Thematic | Value Migration Value Migration

Please refer our report published on January 2017 Value Migration 2.0: Digging deeper, exploring more themes Pace of migration accelerating in BFSI and Jewelry  In our Theme Report on Value Migration published in January 2017, we had dwelt upon the importance of staying with winning business models in ultra-disruptive times. India is indeed witnessing a phase of heightened disruption over the last three years, with transformational and game-changing reforms like GST, RERA, IBC (Insolvency and Bankruptcy resolutions), and Demonetization, driving underlying changes in the way businesses operate and create value for stakeholders.  To recap, along with various nitty-gritties of Value Migration, we had highlighted 26 case studies in our report, which touched upon cases where (a) Value Migration is already prevalent and has left a trail of winners/losers, and (b) Value Migration can drive changes in the ensuing decade. We had also discussed the disruptions caused by unlisted players and consequent challenges they posed to the listed ones.  In this sequel, we look at the progress/updates on some of the cases already highlighted and also dwell on two interesting new themes of Value Migration.

Recap: What is Value Migration?  Value Migration is defined by Adrian Slywotzky, author of the book “Value Migration”, as a flow of economic and shareholder value away from obsolete business models to new, more effective designs that are better able to satisfy customers’ most important priorities. The framework tries to identify industries where Value Migration is underway and can help pick potential winners early in the cycle.  Value Migration happens in three stages: [A] Value Inflow: In this phase, a company or an industry captures value from other industries or companies due to superior value proposition. The market share and profit margins of the company or industry expand. [B] Stability: In this phase, competitive equilibrium is established. Growth rates moderate. [C] Value Outflow: Value starts to move away towards companies or industries meeting evolving customer needs. In this phase, market share declines, margins contract, and growth stops.

BFSI – pace of Value Migration accelerating Value Migration from public sector (PSU) to private sector banks is one of the most prominent themes underway today. While the thesis has been playing out right and has many more legs to go, it is the pace of migration that has surprised us positively. We believe while the corporate banking sector in India has been under tremendous pressure over the past few years, the private sector banks are likely to emerge even stronger, while PSU banks will continue to face challenges on capitalization and growth. We further note that private sector banks have done a phenomenal job in building their liability franchise (strong traction in CASA mix) using both digital capabilities and rapidly expanding branch network. PSU banks’ market share loss has accelerated and we expect the trend to continue. Overall, there is a long way to go for PSU to private sector banks Value Migration and digitization will drive the trend

further, in our view.

Gautam Duggad – Research analyst ([email protected]); +91 22 6129 1522 Bharat Arora – Research analyst ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5410

14Investors May 2018 are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. 1 Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. Thematic | Value Migration

Information Technology – staring at Phase-3 of Value Migration? For the best part of the last decade, the Indian IT services industry basked in the glory of low-cost talent, offering services 40-60% cheaper, with admirable flexibility to their global clients. It was the answer to large developed market clients’ need to optimize their IT spending. Championed by local and MNC peers alike, the model stabilized, and then, growth rates began to wane.

Fast forward to today’s era – clients’ spending pattern has moved to the duality of: [1] optimizing IT spends on existing programs further by use of cloud, automation, AI, RPA and SaaS technologies; and [2] investing these savings towards their digital transformation.

As a result of the above, the pie of bread-and-butter services for the industry has been directly hit, and the new services that provide growth opportunity are not moving the needle as much, thanks to low base. Besides, the new models are significantly deviant from status quo, requiring companies to embrace bold moves such as cannibalizing existing streams of cash generation, resetting to a lower profitability (at least in the interim) and actively chasing acquisitions.

In this context, we witness the three phases of Value Migration, starting from value inflow benefiting the regime of low cost sourcing route to IT spending optimization to value outflow towards models built on the combination of automation, cloud and digital technologies.

Oil & Gas: Green metamorphosis – Value Migration from Oil to Gas In the last few years, rising pollution has been at the forefront of the policy making and judicial activism in India. The focus on increasing penetration of gas becomes all the more important considering that in the latest study of the World Health Organization (WHO), half of the 20 most polluted cities globally are Indian. Policy initiatives in exploration and production (E&P) like Hydrocarbon Exploration Licensing Policy (HELP), Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP), premium pricing for gas production from difficult fields, and National Data Repository among others are expected to boost domestic gas production by ~10% YoY for the next 3-4 years.

With enabling policies, increase in gas supply and improvement in pipeline infrastructure, broadly, the whole gas sector is expected to benefit – producers, importers, transmission companies and city gas distribution companies (CGDs).

Consumer: Jewelry – massive Value Migration unfolding; multiple tailwinds conspire to augment the trend Opportunity for branded jewelers in an era of demonetization/formalization of the economy and Titan being the key beneficiary was one of the high-conviction themes we had focused upon as a part of long term Value Migration opportunities. Since then, additional growth drivers have emerged – GST implementation, which has further tilted the balance in favor of organized trade, rigorous provisions under PMLA, and credit squeeze for unorganized trade as fallout of the Nirav Modi scam. This is over and above the initiatives undertaken by company – aggressive expansion plans, focus on wedding jewelry portfolio. Titan has already been witnessing healthy

14 May 2018 2 Thematic | Value Migration

market share expansion away from the unorganized trade and has delivered strong performance over the last 18 months on revenue as well as profitability front. From a longer-term perspective, the management has guided for strong ~20% five-year revenue CAGR in its jewelry division. In our view, the Value Migration opportunity in the jewelry industry remains immense, given the size of the industry and Titan, as the only pan-national branded jewelry player, is at the forefront to capture this long-term opportunity.

Exhibit 1: Synopsis of Value Migration case-studies S.N. Industry Value migration thesis Remarks Winners/Losers 1 BFSI PSU Banks to Private Banks The pace of migration has accelerated HDFC BANK, IndusInd, KMB 2 IT Legacy models to Digital Entering Phase 3 of Value Migration Large-cap IT 3 O&G Oil to Gas Policy thrust - multiple winners IGL, Gujarat Gas, MGL 4 CONSUMER - Jewelry Unorganized to Organized Rapid market share gains for organized plays Titan

Source: Company, MOSL

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BFSI – Pace of value migration accelerating

Value migration from public sector banks – long way to go; digitization and superior customer service to further drive the trend In our first theme report, we had highlighted how the shift away from public sector banks to more agile, competitive and customer friendly private sector banks can happen over the next few years. While the thesis has been playing out right and has many more legs to go, it is the pace of migration that has surprised us positively. We believe that while the corporate banking sector in India has been under tremendous pressure over past few years, the private sector banks are likely to emerge even stronger, while public sector banks will continue to face challenges on capitalization and growth. We further note that private sector banks have done a phenomenal job in building their liability franchise (strong traction in CASA mix), using both digital capabilities and rapidly expanding branch network. This has enabled them to offer attractive lending rates, and thus, gain market share across most lending products.

Private sector banks have significantly strengthened their liability franchise; cross-sell abilities further driving business growth Till a few years ago, private sector banks, with the exception of Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, had lower CASA ratio than their public sector peers. However, over the last three years, private sector banks have invested heavily in technology and have come up with a wide variety of innovative products in assets and liabilities as well as enhanced transactional abilities. With a wider customer base, private sector banks have used their cross-sell capabilities optimally to sell both asset and liability products, which is visible in fast paced CASA growth. IndusInd Bank has reached out to government budgetary departments for dashboard solutions, which has enabled it to gain 60%+ YoY SA growth through FY18. Kotak Mahindra Bank has used its one-stop platform 811 to cross-sell liabilities, enabling it to achieve 50%+ SA growth through FY18.

Exhibit 2: CASA market share within our coverage banks – continuous shift to private sector banks* Total private Total PSU

86.0 85.1 84.8 83.8 83.3 82.9 81.8 80.1 79.4 78.0

19.9 20.6 22.0 14.0 14.9 15.2 16.2 16.7 17.1 18.2

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 3QFY18

FY18 PSU numbers are estimates Source: Company, MOSL

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Market share in digital transactions key to look at; private sector banks clear winners Private sector banks have made significant investments in building a digital architecture to support voluminous growth. This has lent scalability to their business while at the same time enabling them to improve upon customer experience. We note that the share of digital transactions for private sector banks (in both volume and value terms) is higher than their overall market share in systemic loans. This indicates the continued market share gains these banks can have as they further capitalize on their digital strength. We note that the share of HDFCB across most digital payment products (RTGS, NEFT, etc) is 15-26%, much higher than its systemic loan market share of ~7.5%.

Exhibit 3: The six largest private sector banks have command 56% of total credit card POS transactions by value and 55% by volume Mkt Share POS Amount of POS Mkt Share POS Credit Cards No of POS Average ticket FY18 transactions nos transactions transactions outstanding (m) transactions (m) size (INR) (%) (INRb) amount (%) Private Banks Axis Bank 4.5 127.5 9.1 439.9 9.6 3,449.4 Hdfc Bank 10.7 402.5 28.6 1,313.0 28.6 3,262.2 Icici Bank 5.0 188.8 13.4 514.0 11.2 2,722.3 Indusind Bank 0.8 26.4 1.9 154.5 3.4 5,845.5 Kotak Mahindra Bank 1.5 35.3 2.5 106.4 2.3 3,013.3 Yes Bank 0.3 6.9 0.5 18.9 0.4 2,727.1 Private Banks Total 22.7 787.5 56.0 2,546.6 55.5 3,503.3 PSU Banks State Bank of India 6.3 210.5 15.0 764.7 16.7 3,633.0 Punjab National Bank 0.3 6.3 0.4 13.4 0.3 2,116.8 Bank of Baroda 0.1 4.0 0.3 9.7 0.2 2,407.0 PSU Banks Total 6.7 220.8 15.7 787.8 17.2 2,719.0 Grand Total 37.5 1,405.1 100.0 4,589.5 100.0 3,266.3 Source: MOSL, Company

Taking innovation beyond products – strategic partnerships have helped control costs even in investment phase Many private sector banks have taken a balanced approach while targeting growth to control costs. This is in contrast to the growth on the back of traditional brick and mortar expansion. An example is RBL Bank, which has used a mix of branch expansion to sell asset products, BC partnerships to expand microfinance book, partnerships with e-commerce companies and with BAF to expand cards business, and digital platform to sell liabilities. Similarly, Federal Bank has expanded its retail/SME book outside Kerala on the back of loans originated by its NBFC subsidiary, Fedfina. This has kept costs under control and has maintained profitability at robust levels even during the investment phase for new age banks like RBL Bank.

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Market share loss has accelerated for public sector banks; we expect the trend to continue Public sector banks have been struggling with low profitability and capitalization challenges, coupled with resistance to organization-level changes and unionization of employees. The government announced a big bang recapitalization plan in FY18 to support the growth requirements of public sector banks; however, owing to continued challenges on asset quality, most of the capital will be used to meet provisioning requirements and the public sector banks will still be bereft of growth capital. In general, while private sector banks have led the change, public sector banks have been followers that have adapted only when it is inevitable. We note that over FY14-17, six of the largest private sector banks have collectively gained 450bp loan market share, which is one of the sharpest gains ever.

Exhibit 4: Market share has continuously shifted to private sector banks* Market share (%) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Major Private Banks Axis Bank 3.8% 4.1% 4.5% 4.7% 5.1% HDFC Bank 5.0% 5.4% 6.2% 7.0% 7.6% ICICI Bank 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9% 5.9% IndusInd Bank 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% Kotak Bank 0.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% Yes Bank 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.7% 2.4% Major PSU Banks Bank of Baroda 6.5% 6.3% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% Punjab National Bank 5.7% 5.6% 5.5% 5.3% 5.6% State Bank of India 25.7% 24.5% 24.6% 23.7% 21.9%

Source: MOSL, Company *Historical data has been restated for SBIN to account for merger of its associates pre FY17 **FY18 PSU Bank numbers are estimates

Asset quality challenges have restricted choice of lending Public sector banks are saddled with high levels of balance sheet stress – capital infusion is needed frequently to ensure operational existence, particularly as business growth and profitability remains under pressure. Also, FY19 being the year of full compliance with Basel-III regulations, there will be continued pressure on public sector banks to meet the capital norms and stick to safer low-yield lending. Resolution through IBC process has been getting delayed owing to several litigations, despite the law prescribing a timeline of maximum 270 days for the resolution process. The RBI’s revised asset quality framework dispensing all asset quality dispensations has further put pressure on corporate banks; as a result, private sector banks have reported very high NPL levels in 4QFY18 (results of public sector banks awaited).

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Exhibit 5: PAT market share has shifted rapidly to private Exhibit 6: Private sector banks have consistently sector banks demonstrated better profitability (RoE of coverage universe)

Private Banks PSU Banks Private Banks PSU Banks 118.5% 121.0% 17.9% 17.4% 16.6% 16.4% 16.3% 16.0% 15.5% 14.5% 71.8% 71.7% 13.9% 68.9% 13.8% 68.0% 65.1% 12.5% 60.6% 12.1% 53.8% 11.1% 10.8% 50.1% 49.9% 10.2% 46.2% 9.1% 39.4% 34.9% 32.0% 31.1% 28.3% 28.2% 4.2% 4.2% -18.5% -2.0% -21.0% -1.5% FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Source: MOSL, Company Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 7: Private sector bank stocks have outperformed public sector bank stocks across cycles

Private Banks PSU Banks 3,499 3,622 2,336 3,110 2,420 2,512 2,689 3,342 2,443 1,186 10,110 12,285 7,486 7,767 5,134 4,335 3,554 3,664 2,943 1,103

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Source: Company, MOSL

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IT – Staring at Phase -3 of Value Migration?

 For the best part of the last decade, the Indian IT services industry basked in the glory of low-cost talent, offering services 40-60% cheaper, with admirable flexibility to their global clients. It was the answer to large developed market clients’ need to optimize their IT spending. Championed by local and MNC peers alike, the model stabilized, and then, growth rates began to wane.  Fast forward to today’s era – clients’ spending pattern has moved to the duality of: [1] optimizing IT spends on existing programs further by use of cloud, automation, AI, RPA and SaaS technologies; and [2] investing these savings towards their Digital transformation.  As a result of the above, the pie of bread-and-butter services for the industry has been directly hit, and the new services that provide growth opportunity are not moving the needle as much, thanks to low base. Besides, the new models are significantly deviant from status quo, requiring companies to embrace bold moves such as cannibalizing existing streams of cash generation, resetting to a lower profitability (at least in the interim) and actively chasing acquisitions.  In this context, we witness the three phases of Value Migration, starting from value inflow benefiting the regime of low cost sourcing route to IT spending optimization to value outflow towards models built on the combination of automation, cloud and digital technologies. Phase 1: VALUE INFLOW  Through the last decade and the early part of the current decade, Indian IT reveled in the high growth trajectory (barring a brief period amid the Global Financial Meltdown (GFM), driven by cost-led value migration from developed market MNC providers to India-origin providers (IOPs). India enjoys ~60% market share of the low cost sourcing market and 15% of the global Services market. It has employed ~4m people directly in the process, contributing 7.7% to GDP and 49% to services exports.  Indian IT’s global penetration saw sustained momentum in the last couple of decades in the internet era, which allowed the high-scale, low-cost talented supply out of India to cater to the IT services demand in a relatively efficient manner. The industry, thus, ensured: [1] world class processes in delivery, led by Mr Narayana Murthy's Infosys, and [2] increased flexibility for clients, which was a refreshing change from the limited room to maneuver in existing large multi- year IT contracts.

Exhibit 8: It took the industry only 13 years to grow exports from

Total Exports (USD b) YoY (%) 38.3 33.3 33.3 32.6 28.8 26.3 19.3 16.0 14.9 13.1 12.7 10.2 12.2 5.6 7.3 7.6

7 8 10 13 18 24 31 40 46 50 59 69 76 86 97 108 117 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Source: Company, MOSL

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Exhibit 9: IT has been a major source of urban employment in the country

Number of people employees (m)

3.52 3.69 3.86 3.05 3.29 2.54 2.77 1.96 2.20 2.29 1.29 1.62

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 10: The economics of offshore speak for themselves – and Indian IT supplied the requisite talent Offshore economics 100% onsite Offshore Resources allocation % Onsite 100 30 Offshore 0 70 Hourly Billing rates on average (USD) 70 70 Onsite 20 20 Offshore Cost of project 7000 3500 Savings with offshore 50.0% Source: Company, MOSL

Phase 2: VALUE STABILITY The Indian IT industry went on to reach the stability phase once the market share gains and profit margins started to settle. Competitive intensity increased and started to weigh on the industry’s profitability – demonstrated in the trend across margins and RoICs amidst a weakening INR, which was a key tailwind.

Exhibit 11: Decline in margins despite a favorable movement of the INR during this period Top-5 EBITDA margin (%) INR / USD

65.7 67.1 60.8 61.2 54.5 48.2

25.0 25.5 26.9 25.9 24.8 24.1

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Source: Company, MOSL

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Exhibit 12: The trend of Declining RoICs has been common across top-tier firms except TCS

ACN RoIC (%) CTSH RoIC (%) 193.4 181.6 60.8 62.7 156.4 58.0 50.9 41.4 86.9 29.5 68.0 66.6

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

INFO RoIC (%) TCS RoIC (%) 73.4 62.5 68.4 68.0 58.0 62.6 56.6 56.1 53.8 48.5 49.2 44.0

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

Phase 3: VALUE OUTFLOW From the standpoint of the end user of technology services, the changing priorities are clearly visible. These were drivers of greater efficiencies in running the business and enablers of their web avatars in the early years of the internet era. But that is now set to change, and the drivers of this change are the following:  The large spenders of IT have largely matured in the adoption of their low cost global delivery network model. The next level of savings in these services is being offered by Automation of manual efforts, making location irrelevant.

Exhibit 13: Commoditization of the traditional model evidenced in declining realizations

Realization Indexed at 100 INFO (blended adjusted for onsite shift) 102 TCS (quarterly reported adjusted for TCS Japan)

99

96

93

90 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 Source: Company, MOSL

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Exhibit 14: Plummeting headcount growth has been an imperative compelled by the changing model, apart from low business growth

Source: Company, MOSL

 As far as the IT infrastructure goes, Cloud has ushered the concept of sharing economy, and consequently, savings from doing away with the need to own servers, etc.  Efficiencies thus realized already have an avenue for redeployment in the form of Enterprises’ Digital transformation. These technologies have also bred disruptive new competition, necessitating change in clients’ technology systems, business operations and also strategies – by impacting areas from IT infrastructure to business intelligence to customer interactions. Digital transformation is the imperative to survive the threat from born-in-the-cloud organizations.

This shift of customer priorities in spending has been quantified by NASSCOM and Mckinsey in their “Perspective 2025” study, depicted below:

Exhibit 15: 15-25% of the traditional services pie expected to shrink

Source: NASSCOM, MOSL

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The challenge for Indian IT: Indian IT has ridden other waves in the past, which involved bringing new services offshore, and meant net increase of addressable market. The key differences this time around are:  It is their pie that is shrinking to feed into Digital. So, even if they are right up there with their Digital offerings, they have to replace traditional stream revenues with new ones.  Catering to the Digital demand requires more proactive consultative selling as opposed to reactive selling through RFP response, implying a paradigm shift that needs to be successfully transcended.

Below are some of the anecdotes around Digital business imperatives, and this is not an exhaustive list:  Digital is all about consultative proactive selling, and not about responding to RFPs  The deal sizes are negligible to start with, and then they grow on to become bigger. But you don’t have USD50-100m deals here. In the traditional business, large deals undergo some contraction with every renewal.  The business models will depend upon the solution: fixed price, license (for own IP), linked to client outcomes, subscription (usage)-based, etc.  Buyer organization is different – CXO, marketing team, supply chain team, product team, etc., and not just the CIO organization.  Onsite centricity is an imperative for the clients to gain comfort in the business.  Automation is an absolute must – people-centric model will transform to people + software combine.  A capability in Agile development and iterative solution building is the approach – fail-fast. Traditional methodology was longer-term contracts that were delivered fail-proof.

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Value Migration from Oil to Gas – Green Metamorphosis 2.0

In the last few years, rising pollution has been at the forefront of the policy making and judicial activism in India. The focus on increasing penetration of gas becomes all the more important considering that in the latest study of the World Health Organization (WHO), half of the 20 most polluted cities globally are Indian. Policy initiatives in exploration and production (E&P) like Hydrocarbon Exploration Licensing Policy (HELP), Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP), premium pricing for gas production from difficult fields, and National Data Repository among others are expected to boost domestic gas production by ~10% YoY for the next 3-4 years. The government’s thrust on infrastructure has been taken well by LNG importers, who have announced several LNG import facilities in the future. All combined, we expect a bright future for gas companies (transmission, city gas distribution and LNG importers) in India. Exhibit 16: India is home to 10 most polluted cities in the world

KHANNA, #16 114 LUDHIANA, #12 122 DELHI, #11 122 GWALIOR, #2 176 PATNA, #6 149

RAIPUR, #7 144

* RANK, # PM2.5 (µg/m3) Source: WHO, MOSL

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Exhibit 17: Domestic gas production has started rising Domestic gas availability 3% increase, expected to KG D6 production rise further at ~10% for rise and fall 140 127 next 3-4 years 110 109 95 86 87 90 85 85 87 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Source: PPAC, MOSL

Huge unmet demand; lack of infrastructure a big constraint, but catching up Against projected demand of 494mmscmd in FY18, India’s consumption was 143mmscmd. The major bottleneck in realizing projected demand has been lack of sufficient infrastructure – gas production, LNG import and gas pipelines. However, the government’s focus on battling pollution backed by policy initiatives like viability gap funding for trunk pipelines and launch of bidding for large number of geographical areas for city gas distribution among others is likely to ensure sharp rise in demand.

We find India in the same scenario as China was more than a decade back. As a result of focus on gas consumption, China has witnessed a CAGR of 10.1% in gas consumption during FY90-18. Increasing focus on gas in India is expected to result in a similar fast-paced growth in gas consumption.

India has lagged behind China in terms of gas consumption INDIA CHINA

Dismal growth of India’s gas consumption China has witnessed far stronger growth

250 194.7 700 649.3 200 560 150 420 Consumption Consumption 100 CAGR of 6.1% Impact of KG 280 CAGR of 10.1% D6 production 50 140

0 0

FY90 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY90 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16

FY18E FY18E Source: BP Statistical Review, PPAC, MOSL Source: BP Statistical Review, MOSL

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Exhibit 18: Pipeline infrastructure development in India Length Capacity Pipeline Entity Remarks (Kms) (mmscmd) Work on ~450km Kochi- Kochi-Kottanad-Bengaluru-Mangalore GAIL 1,056 16 Mangalore ongoing Dabhol-Bengaluru Spur Lines, Phase-2 GAIL 302 16 Surat-Paradip GAIL 2,112 74.81 Revoked Jagdishpur-Haldia-Bokaro-Dhamra GAIL 2,539 16 In progress (Phase-I, 755 Km, 7.44 mmscmd Capacity) Mallavaram-Bhilwada GSPC India Transco 2,042 78.25 Work ongoing in minor sections Mehsana-Bathinda GSPC India Gasnet 2,052 77.11 Work ongoing in minor sections Bathinda-Jammu-Srinagar GSPC India Gasnet 725 42.42 Work ongoing in minor sections Kakinada-Vizag-Srikakulam AP Gas Distribution Corporation 391 90 Ennore- Nellore Gas Transmission India Pvt. Ltd. 250 36 Ennore- Tuticorin IOCL 1,385 84.67 Jaigarh-Mangalore H-Energy 635 17 Total 13,489 Source: PPAC, MOSL

Exhibit 19: Upcoming LNG facilities Capacity Company Location Project type Completion by Remarks (mmtpa) Petronet LNG Dahej 2.5 Brownfield Early 2019 GSPC/Adani Mundra 5.0 Greenfield Late 2018  Delayed due to incomplete pipeline IOCL Ennore 5.0 Greenfield 2019 H-Energy Jaigarh 4.0 FSRU Late 2018 Swan Energy Jafrabad 5.0 FSRU Late 2019  In partnership with Mitsui, GSPL, Gujarat Maritime Board Adani Dhamra 5.0 Greenfield 2020 HPCL/Shapoorji Chhara 5.0 Greenfield NA H-Energy Kolkata Greenfield NA AP/Shell/VGS Kakinada 2.5 Greenfield NA

LNG Bharat Krishnapatnam 2.5 Greenfield NA Source: Industry, MOSL

New avenues like small scale LNG (ssLNG) yet to take off in India China consumes ~18mmtpa of ssLNG. India is yet to latch on to the bandwagon. However, Shell, Petronet LNG and H-Energy have already announced their intentions. We expect LNG trucking, off-grid applications as well as marine bunkering to open up 7-10mmtpa of new market (35-50% of the current LNG consumption) in India in the next 5-10 years.

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Huge scope of ssLNG in India INDIA CHINA

LNG capacity growth in India (mmtpa) LNG capacity growth in China (mmtpa)

India's LNG capacity China's LNG capacity A total of four LNG 51.6 terminals currently: 30.0 Dahej- 15mmtpa Dabhol- 5mmtpa Hazira- 5mmtpa Kochi- 5mmtpa 5.0 3.7

CY04 CY17 CY04 CY17

Growth in LNG vehicles in China

LNG vehicles ('000) LNG stations 3,000

CAGR of 87% in LNG vehicles

300 0.3 4

2006 2017 ssLNG consumption in China

Annualized (mmtpa) 17.8 18.6 15.6 16.8 13.8 14.1 13.3 13.7 11.5 11.5 11.0 9.2 Jul-16 Jan-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Apr-16 Feb-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Mar-16 May-16

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Winners and losers With enabling policies, increase in gas supply and improvement in pipeline infrastructure, the whole gas sector is likely to benefit – producers, importers, transmission companies and city gas distribution companies (CGDs). The biggest beneficiary would be the importers, as demand increases and domestic gas production is unlikely to keep pace. The only listed firm, Petronet LNG would be the biggest beneficiary. This would be followed by CGDs. In the ninth bidding round, the regulator has put a total of 86 geographical areas (GAs) on the block. Award of these GAs would help provide an answer for long-term volume growth for companies. Access to gas and increasing number of GAs would also enable inter-city CNG travel.

Our preference would be Indraprastha Gas, Gujarat Gas, and then, Mahanagar Gas. Transmission companies are also likely to benefit in the longer term. However, there is uncertainty on tariff regime, going forward. It remains to be seen if this would buoy their return ratios or serve the larger aim of achieving higher penetration of gas through lower tariffs.

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Consumer: Jewelry – massive Value Migration unfolding; multiple tailwinds conspire to augment the trend

In our first theme report on Value Migration, we had highlighted the massive long term opportunity for branded jewelry players like Titan owing to several steps taken by the government on policy front and general thrust towards formalization of economy. The events of past fifteen months indeed reinforce our thesis. In fact, the investment case is actually becoming stronger.

 Core drivers remain relevant: In our thematic report, we had highlighted factors like changing consumer preferences, rising disposable incomes, and widely prevalent under-caratage in the industry due to which Titan was successfully playing on the trust factor. Also, there were macro factors like stringent norms being introduced on cash purchase, 1% excise duty on gold jewelry and PAN card requirement for jewelry purchases above INR200,000 that were expected to aid growth. These factors continue to be relevant.

 Additional growth drivers have emerged since then: a) GST implementation has further tilted the balance in favor of organized jewelry players. Moreover, low rate of GST at 3% means that the organized sector players following the rules are not at a disadvantage compared to unorganized players. At the same time, better tracking of gold from import stage as part of the GST process has ensured continued rapid conversion. b) More stringent rules are being introduced. More rigorous provisions under PMLA (Prevention of Money Laundering Act) and mandatory hallmarking are likely to be implemented soon, putting the unorganized players at a further disadvantage. c) Recent developments in the sector: Fallouts of the Nirav Modi scam have been (a) far lower credit availability for smaller/unorganized players – with most of its loans in the form of ‘gold on lease’, Titan is anyway minimally affected, but also has excellent credit history and reputation; and (b) lower availability of diamonds for the small/ unorganized players – not a constraint for a reputed jeweler like Tanishq (Titan). d) Company initiatives: Titan has also increased its proportion of sales from (i) wedding jewelry – until recently, an unexplored segment for the company and a market that is at least 3x that of the high value diamond jewelry that was its earlier forte; and (ii) gold exchange schemes, which have resulted in massive footfalls (40% of sales in recent quarters) – 50% of its customers are first-time customers as a result of schemes like these. It has expanded its store addition targets (40 stores in FY19; the highest ever, with likely similarly high store openings, going forward).

As a consequence, the management has also exuded confidence and guided for strong medium to long term growth.

14 May 2018 18 Thematic | Value Migration

 Management guidance: In May 2017, the management of Titan guided for 2.5x growth for its jewelry business (sales of INR100b in FY17), quantifying the tremendous growth opportunity over the next few years – the 2.5x growth target implies a revenue CAGR of 20% over FY17-22.  Titan’s share of the total market is still miniscule: Titan’s share of the jewelry business in India at ~5% in FY17 (INR100b sales in the INR2t jewelry market in India) is still miniscule, leaving ample room for growth ahead of the guidance.

Guidance is increasing as well, indicating rising management confidence led by improving visibility  From the initial guidance of 2.5x growth for its jewelry business in May 2017 (sales of INR100b in FY17, implying a revenue CAGR of 20% over FY17-22), in April 2018, the company revised its guidance to 2.5x growth over FY18-23.  The revised guidance not only adds another percentage point to revenue CAGR over FY18-22, but also extends it by another year – an indication of the increased management confidence on growth prospects.

Exhibit 20: Initial management guidance as on May 2017 Exhibit 21: Revised management guidance as on April 2018

Management guidance on jewelry business (INR b) Management guidance on jewelry business (INR b) 256 330

103 133

FY17 FY22E FY18 FY23E

Exhibit 22: Share of organized segment has grown from 10% in FY09 to 30% in FY17 Exhibit 23: Tanishq leads the listed jewelry pack

2008-09 (%) 2016-17 (%) Net sales (INR b) Titan PC Jeweller TBZ 90 103 93 70 85 87 85 79 70 73 63 53 30 40 30 10 19 14 17 18 17 17

Organised gems and jewellery Unorganised gems and jewellery FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

14 May 2018 19 Thematic | Value Migration

Exhibit 24: Titan’s market cap expanded at 34.5% CAGR Exhibit 25: Market opportunity for Titan, going forward

Titan's Market cap (INR b) Market Size (INR b) 1,500

863

300 41

2008 2018 High Value Diamond Jewellery Wedding Jewellery

Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 26: Momentum in jewelry sales growth to continue till FY20 – expected 3-year CAGR of 24%

Jewelry sales (INR b) 197

103

FY17 FY20E

Source: Company, MOSL

No increase in market size, but market share is increasing According to World Gold Council (WGC), despite jewelry demand being flattish or declining for three of the past four quarters ended 1QCY18 (which is 4QFY18, and reflects full year financial year data) and a decline in tonnage in the full year, FY18 (519T jewelry sales v/s 524T in FY17, and 679T total demand – which includes investment as well – against 690T in FY17). Industry sales (calculated by multiplying tonnage with average domestic selling price) are likely to decline 2.2% in terms of jewelry sales in India in FY18 and decline 2.8% in terms of total gold sales in India. Yet, Titan has reported ~25% growth in its jewelry segment sales in FY18, which has resulted in a market share gain of around 140bp to around 6.4% in FY18.

14 May 2018 20 Thematic | Value Migration

Exhibit 27: Jewelry tonnage declined 1% in FY18 Exhibit 28: Total tonnage declined 1.6% in FY18

Jewelry tonnage Total tonnage

690 524 519 679

FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18

Source: WGC, MOSL Source: WGC, MOSL

Exhibit 29: Calculated jewelry sales declined 2.2% in FY18 Exhibit 30: Calculated gold sales declined 2.8% in FY18 Jewelry sales (INR t) Gold sales (INR t)

2.05 1.55 1.52 1.99

FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18

Source: WGC, MOSL, Bloomberg Source: WGC, MOSL, Bloomberg

14 May 2018 21 Thematic | Value Migration

N O T E S

14 May 2018 22 THEMATIC/STRATEGY RESEARCH GALLERY

Explanation of Investment Rating Investment Rating Expected return (over 12-month) BUY >=15% India Strategy | Review 4QFY18 SELL < - 10% NEUTRAL > - 10 % to 15% UNDER REVIEW Rating may undergo a change NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation *In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.

Disclosures: The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).

Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOSL is a subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. (MOFSL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on www.motilaloswal.com. MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Metropolitan Stock Exchange Of India Ltd. (MSE) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) & National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products. Details of associate entities of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited are available on the website at http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf

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MOSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relative may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. MOSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report. Research Analyst may have served as director/officer, etc. in the subject company in the last 12 month period. MOSL and/or its associates may have received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.

In the last 12 months period ending on the last day of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report, MOSL or any of its associates may have: a) managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report, b) received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report, c) received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report. d) Subject Company may have been a client of MOSL or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.

MOSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. To enhance transparency, MOSL has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

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Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022-3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com. Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 3080 1000. Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal, Email Id: [email protected], Contact No.:022-30801085.

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