Methodology to Determine Annual Permitted Take for Metropolitan Adelaide from the River Murray

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Methodology to Determine Annual Permitted Take for Metropolitan Adelaide from the River Murray Methodology to determine annual permitted take for Metropolitan Adelaide from the River Murray Version: 1.2 Date: 11/02/19 Status: Final © 2019 SA Water Corporation. All rights reserved. This document may contain confidential information of SA Water Corporation. Disclosure or dissemination to unauthorised individuals is strictly prohibited. Uncontrolled when printed or downloaded. Methodology to determine annual permitted take for Metropolitan Adelaide from the River Murray SA Water Document Controls Version History Version Date Author Comments 0.1 22/01/18 Julian Whiting First draft for comment 0.2 22/03/18 Julian Whiting Revised draft for comment 1.0 23/04/18 Julian Whiting Final 1.1 03/01/19 Steve Kotz / Revised final Ashley Kingsborough 1.2 01/02/19 Marc Jericho Revised final 1.3 11/02/19 Marc Jericho Revised final This document and supporting modelling information is provided only for the purposes of demonstrating compliance with the permitted take for metropolitan Adelaide. Permission must be sought from SA Water to use for all other purposes. Version 1.0 14/05/18 Final Page 2 of 39 For Official Use Only Uncontrolled when printed or downloaded Contents 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 7 1.1 Objectives ..................................................................................................... 7 1.2 Outline ........................................................................................................... 7 2 Background ....................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Metropolitan Adelaide water supply .......................................................... 8 2.1.1 Annual permitted take............................................................................. 8 2.1.2 Annual actual take .................................................................................. 8 2.2 Modelling metropolitan Adelaide take from the River Murray ................. 9 2.2.1 Background to the HOMAXP model ........................................................ 9 2.2.2 Preference of supply source.................................................................. 10 3 Surface water modelling for WMLR catchments ........................................... 12 3.1 Modelling overview .................................................................................... 12 3.2 Available models ........................................................................................ 12 3.3 Climate data ............................................................................................... 12 3.4 Intakes to WMLR storages........................................................................... 13 4 Demand modelling for metropolitan Adelaide ............................................ 15 4.1 Background ................................................................................................. 15 4.2 Historical data used for model calibration ............................................... 15 4.2.1 Monthly demands .................................................................................. 15 4.2.2 Population data ..................................................................................... 17 4.3 Climate-adjusted demand model ............................................................ 18 5 Simulation of annual permitted take ............................................................. 20 5.1 Input data .................................................................................................... 20 5.1.1 Modelled demand ................................................................................. 20 5.1.2 Modelled intakes .................................................................................... 22 5.1.3 Forecast modelled demands and inflows ............................................ 23 5.1.4 WMLR reservoir target storage levels .................................................... 23 5.2 Total annual demand ................................................................................. 24 5.3 Available water from the WMLR storages................................................. 24 5.3.1 Environmental flows ............................................................................... 24 5.3.2 Net available intake to WMLR storages ............................................... 26 6 Calculation of annual permitted take ........................................................... 27 6.1 Modelling framework .................................................................................. 27 6.2 Permitted take methodology .................................................................... 27 6.3 Adjustments to meet metropolitan Adelaide’s long-term average permitted take .............................................................................................................. 29 6.3.1 Impacts of the River Murray Water Allocation Plan ............................ 29 6.3.2 Adjustment to annual permitted take .................................................. 30 6.4 Validation of permitted take modelling ................................................... 31 Methodology to determine annual permitted take for Metropolitan Adelaide from the River Murray SA Water 7 Conclusions...................................................................................................... 33 8 Abbreviations and acronyms ......................................................................... 34 9 References ....................................................................................................... 35 Appendix A HOMAXP schematic ....................................................................... 36 Appendix B Climate data .................................................................................. 37 Appendix C Metropolitan Adelaide Licence Area Population data .............. 38 Appendix D Environmental flow releases ......................................................... 39 List of figures Figure 2.1 Map showing the approximate supply area for metropolitan Adelaide licence, with WMLR storages and associated catchment areas, and River Murray offtakes ........................................................................................... 11 Figure 3.1 Time series of total annual natural intakes to the WMLR storages as modelled for the 1891–2016 water years, with average values for 1895–2008 and 2007–2016 shown ................................................................................ 14 Figure 3.2 Average monthly natural intakes to the nine WMLR storages as modelled for the 1891–2016 water years ................................................................... 14 Figure 4.1 Total monthly demand for the metropolitan Adelaide licence area for July 2007–June 2017 ........................................................................................... 16 Figure 4.2 Time series of total monthly demands alongside per capita monthly demands for July 2007–June 2017 ............................................................. 17 Figure 4.3 Time series comparison of observed per capita monthly demand and simulated demands from climate-adjusted demand model (2007–2017)19 Figure 4.4 Comparison between observed and predicted per capita monthly demand, with line of best fit shown .......................................................... 19 Figure 5.1 Monthly proportions of metropolitan Adelaide demand that represent total volumes supplied through MW and SRS pipelines .................................... 21 Figure 5.2 Average monthly third-party demands assumed for HOMAXP simulation 22 Figure 5.3 Monthly target storage levels for WMLR storages incorporated in HOMAXP simulation ..................................................................................................... 23 Figure 5.4 Total metropolitan Adelaide demand as used in the HOMAXP simulation 24 Figure 5.5 Total annual environmental flow releases, with average annual release under Basin Plan reference period included ............................................ 25 Figure 5.6 Annual modelled net intakes to WMLR storages with average annual net intake under Basin Plan reference period included (red line) ................ 26 Figure 6.1 Schematic showing relationships between key model components, model inputs and model outputs .......................................................................... 27 Figure 6.2 Annual deviations from average annual climate-adjusted demand for metropolitan Adelaide for the Basin Plan reference period (1895–2008)28 Figure 6.3 Annual deviations from average annual modelled net intake to WMLR storages for the Basin Plan reference period (1895–2008) ...................... 29 Figure 6.4 End-of-year (June) allocations for River Murray irrigators in South Australia 30 Figure 6.5 Annual permitted take shown as deviations from long-term average annual take ................................................................................................. 31 Version 1.0 14/05/18 Final Page 4 of 39 For Official Use Only Uncontrolled when printed or downloaded Methodology to determine annual permitted take for Metropolitan Adelaide from the River Murray SA Water Figure 6.6 Comparison between annual actual take and annual permitted take, with credit/debit against metropolitan Adelaide licence .............................. 32 List of tables Table 3.1 Summary of natural intakes to the nine WMLR storages as modelled in WaterCress
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