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Issue Brief # 259 March 2015

Innovative Research | Independent Analysis | Informed Opinion

China’s & Regional Security Implications An Indian Perspective

Dhanasree Jayaram Manipal University

One of the characteristics of ’s dependence on the Tibetan was ‘peaceful rise’ has been its endeavour to negligible and almost all the waters flowed to control environment, demonstrated mainly by the lower riparian countries. Today, with signs its -building policy. The country is home to of environmental change in northern China, half of the world’s roughly 50,000 large dams the government has decided to exercise its and many more medium and small-sized ones rights over the watercourses in the Tibetan aimed at control, energy production Plateau, primarily to divert waters from the and irrigation. In addition, the proposed North- -rich South to water-deficient North. Way South Canal (which would entail extensive back, om 1952, pointed out that, damming of rivers) is touted to solve the water “The south has a lot of water, the north little....If crisis in the North and address climate change possible, it is okay to lend a little problems due to glacial melting such as water” (Chellaney, 2012: 182). He had flooding in the South. recognised the relevance of the for China’s survival. China has been actively diverting river waters in its territory for different purposes. Before the However, the World Commission on Dams has People’s Republic of China came into being found several gaping loopholes in the whole in 1949, it could boast of a mere 22 dams of exercise of building dams and their any significant size. Now, if all the dams of all functioning, whether in terms of power sizes are taken into account, the number generation or irrigation or flood control, most could well go up to 85,000 (Chellaney, 2011). importantly its disastrous socio-economic When China annexed , the latter’s implications. Many of these dams are built in seismically volatile areas and are allegedly products of “tofu” construction (poorly constructed, involving less time and money). Dam collapses have been reported in many Dhanasree Jayaram is Ph. D. Candidate at the regions as exemplified by the 2013 incident in Department of Geopolitics and International Shanxi province. Dams have been held Relations, Manipal University and Project Associate at responsible for several disasters including the Manipal Advanced Research Group (MARG), pollution, droughts, flooding, earthquakes, soil erosion and landslides in several parts of the Manipal University country, killing thousands of people, especially

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in Southwest China. This has in turn resulted in Part of China (CPC). In fact, one of China’s various forms of social and economic many hydraulics engineers, Professor Liu Zihui, upheaval in China, not only due to human while speaking about the largest hydraulics displacement but also the negative effects of project in the history of humanity, a $63 billion damming on the environment, including flora canal that would bring water from the south and fauna. There have been widespread of China to the north of China, commented, protests against dams; but they have largely “I don’t feel we are conquering nature. We been overlooked or quelled. Environmental think nature itself isn’t fair. God isn’t fair. What changes are compounding the natural risks to is that? He’s given Southern China so much dam-building despite the improvement in water but given the North so little. It’s good safety measures and steps taken to mitigate land – nice flat land – up there. But it’s got so environmental impact over the years. Yet, the little water. So we say, as God isn’t fair, we are Chinese leadership has given the go ahead trying to balance out God’s for the construction of an array of dams, unfairness” (Paskal, 2012). including the world’s tallest dam along ’s . These dams threaten not only China’s economic, political and Socio-economic Problems social security but also regional security as they are built on rivers such as the Yarlung Resettlement remains one of the greatest Tsangpo, Salween and that flow bones of contention vis-à-vis any large-scale down to countries in South and Southeast developmental project. Construction of Asia. reservoirs and dams has led to three major consequences in China – economic impoverishment, social instability and Understanding China’s Damming environmental degradation – particularly Philosophy regarding resettlement. The displaced population is forced to cope with the loss of Confucianists propagated control of the their land that in most cases is arable. After water flow to both protect populations and resettlement, their land area per capita harness . Conversely, the Daoists declines, which eventually results in firmly believed that humans should simply degradation in land quality. move away from flood plains and allow rivers to flow their natural course. According to Additionally, the resettlement schemes have Judith Shapiro, it was during Mao’s 27-year reportedly been inadequate and largely long reign that environmental degradation mismanaged. Studies have also revealed that started in China, starting with large dam there has been a noticeable gap in the constructions in the 1950s and collapse of compensations paid for urban and rural numerous small dams built with “tofu” populations. The displaced are known to construction during the have faced immense difficulties in restoring (‘Harnessing the Waters: Nature Conquest in their livelihoods, as well as in getting access to China’s Past and Present’, 2003). food and water and other amenities such as and transport. In short, This legacy was continued by successive “landlessness, joblessness and homelessness” leaders and governments of the Communist became widespread phenomena in regions that were affected by construction of dams and reservoirs (Heming, Waley and Rees, 2001: 199). Social instability is caused mainly due to the displaced population’s dissatisfaction with the resettlement schemes or the authorities’ unreceptive attitude This brief provides a historical-cum-ongoing towards them. Many a time, this results in account as well as an assessment of the future of conflicts between different groups as well. China’s dam-building exercise, its rationale and Environmental destruction is, among others, a consequences at all levels – geographically, result of construction of dams, small or big. Those relocated in this process lose their environmentally, socially, economically and traditional connections with the land that politically; andargues that they threaten China’s would eventually be flooded by the dam. In many cases, people are dislodged from security and its “peaceful rise/development.” relatively flat and fertile areas and resettled in inhospitable terrain or infertile hill slopes. 2 People begin to cultivate on steep hill slopes

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and in other upland areas, leading to Various studies show that China’s dams are destruction of forests and grasslands, causing soil erosion and increased water runoff. In increasingly adding to its geological vulnerability. other cases, due to migration of the For instance, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake displaced, places with plentiful resources and fertile lands become overcrowded and when was supposedly triggered by the nearby Zipingpu the population pressure crosses the Dam. Southwest China is seismically vulnerable manageable threshold, land and other and not conducive for large projects... Many environmental resources get degraded irreparably. There are instances in which dams in Sichuan and Yunnan have thus come people have had to be relocated a second under the scanner for their ability to induce time due to the aforementioned reasons as seen in the case of the Sanmenxia project earthquakes. (Heming, Waley and Rees, 2001: 199-201). The vital interests of the local residents and local governments are largely overlooked. streets and clashed with the police. The Hence, one of the biggest drawbacks of primary reason for the protests was that the China’s dam policy is that the displaced new location they had been relocated to was population is viewed as an obstruction to the a seismic zone and it had experienced a mild dam or to the central government’s earthquake; and they feared that their “tofu” development agenda; in short, to national buildings might collapse like the “tofu” schools interest. Instead, they should ideally be in the neighbouring Sichuan province in the viewed as either contributors or victims of the 2008 earthquake that killed more than 7000 projects that displace them. China’s three- children (Lafleur, 2011). In case of the Three pronged resettlement strategy used in the Gorges Dam, protests were rampant project are: first, ‘settling throughout the relocation period due to migrants in nearby areas on land to be inadequate compensation paid by the farmed’; second, ‘allowing migrants to move government and alleged misappropriation of to and live with relatives in urban areas’; and funds allocated for compensation. The third, ‘moving migrants far away’ (Heming, farmers who reportedly “complained to Waley and Rees, 2001: 199-202). However, the foreign journalists about corruption among authorities’ inability to provide sufficient officials in charge of resettlement” were compensation to the uprooted population, arrested on the charge of “leaking state such as jobs to urban populace and/or secrets” (‘China’s Three Gorges’ Project: Dam alternative quality (mainly fertile) lands to Shame’, 2002). farmers, defeated this strategy and later gave Environmental Problems rise to widespread discontent among the people. Therefore, such displaced In addition to other types, environmental populations have a contrasting perspective security should be deemed as an important to the country’s global image as an component of national security. Various ‘engineering’ superpower. In response to the studies show that China’s dams are discontent, the government is now resorting to increasingly adding to its geological ‘developmental resettlement’ or vulnerability. For instance, the 2008 Wenchuan ‘resettlement with development’. With this, its earthquake was supposedly triggered by the efforts have been to invest the relocation nearby Zipingpu Dam (Adams 2013). funds in major developmental projects such Southwest China is seismically vulnerable and as cultivating cash crops, improving existing not conducive for large projects. An farmlands and setting up industrial units/ earthquake induced by large reservoirs enterprises instead of allocating the financial erected on fault-lines is referred to as compensation directly to the displaced ‘reservoir-’; “a reservoir with (Heming, Waley and Rees, 2001: 199). a capacity of over 1 billion cubic metres and a dam more than 100 metres tall would have There have been several protests against a 30 per cent to 40 per cent chance of damming in China due to the government’s inducing an earthquake” (Qingyun, 2013). inefficient and insufficient resettlement Many dams in Sichuan and Yunnan have thus policies. But such protests have largely been come under the scanner for their ability to suppressed by the state authorities in the past. induce earthquakes. Additionally, these For example, in 2011 nearly 2000 migrants dams, if damaged or obliterated by displaced by Xiangjiaba dam on the upper earthquakes, can lead to a large numbers of River in Yunnan Province took to the deaths in the region. 3

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The faulty construction of Chinas many dams, Peng, 2006: 112). sometimes called “tofu” construction, add to the problems. According to Zhou Jianping, Contamination of water by ore tailings is dam disasters are largely attributed to “low being touted as yet another threat to water standards, including inadequately prepared security in China as well as in its surveys, unscientific design and construction neighbourhood. For example, the Tibetan plans, mismanaged construction, absence of Plateau has reserves of 126 different minerals quality control and supervision, and even including copper, iron, boron, chromite, fraud in the procurement of building corundum, crystal, uranium, gold, and materials” (‘Dams gone wrong: Is danger molybdenum, among others. The ore lurking in China’s dams?’, 2011). In 2007, separation process produces toxic tailings Sanbanxi Dam in Southeast Guizhou capable of contaminating water resources. collapsed after only 13 hours of operation due Dams are built to hold tailings too. If such a to poor construction quality. Similarly, in 2013, dam collapses, the toxic ore residue has the a 100m-long stretch of the dam collapsed potential to contaminate all the freshwater and flooded 19 downstream villages in Shanxi bodies in its vicinity. In 2011, such a dam Province (‘1 Killed in Dam Collapse in Shanxi’, collapsed at a manganese mine and created 2013). The Three Gorges Dam has been held 43 per cent emergency cases by poisoning responsible for “risk of geological disaster” as it drinking water in a nearby river, destroying is linked to “soil erosion, quakes, drought and houses and relocating more than 270 social upheaval” as the State Cabinet itself residents in the area (‘China is Being Wasted has admitted (, 2011). Landslips, minor by its Dam Disasters, 2011). earthquakes and cracks are allegedly The Three Gorges Dam, in addition to other appearing in and buildings between aforementioned issues, is also known to have the dam and the city of (Collard, had an adverse effect on fresh water 2010). A crack in this dam could affect the resources, especially fish. A huge body of lives and livelihoods of nearly 300,000 people. stagnant water has allegedly toxic algae Among other environmental problems, blooms that affect aquatic as well China’s mega city, could face as make the water not potable. Moreover, severe water problems owing to rampant fluctuations in the reservoir level (by 100 feet hydropower development in the upper every year) have reportedly destabilised the reaches of Yangtze River. Due to extensive slopes and caused several landslides. In construction of dam reservoirs, lesser amount reaction to the growing opposition against of freshwater flows to Shanghai from the many polluting industries, China, under former upper reaches. This could result in saltwater President Hu Jintao and former Premier Wen intrusion (‘Hydropower Poses a Threat to Jiabao, allowed many environmental Shanghai Water’, 2013). organisations to flourish in the country. It also Silt has been a major impediment in China’s created a Ministry of Environmental Protection dam operations. The Sanmenxia reservoir, one in 2008 to strengthen environmental of the many dams on the , was regulations and reduce carbon emissions filled with silt in just six years, drastically among other priorities. It put the construction reducing its ability to store water. Later, the of several dams in the country on hold dam could generate electricity for only a few (Bosshard, 2009/2010: 48-49). months during winters (as during this time the silt load in the river is at the minimum level). Silt effectively diminishes the useful life of the Regional Implications of China’s turbines (Chengrui and Dregne, 2001: 16). As Dams: An Indian Perspective stated earlier in the paper, such large projects ultimately result in large-scale flooding of “the China’s management of the Mekong River best farmland with the favourable climatic that originates in the Tibet has faced criticism conditions.” As the population relocates to from the entire world, particularly Southeast upland areas and hill slopes, referred to as Asia, which is at its receiving end. Four “upland displacement”, more land would be countries of the lower Mekong basin – Laos, required to produce food and with increasing Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam – depend population, more and more land will have to on this river for food, water and transportation; be converted into farmlands. This leads to soil and they have been distressed by China’s erosion, which could also escalate into activities on the river. Dams on this river have geological disasters such as landslides and been held responsible for drought in some of debris flows. This could be aggravated by these countries. In 2010, the river had acutely -building (Yonghui, Baiping, Xiaoding and low water levels due to comparatively lesser 4

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monsoonal rainfall the previous year and light consists of three stages – eastern, central and rainfall in the dry season. This is said to have western routes. Some reports suggest that the been exacerbated by dams upstream in first two stages involve diversion of waters from China. It generated losses worth millions of China’s internal rivers (mainly Yangtze River to dollars (Leitsinger, 2010). In Thailand, fishing Yellow River), while the third one has trans- communities are the most-affected as they boundary ramifications, especially for South are forced to stop fishery when the water Asia. The western route targets the Salween, levels go down significantly. Vietnam’s the Mekong, the Brahmaputra and the Jinsha farming area that is fed by the Mekong has (Chellaney, 2012: 139). However, conflicting been threatened time and again. Ponnudurai reports state that the project originally (2010) points out the relevance of the involved only internal rivers (as proposed by Mekong for Vietnam – the low-lying Mekong Mao) and that the third leg involves water delta in Vietnam is home to over 18 million diversion from the upper reaches of the people and contains vast farmlands source of Yangtze only, albeit revision of this proposal by nearly half of Vietnam’s rice crop. It is already the later regimes to include the Brahmaputra vulnerable to sea level rise. When the cannot be discarded (Krishnan, 2013). It is also freshwater flow from Tibet decreases, speculated that China is planning to build the seawater intrusion is expected to increase world’s largest dam and hydropower station and reduce the agricultural yield further. on the Brahmaputra at the Great Bend (the China has refused to be a full member of the place where the river takes a U-turn to enter Mekong River Commission, which was formed the plains of Assam via Arunachal Pradesh) by the lower basin countries in 1995 to monitor (‘Monitor Brahmaputra to Rule Out Chinese hydropower development in the lower Dam’, 2013). China’s lack of transparency has Mekong basin. As Richardson (2009) reports, left experts in India and Bangladesh guessing efforts by the four countries to urge China to about its future actions with respect to its assess downstream river changes caused by diversion plans. its dams and engage in technical cooperation have failed. It has been a One important factor that needs to be taken dialogue partner, a position that allows it to into account while analysing the diversion evade scrutiny of its dams and its rights to projects from the point of view of the lower harness hydropower potential of the river, 21 riparian countries is that the average runoff of per cent of which lies in China. the Brahmaputra increases drastically when it reaches Bangladesh, due to monsoonal The environment is changing at an waters and the water contributed by the unprecedented pace due to both natural . Therefore, a dam intended for and human-induced causes, if not put in hydropower generation might not make perspective could definitely culminate in much difference to the runoff but concerns tensions or conflicts between China and its regarding contamination, sedimentation and neighbours. Simultaneously, China, a closed flash remain. It could even increase the system that does not disclose any information dry season flow if China is engaging in only regarding its river management policies, has non-consumptive usage of water as it claims. been in the process of changing various If China decides to divert waters during the facets of environment to fulfil its requirements. monsoons only, such an act is also not has always maintained ‘strategic expected to cause any water insecurity for silence’ on its water diversion proposals and India and Bangladesh. The excess waters projects that makes any form of cooperation during monsoons have always been a source between China and its neighbours, including of concern for those two countries as they India, a difficult proposition. Approximately, cause annual floods, at times proven 354 BCM of waters flow from Tibet to India out destructive, especially in the case of the of which 131 BCM is accounted in the Assam floodplains and low-lying areas of Brahmaputra River; China is planning to build Bangladesh. However, if China diverts during twenty-eight dams on this river alone the entire year, it could pose serious (Chellaney, 2012: 44). challenges for India and Bangladesh. The dry China’s determination to implement the season flow could diminish by a great extent Great South-North Water Diversion (SNWD) in the north-eastern parts of India. For Project has already unleashed several Bangladesh, the dry season could be drier. It environmentally catastrophic consequences has been argued that since India has 58 per for itself and now it is alleged that it could cent of the total Brahmaputra drainage basin have serious environmental implications for its and is dependent on it for almost 30 per cent neighbouring countries as well. The project of the country’s water resources and 41 per cent of its total hydropower resources while 5

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China controls only 20 per cent of the basin, inevitably become one of the biggest India has a greater right to the river’s concerns for the Chinese officials as more and resources (Chellaney, 2012: 191). more instances of cracks in the construction of dams are emerging. The Yangtze River, on which the Three Gorges Dam has been built, is the source of waters for The Chinese have forgotten one of world’s the first two legs of this grand project. biggest tragedies that unfolded on its land in Brahmaputra River could be afflicted by the 1975, when the Banqiao Dam in same problems the Yangtze has faced over Province collapsed due to a host of factors the past few years, in the future, that that (‘The Forgotten Legacy of the Banqiao Dam would directly affect India and Bangladesh. Collapse’, 2013). As accounted by Kaiman Moreover, the areas where these giant dams (2013), they are now planning to build the have been built or are being proposed to be world’s tallest dam along the Dadu, even built are seismically highly unstable. Any while accepting its ecological (including tectonic activity along the border would spawning and movement of rare fish species affect both India and China adversely. and growth of endangered plants) and socio- Allegations ranging from causing floods to the economic consequences. In 2013 alone, the use of nuclear explosives (in 2005) to create central authorities approved the construction tunnels for diversion of the waters of River of 13 dams on the , increasing Brahmaputra have been levelled against the risk of natural disasters such as landslides China. It was accused of creating flash floods and earthquakes in the south-western region. in Arunachal Pradesh, which were caused by These projects had been stalled for a long a breach in the upstream dam in Tibet that time due to pressure from environmental raised the level of the Brahmaputra by more groups and locals. than 30 metres (Vasudeva 2012). Similarly, Himachal Pradesh has also been affected From an Indian perspective, it is extremely allegedly by Chinese dam-building activities difficult to predict the India-China hydro- in the form of floods in 2000, 2001 and 2005 relations not only because of the uncertainty (Thakkar, 2010). The idea of diversion of the over the impacts of environmental change on waters of the Brahmaputra might still be alive the rivers flowing from the Chinese territory to in the Chinese engineering and circles, but as India but also due to the governance system of now several factors including technical of China that functions by and large in impediments, ecological sensitivity, difficult complete secrecy. Although Indian and terrain and domestic environmental Chinese officials have held talks and the latter movements hold the potential to stymie such have agreed to share hydrological a scheme. The use of nuclear explosives might information through a Memorandum of purely be a case of sensationalism. However, Understanding (MoU) on the Brahmaputra if China resorts to even conventional and the in flood season, the absence of engineering methods to implement this a bilateral treaty makes it next to impossible project, the implications for the whole region for India to verify China’s claims. Beijing is are expected to be disastrous. reportedly building dams in Dagu, Jiacha, Jiexu and Zangmu. India’s call for a water commission or an inter-governmental dialogue or a treaty was struck down by Conclusion China in 2013 (‘China Spikes India’s Proposal China’s water/river policies could adversely for Joint Mechanism on Brahmaputra’, 2013). affect not only the population of other In such a scenario, China could arm-twist countries in its neighbourhood but also its own India’s neighbours into supporting it by raising population as seen in the case of the Three the case of the Tibetan waters. The spree of Gorges Dam. China is confronting immense dams proposed by China could potentially socio-economic and environmental diminish India’s manoeuvrability in the region challenges due of its damming policies. in terms of its own plans to deploy Additionally, the country is also reeling under hydroelectric projects in its territory to fulfil its cases of corruption and environmental energy requirements (particularly in the less change-related disasters caused by its developed regions in the Northeast). It could development policies. Dam maintenance has also spark political tensions with India’s

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neighbours. Therefore India must galvanise Project Syndicate [Online], 2 December, the support of its neighbouring countries such Available: http://www.project-syndicate.org/ as Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh to prevent commentary/china-s-dam-frenzy, [20 August China from implementing large-scale 2013]. diversion projects that could affect water Chellaney, Brahma (2012) Water: Asia’s New security in the South Asian region as a whole. Battleground, New Delhi: Harper Collins. India should, with the aforementioned countries, also coax the international Chengrui, M. and Dregne, H. E. (2001) ‘Review community to pressurise China to respect the Article: Silt and the Future Development of China’s Yellow River’, The Geographical Journal ‘commons’ principle when it comes to trans- [Electronic], vol. 167, no. 1, March, pp. 7-22 boundary waters. It would also be prudent for Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3060335, India to include the China factor in its water- [10 August 2013]. sharing agreements with its own neighbours so that in the future, if a problematic situation ‘China is Being Wasted by its Dam Disasters’, arises (such as flash floods or severely Mines and Communities (23 August 2011), reduced water levels), the entire onus would [Online], Available: http:// www.minesandcommunities.org/article.php? not fall upon New Delhi. a=11112, [20 August 2013]. At a time when the West has applied brakes ‘China Spikes India’s Proposal for Joint on its hydropower projects and countries such Mechanism on Brahmaputra’, The Hindu (17 as India and other democratic countries in April 2013), [Online], Available: http:// the developing world have put on hold www.thehindu.com/news/national/china-spikes- several projects due to stiff domestic indias-proposal-for-joint-mechanism-on- opposition, China is increasing its hydropower brahmaputra/article4627285.ece, [20 August capacity day by day and has indeed 2013]. evolved into the biggest dam builder at Collard, T. (2010) ‘China: cracks in the Three home. If the cost-benefit analysis of Chinese Gorges Dam, so 300,000 people can wave dams is carried out in a more qualitative goodbye to their homes’, The Telegraph manner, then the losses incurred by China [Online], 7 June. Available: http:// would be much more than quantitative blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ benefits in terms of energy and agricultural timcollard/100042402/china-cracks-in-the-three- output. In the light of increasing socio- gorges-dam-so-300000-people-can-wave- economic tensions and security concerns, goodbye-to-their-homes/, [13 August 2013]. China needs to take a fresh look into its ‘China’s Three Gorges’ Project: Dam Shame’, hydropower policy and secure its own The Economist (4 July 2002). [Online]. Available: population. Moreover, the zero-sum mentality http://www.economist.com/node/1216380, [20 towards its neighbours could lead to a tense August 2013]. regional environment. Both these factors have ‘Dams gone wrong: Is danger lurking in China’s the potential to derail China’s growth story in dams?’, Probe International (24 August 2011), the long run. [Online], Available: http:// journal.probeinternational.org/2011/08/24/dams -gone-wrong-is-danger-lurking-in-china%E2%80% 99s-dams/, [17 August 2014].

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