture, and industry, which contributed 39%, 33%, and 28% of the total GSDP in FY18, respectively. The services component was the largest contributor to the state’s GDP, followed by agriculture and industry. However, MP’s agricultural economy is seeing its highest pace (9% CAGR over FY12‐18), outperforming the national growth of 3%. MP’s services sector has seen 7% CAGR vs. the national average of 8% and its industrial sector is at 5% CAGR vs. national 7%.
Since the agriculture sector has been growing at a favourable pace and there is lack of opportunity in other sectors and regions (urban), the state has not seen rapid urbanization seen in other states in the country. Madhya Pradesh ranks fourth amongst nineteen key states that will incur high fiscal deficits in FY19. The state’s fiscal deficit for FY19 is likely to breach the proposed 3% mark to touch 3.24%; in fact, it could even slip to 3.5% for the year. However, the state has nearly eliminated its revenue deficit and is likely to turn revenue surplus in subsequent years.
Water sprinklers are being used across MP for irrigation – a new technology being promoted by the ministry of agriculture
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The agriculture sector employs a majority of the state’s population in rural areas (72%) while for the urban population it is wholesale‐retail trading/ services/ manufacturing at 26%/24%/16%.
Madhya Pradesh GSDP (yoy %) Madhya Pradesh GSDP components (Rs bn)
14% Agriculture Industry Services GSDP (rhs) 12% 1,800 4,800 12% 11% 1,700 4,600 10% 1,600 4,400 1,500 8% 7% 4,200 1,400 4,000 5% 6% 5% 1,300 3,800 1,200 4% 3,600 2% 1,100 2% 1,000 3,400 900 3,200 0% 800 3,000 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Source: RBI, CSO, PhillipCapital India Research
CAGR growth (FY12‐18) Madhya Pradesh fiscal deficit and revenue deficit as a % of GSDP
10% Madhya Pradesh India GFD/GSDP RD/GSDP 5%
8% 4%
6% 3%
2% 4% 1% 2% 0%
0% Agriculture Services Industry GSDP/GDP
Source: RBI, CSO, PhillipCapital India Research
Madhya Pradesh Fiscal deficit (Rs bn) FY16 FY17 FY18 (RE) FY19 (BE) Revenue Receipts 1,111 1,232 1,351 1,559 Tax Revenue 806 902 972 1,141 Non‐Tax Revenue 305 330 379 417 Capital Receipts 247 306 336 419 Total Receipts 1,359 1,539 1,687 1,977 Revenue Expenditure 1,107 1,195 1,345 1,556 Interest Paid 86 91 120 129 Capital Expenditure 175 273 281 293 Total Expenditure 1,282 1,468 1,626 1,850 Revenue Surplus 4.4 37.1 5.7 2.6 Fiscal Deficit 212 257 241 268 Primary Deficit 126 141 121 139 Source: RBI, State Budget Document, Niti Aayog, PhillipCapital India Research
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Madhya Pradesh Tax revenue break‐up (Rs bn) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 (RE) FY19 (BE) Total Tax Revenue 563 607 806 902 972 1,141 State's Own Tax Revenue 336 366 409 440 583 755 Taxes on Income 3 3 3 3 3 3 Stamp Duty & Registration Fees 34 39 40 39 48 56 Goods & Service Tax (GST) 220 409 CGST 70 191 SGST 98 202 IGST 51 16 Taxes on Commodities & Services 288 315 356 388 299 268 Sales Tax 166 181 200 226 152 115 State Excise 59 67 80 75 81 90 Taxes on Vehicles 16 18 22 23 28 32 Taxes on Duties & Electricity 20 20 22 26 28 31 Share in Central Taxes 227 241 397 462 388 388 Corporation Tax 76 84 131 148 156 182 Income Tax 50 60 97 103 131 148 Customs 37 39 61 63 37 29 Union Excise Duties 26 22 40 72 39 29 Service Tax 37 36 68 74 24 ‐ Source: RBI, State Budget Document, Niti Aayog, PhillipCapital India Research
Madhya Pradesh Revenue expenditure (Rs bn) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 (RE) FY19 (BE) Total Expenditure 699 824 1,107 1,195 1,345 1,556 Developmental Expenditure 447 558 773 843 903 1,071 Social Services 278 321 466 474 563 623 Education, Sports, Art 137 162 189 211 231 270 Medical & Public Health 29 41 49 50 54 65 Family Welfare 4 4 4 4 5 6 Water Supply & Sanitation 9 9 13 30 31 31 Housing 3 10 15 33 85 73 Urban Development 16 14 41 48 51 48 Welfare of SC, ST & OBC 24 22 39 31 32 41 Labour & Labour Welfare 2 3 4 3 4 7 Social Security 28 21 46 39 45 51 Nutrition 11 11 12 14 13 18 Relief on Account of Natural Calamity 11 21 52 11 13 13 Economic Services 170 237 307 369 339 448 Agriculture & Allied 62 83 101 103 110 163 Rural Development 34 66 73 88 76 87 Irrigation & Flood Control 8 8 7 7 7 9 Energy 33 51 82 125 105 140 Industry & Minerals 15 13 24 28 24 26 Transport & Communications 14 13 15 12 12 15 General Economic Services 2 2 2 3 3 3 General Services 206 224 269 310 367 367 Grants‐in‐aid & Contributions 45 42 65 69 75 75 Source: RBI, State Budget Document, Niti Aayog, PhillipCapital India Research
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Madhya Pradesh Capital expenditure (Rs bn) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 (RE) FY19 (BE) Total Capital Outlay 108 119 175 273 281 293 Developmental Services 106 116 172 266 274 284 Social Services 19 21 37 33 51 76 Education, Sports, Art 1 3 11 7 9 18 Medical/Public Health 2 2 2 6 16 14 Water Supply & Sanitation 8 9 9 7 8 14 Housing 1 1 1 2 0 1 Urban Development 1 1 7 2 6 13 Welfare of SC, ST & OBC 3 3 5 5 11 13 Social Security 3 1 1 2 1 1 Economic Services 87 96 135 233 223 208 Agriculture & Allied 2 2 1 7 4 6 Rural Development 7 12 24 32 23 31 Irrigation & Flood Control 45 41 65 85 69 87 Energy 6 9 5 47 67 22 Industry & Minerals 2 1 1 15 3 3 Transport 24 29 37 47 56 59 Gen. Economic Services 1 1 1 1 1 1 General Services 2 3 3 7 8 9 Source: RBI, State Budget Document, Niti Aayog, PhillipCapital India Research
Madhya Pradesh population (‘000)
80,000 Rural Urban Total
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
‐ 1991 2001 2011
Source: RBI, CensusIndia, PhillipCapital India Research
Schedule caste population as a % of total population Schedule tribe population as a % of total population
India Madhya Pradesh India Madhya Pradesh 20% 30% 18% 16% 25% 14% 20% 12% 10% 15% 8% 6% 10% 4% 5% 2% 0% 0% Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total
Source: RBI, CensusIndia, PhillipCapital India Research
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Madhya Pradesh overall literacy rate (%) Madhya Pradesh’s literacy rate schedule wise ‐ 2011 (%)
Literacy Rate (%) Literacy % 80% 25% 69% 21% 70% 64% 20% 60% 16% 50% 45% 15% 40% 10% 30%
20% 5% 10%
0% 0% 1991 2001 2011 SC ST
Source: RBI, CensusIndia, NITIAayog, PhillipCapital India Research
Madhya Pradesh poverty rate (%)
60% Poverty Rate (%)
48.60% 50%
40% 36.70% 31.65% 30%
20%
10%
0% 1991 2001 2011
Source: RBI, CensusIndia, NITIAayog, PhillipCapital India Research
Madhya Pradesh rural employment break‐up (‘000) Madhya Pradesh urban employment break‐up (‘000) Agri Agri Mining Mining Manufacturing Manufacturing Electricity 1% Electricity Construction Construction Wholesale/Retail/Trade etc. Wholesale/Retail/Trade etc. Transport, Storage & Comm. 1% 11% Transport, Storage & Comm. 5% 20% Financial/Insurance 0% Public/Admin 16% 72% 13% 4% 9% 4% 1% 12% 1% 26% 1% 3%
Source: RBI, CensusIndia, NITIAayog, PhillipCapital India Research
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Madhya Pradesh economic/social statistics FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Installed Power Capacity (MW) 8381.34 8779.9 10631.65 13804.6 15845.11 17643.96 19618.28 Per Capita Availability of Power (kWh) 640.4 570.2 609.8 680.3 731.2 859.2 905.8 Length of Nat. Highways (kms) 5027 5027 5064 5116 5116 5184 5194 Length of Roads (in the state) (kms) 189915 197293 201261 228816 279996 288931 289940 Railway Route (kms) 4948 4955 4954 4955 4976 4979 5000 Deposits by Schedule Comm. Banks (Rsbn) 1381 1669 1986 2249 2793 2825 3130 Credit by Schedule Comm. Banks (Rsbn) 768 945 1157 1358 1530 1729 1906 Credit to Agri Sector (Rsbn) 211 270 292 397 464 505 568 Credit to Industry (Rsbn) 257 298 347 358 382 393 408 Personal Loans (Rsbn) 174 205 218 288 344 414 481 Social Sector Expenditure (Rsbn) 234.5 271.3 333.7 357.4 443.8 619.2 722.9 Per Capita Income (Constant) (Rs) 38551 41287 42778 44357 46324 52406 55442 Source: RBI, CensusIndia, NITIAayog, State Government, CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
APPENDIX
Ladli Lakshmi Yojna
Source: Governmentyojana.in
Ladli Lakshmi Yojna’s aim is to eliminate school dropouts among girl students and to encourage them to study at least up to the pre‐college level. Benefits under this scheme start right from the birth of the girl child and they will continue until the girl gets married.
How it works: The government purchases National saving certificates of Rs 30,000 (Rs 6000/year for five years post birth), which it renews from time to time. On completion of 21 years, a girl child would get Rs 100,000 along with partial payments of Rs 13,500 in grade 6, 9 and 11 and a total Rs 4,800 (Rs 200 monthly) during higher secondary education. This scheme is limited to the BPL category; also, it mandates that the girl should not marry before the age of 18 years.
So far, benefits were given to 2.7mn girls; Rs 90bn is budgeted for this scheme in FY19.
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Mukhyamantri Teerth Yarta Yojna
Source: Seekhe.com
Under the Mukhyamantri Teerth‐Darshan Yojna, the state government will extend one‐time assistance in a lifetime to senior citizens above 60 years of age to visit a prescribed pilgrimage outside the state.
How it works: Pilgrims must be over 60 years of age and have Madhya Pradesh domicile. They must not be taxpayers and should not have taken benefit of Teerth‐ Darshan Yojna earlier.
This scheme targets 100,000 eligible people every year
Sambal Yojna
Source: Airinfo.com
What it is: Eligible consumers would need to pay an electricity bill of only Rs 200/ per month. If the payable bill is of a lesser amount, the actual payment amount has to be paid. If the electricity bill exceeds Rs 200, the difference will be given in the form of subsidy by the government.
Benefits given to: Electricity given at Rs 200/ month to 8.8mn families in the states, this scheme is applicable in rural as well as urban regions. The benefit of this scheme is limited to BPL families only.
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INDIA STRATEGY UPDATE
Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. Rating Criteria Definition BUY >= +15 Target price is equal to or more than 15 of current market price NEUTRAL ‐15 > to < +15 Target price is less than +15 but more than ‐15 SELL <= ‐15 Target price is less than or equal to ‐15.
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